Mini 1096 - Seinfeld Mafia (Game Over)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Did he say that? I don't see that.

I’ll quote it for you below …

What kind of mafia game doesn't have scum NKs?

I guess its possible given there's a 4 person mafia and scum win conditions are typically "50% and nothing can prevent the same". If that's all the case than a mislynch today doesn't automatically give scum a win. They would need a way to break the deadlock.

Bolded for emphasis.

As I’ve said we are in a 5 Town 4 Scum set-up. A mislynch puts us at 4 and 4, which exactly meets the 50% criteria. He then specifically states that a mislynch doesn’t automatically end the game as scum would need a way to break the deadlock which is clearly false. Unless he knows about some Town power that can prevent it from staying at 50% (which I have seen no indiciation of) then I can't see how he can make that argument. And based on the further paragraphs (which you quoted) he is clearly aware we only have 9 players left when he said …

I also think that with 4 of

9

players being in the mafia, we already have pretty good odds of not going down to 50%.

@Mac

– The two paragraphs you did quote were in the same post as the paragraph in question. How did you miss that?

[MacavityLock]

Hmm. You're right. Apparently that post

so

internally self-contradictory that I failed to read it correctly (i.e. such that it did in fact contradict itself). And then his follow-up to your pointing out this 50% thing is "Whatever." Yeah, that's not good. Still, I think I want to reserve absolute judgment until mass-claim happens.

[Jahudo]

Yes, its a fundamental truth that scum would win at 50% (with that as their win condition) if there is not a role in place to automatically prevent them. I spoke from the hope that we might have that power as a fallback in the unfortunate chance we mislynch today. I should not have worded it in such a way that people could interpret it as a reliable best case scenario, because we shouldn't guess the mod at this point.

I figured I didn't need to hold anyone's hand and guide them through the pros and cons, worst case and best case scenarios of what we are facing.

Any reason why you bolded the 9, didn't comment on it yourself, but asked someone to comment on it first? If you already explained what you have a problem with it, then nevermind. I think they are good odds for the group. Even better if you are a townie not being suspected by anyone because you can assume 4 of 8 as the odds.

[MacavityLock]

Three mislynches without losing is already generous in a 12 person mini. Do you really think the mod would give us four mislynches without losing?

[The Fonz]

When we massclaim, we need to avoid commenting on anyone's claim until all are in. Agreed?

[MagnaofIllusion]

When we massclaim, we need to avoid commenting on anyone's claim until all are in. Agreed?

Agreed 100%.

[Jahudo]

I keep forgetting this is a mini.

[Talitha]

Why are you busy arguing the use of a single word (successful) instead of addressing that you have been on every wagon, all of which resulted in a mislynch.

Because your lynch was so close to successful and you alone are in the position of knowing your alignment. Given that you think your wagon is not as important as the "successful" ones is pretty telling about your alignment.
And what would you like me to address about being on the mislynching wagons? I was actually trying to lynch scum. How many scum have YOU lynched in this game.

That we know the target was town. You haven't really opposed a popular wagon all game. The closest you got was with the MOI wagon when you said he was 'dunno'

This again is crap and scummy selective chosing of my posts. I made it extremely clear I was not going to vote for Magna when he was in danger of being lynched. That's about the best defence I'd give anyone on day 1 unless I know their meta well.

how is Jahudo’s attempt to say that a mislynch doesn’t end the game when we are in a 5 to 4 ration of Town to Scum not scummy?

Player X makes mistaken calculation in endgame, Player Y says Player X is scum for trying to mislead town or lull town into a false sense of security. I have seen this scenario a few times before. Player X is usually town, Player Y usually scum. Also scum at this point can taste victory and know exactly where they are at - they are less likely to make a genuine mistake than town, and why would they intentionally falsify the situation when it can so easily be refuted?

[Kdub]

GEORGE: I didn't get any bread.
JERRY: Just forget it, let it go.
GEORGE: Um, excuse me, I think you forgot my bread.
SOUP NAZI: Bread, two dollars extra.
GEORGE: Two dollars? But everybody in front of me got free bread.
SOUP NAZI: You want bread?
GEORGE: Yes, please.
SOUP NAZI: THREE dollars!
GEORGE: What?
SOUP NAZI: No soup for you!

Vote Count

charter (0) -
The Fonz (0) -
MagnaofIllusion (0) -
Jahudo (0) -
Haschel Cedricson (0) -
Talitha (0) -
Untrod Tripod (0) -
Kmd4390 (0) -
MacavityLock (0) -
Not Voting (9) - charter, The Fonz, MagnaofIllusion, Jahudo, Haschel Cedricson, Talitha, Untrod Tripod, Kmd4390, MacavityLock

9 votes available, 5 votes needed to lynch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because your lynch was so close to successful and you alone are in the position of knowing your alignment. Given that you think your wagon is not as important as the "successful" ones is pretty telling about your alignment.

And what would you like me to address about being on the mislynching wagons? I was actually trying to lynch scum. How many scum have YOU lynched in this game.

Emphasis added. Please indicate where I claimed this. I pretty clearly stated in 493 that my wagon was just as valid for looking at opportunistic possible scum since I know I am Town. Yet you ignore the fact that adding my wagon to the mix still does not any more players to the ‘On a Day 1 wagon and LMP Day 2 and Katsuki Day 3’ pool that contains you and Untrod. In effect you went straw-manning. Congrats.

Additionally I’ve obviously lynched no scum, as has NO-ONE. Other than rhetoric what purpose does that statement serve? The fact remains that you and Untrod both have been on all the mislynches. That bears scrutiny.

Player X makes mistaken calculation in endgame, Player Y says Player X is scum for trying to mislead town or lull town into a false sense of security. I have seen this scenario a few times before. Player X is usually town, Player Y usually scum. Also scum at this point can taste victory and know exactly where they are at –

they are less likely to make a genuine mistake than town, and why would they intentionally falsify the situation when it can so easily be refuted?

1. Is your defense that Jahudo made a math mistake in not knowing that 9 minus 1 equals 8, which is double 4? If so that’s absurd. As I have pointed out he clearly knew there were 9 remaining players in the game, as evidenced in the post I’ve been attacking. I don’t think it credible at all that Jahudo somehow couldn’t do that simple math. He’s not stupid.
2. Please explain how his response to my original accusation of ‘Whatever’ indicates he made a math error.
3. Links to the scenarios you are referencing. Especially ones that would be actually relevant to the game itself (ie me pushing a math error at LYLO as scummy when I am scum or Jahudo making a mistake at LYLO as Town)
4. Please explain how your bolded assertion that Town are more likely than Scum to make errors is valid. Do you have evidence of that or is it just your opinion?

[Kdub]

Kmd4390 and Haschel Cedricson have been prodded. I am giving both of them a warning that they will be replaced if they need to be prodded again any time soon.

[Jahudo]

The "4 out of 9" statement was directed at the 4 or 5 non-mafia that will not be lynched today. For them it IS a 50% chance. Its only a different number for 1 townie, in the scenario where they are lynched. But they already know they are town so the statistic wouldn't apply anyway.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The "4 out of 9" statement was directed at the 4 or 5 non-mafia that will not be lynched today. For them it IS a 50% chance. Its only a different number for 1 townie, in the scenario where they are lynched. But they already know they are town so the statistic wouldn't apply anyway.

I think you are misunderstanding my point. I'm not trying to argue that you use of 4 of 9 in calculating percentages. I'm simply stating that it was clear when you made the initial 'a mislynch doesn't cost us the game' statement that you knew there were only 9 players left.

[Kmd4390]

Same thing I've said all along still applies. I need to be awake enough at 3 or 4 am before I can catch up. I've never been replaced and don't plan on it ever happening, kdub.

[Jahudo]

I'm simply stating that it was clear when you made the initial 'a mislynch doesn't cost us the game' statement that you knew there were only 9 players left.

Of course I did, that's why I said it. You are making less and less sense to me the more you are trying to dig into what I'm saying. I think you are pulling at straws now.

[Untrod Tripod]

The following players need to make their suspicions know in their next post

–

Haschel, Untrod, and KMD.

--

As for the mass-claim I would suggest that once all suspicions are on record that Untrod starts the process and we Popcorn from there. Thoughts?

I'm all for the mass-claim. Do you want to do an ability claim with it, or just a name-claim?

For my scum-reads, I feel that Jahudo, Herschel and Magnaface all warrant suspicion. Wait, you're saying, Magnaface and Jahudo have been arguing! Right, it feels scum vs. scum to me. I feel like the final scum could be in the other mega-lurkers.

I'd extremely hard for me to get reads in this game without nightkills and a general (visible) lack of abilities.

More later, unless you want to start the roleclaiming now

[MagnaofIllusion]

Popping in to say I'll likely have little access this weekend. Consider me V/LA til Monday.

[Talitha]

Again Magna, you are conveniently twisting the facts for your own scummy purposes.

Please explain

what is scummier about being on LMP TOWN (Day 2) and Katsuki TOWN (Day 3) than being on Katsuki TOWN (Day 2) and Katsuki TOWN (Day 3). BOTH are town wagons for day 2 and 3. And yet UT and I somehow bear more scrutiny than say, uh, YOU. WHY? Because they were successful?

As for the Jahudo thing, it is my opinion based on my experience. Asking me to spend my time gathering evidence and links is only worthwhile if there is a likelihood Jahudo may be lynched because of thius. So far I think you're the only one who finds it overly susoicious.

[Kmd4390]

Ok, I don't want to go into detail on everything before a massclaim, so quick suspicions and that's it. If anyone wants more, lemme know.

Scummiest first:
Talitha- Scum, as previously stated.
The Fonz peanutman - I still say scum based on Peanut's play mostly
charter - He's actually leaning toward what my scum meta on him is. It's a slight lean though. Not a top suspect, but up there.
Haschel Cedricson - No strong read one way or the other.
Untrod Tripod - I've actually been leaning more and more town as the game has gone on even though I thought he was scum earlier.
Jahudo bv310 - Slight town read. I always think Jahudo is town though.
MacavityLock - Leaning town.
MagnaofIllusion - Town based on Day 1.
Kmd4390- Der. Town.

If I had to guess the scums, Tally/Fonz/Charter and one of Haschel/Untrod/Jahudo. Mac and Magna are my strongest town reads.

[Kmd4390]

Bump?

[Haschel Cedricson]

Getting caught up.

First off, I agree with this:

When we massclaim, we need to avoid commenting on anyone's claim until all are in. Agreed?

I also disagree with Jahudo's stance towards a massclaim.

As for my top four, I'd have to go with Mac, Talitha, UT, and either Jahudo or charter, although I admit the feelings on the latter two are not very strong. I'm having a much easier time deciding who's town than I am deciding who's scummy. Fonz and MOI are at the top of that list, with kmd somewhat below those two.

Sorry about going MIA; it's been crazy busy here. Tomorrow I'll reread the Katsuki/LMP wagons.

[The Fonz]

UT, yes of course we want to start the roleclaiming now. *headdesk* Fullclaim, please.

[charter]

Waiting for massclaim to start...

[MacavityLock]

Yes, waiting on UT and popcorn.

[Untrod Tripod]

Yes, waiting on UT and popcorn.

I am Jackie Chiles, town vote manipulator. I have two one-shot abilities. One is a vote block (being shocked and chagrined, mortified and stupified, according to my role pm) and one is a one-shot proxy double vote (my opening statement, according to my role pm).

My double vote gives another player two votes and my vote block takes away someone's vote for the rest of the day. Both abilities change the voting threshold as if we were adding or subtracting another player.


Take it away MacavityLock.