Mini 922 - Mafia in Mo Town [Game Over]

[Sakako]

Wow, random voting much? I think I'll pass for now.

Also, I'm running Ubuntu with XMonad. It's the bomb.

[Sakako]

Wow. I can't win. In the last two games I played, I screwed up the RVS cause I kept it going. Now I don't want to vote, and I'm getting voted for?

Vote: Espeonage

, cause you're actually analysing stuff. :p

[Sakako]

This is my first non-newbie game, so I also don't know ANYONE. D:

[Sakako]

Well, of course, my case was kind of different because I was scum in the last two games - and got lynched pretty quickly. I think day 2 on both games. :p

[Sakako]

Espeonage, won't people now know that the pressure is on them to reveal their role? That's a bit scummy, but I've already got my RV on you :p

But seriously:

FoS: Espeonage

[Sakako]

Okay. Mass roleclaim is

definitely

a bad idea. I know that much. XD

It was just the way you were talking about how you were fishing readily. ^^;

[Sakako]

Agree with Bob here. Random wagons are only useful in particular situations, like when there's no better candidate for lynch.

i.e. beginning of day 1. (but only then.)

Also, re: my wanting to please people; it's what I do. If that's bad for Mafia, please tell me, but I enjoy good relationships with other people. xD

[Sakako]

I think floating is probably more of a scumtell than general active lurking - but that might just be me.

[Sakako]

I agree with Netopalis, as you all already know. ^^;

Can we end the RVS soon?

[Sakako]

AB: I actually hammered someone just after RVS was finished, if that counts. I got lynched for it the next day, though. ^^;

It wasn't my fault, I swear.

[Sakako]

I hate being Australian sometimes. I missed this

whole

bit of conversation.

Unfortunately, it could have happened anywhere so I still don't really have any reads, but I'm going to

vote: xRECKONERx

just cause he's being a douche :p

[Sakako]

Well, I don't really have any reads. That's probably cause I still suck at scumhunting, but my vote's staying on you until Neto provides some information anyway.

[Sakako]

Hmm. I think Neto is looking scummier and scummier. I mean, there has only been one main claim against him (and that's the whole "no claim/bad claim" thing) - but he keeps trying to defend himself, and that's what I did in my first two games as scum.

Unvote

Vote: Netopalis

[Sakako]

No, I'm not saying that, I'm saying constantly defending oneself over and over for the same point is scummy.

[Sakako]

I don't know. I guess it's frustrating to see someone doing the same things that I did before, but not know what to do about it.

[Sakako]

Sorry, I was away. >.>

@reck: It can sometimes be a town-tell, I suppose. I guess it's hard if there's only one real case that anyone's making on someone (which is the case here.)

@Neto: What I would have done is to say that I already talked about that, and then say that it didn't need to be taken further.

I really don't think I'm a much better vote than anyone at this moment in time, not even Neto. >.>

[Sakako]

Okay. That makes sense to me. But it didn't look as if Reck was paying attention to anything you said at all, making you repeat nearly the exact same thing over and over again.

In fact, if I think about it, it could have been a trap, trying to make you contradict yourself. I've fallen into one of those before.

Unvote

Vote: xRECKONERx

And no, that's not an OMGUS vote, not at all.

[Sakako]

@DRK: Here's how I think it could work:

1. Find some pithy little case on someone
2. Repeatedly word the question about that case in a different manner in an attempt to cause them to contradict themselves
3. Use that contradiction as a major scum-tell
4. Lynch a townsperson.

That's why I think it's a trap.

@Reck: I don't actually know how many votes people have got on whom (and I know, I should look after this) - but if you're counting me voting to put someone at L-4 (yes, count it, L-4 - I don't really think that's pressuring or anythng at all) then I think you have a very flimsy case.

[Sakako]

I'm not sure it's a trap. I just think it could be. Why? Because I've fallen for similar tactics (although I'm pretty sure that the person already knew I was scum and was just getting me lynched; it's a handy tool for pro-town players aswell but only if they're 100% sure that the trap-ee is scum already. I don't see that happening in this case.)

[Sakako]

Well I don't really care if I get lynched, it will just be annoying having to wait for a while.

Sorry if I can't practice scumhunting - I'm actually trying pretty hard here, you know. If you don't like it, then that's your problem, but I'm actually trying to save you here, Neto.

[Sakako]

@DRK: In my third post, the "just" is an emphasis, not a disqualifier. I'm not saying I

only just

think it's a trap. I'm saying that I think it's a trap as opposed to something else.

I don't really think that the wording of my posts are any different to what I've been saying. I have never said the exact words,

THIS IS 100%, MOST DEFINITELY A TRAP.

All I said was, "It's possibly a trap. It might not be, but it could be. I think it is."

[Sakako]

@DRK: I've been victim of this problem before. I'm fairly casual with my words, you see, and I'm of the opinion that whatever I say here is automatically my opinion, i.e. if I post "blah blah", then it should be taken to mean: "Sakako thinks that blah blah is true".

Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[Sakako]

Note: I'm going to a party now, so I'll be uncontactable for the next few hours. Don't lynch me just yet. XD

[Sakako]

@Neto: It was a joke. Thus the "XD".

Going to bed, nothing more for me to say at this point in time.

[Sakako]

Okay, so I'm in a bit of a sticky situation here. Firstly, I want to

unvote Reck

, because his cases against me are actually not bad, and they're making him look more townish as we go along.

@hito: You're a douche, you know that?

@Reck: Yes, I know, you don't like me claiming I can't scumhunt. But you're being a douche too, by making sweeping statements like "If you're going to complain, then replace out." The point is, I'm not going to learn if I don't play. If I replace out, that kind of defeats the purpose. I'm still trying to grasp the whole game here, so just chill out for a bit.

@everyone else: I know I'm a fairly good target for lynch today. I'd like to ratify that situation, but I don't really think I'll be able to. So if someone could actually tell me what I'm doing wrong rather than "omglol you can't play mafia" then that would be appreciated.

[Sakako]

sigh.

It wasn't really that at all. It was just the way you were saying it, like, "omg that's so obvious why didn't i think of that durrrrrrr"; it was frankly patronizing and almost hurtful.

[Sakako]

Well sure, go right ahead, but don't make it obvious that you're insulting me. That really detracts from the point of your point.

Regarding that, by the way, if I still had my vote on Neto, I would probably be more willing to defend my views. But I don't, cause I, too, realised that that was a stupid reason to vote for someone.

[Sakako]

Also @Neto: I don't really want to come across that way. I don't want to blend in, but I can't really help it if I'm not the best at this game, and people start wagons before I do. I don't want to blend in, but at the same token, I don't really want to stand out (not that I could really) so I'll get NKed like... N1 or something. >.>

[Sakako]

@hito: Fair enough. Thanks for taking the time to explain it to me.

NotADouche: hito

[Sakako]

Guess it's back to the queue with me. I really don't think you guys should lynch me, but it doesn't look as though I'm going to be saying anything new anytime soon, so that's the end of it.

[Sakako]

Okay. I'm not meaning to be defeatist. I should probably play a few more newbie games before trying to play with the big guys, but here's what I'm thinking.

xReck - most probably town. Either that, or very good scum. He's been hunting pretty much from the get-go, and that's good. I like that play.

Neto - more likely town than not. Just a gut feeling for now.

Kyle - not sure what to think. I'd like for him to provide a link to the game which he's using as meta for Monkey.

Monkey - quite possibly scum. I don't really have any new reasons for this, but I really don't like the way he shifted the discussion from him as scum to random x as scum.

Almaster - not quite sure here either.
Lowell - likewise.

DRK - Quite possibly town, for same scumhunting reasons as xReck.

Esp - possibly town. Making some good attempts at hunting.

Bob, Nik - possibly scum, lurking somewhat.

Hito - unsure. Possibly town though, making some good cases against me.

If I've forgotten anyone, please let me know.

[Sakako]

...(kyle) also never voted Monkey, so I'm less inclined to believe this is just him joining the biggest wagon.

Something I just thought of now: could this be because they're scumbuddies? I'm not really of the opinion that this

is

the case, but it's a bit of food for thought.

[Sakako]

Sakako could be newbie town or newbie scum, but im leaning newbie scum, mostly not only because of his early play behavior, but because he and Neto seem very reluctant to attack each other on anything, increasing the likelyhood that they are scum partners imho. I think this is poor scum play rather than newbie town play. Townies are usually more prone to disagree with each other, especially considering the level of scumminess both of them have shown.

Uhm... what? I voted Neto right at the start. Sure, it was a flimsy reason, but it was still an attack. Don't misrepresent me.

[Sakako]

Misrepresentation Team: Monkey x Kyle?

^_^;

[Sakako]

No, I'm trying to hunt, though. I'd like to hear your opinion on this, Reck. what do you think about the

possibility

?

[Sakako]

Okay, Reck, well if you think that one of them is scum, let's weigh up the arguments, and see who looks scummier, thus finding a lynch target for today?

[Sakako]

Well, no, out of Kyle and Monkey, cause you said it was much more likely for one of those to be scum than both.

[Sakako]

I want to see what some pressure does to him.

Unvote

, if I had one already.

Vote: Nikanor

[Sakako]

It's scummy to have your votes on the "safe" idle/inactive player.

Okay, but what would you say if I did this?

Unvote, Vote: MonkeyMan576

That's also a pretty "safe" wagon to be on. It just so happens that I don't like his play, either.

[Sakako]

I think the complete opposite. There are 5 votes for the forced-replace, and there are 3 on each of the other two options.

[Sakako]

Mod, I'm pretty sure I changed my vote from Nik to Monkey.

Fixed! Sorry about that. ~KittyMo

[Sakako]

So if that's the case, then Monkey's on L-1. There are a couple of questions I'd like him to answer.

1. At the moment, who do you think is the most likely scum candidate?

2. I'd like you to explain again (if you haven't already) the whole suspicion-dodging thing you did back on page 6.

and 3. Why shouldn't you be the lynch for today?

He has 4 votes, and it's 7 to lynch... ~KittyMo

[Sakako]

He has 4 votes, and it's 7 to lynch... ~KittyMo

Er. Forgot there aren't just 9 players any more. :3 I didn't think it was L-1 when I voted. XD

[Sakako]

I'll have some more to post on Day 2 - uni is coming back into session, haven't had much time to do any analysis at all.

[Sakako]

It sounds like its already been decided that ill be lynched regardless of my flip, so why claim?

Lazy-scum (I mean, nothing new here), you could at least make some sort of believable claim that would make town think a whole lot differently about you.

Someone hammer this guy, please.

[Sakako]

Well if I was scum I would at least try to make some sort of a claim rather than just say "Oh, well, I'm going to die anyway."

[Sakako]

Nik, it's true that Monkey's claim can be proven, but why wouldn't he just claim straight off when we asked him for one? It's almost like he was trying to think of something. Not to mention he OMGUSed me when I pointed out that he wasn't claiming.

I'm not moving my vote.

[Sakako]

Well, look at this. This makes sense to me now -

unvote Monkey.

I'm going to use a Pascal's Wager-type argument to show why we shouldn't lynch Monkey. Of course this can be applied to anyone, but Monkey's made a claim which can actually be checked.

I'm assuming that there are 3 Mafia members in a 12-player game.
Now, we have 9 townies alive at the moment.

The worst case scenario is if we don't lynch Monkey, and he turns out to be scum. In that case, we lynch a townie, and then we're only 3-7 by the start of Day 2, which is a slightly unfavourable position for us - a town wagon could only have 3 members on it, all the scum would quicklynch, and then we'd be 3-5 by Day 3 - of course we'd lynch the hammerer, who'd most likely be scum - and then by Day 4 we'd be 2-4; which is still not a good position to be in.

The best case scenario is if we do lynch Monkey, and he's scum. That way, we're at 2-8 by the start of Day 2, and that's a very advantageous position for us to be in; because we'd have some extra information regarding the interactions between Monkey and others.

---------

Now the other cases, we lynch Monkey, and he's town. In this case, we're at the same position as the worst case - 3-7 by Day 2.

If we don't lynch him, and he's town, then we might lynch either scum (in which case we'd have a best case - 3/11 chance) or town (in which case we'd have a worst case - 8/11 chance).

---------

So in short:

Lynch Monkey - 50/50 chance
Monkey flips town 75% chance (worst case) = 37.5%
Monkey flips scum 25% chance (best case) = 12.5%

Lynch someone else - 50/50 chance
Someone else is town 75% chance
Monkey is town 8/11 chance (good case) = 3/11 ~ 27.3%
Monkey is scum 3/11 chance (worst case) = 9/88 ~ 10.2%
Someone else is scum 25% chance
Monkey is town 8/11 chance (best case) = 1/11 ~ 9.1%
Monkey is scum 3/11 chance (best case) = 3/88 ~ 3.4%

Total good/best case - 12.5 + 27.3 + 12.5 = 52.3
Total bad/worst case - 37.5 + 10.2 = 47.7

--------------

If anyone has any problems with my mathematical logic, please tell me.

[Sakako]

Yes, read the first line of my post. I'm not entirely sure of who we should be voting for, but it isn't Monkey; you're right. I was actually starting to write that mathematics to prove my point that we should be voting for him but then I realised that statistically it would be better to put votes on other people.

[Sakako]

Netoooooooooooo.

Oooh... kaay?

Vote: Netopalis

But why? Has he only come up as a target within the last couple of pages or so? I think I completely missed that boat.

[Sakako]

Well, Kyle, if you had suggested Lowell as a good lynch target for today then I would have done exactly the same thing. I'm just trying to hurry up and get some information - there are only a few days left before deadline.

Yes, call me scummy if you like. But that's the fact - I really don't have any idea of who I should be voting for, at this moment in time.

[Sakako]

Ahem. Who I should be voting for = who is scum.

And since you're pretty much in the clear, Monkey, I'm ruling you out. Thus, I have no idea who is scum = I have no idea who I should be voting for.

[Sakako]

Well, Kyle, if you had suggested Lowell as a good lynch target for today then I would have done exactly the same thing. I'm just trying to hurry up and get some information - there are only a few days left before deadline.

Yes, call me scummy if you like. But that's the fact - I really don't have any idea of who I should be voting for, at this moment in time.

Here's a thought. Instead of just blindly following the last person to post in the thread, you should, you know, read the thread and use the posts to make an objective decision about who's scum. Just a thought.

In addition, I actually had done that, and had found Monkey to be the one whom I wanted to lynch. However that has become impossible now, so I'm voting for Neto. Besides, Nikanor hasn't seemed particularly scummy in the past to me, so I trust his vote. Plus his reasoning is quite sound.

Like I said. I'll have more to say on day 2. But that's a while away. So just chill out.

[Sakako]

Why, when asked to claim, did monkey first perform a big song and dance about how everyone was going to vote for him anyway, so what's the point?

I made this exact same case, if you'll notice. I am going to give him another chance because it's mathematically viable - but we will get information from this night, if not from this day. It's a win-win situation.

[Sakako]

The mathematical analysis by Sakako, as fun as it looks, is rather useless because it assumes 50-50 odds on Monkey being scum when the odds are definitely higher than that. Unless we plan on quantifying those odds, no mathematical analysis like that will help. Even then, it would miss important factors.

Actually it assumes 50-50 odds that we'd be lynching Monkey. I guess that's related, but if you'd care to give me a number, I can recalculate.

[Sakako]

@DRK, I see you saw that error there, however it didn't really matter as they were both good percentages anyway (i.e. sum to 12.5%.) Like I said, the only reason I'm not voting for Monkey any more is because of the claim. Think of it this way; a townie is going to die tonight whether we lynch him or not, and we can always figure out whether he's actually scum tomorrow.

Also, kyle, how come you're the only person saying that? No-one else seems to have taken much notice of that post.

[Sakako]

I only make that point because, let's face it, you haven't exactly been Sherlock Holmes here. If it's, as you say, "

way

too scummy to ignore", then why hasn't someone else picked up on that?

[Sakako]

I don't want you to tell me why other people don't think it's scummy. I want you to tell me why you think no-one else has picked it up. It's obviously a minor point.

[Sakako]

Thanks for your completed analysis, hito.

Now for mine. I, too, have been busy settling into uni, sorry I haven't been here, but here are the main points I had with yesterday's lynch/other things happening. I'm sure most of them have been said before, but perhaps I can shed some new light on the situation. The people in the parentheses after the points are the people I'd like to comment on my points.

----------

#1. Kyle's hammer. (kyle99, xRECKONERx)
It came too quickly, this much is obvious. That's the problem I've got with this hammer, not the fact that he's the one who did it. I would have done it, too, had I not been on the Neto wagon at the time, and

waiting for more information from MM.

But Kyle still hasn't made any sort of rebuttal as to why he did this. The one time he's posted he completely ignored the topic, moving the discussion to some other wagon, trying to start one on xReck (who I think is town, by the way, either that or /very/ tricky scum.)

#2. Bob's complete ignorance. (almightybob, Nikanor)
Okay, yes, so he had some points against me at the end of Day 1. He then votes me, but doesn't make any sort of points against me (after that single post), instead choosing to attack Nikanor. This seems a bit pointless to me, for instance, if Bob thinks I'm scummy, then surely he should be attacking me? I have been away for a while, and that would have been more than enough time for a scum-Bob to say "omg Saka's dodging the question". But oh wait. He can't, because he already advocated policy lynching as bad form in iso 13. Does that mean he's town, and he's actually following through with his logic? Or is he frustrated scum trying to get a lynch off anyone who's active enough? I can't tell at this point.

---------

I'm sure I'm missing a couple of things here, but I'm going to

vote: kyle99

because I can't actually tell whether bob is acting scummy or not. More to come later, it's good to be back.

[Sakako]

Lowell, and Kyle. You've both completely ignored what I'm worried about.

...It came too quickly, this much is obvious. That's the problem I've got with this hammer, not the fact that he's the one who did it...

OHmygod.

Read, people. If I didn't have my vote on Kyle already, I'd definitely be voting him now.

[Sakako]

Oh, sorry, Bob. Thought I had gone over that. ^^;

1. Nikanor didn't do the

exact

same thing. He actually answered the question he was asked in the post you linked, so that's hardly cause for alarm.

2. I'm not sure why I used that word at the time, now. I'm sure I had a reason, but it's not particularly coming out to me. Mustn'tve been anything too harsh - but that wasn't the point I was making, anyway.

3. It's not a bad thing to be pursuing multiple routes. But making an analogy here, what I was trying to point out was, take the parable of the man on the road. All the signs he notes down are pointing towards Carthage, away from Alexandria, but even when he reaches the city, he changes his mind and wants to go to Alexandria instead. It's just a tad unnerving.

[Sakako]

@bob:

Firstly, kyle's absence is very suspicious.

1. I didn't really think about it terribly much before, but it was basically because he at least acknowledged his vote. That's why it didn't raise the point.

3. Ah, okay. Fair enough. Town points for you.

And thanks. I'm a classical kind of guy. ^_^

[Sakako]

I know I'm town, I think

Sak

is town. It just so happened that neither of us were on the Monkey wagon.

It's Saka, not Sak.

[Sakako]

>_> <_< Sorry Sakako! The fact that people keep calling you Saka makes your name seem girlier. I really should remember better, considering how many times I've been miscalled a guy in total... It's just been a long day.

+ thanks, Espeonage. =] ~KittyMo

Haha, that's perfectly fine. It's kind of part of the reason why I do it anyway. ^^;

But yes, picking up my prod - have been rather busy with Humans vs Zombies at uni; will probably get to posting in the next couple of days after I reread the thread, plus the - what is it, five? seven? I dunno how many pages.

Sorry. orz

[Sakako]

I'm still rereading too, but for now, I like Nik's idea.

Vote: Netopalis

He's more on my radar, for various reasons.