Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[Zorblag]

[sarcasm]Yeah, that's not overselling me at all there.[/sarcasm]

Good day everyone. There's not much to look at so far so I'm essentially caught up. Given the special game features it seems to me as though it should be worth knowing what experiences everyone has with other players that started the game. Could everyone please give a list the other players in the game that you've played with or modded in the past using experience with nadroj15 rather than myself?

I recognize a good portion of the the people here and I'm looking forward to the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I suppose that I should probably answer my own question (though the reasons that I'm asking can't actually apply to me as a replacement after the game has started) just so that people know who I have expectations of coming in.

I have played with Archon, afatchic (very briefly), MiteyMouse, Nuwen and PapaZito in the past. I have modded a game for AshMC1984.

Archon, I already like your play better in this game than I did in NG 751. It's good to see that you're picking things up. Do you stand by this statement?

I haven't played in a few months...?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Disappointed that Zorblag doesn't write in third person in games.

Troll be happier talking like this but Troll knows that some no care for it much. As a rule Troll drops the character when Troll be replacing into games but Troll do be most happy to waive that if those in this game would like Troll to.

Anyways, I have modded Archon. And i guess played with Zorblag if you say so. Sorry, but i don't exactly remember that game. Must have been real brief, as you said.

You replaced into Immunity Mafia for a very short time. I think you posted twice in the game.

Yeah, I stand by that statement. It's the truth. I kinda had a Mafia-meltdown, as I fell behind in too many games, and then asked for replacements for all of them and left, occasionally checking back to see if it was my turn to mod.

Remind me, as I have a bad memory; didn't we have some sort of fight/accusation galore against each other?

I asked if you stood by it as looking at what your post history it seems that it was a month ago that you last played rather than a few months (your last game posts were in the beginning of June) but so be it. Perception of time can be off fairly easily.

I don't think that we particularly clashed in the game we played together. I replaced in fairly late and although I accused you of not providing anything useful you didn't get drawn into that. Others had done the same throughout the game and your focus mostly stayed on those that had done it previously.

Nuwen, you're the only one who hasn't said who they've got experience playing with in the past. I realize that I could look at everyone else's responses and get the information. I could also take a look through all the games everyone has played. I'd still like to have you comment on your own if you don't mind overly.

As for Papa Zito's vote for Nuwen, I don't know what his reasons were but I could pretty easily see myself casting an initial vote on Nuwen for fairly particular (if pretty weak) reasons. It wouldn't be because I was particularly sure she was scum yet but rather because I see a few very minor things that have happened that make her more likely to be scum than what I've seen from others and it would be a place to start. For now I'm interested to see what Papa Zito had in mind and to see if it matches at all. I'd also like to see who Nuwen has played with or modded in the past.

To avoid looking like I'm just trying to follow Papa Zito's lead on Nuwen here's an abbreviation of the first sentence of the reason that I would give if I were voting for Nuwen right now:

T K T N H T T T T L A A P G A S I H V P A T S O G D O H B I O G W H M # W H R A S W K.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Nuwen, I'm sorry to hear that you're going through that. Hopefully you'll get things sorted shortly.

OK, now we've seen Papa Zito's reasons for voting Nuwen. Here's what I would have said if I were voting for Nuwen prior to this (the first sentence is what my abbreviation went with):

Troll knows that Nuwen has taken the time to look at Archon’s previous games as she identifies his voting patterns at the start of games despite only having been in one game with him (Mini 734 where he replaced after she was killed.) In this particular game the mafia would have had a strong reason to take a look at other games people have played in when deciding who to exclude from being the chosen. Further, Archon’s play in Troll’s experience be that of scum bait and him be a likely candidate not to be exluded as the chosen should him be town. Votes for him at the start of the game will inherently be suspicious to Troll.

I used Troll-speak to make it slightly harder to guess what it was I would have been saying but there wasn't that much danger of it in any case I suspect.

Having said that, I'm not going to vote for Nuwen, that would just have been my reasons and they wouldn't have impressed me much.

I've been thinking about what Zorblag said and the connections that we all have had to each other before this game. It's very likely that one of us that have played a lot with others in this game are probably not the choosen one. That might narrow it down a bit. As, we want to keep that person alive....having them alive is a big asset to us.

I don't think that we should assume that those people have played with are unlikely to be the chosen one. I think that the scum would probably have excluded people who are harder to lynch and that if we look at anything we should be trying to decide who that would be. Who people have played with gives us at least a place to start for guessing how people might have evaluated each other's play but we need to look at more than just that. I was also seeing how closely the lists people reported would match what I came up with when I looked through everyone's games on my own. Here's what people reported ignoring responses of Zorblag and Hohum:

afatchic: TDC, Archon
Archon: afatchic
AshMC1984: Archon, BloodCovenent
BloodCovenent: Papa Zito, AshMC1984, Archon
MiteyMouse: Papa Zito
Nuwen: No response
Papa Zito: nadroj15, BloodCovenent, MiteyMouse
TDC: afatchic

This is what I got by looking through the games:

afatchic: Archon, TDC, Nuwen
Archon: BloodCovenent, AshMC1984, Nuwen, afatchic
AshMC1984: Archon, BloodCovenent
BloodCovenent: Archon, AshMC1984, Papa Zito, Nuwen
MiteyMouse: Papa Zito
Nadroj15: Papa Zito
Nuwen: Archon, BloodCovenent, TDC, afatchic
Papa Zito: BloodCovenent, MiteyMouse, Nadroj15
TDC: afatchic, Nuwen

One reason that I wanted Nuwen to chime in before I did this is that no one claims to have been in a game with her which is odd as apparently I found 4 people she's played with or had modding interactions with by one party or the other.

I'll take another look at the differences between the self reports and what I found and see if I'm counting anything extra but before I do that I'll let anyone that would like to comment on the two lists.

@BloodCovenent: Why would you cast a vote for MiteyMouse saying that you'll see what her response is directly after she says that she'll be V/LA for the next 5 days?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Actually, another question for everyone in the game: If you had to choose any 4 of the following players to exclude as the chosen who would you pick and why?

Archon
AshMC1984
BloodCovenent
afatchic
MiteyMouse
nadroj15
Nuwen
Papa Zito
TDC

Those were most likely the players that the mafia chose between when making their decision. Two of them are mafia and the lists that people give won't take that into account but I'm interested in hearing who people think they would want to make sure wasn't the chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

afatchic, when you do post later tonight please be sure to give a sentence or two on each of those 4 as to why you would exclude them as the chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, take the time you need but I'd like everyone to answer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I made a post earlier that was deleted but which TDC was talking about when he said:

The "Makes sense, I guess" was directed at the Troll.

I think that he was agreeing with my assumption that those excluded from being the chosen were determined by the scum after Archon and afatchic had replaced in:

After Archon and afatchic had confirmed (at least to the mod) there was a 24 hour wait time before the game started. I'm assuming that this was to give the mafia time once they saw the player list to make their plans though it is only an assumption on my part.

I'd love to have the mod answer TDC's question from Post 112 to help determine who we should be looking at here as it's a very good question to ask.

afatchic, did you have anything else you were planning on talking about when you said that you were planning on posting more yesterday evening or was it just the reasons that you gave?

Thank you Papa Zito and TDC for your answers. BloodCovenent, take your time as I'd like to hear your informed answer rather than something rushed. I still want to hear from everyone else.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

BloodCovenent, that method is fine but I do still want to see what you'd come up with as a list of four players after taking experience into account.

Mod: If Archon and Nuwen haven't been prodded could you prod them? I know that MiteyMouse and AshMC1984 are V/LA so I won't ask for them to be prodded yet.

Done

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Welcome to the game Herodotus and Raivann. As you're replacing in after the game started we know that even if you're scum you didn't take part in the process of deciding which four players to exclude from being the chosen but just so that we've got more to work with I'd love to hear your thoughts about which four players from the following list you would have picked were you scum not to be the chosen and very briefly the reasons why:

Archon
AshMC1984
BloodCovenent
afatchic
MiteyMouse
nadroj15
Nuwen
Papa Zito
TDC

To everyone, Mini 780 - Chosen has just ended. The setup for that game is almost identical to the one that we're using here. If people have time skimming through and seeing how it effected the game would be something that I recommend.

I'm approaching this game with a similar attitude to how Albert B. Rampage approached that one. So long as we never lynch the chosen, the town can't lose this game. It'll be good to lynch scum if we can but town wins even if it mislynches every single time so long as the chosen is still around.

In that game they didn't spend much effort in the first couple days figuring out who the chosen was likely to be; I think that they should have and I'm trying to do that now. If others think that this is a poor plan I'm happy to listen to arguments that I'm being an idiot here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I don't expect to figure out who the chosen is right away. Mostly likely we won't be sure until they get mislynched or the game ends. What we can do today is rule out likely suspects and those we do rule out will be the better lynches. Clearly we should be scum hunting at the same time and looking for scum everywhere, but especially the first few days of the game we should be lynching scummy players who also have a fairly low chance of being the chosen. As the game goes on I suspect the WIFOM will build up and it will get harder to take advantage of this principle.

When we do hit scum we'll have their list of people they would have excluded as the chosen as well as their actions to look at when deciding both who their partner is likely to be and who the chosen is likely to be. I don't expect the list that the scum will end up giving to be the least bit honest but if they have to give reasons now we're tying them down to particular viewpoints that we can test against how they react to the rest of the game as it happens.

For the no lynch idea, I view that more as a last resort that we can use if we get down to a place where we're not sure about who is likely to be the chosen and we don't have a good feel for who is scum. Town can always force a draw in this game by not voting so long as the chosen is alive. I often play games not to lose rather than to win so I did think about simply recommending that the town always vote no lynch. The eventual reason that I didn't was that there is a general site rule that we're supposed to play to win. I'm taking that to mean that as long as acting gives us a reasonable chance of winning rather than losing we should do that instead of taking the draw through inaction.

If I do get killed before end game I suppose I should let everyone know that I have no trouble with town voting no lynch and going for the draw if they aren't pretty sure they can get the win. I just think that right now we aren't at the stage where we have to play defensively as we do have the advantage going into the game so long as we can determine a set of people who almost certainly aren't the chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

For the record, I'm writing Archon's play off as a null tell as, like I said, I consider him to be scum bait when he's town. That means that I'm automatically excusing any omissions he made about people he played with because I don't think that he was aware enough to give an accurate list. I do think that the no lynch vote by Herodotus is a bit scummy as even though the lynching dynamic is not the same as in a typical game I think we can do better, but I also think that Archon was particularly likely not to be excluded from being the chosen so I'll have no interest in voting for Herodotus on day one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Herodotus, do you have any experience with Papa Zito? Same question in reverse to Papa Zito.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Herodotus, would you find voting no lynch on day one of games without some special dynamic scummy in general? If you need a more specific one how about a mountainous nine player game with two scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So here I also see no lynch as bad for the town in that it doesn't make the town more likely to win than a well debated lynch would. I don't have any problem with people not voting yet; I'm holding off till I hear the answers to my questions. What I don't like is that you've voted no lynch there which is probably a worse play for the town than simply withholding your vote given my current take on the setup.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, and I guess I should add that I find Herodotus to be competent based on previous experience. If it weren't for that I'd just call the no lynch vote anti-town. When a competent player makes it I find it scummy. In this game it's less clear that no lynch is the wrong play but I still think that it is and that given what I've said about strategy thus far today competent players shouldn't be voting no lynch. If anyone gives an argument to the contrary for any of the points there I might change that opinion.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If town never lynches then they can't lose. If town never lynches then they can't win. Assuming that town wants to win rather than simply draw it's in their interest to lynch scum. At the start of the game the information provided from mislynches is much more valuable than just letting scum kill whoever they want other than the chosen to get to the same stage. If we can rule out people as likely chosen ones it's in our best interest to lynch at the early stage of the game so that we've got a better chance of winning by lynching at the later stages of the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I do think that the lists have value even though Nuwen was in the other game. Unless Nuwen was scum in this game her being in the other game doesn't change anything at all. Even if Nuwen was scum (and Raivann is now) the four players that Raivann lists will give us information later on to look at when determining if he was trying to manipulate us.

Herodotus, again, if we never lynch then the mafia can eliminate townies until they're down to the point where there's one townie and the chosen one left in addition to themselves. If they then don't choose to night kill any more we're at a draw. Unless the town chooses to kill at some point the mafia never have to lose. I think that it's much better for the town to get information from the lynches to use in a possible end game situation provided that we can be fairly certain that we aren't lynching the chosen than it is to simply let the mafia kill whoever they find most useful to kill to get us there.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If we lynch someone we're pretty sure is not the Chosen (based on being hard to lynch) and that person ends up actually being the Chosen, I think it would point into Nuwen's direction.
Of course anyone could've read along with that game (or perhaps come to that conclusion without doing so), but she was actually there.
At least, it would rather speak against a scum team consisting of two relative newbies.

If we're going to try to win we have to lynch someone at some point. There is a danger that we'll get it wrong and lynch the chosen but that's why I'm saying we should both spend today trying to figure out who is least likely to be the chosen and lynch who among them is the most scummy. In 780 I know that Nuwen was town and I recall that on day one of the game she advocated playing the game as though it were mountainous. I was hoping that she would respond to my questions as that would have given me more information to work with about her reactions to the setup before and after having been in it a while.

I think that the best play for the mafia would have been to exclude those that were least likely to be lynched given how they play in other games; I have to start somewhere and I know that were I making the decision that would be my primary deciding factor. There is WIFOM to be taken into account but if the mafia were pretty sure they could get someone lynched I think that would overwhelm anything else they might use when making their decision especially as the setup is as new as it is.

If we do end up lynching the chosen then we'll have to make a careful evaluation of the entire state of the game. It could be that Raivann, as Nuwen's replacement, will be the most suspect at that time but I think it will depend a fair amount on what has gone down since then.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

BloodCovenent, how about afatchic instead of ClockworkRuse if that's who the mafia had to look at?

Also, your endgame scenario there isn't quite right. If we've still got the chosen in the last four players then the mafia have to lynch them and cannot lynch the other townie or we lose. Knowing how the dynamics for this game works is going to be vital for everyone that ends up in endgame so I want to make sure everyone is clear on what could happen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If we've still got the chosen in the last four players then the mafia have to lynch them and cannot lynch the other townie or we lose.

ORLY

No, not really, I said that wrong. The mafia have to lynch the townie who isn't the chosen. If they don't then we win. I could also have been intending to write they lose but I don't remember. It's a slip and I apologize for the confusion. Make of it what you will.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I Understood what you meant. The scum must lynch the chosen one in order to win, correct? And that might be difficult. So what happens if it comes down to two scum and 1 townie after that day lynch?

13. The Chosen One can't be Nightkilled or Endgamed; it can only be lynched while there are still townies alive.

If it's just the chosen and the mafia then the chosen can't be lynched and the town wins is my interpretation. If it was one non-chosen townie and two mafia then the mafia would win.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Troll:
No, you were right the first time. The mafia need to lynch the Chosen.

Did I ever say anything other than that? If so I didn't mean to.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Where did you hear about TDC's play?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Well crap, my correction of my correction still wasn't right. Again, sorry for the confusion. I need to stop drinking or start being more careful with my posts.

Herodotus, why are Papa Zito and TDC apparently confirmed townie for you?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Raivann, I'd like to hear what your list of the four most level headed influential players out of the list I gave is in that case.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Herodotus, do you think that AshMC1984 is less likely to be the chosen one than Nuwen would have been? The answer to this should be obvious but I'll ask anyhow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

That's essentially what I expected you to say.

Right now I'm pretty sure that Herodotus is town based on what he said to the mod in post 164. That's great as he's replacing Archon who I think was likely to be a potential chosen. I strongly recommend against lynching Herodotus at any point.

I do think that AshMC1984 is potentially the chosen one so I'm not at all interested in lynching him today. I think that Nuwen was unlikely to be excluded from being the chosen one as she is a strong player in general and isn't all that likely to be lynched as town.

I gave some weak reasons that I would have considered for voting for Nuwen earlier. Given that any lynch of a non-chosen one is a reasonable move in this game, that someone I think is town finds Raivann suspicious, and that I found Nuwen's play slightly scummy earlier I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Raivann

I hadn't said it before, but my list of players to exclude from being the chosen one (and hence those that I think are least likely to have that role now) would be MiteyMouse, Nuwen, Papa Zito and TDC. Nuwen, TDC and Papa Zito all impress me with the towniness of their play in general and I think that MiteyMouse often comes across as fairly townish no matter what her role is. My fifth choice would be BloodCovenent as he's not been lynched in any games that I can find as a pro-town player in the early stages of a game. I think that the scum would have gone for lynchability over anything else when making their choices. afatchic is more lynchable in what I've seen than any of the five players that I listed. Archon was scum bait. AshMC1984 plays reasonably in the games that I've seen but he does get lynched. nadroj15 had no record to speak of so he would rank behind the other five in my list.

Of MiteyMouse, Papa Zito, Raivann and TDC Raivann currently seems like the best lynch to me.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Zorblag- Your plan of lynching the non-chosens seems good, except for the fact that we will most likely be losing our most helpful players. Most of the players you named, are the ones with more experience and likely to be more helpful in the long run. I think it will have its pro's and con's. I do believe that if we stick to lynching to non-chosen candidates, we can't lose, which is a good thing. However, it will leave a very inexperienced group left to win it for us. I don't know, i am still having mixed feeling about what strategies we should take when playing this game.

Even if that were still true it wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Experience certainly doesn't always lead to wins and in this case there is a much stronger reason than normal to keep the less experienced players who were here for the start of the game around. In any case, the replacements that we've had have already changed the dynamic some. With the setup that we're using I think that replacements hurt the scum much more than they normally do.

The prime example I can site here would be Archon being replaced by Herodotus. Archon might have been scum but I also think that he wouldn't have been a good candidate at all to keep around because the scum hoped that he would be replaced. For one thing they'd have had no way to know that it would be a more experienced player subbing in and if they could get him lynched the first day they wouldn't have had to worry about it at all.

@Zorblag - I would randomly generate in much the same way roles are assigned. This would prevent us from being buried in WIFOM.

Unvote; Vote: Herodotus

The last game I played with Archon, he was replaced early and flipped scum when his replacement died. I don't think he likes playing scum.

The scum would have every reason to want to bury is in WIFOM. Further, I'm pretty sure that most scum would think that they could do better than simply a random selection. Even if they didn't rule out all four choices to make tracking it back to them harder they know they'll get at least one night kill. If they could be at all sure they wouldn't want to put up with even one town member for too long they would be better off making sure that they'd be able to lynch them if they needed to; exluding someone as the chosen does that.

Other's have commented on how your argument for Archon being scum isn't compelling. Not only do I agree but I've tried to give reasons not to lynch Archon or his replacement. Did you think that I was completely wrong or did you not notice what I said?

I could give you a list but it is pretty much random because I dont know...

Zorblag
afatchick
Nuwen
Papa Zito

The idea is good as long as scum excluded the players they thought were the best. They could have done the exact opposite, no?

First off, I wasn't part of the game when the choice was made. Even if you're just going to make the choices at more or less random you should make them from players that might have been excluded.

As for the scum being worried that we would try to outguess their choices and pick unexpected exclusions for the chosen one I don't think we have to worry too much about that. The scum would know that there's still going to be a fair amount of chance invovled at the end of the process anyhow. Like I said to to AshMC1984, they know that everyone they pick will be someone they can nightkill if needed. That should be much more useful to scum than trying to throw the town off the track by making suboptimal choices when they can't even be sure that the town would even follow up on this sort of questioning.

As for the whole quicktopic and whether we've got one, I'm not going to make any assumptions one way or the other. I've played plenty of games here that had them and plenty that haven't. I suppose I'll go look to see what hohum has done before as a mod but it shouldn't matter too much. I think that it's pretty clear from the way the scum PM is worded in Post 1 that any replacement scum will at least know who the chosen one is; everything else they can work around without too much trouble including reasons they might have excluded players from getting picked.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, and it looks like hohum did set up Quicktopics for pairs in Open 142. Based on that (well, and rule 11) I would expect that the scum have a Quicktopic that replacements can look at.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I meant we as a game there.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Welcome to the game Special Ed. Out of curiosity, is it mostly MiteyMouse's code idea (which I'll talk about next) and the impression that I'm smart that are your reasons for suspecting me? Does it matter that I'm pretty sure that the only player now in the game who has played with me when I was scum is MiteyMouse?

Herodotus, do you have any experience with Papa Zito? Same question in reverse to Papa Zito.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Zorblag...should this worry me? Let me explain to everyone else here what I mean. In Newbie 749, the Troll was replaced in and he was Scum with Albert B Rampage. He asked almost the same question to Albert who, was his Scum partner. He explained it in his post game analysis as a way to get a message to Albert. I'm not ready to vote for you yet Zorblag but, it is noted!

Not really. In that game I needed to get information from Albert B. Ramage about whether he wanted me to bus him on day two of a game in which he looked somewhat suspicious so I used that method of getting information from him as it was a simple way for him to lie which would be a reason to go through with the bus or tell the truth which would be a reason to hold back. Unless you're worried that I'm scum trying to decide whether or not I need to bus a Herodotus or Papa Zito partner on day one I don't think it should be that troubling. I do ask questions that I can verify in most of my games regardless of alignment.

I meant we as a game there.

Second slip of that kind. Does this happen often to you?

Well, that one wasn't really a slip as I'm happy enough with how I said it; we probably have a quicktopic for this game that the scum are able to look at, replacements or otherwise.

The first one was a slip. I do makes slips in my typing from time to time. Most of the time people don't notice them (or at least don't bring them up) but I've been know to mix up the days I'm talking about, mix up cop and doc, mix up paranoid and naive and so forth. When I'm typing quickly it happens more often.

As for the worry that I'm taking control of the game I suppose I should take it as a compliment but really all that I'm trying to do right now is make sure that we're all fully aware of the implications of the setup. Others hadn't seemed inclined to do so before I got here so I'm going about it in a very blatant way.

We've had answers from most about who they would have exluded and why:

afatchic

:

TDC

,

MiteyMouse

,

nadroj15

,

Papa Zito

. (TDC to avoid them being the chosen, the others could have been chosen at random)

AshMC1984

: Would randomly generate to avoid WIFOM

BloodCovenent

:

ClockworkRuse

,

MiteyMouse

,

Nuwen

,

Papa Zito

(Papa Zito based on play, Nuwen based on amount of experience and the others also on experience to a lesser degree?)

Herodotus

:

afatchic

,

MiteyMouse

,

Nuwen

,

TDC

(based on impressions of experience and skill)

MiteyMouse

:

Papa Zito

,

afatchic

,

BloodCovenent

,

TDC

(Papa Zito for skill, afatchic for recognition, the others at random)

Papa Zito

:

afatchic

,

Nuwen

,

TDC

,

MiteyMouse

(Nuwen and TDC for being veteran players, afatchic for being active and drawing at least one night kill, MiteyMouse as others see her as town in general)

Raivann

:

Zorblag

,

afatchic

,

Nuwen

,

Papa Zito

(random as he doesn't know the players in the game)

TDC

:

Papa Zito

,

BloodCovenent

,

TDC

and one of

Nuwen

or

nadroj15

(

MiteyMouse

would be the alternate choice if that list contains two scum; Papa Zito, BloodCovenent and TDC were chosen based on lack of getting lynched as town. nadroj15 as a wildcard because of a very limited sample of games)

Zorblag

:

MiteyMouse

,

Nuwen

,

Papa Zito

and

TDC

(overall townie feel for their typical play;

BloodCovenent

would be the next choice based on his record of being lynched as town)

If I've got those wrong for anyone please do correct me.

It's noteworthy that although some said they were picking randomly their lists were still usually similar to those that were chosen for a reason. Of the lists and reasons given I'm most suspicious of AshMC1984 (as I said, scum would have no reason to want to eliminate WIFOM) and Raivann for giving a "random" list that looks so similar to the other lists people have given previously. That's a bit too neat given the other suspicions that people are voicing at this point but it absolutely helps the town now to try to participate in this process now to force the scum to try harder with their justifications so that we can look at them for flaws later if they flip.

Of the rest I think that afatchic gets some credit for giving his list first but I'd like to have seen more reasons from both him and MiteyMouse.

Here are the number of exclusions by game spot (this counts the choices of ClockworkRuse and Zorblag though I don't think that ClockworkRuse would have been one of the choices and I know that I wasn't as I joined the game after it had started):

Herodotus: 0
Special Ed: 0
BloodCovenent: 3
Zorblag: 3
afatchic: 5
MiteyMouse: 6
Raivann: 6
Papa Zito: 6
TDC: 6

I'm counting everyone that made the top four or tied for a spot or was given as an alternate. I didn't expect afatchic to show up as often and, frankly, I expected nadroj15 to show up less as someone with only one full game played on site. Other than that it's not too surprising.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Raivann, I continue to think that based on game dynamics alone that Herodotus is one of the worst lynches we could make, especially on the first day. Interestingly enough (given the connections people are seeing) Special Ed would be another lynch there's no way I could get behind today just because I think there's too great a chance for him to be the chosen.

@MM:
Pointing out the part about Troll's question for me and PZ was good. Is there anyone else from that game in this game, or just Zorblag and yourself? Could someone link to it?

@Troll:
Why did you ask that question?

I asked it here because I was establishing who had connections with other players in the game at the time and something struck me as interesting about how Herodotus and Papa Zito were interacting. The game that MiteyMouse is talking about was NG 749 (and the place where I explained what it is I had done was Post 1007 in the second paragraph.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

We should be doing a combination of hunting for scum and trying to avoid lynching the chosen. The information helps because it gives us a more limited list of what I think are reasonable lynches than we would otherwise have. Even taking into account the scum potentially lying to throw off the lists (which I think they would do fairly selectively rather than for the whole list) there are solid enough trends there that the scum simply couldn't have forced the sort of pattern we ended up with. For today I think that I'm only interested in lynching one of MiteyMouse, Papa Zito, Raivann and TDC. Of those the one I think is scummiest thus far is Raivann so that's where my vote is.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

As I think on it, a great deal of my suspicion was OMGUS. To be honest, I read the game before getting my role, I was expecting to find myself being a Scum. I fully expected Ash to have seen the pressure mounting and deciding to opt out instead of staying and fighting.

That's interesting. I don't recall particularly pushing for a Nuwen/AshMC1984 scum pair before you'd made your first post (I don't think that I have now though I've said more about it since). The reasons that I gave for voting Raivann or Nuwen (whoever was playing it at the time) involved Nuwen's vote for Archon when she should know better given the setup. I'm pretty sure that OMGUS as a reason to want to vote me in particular isn't that convincing to me.

It seems quite plausible that you may have been trying to convey a message to a Scum buddy in this manner as well. Either who you'd like to see lynched or who you might think is the Chosen One. It does strike me as you sending a message. Or else why ask one specific person about one other specific person?

As I said earlier, I'm pretty sure based on the role PMs we can see in post 1 the mafia already knows who the chosen is. Beyond that, if I'm trying to send a coded message with this question then I've got to be doing it either using a system that the scum came up with before I joined the game (unless there's day talk allowed in which case sending messages in game is ludicrous) or it has to be simple enough in the available context to get an unambiguous point across like the situation MiteyMouse was referring to.

As for asking particular players that question, as I said, I was trying to establish connections and Herodotus had just replaced in after I had gone through the process. That and the play right at the time made the question worth asking in particular.

Also, your list making does seem to detract from Scum hunting. It's really been a large portion of the focus of this game. Now, maybe there are interesting comments in how people chose to talk about this or avoid it, but I really don't think it should guide our scum hunting. There's a 22% chance of anyone being Scum no matter where on the list they fall. I'd hate to exclude or include people simply because of a list created by a group that includes our Scum.

If we never lynch the chosen one we can never lose. I'm happy putting as much of the effort into determining who that is as I have given that others don't seem to be doing it. I am still looking at what people are doing and trying to find scum but I'm not going to let a major game mechanic go unexploited because we didn't pay enough attention to it.

Actually, the lists are a bit helpful strictly in terms of scum hunting as well. Taking a look at Raivann's list, she gives me as one of her responses. I was not on the list that I asked her to choose between as I wouldn't have been one of those the scum was choosing between (I joined after the game started.) As MiteyMouse said, there's a reason to think that the scum would put the chosen on their list. As I said the mafia should have knowledge of who the chosen is based on their PM. That Zorblag showed up on Raivann's list increases her chance of being scum slightly (based on the fact that if I am the chosen and she knows it she would want to list me.)

Further, and probably more than that, if Raivann flips scum my chance of being the chosen goes up. Of course that's relying a bit on what I think is likely a bit of a dearth of experience for Raivann.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, actually, in an attempt to put 2 and 2 and 3 together to make sure I get 7, Special Ed, how did you learn about the opening in this game? Who in the game do you have previous experience with? I have reason to think that you must be familiar with hohum from another context (the other place(s) you play mafia springs to mind) and I wonder if you don't know MiteyMouse from somewhere as well. It doesn't help me decide if you're scum but it helps me get my bearings with you.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, that connection between MiteyMouse and Special Ed does make things clearer, thank you.

@afatchic, I hope that I didn't come across as dismissive of your play when I said that I didn't expect you to show up on that many people's exclusion lists. I can be an ass without realizing that I'm doing it. I simply didn't think that many people would find you a poor candidate for a lynchee given what I saw when I looked at your games. You don't strike me as overly hard to lynch which is what I think that the scum would have been trying to avoid.

As for how much I expect the scum to lie about their lists, I can't be sure about it but I suspect that they would have motivation to give lists that were mostly accurate. Those that were excluded would have been excluded because the scum wouldn't want to deal with being forced to lynch them. Those that most people say would be on their exclusion lists should be the people the town should be more inclined to consider lynching if we're paying attention to the game dynamics. Other than possibly including the chosen on their list the scum don't have any motivation to lie about the bulk of who they listed.

It looks like Special Ed and TDC are the only ones who aren't voting at this time according to the last vote count. TDC just unvoted; I wonder who his top suspect is at the moment and why he's not voting. Special Ed just joined the game; I'd like to see a reasoned vote when he feels he's had the chance to get caught up. The votes that people cast at this stage in the game are valuable down the line for analysis so I like to see where people are willing to commit.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

With the new rule that lynches are mandatory I'm not quite sure how a non-majority at deadline (which is up to the mod's discretion) would be dealt with. I expect that if we do get a deadline imposed rules will be given. As for your vote being meaningless if it's not for Raivann, I disagree. If you vote for someone other than him it will be something we can look at in future days. Further, if you make any sort of case you might sway other voters beyond yourself.

My history here can be found by looking at my wiki entry (there's a button linking to it at the bottom of this post.) I've played in 11 completed games and two abandoned games with this and one other that are still ongoing. I've played about 9 games elsewhere online and a fair number live. Here day one varies a fair amount. A good portion of my experience here actually involves replacing into games past day one. Given that, I'd say that day one often results in scum-bait getting lynched rather than scum. I'm not sure what you're looking for in particular but I'd be happy to answer more particular questions if you've got them.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

We've got a deadline now. It's a week away so there's plenty of time left. I think it should be clear to everyone that it's better for us to lynch someone before we reach it but just in case, here's the reason. If we can be pretty sure we won't hit the chosen today then any lynch we choose is better than a random lynch which we know won't hit scum but might be the chosen one. If things go well then we'll hit scum but even if we're wrong we're in better shape with the information from the votes than we would be otherwise.

I don't want a quick lynch of Raivann now; if anyone is thinking of hammering please give some warning as I've got a thought about the game mechanics that I want to share as close to the end of the day as possible (so that the scum have less time to use it) that is probably obvious but which I want to be sure everyone hears going into the rest of the game.

BloodCovenent, I think I could guess why your vote is for MiteyMouse right now based on what you've said but I wonder if you could give a condensed version of your current reasons. She's probably my second choice after Raivann right now though for me that's not because I think she's particularly scummy so far this game (her play meets my expectations of play from her as either town or scum) but more because I think that she's a safe (i.e. almost certainly non-chosen) lynch and I don't have any reason to think that she's town just now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, I've got some reason to think that you're about now and looking at things. You've said that you're happy with your Papa Zito vote for now. Does that take into account his chances of being the chosen or is it just based on the cuddling that you think he's been doing with Herodotus? Is it something else altogether? Do my answers to your questions about how to use the information about who people would have excluded as the chosen seem reasonable to you?

TDC, I like the attention to detail that you're showing with the game rules. I'm a bit nervous that you might be taking what I'm coming up with about who might be the chosen too readily without making sure that it makes sense (I'm doing my best with it but I could be wrong.) How much is the concern that scum would try to game the lists I'm composing enter into your assessments? Right now who would you say on your own are the least likely to be the chosen (apparently Raivann makes that list based on your vote.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

From context I assume that BigBear is BloodCovenent? Like I said earlier I think that MiteyMouse is playing the sort of game that I'd expect her to as either town or scum based on previous experience with her. I agree that she hasn't done much to help us figure out what's happening but I do appreciate her comments on me even though they're off base. My hope is that she'll take a look at others with the same sort of attention to little details. For now I'm keeping her as neutral in terms of my read.

afatchic, I look forward to your thoughts this weekend then. School (or RL in general) clearly comes before the game. I'm interested in hearing why you're voting for BloodCovenent now given that the read that you gave on him in your PBPA was neutral. Is he scummy enough for you to be sure that he isn't the chosen at this time?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

TDC, in that case, what are your thoughts about MiteyMouse as potential scum or the chosen at this point?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Raivann, you haven't given us much to work with so far. What do you think of the wagon on you right now? Do you think that you're likely to be the chosen? If you're town who do you think is scum other than apparently Herodotus?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Saying things like a random lynch "won't hit scum but might hit the Chosen one" is a scare tactic. And it's also factually incorrect: a random lynch is twice as likely to hit scum as it is to hit the Chosen.

No, I'm not using scare tactics, just my ability to read. The random lynch I'm talking about would be the random kill resulting from our not lynching. By the rules the moderator posted:

Been lots of discussion about deadlines. To clear a few things up if I do decide to set a deadline and that deadline comes and goes I will lynch one of the living townies at random. The random pool of townies will include the chosen one.

If we don't lynch then a townie will die at random and it might be the chosen. Unless I read that wrong there's no chance that scum would get killed in that situation.

Lynching the chosen takes away guaranteed town win if we ever do it. It's strongly in our interest to make sure that we don't lynch the chosen the first day. I think that is more important than trying to make sure that we lynch scum on day one as finding scum is inherently harder at this point than avoiding lynching the chosen. If you disagree I'm happy to discuss it with you. If the chosen gets lynched we're down to a mountainous game and the limited sample of mountainous games this size or smaller here on MS don't indicate that this favors town at all. With the chosen still in the game we've got a serious advantage. I aim to keep that if it's at all possible.

Ignoring the Chosen issue entirely, can you please give a list of who you feel are most scummy at the moment? TIA.

Sorry, I can't do that. My scum reads right now in this game all involve the chosen one as it's an integral part of the game. I'm not willing to ignore a major part of the game when deciding who is likely to be scum.

If you mean what scum tells I've gotten including the possibility of the chosen my list would be Riavann (Nuwen), AshMC1984 (though not particularly Special Ed) and afatchic.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Raivann, what about the third question there? Who do you think is likely scum at this time?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

BloodCovenent, one example of town winning a 7:2 game doesn't show that town is more likely to win that setup. Further, the F11 setup is not the same as a mountainous setup even if it doesn't have power roles. The scum interactions the first couple days before they determine that there are no power roles are different than they would be if they knew that there were no power roles from the start. The F11 setup with no town power roles is actually slightly better for the town given the lack of information on the scum's part than a pure mountainous game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If you mean what scum tells I've gotten including the possibility of the chosen my list would be Riavann (Nuwen), AshMC1984 (though not particularly Special Ed) and afatchic.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

HOw could Ash be Scum or Chosen but I'm less so?

AshMC1984 was doing things that struck me as potential scum tells. I haven't seen you give off scum tells in particular. With Nuwen and Raivann I find both of their actions troubling. If AshMC1984 was either the chosen or scum then you are as well but that doesn't mean that the two of you have given similar tells.

With Hohum confirming that the Scum cannot talk during the Day and Zorblag replacing in, the few messages that I saw about Herodotus with Papa and Zorblag don't look good to me. I have to think about this some more. I don't think that the messages were to confirm bussing but, something else. I'm watching you boys...

It's fine with me if you're watching us. It doesn't look like I'm going to convince you that the message idea doesn't make sense so I'll stop trying but I do want to make sure that you're also paying attention to what others are doing in the game. What else has happened thus far that seems suspicious to you?

I put "Keep the Chosen Alive" below "Lynch Scum" on my priority list.

Papa Zito's Priority List

1. Lynch Scum
2. Keep Chosen Alive
3. Keep Self Alive

See?

I'm worried about Zorblag putting so much emphasis on #2 and not enough on #1. A couple people have mentioned it and I'm starting to agree, this is starting to look like a distraction.

The goal here is to win the game. On that priority list I can win the game if we accomplish either 1 or 2. We can win if we lynch all the scum whether or not we keep the chosen alive. We can win if we keep the chosen alive whether or not we lynch the scum. We can win if we both lynch the scum and keep the chosen alive. I don't care at all which of the three routes we end up taking as long as it's one of them.

Other than the work that I'm doing and the responses to it that others are giving I don't see that much effort from others to keep the chosen alive so I'm going to keep at that. It should be easier day one to make sure we don't lynch the chosen than it is to make sure that we lynch scum; I'd love to do both but I'm not overly concerned if we don't as long as we don't get it wrong and take out the chosen right at the start.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, I do think that you're being old fashioned here, to a point that means that you're not trying to use the optimal strategy in the game. I also think that a tendency many players have is to assume that the standard operating procedures are the best way to go in most games even if there's extra information to be gleaned in the game dynamic that would indicate otherwise. An example from personal experience would be Open 111 (in New York) where people had very negative reactions to my suggestion of a partial claim early in the day to take advantage of what we knew about the distribution of roles. The arguments people gave then mostly boiled down to the idea that asking people to claim early in a game is normally a bad idea and so it must have been in that situation as well. Given that I'm not finding your reluctance to adapt to the game situation to be a particular scum tell but I do hope you'll get over it as the benefits we get in this game should even more apparent than the ones from the change from standard play I was pushing in Open 111.

The ice cream and bubble gum analogy isn't particularly appropriate. The chosen one mechanic is intrinsically part of this game from the get go, not just some sort of extra feature that we'll get at the very end. The scum have to take the chosen into account while they play the game if only because eventually they have to make sure the chosen gets lynched. That extra information about the scum's motivation from play is something that we can use down the road to help catch them. We do that by making sure we're all aware of the chosen and not lynching them early in the game. We don't stop trying to find scum, but we also don't blindly do things in this game which has a dramatically non-standard dynamic just because that's the way we usually do things.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Special Ed, there is certainly a benefit to using a random order, some sort of popcorn system or a voting system to determine how lists like the one I was asking for are given but they all cut down on the speed with which the information gets out there and I didn't want to tie up the game like that. As it was, I think that people made their lists after I asked for them with their next couple posts in all cases. I don't get the impression that anyone was stalling. Although scum might have held out on posting theirs till towards the end simply by not posting at all, all that I was looking for for immediate use was a general shape of who people thought would be excluded as the chosen and I got that.

Beyond that we will be able to look at when people gave their lists and who is on them when we learn alignments. If it turns out that scum held out till the end then we'll know they were more likely to have been trying to blend in. If they went early then we'll know that they couldn't have been doing that.

If everyone who's not voting for Raivann could currently make their strongest case for anyone else they choose that would be great. We don't want to be risking going to deadline without a lynch so if we're going to shift our attention we should start doing that as soon as possible.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, it looks like we are going to disagree here and so be it. The chosen mechanic adds an entire new path by which the town can win and has the potential to break this game open for us. In any case, for now we've got someone who you find suspicious and I find both suspicious and unlikely to be the chosen. I suspect that the difference in philosophy doesn't have to complicate things at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Special Ed, your description of what you're expecting from Mitey Mouse is surprising to me based on the two games I've played with her here (Newbie Game 749 and Newbie Game 791.) Could you link me any games where she did post all the time and respond to everything?

As for the communication tell that she's using against me, the context is as follows (and I discussed it a bit earlier): I replaced into NG 749 to a scummy looking partner. I needed to try to figure out whether he wanted me to bus him so I put up a PBPA which found him scummy and then asked if he and MiteyMouse had any previous experience when I already knew they were in an ongoing game together. The only communication that was supposed to happen there was that he could lie to me if he wanted me to bus him and then later claim that because the game was ongoing it wasn't really a lie. It was taking advantage of a marginal case about experience that people have and an ongoing game. It turns out that he didn't even notice that from his end. He was just trying to give me as many reasons to bus him as he could as that was his plan from before I had replaced in.

Taking this and thinking that I'm somehow using the same format of question to pass information in this game or set up a code assumes that I don't learn that it doesn't work for communication even in an ideal situation when the recipient isn't expecting it, that my partners here would be more sophisticated than a long time, subtle player in Albert B. Rampage and that I've got some information that I want to know or think I can pass on by getting a yes or no answer to a question that I would know would be no this time if I had looked it up prior to asking (and there's no way that town or scum should have motivation to say they've got experience with another player when they don't.)

If people want to respect my ability to deceive to the degree that they'd be willing to go for all of that then I don't know what I'm going to be able to say to help myself here.

As for the quote button, Herodotus's answer is as good as anything I could give. I always quote by hand so it doesn't come up for me.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

What is MiteyMouse's username for the facebook games? Is it still MiteyMouse? I'm looking through the Superhero game and not finding her at all thus far.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yeah, I figured out based on some things said in another game and the general speech patterns (and the avatar) that it must be Mandi. Thus far I'm on day two of Superheroes and I don't see the play you describe at all. I need to finish the game and take a look at one of the ones you listed where she's town though.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, I've now read through both Hamlet and Superheroes (well, skimmed and looked at what MiteyMouse contributed anyhow.) I think that there is a difference in contribution in those games from what I've seen here but that it seems to be in the end game. For both games (one as scum and one as town) the contribution the first couple days was much more in line with what I've seen here. Any leading of the town in both cases came towards the latter half of the games and I would not describe early game posting in either case as frequent or addressing everything that came up.

I wonder if Special Ed would care to comment on that?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yes, it was annoying which is why I only did it for two games; one scum and one town.

I didn't look at Labyrinth but what you're describing there does not sound like what I saw in the other two games. I think it was Superheroes where she largely lurked through the first 4 or 5 days and was only active in the 6th (and was then lynched right away in the 7th.) Hamlet she did start to take a more active role in the 3rd or 4th day but that seemed to be because she was a vig that got cop information from someone else or some such crazy dynamic. She was almost obligated to help direct the town with that role. The first couple days she wasn't any more active than she has been here so far as I saw.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Regarding PZ's thoughts on playing the game like any regular newbie game, isn't a bad idea, but Having Zorb's thoughts, and his worrying about the Chosen is also good. The hard part is finding the balance,

because if we can't kill scum, then we can't win. That's why worrying just about the chosen one isn't enough in itself.

It almost feels that we haven't done that much scum hunting, due to this whole "chosen" idea looming over our heads. But, anyways, more scum hunting to come day 2.

No, in this game we

can

win if we don't kill the scum. That's why the chosen dynamic is such a big deal. So long as we never lynch the chosen one we win at the end whether we've caught scum or not. Scum hunting is still good but avoiding lynching the chosen is equally good in this game and I'm pretty sure doing the latter helps do the former anyhow in the.

Both TDC and Raivann listed themself among those they might exclude. TDC also gave more than just 4 options and gave reasoning for his choices. I don't think that it particularly benefits someone to list themself so I didn't bring it up earlier.

As for why I'm voting for Raivann, here's what I initially would have said:

Troll knows that Nuwen has taken the time to look at Archon’s previous games as she identifies his voting patterns at the start of games despite only having been in one game with him (Mini 734 where he replaced after she was killed.) In this particular game the mafia would have had a strong reason to take a look at other games people have played in when deciding who to exclude from being the chosen. Further, Archon’s play in Troll’s experience be that of scum bait and him be a likely candidate not to be exluded as the chosen should him be town. Votes for him at the start of the game will inherently be suspicious to Troll.

Past then Raivann has kept his vote on Herodotus after the discussion that there's been about the chosen, the list he gave had the issues I brought up, I think it's pretty unlikely Raivann is the chosen and others I agree with suspect Raivann for other reasons. It's enough for me to put my vote there.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

EBWOP:

... and others I

agree with

think are likely to be town suspect Raivann for other reasons. It's enough for me to put my vote there.

I'm not sold on all of their reasons but I don't have to be. They can give them again if they want.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, here's one last thing to keep in mind about the dynamic for the rest of the game. The scum have a lynchee, the chosen. They have to get that person lynched. When it gets to the end of the day if there's someone who hasn't been attacked at all there's a good chance that they are not the chosen. That doesn't mean they should get lynched if that's the only case against them but if you think someone has been acting scummy and no on has been attacking them at all you can be pretty sure they aren't the chosen. If the chosen does act scummy the scum have every reason to try to get them lynched based on that.

Here's something the mod said in the other chosen game that was run after everything was over that illustrates how you can use this point:

(actually, I'll post it in a second in case twilight ends while I'm grabbing it.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I think ekiM made a good choice by killing ABR -- I'm almost positive that if ABR was left alive during Day 4, he likely would have self-hammered since I think he pretty much concluded that he wasn't the Chosen One since nobody really attacked him despite doing some fairly questionable stuff. It didn't lead to a scum win in the long run, but at least it prolonged the game and still gave scum a chance to win.

Remember that in endgame if you're sure you're not the chosen a self hammer is actually good for the town. This is very non-standard and normally town should never hammer in LyLo. Remember that this game is fundamentally different when making your choices.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I'm not sure how scum could avoid someone deciding that they're not the chosen in a LyLo situation. They get to act however they want but they don't get to choose what conclusions others come to.

If someone is going out of their way to attack everyone then that'll be a better candidate than normal for scum in this game. That on it's own should make it harder for scum to avoid the sort of situation that Albert B. Rampage was in.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I'm not quite sure what the concern is there. That doesn't stop a townie who's sure that they're not the chosen from self hammering (self votes are double votes though I don't think that should matter in most cases for the situations that we're talking about.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Welcome to the game Dry-fit. I'd love to hear your reactions to the first day when you've had a chance to get caught up.

TDC's death didn't strike me as surprising at all. I had him down as almost certainly town based on the questions he was asking about how the rules work and almost certainly not the chosen one based on my own thoughts and the responses to the survey. That combination is exactly the sort of kill I would expect.

Right now my best bets for the chosen one are Herodotus followed by myself. Herodotus is based on Nuwen's early vote for Archon and then, probably more strongly, Raivann's continued vote on Herodotus. I don't think that Raivann was a particularly sophisticated player based on what I saw here and what I've read in his other games. I can very easily see him simply going for the lynch of the chosen when he didn't have any better options at the start. I'm there because of Raivann's list of people to exclude which includes me at random when I both don't make sense on that list at all (and I did try to point out who she should be choosing between) and her other random choices looked as though they were simply following the lists others had made (to the point of including herself in the form of Nuwen.) I'm not ruling out others and I would rank the remaining players in likelyhood as follows: Dry-fit, afatchic, Special Ed, Papa Zito, MiteyMouse.

I think that Papa Zito and Herodotus were on the Raivann wagon too early for it to be likely day one bussing so I'm ruling them out as scum for now. I know I'm not scum so that leaves me with afatchic, Dry-fit, MiteyMouse, Special Ed.

afatchic's reaction to TDC's lynch is surprising espeically after he said that TDC was the only one he would want to make sure wasn't the chosen when making his list of those he'd exclude. His PBPA doesn't fit what scum behavior should be like in this game if my instincts about who is likely to be the chosen are correct. He's a bit scattered with his attention but right now I'm inclined to think that he's town. I wouldn't be interested in voting for him today unless it was to avoid a no lynch or something changes.

Dry-fit is replacing BloodCovenent. I like how BloodCovenent interacted with Nuwen and Archon at the start of the game. Especially how he does call Nuwen out for improper meta use. There are some issues with the list he came up with for exclusions (TDC's place among other things) but I'm not that unhappy with how he left his vote on MiteyMouse as I think that was a pretty safe place to have it. Unless MiteyMouse or possibly Papa Zito were to turn up as the chosen right now my guess would be town.

MiteyMouse's big push yesterday seemed to be her whole deal about me passing information to a scum partner based on a question I asked. Hopefully we can get past that idea now that Raivann has flipped scum. Unless someone thinks that I was trying to pass messages to Raivann with my question it's not an issue anymore. If someone does think that then they're going to shoot way up on my suspicion list unless they can give some probable way that would have worked. There's some chance that she was trying to work her way around to involving Herodotus in her suspicions there which I don't like and right now I don't have a great reason to think that she's done anything to help the town. I'd be fine lynching MiteyMouse today as I think she is unlikely to be the chosen and don't have a reason to think she's not scum.

Special Ed seems to be on top of his game; I like that in a player. He's replaceing AshMC1984 who I think could have been a good candidate for being the chosen but no one got around to voting for him despite how scummy he was. Special Ed's vote for Raivann could pretty easily be either what he describes, a townie agreeing with my reasoning and voting to end the day before we had to worry about the deadline or a calculated move on scum's part to not be off the wagon when the day was done as it was pretty clear that Raivann was going to be the lynch no matter what Special Ed did. I'm also slightly worried that Special Ed seemed to be trying to set up reasons to go after MiteyMouse today while continuing to give credibility to her communication idea. As I think he's subtle I don't rule out the possibility of him intentionally mistaking who was killed last night to reinforce a later vote for MiteyMouse. As far as the scum argument goes I could go either way for Special Ed. Seeing more from him will most likely help. I do think he's a bit too likely to be a potential chosen one to want to vote for him at this point.

Vote: MiteyMouse

It's not set in stone and I'm not sure she's scum but she seems like the best bet right now for both avoiding the chosen one and potentially hitting scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Dry-fit, clearly you've read the game. I wonder if you can explain why it is that you think that it's better to simply go with standard scum hunting rather than trying to take advantage of an alternate win option that we've got in this game. I'm simplifying your opinion here as I don't know exactly how much you think it's worth paying attention to the chosen dynamic so if you'd like to correct my characterization of your play please do so.

I've already gone over why it's a good idea to be aware of the chosen in this game. I'll add to that the fact that it was the chosen dynamic as much as scummy play that lead to my vote on day one. If I wasn't using what I knew about how the chosen worked there were certainly other scummy players I could have focused on; I might have voted for scum elsewhere, I might have ended up voting for Raivann anyhow and I'm not going to claim that I was responsible for the wagon on Raivann getting the traction it did. I will claim that focusing on the chosen dynamic was useful in and of itself and it helped me find scum the first day. There isn't any reason that pursing the chosen dynamic needs to detract from our ability to find scum and I don't think that what I've done in this game is causing it to do so.

I'll also point to the latest set of statistics that I've seen about win percentage for town and scum. It was in the Mafia Discussion forum, this post here. Taking a look at the numbers for Coney Island you'll see that scum won 54.78% of the games in this forum. It actually gets worse nearly anywhere else you look. Anything we've got as a tool to help beyond the standard scum hunting is something that we should be pursuing.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Zorblag: Can you confirm that this is how you would order who you think is the chosen? Herod, Zorb, afat, Dry, Special, Papa, and Mitey?

No, my ranking was Herodotus, Zorblag, Dry-fit, afatchic, Special Ed, Papa Zito and then MiteyMouse. Why did you switch afatchic and Dry-fit in your list? Past the first two the order is pretty nebulous but it's what I'm currently thinking.

Papa Zito, I don't mind people agreeing with me but why do you think that MiteyMouse is our most probable scum right now?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Right now I want to hear what afatchic and MiteyMouse are thinking about the game and who their suspects are. I'd like to hear who Herodotus is suspicious of as well but I'm less concerned about his level of participation.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So, I went back and started looking at the people that voted for him as, it is likely that there was some bussing going on here.

Zorblag...well he started up the votes on Raivann here. Now, this is because he thought that Raiv was the least likely to be the Chosen and that's fair. I also think that you did pass a code and I think that I know what it is now...hehehe!

I'll let Papa Zito and Special Ed talk about the other things in your post (or at least have first crack at them) but just looking at this bit of what you've said a couple questions spring to mind.

Why would you expect scum to bus on day one in a game with just two scum? We've got 4 players who were off the Raivann wagon still in the game and just 3 who were on it which is a really easy situation for scum to have arranged after the lynch using their night kill. Why assume that scum likely bussed rather than trying to blend in with those others who didn't go for the lynch?

If you think that I did pass a code and that you know what it is why aren't you voting me? There were only two scum in the game. Or do you think that I'm passing a coded message to the town as a town member? Or a coded message to the scum as a town member for some reason?

If you think that I was doing it as scum I'm calling for you to say what you think it was as I don't think you'll have an answer that makes sense and I think you're pushing an idea that had little merit at the start and none now.

If you think that I was doing it as town I'm still calling for you say what you think it is. I've not passed any code along to the town but even if I was I wouldn't mind the whole town seeing it explicitly.

In all, I call. Show me my code passing.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Zorblag: Why aren't you concerned about Herodotus' participation level? Even if he is not the lynch for today, it is still immportant for everyone to contribute their thoughts on who is scum. How is it acceptable to let a player not fully contribute?

I'm less concerned about Herodotus's level of participation than those of afatchic and MiteyMouse because I see evidence that he's following the game today and based on his previous play in this game and others I believe that he will be participating in a useful way. afatchic and MiteyMouse had posted once each today without giving me good insight into where their thoughts were when I made that post and I was not inspired by what they had to add yesterday.

No one should get a free pass as far as participation goes but I'm more concerned about my need to prod some about it than others.

Zorblag...well he started up the votes on Raivann here. Now, this is because he thought that Raiv was the least likely to be the Chosen and that's fair. I also think that you did pass a code and I think that I know what it is now...hehehe!

Yeah...I got tunnel visioned on this idea and I still want to think that I saw something. I was thinking at first that I thought you and Papa were coding as Scum and then thought that you were sending codes as to who you thought that the Chosen was. I'm really thinking, based on your excluded data that Herodotus is probably the Chosen and you have straight out said that you think that so, if it was a code about that I'm not giving anything away. I wasn't voting for you are the end of the Day because I thought (and am still leaning towards) you being Town.

Ed...I was not the first that pointed that out nor have I been the last. I was just commenting on it. Take it how you will. You dropping the hammer early could look like a mercy killing so that Raivann didn't have a chance to imcriminate his partner. That is part of why it bothered me.

I still think that the Scum was in on the Raivann lynch. The sad part is that I suspect you all equally and am not willing to rule any of you out yet.

So what I'm getting from this is that you think that I was using some sort of code to pass messages about who the chosen was despite the fact that I've been very vocal about the chosen and who I think it is. I'm not quite clear who I was supposed to be sending that to but it looks like it was Papa Zito? Further, at the end of the day you weren't voting for me because you thought I was town. You're still leaning that way now (though this is reduced? or am I reading the implication there wrong?) but at the same time you think that one of Papa Zito, Special Ed or I are scum as we were on the Raivann wagon and you suspect us all equally.

Should I believe all of that based on what you're saying so far or am I getting the wrong impression about anything?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Also, MiteyMouse, in your experience with people in this game which three would you say are the the most dangerous when they play scum? Which of those three if any do you think would consistently use standard scum tactics?

I don't have any problem with thinking that scum might have been on Raivann's wagon. My second suspect right now is Special Ed and he was the hammer on the wagon. On the other hand I do have a problem with the assumption that scum are going to play predictably enough that we can rule out anyone who wasn't on the wagon just because it's vaguely standard wisdom that scum should bus their partner if their partner is going down anyhow. I'm surprised that MiteyMouse would rely on a tell like that to screen out half of the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Mod: Can you please prod afatchic?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Will Do

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, what then are your current thoughts on Papa Zito and I? Have you had a chance to look at the other players since your last reply to me? What was it that put Special Ed over the top for you; that is, could you summarize why you now suspect him more than anyone else?

Also, for posterity, this is my 1000th game post here on mafia scum. I probably need to start trying to find other hobbies.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Also, Herodotus, please weigh in on the relative merits of a MiteyMouse lynch vs. a Special Ed lynch if you will. I think you have been watching and would like to get your input. If they're both bad ideas what would be a better idea?

Mod: Did we get an afatchic prod?

yep

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I agree that it looks like L-1 for Special Ed at this point. I wouldn't mind his lynch at all (if people want I can go over my reasons) but I haven't seen MiteyMouse do anything to take her off my number one spot. Her answers to the questions I've been asking seem to be pretty inconsistent and I don't know that I find what she's saying about Special Ed any more compelling than what she's said before. I want to see what Herodotus and afatchic have to say before I do anything different with my vote at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yeah, if Special Ed isn't scum it will have been much better to have heard from afatchic or his replacement before we lynch. Past that I'm satisfied with the Special Ed lynch.

First, it was true. I would have been okay with an Ash lynch on day 1.
More importantly, I wanted to see if anyone preferred Ash over Raivann for the lynch. At the time, I didn't know whether Raivann was scum or a VT (though it was pretty safe to assume he wasn't the chosen.) But either way, I was offering to push on Ash instead of Raivann, and PZ was already voting for him. If Ash was the chosen, I expected the scum would probably take me up on this offer to switch, even if Raivann was town. But instead, the scum were okay with one of their own (Raivann) being lynched instead of Ash. Even Raivann-scum didn't seem too interested in turing my attention toward Ash.
So I doubt that Ash/Ed is the chosen. If he is, both of the scum are sly and don't mind gambits -- sacrificing one of their own to convince us (or at least me) that Ash/Ed isn't likely to be the chosen.
The easiest explanation for why the scum did not prefer an Ash/Ed lynch over a Raivann-scum lynch is that a lynch on Ash/Ed would have been equally bad for them, i.e. they were both scum.

Of all of the votes on the wagon, Ed's was the one I don't consider a town-tell. A Raivann lynch was inevitable. If Ed knew Raivann was scum, I can believe he figured it would be better to be on the wagon than to be off it.

I'm surprised that Zorblag did not point out at least the first of these two issues earlier on day 2. Maybe he just didn't want to put words into my posts. There's a chance that he's scum on a gambit, and wants to avoid responsibility for an Ash/Ed lynch, but it seems more likely that he is town. Also, it's possible he wanted to hold on to Ed as a trump non-chosen lynch. That last part was one reason why I was inactive earlier on this day -- to see who, if anyone, pushed an Ed lynch.

For the record, having a reputation, even if it's a mild as mine is, is teh suck. All these rumors of my competence are greatly exaggerated. I did point out that Special Ed's vote for Raivann was a particularly convenient one. I also dropped Special Ed to 5th on my list of likely chosen ahead of only Papa Zito and MiteyMouse. I didn't go into the reasons but the fact that AshMC1984 didn't get more in the way of attacks was a big part of it. Past that I didn't see the particular trick Herodotus was up to with his offer to switch back to AshMC1984 though now that he's pointed it out it was a nice one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Actually, Special Ed, if you're town you haven't done much at all in the way of saying what your suspicions are today. As you seem OK with the idea of being lynched because it's unlikely that you're the chosen it's a bit surprising to me that you're not doing more to help us figure out who the scum is likely to be if it's not you. Right now it seems that it's more likely that you think it's MiteyMouse than anyone else but I can't tell what you think about anyone else right now. Care to share?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Special Ed, some of us dense people saw the joke, don't worry.

I would like to see your answer to Papa Zito's more specific questions though. I'm glad that you answered my more general question but if you're town more in depth reasons for what you're thinking can only help as we go on. If I were to focus on one person in particular there are a number of things that I could add to the reasons that I don't care for what MiteyMouse has done that I haven't mentioned but my attention has been pretty strongly there for most of today so I won't. More particulars as this point from you would be appreciated.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I agree that hero has made a good case for him being the Chosen, I think it will lose some validity after my lynch, however.

Unless you end up being the chosen why should that be the case?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

As for whether the other post is sufficient, it's up to you. Again, if you're town and expecting to be lynched my hope is that you'll do what you can to pass any helpful thoughts on to the rest of the town before you get killed. I'm not going to stop you from providing whatever other information you think is worth sharing as it gives us more to work with down the road if you're a mislynch. Anything you don't say is useless to us by default.

Enjoy the shopping trip!

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, yes, I did forget. Happy Birthday MiteyMouse!

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

The trouble with drinking and then playing mafia is that I end up being so much more tempted than normal to act impulsively. In any case, I'm not that drunk yet but

Mod: Any results from the afatchic prod?

He picked up and responded to the prod.

Any more would be pure conjecture. The only added benefit you'll have to my conjecture toMorrow is that you'll know it wasn't tainted by a Scummy heart. The rest of the Town has just as much information as I do and just as much brain power.

It's not a matter of brain power. It's a matter of having and using eyes on the ground. I know that there are things that I notice in games that others don't. I know that there are things that I miss in games that others don't. If you don't think that there's anything noteworthy you haven't talked about that's fine but I don't advocate assuming others will come to the same conclusion you do just because it's the way things seem to you.

Also, I'm inclined to agree with Herodotus here. I don't think that he's been the one pushing himself as the chosen, just acknowledging that others have. So far as memory serves I'm the only player that's gone so far as to say that they're likely to be the chosen themself.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So MiteyMouse, if it turns out that Special Ed is town who would your top suspect be? What if it turned out that Special Ed was the chosen?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Interesting. I'm going to go to the store and think about what I've read now. I'll have something a bit after I get back.

Some very initial reactions:

Welcome to the game, Don_Johnson. I hate your trap there as it does very much come across as lying.

Special Ed, this is your chance to look at developing play and help the town determine who's scum. Don't just be a peanut gallery.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Enjoy what is hopefully a vacation Dry-fit. Before you go, how serious is your current don-johnson vote? I do hate what he's done but that doesn't mean that I think he's likely to be scum because of it.

don-johnson, you're voting for Herodotus. Do you think that he probably isn't the chosen at this point? If so, why not? If not, why are you voting him? Has your read of the rest of the game given you any new thoughts on me other than what you said earlier about noting my failure to vote for Nuwen by the end of page five? Why would you think that we wouldn't want to get your opinions on everyone on record before the lynch even if it was a given that Special Ed was the lynch for today? Also, it doesn't matter but the scum got to exclude 4 out of 7 players from being the chosen so really it's a random chance of any 3 rather than any 4 being the chosen if we're strictly looking at those numbers.

Special Ed, I still think that you're most likely to be lynched. I'm asking for you opinions over and over again because if you're town I'll know that your intentions at least were in the right place. I can judge your accuracy as the game goes along. I can't speak for the others in this game or in other games at the site but I do know that I'm playing to win. I don't care if I get lynched or not so long as my team wins. Right now I know that I'm town and I think that I could be the chosen so I will try to prevent my lynch but that's only because I think being lynched will hurt the town. I know that I'm wrong often enough not to care at this stage in the game whether we lynch my first choice (still MiteyMouse if it matters to anyone) or not.

Using the information that we're getting now in terms of how people are acting is absolutely part of playing the game. Down the road in this game in particular this exchange will reveal attacks that people are making that can be used when we're trying to figure out who the chosen is.

Papa Zito, what do you think of don-johnson so far? Any change on Herodotus based on the gambits that are being bandied about?

MiteyMouse, I'm not comfortable with your almost ambivalent stance on potential scum past Special Ed. Why does Papa Zito continue to make your list? Why am I now off it?

Herodotus, now that you've thought about it do you think that don_johnson is likely to be scum or town just based on his gambit. Do you have any reasons other than that to clear him or suspect him?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, before I do anything else, Herodotus, what did OERDYYDOEE stand for?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If Papa Zito hadn't been killed last night it would have been time to start asking why he was still alive. No one was seriously attacking him other than perhaps MiteyMouse and he was a very good candidate for exclusion; both of those made him unlikely to be the chosen. He was an engaged player which the town will need as the game comes down to the end.

His death is also interesting so far as MiteyMouse goes. He and Special Ed (both now dead and known townies) were the only ones that seemed to be with me in advocating a MiteyMouse lynch yesterday. I know that I'm town so that means that the scum had a fairly easy target to go for in MiteyMouse yesterday who they could probably get lynched without looking too suspicious. If MiteyMouse was the chosen they really should have been doing that. The one exception would be if afatchic/don_johnson is the remaining scum he would have had reason to hold back from the MiteyMouse push as afatchic wasn't really around during the early part of the day and by the time don_johnson got here Special Ed was almost certainly going to be lynched anyhow.

don_johnson, one your last comments was that we should look to those today who were leading the town if Special Ed didn't come up scum. Who did you have in mind with that?

Dry-fit, it's been a while. I'd like to get your reactions to what has happened lately.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, here's a fairly important question (well, the follow up probably is depending on how you answer this.) Thinking about everything that you know about what's been said how likely do you think it is that you're the chosen if don_johnson and I are both town?

explain why scumdj would hold back from the miteymouse lynch yesterday? i was obviously willing to make some waves and by doing so incurred suspicion upon myself. if scumdj knew miteymouse was the chosen, what benefit would i have had to do what i did instead of steering the lynch to someone, who by all accounts, could easily have been lynched in ed's place.

You made waves when you came in and established yourself as a player who's willing to get into it with people. I've played games with you so I knew that was true anyhow but you didn't really take any big risks by doing it. If you're scum, something that would have looked terrible for you today would be if you pushed for a change when we were at the doorstep of voting Special Ed (and we really were, both Herodotus and I were willing to hammer before you arrived even if he's the one that came out and said it explicitly while I was only giving tacit support for the lynch) to someone else who turned out to be the chosen one. As scum it would be a much better play to let yesterday unfold how it did and then try to ride my convictions as well as those of Papa Zito and Special Ed,two dead townies who were on record yesterday saying that MiteyMouse was one of their top suspects, to an easy chosen lynch that doesn't implicate you nearly as much.

you and herod are more suspicious now, similar to how you are stating you would feel about pz if he was still here. fortunately, perhaps, miteymouse should most certainly be scrutinized at this point.

How likely do you think Herodotus was to have been killed last night? How likely do you think I was to have been killed last night? I think the answers to those two questions should be different but I'd like to see what you come up with.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

do you think mitey is likely to be the chosen? i.e. your theory only applies if i am scum and mitey is the chosen.

First off, that was exactly the context in which I brought it up. You asked how it would benefit you as scum and are responding to my answer. Here was the original comment from me:

If MiteyMouse was the chosen they really should have been doing that. The one exception would be if afatchic/don_johnson is the remaining scum he would have had reason to hold back from the MiteyMouse push as afatchic wasn't really around during the early part of the day and by the time don_johnson got here Special Ed was almost certainly going to be lynched anyhow.

Second, I think that you should know my thoughts on whether or not MiteyMouse is the chosen at this point if you've read the game. I'll answer in a bit but I'd like to know who you think I think are likely to be the chosen at this time (or even as recently as yesterday.)

chosen was much more valuable with the scumteam intact.

Why would you think that?

speaking of: should we consider the idea of a 3 person scumteam? not sure how that would counterbalance the chosen mechanic, but common sense tells me 2 scum, 1 left.

When I was first joining the game as a replacement I read through the rules and just assumed that there would probably be three scum to balance out the chosen dynamic. The reason I decided that this almost certainly wasn't the case was that when hohum was advertising the game he said it was going to be just like the one incognito was running with one (minor?) change. My interpretation was that the change was that self votes now counted as double votes.

@ everyone else, I wonder if you wouldn't mind answering the question I asked of don_johnson. His answer is interesting to me and I'd like to see what others have to say so I've got something to compare it to.

How likely do you think Herodotus was to have been killed last night? How likely do you think I was to have been killed last night? I think the answers to those two questions should be different but I'd like to see what you come up with.

why would the answers be different? you both seem to be pretty popular here in this thread. i.e. people are in general agreement that you are both town. players who are not nightkilled are either scum, lucky, or the chosen. i am surprised that neither of you is dead which bolsters the idea that one of you may be the chosen, but also that one of you may be scum

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I've been inactive as things have been busy. Right now I'm terribly tired so I'll do less than I should but I'll have some thoughts tomorrow. Some things that will help with those would be the following:

MiteyMouse: What was your answer on how likely you are to be the chosen if both don_johnson and I are town? You said you'd have to think about it but then didn't get back to it.

don_johnson: I still want to see an explanation for why you think that the chosen was much more valuable before one of the scum got killed.

Herodotus: I really want to see you take more of an active role in the game. It looks like you're starting to with your last post and I'm hoping that you'll follow that tendency.

Dry-fit: Hopefully your V/LA went well. I'm looking forward to your thoughts in general.

Beyond that, MiteyMouse hit on the main reason that I'd expect the answers to how likely Herodotus and I were to be killed during the night. No matter what Herodotus's role actually is there's been a lot of speculation that he's likely to be the chosen. I'd be very surprised to see him die during the night. If he's scum or the chosen he wouldn't. If he's town then the scum have every reason to want to leave him in as he's unlikely to get mislynched at this time and that means the chosen is more likely to get mislynched.

With myself, I think that I'm the only one who's gone out of the way to say that I've got a fair chance of being the chosen. I've also been a somewhat active player in this game. If I am the chosen the the scum can't kill me but if I'm not then there's less reason for the scum to leave me alive for confusion purposes than there is for Herodotus.

Also, don_johnson, what's up with saying that someone's point of view for how likely people were to be left alive sounded like scum reasoning rather than town? If you're trying to figure out who it might make sense for the scum to kill you've got to try to think through what concerns they have. I know you've retracted it but I don't like your post and the implied attack there at all.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Three questions for everyone:

How do you feel about making the assumption that at least one of the scum players has voted for the chosen?
How about the assumption that the remaining scum player (we know there is only one, right?) has voted for the chosen?
That the remaining scum player has stated suspicions against the chosen?

Day two was pretty focused (one Special Ed and MiteyMouse) so that's going to work against any of those assumptions. I would guess that it's likely at least one of the scum voted for the chosen in day one. Of the players left almost everyone has stated some suspicion of everyone else so the third is probably yes as well.

I don't know that I think we should be assuming that the remaining scum has already cast a vote for the chosen yet though. It's certainly possible but I know if I'd bump it up to likely.

I don't think that MiteyMouse is likely to be the chosen at all unless don_johnson is scum. I went over that a bit earlier. Yesterday was just too easy an opportunity for anyone else as scum to try to take her out while blending in with a crowd and scum need to take out the chosen.

I don't agree that people who have played with afatchic would have excluded him as the chosen but I also don't think that it's likely he ended up as the chosen. I think that don_johnson has a fair chance of being scum in part because I don't see in his play here what I did in the other game I've played with him (he went after people single-mindedly as town to a greater degree than what he's doing here), in part because I just don't like most of his play so far and in part because looking back at afatchic there's a lot of that play I don't like.

afatchic only ruled TDC out as being someone he would pick as the chosen and then would have picked the rest randomly (post 10 in isolation) but then in his next post he said that he definitely thought Archon would have been one of the players that didn't get excluded. He didn't defend quiteRaivann but apparently he never saw him as scummy, listing him as neutral with no other comments in his PBPA and then made some curious comments in 13 and 15. He did alot of lurking rather than contributing but his one vote of the game was a random vote for Blood Covenent (which makes don_johnson's vote now more interesting.)

There isn't much to afatchic's game but looking at it now I don't care for it much.

Right now my inclination is to lynch don_johnson today. If he turns out to be a townie and I die tonight then I'd have MiteyMouse self hammer given what I know now but clearly it's not a call I would get to make. If I'm completely wrong and he's the chosen then I'll deal with that later but it would surprise me.

Vote: don_johnson

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

My meta on don_johnson is based on one game similar to this. I've actually played two games with him now but the other was much bigger and featured much more terrible play all around so it's harder to get past the noise in that to figure out what to expect from any particular player.

The expectation of play on it's own isn't particularly strong. It's that combined with the other things I mentioned (play in this game without using meta from both don_johnson and afatchic and that I don't think that don_johnson is likely to be the chosen) that make me comfortable with voting for don_johnson.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

i have lynched archon in every game i have played with him, twice on the first day. the vote was mainly to see if i could draw out the remaining scum if herod was actually the chosen.

You might have intended to, but you haven't. Archon was in endgame with the two of us in NG 751 and didn't get lynched (as it came down to the two of us as the potential lynchees.) I certainly agree he should have been lynched that game though. That you were casting the vote to see if you could draw out the other scum seems like it's probably a reason you're coming up with now as you never mentioned it back when it might have been more relevant. It might be true but it doesn't change my plan at this point.

Why would you think that we wouldn't want to get your opinions on everyone on record before the lynch even if it was a given that Special Ed was the lynch for today?

not sure what this is in reference to.

That was in reference to your stance upon joining the game (posts 442 and 444.)

funny thing:

I don't think that MiteyMouse is likely to be the chosen at all unless don_johnson is scum.

If he turns out to be a townie and I die tonight then I'd have MiteyMouse self hammer

so we are the only two you think may be scum?

Not really, no. Right now I'm using the chosen mechanic to come up with an endgame that should be a town win. The town wins so long as we never lynch the chosen. If you or MiteyMouse are scum (and you are my top suspects but I'm not sure by any means) then this plan does fine. If neither of you are scum it takes advantage of the fact that I think that MiteyMouse is particularly unlikely to be the chosen and that we can win if we lynch her in a three person endgame whether she's scum or not so long as we haven't lost the chosen earlier. If you end up being the chosen then we've still got a final day to sort things out which is why I'm leaving MiteyMouse till the last day. If MiteyMouse gets killed during the night that will leave me still in the game and I can reassess the situation then.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

don_johnson, I'm sorry to hear about your family issues; hopefully things will go as well as they can whatever the circumstances might be. I don't think there's much danger of you not getting a chance to respond to what I've said (we don't seem to be a particularly high energy group just now) and I am interested in hearing what you have to say.

Right now I am a bit put off by how little is going on in the game. I've got my thoughts on the situation out there and I'd like to know what the rest of you think. If people don't like the general plan I've outlined then I'd like to discuss any other options people think would be good to pursue.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Dry-fit, I'm giving the end game strategy that I'd use if I'm not there to help make a strategy. The rest of you probably do have some vested interest in keeping options open but my point here is that if don_johnson flips vanilla and I get killed during the night I'm going to be confident enough that MiteyMouse is not the chosen that she'd easily be my lynch in a situation where I just have to not lynch the chosen to win.

Herodotus, I think there might be a missing not in your analysis of what I'm working with but I largely see what you're saying.

MiteyMouse, it's time for you to chime in with what you think we should be doing now. I think that BloodCovenent was looking at you (after looking at a string of other players) for reasons that I don't find that surprising. Further, it would have been exceptionally easy for Dry-fit (his replacement) to get you lynched yesterday while garnering minimal attention for it and yet he did nothing along those lines. If you are worried about Dry-fit being scum and you being the chosen then now is the time to make a case for it. If you're not that worried about it then what do think we should be doing now?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yes, and I assume that you're saying that I'm willing to assume that #1 and #3 are not true rather than that they are.

I'm actually not quite assuming that #1 isn't true. I just think that it's fairly unlikely that don_johnson is the chosen. If he's town then I think it's even less likely that MiteyMouse is; hence the order of actions I'm working with.

My getting killed during the night is the thing I'm least certain of but if that doesn't happen, as I think I said earlier, I'll still be around to adapt to the new situation and information.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, the point that I'm trying to get at here is that yesterday Dry-fit could have gotten you lynched fairly easily without tipping his hand. He held off on doing anything towards you at all despite the fact that both Papa Zito and I cast votes for you right near the start of the day. Saying that BloodCovenent was going after you really hard on day one strikes me as an exaggeration; perhaps it would be good for Herodotus and don_johnson to take a look at what BloodCovenent did day one and let us know what they think though.

Why should each of us have equal chances of being the chosen at this point? We've got information about how people have been acting with respect to eachother. If you think that the scum are likely to have voted for the chosen at some point you must believe that the chances of being the chosen will vary from player to player.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I'll let Herodotus react to that if he wants before I say anything past this.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

*chuckles* That chart looks familiar Herodotus. Nicely done. Any other conclusions you're drawing from it? I think I'm seeing a few interesting things.

MiteyMouse, a couple things:

1. You're wrong about Herodotus not having voted for anyone before he hammered Special Ed on day 2. It doesn't show up in the vote counts but he did vote for Dry-fit after Dry-fit had voted don_johnson (and curiously don_johnson responded by voting Herodotus for the complete circle.) It doesn't show up in the official vote counts though so I suppose that's something I can chalk up to simply not being careful.

2. Herodotus voting for Raivann on day one did nothing to make him look more like the chosen. That should have come just from how Nuwen and Raivann voted. Herodotus voting for Raivann early does contribute to his looking more like he's town. I suppose that it could be an early, hard bus if he was sure that Raivann was going to get lynched but that's certainly further than scum had to go the first day when there were so many who weren't buying the Raivann issue.

3. Why were you assuming that Herodotus had to be the chosen at any point? I agree that he was likely to be the chosen (and I think still is) but assuming that it's the case is just a bad idea.

4. Herodotus might have been the only one still living who was on both lynches (though I'm not sure that makes him look bad for any reason) but it was only just. I know that I was completely willing to vote for Special Ed; my vote just wasn't needed. Had it been that would have put me in that spot rather than Herodotus.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I'm a little curious about your asking me about other conclusions while holding on to "some interesting things." I have noticed one other thing since you asked, but now I want to hear what you had in mind first.

OK. Is that because you think that I'm fishing for reasons that you come up with to use as my own? That strikes me as odd but I can play that game.

Here's the abbreviation for a couple things for me; I'll share what I've got when you've shared your thoughts:

1. F I N O R O O H R S N O E H H.

2. D D F T B T I D A S T W O F I S B I P #.

The second is actually more of an extension of another observation than anything new and the first uses some extra information from the game but the chart makes them easier to see.

Neither one makes me think that we should play today any differently than I already did.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, here were my thoughts (and then some explanation):

1. (This was the second letter of each word):

If MiteyMouse and don_johnson are both town then Dry_fit is unlikely to be the chosen.

It's similar to your observation; that first afatchic and now don_johnson have been the ones to park their votes on BloodCovenent and now Dry-fit. As Dry-fit says in his latest post your vote on Dry-fit (the only other one he's gotten) was part of a quick trap interaction; I don't think that you've spent much time at all trying to say that BloodCovenent or Dry-fit were likely scum. MiteyMouse on the other hand seems to have latched onto the idea that BloodCovenent might be scum trying to get her as the chosen much more strongly than I expected. In any case, MiteyMouse and don_johnson are the ones who I see has having made any serious moves that might end up with Dry-fit being lynched.

And now I'll go slightly against that trend with my #2 comment:

2. (This was the first letter in each word):

Dry_fit does fit the behavior that I described as something to watch out for in scum back in post 329.

As I said in Post 329:

If someone is going out of their way to attack everyone then that'll be a better candidate than normal for scum in this game. That on it's own should make it harder for scum to avoid the sort of situation that Albert B. Rampage was in.

Going out of his way is probably an exaggeration but it's the only thing we've got that comes close to that behavior based on votes.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Dry-fit's reaction to what I'd said about Herodotus's point and then use of it immediately after is pretty bizarre but do MiteyMouse and don_johnson really think that tunneled on MiteyMouse is a fair description of his play today?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Because he's only number three on my list of suspects at this time behind don_johnson and MiteyMouse and because I still like the plan that I've gone over at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

That's an interesting take on his 5 posts. Let me read through them and see what I see him saying:

Post 1: He finds MiteyMouse the most suspicious, Herodotus's hammer looks suspect, Zorblag is looking better based on day two actions, his vote for don_johnson was a quick reaction at the time and he needs to reread afatchic and he answers some questions from Zorblag and Herodotus.

Post 2: He replies to MiteyMouse's question about a statement he made about her earlier, answers a question from Herodotus about a statement he made about him earlier and questions Zorblag's read on don_johnson as well as don_johnson's read on BloodCovenent.

Post 3: He agrees with Zorblag that MiteyMouse isn't likely to be the chosen if both don_johnson and Zorblag flip town but he doesn't support setting up a MiteyMouse self hammer in LyLo ahead of time.

Post 4: He disagrees with how Zorblag is characterizing something and then takes issue with the conclusions MiteyMouse is drawing about Herodotus based on the evidence she's presenting.

Post 5: He addresses MiteyMouse's accusation of tunneling.

I don't see tunneling there at all. I see Dry-fit looking at and interacting with all the players in the game. If you think that he's suspicious of you in particular I won't deny that but his comments about you have been answers to things you've said as much as anything else.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

We're now four days from deadline for the day. We don't want to go to deadline with no lynch so we really should be picking up the pace of discussion here.

Dry-fit and MiteyMouse I believe that you've both been on and not posted in this thread in the past 24 hours (and actually the past 12 hours for that matter.) You're now the two who aren't voting. I'm not sure that I even know where you might be leaning unless it's possibly for eachother. In any case it'd be good to hear what you'd like us to do and it'd be good to hear that sooner rather than later.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

don_johnson, if you do get lynched, Dry-fit was night killed and you both flipped townie, given what you know right now who would you suspect as scum and chosen?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If you think so then so be it. I'm trying to do the same thing for you that I did for Special Ed; get more thoughts on the game from you to work with now while you're still around.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And now I've got that unambiguously which I think is useful. Any thoughts on the chosen you'd care to share?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I'm not particularly sure that's true (you're clearly standing up to me and Dry-fit had me as his second guess for scum as recently as the last game day while MiteyMouse is bringing up Herodotus as scum options) but one of the reasons to be thinking about how the chosen dynamic works and who is likely to have the role is that even if someone does slip through to endgame looking as though they're town it doesn't help them in the end if they can't get the chosen lynched.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I was a replacement for nadroj15 after the exclusions for the chosen were made, yes. With search down it's harder to look up but nadroj15 had only played one or two games here.

The scum got to exclude 4 of 7 townies so they didn't get to choose the chosen directly, just narrow it down to 1 of 3.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Do you mean those that are here now or the original players in the spots? That's almost certainly going to make a difference for what you're getting at.

Archon (or possibly ah2190) -> Herodotus
afatchic (or possibly ClockworkRuse)-> don_johnson
blood_covenant -> Dry-fit
MiteyMouse -> MiteyMouse
nadroj15 -> Zorblag

I suspect that both ah2190 and ClockworkRuse were replaced before the selection was made based on my read of the start of the thread but I can't be positive.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, if you think that it's not going to matter pre or post replacement then I'll be interested in hearing what you're trying to get at after you've got an answer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, and now I see that you're asking for this from everyone? Again, I'll be interested to see what you're getting at but given who's left:

Original Players: MiteyMouse and, er, afatchic I guess. At the time I would have read through some games of afatchic's and BloodCovenent's in isolation to see which I liked more; now I can't do that.

Current Players: Zorblag, Herodotus (and if you don't want me to pick myself MiteyMouse.)

Most of my choices from the first time through this exercise have already been eliminated.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I'm not at all convinced that people would avoid picking the chosen as someone they said they'd exclude if they were picking from the players currently in the game. That everyone's choices but your own are essentialy the same (Herodotus and Zorblag with MiteyMouse as the alternate for the two of us) argues against the likelihood.

I'm not particularly convinced that people would avoid listing the chosen on their pre-replacement lists now either. Actually, if we include yours they're also really consistent now. MiteyMouse and one of don_johnson or Dry-fit (or in your case both of them as you're not including yourself.) What we've got is people avoiding the obviously poor choice of Archon and the unknown nadroj15.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Basically I think that the reasons MiteyMouse is using to draw her conclusions aren't particularly sound. I don't feel that the scum are particularly more likely to have put the chosen on their lists here (especially in the case of who they would exclude of the players currently in the game.) I also don't see anyone making a huge turn around now and including Archon on the lists (as they'd have to defend that inclusion somehow which would be pretty tricky to do for anyone that has familiarity with his play.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And that's because you were asking who of the current players would people have replaced which is a more or less irrelevant question for this. The current players didn't have anything to do with the choices that those making the exclusions would have been looking at. I tried to bring that up at the start (though I didn't go into details as I thought it would be fairly obvious) but as I didn't know exactly what you were pushing at I didn't make a big deal of it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

We're down to just under 48 hours till deadline at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I will not be around for the last couple hours before deadline so I'm not going to be able to make any last minute changes in my vote to make a lynch happen. Right now I'd like to lynch don_johnson, I'm fine with a MiteyMouse and I would lynch Dry-fit to avoid going to deadline with no lynch.

don_johnson saying that 48 hours isn't enough time to make a substantial case strikes me as ridiculous but it also feels like MiteyMouse is using last minute stalling techniques to justify changes in opinion that wouldn't otherwise seem natural so that she's where she wants to be for tomorrow. That Dry-fit and MiteyMouse still haven't ever voted today is disconcerting; both of them as well as Herodotus should really cast their votes for the ones they want to see lynched now so that we can figure out what needs to be done to get a lynch to happen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@MM:
If you were scum, you would have excluded afatchic and Bloodcovenant, as well as Don and Dry-fit?

From 559 I infer that you suspect Don may be the chosen because Zorblag and I were voting for him. Is that an accurate understanding of your paragraph about him? If not, what was the significance of your reference to the chosen? If so, does that mean you believe that Zorblag or I is the remaining mafia member? If neither of us is mafia, and Don is the chosen, that leaves you and Dry-fit, and neither of you chose to hammer Don.

Also, sorry to hear about yesterday. Hopefully you're feeling much better now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Good work town.

I'll probably hold off on thoughts about how to balance the chosen dynamic till Incognito's game is over as well though I've talked with hohum a bit about it already so I won't have anything too groundbreaking for him.

Dry-fit, that was an ugly place to have to step in. I thought you did really well but having Herodotus actually be the chosen was just really hard to work with. I love that you called my bluff and killed me night 3. I had, like Herodotus, come to the conclusion that a no kill was the ideal move for the mafia (I failed to mention that somehow while I was alive) and once I was killed I used the same reasons that he did to decide that he must be town but I was much less certain about MiteyMouse not being the chosen than I was before I got killed. I figured that I knew MiteyMouse was unlikely to follow through with my stated plan and hammer herself but perhaps others wouldn't realize that. Putting yourself in a situation where you were following a plan that would lead to your loss if everyone went along takes some guts.

Herodotus replacing in really hurt the scum a lot this game. I think that if Archon had stayed in the game there was a pretty decent chance he would have been killed day one which would have changed things tremendously. As it was, he was more of a background figure than I would have prefered given that I know he can do what he did that last day but with Nuwen and (mostly) Raivann's play on day one there was no way I was going to lynch him unless he started to look actively scummy.

Also, people really should be open to looking for alternate win methods in unusual setups. In this game I really do think that using reactions to figure out who was likely and unlikely to be the chosen did as much for us as trying to find the scum. I was never particularly looking for scum during the game as it was always easier to try to avoid the chosen which leads to victory just as well. It was a bit frustrating that people found that scummy but I suppose people often frustrate me.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh