Mini 1096 - Seinfeld Mafia (Game Over)

[MacavityLock]

I know who needs wagoning. It's Magna! VOTE: Magna

[MacavityLock]

I have a reason, but I can't say it yet.

[MacavityLock]

I have a reason, but I can't say it yet.

Is it because you know I’ve seen your scum game up close and personal?

Reverse pronouns.

I’m watching you closely Mr. Lannister … but not as closely as LMP.

Why are you watching LMP closely? You don't really mention him otherwise.

[MacavityLock]

Reverse pronouns.

So your logical reason is that you saw me as scum in Clash of Kings? Fantastic reasoning as that has everything to do with how roles are handed out in other game

I have a reason, but I can't say it yet.

Why are you watching LMP closely? You don't really mention him otherwise.

I have my reasons. Were you actually wanting to hear them?

At least I came out and specifically said that I'm not going to give up my reasons yet. You going to do the same as regards LMP?

[MacavityLock]

At least I came out and specifically said that I'm not going to give up my reasons yet. You going to do the same as regards LMP?

I’m not giving my reasons as of yet. My motivation is greatly different from yours, which was basically to disguise your method of moving out of RVS by wagonning for no reason.

I'm sorry, that is incorrect. Don't presume that you know my motivation(s); "wagoning for no reason" was not one of them.

Everyone losing their nerve, get back on the Magna-wagon!

[MacavityLock]

What is your take on UT?

I have some end of term things to wrap up (final project today, grading some finals tomorrow) that's preventing me from digging too deep on most people, so I expect to be more comprehensive Wednesday-ish. For right now, I don't really love Untrod's pressure release unvote of Magna, and I'm not particularly sure why he picked charter out over you. Gut's got him neutral-leaning scum.

[MacavityLock]

I'm sorry, that is incorrect. Don't presume that you know my motivation(s); "wagoning for no reason" was not one of them.

I know that in 39 you stated that your ‘reason’ for suspicion of me was meaningless RVS schenanigans. Unless you lied about your motivation there I’m not making any assumptions.

Man, you're doing awesome at misrep-ing me.

I have a reason, but I can't say it yet.

Is it because you know I’ve seen your scum game up close and personal?

Reverse pronouns.

When I said "Reverse pronouns", the implication was that I've seen

your

scum game before. Which can mean many things. It can mean that I'm voting you out of spite. It can mean that I'm voting you because you I know that you can be scum. It can mean meta.

I've seen at least 4 people in this game as scum, one as my scumbuddy in a game about a year ago. And I'm not voting for any of them.

[MacavityLock]

I have a reason, but I can't say it yet.

:}

[MacavityLock]

Sorry for needing prod.

i find it odd that there is not much reasoning behind tally's vote, just that it could be me. but i expect her to move that vote to a more probable scum.

Why do you expect that?

I'm really sick of trying to cheerlead the Magna wagon. Can the rest of the town please come sort of collective conclusion as to the fact that it's real?

[MacavityLock]

I'd prefer if he gets hammered without claiming. That'd show him.

No. That will not happen.

[MacavityLock]

I've been bad with activity over break, my apologies. Catching up.

[MacavityLock]

OK, I'm going to soften my crusade against Magna for the moment. My reason for thinking that he might be more likely to be scum has to do with meta, and I'm not going to discuss what exactly it was right now. That's because I feel that I can get more definitive info depending on whether or not he does a certain thing in the future, and I don't want to tip what that is just yet. I do think that there's enough there to keep my vote on him for now.

That said, the Magna wagon will be absolutely fascinating to analyze once we get some flips. For right now, there is one clear winner for scummiest vote on the wagon, and that's peanutman. The reasoning was pretty weak, feels a bit invented, and the timing was absolutely perfect for either a bus (in the Magna-scum case) or an attempt to finalize the wagon (in the Magna-town case). His pressure-off unvote makes me think that they're more likely scum-buddies than the Magna-town/peanut-scum case.

I'm not seeing the major raj case. He's more null to me than scum.

[MacavityLock]

Tired of being called out for pushing a lynch with no reason?

No, no one's called me out for it really. I'm tired of being able to do nothing other than than pushing your lynch.

You’ve been called to provide something (really even anything) and failed repeatedly to do it.

Again, not really by anyone but you, so I'm good for now.

[MacavityLock]

I agree with Untrod's 193 and the first sentence of charter's 196.

So you are happy to claim when not even at L-1? I smell a fake-claim that you just can’t wait to use.

He's scum who is anxious to fakeclaim. Must have a good one.

. . . Dammit Magna for beating me to this!

Does this tell work, ever?

[MacavityLock]

I've let this game get away from me. I apologize. I'm going to wrap my head around it.

As for the Magna-meta thing, yes, there was something in his first 3 posts that tipped me. In addition, I did feel that his reaction to getting voted was not particularly pro-town: I felt like rather than defending himself, he was using whatever he could including misrep-ing to

explain

the votes on him, which doesn't feel very pro-town to me. However, meta-wise there's been something his most recent 3 posts that has kind of tipped me the other way. Yes, I'm keeping this intentionally vague. Anyway, if after flips I decide to continue to go after Magna, there will be an articulated case behind it.

[MacavityLock]

MacLock, how can he defend himself if you don't say why you're voting him?

While that's certainly true in the case of my vote, which is unexplained, it's not true for others' votes on him. For example, I saw strains of this in various places:

Iso 4:

I second this question. And confirm my vote. I'm thinking MoI and Untrod right now.

So you are confirming the vote you made on the basis that it would be better to lynch me D1 than have me NKed N1?

I love that.

Iso 12:

Then,

his extreme overreaction

to Untrod's post 34. It seems to me that 34 was a joke, since 32 looked like a joke. I find it difficult to believe that even Untrod believes his four people are scum, and how Magna cites this as his reason for voting Untrod. Very bad, but on the surface it looks like it is legit.

Bolded for emphasis is a classic unsupported statement. How is it an ‘extreme overreaction’. Be a big boy and support your assertions.

And an overreaction to 34? You must be kidding me. 34 is the classic precursor to scummy behaviour. He puts LMP on his joke scum list. Later he asserts that LMP’s 32 supports his ‘theory’ into that LMP is scum, yet when he unvotes the obv-bad bandwagon on me not a hint of his ‘scum suspect’ LMP. I’m not the only one who sees it given that both Haschel and LMP have commented on it.

Your attempt to minimize UT’s scummy behavior as ‘a joke’ is either stupid or scummy. Not sure which at this point.

Iso 16:

No. And "agreeing that UT's behavior is scummy" isn't why I find you suspicious.

Are you purposely continuing to DODGE the question purposefully? Scumtastic.

I also really dislike Iso 23, which is all "Hey, I'm almost lynched, but look over there!":

Before I forget

–

Bv stop avoiding the thread

. You’ve made 18 posts since Friday when you posted your ‘catching-up later’ post. At least 8 of those were in other games. So you don't have an lee-way to say you were making Mish-Mash or General Discussion short posts and didn't have time to read this thread. It's barely 7 pages long for god sakes.

I saw enough that I didn't like to continue the crusade, given that it started with the meta. After another in-depth read of Magna, I won't be voting him to start the day. A question though:

As for your meta thing color me unimpressed. You’ve hidden behind the ‘invisible meta’ shield all day long, acting as if it is valid. You can’t have valid meta on me that shows I am scum since I am Town.

Until you show your ‘work’ I’m just going to chock it up to a scummy attack by you.

It's fine if you don't believe me. Eventually, I will explain it, even if it does end up being post-game. That said, if you've been thinking it's scummy for so long, why haven't I gotten a vote from you ever?

----

bv's "Can I vote for a townie, please please, can I?" post 192 is more than enough for me to VOTE: bv310.

[MacavityLock]

That said, if you've been thinking it's scummy for so long, why haven't I gotten a vote from you ever?

You are better than this Mac. I only have 1 vote to give and there are plenty of actively scummy players to chase. You can’t honestly think I should only restrict my scum-hunting to the single player I am voting for, correct?

Yes, but in all this time railing against me, you've never voted. Am I not allowed to ask?

@Mac

– So after you wasted a Day1 doing no scum-hunting your vote for today is lurker-hunting?

How is specifically referencing post 192 in my vote lurker-hunting?

[MacavityLock]

But how does any of that prohibit you from talking about other players? Day 1 you were very much on the sidelines about people that got a good amount of attention (raj, LMP and UT to name a few). I believe scum would like to avoid taking stances for as long as possible, while town should look in several places for scum, so this part makes me suspicious of you.

1) Unrelenting pressure was necessary. 2) I commented on both raj and UT, and I generally don't give away my town reads early.

@MacLock: Was MoI’s reaction to getting voted a part of your secret meta tell? Otherwise I don’t know why it took you until 246 to bring it up. Couldn’t it have been used in addition to something you couldn’t say on Day 1?

No, his reaction to my vote was not part of the meta. It was separate.

[MacavityLock]

How is specifically referencing post 192 in my vote lurker-hunting?

Because you’ve summarized you grand reason for voting for Bv to a single post he made. Why does that post make him the scummiest player in the game? I’d like some content to back up your vote.

Because that post was lazy, was asking for permission from town as opposed to taking initiative, and with his subsequent vote moved raj-town to L-1 and pretty much solidified his lynch. Yes, it made him the scummiest player in the game. Easily.

Yes, but in all this time railing against me, you've never voted. Am I not allowed to ask?

You certainly are allowed to ask anything you want in a Mafia game. Just as I am allowed to point out that your question serves no clear scum-hunting motivation.

Why to do presume that I have no scum-hunting motivation for asking it? I can give you a very good reason why scum-you might be avoiding voting me: OMGUS will make you look bad, so you're just going to argue and snipe. You're not helping yourself by brushing off what I'm doing as not scum-hunting.

[MacavityLock]

If I was worried about OMGUS would I have voted immediately today for Katsuki? Nope. Because OMGUS is an over-used buzzword bingo phrase, not a viable scum-tell IMO.

I agree, it is a buzzword and isn't always a scum-tell. But it can be one, and can be viewed as one. Being scum means you have to manage other people's perception of you, OMGUS can make you look bad, so you might want to avoid it.

[MacavityLock]

2) Ehhhh, all I see is you calling raj null in 185, which says nothing

It says I didn't particularly want him lynched.

and agreeing with a point UT made about bv in 202, which says little about what you think of him and more about what you thought of bv.

Also, there's my iso 5:

For right now, I don't really love Untrod's pressure release unvote of Magna, and I'm not particularly sure why he picked charter out over you. Gut's got him neutral-leaning scum.

However that does make me realize your other suspect was bv, its just still odd that you waited that long to start looking for somebody else given you were not a lurker or flaker.

Let me repeat: Unrelenting pressure was necessary.

Ok, so what does that mean? Were you not looking for a reaction when you voted him? Or was it necessary to keep your analysis to his reaction a secret until later on?

The following remains true:

My reason for thinking that he might be more likely to be scum has to do with meta, and I'm not going to discuss what exactly it was right now. That's because I feel that I can get more definitive info depending on whether or not he does a certain thing in the future, and I don't want to tip what that is just yet.

[MacavityLock]

LMP, why breadcrumb a vanilla role?

[MacavityLock]

@Mac: Why not? Especially when it comes at no cost?

Because most people crumb is to have evidence to point back to in the event they, as a PR, need to claim. A VT claim is pointless as it doesn’t support anything.

Yeah, that's where I was coming from.

At this point I'd like to hear from everyone else not on LMP's wagon.

- @ Mac, KMD, Charter and Haschel

- Do any of you think LMP is a better lynch than Katsuki? If not please consider putting the pressure to Kats with your votes.

Gut has Kats more scummy than LMP right now, but I should do a more complete read of both, which I'm afraid I won't get to until this weekend.

[MacavityLock]

I'm happy with an

Unvote, Vote: Katsuki

.

And this makes twice now where I'm not really seeing a case on one of the two big wagons (raj D1, LMP D2), and the overlap is strong: Kats, bv/Jahudo, UT, and Tal. At least two scum here.

[MacavityLock]

It was weird that after all your pushing Kats for so long, my vote seemed to really start the Kats wagon rolling - charter & Macavity's votes following mine VERY quickly. I'll hold off on interpreting this until someone flips.

I mean, for charter's that fine, it was the next post. My vote came two and a half days later, after I had said that I was going to read up on the two big wagons over the weekend. Kind of a misrep to lump me and charter together here, isn't it?

Kats, you're at L-1 and someone has offered to hammer you, and you haven't made word one about a claim. Not the claim, not whether or not you're willing to claim and why, not a thing. Why not?

[MacavityLock]

And this makes twice now where I'm not really seeing a case on one of the two big wagons (raj D1, LMP D2), and the overlap is strong: Kats, bv/Jahudo, UT, and Tal. At least two scum here.

I think the most important thing here is that the chances of both wagons being town is almost 0%.

Yeah. VOTE: Kats

[MacavityLock]

Yes, re-reading. Would be fine with a mass-claim.

[MacavityLock]

That means that there is a maximum of three scum on Raj. From which I conclude Tally, plus at least one and no more than two of the following group: Haschel, UT, BV/Jahudo, and possibly Magna.

...

Tally has been on every successful wagon so far.

UT was also on all 3 successful wagons. Why give him more of a pass then Tally?

My top 2 right now are Tally and UT. I'm thinking it's them plus 2 of Fonz, Jahudo, Magna, and charter.

I see Jahudo's point against mass-claim, don't agree with it, also don't think it's

that

scummy.

At some point today I'd like to know what MacLock had on Magna way back on day 1. My read on Mac largely depends on this.

You will find out today sometime. I pwomise.

[MacavityLock]

I see Jahudo's point against mass-claim, don't agree with it, also don't think it's that scummy.

That fence post must be starting to hurt. Explain again how trying to say that we aren’t in absolute danger of losing this game if we mislynch isn’t scummy with a 5 to 4 current Mafia to Town ratio.

No fence post. I don't agree with it, but I see how it could possible come from town. Therefore, his anti-mass-claim post is pretty much null for me.

Explain again how trying to say that we aren’t in absolute danger of losing this game if we mislynch isn’t scummy with a 5 to 4 current Mafia to Town ratio.

Did he say that? I don't see that.

So I don't really see a compelling argument to massclaim. If scum do have NKs then we have awesome protection/blocking and should not massclaim to out them. If scum dont have NKs then we are most likely looking at an underpowered town with little to gain from massclaim.

I also think that with 4 of 9 players being in the mafia, we already have pretty good odds of not going down to 50%.

I see "our odds aren't horrible". Which is true. I don't think I've been in a LYLO before with a blind 44% of hitting scum. I see "protect our PRs". Which is not an uncommon reaction when discussing claims.

His opinion is wrong

in my opinion

, but right now for me it doesn't make him scummier than he already was, much of which is residual bv. However, depending on what we find from the eventual mass-claim, Jahudo's opinion may become a non-null-tell.

----

As for the mass-claim I would suggest that once all suspicions are on record that Untrod starts the process and we Popcorn from there. Thoughts?

Works for me.

----

Checking, you are of course correct, with the accompanying corollary that it makes UT look very scummy as well (guess I need to re-read HOW he jumped those wagons).

Please make us aware of what you find here.

[MacavityLock]

Hmm. You're right. Apparently that post

so

internally self-contradictory that I failed to read it correctly (i.e. such that it did in fact contradict itself). And then his follow-up to your pointing out this 50% thing is "Whatever." Yeah, that's not good. Still, I think I want to reserve absolute judgment until mass-claim happens.

[MacavityLock]

Three mislynches without losing is already generous in a 12 person mini. Do you really think the mod would give us four mislynches without losing?

[MacavityLock]

Yes, waiting on UT and popcorn.

[MacavityLock]

Lloyd Braun, Vanilla.

Tali, you're up.

[MacavityLock]

@Mac

– Now is the time for you to put whatever ‘meta’ you were talking about Day 1 out on the table.

Yes, Magna, yes it is.

As for the Magna-meta thing, yes, there was something in his first 3 posts that tipped me.

Based on your welcoming me to Vandalay Industries in the Queue thread, I knew that you had a good background knowledge of Seinfeld. Therefore, from iso 1 and the capitalized "Crazy", I was 100% aware that you were breadcrumbing Crazy Joe Davola. To me, Joe Davola was going to be either SK, Vig, or Vanilla. Now, I know that you've breadcrumbed your fake-claim before as scum, and specifically breadcrumbed a

vanilla

fake-claim. See ACoK. So, all Day 1, I was pushing you towards a claim. Yes, I was role-fishing. I would have accepted Davola, Vig, but would have kept my eye out for SK leanings. If you claimed Davola, Vanilla or any name other than Davola, I probably would be back on you. As I previously stated,

LMP, why breadcrumb a vanilla role?

@Mac: Why not? Especially when it comes at no cost?

Because most people crumb is to have evidence to point back to in the event they, as a PR, need to claim. A VT claim is pointless as it doesn’t support anything.

Yeah, that's where I was coming from.

and this was in direct reference to you, Magna.

However, meta-wise there's been something his most recent 3 posts that has kind of tipped me the other way.

refers to

Furthermore why should Tally be the hypothetical Vig target if she isn’t at the top of your ranked scum?

I thought this was a vig soft-claim from Magna, which fit together nicely with my Davola, Vig theory, so I backed off.

Now with your Watcher claim, I'm kind of non-plussed. It probably fits with Davola just as well as Vig does, as well as the other legitimate crumbs, so I think I'm okay with it.

I need to re-read all claims and stuff anyway. It does look like we have a 1-v-1, so that's nice. And given that Magna is

also

countering Haschel, it looks like we've got some pretty good ties. I'm pretty well leaning towards Haschel to vote. (We should also be aware that Haschel being scum does not preclude Jahudo or Magna from also being scum. I don't know if it's likely, but it's not a "one xor the other" case.)

Jahudo and charter, your direct opinions of each other based on Neighbor talk?

[MacavityLock]

@MacLock: At what point did you think scum wouldn't have kills? Wouldn't that have made SK an unlikely role, or essentially a survivor?

My crusade against Magna ended before Day 1 did. Therefore, during my meta attacks on him, I had no knowledge of what any night-kills would look like.

[MacavityLock]

Jahudo, did you discuss your role/power with charter in your Neighbor thread?

[MacavityLock]

Fonz, I pretty much agree with you. I'm thinking there's a solid chance that Jahudo-scum saw his scum-buddy Haschel floundering and decided to try to counter-claim to get himself semi-confirmed. This is why I said

(We should also be aware that Haschel being scum does not preclude Jahudo or Magna from also being scum. I don't know if it's likely, but it's not a "one xor the other" case.)

I'm going to try to map together all the possibilities around the claim to see what we've got.

[MacavityLock]

I am assuming that one of the Newmans is lying. Two town with same role name would be bastard moddery, and

I doubt they are both lying - a Seinfeld game without Newman is unlikely IMO.

Outguessing the mod. Main, or main-er, characters can easily be given as fake-claims. I've done it before. (Jimmy McNulty as fake-claim in The Wire.)

That said, if Newman is a fake-claim, then both Haschel and Jahudo are scum. If Haschel is scum and Jahudo is town, it suggests that scum weren't given fake-claims, which is interesting. Jahudo-scum gambiting to attempt to end the game is plausible.

Now, Jahudo and Haschel, why aren't you voting for each other?

[MacavityLock]

So, all Day 1, I was pushing you towards a claim. Yes, I was role-fishing. I would have accepted Davola, Vig, but would have kept my eye out for SK leanings. If you claimed Davola, Vanilla or any name other than Davola, I probably would be back on you.

The more I review this the more I dislike it.

1. Town thought process, regardless of Meta (which isn’t really valid as I’ve properly breadcrumbed in MANY games as Town when a PR), would be to observe behavior that might align with a Serial Killer role not to try to force a Vig claim immediately Day 1. Also, the fact that you specifically picked up on my breadcrumb also makes me wary given I apparently have been blocked at least once (if Haschel is Town) and maybe more often. Scum with no Nightkill would certainly worry about a Vig.

The thought process here was to lock you into a claim early; that way, we could at least prevent a you-SK from going off the reservation, do our best to prevent you-scum from building fake actions around other peoples' eventual claims, etc.

Now, I can't really deny that this looks bad, in light of no kills so far. However, a few points in rebuttal. First, were I scum, would I have at least somewhat tried to protect you with

I'd prefer if he gets hammered without claiming. That'd show him.

No. That will not happen.

Second, you saw me in ACoK. Don't you think I can do better than blind meta to manufacture a case on someone?

Third, if I'm scum and know that we've got a RB, don't I keep my breadcrumb read on you entirely under my hat and just recommend the block on you?

I get your issue, but please make sure to examine my actions from the me-town perspective to see that my play Day 1 was consistent with the knowledge that a VT had on Day 1.

----

I would like to take this time to remind people as we deliberate that Jahudo replaced bv.

[MacavityLock]

Now, I can't really deny that this looks bad, in light of no kills so far. However, a few points in rebuttal. First, were I scum, would I have at least somewhat tried to protect you with

This is a WIFOM argument. As Town or scum you would want to portray yourself as Pro-Town through your defined stances. Making sure someone isn’t lynched before claiming is Pro Town. Especially

Or I could have just let it pass right by without comment, and doing so wouldn't have made me look any more or less pro-town.

I would like to take this time to remind people as we deliberate that Jahudo replaced bv.

Also Fonz replaced peanutman. Is there a specific reason you see that you needed to reiterate knowledge available in the first post?

Because Jahudo is one of the two people who is up for getting lynched today, and I want to make sure that it doesn't get lost in the shuffle that he used to be bv, and bv was pretty scummy in his short time with us.

[MacavityLock]

Sorry, been busy with Super Bowl and such. Will be posting here with content soon.

[MacavityLock]

Yeah, well, I did play bad. Sorry Magna, for totally messing up your shit.

A quick guess pre-setup reveal: Were the scum all Vengeful upon lynch?