Prana wrote:Not entirely sure how you expect me to hammer a wagon I'm currently on. There wasn't an option to get a double voter role after all. But why is Kise free from being scum? I agree in that I don't feel he's scum, but being as you seem to be just claiming there's 1-2 scum in the top group, why is Kise given a pass?
Quadz is the obvious scum there though, and Amrun is going to flip scum anyway. GI isn't his partner, I'm not scum, and I don't feel Kise is scum, meaning we can dig the final one out of the 6s.
Because I think Kise is town *gasp*?
Prana wrote:
You mean like how Cop doesn't fall to the arse end of a list because of how good it is for town and... oh yeah. Nobody picked it in PYP 3, and I wound up with it in PYP 4 because it would have vanished again if I hadn't, and I was 14th. All it needs is number 1 thinking they'll be killed as they'll likely get a good role, and everyone beneath them thinking "Those above me will already have it".
Of course, Amrun is scum anyway, and Quadz is likely scum too, so it's all good.
You mean PYP 3 where there were 3 scum in the top 5? Or 4 with a Super Saint and an Inverter making them pick GS high as the other investigative role?
Oh wow, we have a roleclaim. Exciting stuff!
Hoop wrote:
My initial impression is that I believe it. Here is my reasoning;
If Amrun is scum, there are two options. She captured the Gunsmith role herself, or a scumbuddy above her captured the role and she is fakeclaiming that scum's role. The role-swap is a ridiculously risky move, given a Role-Cop exists, as well as if the real Gunsmith dies she's toast. Without a counterclaim, she is extremely likely a Gunsmith.
If Amrun is the top scum draft pick, it seems like an unrealistic role to burn their top pick on. Scum gain little from it other than blocking town from getting it, and it would be highly reasonable to believe the role is taken by then. Why risk it? The scum have much better options. And if Amrun has a scumbuddy above her, why didn't they take Gunsmith with a higher pick if they wanted to block town?
A much more likely explanation is that she is town. I'm pretty confident with this read. Gunsmith there makes little sense for scum.
Mostly I agree - as scum 2 I could see shooting for gunsmith to either grab it or parse down even further where it is what with that spot making partial sense for a vig and being high enough its going to avoid a GC. As #1? No.
(But wait until the end for SHOCKING REVELATIONS)
LLD wrote:GI, why would scum not want the GunSmith role?
Cause I see a few good reasons.
1)It helps scum find the vigs (and the goon cop?).
2)It looks significantly more townie that picking a Vig.
CONFIRMED ROLE DOES NOT EQUAL CONFIRMED ALIGNMENT.
If thats the goal Role Cop is a way better Risk/Reward pick IF that's the highest scum position. Don't get blinded by bloodlust.
hoop wrote:Can SpyreX, Prana and Faraday explain their town reads on Kise for me? Or if that has changed, I'd be curious to know.
Maybe its the other side of the coin but this:
So let's profile!
It seems as though the scum tend to spread their draft numbers a part in past games. In my low-number group, I'd say Prana or Smash Bros for mafia - make note of Smash's second number being low as well. Of course Smash's misfortune is that he was tied with someone else, but his second number indicates he had hoped to win in his 1's group by placing a low/3. There's likely scum among the 6 group as well.... 6, 9, Zito? Why would you play moderately high numbers?
While I dont agree with 100% makes a lot more sense than some of the other thought processes from that area.
And I like that post coming in. Not that it matters as much with the nature of the beast but I'd be 100% town sure on an SSBF-scum flip.
I'm not as excited about his later posts in the agree with department but still (and he's either absolutely scum crafty or there is a town slip below of magnitudes):
Kise wrote:@Spy: I don't know about shooting top 4, man. I think the good of a possible 4 town PRs working against scum outweighs the possibility of 3/4 (maximum) scum PRs. This will probably become a night war between the top half and the bottom half, depending on where everyone's head is at. History has proven that scum tend to spread out, so yes, I'd keep my guard up for any sides. The best thing in my opinion is to assess a player's actions and compare it to their place on the draft list, not the other way around.
Only three scum brosideon.
And, you of all players, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Its not like I've got absolute blinders on - because if the goal was just murder the top 4 why in the name of everything holy would you having lordship and dominion have a pass?
GI & Quadz especially and Prana have had the same song and dance. And its not a catchy tune.
We get things like thus:
GI wrote:Sorry Hoopla, I don't take these wagons seriously regardless of alignment. Go check pretty much any game of mine - I make fun of wagons on me and mine em for reads. Amrun even said as much. So you expecting me to do something I never do just reads fucking retarded. Not scum. Not town. Retarded. Pushing my lynch on it though is scum.
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p3047872
Yessir that's not seriously.
Or the new weird "I don't think Hoopla is town" / "I'm agreeing with everything Hoopla is saying." we're gettin from someone.
Hoopla wrote:
There have been a couple of things SpyreX has done that has irked me. Namely, his push on Amrun which I detailed earlier, as well as a couple of posts directed towards me which feel a little fake, especially because he knows how I play. His activity is fine, but he seems a little empty. His draft position gifts him a low base chance of being scum, but it has risen above that for me. Faraday has been hit and miss - I've agreed with several of his points, but his aggressiveness towards Amrun seems overdone; a shoddy imitation of his town game, as it were. He's hovering around neutral for his position. And of the top four, I think I trust Prana the most.
I want more from you because I need that analysis, but in conjunction. There hasn't been much fire in the directive sense. That's not good and it gets me twitchy.
GI wrote:DDD, Prana, hoopla, spyrex: you seem to have a consensus the JK would be the best scum role and their #1 pick. Is it really better than the vig?
I've never said that? Its up there, but I've never said definitively because there's some other pieces to it IN GENERAL:
GI wrote:
Okay, what roles do you two expect to be high picks for scum specifically?
N2 Vig, JK, Role Cop would be for strength. Gunsmith/Goon Cop depending on the makeup of the scum. N3 Vig is mostly a longshot and I'd really be surprised if the scum were playing the "just in case" game. Tracker would be a positional if they thought the others were taken overall.
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Now, here's the other side of the coin:
My compatriots have been yelling at me in unison about this Amrun business AND they had me turned around on it as of the claim. I left that vote on for the low-estimate up-end CC / hammer delicious prizes. Which didn't happen.
We're arguing the weight of number theory versus SHEER RAGE because hot damn they want a Faraday dead RIGHT NOW. Which I'm saying needs to be a GC target not lynch.
Unvote, Vote: GI