Mini 817: Chosen (Game Over!)

[hohum]

congrats on your 1000th post!

[Zorblag]

Also, Herodotus, please weigh in on the relative merits of a MiteyMouse lynch vs. a Special Ed lynch if you will. I think you have been watching and would like to get your input. If they're both bad ideas what would be a better idea?

Mod: Did we get an afatchic prod?

yep

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[MiteyMouse]

Zorblag...I did do a reread of the thread and Ed still jumps out to me here.

Afatchick hasn't been around much so I don't have a very solid read.

BC/Dry-fit...I have my suspicions still but, honestly a ton of that is OMGUS.

Now...why Ed. Like I said a bit of this is gut and some has been mentioned before but, he came in and was just a pile of distractions. I'm fine with asking questions about what Day 1 is normally like here but, it was a distraction. He then brought up my meta, again distraction...that one was close to a full page and was quite smudgey. Zorblag kind of called him and I didn't want to add to that as, I have been accused of having a big ego and didn't want to have it be all about me.

While I'm at it then...he has come into Day 2 and he has grasped at 3 different straws against me...first that I wouldn't take out the person voting for me but, it's a healthy dose of WiFoM. Second, he says he thinks I'm Scum (no case here BTW) and that he agrees with the stance on me. Third that I brought up him saying that he's Town even though I was not the first to bring this up.

I did ask him for a case on me and I'll ask again...Ed can we have a case to back up your suspicions please. Oh and can you limit the smudges in it please.

His hammer on Raivann...well, he brought up my meta so turnabout is fair play right? Ed has dropped the hammer on himself as Scum to end the Day earlier than expected and limit Town talk. That hammer looked very similar to the one here....at least in my mind.

So basically one of these is not a ton of suspicious (except to me that will always suspect Ed..hehehe) but, together it doesn't look good for Ed.

Vote: Special Ed

[Papa Zito]

I believe Special Ed is at L-1.

Troll, you're still on Mitey. Has your opinion shifted at all or do you still feel Mitey is our best bet?

[Zorblag]

I agree that it looks like L-1 for Special Ed at this point. I wouldn't mind his lynch at all (if people want I can go over my reasons) but I haven't seen MiteyMouse do anything to take her off my number one spot. Her answers to the questions I've been asking seem to be pretty inconsistent and I don't know that I find what she's saying about Special Ed any more compelling than what she's said before. I want to see what Herodotus and afatchic have to say before I do anything different with my vote at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

Herodotus is totally the Chosen. No lynching the Hero plz.

I'm not as confident of that, but I'm definitely town, and it is possible I'm the chosen, so yeah, I think I'd only consider self-voting if we were at 3-player.

I like that vote analysis Papa. Thank you for posting that! Ed is my top suspect at this point and I feel badly for some of the reasons (mostly my gut) but, that is very interesting.

I wouldn't call that "analysis," but okay. In fact, some analysis might be helpful.
That second sentence doesn't look so great. I'd like to hear more than "gut." Hope you've covered that already.

Something that might be a bit giggle worthy if Hero is the Chosen...in the opening post of this game, Hohum referred to the Chosen as a "hero"...hehehe!

I would also find that humorous. Though it's not as funny to me as it is to others, because I haven't internalized the nickname(s), just my full username.

@Zorblag - congrats!

Also, Herodotus, please weigh in on the relative merits of a MiteyMouse lynch vs. a Special Ed lynch if you will. I think you have been watching and would like to get your input. If they're both bad ideas what would be a better idea?

I'm planning on it. I don't have time ATM. In fact, I've only read up to this post... 377 looks like it will deserve some comment when I have more time. This should be within 14 hours.

[Papa Zito]

I want to see what Herodotus and afatchic have to say before I do anything different with my vote at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Agree here, I just wanted to take your temperature.

Make some noise guys.

[Papa Zito]

I wouldn't call that "analysis," but okay. In fact, some analysis might be helpful.

[MiteyMouse]

Hohum can we get an official vote count when you get a moment please?

[hohum]

Official Vote Count

Herodotus:
Special Ed(3): Dry-fit, Papa Zito, MiteyMouse
MiteyMouse(1): Zorblag

Dry-fit:
afatchic:
Zorblag:
Papa Zito:

Not Voting: Special Ed, afatchic

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch

[Papa Zito]

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch

4 to lynch?

correct

[Special Ed]

I'm not as confident of that, but

I'm definitely town

, and it is possible I'm the chosen, so yeah,

be careful saying that, someone might turn it into a case against you. Especially if you comment on it later

[Special Ed]

oh, botched tags, my apologies. Preview is my friend.

[Special Ed]

Now...why Ed. Like I said a bit of this is gut and some has been mentioned before but, he came in and was just a pile of distractions. I'm fine with asking questions about what Day 1 is normally like here but, it was a distraction. He then brought up my meta, again distraction...that one was close to a full page and was quite smudgey. Zorblag kind of called him and I didn't want to add to that as, I have been accused of having a big ego and didn't want to have it be all about me.

Please point out the smudges. As far as I can tell, a good portion of the play on this site is smudging and looking for reactions. I'm not complaining about it, just pointing it out.

While I'm at it then...he has come into Day 2 and he has grasped at 3 different straws against me...first that I wouldn't take out the person voting for me but, it's a healthy dose of WiFoM.

Which is exactly what I called it, certainly not part of any case against you.

Second, he says he thinks I'm Scum (no case here BTW) and that he agrees with the stance on me.

Where did I say you were Scum? I just pointed out that I see the validity in the case that's been made against you.

Third that I brought up him saying that he's Town even though I was not the first to bring this up.

Yes, I think I also pointed out that you didn't bring it up, but you did mention it without really doing any looking back to see how often and in what contexts it occurred. You didn't ask questions about it like other players did, you just pointed it out as if it were fact and as if it made a solid case against me.

I did ask him for a case on me and I'll ask again...Ed can we have a case to back up your suspicions please. Oh and can you limit the smudges in it please.

I have yet to make a case against you or vote for you. And, where are these smudges? Are you referring to how I pointed out some WiFoM and also acknowledged the case against you?

His hammer on Raivann...well, he brought up my meta so turnabout is fair play right? Ed has dropped the hammer on himself as Scum to end the Day earlier than expected and limit Town talk. That hammer looked very similar to the one here....at least in my mind.

This hammer looked similar to which time I hammered myself?

I can think of 2 occasions. In the first game I played, I countered the investigator role on Day 3. I got him lynched. He was obviously an investigator. I was an outed Scum on Day 4, I gathered votes quickly and hammered myself.

In a game we played together, Mitey, we were part of a 3 person masonhood with 1 of us being a Scum traitor. You were lynched Day 1, the other true mason was Vig'd Night 1. I was an outed Scum on Day 2. I don't recall all my shenanigans, but I may have hammered myself.

So, how are those cases, or ANY case where I may have hammered myself so similar to an instance where you accuse me of hammering, not myself, but a fellow Scum?

So basically one of these is not a ton of suspicious (except to me that will always suspect Ed..hehehe) but, together it doesn't look good for Ed.

I would say, taken together, it doesn't look like a good case against me.

[Special Ed]

I just re-read the game again, and Ash looks even worse than I remembered. Dry-Fit's Special Ed case is also good. Now I'm conflicted.{{{{SNIP}}}

I cannot tell you what Ash was thinking or why he may have voted the way he did.

[Papa Zito]

I just re-read the game again, and Ash looks even worse than I remembered. Dry-Fit's Special Ed case is also good. Now I'm conflicted.{{{{SNIP}}}

I cannot tell you what Ash was thinking or why he may have voted the way he did.

Nor do I expect you to. I do hope, however, that you don't expect me to ignore your predecessor.

[Papa Zito]

Also: Happy birthday, Mitey!

[Herodotus]

I wouldn't call that "analysis," but okay. In fact, some analysis might be helpful.

No offense intended. Maybe it's just a question of word usage. For me, "analysis" would entail a lot of exposition. What you did there was collect a lot of data and present your opinion. I'd call it analysis if you wrote about the reason for each vote or something in detail like that.

---

I'd be okay lynching Raivann or Ash. Troll (aka. Zorblag) gave a decent reason for choosing Raivann over Ash, but I could be swayed back to Ash.

This was written for 2 reasons:
First, it was true. I would have been okay with an Ash lynch on day 1.
More importantly, I wanted to see if anyone preferred Ash over Raivann for the lynch. At the time, I didn't know whether Raivann was scum or a VT (though it was pretty safe to assume he wasn't the chosen.) But either way, I was offering to push on Ash instead of Raivann, and PZ was already voting for him. If Ash was the chosen, I expected the scum would probably take me up on this offer to switch, even if Raivann was town. But instead, the scum were okay with one of their own (Raivann) being lynched instead of Ash. Even Raivann-scum didn't seem too interested in turing my attention toward Ash.
So I doubt that Ash/Ed is the chosen. If he is, both of the scum are sly and don't mind gambits -- sacrificing one of their own to convince us (or at least me) that Ash/Ed isn't likely to be the chosen.
The easiest explanation for why the scum did not prefer an Ash/Ed lynch over a Raivann-scum lynch is that a lynch on Ash/Ed would have been equally bad for them, i.e. they were both scum.

Of all of the votes on the wagon, Ed's was the one I don't consider a town-tell. A Raivann lynch was inevitable. If Ed knew Raivann was scum, I can believe he figured it would be better to be on the wagon than to be off it.

I'm surprised that Zorblag did not point out at least the first of these two issues earlier on day 2. Maybe he just didn't want to put words into my posts. There's a chance that he's scum on a gambit, and wants to avoid responsibility for an Ash/Ed lynch, but it seems more likely that he is town. Also, it's possible he wanted to hold on to Ed as a trump non-chosen lynch. That last part was one reason why I was inactive earlier on this day -- to see who, if anyone, pushed an Ed lynch.

I support a lynch of Ed. I'm pretty confident he's not the chosen, and if he's scum, that would explain both Ash's scumtells, and why neither of the scum advocated for his lynch yesterday.

I have some things to say about other players, which will only be relevant if Ed is town:
MM - some scumtells and relatively low involvement on day 1. It's not enough to convince me that she's scum, but she'd be a reasonable future lynch if there is a day 3. Or the scum may kill her so that we have to make a different choice.

Dry-fit - his argument about Ed has some holes, but I still agree with it. As long as Ed is not the chosen, I don't find him suspicious. I didn't pay too much attention to BC yesterday, so I'll reread them if there is a night 2.

Zorblag - is capable of the level of subtlety needed to both bus his partner and avoid responsibility for the Ed lynch if Ed is the chosen. But if Ed was the chosen and Zorblag was scum, I don't think he'd have made such a big issue of lynching players who were most likely to be excluded.

tl;dr:

Let's lynch Ed. He's not likely the chosen. He could easily be scum. In the unlikely event that he is the chosen, I will become paranoid.

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

[Special Ed]

I just re-read the game again, and Ash looks even worse than I remembered. Dry-Fit's Special Ed case is also good. Now I'm conflicted.{{{{SNIP}}}

I cannot tell you what Ash was thinking or why he may have voted the way he did.

Nor do I expect you to. I do hope, however, that you don't expect me to ignore your predecessor.

Not at all. I just wanted to let you know I wasn't ignoring your post

[Special Ed]

I wouldn't call that "analysis," but okay. In fact, some analysis might be helpful.

No offense intended. Maybe it's just a question of word usage. For me, "analysis" would entail a lot of exposition. What you did there was collect a lot of data and present your opinion. I'd call it analysis if you wrote about the reason for each vote or something in detail like that.

---

I'd be okay lynching Raivann or Ash. Troll (aka. Zorblag) gave a decent reason for choosing Raivann over Ash, but I could be swayed back to Ash.

This was written for 2 reasons:
First, it was true. I would have been okay with an Ash lynch on day 1.
More importantly, I wanted to see if anyone preferred Ash over Raivann for the lynch. At the time, I didn't know whether Raivann was scum or a VT (though it was pretty safe to assume he wasn't the chosen.) But either way, I was offering to push on Ash instead of Raivann, and PZ was already voting for him. If Ash was the chosen, I expected the scum would probably take me up on this offer to switch, even if Raivann was town. But instead, the scum were okay with one of their own (Raivann) being lynched instead of Ash. Even Raivann-scum didn't seem too interested in turing my attention toward Ash.
So I doubt that Ash/Ed is the chosen. If he is, both of the scum are sly and don't mind gambits -- sacrificing one of their own to convince us (or at least me) that Ash/Ed isn't likely to be the chosen.
The easiest explanation for why the scum did not prefer an Ash/Ed lynch over a Raivann-scum lynch is that a lynch on Ash/Ed would have been equally bad for them, i.e. they were both scum.

Of all of the votes on the wagon, Ed's was the one I don't consider a town-tell. A Raivann lynch was inevitable. If Ed knew Raivann was scum, I can believe he figured it would be better to be on the wagon than to be off it.

I'm surprised that Zorblag did not point out at least the first of these two issues earlier on day 2. Maybe he just didn't want to put words into my posts. There's a chance that he's scum on a gambit, and wants to avoid responsibility for an Ash/Ed lynch, but it seems more likely that he is town. Also, it's possible he wanted to hold on to Ed as a trump non-chosen lynch. That last part was one reason why I was inactive earlier on this day -- to see who, if anyone, pushed an Ed lynch.

I support a lynch of Ed. I'm pretty confident he's not the chosen, and if he's scum, that would explain both Ash's scumtells, and why neither of the scum advocated for his lynch yesterday.

I have some things to say about other players, which will only be relevant if Ed is town:
MM - some scumtells and relatively low involvement on day 1. It's not enough to convince me that she's scum, but she'd be a reasonable future lynch if there is a day 3. Or the scum may kill her so that we have to make a different choice.

Dry-fit - his argument about Ed has some holes, but I still agree with it. As long as Ed is not the chosen, I don't find him suspicious. I didn't pay too much attention to BC yesterday, so I'll reread them if there is a night 2.

Zorblag - is capable of the level of subtlety needed to both bus his partner and avoid responsibility for the Ed lynch if Ed is the chosen. But if Ed was the chosen and Zorblag was scum, I don't think he'd have made such a big issue of lynching players who were most likely to be excluded.

tl;dr:

Let's lynch Ed. He's not likely the chosen. He could easily be scum. In the unlikely event that he is the chosen, I will become paranoid.

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

I agree, after reading this, that it seems unlikely that I'm the chosen. I am OK with being lynched toDay. At 6-1, we have 2 mislynches left to catch our remaining Scum.

[Papa Zito]

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

Good stuff.

I'd prefer we give afatchic/replacement a chance to weigh in before the day closes.

[Special Ed]

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

Good stuff.

I'd prefer we give afatchic/replacement a chance to weigh in before the day closes.

No

! I'm going to hammer myself like Mtey says I do when I'm Scum....and...

OK, the idea for this post was funnier in my head than it is in preview.

[Zorblag]

Yeah, if Special Ed isn't scum it will have been much better to have heard from afatchic or his replacement before we lynch. Past that I'm satisfied with the Special Ed lynch.

First, it was true. I would have been okay with an Ash lynch on day 1.
More importantly, I wanted to see if anyone preferred Ash over Raivann for the lynch. At the time, I didn't know whether Raivann was scum or a VT (though it was pretty safe to assume he wasn't the chosen.) But either way, I was offering to push on Ash instead of Raivann, and PZ was already voting for him. If Ash was the chosen, I expected the scum would probably take me up on this offer to switch, even if Raivann was town. But instead, the scum were okay with one of their own (Raivann) being lynched instead of Ash. Even Raivann-scum didn't seem too interested in turing my attention toward Ash.
So I doubt that Ash/Ed is the chosen. If he is, both of the scum are sly and don't mind gambits -- sacrificing one of their own to convince us (or at least me) that Ash/Ed isn't likely to be the chosen.
The easiest explanation for why the scum did not prefer an Ash/Ed lynch over a Raivann-scum lynch is that a lynch on Ash/Ed would have been equally bad for them, i.e. they were both scum.

Of all of the votes on the wagon, Ed's was the one I don't consider a town-tell. A Raivann lynch was inevitable. If Ed knew Raivann was scum, I can believe he figured it would be better to be on the wagon than to be off it.

I'm surprised that Zorblag did not point out at least the first of these two issues earlier on day 2. Maybe he just didn't want to put words into my posts. There's a chance that he's scum on a gambit, and wants to avoid responsibility for an Ash/Ed lynch, but it seems more likely that he is town. Also, it's possible he wanted to hold on to Ed as a trump non-chosen lynch. That last part was one reason why I was inactive earlier on this day -- to see who, if anyone, pushed an Ed lynch.

For the record, having a reputation, even if it's a mild as mine is, is teh suck. All these rumors of my competence are greatly exaggerated. I did point out that Special Ed's vote for Raivann was a particularly convenient one. I also dropped Special Ed to 5th on my list of likely chosen ahead of only Papa Zito and MiteyMouse. I didn't go into the reasons but the fact that AshMC1984 didn't get more in the way of attacks was a big part of it. Past that I didn't see the particular trick Herodotus was up to with his offer to switch back to AshMC1984 though now that he's pointed it out it was a nice one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Herodotus]

Is there anything else to say before the hammer?

Good stuff.

I'd prefer we give afatchic/replacement a chance to weigh in before the day closes.

No

! I'm going to hammer myself like Mtey says I do when I'm Scum....and...

OK, the idea for this post was funnier in my head than it is in preview.

I'm baffled about whether this post amounts to Ed claiming scum.

If you aren't scum, I don't think you should self-hammer. If you are, then there's no need to make us wait for afa to respond to his prod or, heh, be replaced immediately before the town wins.

[Herodotus]

For the record, having a reputation, even if it's a mild as mine is, is teh suck.

So I've heard. But I wasn't trying to place a burden of proficiency on you; in fact, I was wondering if it might be better to sit on the information I derived from that, in part so that the scum wouldn't be aware of a "safe lynch," and in part to see if anyone came out swinging at Ed.
If no one else had been discussing lynching Ed, I might have waited.

My minor suspicion of you was only based on the possibility that Ed was the chosen, which would mean the scum were willing to make a very subtle and patient play for his lynch.