Chuck Season 1 - GAME OVER

[Ragnarokio]

VOTE: MBF

because people with quick bandwagons on them are sometimes scum

[Ragnarokio]

I know nothing about the flavour

[Ragnarokio]

Nope, nothing interesting has happened yet.

[Ragnarokio]

Nothing?
Hmmm - do you plan to do anything to help generate "something" or is your plan to wait and hope something happens without you being involved in it?

My plan is to find scum.

[Ragnarokio]

will do

[Ragnarokio]

L-2 is perfectly fine though.

[Ragnarokio]

Hello.

I am MarchHare. I am the best.

I will be leading today's lynch.

If you oppose this motion then speak now. Otherwise, shut the fuck up down the road.

Vote: ReaperCharlie.

I'm fine blindly following you as long as you sound capable enough. Is the ReaperCharlie vote serious?

[Ragnarokio]

Do you care to explain the reasoning behind it? I could try and guess, but I get the feeling your answer will be more fun.

[Ragnarokio]

What is it this time?

[Ragnarokio]

And how confident are you with that read?

[Ragnarokio]

And what's the basis of the read?

[Ragnarokio]

Because you were making bold claims that sounded interesting for a moment.

[Ragnarokio]

ooba hasn't done anything real yet.

[Ragnarokio]

I'm not voting mikeburnfire for anything he's done.

[Ragnarokio]

for now

[Ragnarokio]

I think that was a necessary discussion.

[Ragnarokio]

Aren't you helpful.

[Ragnarokio]

Ooba's second post and possible his first feel bad, potentially because of the way he hopped onto your joke as if it were an opportunity to say something and to make a vote. The fact that he followed up by doing nothing (although the game had barely begun), potentially made the whole thing together seem a little suspicious. He later through suspicion onto another person based on one post without commenting on any of the other things that had happened in the game.

All that together makes him look negative.

[Ragnarokio]

whats a donk?

[Ragnarokio]

I don't think the case is strong enough to warrant a vote yet.

[Ragnarokio]

What happened to your case on me?

[Ragnarokio]

Dana, MarchHare was advocating early scumtells, not denying them, your vote might better be placed on thor.

[Ragnarokio]

cool.

Unvote

Vote: Thor

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag - how does that make sense, and aren't you voting MikeyB still?

Dana's case on MarchHare seemed to be based around him saying day 1 scumhunting wasn't possible, or something similar, I was guessing he was referring to the exchange between you and him, where MarchHare said this:

Deep scum hunting comes on page one; looking back on my games there have been several instances where I've pegged scum within the first five pages and then let them slide based on later play.

And you said this:

Deeper scumhunting comes Day 2 and maybe late Day 1. Prior to that we have wagons for reasons that are weak but still valid.

It was a bad case anyway, since both of you are early aggressive players, looking to lynch right off the bat.

[Ragnarokio]

lol @ 4 votes on thor in the last 10 posts.

[Ragnarokio]

why is it strange?

[Ragnarokio]

I wouldn't have thought it was obvious >.>

[Ragnarokio]

I've also been sick of thor's innactivity this game.

[Ragnarokio]

Peregrine said that he was voting thor with the intention or pressuring him into posting more (Thus the phrase "More thor, not less thor"), but Thor was one of the most active players in the game, especially in comparison to peregrine, who had posted zero content. I was trying to stylishly taunt peregrine while pointing the spotlight in his direction, looking cool and laid back in the mean time.

[Ragnarokio]

Dana, could you share with us your feelings on MarchHare as the game progressed?

[Ragnarokio]

hello

[Ragnarokio]

Alright, I don't seem to quite understand your case on him. Could you explain it?

[Ragnarokio]

Sup?

Not much. Just trying to figure out what this thread is here for. I think it's some sort of game or something.

[Ragnarokio]

Would you respond to my request if i rephrased it as an attack?

[Ragnarokio]

D:

[Ragnarokio]

Do you have any serious suspicions or opinions, Peregrine?

[Ragnarokio]

this game is just filled to the brim with cool people.

@Peregrine: Any reason in particular you don't find anyone suspicious?

[Ragnarokio]

No, It doesn't, At most theres one serious point in there, and saturating one point on somebody with layers and layers of jokes isn't a great thing to do if you're expressing serious suspicion.

[Ragnarokio]

@

Dana:

Thor begins the bout between himself and MarchHare when he asks why MarchHare hadn't bandwagonned onto MBF with the rest of us (He was either at L-2 or L-3 at the time)

MarchHare calls it a bad wagon, and thor pushes for more information. MarchHare and him have a small back-and-forth where thor tries to figure out why MarchHare doesn't find MBF scummy, but a lot of talking and not much information is gained. MarchHare has a gut-based town read on MBF.

Thor says that deeper scumhunting occurs later in the game, and MarchHare says that deep scumhunting can happen at the beginning of the game. MarchHare is advocating the ooba wagon though not as loudly as thor is advocating the MBF wagon.

You, at this point, vote MarchHare with the reasoning not really matching up with anything MarchHare has said. You say that MarchHare is trying to "make people think that we can't find scum on page x", seemingly indirectly quoting what thor said earlier. MarchHare was advocating an ooba lynch and explicitly said that deep scumhunting was possible on page 1 prior to this.

@ MarchHare
Just trying to put some pressure on someone with at least a little reasoning. I hate your repeated attempts to make us think we can't find scum on page x.
unvote vote: MarchHare

You later expanding on your vague vote and the reasoning seemed to change a lot with a new wording.

Your attempt to stop any cases from forming by defending players from the inevitably weak attacks made by others is much scummier. We can find scumtells this early in the game, and convincing ourselves that we can't hurts the town.

You still have an evident lack of knowledge on MarchHare's opinions, especially the "we can find scumtells this early in this game", since that's essentially echoing MarchHare's opinion, not contradicting it. Attempting to stop cases from forming is something vague and probably wrong. The only case MarchHare spent time refuting was the RVS wagon that put MBF to L-2, and that was when thor tried to push him into joining it. That's not exactly trying to stomp out any cases.

I caught on to the fact that you might have had a vital misreading, especially with you essentially attacking MarchHare for the "early scumhunting doesn't work thing", and tried to correct you.

Some time passes, and then after the thor wagon passes, you try and shake some of the straggler votes off him by calling him town. This is the guy that was taking the side of the debate that you were attacking MarchHare for (early scumhunting isn't possible), although to be fair, both of them were pretty zealous in their early attacks.

You then go on to continue your attack on MarchHare, by quoting all of his counterpoints to thor, where he is explaining that he does not want to hop on the L-2 RVS wagon that thor is pushing.

None of this adds up at all, you seem to be way more focused on attacking MarchHare than on the reasons you are attacking him for, and you're being a little defensive of thor as well. You two being buddies wouldn't surprise me very much.

Care to respond now?

[Ragnarokio]

@Ragnarokio

, what is your read on dana as of right now?

Mild suspicion, while noting that thor and dana are more likely scum if the other flips so.

@ Ragnarokio
Your case is confusing to me. Granted you don't like my reasons for voting MarchHare. But when was thor saying that early scumhunting wasn't possible? How am I being defensive of thor in any way other than calling him a townread of mine?

1) Thor and MarchHare specifically talked about early scumhunting as part of their exchange before. MarchHare was of the opinion that scumhunting was possible straight from the start of the game, He goes so far as to say he has pegged a lot of scum in the first five pages.

Thor takes the opposite side of the debate, saying that scumhunting has little value as far as catching scum goes until a little later into the game (late day 1, and day 2). He says that cases built before then are going to be weak, although clearly advocates early aggression.

2) You were against MarchHare during his argument with thor, when the reasons you were citing fit thor measurably better than MarchHare.

You said this:

I hate your repeated attempts to make us think we can't find scum on page x.

MarchHare said this:

Deep scum hunting comes on page one

You were basically attacking him for the opposite of something he said. This makes me think that you may have been attacking MarchHare because he was attacking thor, rather than anything MarchHare did. You ignored (or missed, I can't tell how much you're reading) my earlier post where I said:

Dana, MarchHare was advocating early scumtells, not denying them, your vote might better be placed on thor.

and the later post where i elaborated on that in more detail. You continuing the case on MarchHare, although maybe shifting the focus slightly (You only had three or so posts describing the case, and they all varied slightly), and spoke against the thor wagon. This makes me think you aren't too interested in what thor was doing, just in how you could attack MarchHare.

[Ragnarokio]

ALRIGHT DANA

I still think that your case on MarchHare is invalid, but I can understand where you're coming from a little now, and you don't seem so scummy anymore, so I'm going to drop this one before it gets needlessly convoluted.

[Ragnarokio]

ALRIGHT DANA

I still think that your case on MarchHare is invalid, but I can understand where you're coming from a little now, and you don't seem so scummy anymore, so I'm going to drop this one before it gets needlessly convoluted.

Backtracking, eh?

Nope.

[Ragnarokio]

@MarchHare: You said you've played with him before, and didn't like his playstyle. Was he fluffy and directionless then?

@RC: I've seen townies do things that they have attacked others for in the past. You're generally not always analyzing all of your own actions as town, and Dana's case felt a little off to me to begin with. I'm finding that Dana isn't making a lot of sense to me in general, and I'm not sure how to take that.

As for the rest of the case, I can buy a lot of the points you are making. When I read back on Dana (primarily in regards to my own suspicions), i noticed a lot of things that made me less confident in my read, and decided to drop the argument, since it was one I probably wasn't going to win. Your points are a little scattered, and I still don't have a strong read on Dana, but I would consider voting him later.

[Ragnarokio]

MoS has not done a single real thing all game and has not been trying to hide it.

That's a town tell, in my opinion, but it's annoying.

[Ragnarokio]

I've been a bit busy lately, and have been spending most of my time time re-reading the thread. Ant isn't looking great.

Deadline Extension would be nice.

[Ragnarokio]

Questions

March: Why did you think MBF was town with post #156?
Ant: What have your feelings on this game been as time progressed? (Early scumspects, interest levels, etc.)
Channel: Do you have any opinions that you haven't shared?

[Ragnarokio]

Ant hasn't done anything worthwhile all day, which might be what other people have been picking up on. Most of his posts are small short-term reads that don't have much visible impact on his own view, or on the view of others. He pretty much just quotes some posts and says a few things on them every now and then. When he has voted, it's generally been on weak targets, he went from Thor (RVS) to MoS (Lurker) to Pere (Contentless), to Dana (Already being attacked), and then back to MoS.

When he provided reads on all his players, very few of them had any analysis at all. For the most part he just called players that looked town, town, and then called Dana (who was being attacked) scum.

So he's got zero worthwhile content, and just goes after the weakest link all the time. I skimmed over some of his other town games, couldn't find any mafia ones. It looked like he was generally more aggressive and meaningful in his posting there.

Ant is my strongest suspect right now, after reading back. I would support his lynch.

Also, Channel, I think you missed my question.

Channel: Do you have any opinions that you haven't shared?

[Ragnarokio]

Also, Channel, I think you missed my question.

Channel: Do you have any opinions that you haven't shared?

Apologies for missing that. The answer is no, although as I say I owe this game some attention as there are things I've skimmed/ignored. Can I ask why you asked that to me specifically?

You hadn't done much all game, but a few times you made it sound like you may have been doing something.

[Ragnarokio]

looking forward to it.

[Ragnarokio]

Hmm...Ragnarokio, where are you? Deadline is coming up, and you have been sitting with the same vote on Thor for almost a week now, which you placed with the reasoning "Cool." I may hate everything Thor has stood for this game, but in general I get a townie read from him, as he seems to be trying to scumhunt at least.

Most of your posts this game have been pointless one-liners, and looking back, the only real contribution you've had on this game has been to defend MarchHare. Why is that the most important thing you see in this game? There isn't anything particularly townie about MarchHare, although one could potentially make the argument that his actions are a null tell at best. Still, it's pretty much the only thing you've focused on all game, and that looks fairly suspicious.

Vote: Ragnarokio, FoS: MarchHare

@Mod: Deadline extension please?

We're finally getting somewhere productive. Also, two-week deadlines are kinda ridiculous. No one in their right minds considers that a reasonable amount of time to decide on a lynch.

1) Been busy lately, I don't vote a lot.
2) I think I've said some things this game. It's not like all my one-liners were completely off-topic, and I did say a few other things.
3) MarchHare is a pretty cool guy. If I was defending him it was probably because he was taking up so much of my attention, though I doubt anything I did could be classified as defense.

[Ragnarokio]

@Ant:

1) If by "At the End" you meant "Right by the Start" then I can buy that. Dana and Peregrine are the only two people who have any feasible effort put into them. RC has some analysis but it's empty. The rest of the people have nothing real on them.

2) Looking through your posts. #6 Is the first real one, and it makes a couple comments that don't accomplish anything, and that you don't follow up on. You also vote for MBF, but unvote him as soon as he posts again. Post #10 is another real post, where you poke at someone for lurking, and shrug off an accusation by saying it's how you play. You also make a comment on me that you don't follow up on. Your next three posts involve you being excessively neutral and non-active, and the one after is you voting someone for lurking.

This pattern persists throughout the day, you do nothing that has any real impact on anything. You're way too neutral and disconnected from the game. You might as well not be here.

3) You are the first person that I have seriously attacked this game. Nice defense, though.

4) Yep. What do you have to say about your target-hopping? You didn't seem very interested in Dana for long.

5) I guess that explains why you're playing so transparently.

6) This does not seem to be the case. I double-checked a couple of your games, and you're generally involved right from the beginning. I might buy your activity going down at some points, but for the most part, you're involved, slightly aggressive, and contributing original and meaningful content. Not like your play here.

[Ragnarokio]

I am sad that there is a lack of interest in the ant case.

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag - why should it go somewhere again? I thought you were mostly sheeping Magua suddenly with no real clear buildup from yourself...did I miss something?

Because I tried to build a real case on him.

[Ragnarokio]

Unvote

Vote: EP

EP's been less useful than Dana, and I'd rather get lurkier people out of the way quicker. My reads on both of them are fairly neutral.

[Ragnarokio]

The deadline is in hours.

I don't think the entire game is going to swing onto the MoS wagon by tonight.

[Ragnarokio]

Ant is still probably scum

VOTE: Ant

[Ragnarokio]

Because the thor vote was from a relatively baseless wagon and I didn't feel like voting ant at the time.

[Ragnarokio]

Because the thor vote was from a relatively baseless wagon and I didn't feel like voting ant at the time.

Could you....explain this? I have no idea what you're saying. What you felt like at the time doesn't seem like a great reason for anything, but maybe the first part puts that in context.

I wanted to see how ant and others would react if I attacked ant without putting a vote behind it. I at least thought it had a higher potential to yield useful information than a direct vote would have been. If Ant was scum, a wagon on him probably wouldn't have been successful at that point in the game, so it wasn't worth trying to lynch him anyway. My vote was on thor because I hadn't removed it from the previous bandwagon.

[Ragnarokio]

@Magua: Alright.

@Thor: Which lynch?

[Ragnarokio]

That was more of "I acknowledge your comment." alright, than a "I agree with your comment" alright.

[Ragnarokio]

Pretty much no useful information.

[Ragnarokio]

I don't think I've commented on Rok yet. It seems to me that she is making a lot of effort to 'draw out' scum. However, her vote on Ant wasn't just testing the water. She legitimately thought Ant was scum, based on his short-term reads, his lack of aggression, and active lurking. Now she's saying that it was purely an attempt to extract information. Not only is this contradictory, but it also means that she has no scum reads on anybody at this point. I need to see more from her and quickly.

Don't know how you got the impression that I didn't have a scumread on Ant. I was mostly trying to find ammunition to fight him with in the future, when a wagon on him would have higher potential for success, or, if he did something that convinced me he was town, to drop my scope on him completely and focus on something else.

@Rag- what are you town/scum reads? And why?

Ant is my primary scumread, because he hadn't contributed anything meaningful on day 1. He posted more when he defended himself, which could be telling of a scum finding contribution hard that suddenly found a good excuse to post. Promising to read back probably isn't telling, but it's still a small pet peeve of mine, since that's what i usually do when I'm having trouble contributing. His conduct at the very beginning of this day, and in combination with that, channel's opinion on his player-wide analysis makes me doubt my read a bit. My feelings should become clearer in the near future.

I have a handful of miscellaneous town reads that I don't see the point in sharing right now.

Most of the other people in the game are null, with one or two raising some minor suspicions that I intend to look further into so as to form a solid opinion.

[Ragnarokio]

Ugh. I can't be on the same wagon as PeregrineV. And mbf HAS stopped ignoring me at least, so

unvote vote: Ragnarokio

. It looks like you've pretty much folded here, and admitted by silence that your reasons for doing some things make little to no sense from a town perspective. That's good enough for me.

I was thinking that starting an attack that had no chance of success would be less preferable than gaining information, and holding off until said attack would have a higher chance of ultimate success. I think now that I probably should have voted him anyway, at least until I would be forced to pick one of the major wagons instead.

[Ragnarokio]

Sorry about the low activity today, It should start picking up again soon.

There don't seem to be many real cases going around right now, and I still like my case on ant the best, so I'm going to stick with that for now. Strange that the general impression i got was that there were a lot of people at least somewhat suspicious of him, but he isn't picking up any relevant interest.

@Rag- Any luck with this?

Most of the other people in the game are null, with one or two raising some minor suspicions that I intend to look further into so as to form a solid opinion.

Not really.

[Ragnarokio]

There don't seem to be many real cases going around right now, and I still like my case on ant the best, so I'm going to stick with that for now. Strange that the general impression i got was that there were a lot of people at least somewhat suspicious of him, but he isn't picking up any relevant interest.

What about ooba?

Your case on ooba? The one that's centered around one post?

[Ragnarokio]

My activity has been pretty bad, and I haven't been contributing to the game or making a lot of progress with my reads lately, so I figured I could help out in some way by throwing what I've already done out in the open.

DANA: TOWN/SCUM

-Dana has been careless and defensive throughout the majority of the game. I would normally categorize this as town behavoiur. He could also read as over-reactive scum, which makes sense especially with the RC townflip. I find his play to be short term and passionate. When he says he's found scum, he really pushes it. There isn't a
high degree of consistency to his actions, I can see this playstyle being telling of scum or telling of town depending on the player. I plan to read some of Dana's old games when I have the time.

CHANNEL: NULL/SCUM

-Throughout the majority of day 1 he was extremely non-contributive. He had a pro-town atmosphere, but aside from that he stayed distanced from the game and seemed to make a lot of excuses to not get involved. It wasn't until his sudden attack on peregrine that he had done anything of substance. I found his case on peregrine to be really bad, but differences in opinion do exist. It makes me think that it's possible he was just trying to make as much of a case as he could on someone, since he had been picking up some background heat for non-contribution. I tried to read back on some of his old games, but couldn't really find anything that related to what I was looking for.

ANT: SCUM

-Plays in a very short term way, evidentially only aware of his immediate atmosphere. Theres no over-arching intention present in his posting. He lacks aggression, and so even when he posts something that might implicate a player it just comes off as speculation. He also doesn't follow up on most of his reads and statements. Most of the contributive posts give me the feeling that he is trying to contribute to catch up in the social activity standings. The often look good on the surface but carry little content beneath.

PERE: TOWN

-Pretty much just vibes. His play seems really genuine, and he's playing in a way that would be hard to calculate.

MASTER: NULL

-Hasn't done anything that I'm able to read into.

MIKE: NULL

-Hasn't done anything that I'm able to read into.

THOR: SCUM/NULL

-Thor is a really hard person to read. At the beginning of the game he was over-aggressive and evidentially driven more by a will to move the game as a whole than to persecute or find scum individually. His loudness wore off a great deal in day 2, when he seemed to suddenly switch gears. He felt more speculative or careful in nature (for thor anyway). He managed to cut down his list of scum suspects from 7 to 2. He's not sharing most of the analysis he's doing, if there is any, and is apparently playing more politically instead. The fact that he has little direction and doesn't seem to be moving towards any specific objective gives me a bad feeling, but he's still hard to read.

OOBA: TOWN/SCUM

-I originally though Ooba was pretty townie, because he felt interested in the people he thought were scum, and had a good degree of consistency. He also seemed to agree with most of what I was thinking at the time. His reaction to Reaper's flip felt a little bit off. It's possible that his play this game has been calculated, but theres not a lot pointing to that over it being genuine. For now he's essentially null, since his play could go in either direction.

MAGUA: NULL

-Magua has been playing pretty pro-town, and not just in atmosphere. His reads feel rational and consistent, he generally matches up pretty well to my "good-hearted townie" model. This could very easily be done as scum though, and nothing he's doing is tipping me off either way, so he's a null-read right now.

EMP: TOWN/NULL

-Emp doesn't say much and I don't have a very good grasp on what he's thinking. It feels like he's doing a lot beneath the surface of the game, even if that "a lot" isn't through deep analysis or the like. This makes me think that he's more likely town.

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag - Pretty much when I read all that wall what I get is "I don't have reads on anyone, except maybe Ant and a gut town read on Pere. Whoop-dee-doo.
You've also correctly identified that I play differently Day 2+ from how I play Day 1. I submit - doesn't everyone? It's kinda the point of Day 1.

I have reads on everyone. The only fully null reads I have are Magua, Master, and Mike.

Not everyone plays differently on day 1, especially not to the degree that your play changed. Your change in play was something that I felt may have been relevant in future analysis, which is why i noted it. Could you explain why you're playing the way you are right now?

[Ragnarokio]

Town/Scum is more relevant in future analysis than Null is, because null means that someone's behaviour is untelling, and town/scum means that someones behaviour could be either town or scum, and as time goes off you can often eliminate one of those sides. Even excluding the town/scum reads, I still have reads on half the players.

I wasn't attacking you because your play changed, I noted that the nature of your play change could have been relevant information in the future.

The main thing that's making me suspicious of you is your lack of obvious direction. Yesterday you were probably playing in a way that had you more concerned with gaining information or moving the game forward than in expressing your true thoughts or in catching scum. Today you've slowed down a lot, but I still haven't seen you do anything new. You aren't pushing any cases. You're still just sitting around prodding at random things, for the most part. Same as day 1, you're just being less aggressive about it.

[Ragnarokio]

UNVOTE: Ant
VOTE: Dana

Dana hasn't been contributing a lot, which makes me lean a little bit towards the scum side, plus it'd be more useful to keep magua around that dana, in my opinion.

I'm not liking the MoS lynch, I don't see any good points on him. His play obviously doesn't match up very well with the current meta, and relying on vibes from posts or playstyle will probably pick up more on the disconnection between his play and the meta rather than his alignment.

[Ragnarokio]

Why is ant probably town, thor?

A serial killer and a scumteam in a 13 player game seems too fast. I think LyLo would be day 2 under those conditions.

[Ragnarokio]

I already outlined how it could work. Congratulations on not contributing anything.

You missed my first question.

13 alive to start. 1 scum flip thus far, 8 alive now. I'm guessing an SK (assassinated?) and scum (killed). Certainly due to the lack of a kill Night 1 one of the scum factions (killed) was on top of the doctor situation. This bears out with their chosen kill of ooba, as they're recognizing fear of a Doc. Odds are two scum left, plus SK third party, which means we're functionally in a pseudo mylo *right now*.

Unless you mean that the scumteam wasn't allowed to nightkill N1, then the problem with this is that it's 4 scum, 9 town, with two kills per night.

Day 2 starts like this, in the worst possible scenario.
3Maf
1SK
6Town

With a town lynch, and two town nightkills, that puts the scum to town ratio to 4:3, which is a town loss.

[Ragnarokio]

Ant was pretty indirect about revealing his results, I didn't get it the first few times through either.

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag - I did correct myself to a 2 scum team as being less scary. You have continued to say nothing though, so congratulations on that. Who is your top suspect currently?

You.

A mafia team of 2 is pretty unbalanced for the mafia. Especially in a game with another killing role.

You still haven't answered my question.

[Ragnarokio]

I'm not trying to advocate anything, I don't know what the setup is. A vig would probably be more likely than a serial killer, though killing both RC and Magua is a little bad, like you said. I guess a vig being redirected to ooba would be possible, though mafia redirector and roleblocker seems unlikely as well. When things don't add up in many directions, it's best to not try and force it to fit, is how I generally think.

I don't understand the logical jump between who made the kills and ant's alignment.

[Ragnarokio]

confirming your role to someone who isn't confirmed town or a claimed cop might have been safer.

[Ragnarokio]

You had no reason to think that any of the rest of us would survive the night? When there are 2-3 high priority scum targets alive?

[Ragnarokio]

Vote: MoS

[Ragnarokio]

Claimed power roles and confirmed townies are usually pretty high on scum hitlists.

[Ragnarokio]

Thor, please explain why you think ant is not scum.

@MoS: Did you use this ability on N1?

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag- see you are here, what do you think of recent developments? Why did Ant the cop live?

Either because he's scum, or because the scumteam didn't want to run into a doc, would be most likely.

if he's scum/SK he just made himself a BIG target for the other killing role. ... he's really ballsy to be claiming "kill me please" role on Day 2 at that stage as it's asking to get him dead.

It's not so ballsy when you're scum at L-1. A town killing role wouldn't have shot the cop. If ant has three members on his team, he pretty much knows that there isn't a serial killer. I still think a 3+ mafia setup is much more likely than a 2- one. If there

is

only two mafiates, with a serial killer, then the second mafiate is almost definitely going to be bulletproof, or else they're really unbalanced.

[Ragnarokio]

I'm against a flavour claim if it could out the doc.

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag - .... (<---this is what I see when I read your posts)

What do you see when you read your own posts?

[Ragnarokio]

that last quote was by thor >.>

[Ragnarokio]

Yeah, that's how things happened.

I was mostly just pressuring MoS to see how he'd react, since his logic was a little funny. Didn't gleam anything relevant. My read on him is still null.

UNVOTE: MoS

Thor still seems scummiest to me, and his play throughout today hasn't done a lot to convince me otherwise. His attacks on other people are feeling a lot more towards to personal end of the spectrum, and it doesn't read as a legitimately frustrated townie.

VOTE: Thor

What do you see when you read your posts?

I see scumhunting, pressure of suspects, debating theories with relevant implications, and so forth.

Why did it take three posts to get you to answer my question?

[Ragnarokio]

The odds of MBF being scum are about zero. If he's probably town, then it'd be better to trust him than to threaten him with a lynch unless he gives up all his secrets. I think that's generally called fishing, and it tends to help scum more than town.

[Ragnarokio]

Do you think that theres a feasible chance of MBF being scum, thor?

[Ragnarokio]

Thank gawd.

@Rag - Yes. Do you see a pro-town angle to him playing coy with what his role powers may/may not be at this stage? If you do, fill me in. He can't be trying to draw a kill *more* and there's no point in trying to draw a kill less. Maybe I'm just dumb - you should clue me in.

Claiming power roles out of nowhere and doing things to drag more attention to you is not ideal play as scum. It makes people want to lynch you, it opens up the possibility of a counterclaim, and is generally just a move that has lots of drawbacks and very little rewards. If MBF was scum, he should have stayed in the background, it didn't look like anyone thought him significantly suspicious anyway. He would have almost certainly survived til' endgame, with people like me and CDB in front of him.

Anyone pushing MBF on the basis that he might be scum is being ridiculous.

Anyone pushing MBF to get at the information he's witholding is still being ridiculous. MBF knows what information he's witholding. He says that the information would hurt the town if he released it. What reason do you think he'd have for lying? Incompetence? He KNOWS what information he has. you don't, he actually has the ability to judge it's effect on the game upon release, where as you don't.

[Ragnarokio]

People should unvote.

[Ragnarokio]

It's INCREDIBLY unlikely for MBF to be scum.

[Ragnarokio]

I was including serial killer in the scum rink.

[Ragnarokio]

Because a serial killer wants to survive until the endgame to win.

Spontaneously claiming vig, attracting nightkills from scum, and then claiming "extra secret info" when nobody is wanting you lynched, attracting votes from the town, is not ideal play as a serial killer.

[Ragnarokio]

Claiming and pushing the fact that you have extra information when your claim was initially successful is not something that a serial killer does. That play belongs to jesters and townies who give out more information than they should.

[Ragnarokio]

And people who want to look imperfect, but from what i understand, acting perfect as scum works fine enough around here.

[Ragnarokio]

Why would scum do that?

[Ragnarokio]

to stop a wagon on me

[Ragnarokio]

(1) She has been scumhunting more than people give her credit for
(2) I am 100% of her flavor, and it's a good character from the show (from what I've gleaned off a wiki)
(3) <Can't say reason 3 right now>

The first time MBF hinted at having hidden information it was in response to people doubting his opinion of me being town.

[Ragnarokio]

The town intention is still to protect me.

[Ragnarokio]

The effectiveness of the maneuver isn't so relevant as the fact that it is something that a townie with the information might do, but that a serial killer wouldn't do.

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@Dramoric:

Why would he want me killed? I think he's town.

We've got a cop and another confirmed townie alive, and it's just as likely or more likely that the mafia would kill him before me anyway.

@Thor: No, the information isn't pro-town, he's saying that revealing it will hurt the town. If you think he's town, then you should trust him. It's incredibly likely that he's town, which is what i've been trying to demonstrate.

[Ragnarokio]

I think thor is scummier than peregrine.

[Ragnarokio]

@Thor - please look at the current gamestate. Please look at the last three days of play. Please look at the vote spread. Please do something pro town and drop your tunnel fishing so we can move forward.

I can see how you might be frustrated at MBF being so stubborn, but you should be able to see, as a player that usually actually thinks things through, that MBF is far more likely to be town with-holding information than mafia or serial killer. Killing MBF will be killing a town power role, and could cost us more than just the loss of a vig shot. He isn't going to claim because he knows that the information is valuable enough that it shouldn't be released. You can doubt this all you want, but by pressuring him and advocating his lynch, you're being anti-town, and you could cost the town it's game because you didn't step down before MBF did.

@Everyone else:

Conversation about getting MBF to claim isn't ever going to get anywhere. You'll end up killing him before he claims, so I'd stop with the information push. It's a waste of time and will just stagnate real discussion. The only reason you should be attacking MBF is because you think he's scum.

[Ragnarokio]

I'm against killing peregrine, I'd rather kill thor or MoS.

I'm also suspicious of how easily the dramonic wagon built up, and don't think it's likely he's scum anyway.

cop, vig, neighborizer, mystery role x, protector of sort.
that's a lot.

@Rag: Do you have ANY reason to believe MBF is town outside of personal read?

Personal read of his play, the fact that a serial killer doesn't fit easily into a 13-player game, and all the other logic supporting him being town.

I'll post something large tonight

[Ragnarokio]

I think a fullclaim might be appropriate right now. There's too much friction between everything and the state of indecision is going to help scum a lot more than town in the end. The information might be able to push us in the right direction, even if it isn't the best direction.

[Ragnarokio]

I am the odd night vig, as MBF said. I can confirm that MBF is the even night vig.

Thor can claim next.

[Ragnarokio]

Not so much suspicion, I just thought something felt off about one of his posts.

[Ragnarokio]

Thor, is your role just vanilla?

My role name is NSA Agent John Casey

[Ragnarokio]

Then what's your role? Your ability is that it is implied that there is a dayvig in the game?

[Ragnarokio]

@Thor: Please fullclaim

[Ragnarokio]

Looking forward to it.

[Ragnarokio]

The culmination of my scumhunting up until that point of time was contained within my analysis of all living players that I posted a while back. I haven't done much since then.

I'll ask the mod if I'm allowed to quote things from the quicktopic.

[Ragnarokio]

Kill: Peregrine
Dayvig: Peregrine
Murder: Peregrine
Assassinate: Peregrine
Vigkill: Peregrine
Vig: Peregrine
Eliminate: Peregrine

You weren't an obvious daydoc, but you were making it obvious that your role confirmed the existence of a dayvig, and daydoc would probably be one of the few feasible roles that does that, so it's not a huge gap in logic for anyone trying to guess.

This is a rather odd situation, and I'm not really sure what to think of it.

A roleblocker and a dayvig on the scumteam seems overpowered. We were lucky that dana dropped first, or else our cop would have been stuck, we evidentially don't have a real doctor. Balance arguments aren't absolute, though. This will take some time to puzzle out.

[Ragnarokio]

@Rag - why did you shoot RC again?
@Vigs - why do you trust MoS considering you're both pro-town and neighbors?

All of his posts were reading excessively neutral and ooba said he had a special scumread on him.

I don't trust MoS.

I don't think any conclusions can be drawn from the daydoc conundrum.

[Ragnarokio]

MBF: Town

Ant: No cop counterclaim makes me think he's town, but I still have a scumread on his behaviour.

Emp: He's being silly, but I imagine that's how he usually is, I don't have any real way to get a read on him, since the ability to vote anyone for anything is a pretty good shield as scum, and Emp doesn't seem to be a big fan of traditional reasoning. Cop read makes him more likely town.

Dram: I have a town read on him, mostly because I find him to be pretty reasonable, and because vibes.

Thor: I still have a scumread on you. I read back on the day 2 dana wagon stuff. You placed the first vote on dana, and your last post before the dana lynch was when dana had two votes. I'd say it's very feasible that you and dana are scum-mates, especially considering your relationship before that.

MoS: No read, but more likely to be scum, through process of elimination.

Peregrine: The post that caught my eye was this one:

@MBF- you do realize that town is really powered up, and that is what makes your claim ( and thus your thoughts about Rag) hard to believe?

It seemed a little calculated a response to an unbelievable claim, although town carefulness is also possible. My read on Peregrine is still town because he feels genuine.

I forget who else is alive, if anyone.

[Ragnarokio]

Do you usually treat incompetence as a scumtell?

I'll compile a case on you.

[Ragnarokio]

Unvote, Vote: Peregrine

[Ragnarokio]

I targeted dram because it seemed that most people wanted him dead and because I didn't want to convolute things more than they already felt.

Ant being scum is still a very possible scenario in my mind.

[Ragnarokio]

Sorry, I'm back.

I really like MoS's PbPa, and would like to see ant defend himself from more than the weakest points.

[Ragnarokio]

@Thor:

Ant and Emp
MoS and Thor
MoS and Emp

In order of likeliness.

[Ragnarokio]

Ant claimed cop for fear of being lynched. He had to claim investigation results on someobody after that, and once he's doing that, It doesn't really matter who he chooses to be scum, as long as he doesn't pick his buddy and doesn't do it until LyLo.

I'm not seeing the ballsiness of it, seeing as the cop claim was at threat of lynch.

[Ragnarokio]

I think that something that I haven't though of yet happened with the N1 kills.

[Ragnarokio]

NSA Agent John Casey

[Ragnarokio]

@Ant: It's Day four and your case is based on the details contained within rolenames? Please respond to each of the little red segments in MoS's PbPa.

@Thor:

1) Ant could have been kept alive until a certain point by fear of a doc. I think scum only had one night after they felt they were safe from docs to remove ant or keep him alive. When a cop is going into LyLo, it's always a matter of his word vs whoever he claims is scum (even if indirectly via town results). Scum don't lose as much as might be intuitive by leaving the cop alive. They kill the cop at night if town makes the right choice, and if they had killed the cop the night before, then LyLo wouldn't have turned out too much worse. Theres jitters in the effectiveness of the play, leaving the cop alive is probably worse most of the time, but with only one night going into LyLo to make the decision, it's not unfeasible that they would leave the cop alive, and try to get him lynched. Especially if the cop already had strongly proclaimed enemies, like me. All it takes is me voting Ant for a scumwin, and from a scum perspective, that might not be a very hard thing to do.

2) Your role makes no sense, I can't see a conceivable purpose for it, and am eager to see how it turns out at the end of the game. A scum dayvig seems overpowered. It will probably be one of those things that can't be determined until all the information is present. Speculation won't help.

Ant's behaviour this game has struck me as very scum-like, and I've held onto that read since the start of the game. MoS's case on him is very good, and I would like to see him respond to each of those little red highlighted sections. I feel like if MoS was scum, I wouldn't be able to read him as such because he feels so withdrawn as a player. I think that if I were to read back, all it would do is re-affirm my initial views, which would be that ant is scum and MoS is neutral.

MBF had a scumread on MoS, and I think that he'd be able to read MoS better than me, so I'm thinking that it's feasible that MoS is scum. If someone could produce a good case on him, I'd be less torn. (well, obviously >.>)

That's essentially where I'm sitting right now.

I can't get a read on emp because he's ridiculous, and I already have a scumread on you, So if somehow MoS was lynched today and flipped scum, then I'd probably lynch you tomorrow, unless a good emp case came up.

[Ragnarokio]

Ant is probably scum.
In the even that ant is scum, Emp is scum.
MoS is possibly scum. (meaning I have some reason to believe he is scum)
In the event that MoS is scum:
Thor is probably scum.
Emp is null.

[Ragnarokio]

I probably would have chosen [Ant/Emp] as scum anyway, and in the event that ant isn't scum, theres a small saving chance for lynching scum anyway, so an Emp lynch might actually be better then an Ant lynch statistically.

Ant and Emp may as well be the same person, and it's possible emp is scum even if ant isn't, so yeah.

That works with me, Emp vs MoS makes a lot more sense than Ant vs MoS

[Ragnarokio]

VOTE: Empking

[Ragnarokio]

I'm not so sure that's legitimate evidence.

[Ragnarokio]

I'm not so sure we've lynched scum yet thor. 60% sure. Your end-game play is reminding me of end-game play but I am trying to ignore that feeling because it doesn't help to be paranoid

[Ragnarokio]

http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/LhnQBVZDRHQ