Mini 735 - Bad Times In Kuribonia- Game over!

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/confirm

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vote: tovarish

because I had to replace him once.

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sorry, the other games have been more interesting.

Time to remove my random vote.

unvote

Why does reecer have to claim?

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For the record, Reeser's evasiveness is extremely scummy and I support a lynch. I'm not going to vote at this time to avoid a quick lynch, so

FOS: Reeser

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Oh come on. There's only one town role that could know he was innocent. The fact that you're not claiming mason right now has drawn my vote. (Note that this only puts him at L-2)

vote: Reecer6

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That's your defense? Wow, you're no better than reecer, just asking us not to lynch him on trust. And how am I scummy again?

You've gone from picking on Kieran, to picking on reccer, to picking on me. I get the feeling you just want somebody lynched, and you don't bloody care who. You tell me why that's not scummy.

This is exactly what we should be doing on day 1. Putting people on various people and seeing how they and other react. Sticking on one person early on the game is unhelpful to the town. Even if they are obvscum, there are still others out there. This is not to say that jumping on every possible wagon isn't suspicious, just that being suspicious of multiple people is a good thing. Furthermore attacking someone for being scummy is not picking on them.

FOS: Prof. Guppy

As to the "thinking" v "knowing" point. The only "role reveal" that gives any information without going to night and is pro-town is a mason. (Or am I missing a role that could come up in a normal?)

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I suspect TOVARISH a little less now though he does seem rather lynch happy. He does seem to be an aggressive player but I have no problem with that. I will maintain an eye of him. Im not sure if he is lynch happy mafia or trigger happy tonwnie, however I think Lynch 1 amd day 2 will reveal that.

It's not trigger happy if you're not actually lynching people.

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MonkeyMan, you're continually confusing voting for with lynching. No one is saying that putting pressure on Reecer was a bad idea, but you hammered after someone specifically asked you to wait.

You seem to be saying that you didn't want the town talking itself out of a lynch. That would have been a good thing. (But only in hindsight) More importantly, we would have more information to work with.

I also don't like your evaluation of what happened overnight. I didn't and still don't see anything that would have caused a vig to go after 12.

vote: MonkeyMan

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No, but hammering a claimed cop after someone specifically asks you not to is very suspicious.

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Mod, could you prod houseofcards?

I just saw that he's being replaced in another game while browsing the replacement thread.

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And Monkeyman? as vague as you can be (as it is your night action) but was the action/result positive or negative?

Holy role fishing batman! Not all night actors know the results of their actions. Barring a kill not happening, the only roles that would know this are investigative ones.

FOS: Kieraen

Monkeyman, I'm really confused why you answered the question when you're not revealing your role. I can see a couple reasons for your target claim, but not any for giving more information.

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I count 4 votes on MonkeyMan and 1 on houseofcards. 9 players, so it takes 5 to lynch.

So MM is at L-1. It is way too early to think about a lynch today, so

unvote

.

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Is an OMGUS vote supposed to make you look more town?

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The more I think about it, the more I dislike MM revealing the fact that he targeted ting. It seems pretty unlikely that you were afraid of being speed lynched and needed to preserve information.

It must, therefore, have been to attack ting or defend him. I think he's trying to rely on other players assuming that he's too useful to be lynched while avoiding the risk of a counterclaim.

Since MM is my prime target due to his insufficiently justified hammer yesterday, I want a claim.

MM, if you don't claim I will re-vote you.

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And Monkeyman? as vague as you can be (as it is your night action) but was the action/result positive or negative?

I actually didn't get a pm back from the mod. I guess I'll have to find out night 2 if there was a reason for that or not.

I wouldn't expect a pm from roleblocking, but that certainly doesn't make the above statement a lie. I'll believe your claim for now.

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vote: Prof Guppy

"I just don't like this town power role, so let's lynch the guy who claimed it."

Giving up on arguments without an explanation = scum trying to change the subject.

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I will never admit to being scum. You will have to prove it.

That seems to imply that you're scum...

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kay. plz die now.

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I'm fairly sure the kill was by a sk who helped us out accidentally. 12 didn't receive a single vote on day 1, and MonkeyMan was clearly the scummiest person coming out of day 1.

I don't buy a scum power role hammering so quickly on day 1. [/wifom] At the moment Prof. Guppy is scummier than Monkey Man to me. His wagon is where the pressure belongs given his unwillingness to defend himself.

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Why does RB = no doctor? Is that just based on your experience in other games YThill or is there some structural reason for it?

It's pretty clear that MM expects to be doc-protected (if he is telling the truth) because that's the reason he gave for his claim. A faulty assumption about the doc's existence doesn't necessarily point to scum.

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I really don't like how MM has handled himself in response to YTHill's accusations. He's played dumb to a couple of obvious points ("what/when is 12-scum) and has responded to detailed arguments with near-empty one-liners.

I want a detailed explanation of MM's contradictory posts or I will return my vote to him. Scum not fully remembering their previous posts is one of the key slips that allows us to catch them.

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2 posts without the detailed explanation. Let me be clear. YThill pointed out an explicit contradiction in MM's statement. MM, you need to explain how that happened beyond just forgetting what you said before. There needs to be a reason you changed your position besides being opportunistic.

Until then,

unvote, vote MonkeyMan

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Looks like we have a pro-town killer, at least.

WIFOM much Kieran? I find it hard to believe that MM actually forgot that a scum was killed on night one given the fact that he noticed it in the first place. A deliberate slip is also possible.

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MM, you still haven't explained your reasons behind the two inconsistent statements. What changed in the game/your thinking that made you contradict your prior statement.

Guppy's refusal to defend is hella scummy.

At the same time, I really doubt they are on the same team. I'm not seeing one effectively bus the other. Sk and scum?

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No, you said that you forgot to check the thread for your previous posts. It shouldn't be an effort to stay consistent if you are town.

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Well, the scum saved us having to worry about mislynching Guppy today. I urge everyone to be careful with their votes today. If we have two remaining mafia (which is very possible in this setup) and a sk then we only have three townies left. Anti-town forces only need 1 townie to vote with them. One theory question, is this a situation where a no-lynch makes sense? I know having an even number of townies can point to that solution.

We need to hear from q21 and houseofcards today. QoH and HoC have been way too quite for where we are now. With guppy gone, they are at the top of my list.

I'll note that the only player who is likely to be town right now is ting because of MM's targeting. That means that ting did not send in a kill.

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What's even worse about HoC lurking is that he is now V/LA through thursday or friday. I almost wonder if he's trying to stay out of sight until the town finds the target. Given the fact that he was such an obvious target after the death of Guppy, he should have found more to say than a quick "I'm leaving notice."

I really suck at reading YThill from my limited experience with him. I thought he put together a solid case against MM which is, at this point a fairly useless tell. Either he was town with a valid suspicion or scum trying to kill a power role.

Assuming that ting is town (as he was roleblocked without blocking a kill) I'm left with 4 players, 3 of which are probably scum. BUT we can only lynch a mafia today, not the sk. I really don't have a strong sense of how to differentiate mafia from the sk besides looking for collaboration/distancing.

I think I support a mass claim. I don't think town has anything to lose and we're at a point where a mislynch would be deadly.

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I was also available every night.

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Vanilla Townie.

GO GO Ting!

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I'm just posting to note that I was gone for the last three days - the hotel I was at didn't have free internet. I'll re-read as soon as I get the chance and post.

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I had thought that Ting being roleblocked made him more likely to be town, but I'm starting to rethink that. In fact, Ting being roleblocked makes him a better lynch candidate than most. He's the only player guaranteed not to be the sk. Furthermore, his vote was fairly scummy on day 1 giving the mafia a good reason to send in the kill with someone else. (Question: would 12's kill have gone through even if he was nk'd.) I need to take a closer look at Ythill's case but I have definitely changed my mind about the rb increasing his chance of being town.

On another note, while I am wary of just lynching a lurker today, HOC's brand of lurking has been fairly scummy. He needs to post or he will become the default lynch. More posts will clarify his status and avoid the risk of scum finding a lazy townie as an easy target.

Lastly, kieran's slips and misstatements are approaching a suspicious number. I'm also curious about how schizophrenic his play was leading up to MM's lynch. Take a look at his iso posts 40-50 and see him go back and forth wildly on MM's guilt. (Declaring him to so guilty that he was Kieran's top two suspects* followed by declaring that he was proven to be innocent.)

*

This is poor. I have voted an put my thoughts, as have TING, and MONKEYMAN and to a lesser degree MONKEYMAN. Where are the other players?

oh i see, oops yes i meant to put prof guppy instead of the second monkeyman. lol i was thiniing about how guilty hé is.

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Perhaps, but several significant typos warrants a closer look.

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Ythill, I'll review 12's interactions with kieran and see what I think. I do not like treating someone as cleared because of scum play, but it certainly should affect the relative probabilities.

Ting, I think YThill makes a valid point about your ignoring the first request not to hammer. I need to go back through and get a sense of what happened between 161 and 181.

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YThill, could we have a tldr summary? I've read your posts but I'm not sure I'm getting what points you are trying to make.

You've made a point that Ting's vote in 181 after Tov's request in 161 is inconsistent with principles that he's expressed elsewhere. Ting has responded that the especially scummy play of reeser caused this behavior. I'm sure that there was way more than that in those huge posts, but I didn't see anything else particularly significant.

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Kierean, he did say he'd post tomorrow morning. If he hasn't posted by then, I'm in favor of voting him, but why vote right now?

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Now that I look at the time stamp, I think you were probably right. It looks like he posted around 11 p.m. last night his time. I got thrown off because his post was today, my time.

My bad.

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I'm fine with a HOC lynch at this point. Repeated promises to post content are crazy scummy.

vote: House of Cards

post or die.

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HOC has been using delaying tactics for over a month. If he was going to flake, he'd be gone already.

It's looking like we've avoided an insta-loss (which could only result from there being two mafia and HOC being the sk). I think the votes on HOC are the only way we're going to get anything out of him. We simply can't tolerate the risk of leaving such a hard core lurker alone any longer.

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Two scum and HoC being town is also an insta-loss...

Nope, sk could still hit mafia.
Cross kill means 2 townies, 1 mafia (LYLO)
Two townies killed means 2 mafia, 1 sk (mafia win).
1 mafia, 1 town killed means 1 mafia, 1 townie, 1 sk
1 sk, 1 town killed means 2 mafia, 1 town (mafia win)

Kieran, if you don't think HoC is the best lynch right now then why are you voting for him?

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unvote

@Kieran, your math is quite misleading as the probabilities of the various outcomes are not equal.

I think we've gained a lot of information from letting HoC hang in the breeze.
The key lesson is:

There is no mafia member not voting who is willing to vote for HoC.

This could mean several things.
1) HoC is mafia
2) There is only one mafia member
3) The mafia is limited to Kieran and/or me.

We've also learned that HoC is just not going to respond.

Mod, could you prod HoC?

[/u]

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Qwints I don't think I understand this double negative. Can you clarify:

There is no mafia member not voting who is willing to vote for HoC.

If there exists a mafia player who has not voted.
(i.e. if anyone besides you and I are mafia)
They are not willing to vote for HoC.

For me, this means this means that if there are two scum, HoC is one of them.

@YThill, what possibility did I leave out?

There are only three reasons mafia wouldn't have hammered HoC
1) He is mafia. (self-explantatory)
2) Hammering him doesn't lead to an insta-win (if only one mafia)
3) They haven't had the opportunity to (if they are already voting for him)

Note that these are not exclusive, e.g. 1 and 3 could both be true. You seem to be claiming that mafia might choose not to hammer in order to confirm themselves as town by having had an opportunity to go for a chance to win. BUT WE WOULDN'T KNOW that they had had that opportunity. We can't know that there are two mafia unless we lynch one today and have two kills that night or have a dead mafia and dead sk without the game ending. We wouldn't know that HoC wasn't mafia until he was killed.

There's probably only one day left*. So the scum would have to be confirmed by tomorrow. But that would require a lynched mafia and a nk'd HoC. Mafia would risk a loss resulting from a successful nk by the sk. Best case scenario (for mafia) sk kills HoC and mafia kills sk. That leaves the remaining mafia alive with two townies.

HMMMMMMM.

I'm leaving my thought process up because I spent a fair amount of time on it, but I'm now inclined to admit that you've made a good point YThill. Because hammering a townie is not an insta-win, 2 mafia might choose not to hammer HoC in order to "confirm" themselves as town. Thus, to answer my own question, the fourth possibility is scum not hammering in order to appear town.

*We might have more than one day left if we take away a nk tonight, (which can only safely happen if there is just one mafia).

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On a theory note,
the proper play for a townie in a known 1/1/1 situation is to vote no lynch and promise to vote for any player that votes for a lynch. This forces a no lynch because the scum lose if they try and avoid it. That night, the scum are basically faced with a prisoners dilemma: shooting each other means they both lost. Both shooting the townie ends in a tie. BUT, one shooting the townie and the other shooting scum means a win for whoever shoots at scum.

The actual resolution may vary depending on the mod's rules because 1 sk and 1 mafia alive is an unclear situation. In order for the townie to win, both players need to prefer 1) town winning to the other scum winning and 2)being the only player left alive to both scum being alive.

[mrow]Payoff Matrix[col]Kill Sk[col]Kill townKill Mafia[col](L,L)[col](W,L)Kill town [col](L,W)[col](?,?)

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We need responses from Ting and HoC before we can go on.

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The way I see it, we have three choices right now:

1. Lynch HoC (the unhammered flaker)
2. Lynch Ting (the scummy flaker)
3. Wait for replacements

YThill, I understand the desire to lynch rather than replace right now. As I've already indicated, I am not currently opposed to a ting lynch. However, this game is only 21 pages so 2 replacements are a real possibility. Furthermore, Kuribo has not yet announced that ting is even being replaced.

If we don't see any more action for the next couple of days, I'll be very tempted to vote for either Ting or HoC again.

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hmm. I was willing to vote a litle while ago. I too am enjoying the game. But for now I'll wait on that vote. I think the most important thing to have now is consensus.

Kieran, you're still voting House of Cards. Are you talking about ting in this post?

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I just realized that we need votes from every active player in order to lynch. Given the recent posts, it's pretty clear that we are willing to lynch ting.
Therefore,

vote:ting

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Link to the quicktopic: http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/Q5s5GXYtaFpL.

Props to idiotking for coming in and spotting the sk.

I thought I was screwed once it was pointed out that 12 was the only player to attack me on day 1. Tovarish was pretty much a random kill - i was worried MM might get protected. Qanqan was my attempt at killing based on activity level and his being persuaded to lynch MM. GG all!

Kieran, were you shooting for scum when you shot at 12? I assume you were with Guppy and YThill.

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Good game though. HoC was not so sneaky, but you played very clean, qwints. You had me completely fooled. I had second thoughts when you seemed so eager to lynch Ting but it was too late before I could post them. Good thing for you q21 hammered when he did, because I was coming in to unvote when I saw Ting's reveal.

Thank you. The reason I pushed for a ting lynch was because I sensed the town getting frustrated at two players going inactive and I thought my earlier attack on HoC (who I assumed would be the sk's kill) would help confirm me as just another impatient townie.

Honestly, I'm kind of surprised no town jumped on the HoC wagon. I thought it was patently obvious he was scum (though I was, of course, biased.) My only hope was that a townie would point out that he was just too likely to be sk.