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Post #30 (isolation #3) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 6:11 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Yosarian2 wrote:Someone (perhaps the person who modded it?) should also re-review a setup AFTER it was played once, and suggest if they thought the setup was balanced or not, any possible problems with it, anything that was unclear, ect. That is, we should re-decide if a game is good or not after it is run when we have more info, so we can know if it should be run again in the same way or not.
I agree with this. Also the game designer should be available for back and forth with the "certifiers."
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Post #33 (isolation #4) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 6:17 am
Postby shaft.ed »
I like the cycling in and out of tested set ups idea. I think the Open Queue List mod can update the Queue sign up thread (monthly) to change out the games that are available for /in'ing.
How about ~18 Total slots:
3-Large (>12)
4-Medium (9-12)
5-Small (<9)
3-Wild Card (mod's whim/popular support)
3-Experimental
EDIT: Another idea would be to cycle a game off the Queue once it's been filled and replace it with another from a similar category.
Last edited by shaft.ed on Tue Mar 03, 2009 6:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post #34 (isolation #5) » Tue Mar 03, 2009 6:17 am
Postby shaft.ed »
PokerFace wrote:You guys should have a member of your group willing to be devils advocate. basically its their job to break, abuse, or find flaws on purpose as much as possible in any setup so that these ideas are found and stopped before a setup is run.
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Post #137 (isolation #16) » Sun Mar 08, 2009 1:47 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
I agree with the three times running without an obvious breaking strategy being used rule of thumb.
I also think while AITP has a different style in order to win the game and is different from more standard set ups, the breaking strategy itself still involves reading other people's actions and thus it should be maintained as an available game for the Open Queue.
Xylthixlm wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:If there are no further flags, I think we can approve that list for a first batch. shaft.ed? Korts?
I'm just a guy
You're on the list in the first post
huh, I guess that shows if you just pretend to be something for long enough, eventually you'll get your way.
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Post #139 (isolation #17) » Sun Mar 08, 2009 2:00 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
Yay for argument and abuse!
One other metric I think would be worth considering is a "balanced" worst case scenario. This would make swinginess tolerable just as long as the swinging goes in both directions. Basically just calculate what's the fastest possible win for either faction and compare.
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Post #151 (isolation #18) » Sun Mar 08, 2009 9:35 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
Lord Gurgi wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:
Lord Gurgi wrote:Am I alone in thinking that the relation between size and power of mafia groups is not linear?
I see 2:4 or even 2:5 as being much more balanced than 4:8 or 3:9.
It actually is linear in nightless. With nightkills, not so much.
I disagree. Increasing the size of the group allows for greater protection, culling of the weakest, bussing without crippling the group, etc. The tools of the mafia become more useful as they have more members to run through.
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Post #163 (isolation #20) » Thu Mar 12, 2009 11:30 am
Postby shaft.ed »
I agree with a range of Nightless ratios as mith suggets. I'd like to maintain variety where ever possible. However, are we maintaining the EV's in scum favor because a theoretical town will perform better than random? I'd support inclusion of some pro-town EV scenarios as well. Maybe keep the goalposts between 40-55(60)?
Also editing doesn't work for me either (no option to edit on other people's posts)
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Post #173 (isolation #22) » Thu Mar 12, 2009 12:11 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
mith wrote:Oh, I skipped over the "however many signup" part.
The only problem I have with that is that some people may prefer certain sizes of game, and wouldn't have much say in how big the game got. Not sure what the solution to that is, or if it's even really a problem.
Solution is that the list mod maintains 1 or 2 vanilla Nightless set ups on the "menu" at a time. A smaller one and a bigger one?
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Post #197 (isolation #23) » Fri Mar 13, 2009 5:19 am
Postby shaft.ed »
mith wrote:I guess the main decision to be made, then, is: 3:9 or 4:8 or both? (Well, similar decision for 16 players; 4:12 or 5:11. But they are basically the same question... if we prefer 3:9, we prefer 4:12, and if we prefer 4:8, we prefer 5:11.)
I'm still in favor of 3:9, but wouldn't mind seeing both run.
Seeing as we're already running 4:8 I don't see a need to remove it. I also would prefer having more options not fewer, so maintaining 3:8, 3:9, 4:8, and 4:9 as all viable set ups would not bother me.
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Post #201 (isolation #24) » Fri Mar 13, 2009 8:24 am
Postby shaft.ed »
As far as number of trials to determine significance. I think we need to run a power analysisfor that, if you want to get technical.
It should be noted I'm a neurobiologist that works in qualitative data, so stats ae the bane of my existance, and I haven't had a real math class since high school.
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Post #207 (isolation #25) » Sat Mar 14, 2009 7:16 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Ether wrote:Standard nightless games found by searching for "Nightless" in Little Italy and New York:
Open 6 (4:8; town win) Open 19 (4:8; town win) Open 79 (4:7; I think this was the game Farside was talking about; town win)
So I'm really not getting the need to further handicap the scum.
EDIT: Open 79 was 4:7, not 4:8.
Ether if you read through those game one had scum lynched on day 2, one had scum lynched on day 1, and one even had scum lynched back to back on days 1 & 2.
This really points to very poor performance by the scum in these games. They aren't blending in well and they are throwing their weight around. Hell in a 4:7 game they only need two townies to wagon with them on Day 1 and they still wound up getting one of their own lynched.
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Post #210 (isolation #26) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 7:24 am
Postby shaft.ed »
So at this rate we might finish before a solar apocolypse.
I propose we nominate an Open Game Steering Committee in order to move the Open Game Certification Group in the right direction.
On a more serious note. I don't think we need to dwell on vanilla Nightless this long. Our sample size is obviously small, and I believe it to be rather craptastic as far as representation of a normal distribution. However, the game is clearly not broken, and we are not setting these rules in stone for all eternity. Can we please agree on a set of vanilla nightless games and move on to set ups that might actually involve breaking strategies. If the ratios that get run are clearly not fun they can be altered at any time.
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Post #215 (isolation #28) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 7:47 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Lord Gurgi wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:
Bird C9 (27, 98, 117)
(flagged by Xyl)
Trendy and Subversive C9 (90, 91, 94)
(flagged by Xyl)
Basic Twelve Player (3, 9, 54)
(flagged by Lord Gurgi)
Masons and Monks (12, 23, 56)
(flagged by Adel)
Strawberry (17, 46, 62)
(flagged by Adel)
Polygamist (76, 83, 88)
(flagged by Adel)
The New C9 (50, 60, 81, 104)
(flagged by Adel)
Nightless Vanilla (6, 19, 41, 79)
(flagged by Xyl)
Where shall we start?
Polygamist should behave similarly to Lovers no?
Masons and Monks is a 2 v 2 v 8 I ask that we lump these games together for a separate discussion because I think they all need to have crosskill issues resolved.
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Post #220 (isolation #29) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:34 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Ether wrote:What do you mean by "resolved," Shafted? Block the first crosskill on each group, or give the last survivor of a scumgroup nightkill immunity? I think multiballs will always be swingy. I feel kind of out of my depth here; I'd be curious to see some simulations (noting how frequent crosskills and prisoners' dilemmas are).
Yeah 2 v 2 v 8 is always swingy, but by resolved I just mean discussed. I don't think the town can win such set ups without at least one crosskill, but more than one and it becomes a somewhat easy win for town. I haven't modeled out how frequently to expect them without any sort of night immunity. But I was hoping to discuss if there were certain simple tweaks that could be made to hit a "preferred" number of crosskills per game.
So basic questions are:
How many crosskills should one expect with no NK immunity of any sort?
What are the EV's given each number of crosskills?
Is there a way to shift the expected number of crosskills to the most balanced EV without totally convoluting the set ups?
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Post #225 (isolation #31) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:23 am
Postby shaft.ed »
So in a "perfect storm" double townie death every night, this would effectively give the town one mislynch as you have a 1 v 4 day in Ether's scenario, but this requires the town to either a) get rid of a scum group or b) have a night where one townie is killed by both scum teams.
It still doesn't solve the opposite conundrum which is what happens when there are too many crosskills and the town walks away with the game.
Really need to calculate the crosskill odds, but I'm busy ATM. Maybe when I need to procrastinate more later.
Meanwhile, I think we should be discussing simpler issues right now. I think the natives are getting restless in the Open Queueueueueu.
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Post #229 (isolation #32) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:51 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Ether wrote:Is Trendy and Subversive the one with the {Cop, Nurse}/{Doctor, Deputy} split? I don't see the problem.
This.
I think the set up is quite nice. I don't think it should be blocked just because you don't like back up roles.
One point of confusion I noticed when skimming the games is that the mafia Roleblocker can block and kill on the same night. This needs to be made clear in the role PMs and to the mod running said games.
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Post #234 (isolation #33) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 10:44 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Ether wrote:I didn't even realize TaS had a mafia roleblocker. Dunno if it really needs one; I thought Pie started the trend to prevent a cop from claiming and getting protected. In both C9 and TaS, there's a 50% chance of that not working, which discourages the claim anyway.
The TaS town is definitely stronger than a C9 town in three of the four situations and equal in the fourth, but I'm not so sure that's a problem that needs scum compensation.
(I do like C9 as it is, even if it's scum-sided...it's a losing-builds-character sort of fondness. Back in my day, whippersnappers...)
The RB's nice because the Cop has two definite "outs" having a Doc OR a Deputy definitely in the game. It also discourages powerrole claiming which is nice given the near instaconfirm due to the set up.
Xyl if you have specific reasons why the Nurse slash Deputy are bad for this set up please state them so they can be aired.
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Post #237 (isolation #35) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 3:21 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
OK I think I see what we're missing.
Certify Trendy and Subversive C9
bandwagon to victory.
On a more serious note:
I see no breaking strategies. The only ones I can think of involve town power role claims. So at some point we should run through all of the various four role's viewpoints to see if claiming has any sort of breaking effect on unraveling the set up.
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Post #248 (isolation #40) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:01 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Lord Gurgi wrote:By "sucky" I meant "has a breaking strategy that is well known and simple".
I'm not sure how adding a roleblocker keeps this setup any different from all the other cop+doc/RB setups.
It has 12 players
OK so I don't mean to distract with a fundamental question, but is our purpose to decide which games WILL be played or which games CAN be played? My understanding was that we were to determine:
1) Is a game broken?
2) Can it be fixed?
If yes then fix it. If no then reject it for all time.
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Post #263 (isolation #45) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 12:08 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
I personally don't think it needs a name change. I don't think most people playing know what the C9 is about anyway.
Korts has a good point on the Cop/Doc never existing together. But does the scum need the Roleblocker in such a set up? It seems this tilts more towards scum with the RB in place.
What about Cop/Doc set up runs with just two goons while the Cop/Nurse set up runs with a goon, RB pair?
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Post #270 (isolation #48) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 3:57 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
Xylthixlm wrote:
Bird C9 (27, 98, 117)
(flagged by Xyl)
Trendy and Subversive C9 (90, 91, 94)
(flagged by Xyl)
Basic Twelve Player (3, 9, 54)
(flagged by Lord Gurgi)
Masons and Monks (12, 23, 56)
(flagged by Adel)
Strawberry (17, 46, 62)
(flagged by Adel)
Polygamist (76, 83, 88)
(flagged by Adel)
The New C9 (50, 60, 81, 104)
(flagged by Adel)
Nightless Vanilla (6, 19, 41, 79)
(flagged by Xyl)
OK the remaining flagged set ups have been flagged by Adel. I think starting with Strawberry makes sense because it is the simplest.
3 mafia
1 cop
8 townies
Not broken so the issue must be balance. Seems mafia friendly if given random lynches. Adding one town gives the town an extra lynch attempt given straight mislynches.
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Post #289 (isolation #54) » Thu Mar 19, 2009 1:42 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
I don't see any more issues being raised Re: Trendy & Subversive. Could people please state which of the two set ups (or both or neither) they wish to approve?
Strawberry fixes proposed:
3 v cop + 9
or
3 v cop +9 w/ cop head start
I don't really know how much more impact a cop head start is going to have. I think it does have the potential to turn the game into "cop tries to live through X innocent investigations and claims," but that's low probability because their investigations have to survivie to that point. I think they'd have one throw away out of the number needed.
The New C9 is rather large and thus complicated, Masons and Monks is a 2 v 2 v 8 which I'd like to discuss with the other 2 v 2 v 8's that have run.
That leaves Polygamist Mafia which is a doubled Lovers Mafia
a 4 Lover scum team vs 4 town lover pairs
Scum must direct 2 mislynches without getting any member of their team lynched. Believe this is about a 40/60 EV if I remember correctly. Should be harder than Lovers due to the greater number of interactions that can be picked up on.
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Post #291 (isolation #55) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 10:19 am
Postby shaft.ed »
OK guys we're talking about Polygamist Mafia.
Anything anyone sees trouble with. For the record of three games, town has won 2 and scum 1.
It's essentially Lovers doubled. A 4 man scum team may be a bit too easy for the town to notice. A possible "fix" would be reducing the scum team to 3. But on the other hand a 4 player voting block is much more powerful than a 3. It also makes end game come a lynch earlier, which significantly changes the EV.
Essentially I don't such much point in altering it. So it's either approve or disprove from what I can tell.
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Post #295 (isolation #56) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:40 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Ether wrote:I think I'm missing something with Shaft.ed's 3-person scumgroup. If each townie has a lover, then a mass loverclaim breaks the game; if the townies are all independent, then they get many extra lynches.
Yeah it was a stupid typing without thinking moment.
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Post #297 (isolation #57) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 11:51 am
Postby shaft.ed »
Korts wrote:I'll more thoroughly consider Polygamist tomorrow, but Ether's argument seems convincing--it's just Lovers with every player being replaced with a lover pair, and I don't see why this is a better way to go than simply allowing hydras in Lovers sign-ups.
Let me reiterate, we aren't looking for the best mafia game, we're looking for is the game balanced, and is it broken? Lovers Hydra would be yet another possible set up that can be added to the Discussion thread.
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Post #309 (isolation #58) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:48 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
Meh, thinking about it, I do think Polygamist is a different beast than Lovers. In Lovers, since only the mafia are lover paired, traditional "lover tells" are essentially scum tells. In Polygamist this is somewhat negated by making everyone a lover pair, thus "lover tells" can be demonstrated by scum and town alike.
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Post #312 (isolation #59) » Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:55 pm
Postby shaft.ed »
Adel wrote:IIRC, in 3/3 polygamist games everyone claimed pretty early day 1, but arguing about whether or not to massclaim gets day 1 going and ends the random stage quickly.
well if it's going on that frequently would it be considered a breaking strategy?