Team Mafia: Pick Your Power (Game Over)

[GreyICE]

The vigs are each one use only, and only on those specific nights. Making the players essentially no more than basic goons on any other night. They aren't all that powerful for scum. While in town's hands again, they're only one use, and there's much more chance of a misfire anyway.

Gunsmith doubles up for scum in that not only does it prevent the scum finding them, but it also means they can find (potentially) the town vigs, rolecop, goon cop, and thus off them if they need to.

Also, GI, keep up, I pulled my suspicion of Amrun ages ago. You asked what I expected to be high picks for scum. Just because I think that's what the scum would go for doesn't mean it IS what they went for. Obviously they didn't go for the Gunsmith otherwise Amrun wouldn't have it.

Okay, so whose your current top suspect?


@Kise: What's your thoughts on what scum would pick and why?

@Quadz: Same. Actually, what's your thoughts on other players, this game, Amrun's claim, how high gunsmith should be picked, what it says about scum in 1-5, basically anything. What's good setup speculation in your book?

[PranaDevil]

Quadz, because he was my second suspect earlier. But I refuse to vote him just yet as I want to reasses the game first, as I've already said. However today I've been putting my radio show together for tonight, so I've not had time.

[GreyICE]

Okay, this is a philosophical difference isn't it

And those are alignment neutral. Okay.

[SpyreX]

Not entirely sure how you expect me to hammer a wagon I'm currently on. There wasn't an option to get a double voter role after all. But why is Kise free from being scum? I agree in that I don't feel he's scum, but being as you seem to be just claiming there's 1-2 scum in the top group, why is Kise given a pass?

Quadz is the obvious scum there though, and Amrun is going to flip scum anyway. GI isn't his partner, I'm not scum, and I don't feel Kise is scum, meaning we can dig the final one out of the 6s.

Because I think Kise is town *gasp*?

You mean like how Cop doesn't fall to the arse end of a list because of how good it is for town and... oh yeah. Nobody picked it in PYP 3, and I wound up with it in PYP 4 because it would have vanished again if I hadn't, and I was 14th. All it needs is number 1 thinking they'll be killed as they'll likely get a good role, and everyone beneath them thinking "Those above me will already have it".

Of course, Amrun is scum anyway, and Quadz is likely scum too, so it's all good.

You mean PYP 3 where there were 3 scum in the top 5? Or 4 with a Super Saint and an Inverter making them pick GS high as the other investigative role?

Oh wow, we have a roleclaim. Exciting stuff!

My initial impression is that I believe it. Here is my reasoning;

If Amrun is scum, there are two options. She captured the Gunsmith role herself, or a scumbuddy above her captured the role and she is fakeclaiming that scum's role. The role-swap is a ridiculously risky move, given a Role-Cop exists, as well as if the real Gunsmith dies she's toast. Without a counterclaim, she is extremely likely a Gunsmith.

If Amrun is the top scum draft pick, it seems like an unrealistic role to burn their top pick on. Scum gain little from it other than blocking town from getting it, and it would be highly reasonable to believe the role is taken by then. Why risk it? The scum have much better options. And if Amrun has a scumbuddy above her, why didn't they take Gunsmith with a higher pick if they wanted to block town?

A much more likely explanation is that she is town. I'm pretty confident with this read. Gunsmith there makes little sense for scum.

Mostly I agree - as scum 2 I could see shooting for gunsmith to either grab it or parse down even further where it is what with that spot making partial sense for a vig and being high enough its going to avoid a GC. As #1? No.

(But wait until the end for SHOCKING REVELATIONS)

GI, why would scum not want the GunSmith role?

Cause I see a few good reasons.

1)It helps scum find the vigs (and the goon cop?).

2)It looks significantly more townie that picking a Vig.

CONFIRMED ROLE DOES NOT EQUAL CONFIRMED ALIGNMENT.

If thats the goal Role Cop is a way better Risk/Reward pick IF that's the highest scum position. Don't get blinded by bloodlust.

Can SpyreX, Prana and Faraday explain their town reads on Kise for me? Or if that has changed, I'd be curious to know.

Maybe its the other side of the coin but this:

So let's profile! It seems as though the scum tend to spread their draft numbers a part in past games. In my low-number group, I'd say Prana or Smash Bros for mafia - make note of Smash's second number being low as well. Of course Smash's misfortune is that he was tied with someone else, but his second number indicates he had hoped to win in his 1's group by placing a low/3. There's likely scum among the 6 group as well.... 6, 9, Zito? Why would you play moderately high numbers?

While I dont agree with 100% makes a lot more sense than some of the other thought processes from that area.

And I like that post coming in. Not that it matters as much with the nature of the beast but I'd be 100% town sure on an SSBF-scum flip.

I'm not as excited about his later posts in the agree with department but still (and he's either absolutely scum crafty or there is a town slip below of magnitudes):

@Spy: I don't know about shooting top 4, man. I think the good of a possible 4 town PRs working against scum outweighs the possibility of 3/4 (maximum) scum PRs. This will probably become a night war between the top half and the bottom half, depending on where everyone's head is at. History has proven that scum tend to spread out, so yes, I'd keep my guard up for any sides. The best thing in my opinion is to assess a player's actions and compare it to their place on the draft list, not the other way around.

Only three scum brosideon.

And, you of all players, I'm not sure what you're getting at. Its not like I've got absolute blinders on - because if the goal was just murder the top 4 why in the name of everything holy would you having lordship and dominion have a pass?

GI & Quadz especially and Prana have had the same song and dance. And its not a catchy tune.

We get things like thus:

Sorry Hoopla, I don't take these wagons seriously regardless of alignment. Go check pretty much any game of mine - I make fun of wagons on me and mine em for reads. Amrun even said as much. So you expecting me to do something I never do just reads fucking retarded. Not scum. Not town. Retarded. Pushing my lynch on it though is scum.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p3047872

Yessir that's not seriously.

Or the new weird "I don't think Hoopla is town" / "I'm agreeing with everything Hoopla is saying." we're gettin from someone.

There have been a couple of things SpyreX has done that has irked me. Namely, his push on Amrun which I detailed earlier, as well as a couple of posts directed towards me which feel a little fake, especially because he knows how I play. His activity is fine, but he seems a little empty. His draft position gifts him a low base chance of being scum, but it has risen above that for me. Faraday has been hit and miss - I've agreed with several of his points, but his aggressiveness towards Amrun seems overdone; a shoddy imitation of his town game, as it were. He's hovering around neutral for his position. And of the top four, I think I trust Prana the most.

I want more from you because I need that analysis, but in conjunction. There hasn't been much fire in the directive sense. That's not good and it gets me twitchy.

DDD, Prana, hoopla, spyrex: you seem to have a consensus the JK would be the best scum role and their #1 pick. Is it really better than the vig?

I've never said that? Its up there, but I've never said definitively because there's some other pieces to it IN GENERAL:

Okay, what roles do you two expect to be high picks for scum specifically?

N2 Vig, JK, Role Cop would be for strength. Gunsmith/Goon Cop depending on the makeup of the scum. N3 Vig is mostly a longshot and I'd really be surprised if the scum were playing the "just in case" game. Tracker would be a positional if they thought the others were taken overall.

-------

Now, here's the other side of the coin:

My compatriots have been yelling at me in unison about this Amrun business AND they had me turned around on it as of the claim. I left that vote on for the low-estimate up-end CC / hammer delicious prizes. Which didn't happen.

We're arguing the weight of number theory versus SHEER RAGE because hot damn they want a Faraday dead RIGHT NOW. Which I'm saying needs to be a GC target not lynch.

Unvote, Vote: GI

[Kise]

Oh 3/4 should have been conveyed to mean 3 scum PRs maximum out of the 4 of us in the top spot.

Unless he's cult, I can never read GI correctly in our games, sadly. I think it took balls for him to make some of the posts he's made, so that's where I have a lot of doubts as to whether I should follow this nagging scumread I have in my gut. Prana is the only top 4'er I'm sold on as town.

But I'm dying damn it, and I want to see this Smash-lynch go through.

[Kise]

Okay, this is a philosophical difference isn't it

And those are alignment neutral. Okay.

Yup. Can't say I feel enthusiastic about answering that question, as it obviously narrows down the possibilities of what I may or may not have picked as #1.... NUMBER ONE I SAID!

[SpyreX]

Ohhhhhh.

BOOO I thought that was a magnificent town slip there that could have sealed the deal.

Dude I'd be surprised for more than a few reasons if you actually died tonight.

[Kise]

I'm totally scummy and should be left alive for mislynching.

[SpyreX]

Thats the biggest one afterall.

(shhh)

[GreyICE]

Okay, this is a philosophical difference isn't it

And those are alignment neutral. Okay.

Yup. Can't say I feel enthusiastic about answering that question, as it obviously narrows down the possibilities of what I may or may not have picked as #1.... NUMBER ONE I SAID!

I'm curious as to what you'd think scum top picks would be. Not what town top picks would be.

Unless you'd like to alignment claim

That being said, I think you're having too damn much fun to be scum.

Huh.

Unvote

Papa Zito: Why are you voting for PranaDevil?

[GreyICE]

@SpyreX: I don't give a shit about votes on me until they get somewhere near 'I might give a fuck.' This one has enough marginal reads on it that I don't really care. What pisses me off is that no one is voting based on the idea that I'm the scummiest person in the thread, everyone is voting for me based on a number choice. So yeah. A giant 'bite me' from me to all y'all doing that. I guess it would have been more pro-town to pick six or one.

Hoopla has some good points. She'd have to. She's looking to convince smart people. I don't entirely buy her as town, but she's not a day 1 lynch.

[GreyICE]

Official message from the team genius:

The 6 neighborhood and the 1 neighborhood each contain 1 scum.

Discuss.

Offhand, I'm inclined to agree with her.

No one seems inclined to discuss this.

This is annoying me, and my team.

[SpyreX]

All that's saying is what's pretty much BEEN said with the additional piece of "Amrun and Hoop are town"

Which you proceed to disagree with directly above this post.

[GreyICE]

All that's saying is what's pretty much BEEN said with the additional piece of "Amrun and Hoop are town"

Which you proceed to disagree with directly above this post.

You're saying the additional piece, not me. Hoopla does not read like town much at all to me. Nor am I sure she's scum (or I'd be voting for her). She's currently confusing.

I'd love for some distinct input from her on who she thinks is town, what her reads are, whose townie and stuff. She has a lot of information, and is doing very little analysis with it.

[SpyreX]

Sorry, with either "The top 4 are all town" OR "Amrun and Hoop are town"

Considering how balls to the wall unlikely the first is I went with the second. My bad.

[GreyICE]

Sorry, with either "The top 4 are all town" OR "Amrun and Hoop are town"

Considering how balls to the wall unlikely the first is I went with the second. My bad.

Really? Fantastically unlikely?

Assuming scum pick 3 different numbers, X, Y, and Z, and assuming that all players pick from 1-9, the chances of a townie picking X is:
1-(8/9)^10

If a townie picked X, the chances of a townie picking Y is:
1-(8/9)^9

And Z,
1-(8/9)^8

Compounding those three probabilities gives us a probability of around 20%. This assumes, of course, perfect randomness, which this is not. Assuming townies used similar reasoning to scum to choose certain numbers, the odds could be as high as 30%.

You're quite the analyst. Why is it so fantastically unlikely?

[SpyreX]

You do not yet have a role. You must submit two numbers between 1-15 (X,Y) by PM to Zoraster by May 12th at 11:00am EDT. At this point, the draft order will be published, and you will submit the role you want to try for. The game itself will start May 15th.

[SpyreX]

So, with actually using whats there and what we've seen:

The only way there's no scum in the top end is IF scum picked 1,6,9. Period. Scum did not double up it just flat didn't happen.

[GreyICE]

So, with actually using whats there and what we've seen:

The only way there's no scum in the top end is IF scum picked 1,6,9. Period. Scum did not double up it just flat didn't happen.

And the odds of that are, based on random probabilities, around 20%. Based on the idea that people were probably thinking along similar lines, including scum, more like 30%. Nine of our Thirteen players picked 1,6,9. You say that it's fantastically unlikely that's the scum team's numbers. I say that I'm not going to rule it out.

Oh behavior, our three scummiest players are probably Quadz, SSBF, and Faraday. Faraday I agree is a job for the goon cop or the N2 Vig (my preference). I'll probably be voting one of Quadz or SSBF when I see what their next post is.

[Kise]

Do I have to call up the Make-a-wish foundation? Come OOON, gimme that Smash lynch!

[Kise]

If scum make up the top 4-5 section, I'd go for jailkeeping and vigs in order to help reduce the population. If scum drew in the 5-8 range, I'd go for leftover info roles since town would be selfish to pick good roles while at the top. The 9-13 range is kind of SOL, but a gamble may be had with something like tracker or, dunno.

[Kise]

Bah!

If scum make up the top 1-5 section

Fixed.

[SpyreX]

And the odds of that are, based on random probabilities, around 20%. Based on the idea that people were probably thinking along similar lines, including scum, more like 30%. Nine of our Thirteen players picked 1,6,9. You say that it's fantastically unlikely that's the scum team's numbers. I say that I'm not going to rule it out.

Oh behavior, our three scummiest players are probably Quadz, SSBF, and Faraday. Faraday I agree is a job for the goon cop or the N2 Vig (my preference). I'll probably be voting one of Quadz or SSBF when I see what their next post is.

Soo, you're saying 70-80% chance of scum being in the top. And that's based off "random probabilities" with a 1-9 range instead of the actual 66% higher range there was.

And yes, its not random. Some numbers have certain outcomes. However, that certainty when put in conjunction with the fact scum ARE picking different numbers makes it even more clear. I'd be a

little

surprised if it ends up being an obvious pattern (1,2,3) but I'd be far, FAR, FARRR more surprised if it was the one pattern that makes this work (1,6,9) which would mean scum are in the group you're in and have been playing teaparty around all day.

[Amrun]

Grey, my vote on you has nothing to do with numbers.g

[GreyICE]

Grey, my vote on you has nothing to do with numbers.g

Hence why I'm not lumping you into the 'worthless turkey' class of players with Hoopla and Faraday.