Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[don_johnson]

unvote

vote: dry-fit

that changes things. i have read nadroj.

i think i'm right with my initial analysis.

[MiteyMouse]

Hmmm...interesting twist here. Now can you all indulge me for a few minutes please. Of the players left, pick 2 who you would have excluded as the chosen please.

[Zorblag]

Do you mean those that are here now or the original players in the spots? That's almost certainly going to make a difference for what you're getting at.

Archon (or possibly ah2190) -> Herodotus
afatchic (or possibly ClockworkRuse)-> don_johnson
blood_covenant -> Dry-fit
MiteyMouse -> MiteyMouse
nadroj15 -> Zorblag

I suspect that both ah2190 and ClockworkRuse were replaced before the selection was made based on my read of the start of the thread but I can't be positive.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Hmmm...I'm not actually sure that that matters for what I'm trying to see Zorblag...but, for arguement's sake let's do prereplacements...with afat and Archon.

Am I really the only original player left in here? Hehehe!

[Zorblag]

Hmm, if you think that it's not going to matter pre or post replacement then I'll be interested in hearing what you're trying to get at after you've got an answer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

You know what...let's do both...if you're all willing to indulge me. Can I have the 2 players you would have excluded (of those of us alive) both at the start of the game and now...after all the replacements please?

[Zorblag]

Ah, and now I see that you're asking for this from everyone? Again, I'll be interested to see what you're getting at but given who's left:

Original Players: MiteyMouse and, er, afatchic I guess. At the time I would have read through some games of afatchic's and BloodCovenent's in isolation to see which I liked more; now I can't do that.

Current Players: Zorblag, Herodotus (and if you don't want me to pick myself MiteyMouse.)

Most of my choices from the first time through this exercise have already been eliminated.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[don_johnson]

pre replacement: mitey mouse and blood would have been excluded because i don't know mitey and blood is a bitch of a lynch.

post: herodotus and zorblag because i know they wouldn't be easy lynches.

[Dry-fit]

Pre-replacement: MiteyMouse and Clockworkruse/afatchick

Current: Zorblag and Herodotus

[MiteyMouse]

Interesting...I want to see Hero's answers before I answer and let you know why you are all indulging me.

[Herodotus]

You know what...let's do both...if you're all willing to indulge me. Can I have the 2 players you would have excluded (of those of us alive) both at the start of the game and now...after all the replacements please?

At the beginning of the game, I would have excluded MM and afatchic (assuming we're talking about the player list at the end of confirmations.)
If the currently alive replacements were all in place, I would have excluded MM and Zorblag.

Of course, if I were scum deciding at this point in the game whom to exclude, I might choose differently.

But as I said when we first did this,

If I anticipated that people would guess they would be excluded, I might do basically the opposite.

[Herodotus]

@MM: what are your answers to your question?

also,

@MM: in post 532, do you consider not voting until late in the day to be a scumtell on me?

[Herodotus]

EBWOP:
I edited that question to make it a little more direct. I forgot I was quoting myself -- so sorry about the misquote.

[MiteyMouse]

Thanks guys. My original players are Dry-Fit and Don. I might add Zorblag if I had to choose now but, mine were pretty random to begin with as, I had no prior playing with any of you except for Papa and Zorblag before this game.

Now part of why I did this was because (with the exception of me) we are all replacements in here. Hero and Zorblag got a chance to answer this question when it was answered the first time but, Don and Dry did not.

Now, I have just made this into our current incarnations to avoid confusion.

Hero

..originally picked Don and Mitey, in both Zorblag's list and now this one. After the replacements picked Zorblag and Mitey.

Dry

..first incarnation picked MiteyMouse. He picked Mitey and Don. After replacements he picked Zorblag and Hero.

Don

..First incarnation picked Mitey and Zorblag. He picked Dry and Mitey. After replacements picked Hero and Zorblag.

Zorblag

..original list had MiteyMouse. He picked Mitey and Don. After replacements picked Mitey (I used your secondary choice as you would not exclude yourself if you are Scum) and Hero.

MiteyMouse

...I picked Don and Dry...may have added Zorblag after the replacements.

Now, something interesting to note is that even though I am an original, Dry and Don both took me off of their lists after the replacements. Odd...but, not surprising to me.

Ok...I was thinking that if I was Scum then I would have put the chosen on my list of excludes to make it look like they were less likely to be the chosen...that is why it did not matter if it was before or after the replacements. What I then looked for were people that appeared more than once in the 3 (Zorblag's list early in game, original and after replacement) lists.

Hero

...Mitey(3) Don(2) Zorblag(1)

Dry

...Mitey(2) Don(1) Zorblag(1) Hero(1)

Don

...Mitey(2) Zorblag(2) Hero(1) Dry(1)

Zorblag

...Mitey(3) Hero(1) Don(1)

Mitey

...Don(3) Dry(3)

So...if I'm correct then whoever is the Scum has the chosen as either a 2 or a 3 on their lists above.

Now, I know I'm not Scum so, I'm not including my results...hehehe. I still put them in for arguement's sake.

I would say that the chosen is one of Zorblag, Don or MiteyMouse based on people that have 2s and 3s in any list....except mine

I'm pretty tired but, wanted to get that up. I will expand on it tomorrow once I've had a chance to think some more on the whole thing.

[Zorblag]

I'm not at all convinced that people would avoid picking the chosen as someone they said they'd exclude if they were picking from the players currently in the game. That everyone's choices but your own are essentialy the same (Herodotus and Zorblag with MiteyMouse as the alternate for the two of us) argues against the likelihood.

I'm not particularly convinced that people would avoid listing the chosen on their pre-replacement lists now either. Actually, if we include yours they're also really consistent now. MiteyMouse and one of don_johnson or Dry-fit (or in your case both of them as you're not including yourself.) What we've got is people avoiding the obviously poor choice of Archon and the unknown nadroj15.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

588 and 589 are just a little over my head right now.

unvote

I will vote again once I feel like I understand the gamestate better. If MM or Zorblag would like, you could explain this, but it may just be an issue of fatigue on my part.

[Zorblag]

Basically I think that the reasons MiteyMouse is using to draw her conclusions aren't particularly sound. I don't feel that the scum are particularly more likely to have put the chosen on their lists here (especially in the case of who they would exclude of the players currently in the game.) I also don't see anyone making a huge turn around now and including Archon on the lists (as they'd have to defend that inclusion somehow which would be pretty tricky to do for anyone that has familiarity with his play.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Ok...I only have a minute before work.

Zorblag...3 people did include Hero though. You, Don and Dry all listed Hero in their after replacement lists. That was part of what I pointed out, I never replaced but, fell off the lists of both Don and Dry.

[Zorblag]

And that's because you were asking who of the current players would people have replaced which is a more or less irrelevant question for this. The current players didn't have anything to do with the choices that those making the exclusions would have been looking at. I tried to bring that up at the start (though I didn't go into details as I thought it would be fairly obvious) but as I didn't know exactly what you were pushing at I didn't make a big deal of it.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[don_johnson]

i don't see the relevance here. with so many replacements, its really up for grabs at this point. if i had my way i'd lynch dry-fit.

[Zorblag]

We're down to just under 48 hours till deadline at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[don_johnson]

that's not enough time for me to produce anything else substantial. i don't think i'm the chosen, so you guys will have to make the call. i'm not moving my vote and i am not self hammering.

[Herodotus]

@MM:
If you were scum, you would have excluded afatchic and Bloodcovenant, as well as Don and Dry-fit?

From 559 I infer that you suspect Don may be the chosen because Zorblag and I were voting for him. Is that an accurate understanding of your paragraph about him? If not, what was the significance of your reference to the chosen? If so, does that mean you believe that Zorblag or I is the remaining mafia member? If neither of us is mafia, and Don is the chosen, that leaves you and Dry-fit, and neither of you chose to hammer Don.

[don_johnson]

are we mod abandoned?

wait. dry fit nor mitey hammered me?

herod: do you have any suspicions of zorblag?

[hohum]

nope
I'm still here.

Do you need something from me?