Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[don_johnson]

^^ what? sounds more like scum reasoning than town.

[MiteyMouse]

Are you commenting on my post Don? You do realize that Hero and I stated something along the same lines right? Why is mine Scummy and not Hero's?

[Herodotus]

I'm planning to look into the votecounts for the first two days when I have a chance, but that won't be for about 20 hours.

@Dry-fit: How are you feeling about Don?

[don_johnson]

sorry mitey, yes. i had to read your post a couple times to get it, so i retract my statement.

[Zorblag]

I've been inactive as things have been busy. Right now I'm terribly tired so I'll do less than I should but I'll have some thoughts tomorrow. Some things that will help with those would be the following:

MiteyMouse: What was your answer on how likely you are to be the chosen if both don_johnson and I are town? You said you'd have to think about it but then didn't get back to it.

don_johnson: I still want to see an explanation for why you think that the chosen was much more valuable before one of the scum got killed.

Herodotus: I really want to see you take more of an active role in the game. It looks like you're starting to with your last post and I'm hoping that you'll follow that tendency.

Dry-fit: Hopefully your V/LA went well. I'm looking forward to your thoughts in general.

Beyond that, MiteyMouse hit on the main reason that I'd expect the answers to how likely Herodotus and I were to be killed during the night. No matter what Herodotus's role actually is there's been a lot of speculation that he's likely to be the chosen. I'd be very surprised to see him die during the night. If he's scum or the chosen he wouldn't. If he's town then the scum have every reason to want to leave him in as he's unlikely to get mislynched at this time and that means the chosen is more likely to get mislynched.

With myself, I think that I'm the only one who's gone out of the way to say that I've got a fair chance of being the chosen. I've also been a somewhat active player in this game. If I am the chosen the the scum can't kill me but if I'm not then there's less reason for the scum to leave me alive for confusion purposes than there is for Herodotus.

Also, don_johnson, what's up with saying that someone's point of view for how likely people were to be left alive sounded like scum reasoning rather than town? If you're trying to figure out who it might make sense for the scum to kill you've got to try to think through what concerns they have. I know you've retracted it but I don't like your post and the implied attack there at all.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Don...I know that you have retracted the statement but, Zorblag asked us why we think he and Hero were alive. So, Zorblag was asking for possible Scum motivations. I gave them and so did Hero...you just jumped on me. If you were jumping on something, it really should have been all of us? I'm happy that you retracked it but, your quick jump on me gives me pause.

Zorblag...if you are Town, then it is possible that I could be the chosen. I know that you had that poll near the start of the game and my name came up a lot but, really the only person that I would have expected to exclude me died and flipped Town (Papa Zito)..the other was you. Everyone else in this game has no experience with me...well Ed did but, he wasn't here near the beginning. So...long story short, it is not out of the question.

If it is possible, then perhaps, we should be taking a better peer at Dry-Fit. Blood Covenent was all over me before he left the game.

[Herodotus]

I've charted the day 1 votes, which may have given me a small bit of information about the possible chosen.

Troll: Considering that Nuwen also was in the other game, do you think that our lists have any value if she was scum?

BTW, This became relevant when Raivann flipped scum. I hadn't given it much thought on day 2.

[Herodotus]

Three questions for everyone:

How do you feel about making the assumption that at least one of the scum players has voted for the chosen?
How about the assumption that the remaining scum player (we know there is only one, right?) has voted for the chosen?
That the remaining scum player has stated suspicions against the chosen?

[Dry-fit]

Mitey seems like she's trying to play up the possibility of her being chosen in order to save her skin because she is on the chopping block. She is by far at the top of my scumlist right now.

I don't like how Herodotus hammered so quickly. I checked in to post before my V/LA, but Ed had already been lynched. The deadlilne was nine days away.

Zorblag looked more and more town as day 2 went on. I like that he did his best to get Ed to present his thoughts before being lynched, not with great results unfortunately.

My vote on don was serious, but it was really a knee-jerk reaction. As Herodotus said, he made a claim that could only be a fake one. But thinking about it there's no benefit for scum to make that claim. I don't really find him scummy at this time, but he only just entered the game so I don't have much of a read on him. I really need to reread afatchick.

How likely do you think Herodotus was to have been killed last night? How likely do you think I was to have been killed last night? I think the answers to those two questions should be different but I'd like to see what you come up with.

I would have been extremely shocked if Herodotus was killed last night. Why nightkill the player considered most likely to be chosen? It would just decrease the odds the actual cosen would be lynched today. As for you(Zorblag), I would not have been surprised if you were nighkilled. No one ever really presented a strong case against you, so it would be unlikely for you to be lynched.

BTW, This became relevant when Raivann flipped scum.

But what should we take from it?

How do you feel about making the assumption that at least one of the scum players has voted for the chosen?

I think it's a fair assumption. We've completed two whole days, so by now I think scum should have gone for it by now.

How about the assumption that the remaining scum player (we know there is only one, right?) has voted for the chosen?

I think it's likely, but I'm not as sure about this.

That the remaining scum player has stated suspicions against the chosen?

This almost has to be true. The scum has to get the chosen lynched at some point, either by voting or by at LEAST pointing suspicion that way so others will lynch them.

[don_johnson]

unvote, vote dry-fit

i am basing this vote entirely off an iso read of blood covenant. replacements often find a way to squirm out of suspicion, but i played BC town in a newbie game and he was much more aggressive. i will note his early mitey mouse vote came after he made a case on nuwen. he also buddied to PZ after the early bandwagon.

bloodcovenant: remaining scum

mitey mouse: possible chosen.

anyone with experience playing against afatchic would most likely not make them the chosen, so i doubt its me. i don't know mitey mouse, but both raivann and blood seemd to lead me to this conclusion at the present time. more later.

i think i may have been wrong about the chosen being more valuable early on. i see now that if we keep the chosen alive then we win, right? still, chosen mechanic aside, we should be looking for the final scum and not worrying so much about the chosen. we can win with the chosen lynched, no? we shouldn't be too scared to move the game forward as who the chosen is is an extremely wifomic problem. we should simply lynch the scummiest players.

[MiteyMouse]

Dry-Fit...I was asked twice if I thought that I could be the chosen. I was answering the question. How is it that Zorblag is escaping your attention for asking the questions but, me answering is putting me at the top of your Scum list?

[Herodotus]

I don't like how Herodotus hammered so quickly. I checked in to post before my V/LA, but Ed had already been lynched. The deadlilne was nine days away.

Hammered quickly? It was in post 392 that I asked

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

as Ed was at L-1 and I intended to vote for him; then it was in post 482 about five days later when I hammered.

What did you want to say before your V/LA?

[hohum]

Vote Count:

dry-fit(1): don_johnson

Not Voting: Herodotus, MteyMouse, Zorblag, dry-fit

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

[Zorblag]

Three questions for everyone:

How do you feel about making the assumption that at least one of the scum players has voted for the chosen?
How about the assumption that the remaining scum player (we know there is only one, right?) has voted for the chosen?
That the remaining scum player has stated suspicions against the chosen?

Day two was pretty focused (one Special Ed and MiteyMouse) so that's going to work against any of those assumptions. I would guess that it's likely at least one of the scum voted for the chosen in day one. Of the players left almost everyone has stated some suspicion of everyone else so the third is probably yes as well.

I don't know that I think we should be assuming that the remaining scum has already cast a vote for the chosen yet though. It's certainly possible but I know if I'd bump it up to likely.

I don't think that MiteyMouse is likely to be the chosen at all unless don_johnson is scum. I went over that a bit earlier. Yesterday was just too easy an opportunity for anyone else as scum to try to take her out while blending in with a crowd and scum need to take out the chosen.

I don't agree that people who have played with afatchic would have excluded him as the chosen but I also don't think that it's likely he ended up as the chosen. I think that don_johnson has a fair chance of being scum in part because I don't see in his play here what I did in the other game I've played with him (he went after people single-mindedly as town to a greater degree than what he's doing here), in part because I just don't like most of his play so far and in part because looking back at afatchic there's a lot of that play I don't like.

afatchic only ruled TDC out as being someone he would pick as the chosen and then would have picked the rest randomly (post 10 in isolation) but then in his next post he said that he definitely thought Archon would have been one of the players that didn't get excluded. He didn't defend quiteRaivann but apparently he never saw him as scummy, listing him as neutral with no other comments in his PBPA and then made some curious comments in 13 and 15. He did alot of lurking rather than contributing but his one vote of the game was a random vote for Blood Covenent (which makes don_johnson's vote now more interesting.)

There isn't much to afatchic's game but looking at it now I don't care for it much.

Right now my inclination is to lynch don_johnson today. If he turns out to be a townie and I die tonight then I'd have MiteyMouse self hammer given what I know now but clearly it's not a call I would get to make. If I'm completely wrong and he's the chosen then I'll deal with that later but it would surprise me.

Vote: don_johnson

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Dry-fit]

Dry-Fit...I was asked twice if I thought that I could be the chosen. I was answering the question. How is it that Zorblag is escaping your attention for asking the questions but, me answering is putting me at the top of your Scum list?

I was mainly referring to this:

If it is possible, then perhaps, we should be taking a better peer at Dry-Fit. Blood Covenent was all over me before he left the game.

This just looks like you're trying to deflect attention from yourself by suggesting you're the chosen. Also, what do my thoughts on Zorblag have to do with this?

What did you want to say before your V/LA?

To answer the questions Zorblag asked in post 475. Mitey and I never got a chance to answer before the hammer. Don had a chance to answer but apparently chose to ignore the questions. I think time should have been given to have these questions answered.

@Zorblag: So you're meta on don is based off of one game? Do you think that's sufficient to consider his difference of style in this game a tell? In fact, don's meta on BloodCovenent is based off of one game as well. Neither is very convincing.

[Zorblag]

My meta on don_johnson is based on one game similar to this. I've actually played two games with him now but the other was much bigger and featured much more terrible play all around so it's harder to get past the noise in that to figure out what to expect from any particular player.

The expectation of play on it's own isn't particularly strong. It's that combined with the other things I mentioned (play in this game without using meta from both don_johnson and afatchic and that I don't think that don_johnson is likely to be the chosen) that make me comfortable with voting for don_johnson.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[don_johnson]

zorblag: i doubt i am the chosen, though i would rather we lynch scum.

dry-fit: these questions?

don-johnson, you're voting for Herodotus. Do you think that he probably isn't the chosen at this point? If so, why not? If not, why are you voting him?

i had no idea then and have no idea now. it wouldn't surprise me at all if archon was town that he was the chosen. i have lynched archon in every game i have played with him, twice on the first day. the vote was mainly to see if i could draw out the remaining scum if herod was actually the chosen.

Has your read of the rest of the game given you any new thoughts on me other than what you said earlier about noting my failure to vote for Nuwen by the end of page five?

not really. you are level headed, but that doesn't clear you as town. i would be comfortable lynching you.

Why would you think that we wouldn't want to get your opinions on everyone on record before the lynch even if it was a given that Special Ed was the lynch for today?

not sure what this is in reference to.

funny thing:

I don't think that MiteyMouse is likely to be the chosen at all unless don_johnson is scum.

If he turns out to be a townie and I die tonight then I'd have MiteyMouse self hammer

so we are the only two you think may be scum?

[MiteyMouse]

Dry-Fit...I was answering a question after prompting and had had time to think about it.

[Zorblag]

i have lynched archon in every game i have played with him, twice on the first day. the vote was mainly to see if i could draw out the remaining scum if herod was actually the chosen.

You might have intended to, but you haven't. Archon was in endgame with the two of us in NG 751 and didn't get lynched (as it came down to the two of us as the potential lynchees.) I certainly agree he should have been lynched that game though. That you were casting the vote to see if you could draw out the other scum seems like it's probably a reason you're coming up with now as you never mentioned it back when it might have been more relevant. It might be true but it doesn't change my plan at this point.

Why would you think that we wouldn't want to get your opinions on everyone on record before the lynch even if it was a given that Special Ed was the lynch for today?

not sure what this is in reference to.

That was in reference to your stance upon joining the game (posts 442 and 444.)

funny thing:

I don't think that MiteyMouse is likely to be the chosen at all unless don_johnson is scum.

If he turns out to be a townie and I die tonight then I'd have MiteyMouse self hammer

so we are the only two you think may be scum?

Not really, no. Right now I'm using the chosen mechanic to come up with an endgame that should be a town win. The town wins so long as we never lynch the chosen. If you or MiteyMouse are scum (and you are my top suspects but I'm not sure by any means) then this plan does fine. If neither of you are scum it takes advantage of the fact that I think that MiteyMouse is particularly unlikely to be the chosen and that we can win if we lynch her in a three person endgame whether she's scum or not so long as we haven't lost the chosen earlier. If you end up being the chosen then we've still got a final day to sort things out which is why I'm leaving MiteyMouse till the last day. If MiteyMouse gets killed during the night that will leave me still in the game and I can reassess the situation then.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[don_johnson]

reasonable. i will respond a bit more when i get the chance.

unfortunately

mod: v/la through august 19th due to family illness.

i should be able to post once or twice and i would like to respond to zorb.

[Zorblag]

don_johnson, I'm sorry to hear about your family issues; hopefully things will go as well as they can whatever the circumstances might be. I don't think there's much danger of you not getting a chance to respond to what I've said (we don't seem to be a particularly high energy group just now) and I am interested in hearing what you have to say.

Right now I am a bit put off by how little is going on in the game. I've got my thoughts on the situation out there and I'd like to know what the rest of you think. If people don't like the general plan I've outlined then I'd like to discuss any other options people think would be good to pursue.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

As far as Zorblag's plan is concerned, there are a finite number of ways it breaks down. In chronological order:
1. Don is the chosen.
2. The scum don't NK Zorblag.
3. MM is the chosen, and either Dry or I is the scum.

If Zorblag is town, and he is willing to assume #1 and #3, then I, having marginally more evidence against #3, should be willing to go along with it as well. I don't feel any rush, though.
Don, as the first lynchee under this plan, how do you feel about it?

I haven't been posting a lot, but I've reread some people in isolation, and examined the voting on a spreadsheet. Some significant observations include:
MM has only voted for people who turned out to be VT's. She has also stated suspicions of Zorblag, but hasn't voted him. Unless he's the chosen, then I think she is not likely scum.
Raivann didn't say much. I didn't remember him being very active, but in fact he was lurking more than I realized, and spoke only about me and PZ.
Nuwen managed to say absolutely nothing about any of the players who are still alive.

[Herodotus]

EBWOP: Oops, actually, Nuwen did talk about/to Archon. I didn't consider that because I was only looking for a possible connection between her and a scumbuddy.

[Dry-fit]

About Zorblag's plan: I think you're argument about Mitey being unlikely to be the chosen unless don is scum is fairly sound. However it seems risky to pick an endgame strategy that already has set up who will be lynched in lylo.

[don_johnson]

i am fine with being lynched as i don't think i am trhe chosen, but i stick by my original read. so i'm not self voting or anything like that. ill family has passed away so my response won't be until tuesday at the earliest. things are okay, it was not an unexpected tragedy or anything like that. more later.