Mini 1096 - Seinfeld Mafia (Game Over)

[The Fonz]

Fonz is trying to find a reason to vote haschel and is voting untrod. Obvjahudobuddy.

Erm, hello? The point of the vote was to prove I can't vote. Why wouldn't I 'vote' Untrod, when if he's telling the truth it can't affect him? Are you paying any attention at all? I could have self-voted, it would have achieved the same thing.

[The Fonz]

2) hascheltown claimed his role a jahudoscum countered a bad claim to get a mislynch

How are you separating bad from scum in this case?

Scum is Option 3.

I mean how can you or anyone besides myself tell Haschel gave a bad claim and not a scum fake claim?

You seem to be missing the point. There are three options here. Hasch is scum, you're scum, you're both scum.

Option 1 is the Haschel is scum fakeclaiming, you're town legitimately counterclaiming option.
Option two is the Haschel is town and you fakeclaimed opportunistically scenario.
Option three is the double scum option where you counterclaimed your buddy.

So option two states 'Haschel's claim is bad' because in the scenario (the only one of the three) where he's town, that's what it is.

Really, we can ignore option three today, because in that case, lynching either one is win. The question here is: is one or two more likely?

[Jahudo]

KMD said #2 makes sense and he prefers my lynch. I am asking him why HC's claim looks bad town and not bad scum.

[Kmd4390]

2) hascheltown claimed his role a jahudoscum countered a bad claim to get a mislynch

How are you separating bad from scum in this case?

Scum is Option 3.

I mean how can you or anyone besides myself tell Haschel gave a bad claim and not a scum fake claim?

That is why I listed three options.

UT's point about Haschel saying "night" would be a horrible reason for hypo-scum to think they could attack the claim itself. Its like saying villager instead of vanilla townie, everyone knows what is intended because its in the OP. Scum are aware of the OP. So the tell is not on one's alignment but how closely they are paying attention to the flavor of the game.

Or someone creating a fakeclaim who subconsciously thinks "I'll say that I do this every night" and forgets that it needs to be changed due to the fact that this game is nightless. I dunno. I can see both sides of this one though. The same "slip" is just as possible with a town player who is simply claiming his role and forgot to make the change in his mind. I'm basically not using it as a tell one way or the other because it can just as easily go either way.

Erm, hello? The point of the vote was to prove I can't vote. Why wouldn't I 'vote' Untrod, when if he's telling the truth it can't affect him? Are you paying any attention at all? I could have self-voted, it would have achieved the same thing.

My bad, forgot about that. The fact that you claim to see the point on Jahudo, but still want to find a way to make the case on Haschel work still stands though.

KMD said #2 makes sense and he prefers my lynch. I am asking him why HC's claim looks bad town and not bad scum.

Yeah, the claim itself is null IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So, all Day 1, I was pushing you towards a claim. Yes, I was role-fishing. I would have accepted Davola, Vig, but would have kept my eye out for SK leanings. If you claimed Davola, Vanilla or any name other than Davola, I probably would be back on you.

The more I review this the more I dislike it.

1. Town thought process, regardless of Meta (which isn’t really valid as I’ve properly breadcrumbed in MANY games as Town when a PR), would be to observe behavior that might align with a Serial Killer role not to try to force a Vig claim immediately Day 1. Also, the fact that you specifically picked up on my breadcrumb also makes me wary given I apparently have been blocked at least once (if Haschel is Town) and maybe more often. Scum with no Nightkill would certainly worry about a Vig.

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Fonz is trying to find a reason to vote haschel and is voting untrod. Obvjahudobuddy.

1. You do understand that he was using that vote to test Untrod’s ability to manipulate his vote total, correct?
2. You do understand that by voting Untrod and not either Jahudo or Haschel he helps remove the possibility of a quick-lynch by scum, right?

Preview edit shows this has been addressed.

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As for your last comment, my activity level is cyclical, and apparently right now I'm at the top of the cycle. You of all the players in here should know this.

Yes I am aware you have been a less than motivated poster in the past (Secret Invasion Mafia). It is one of the reasons I’ve not hammered your lurky behavior so far. But I am troubled because your lack of contribution in that game had a significant impact, IMO, in helping scum win (via not being around to help prevent bad deadline mislynchs of Town led by scum). If you are Town this game your low activity again hasn’t really helped you work towards your Win Condition.

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@Magna: When you said you received no information on anyone targeting LMP, did you get a PM from the mod or not? Because the way my role works I wouldn't know if I was roleblocked or not.

Please clear up for me something about your role Jahudo. Is it correct that the only day you received a PM from Mod in regards to your ability is today seeing Untrod?

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@Untrod

– Why specifically did you choose to use the Minus vote version of your Power on Fonz? He wasn’t one of your suspicions in ISO 29 thus I assume you have a Town read on him.

--

On the 1 versus 1 situation –

We know that one of either Haschel or Jahudo MUST be scum. There is not way both are Town. So lynching them at worst is a 50/50 shot, and perhaps greater if they are gambitting scum (which I doubt and really isn’t relative to today).

As for the flavor of each claim I am in a Toss-up. Nemesis, with Haschel, fits very well into the context of Jerry and Newman as arch-enemies. Mail Route, with Jahudo, makes flavor sense as well since Newman is a mailman and demonstrated in the series that he has no qualms about bending rules to achieve his goals.

Looking at the claimed roles –

If we assume the only Non-Town PR claim is either Jahudo or Haschel we have the following set-up.

1 Neighborizor (1 shot?)
1 Vote Manipulator
1 Watcher
1 Weak Cop or 1 Weak Tracker
4 VT

against

4 Scum.

Is this balanced from either standpoint (Town Cop or Town Tracker)? I’m not inclined to try to calculate any EV for the setup.

Scum have a pretty strong numerical base (33% at the start of the game).
Scum ostensibly have no Nightkill at all or simply one that is only triggered under certain circumstances.
We don’t know whether scum has Daytalk or not.

4 unified scum in a Mini is VERY strong, especially given the win rates for the standard 3 player scum team. Not having a Nightkill, on the other hand weakens the team.

If scum consists of 4 Goons then the mass of Town PRs could have potentially broken the set-up by Mass Claiming Day 1, No lynching while powers are confirmed, and then lynching from the VTs.

I’ll have to think about where I stand on this. And if more than one claimed PR is scum I really have to wrap my head around how balanced that might be.

KMD at 553 has reasons to think 2 is a valid option. See Harry Potter Mafia, specifically the posting in the link. In that game KMD and I were scum partners. I went out of my way to avoid the Mod provided fake-claim for my role (which was Hagrid, a pretty well established character) and counterclaimed Nobody Special’s VT claim of Stan Shunpike. I did so because

A. Nobody Special really had lurked through much of the game and built no Town cred.
B. His claim was on its face bad. It would have made him the only Vanilla the game and he also listed Stan as the driver of the Knight Bus, not the conductor. Of course his claim was 100% correct but was done poorly.
C. Lynching him sealed the game.

Does this sound at all familiar? It is one of the reasons why I’ve immediately backed off voting Haschel immediately (along with the Role-Blocked Watch possibilities).

[Untrod Tripod]

@Untrod – Why specifically did you choose to use the Minus vote version of your Power on Fonz? He wasn’t one of your suspicions in ISO 29 thus I assume you have a Town read on him.

Being as how difficult it is this game to get a solid/reliable read on anyone, I'd rather waste the vote block than use it on a town player in a mylo situation. I had to choose one of my abilities to burn, so I went with that one. If we prove Jahudo/Herchel's ability today by lynching the right player, I will know I can use my doublevote on the confirmed player.

[The Fonz]

Looking at the claimed roles –

If we assume the only Non-Town PR claim is either Jahudo or Haschel we have the following set-up.

1 Neighborizor (1 shot?)
1 Vote Manipulator
1 Watcher
1 Weak Cop or 1 Weak Tracker
4 VT

I'm not sure I'm willing to buy your assumption, at least in the Haschel-scum setup. Assume Jahudo is truthful. Four confirmable town roles. If Haschel is scum, one of the others is scum too, almost certainly. If Jahudo's a scum tracker, then maybe I can buy four town PR. On the other hand, if Jahudo is scum, bear in mind charter's 'confirmation' comes from Jahudo.

against

4 Scum.

Roleblocker pretty much has to be there if you're genuine, no? If Hasch is truthful, you were RBed day one. If Jahudo is (or even if he's scum with the tracking ability) then you must be blocked right now. Therefore, MOItown implies RB.

Is this balanced from either standpoint (Town Cop or Town Tracker)? I’m not inclined to try to calculate any EV for the setup.

I'd say the Jahudotown version is unbalanced in favor of town, as noted. Although charter is still as scummy as F***, so it's not like it's impossible Jahudo is the truthteller here.

Scum have a pretty strong numerical base (33% at the start of the game).
Scum ostensibly have no Nightkill at all or simply one that is only triggered under certain circumstances.
We don’t know whether scum has Daytalk or not.

Worth noting I've never seen a nightless game without scum daytalk. I think the main thing in balancing a game is mislynches to win, and four is quite a generous number to town, though I take your point about scum having the starting numbers. The inability to remove town who are onto them counterbalances that, though, as well as allowing the town more mislynches.

One of my finest achievements on site was winning a 6:3:3 vanilla nightless game as scum. We had to get through six straight lynches (well, five and a modkill) without losing a single member to win that game.

4 unified scum in a Mini is VERY strong, especially given the win rates for the standard 3 player scum team. Not having a Nightkill, on the other hand weakens the team.

I'd say the lack of nightkill is more valuable to the town than the extra member to scum, easily. I'm not sure what relevance this is to the specific Q at hand, though.

[Talitha]

UT's point about Haschel saying "night" would be a horrible reason for hypo-scum to think they could attack the claim itself. Its like saying villager instead of vanilla townie, everyone knows what is intended because its in the OP. Scum are aware of the OP. So the tell is not on one's alignment but how closely they are paying attention to the flavor of the game.

I somewhat agree, but UT also said he was absolutely, definitely voting for Haschel because of it. If UT and Haschel are both town that's an opportunity scum surely couldn't resist.

Did you see my Qs in #568, Jahudo?

I wonder if we should use FOSes instead of votes today (or unbolded votes or something). I'd definitely like to see people's intentions laid out, before anyone actually votes.

[The Fonz]

My bad, forgot about that. The fact that you claim to see the point on Jahudo, but still want to find a way to make the case on Haschel work still stands though.

Are you trying to suggest that it's somehow obvious that it's Jahudo or both rather than Hasch? As far as I can see, this is a pretty damn tricky call, and I want to be meticulous in considering all possibilities. What the hell is wrong with that?

[charter]

Jahudo and charter, your direct opinions of each other based on Neighbor talk?

Pretty town, I thought his responses to my questions were legit.

Haschel's claim definitely looks like the shoddier of the two. He's who I plan on voting.

After Haschel, I'm leaning most towards KMD as scum. Specifically for how he accused Fonz of being scummy for voting today, and once it was pointed out why he should, he immediately came back and said 'oh you're still scummy for such and such else'.

[MacavityLock]

So, all Day 1, I was pushing you towards a claim. Yes, I was role-fishing. I would have accepted Davola, Vig, but would have kept my eye out for SK leanings. If you claimed Davola, Vanilla or any name other than Davola, I probably would be back on you.

The more I review this the more I dislike it.

1. Town thought process, regardless of Meta (which isn’t really valid as I’ve properly breadcrumbed in MANY games as Town when a PR), would be to observe behavior that might align with a Serial Killer role not to try to force a Vig claim immediately Day 1. Also, the fact that you specifically picked up on my breadcrumb also makes me wary given I apparently have been blocked at least once (if Haschel is Town) and maybe more often. Scum with no Nightkill would certainly worry about a Vig.

The thought process here was to lock you into a claim early; that way, we could at least prevent a you-SK from going off the reservation, do our best to prevent you-scum from building fake actions around other peoples' eventual claims, etc.

Now, I can't really deny that this looks bad, in light of no kills so far. However, a few points in rebuttal. First, were I scum, would I have at least somewhat tried to protect you with

I'd prefer if he gets hammered without claiming. That'd show him.

No. That will not happen.

Second, you saw me in ACoK. Don't you think I can do better than blind meta to manufacture a case on someone?

Third, if I'm scum and know that we've got a RB, don't I keep my breadcrumb read on you entirely under my hat and just recommend the block on you?

I get your issue, but please make sure to examine my actions from the me-town perspective to see that my play Day 1 was consistent with the knowledge that a VT had on Day 1.

----

I would like to take this time to remind people as we deliberate that Jahudo replaced bv.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I had to choose one of my abilities to burn, so I went with that one. If we prove Jahudo/Herchel's ability today by lynching the right player, I will know I can use my doublevote on the confirmed player.

Please explain how either Jahudo or Haschel is confirmed by the other flipping scum. Is it likely both are scum together? No, but it is a possibility that would preclude the other from being confirmed.

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@Fonz re 581

– The portion you responded to where I discussed balance was meant to be forward thinking. You are correct that it really doesn’t apply to today’s 1 v 1 discussion.

Roleblocker pretty much has to be there if you're genuine, no? If Hasch is truthful, you were RBed day one. If Jahudo is (or even if he's scum with the tracking ability) then you must be blocked right now. Therefore, MOItown implies RB.

I agree that it does 100% imply that a Role-blocker exists. That wasn’t the point of my post. I was trying to weigh whether it made sense from a balance standpoint that 3 of the 4 claimed PRs would be Town when comparing it to 4 Goons. Because given the relative weakness of the Town (Neighborizer doesn’t prove alignment, Watcher is very gimped with no Nightkill to catch and likely only 1 Scum PR (RB), the Vote Manipulator can advantage Scum easily based on the reads, and both the Tracker and Cop claims are Weak versions) if from a balance standpoint 4 Goons make sense as a set-up the presence of a Scum RB in my mind more or less clears the remaining PRs in my mind.

Again … that’s speculation about tomorrow and isn’t really applicable to the 1 v 1.

Worth noting I've never seen a nightless game without scum daytalk.

It’s also worth noting that I was stupid as all get out to question that. There has to be scum Daytalk in the game as there are no Nights.

Yes, my brain did take a vacation on that point.

--

I somewhat agree, but UT also said he was absolutely, definitely voting for Haschel because of it. If UT and Haschel are both town that's an opportunity scum surely couldn't resist.

This is a very good point.

--

Now, I can't really deny that this looks bad, in light of no kills so far. However, a few points in rebuttal. First, were I scum, would I have at least somewhat tried to protect you with

This is a WIFOM argument. As Town or scum you would want to portray yourself as Pro-Town through your defined stances. Making sure someone isn’t lynched before claiming is Pro Town. Especially

And I know you well enough to know you certainly can put on a Pro-Town front as scum. Impin’ Ain’t Easy, afterall.

Third, if I'm scum and know that we've got a RB, don't I keep my breadcrumb read on you entirely under my hat and just recommend the block on you?

Except pressing said Meta read (which after the fact I’m going to say again was PURE crap) and getting enough sheep Scum-Mac might have been able to actually force a claim to be assured that I was the Vig they feared. Had you actually gotten my proper claim perhaps the Block is used look to block some other role like Cop.

I get your issue, but please make sure to examine my actions from the me-town perspective to see that my play Day 1 was consistent with the knowledge that a VT had on Day 1.

My problem is that I don’t see it as a very Townie thought process that as a VT you saw I was familiar with Seinfeld flavor, saw my breadcrumb, and thought the best course of action was to gambit about having a scum read to out a potential Vig.

I would like to take this time to remind people as we deliberate that Jahudo replaced bv.

Also Fonz replaced peanutman. Is there a specific reason you see that you needed to reiterate knowledge available in the first post?

[MacavityLock]

Now, I can't really deny that this looks bad, in light of no kills so far. However, a few points in rebuttal. First, were I scum, would I have at least somewhat tried to protect you with

This is a WIFOM argument. As Town or scum you would want to portray yourself as Pro-Town through your defined stances. Making sure someone isn’t lynched before claiming is Pro Town. Especially

Or I could have just let it pass right by without comment, and doing so wouldn't have made me look any more or less pro-town.

I would like to take this time to remind people as we deliberate that Jahudo replaced bv.

Also Fonz replaced peanutman. Is there a specific reason you see that you needed to reiterate knowledge available in the first post?

Because Jahudo is one of the two people who is up for getting lynched today, and I want to make sure that it doesn't get lost in the shuffle that he used to be bv, and bv was pretty scummy in his short time with us.

[Jahudo]

Jahudo: who were you going to target on Day 3? Why were you waiting until right before you hammered?

I never decided, I was just waiting for a gut feeling because I wasn't picking out any possible power roles in the game.

bv was pretty scummy in his short time with us.

No one ever voted bv, did they? I don't think so.

The general suspicion against him was lack of posts and content. He said his life was busy and he requested replacement. So where does that suspicion still stand? You think bv would lie despite not having pressure on him? That would be a stretch.

[MagnaofIllusion]

General Thoughts

–

Untrod’s proof of his role guarantees he’s not the Roleblocker as he couldn’t have RBed me and de-voted Fonz in the same day. Even if he is scum (which now, based on claims, I am leaning against) he

SHOULD NOT

be the lynch tomorrow assuming we get there. And the game doesn’t end today.

I’m close to making my decision on which way to vote today.

--

@Jahudo

– You seem to have missed the following question by me –

Please clear up for me something about your role Jahudo. Is it correct that the only day you received a PM from Mod in regards to your ability is today seeing Untrod?

--

Or I could have just let it pass right by without comment, and doing so wouldn't have made me look any more or less pro-town.

That’s true, but doesn’t really argue against my point. Your ‘Hidden Meta’ push already would have placed you under suspicion had I gotten lynched without a claim since I would have flipped Town. So letting that happen isn’t in Scum-Mac’s best interests. Thus making sure I claim would be of paramount interest. You could always explain this 'Meta' after the claim if you wanted to push my lynch then be you Town or scum. Plus as demonstrated above it would also be a move designed to help you build a little Town cred.

We're pretty much going round and round on this. My concerns, which aren't going away, is that I don't see the Town thought process as a VT to push to out a player who you suspect is a Vig (or perhaps a SK) Day 1 before we knew Scum didn't have a NK.

Because Jahudo is one of the two people who is up for getting lynched today, and I want to make sure that it doesn't get lost in the shuffle that he used to be bv, and bv was pretty scummy in his short time with us.

Please indulge me and elaborate on the bolded portion. I’d like, in your own words (and quoting is fine if you already made a strong case, although I think I would remember it), for you to show why BV was scummy.

[Jahudo]

Yes, when I tried to track the Fonz I got a pm saying I already used my action. I didn't get a pm all day 2.

It looks like there's no more trying to confirm roles or plan out future days so I'm going to vote.

Vote: HC

[Kmd4390]

Charter, I thought id made it clear that there was more to the fonz thing than the vote, but looking back at my post I guess I didn't.

Fonz, I just can't see any situation where haschel is scum with a fakeclaim given to him, who allowed a town jahudo to counterclaim him. I don't see that at all. Jahudo is scum in every theory I can come up with.

vote jahudo

[Untrod Tripod]

Charter, I thought id made it clear that there was more to the fonz thing than the vote, but looking back at my post I guess I didn't.

Fonz, I just can't see any situation where haschel is scum with a fakeclaim given to him, who allowed a town jahudo to counterclaim him. I don't see that at all. Jahudo is scum in every theory I can come up with.

vote jahudo

Unless Jahudo made an extremely good bluff, he has a tracker ability.

[Kdub]

Just to clarify, whether I acknowledged receipt of a submitted action or not has no bearing on whether that action was successful. It had to do with non-game-related factors.

[The Fonz]

Charter, I thought id made it clear that there was more to the fonz thing than the vote, but looking back at my post I guess I didn't.

Fonz, I just can't see any situation where haschel is scum with a fakeclaim given to him, who allowed a town jahudo to counterclaim him. I don't see that at all. Jahudo is scum in every theory I can come up with.

vote jahudo

It's always possible in a WIFOM situation like this, I guess, that scum would pull the WIFOM, banking on precisely this reaction from one or more town players. If Haschel is merely a goon, they might have thought it worth the gamble.

In my experience, when a claim revolves around a dead or scum roleblocker happening to have conveniently roleblocked a specific person on a given day, it's usually a lie. Actually, this is kinda important.

Magna, when did you put in your watch on D1?

[Jahudo]

Fonz, I just can't see any situation where haschel is scum with a fakeclaim given to him, who allowed a town jahudo to counterclaim him. I don't see that at all. Jahudo is scum in every theory I can come up with.

So if I'm scum I must have been given a fakeclaim too right? How many situations can you name where I would fake counter-claim when I already have a tracker role that is generally seen as town?

The thing is you can't prove how many fakeclaims scum were given. Maybe it was less than four. Maybe it was four but with only myself and Magna left on the popcorn scum would decide to pull a gambit that severely limits our discussion today. Either there would be a newman or there wouldn't be, and if there was it would still limit the discussion to only two people. HC was already a lurker in this game that hadn't done much scumhunting at all. How long would he last?

KMD has outed himself as lazy scum coasting for an easy win. He's played this way the whole game. If we lynch HC today and if flips town, KMD is the most obvious buddy. Not even pretending to consider situations.

[The Fonz]

Jahudo, you counter-claiming there as scum makes perfect sense. There are good arguments in your favor, but 'Scum couldn't possibly have deliberately counterclaimed a townie who another (presumably, given ability) town player had just declared intention to vote for' isn't one of them.

And I'd say it was pretty damn nailed on there was going to be a Newman if Hasch is lying. I mean, of all the secondary Seinfeld characters, Newman is THE one you'd have to assume would be in the game. Helen Seinfeld, Frank Costanza... there are better fakeclaims available to scum. In the scenario where he's scum, it IS absolutely necessary to explain why Hasch would WANT to be counterclaimed. That's the problem with your claim. The roleblock thing is the problem with his.

[Untrod Tripod]

KMD has outed himself as lazy scum coasting for an easy win.

Agreed

If we lynch HC today and if flips town, KMD is the most obvious buddy. Not even pretending to consider situations.

You know if HC flips town we're going to lose the game. Right?

[Jahudo]

Wel MacLock knew Magna was Joe Davola. Either he's scum or the scum also have a flavor expert who figured out Magna's breadcrumbs. Either way HC could have known he was in a position where the only one who could counter-claim him was the one ranting about not wanting to massclaim today. Suddenly the person against massclaim is the one using it to defend himself. That's essentially the case on me, yeah? I don't see it about anything I did prior to today, or that doesn't have to do with my role power.

If I was scum why was I so against massclaim if I was a tracker? Why would I be against massclaim if I was ready to counter-claim someone?

Why would I take UT's reaction to HC's claim as enough evidence that enough town would feel the same way against HC?

[MagnaofIllusion]

In my experience, when a claim revolves around a dead or scum roleblocker happening to have conveniently roleblocked a specific person on a given day, it's usually a lie. Actually, this is kinda important. Magna, when did you put in your watch on D1?

I’m not sure where you are going here but I thought I was clear about this when I posted my claim –

I sent in my choice in the immediately upon getting my role PM so it was active all Day long.

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Unless Jahudo made an extremely good bluff, he has a tracker ability.

Well there are about four situations that could have occurred.

1. He’s a Town Tracker.
2. He’s a Scum Tracker
3. He’s not a Tracker but made a very good bluff.
4. He’s not a Tracker but you are scum together so he knew it was safe to claim.

Do I think 3 or 4 are likely? Not really but I’m not ruling anything out since we are at LYLO and a single false move spells Game Over.

--

KMD has outed himself as lazy scum coasting for an easy win. He's played this way the whole game. If

we lynch HC today and if flips town

, KMD is the most obvious buddy. Not even pretending to consider situations.

Emphasis added. I’d like you to explain exactly what you are intending to say here.