Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

SpyreX · Post Post #450 (ISO) » Tue May 17, 2011 3:55 pm

And now the claim woodoggy.

Papa Zito · Post Post #451 (ISO) » Tue May 17, 2011 4:01 pm

SpyreX wrote:*squeeze the juice*

We do not have enough.

Yeah I def need to read Faraday. I better do it before the modflip on ohnoeeees

wait Quadz is in this game? Well hell.

Faraday · Post Post #452 (ISO) » Tue May 17, 2011 4:07 pm

GreyICE wrote:

Zito just likes mislynching me, he's still town despite that. Still, hammer was Terrible.

refusing to believe you're this retarded.

zoraster · Post Post #453 (ISO) » Tue May 17, 2011 4:11 pm

Day 1 Vote Count

Amrun ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Faraday ( 1 ) GreyICE,

(L - 6 )

*** GreyICE ( 6 ) ***

Hoopla, SpyreX, Amrun, Faraday, Lady LambdaDelta, Papa Zito,

(L - 1 )

Hoopla ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Kise ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Lady LambdaDelta ( 2 ) quadz08, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

(L - 5 )

Papa Zito ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

PranaDevil ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

quadz08 ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Slaxx ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

SpyreX ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 2 ) Kise, Slaxx,

(L - 5 )

No Lynch ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Not Voting ( 2 ) PranaDevil, Debonair Danny DiPietro,
Total Votes ( 13 )

Deadline: May 29th at 11:00 EDT
0 Days Banked
With 13 able to vote, 7 needed to lynch.

Papa Zito · Post Post #454 (ISO) » Tue May 17, 2011 4:32 pm

So I read Faraday and then Grey's case.

Most of Grey's case is playstyle, and a couple of the non-playstyle points I disagree with. Like if the point of his existence is to out PRs then why auto-clear quadz. And why box himself in with so many town reads.

He posted a full town->scum list, how is that not evolving reads?

etc

So no I don't think Faraday's scum.

Debonair Danny DiPietro · Post Post #455 (ISO) » Tue May 17, 2011 4:45 pm

I know my backup said they liked the look of Hoopla but her using numbers as more of a guide than any other sort of analysis is just brutal to me.

SpyreX is reading town to me; LLD’s irrational Amrun comments actually read town to me in that I think she got wait too invested in that lynch.

Quadz is uber-lurking I’d like to see him dead; SSBF apparently is doing the same and so the same applies to him.

I wish I had some meta on Faraday and I think I’ll ask my crew to give him a solid read because he seems real lazy about things for someone who seems to get a lot of respect. I know how that is, but I’d like to know if its scummy for him or not.

GreyICE just spent a couple pages back pretty blatantly role-fishing; “if you were here what would you chose” kind of things; which wouldn’t be terrible if he used that information to draw some sort of conclusion but I really don’t think he did. And with the JK claim it looks just more and more obvious to me that he was just fishing to figure out roles to shut them down. It very much fits the jailkeeper claim but it seems pretty malignant in intent to me. I also think his AtE’s were fake in nature and this is the best course of action…

VOTE: GreyICE

zoraster · Post Post #456 (ISO) » Tue May 17, 2011 4:54 pm

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Amrun ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Faraday ( 1 ) GreyICE,

(L - 6 )

*** GreyICE ( 7 ) ***

Hoopla, SpyreX, Amrun, Faraday, Lady LambdaDelta, Papa Zito, Debonair Danny DiPietro,

(L - 1 )

Hoopla ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Kise ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Lady LambdaDelta ( 2 ) quadz08, Super Smash Bros. Fan,

(L - 5 )

Papa Zito ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

PranaDevil ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

quadz08 ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Slaxx ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

SpyreX ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 2 ) Kise, Slaxx,

(L - 5 )

No Lynch ( 0 )

(L - 7 )

Not Voting ( 1 ) PranaDevil,
Total Votes ( 13 )

7 Days Banked

GreyICE the Town Jailkeeper was Lynched

This game has banked 7 days.

Night has fallen. All actin submissions must be in by 23:00 EDT on Thursday, May 19th.

zoraster · Post Post #457 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 5:51 pm

Night 1 Results:

Amrun the Town Gunsmith was killed

Day 2 Vote Count

Debonair Danny DiPietro ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Faraday ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Hoopla ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Kise ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Lady LambdaDelta ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Papa Zito ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

PranaDevil ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

quadz08 ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Slaxx ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

SpyreX ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Super Smash Bros. Fan ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

No Lynch ( 0 )

(L - 6 )

Not Voting ( 11 ) PranaDevil, Hoopla, SpyreX, Faraday, Lady LambdaDelta, Papa Zito, Debonair Danny DiPietro, quadz08, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Kise, Slaxx,
Total Votes ( 11 )

Deadline: June 2nd at 23:00 EDT
7 Days Banked
With 11 able to vote, 6 needed to lynch.

DAY 2 Begins NOW!

Sorry about the delay, 23:00 is 20:00 my time and my grandfather was in town so I went out to dinner with him

SpyreX · Post Post #458 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 5:58 pm

Faaa.

I'll be doing some parsing soon. It'd be really awesome if someone came out with something awesome and damning on someone.

Hoopla · Post Post #459 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 6:10 pm

DDD, that hammer sucked. You could have at least waited for myself and others to come in and make a post. Nobody even asked Grey

why

he picked his role. Admittedly, I probably wouldn't have sided with Grey as town, but you completely shut down any outside chance of unearthing Grey's motivation for his play - he could have quite easily given clues to his alignment upon interrogation.

Amrun dying isn't a complete surprise to me. Scum could have played the "let her live, and try to mislynch her" angle, but it runs the risk of a confirmed townie creeping into the mix via her claim, OR that scum don't have gun roleclaims to fall back on. It also implies that the Roleblocker might be town, as blocking Amrun could have been a good play to earn a mislynch without information seeping into the game.

I'm highly suspicious of quadz, which I'll talk about soon. Just want to get this post on the board.

VOTE: quadz

Faraday · Post Post #460 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 6:34 pm

GreyIce you're fucking retarded.

Vote SSBF

I need to converse with my little birds a bit more but this is a very good vote.

Slaxx · Post Post #461 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 7:51 pm

Vote SSBF

Hoopla · Post Post #462 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 9:28 pm

I have some speculations about scum's probable role picks based on the confirmed knowledge we have now, but to begin with, I'm going to talk about the two major wagons of Day 1. Here are the vote counts at the height of each wagon;

Spoiler: Day 1 wagons

This game moved at a very rapid pace, and though chaotic at times, I think the outcome of Day 1 was locked into 2 or 3 options very early. The only realistic lynch candidates after the first major wagon were Amrun and GreyICE, and maybeeee quadz as a dark horse. You'll note that at the peak of the Amrun wagon, Grey was the only real competition for the Amrun wagon, and if it were to collapse for whatever reason, GreyICE would have to have been the obvious choice (and he was). What incentive does a scum player have to aggressively push the Amrun wagon and then fall back on the GreyICE wagon? You're now associated with both of these town wagons. You risk being labelled a key influence of a town wagon, twice. Why would scum need to do this when they weren't in

any

danger at all? If the Amrun wagon flopped, Grey was always going to pick up the disenfranchised voters. Wouldn't a much more reasonable position for scum to take, be sitting back, letting town get the blood on their hands and attacking each other the next day? Maybe even get a little a distancing going while it's safe?

Faraday, Lady Lambdadelta and DDD are the three players who feature on each wagon. Despite DDD's poor hammer, the fact he was late on each wagon at times where it wasn't necessary to do so as scum nets him the most town points. Faraday was a vocal proponent of both wagons, whilst Lady Lambdadelta had staggered contributions, favouring the Amrun wagon. My belief is that all three are town - I'm decently sure of this. This belief is reinforced by the fact Lady Lambdadelta and Faraday are both 6's, thus already having decent chances of being town. If a 6 is to be scum, I believe it to be Zito over Slaxx.

quadz, SSBF and Prana are the players I am most suspicious of based on this evidence. Let me talk about them a little more;

In comparison to the other top four, Prana has been yoyoing in and out of my peripheral vision. By and large he has been saying the right things, but there's one thing that doesn't sit very well with me that I need to revisit. His early clearance of the top four altogether was self-serving and I think unjustified when you consider how quadz and GreyICE were playing. It occurred to me upon a reread, that Prana's flipflop on this belief coincides with the increasing amount of attention being paid to GreyICE. His stated logic for this switch was his agreement with me that Amrun wasn't scum, thus implying there is at least one scum in the top four, or I must be scum. When he had town reads on those other three, but "doesn't buy Hoopla as town", he should have came to the conclusion that I was scum, or reneged his belief about the top draft picks. Instead of doing either, his day fizzled out without a vote, despite posting multiple times.

This is

precisely

the sort of stances scum would be taking in regards to the Amrun/Grey lynch. An aggressive, opportunistic push on a seemingly scummy player in Amrun (what scum wouldn't cash in on that?). Because he finds scumtells outside the top four, it can allow him to protect himself (and possibly another) by declaring them town and guiding the lynch elsewhere. He's reluctant to relinquish this stance, until it becomes obvious that the top player to be lynched is very likely going to be GreyICE, enabling him to subtly promote or allow the wagon on a top pick to succeed, yet not commit to the wagon and not get blood on his hands.

I wouldn't surprised with a Prana/quadz scumteam. My active lurking case still applies, and the fact his vote nestled on LL for almost the whole day is an even worse crime. I think my case on Prana makes a lot more sense if he were to have more at stake by town targeting the top four, ie; a scumbuddy there. I'm kind of surprised with how little attention quadz' has got for his play, which to me, is often a key indication of scum, especially when they can ill-afford to bus early in a game. And this game is no exception when you consider how much heat the top of the draft was under. Another wifom-based reason, is I think scum would be inclined to pick a mid/mid-high number as one of their picks.

If scum is to exist in the 1's, it is probably going to be SSBF, with SpyreX an outside chance. From my perspective, this has a decent chance of being true, but is subject to only one scum being amongst Kise/quadz/Prana, or no scum being in the 6's, which seems statistically unlikely. Comparatively, SSBF has lurked quite heavily, and when has posted, it's been about largely unimportant issues. He missed Amrun's roleclaim despite being suspicious of her, and barely had any thoughts about the top four at all, which is more indicative of a scum mindset if he were to have incentive to avoid incriminating such players.

He's been in a perpetual state of catch-up, which makes it harder to assess his play objectively, or even in comparison to others, but the lack of insight, and good chance of DDD being town, and us probably needing a scum in 1's makes him a key suspect. SpyreX has improved a bit more in my eye, but he's been very active, and I need more time to parse his posts in a more meaningful way. I'll also dedicate some time to the 6's, as we'll need to do this at some stage, but we really need to get that first scum down today, and I think Prana or quadz gives us very high odds.

Hoopla · Post Post #463 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 10:24 pm

For Faraday and Slaxx; is it weird that Kise, quadz and Prana all weren't on the Grey wagon? Share your thoughts.

Lady Lambdadelta · Post Post #464 (ISO) » Thu May 19, 2011 10:58 pm

Vote: SSBF

Kise · Post Post #465 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 1:54 am

VOTE SSBF. FOS DDD. FOS QUADZ...... FOS HOOPLA TOO.

Kise · Post Post #466 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 2:02 am

DDD: Terrible, terrible stances yesterday. sliding the 6th vote on Amrun, thinking you could get points for mislynching. That didn't work, so you witheld your vote until another mislynch was possible with Grey. Actually, you and Zito both didn't look into Grey until he was run up with votes. Zito took 20 minutes to iso him. You did a quick - and sloppy if I may say - summary of Grey's post. That was the most obvious MEH HAMMER I have seen this year.

PranaDevil · Post Post #467 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 6:02 am

Hoopla, just a few responses before I reread tomorrow (not attempting tonight, got a killer headache, so while I'll be around, I'm not going to do anything requiring tons of effort).

I didn't really flipflop, my opinions were always that the three scum were spread across the four groups (top 4, 9s, 1s, 6s), with one per group maximum. That the 9s became proven to not be scum meant they had to be elsewhere, and I don't think both Kise and Quadz are scum.

As far as my having a vote nowhere at the end, I was banking on a re-read before placing it anywhere. Then you all went and lynched obv-town while I was running a radio show and sleeping. (Seriously, DDD's vote was shit. GreyICE was obvtown by that point, and DDD had better explain that damned vote.)

And regarding the misrep in regards to this:

Hoopla wrote:In comparison to the other top four, Prana has been yoyoing in and out of my peripheral vision. By and large he has been saying the right things, but there's one thing that doesn't sit very well with me that I need to revisit. His early clearance of the top four altogether was self-serving and I think unjustified when you consider how quadz and GreyICE were playing. It occurred to me upon a reread, that Prana's flipflop on this belief coincides with the increasing amount of attention being paid to GreyICE. His stated logic for this switch was his agreement with me that Amrun wasn't scum, thus implying there is at least one scum in the top four, or I must be scum.
When he had town reads on those other three
, but "doesn't buy Hoopla as town", he should have came to the conclusion that I was scum, or reneged his belief about the top draft picks. Instead of doing either, his day fizzled out without a vote, despite posting multiple times.

Specifically the bolded. I don't believe I've ever had a town read on Quadz. Never had a town read on GreyICE, but didn't have a scum read on him either, and Kise I had felt was town. Also the post you linked to states that I didn't have a town read on Quadz. So you claiming I did isn't just wrong, but blatantly false. Don't make me have to change my town read on you Hoopla.

Kise · Post Post #468 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 6:12 am

Yes, change it.

SpyreX · Post Post #469 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 6:28 am

Spoiler: vote counts

A little more in depth VC's from D1. Some serious business tidbits at various points:

GreyICE ( 4 ) Papa Zito, SpyreX, Faraday Amrun,
Amrun ( 4 ) Lady LambdaDelta, SpyreX, Faraday Slaxx,
Lady LambdaDelta ( 3 ) quadz08, Super Smash Bros. Fan, Amrun, (L - 4 )
*** Amrun ( 6 ) *** Lady LambdaDelta, Faraday, Kise, PranaDevil, GreyICE, Debonair Danny DiPietro, (L - 1 )
*** GreyICE ( 7 ) *** Hoopla, SpyreX, Amrun, Faraday, Lady LambdaDelta, Papa Zito, Debonair Danny DiPietro, (L - 1 )

The first two, now confirmed town wagons, I'd be shocked and awed if there wasn't A scum that parked due to them having legitimate bite. This gets even awesomer when a.) I'm town and b.) I'm pretty sure LLD is town.

PZ/Faraday
Faraday/Slaxx

Now, them all being 6's is a little freakshow BUT (and my compatriots wanted me to reiterate their supreme desire to see Faraday lynched) there is absolutely a scum there: and I could easily see it being faraday.

Now, the LLD wagon at 3 isn't SLAM DUNK but the nature of how goofy that wagon is: SSBF, quadz. Both MAYBE but doubtful.

With the two fat wagons we've got duplicates in: LLD, Faraday, DDP. Again, LLD is town so Faraday/DDP.
In the Remainder: Kise, Prana, Hoopla, SpyreX, Papa Zito. Again, a scum here makes sense (although not as clear as some of the others). I'm still good vibrations on Kise so Prana/Hoopla/Zito.

So, breakdowns:
PZ/Faraday
Faraday/Slaxx
SSBF/quadz
Faraday/DDP
Prana/Hoopla/Zito

A faraday scum all but clears the 6's and makes me feel a lot better about DDP (which, in turn, makes me feel a bit worse about SSBF which, in turn, makes me feel a bit better about Quadz). Also, with Zito town via faraday scum we're looking at a Prana/Hoopla.

And, one of those two had one whole vote yesterday.

Of COURSE, I was really hoping/preferring for a GC to come out on Faraday and make this easy. Which leads me to my next point:

With GS and JK dead, I'm SERIOUSLY weighing out the pro's/cons of a down-the-line claimfest today in rapid succession. The GS dropping like it did I still say vehemently points at funny business in the top set - and, with the only available business being a scum-swap to try and hide it it could negate a scum-rb AND give direction to the N2 vig (if the N3 vig IS scum AND we mislynch/no vig/misvig we're in a poop sandwich).

Unvote, Vote: Faraday

PranaDevil · Post Post #470 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 6:59 am

Spyrex, that post is full of utter garbage, so much so I'm unsure where to start.

First, LLD isn't confirmed town by any stretch of the imagination, Quadz and SSBF being on it is meaningless, one of them could be scum bussing if it carries on, the only way she's confirmed town is if a 6 scum flips and it's not her, or it both Quadz and SSBF are scum (without going back through the thread, it could be that SSBF voted before GI unvoted).

That then throws out your groupings, as LLD has to be included.

As far as the GS dropping, YOU might view it as some uber powerful role, but it's not. I can see exactly why town would ignore it so high up, namely that in such a short game, the results don't help as much as other possible roles would if that's what you were after. You may only get chance to use it twice. If those two times hit a rolecop and goon cop, you get nothing. The only time it's beneficial is when you get no result, as you know that person cannot be scum. The other one is that people at the top who DID view it was greatly useful might let it drop in favour of not having them get killed while holding a useful role.

I just feel like you're trying to push points in that post that don't really have any bearing in truth, just stuff you've come up with that are opinions. Which is extremely different to hard and fast evidence.

Lady Lambdadelta · Post Post #471 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:12 am

PranaDevil wrote:

That then throws out your groupings
, as LLD has to be included.

FoS: Prana

SpyreX · Post Post #472 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:17 am

I didn't say LLD was confirmed town. You'll also notice I left myself out of there OHH SNAP.

That doesn't change LLD being town or me being town.

ITS JUST OPINIONS.

Yep. Ohh noooess.

And a GS getting a positive in the lower eschelons is GSM.

PranaDevil · Post Post #473 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:19 am

Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
PranaDevil wrote:

That then throws out your groupings
, as LLD has to be included.

FoS: Prana

Why? Because I pointed out that said groupings are meaningless when they are produced in such a way to almost be fact, when they're not and are ommitting posibilities? Nope, sorry.

Lady Lambdadelta · Post Post #474 (ISO) » Fri May 20, 2011 8:22 am

PranaDevil wrote:
Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
PranaDevil wrote:

That then throws out your groupings
, as LLD has to be included.

FoS: Prana

Why? Because I pointed out that said groupings are meaningless when they are produced in such a way to almost be fact, when they're not and are ommitting posibilities? Nope, sorry.

Hey! Here's a chance to discredit ALL of Spyrex's conclusions based upon ONE minor detail~!

Because me being left off his pairings list changes his conclusions entirely RIGHT~?

Because if I was on the list, I would totally be a top scum pick of Spy-kun's, RIGHT~?

Yeah. No. You're trying to discredit Spy-kun based on ONE minor detail that has NO BEARING on the rest of his reads.

That's scummy.