Mini 1096 - Seinfeld Mafia (Game Over)

[The Fonz]

@Magna: That there isn't yet a deadline doesn't mean there isn't ever going to be one.

in a 8-4 set-up their is NO WAY the scum could possibly have a Nightkill considering the make-up of Town we know at this juncture is scummy. I'm serious about this. Even with 4 Goons having normal Nightkills would mean Town would have to be almost exclusively PRs. Yet we've already lynched 3 VTs.

I don't know how you can be so confident that's its the other way. What I know comes from my background here. A) scum are supposed to have a faction kill in every mafia game and B) I ran an 8:4 setup with scum nightkill. Its supposed to happen like that and it can happen.

Right, but three straight nights without kills suggests it isn't happening, as does three straight VT flips.

The fact that you tried to play off the loss possibilities of a mislynch tonight is scummy.

I gave my opinion as an opinion, complete with uncertainties where I looked for the best possible scenario because I'm trying to figure out what I don't know for a fact. But you gave your rebuttal as a statement that you already figured it out and know how to proceed without any open discussion. So you are the one who looks like they know what would happen if we mislynch, which is something only scum would know.

YOU'RE SCUM FOR DISAGREEING WITH ME ON GAME THEORY! NO, YOU'RE SCUM FOR DISAGREEING WITH

ME!

If you are talking about me not putting a warning label on my opinions, then you would sound ridiculous to me. My opinion is that we better be able to lynch scum today, based on what we know, or we deserve to lose as town and I would gladly accept that loss. I know that if we are able to redeem ourselves a little today, and survive to tomorrow, we should not be back to the worst case scenario with all our power roles out there and vulnerable. I would rather have the momentum moving forward, find scum connections and lynch right again.

You're both basically accusing each other of having inside knowledge for being firm in your beliefs and stating them with some degree of hyperbole.

That said, Jahudo, if the scum DO have a kill, and have somehow been stopped three times, that implies nearly every town player is a PR. That would imply that the scum have to make a large number of fake power claims, and the more power claims they make, the more likely they are to fuck up one or more, not to mention the possibility of this web of town night actions confirming a player or two.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Mac, KMD, Charter, Tal, Haschel, and KMD – get your asses in here and play. You can’t all be scum lurking.

--

@Magna: That there isn't yet a deadline doesn't mean there isn't ever going to be one.

I agree, but basing our approach in an environment with no deadline based solely on the possibility that one may appear isn’t efficient, IMO.

--

I don't know how you can be so confident that's its the other way. What I know comes from my background here. A) scum are supposed to have a faction kill in every mafia game and B) I ran an 8:4 setup with scum nightkill. Its supposed to happen like that and it can happen.

I’m confident based on what we actually know to be true (3 dead VTs), what I know about my role, and general common sense.

A. The defining characteristic of Mafia is that scum are the informed minority. That’s it. Nightkills are common but aren’t required for a Mafia game. Look at Mykonian’s recent 9 player game HERE. 7 Town 2 Scum no Nightkill. Still Mafia.
B. Explain about this 8:4 game you ran. Did it have a single Mafia faction or two Mafia factions. With cross-kill possibilities it makes sense for scum in a 8:2:2 game to have Nightkills. Without cross-kill possibilities it doesn’t really make sense at all based on what we know.

If scum have a Nightkill Day 2 is MYLO if the Day 1 lynch is a mislynch and the Night 1 kill successful. Mafiascum site norms generally indicate games shouldn’t likely end on Night 2 if the scum are winning. 3 mislynches is the general standard. So for a cohesive 4 player scum faction to have a Nightkill Town would have to be packed to the gills for site norms to even have a chance to apply. And we know that 3/8 of the Town is Vanilla. Plus my role is far from useful based on what I perceive the set-up to be.

I gave my opinion as an opinion, complete with uncertainties where I looked for the best possible scenario because I'm trying to figure out what I don't know for a fact.

You stated that a mislynch would not necessarily cost the Town the game and that scum had to have some way to break the deadlock. I pointed out how this is completely wrong. Your response? Whatever.

Again .. I think trying to minimize the perception that this is LYLO is scummy. Town absolutely has to be on its toes.

What are you calling scummy in this second one? Using something as an excuse for what? I don't understand you.

I’m saying your statement that we should wait on a Mass-claim is scummy.

This is LYLO. Regardless of our odds of successfully lynching Scum (which on a pure random basis is 4/9, or less than 50%) if we don’t mass-claim and do mislynch the game is over and there is no tomorrow to mass claim in.

Furthermore a mass-claim would very likely increase the random chance lynch above 4/9. So there is no reason to put it off.

Unless of course you are scum without a fake-claim and don’t want to risk botching one.

So your attempt to push mass-claim back is scummy.

[Kdub]

JERRY: You're crazy.
KRAMER: Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
JERRY: It's impossible!
KRAMER: Is it? Or is it so possible that your head is spinning like a top?
JERRY: It can't be.
KRAMER: Can it? Or is your entire world just crashing down all around you?
JERRY: Alright, that's enough.

Vote Count

charter (0) -
The Fonz (0) -
MagnaofIllusion (0) -
Jahudo (0) -
Haschel Cedricson (0) -
Talitha (0) -
Untrod Tripod (0) -
Kmd4390 (0) -
MacavityLock (0) -
Not Voting (9) - charter, The Fonz, MagnaofIllusion, Jahudo, Haschel Cedricson, Talitha, Untrod Tripod, Kmd4390, MacavityLock

9 votes available, 5 votes needed to lynch.

[Untrod Tripod]

As far as theory discussion about town PRs and scumkills goes: let's not forgot that Seinfeld was a show that purported to be "about nothing". It would make a lot of sense, themewise if scum had no kills and all of the town PRs to be largely useless (as Magna softclaimed)

Plus my role is far from useful based on what I perceive the set-up to be.

The points made about Jahudo are correct I think, and his attempts to increase the chance for a mislynch by trying to convince people that this is MYLO are troubling. Hmm...

[Jahudo]

I'm not going to keep arguing over this points. Its really distracting from the real job today.

If the majority of people want to massclaim, that's the groups decision and I will go along with it. For all we know there is no role that will make a difference one way or the other.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm not going to keep arguing over this points. Its really distracting from the real job today.

Funny, because I thought it was leading quite nicely to rooting out at least one of the gang of Four.

[Kdub]

charter and Haschel Cedricson have been prodded.

[Talitha]

I'm back from beach, luckily there was only torrential rain for a couple of the days, I didn't have time to get too sunburnt.

I'll get properly caught up on the game within the next few hours. I think that I have played pretty poorly thus far.

[Talitha]

The first mini I played was an 8-4 setup and scum had a kill each night. It seemed nicely balanced, but most town were non vanilla (and 2 scum were weakened). I'm not sure if I've played in any other 8-4 setup since. I have to say in this game it's looking increasingly likely that scum can't kill or are severely limited in either their number of available kills or the circumstances in which they can kill. UT's point that the show was about "nothing" is a good one I think.

Anyway, 12 players, 4 scum and 3 mislynches... whichever way you look at it, town is in trouble. I wish I could share Jahudo's optimism that we should be able to lynch scum today because our odds are so good, but we only have 5 townies left in the game and need 5 votes to lynch a scum so I'm not filled with confidence, myself. My feeling is that at this point we need all cards on the table, because we can't safely run someone up to L-1 or L-2 to put pressure on them, make them spill, etc, because if they're town scum will hammer and that's probably game over.

[The Fonz]

Nice IIOA post there Tally.

[Talitha]

What's that?

[Talitha]

"Information Instead of Analysis (IIoA)" I'm sorry, but I thought the current issue of concern is whether we are mass-claiming. I have a bone to pick with you, actually, but it was suggested we don't give people information so they can claim to match suspicions. I don't particularly care whether people wait upon voicing their suspicions, but can't see a harm in waiting for others to weigh in at least.

[The Fonz]

Right, so we've got five major wagons, four on dead town, one on a player of unknown alignment, to analyse. I'm counting the two Katsuki wagons as separate entities.

Magna wagon:

Katsuki,

MacavityLock, charter,

rajrhcpfreak,

peanutman aka Moi

LynchMePls

Rajrhcpfreak

wagon: Talitha, Haschel Cedricson, MagnaofIllusion, Kmd4390, Untrod Tripod, bv310 aka Jahudo,

Katsuki

LynchMePls

wagon - The Fonz,

Katsuki,

Jahudo, Talitha, Kmd4390, Untrod Tripod

Katsuki

day two wagon: MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls, charter, MacavityLock, Haschel Cedricson

Katsuki

day three wagon: MagnaofIllusion, MacavityLock, Untrod Tripod, charter, Talitha, Haschel Cedricson


From my perspective, there can only have been a maximum of two scum on the Magna wagon. That means there has to be AT LEAST two scum on Rajr. I don't for a second think there were no scum on Magna, because six-man townwagons in a game with only eight town players is virtually unheard of. In that very unlikely event, Magna would almost certainly have to be scum himself. Nonetheless, I'm going to effectively discount that possibility for now. That means that there is a maximum of three scum on Raj. From which I conclude Tally, plus at least one and no more than two of the following group: Haschel, UT, BV/Jahudo, and possibly Magna. I have a pretty solid townread on Kmd.

One, other, or both of MacLock and Charter are scum. Charter is definitely the individually scummier of the two. Given the overall crappiness of the wagon, I really don't think MOI is scum if both are. If only one is, that means that 3 out of 4 scum were pushing Rajr over MOI, and that kind of suggests deliberate counterwagon.

So:

I'm pretty confident KMD is town.

Most likey Scumgroup is therefore imo: Tally, charter, precisely one out of the Magna/MacLock pair, 1/3 of Haschel, UT, Jahudo.

Tally has been on every successful wagon so far.

Along with Tally, the only other player to support the LMP wagon followed by the Kat wagon was Untrod Tripod.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm kind of embarrassed about pushing two mislynches. Will have to do a careful reread today

We are nearing 48 hours since this post. Your only post since has been to piggyback off my Jahudo comments. Active lurking?

--

Fonz’s 487

is a nice summary in leiu of a full VC Analysis. Quite frankly I don’t see the point in doing one with no dead scum in the mix.

I’d like everyone (other than Fonz, who already has) to give their Top four scum picks so we can proceed with a Mass claim afterwards. Any objections?

From my perspective I think it is impossible for there to be no scum on my wagon. So at least one of Mac, Charter and Fonz has to be scum.

Untrod’s push for Rajr Day 1 followed by his explanation for his hammer Day 2 combined with his general play make him my top pick.

The group of chronic non-content providers this game – Mac, Tal, Haschel. At least one scum has to be in there.

The observation that Tal has been on every successful wagon is a good one.

Jahudo’s recent play has given me a moderate scum-read on him.

Based on what I know and the game as a whole I’d place my likely scum-team as

Untrod, Tal, and two of Jahudo / Mac / Hachel.

[Jahudo]

My scum picks are KMD, Tal, MacLock and HC.

At some point today I'd like to know what MacLock had on Magna way back on day 1. My read on Mac largely depends on this.

[MacavityLock]

That means that there is a maximum of three scum on Raj. From which I conclude Tally, plus at least one and no more than two of the following group: Haschel, UT, BV/Jahudo, and possibly Magna.

...

Tally has been on every successful wagon so far.

UT was also on all 3 successful wagons. Why give him more of a pass then Tally?

My top 2 right now are Tally and UT. I'm thinking it's them plus 2 of Fonz, Jahudo, Magna, and charter.

I see Jahudo's point against mass-claim, don't agree with it, also don't think it's

that

scummy.

At some point today I'd like to know what MacLock had on Magna way back on day 1. My read on Mac largely depends on this.

You will find out today sometime. I pwomise.

[Talitha]

Please, if you're town, please don't buy the argument that if you're on all of the successful wagons you must be scum. For a start what is it about a "successful" wagon that makes the vote more scummy than on an unsuccessful wagon? This word is being thrown around by scum to try and add oomph to their case, but it is irrelevant. Secondly, what decent scum would make sure they are voting for all of the townie wagons. I know, I know it's the dreaded acronym that I despise, but seriously. How hard is it to vote away from one of the townie wagons to make yourself look OK later. ONLY SCUM have the information to be able to do this. I've been scum in many many games and I'd be surprised if you can find one where I'm on 3 townie wagons in a row. Scum 101, seriously.

[Talitha]

The observation that Tal has been on every successful wagon is a good one.

MOI, what is it about being on a successful wagon that is scummier than being on your Day 1 wagon, for example?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I see Jahudo's point against mass-claim, don't agree with it, also don't think it's that scummy.

That fence post must be starting to hurt. Explain again how trying to say that we aren’t in absolute danger of losing this game if we mislynch isn’t scummy with a 5 to 4 current Mafia to Town ratio.

--

MOI, what is it about being on a successful wagon that is scummier than being on your Day 1 wagon, for example?

I never said it was. But since no-one on my wagon was on both the LMP Day 2 and Kats Day 3 it stands to reason that both you and Untrod bear strong scrutiny.

I also note that your posts at 491 and 492 lack your scum reads that are necessary before the Mass claim. Why is that?

[Talitha]

MOI, you distinctly reused Fonz's words "successful wagon" and said it was a good observation. My question therefore remains - what is the word "successful" doing there? Fonz should feel free to answer it also.

I didn't realise we were doing scum reads first, then mass claim. I guess I misunderstood the plan when I read it.

Fonz is my best guess at scum. Post 493 he defends Kats by saying that 'noobish reasoning' is not the same as scummy play. (Turns out he is right. How he could tell Kats was town from Kats' play in this game is remarkable if he's town, but I don't think this is the case.) But the damning thing to me is that he doesn't show more than a hint of suspicion towards Magna for pushing the Kats wagon, even though he points out that ABR used the exact same argument "as scum" when Fonz (in his own words) "attacked him correctly". But in this game does Fonz "attack"? No, instead he gives us a lesson on play saying merely that "people need to learn the difference" rather than calling Magna scum for pushing the lynch on someone Fonz apparently perceives as playing noobishly rather than scummily. I think Fonz & Magna are scum together. I know this is a turnaround for me on Magna, but I think I've been deceived by some of his townish posts and how comfortable he seems in this game. Magna is now trying to turn suspicion on Jahudo for something that on the surface could be scummy, but I'm not particularly buying it this time.

If people who aren't in my top two want me to give positions on everyone, I will. But looking at who is asking for it, I'll pass, for now.

[charter]

Definitely massclaim. Top four scumspects are KMD, Tally, UT, Magna/Mac.

Kmd has done pretty much nothing but argue with Raj, then stand by as all his "town reads" have been lynched.
Tally is on each new wagon with less reason than she had for being on the last wagon.
I find just about every post of UT scummy.
Magna/Mac, not really sure about, don't feel anyone is scummy.

I'll get some evidence of these reads up, as well.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOI, you distinctly reused Fonz's words "successful wagon" and said it was a good observation. My question therefore remains - what is the word "successful" doing there? Fonz should feel free to answer it also.

I used the phrase that Fonz used because that is what he used. Nothing more nothing less.

Why are you busy arguing the use of a single word (successful) instead of addressing that you have been on every wagon, all of which resulted in a mislynch. I specifically grant you that it is indeed possible for Town to do so. However you behavior Day 2 (hopping around between the wagons which I want to review) leads me to believe, at this stage, you could be scum.

Magna is now trying to turn suspicion on Jahudo for something that on the surface could be scummy, but I'm not particularly buying it this time.

Same question I posed to Mac to you as well – how is Jahudo’s attempt to say that a mislynch doesn’t end the game when we are in a 5 to 4 ration of Town to Scum not scummy?

But in this game does Fonz "attack"? No, instead he gives us a lesson on play saying merely that "people need to learn the difference" rather than calling Magna scum for pushing the lynch on someone Fonz apparently perceives as playing noobishly rather than scummily

I disagree with your conclusion but the point you are making here I agree with. It’s not particularly a Town perspective for Fonz to link me to ABR as scum in another game via my play and then let it disappear as if it never happened.

[MagnaofIllusion]

The following players have shared their suspicions before Mass-claim

–

Fonz, MoI, Jahudo, Mac, Tal and Charter.

The following players need to make their suspicions know in their next post

–

Haschel, Untrod, and KMD.

--

As for the mass-claim I would suggest that once all suspicions are on record that Untrod starts the process and we Popcorn from there. Thoughts?

[The Fonz]

That means that there is a maximum of three scum on Raj. From which I conclude Tally, plus at least one and no more than two of the following group: Haschel, UT, BV/Jahudo, and possibly Magna.

...

Tally has been on every successful wagon so far.

UT was also on all 3 successful wagons. Why give him more of a pass then Tally?

Because I didn't think he was. My first draft of that post actually contained the word 'only-' (I lost it when my net went down trying to post, and re-wrote from memory). I was saying that tally struck me as the only player to have done that when I looked through to try to work out how many wagons each player was on. Hence me pointing out that UT was the only other player on LMP and Kat. Checking, you are of course correct, with the accompanying corollary that it makes UT look very scummy as well (guess I need to re-read HOW he jumped those wagons).

I see Jahudo's point against mass-claim, don't agree with it, also don't think it's

that

scummy.

Basically my point. 'Let's do everything in our power to lynch right at LyLo' vs 'It's little benefit to lynch right at lylo if we destroy our chances of lynching correctly after that' is an argument between two positions that have certain amounts of logic behind them.

Please, if you're town, please don't buy the argument that if you're on all of the successful wagons you must be scum. For a start what is it about a "successful" wagon that makes the vote more scummy than on an unsuccessful wagon?

That we know the target was town. You haven't really opposed a popular wagon all game. The closest you got was with the MOI wagon when you said he was 'dunno' but you thought LMP was scummier. I have no idea who your town 'reads' are.

This word is being thrown around by scum to try and add oomph to their case, but it is irrelevant. Secondly, what decent scum would make sure they are voting for all of the townie wagons. I know, I know it's the dreaded acronym that I despise, but seriously.

You yourself said you were playing badly. Why do we have to assume this is possible as town, but not as scum? And yes, it is that acronym, and in the kind of position when scum seem to have most motive to use it as well.

How hard is it to vote away from one of the townie wagons to make yourself look OK later. ONLY SCUM have the information to be able to do this. I've been scum in many many games and I'd be surprised if you can find one where I'm on 3 townie wagons in a row. Scum 101, seriously.

I've seen decent scum be blatantly scummy and defend it with the 'I'm better than this' WIFOM before. And I was on three straight town lynches in my last scum game. Not buying it.

[MacavityLock]

I see Jahudo's point against mass-claim, don't agree with it, also don't think it's that scummy.

That fence post must be starting to hurt. Explain again how trying to say that we aren’t in absolute danger of losing this game if we mislynch isn’t scummy with a 5 to 4 current Mafia to Town ratio.

No fence post. I don't agree with it, but I see how it could possible come from town. Therefore, his anti-mass-claim post is pretty much null for me.

Explain again how trying to say that we aren’t in absolute danger of losing this game if we mislynch isn’t scummy with a 5 to 4 current Mafia to Town ratio.

Did he say that? I don't see that.

So I don't really see a compelling argument to massclaim. If scum do have NKs then we have awesome protection/blocking and should not massclaim to out them. If scum dont have NKs then we are most likely looking at an underpowered town with little to gain from massclaim.

I also think that with 4 of 9 players being in the mafia, we already have pretty good odds of not going down to 50%.

I see "our odds aren't horrible". Which is true. I don't think I've been in a LYLO before with a blind 44% of hitting scum. I see "protect our PRs". Which is not an uncommon reaction when discussing claims.

His opinion is wrong

in my opinion

, but right now for me it doesn't make him scummier than he already was, much of which is residual bv. However, depending on what we find from the eventual mass-claim, Jahudo's opinion may become a non-null-tell.

----

As for the mass-claim I would suggest that once all suspicions are on record that Untrod starts the process and we Popcorn from there. Thoughts?

Works for me.

----

Checking, you are of course correct, with the accompanying corollary that it makes UT look very scummy as well (guess I need to re-read HOW he jumped those wagons).

Please make us aware of what you find here.