Mini 735 - Bad Times In Kuribonia- Game over!

[qwints]

MM, you still haven't explained your reasons behind the two inconsistent statements. What changed in the game/your thinking that made you contradict your prior statement.

Guppy's refusal to defend is hella scummy.

At the same time, I really doubt they are on the same team. I'm not seeing one effectively bus the other. Sk and scum?

[MonkeyMan576]

MM, you still haven't explained your reasons behind the two inconsistent statements.

I already was interrogated regarding that, and I believe I answered the questions geniounly and effectively.

[qwints]

No, you said that you forgot to check the thread for your previous posts. It shouldn't be an effort to stay consistent if you are town.

[MonkeyMan576]

No, you said that you forgot to check the thread for your previous posts. It shouldn't be an effort to stay consistent if you are town.

I'm not going through this again.

[Qanqan]

Though I do have a big FOS on MonkeyMan, Ythill, I'm not to sure about some of your logic. Firstly, you were pretty quick to jump to the conclusion MonkeyMan must be lying and being dishonest, and seem to be voting with the idea that all town in this game will always be infallible, never make errors in judgement, always look at issues in the same dimension and devote 100% to this game to ensure no accidental contradictions, and as a result MM must be scum. I don't disagree he seems suspicious, but I don't know... just seems a little... audacious maybe.

(2) You seem to think that power roles should all reveal their results on D2. Is this a fair observation?[snip]

I don't see how you specifically came to this conclusion, that he was suggesting this.

Stop strawmanning. Why do you assume you'll be alive tomorrow?

I don't fully understand the point that you were making before that assuming you will be alive is somehow scummy.

QoH is an alt, and scum, and needs to die... but I guess we can wait for her to be replaced in case I am wrong.

I don't understand this at all...

And... you say at 306

I replaced in with a five-point accusation against you.

You ignored four of the points, cherry-picked one

, and posted a defense that sounded dishonest. I pointed out why it sounded dishonest and showed how your PoV was indicitive of a scum alignment. You ignored the first part, trying to pretend that I was twisting your words, and you played dumb in response to the second part.

and then at 313

I could argue your other points as well and probably will eventually but, for now, I'm going to let brievity add more weight to your lie.

You cherry-pick one point, and then don't answer it. Somewhat contradictory.

(and just for the record,

FOS: MonkeyMan576

, I would vote him, but I don't feel comfortable putting him at L-1... not yet, anyway.)

[Ythill]

@Qan: Thanks for questioning me. Nothing like a good double-checking to help avoid the mislynch.

...you were pretty quick to jump to the conclusion MonkeyMan must be lying and being dishonest...

At least two out of we nine are guarenteed to be operating under dishonest motives. Is it really jumping to conclusions to believe that MM is one of them? I suspected him, he seemed even shiftier when answering my accusations, and then was caught in a lie. Case closed, IMO.

...and seem to be voting with the idea that all town in this game will always be infallible, never make errors in judgement, always look at issues in the same dimension and devote 100% to this game to ensure no accidental contradictions, and as a result MM must be scum.

Your statement is a gigantic strawman. One quick look at my meta will show that I've looked past other players' errors in judgement and made some of my own. I simply don't believe MM in this case.

I don't disagree he seems suspicious, but I don't know... just seems a little... audacious maybe.

Yeah, that's probably a good word to describe me. Ting (and maybe qwints) can confirm how audacious I am. You'll get used to it.

(2) You seem to think that power roles should all reveal their results on D2. Is this a fair observation?[snip]

I don't see how you specifically came to this conclusion, that he was suggesting this.

#194: "I want to see what night action results there are before committing a vote."
#207: "Could we have had more information, possibly, but more than likely it would have been more of what we already knew,

and this way we have night action results to work with(if people speak up)

, and we don't have reecer to deal with." (bold added for emphasis)

I don't fully understand the point that you were making before that assuming you will be alive is somehow scummy.

Imagine being the only outed town power in a game with two NKs. Would you be confidant that you'd live through the night? Whereas if you were scum, you know there's a pretty good chance you're not going to be killed.

But there's more. For this explanation, let’s come up with an arbitrary “likely to die” scale of 1-10 where 10 is the obv-kill. A bland, unconfirmed townie with no breadcrumbs blending in on D1 is a 5 on this scale.

At the end of D1, in #188 MM had just dropped a quick hammer on a claimed cop after someone had asked him not to. I’d say that moves him down a few points on the scale, wouldn’t you? Let’s put him at a 3. Yet he says, "I'll explain tomorrow. If I'm alive."

Now let’s look at his statement today, where he’s threatening future suspicion. Here we have him post claim, revealing a role that makes a doc less likely in the setup, and leading the lynch on “obv-scum.” Certainly not as high on the scale as a confirmed cop or doc, but I think we can safely put him somewhere around an 8. Which begs the question, why would someone be thinking they might die at a 3, but not even consider it at an 8?

The answer, I think, lies in another difference. In the first case, MM knew he was looking dirty, so he was trying to minimize that suspicion with his statement. In the latter case, he’d shrugged off the early day attacks and had successfully turned the spotlight onto someone else. He was feeling confidant and got sloppy. Makes sense, doesn’t it?

QoH is an alt, and scum, and needs to die... but I guess we can wait for her to be replaced in case I am wrong.

I don't understand this at all...

That conclusion is based on a scant amount of evidence, so don’t expect me to stand by it until the bitter end, but I’ll explain my train of thought so you can sniff it for ulterior motives…

Like you, QoH has a very low post count. This means that she is either new to the site or is an alt. New players tend to exhibit strong curiosity, hyper-activity (like a kid with a new toy), and/or unfamiliarity with the finer points of the game. QoH doesn’t exhibit these things. In fact, #100 demonstrates casual familiarity with the game. Hence the first conclusion, QoH is an alt.

The second flows from the first. If QoH is an alt, we can expect better than n00b play from her. Interesting than, that she’s lurked pretty much exclusively except for #100, in which she jumped in to level a solid attack and vote against the un-claimed cop shortly after he dropped his first breadcrumb in #86.

And... you say at 306

I replaced in with a five-point accusation against you.

You ignored four of the points, cherry-picked one

, and posted a defense that sounded dishonest. I pointed out why it sounded dishonest and showed how your PoV was indicitive of a scum alignment. You ignored the first part, trying to pretend that I was twisting your words, and you played dumb in response to the second part.

and then at 313

I could argue your other points as well and probably will eventually but, for now, I'm going to let brievity add more weight to your lie.

You cherry-pick one point, and then don't answer it. Somewhat contradictory.

Not at all contradictory. If you look back at #312 (to which #313 was my reply), you will note that I haven’t revisited the points refuted by MM in that post. I let his arguments stand, which is more like giving ground than cherry-picking. If need be, I may go back later and continue to argue those points (which I said in #313), but I thought it more efficient to focus on the blatant contradiction I’d elicited from him.

MM’s cherry-picking was a different animal altogether. He replied to a five point accusation by addressing one point and then, when I countered, he tried to deflect suspicion back on me. And it wasn’t the only time. You’ll note that qwints, as well, has called MM out for his slippery way of arguing.

[Qanqan]

Most of that is sound enough, but that last part still doesn't suffice for me. Saying 'I may go back later' to me translates to 'I hadn't even considered going back and arguing aginst those points, but should probably say I had planned to...' , and 'giving ground' doesn't do it for me either, it doesn't justify not giving a retort. Oh, and you did the same sort of thing at post 304, instead of a retort, you let MM's statements 'hang there'... By itself I wouldn't call that explanation scummy, but it is a little slippery.

Anywho,

Vote: MonkeyMan576

, for the whole suspicious thing.

[Prof. Guppy]

Why didn't you vote for MM in #332?

I thought about voting for him, but I hesitated. There was still a part of me that thought he might be telling the truth. I didn't want a sneaky Mafioso to hammer our roleblocker on the off chance I was wrong.

I don't think I'm wrong, though. I still think Monkey is scum. He's at L-1, so I have a promise I have to keep.

STOP! Hammah time!

Vote: MonkeyMan576

[kuribo]

Day 2 Votecount 4: Hello my Ragtime Gal!

Houseofcards- 1 (ting)
MonkeyMan576- 5 (Kieraen, Ythill, qwints, Qanqan, Prof. Guppy)
Guppy- 2 (Monkeyman, houseofcards)

With

9

alive, it's

5

to lynch!

The town gathered around MonkeyMan with menace in their eyes. As the final votes were cast, he continued to protest. "But, I'm a Roleblocker," he said. "I'm on you guys' side," He swore. They laughed. Oh, how they laughed. And when they finished laughing, they strung him up from the tree that had ended Reecer's life. In the end, with MonkeyMan having shuffled loose the mortal coil, there was but one thing left to do. As the sun began to set, the town searched MonkeyMan's pockets. They found some Legos with, "Die, Scum!" written upon them. Clearly these Legos were for blocking roles. Get it? Blocks? Anyway, the point is, he's dead now, and he was a

Roleblocker.

MonkeyMan576,

Pro-town Roleblocker

has been lynched!

It is now Night 2. Anyone with Night Actions has 72 hours to send them to me. Also, I am still looking for a replacement for QueenofHearts.

[kuribo]

q21

replaces

QueenofHearts

effective immediately.

[kuribo]

As the town cowers in its bed during the night, the silence is broken by a the sound of sobbing, followed by voices. "Put your mouth on the curb! Put it on the curb! Now say goodnight!" This is followed by a sickening crack.

The next morning, the town investigates, and finds that

Qanqan

has been curbstomped. As the townspeople look under his clothing, they find his "I love The Town" t-shirt underneath his pajamas. He was a

Vanilla Townie.

The town busily mourns the loss of Qanqan, but they quickly realize that he's not the only one missing. Rushing to the home of

Prof. Guppy

, they find that he has been stuffed into his own refrigerator. And did I mention he was dead? Yes, yes, he was. The town looks through his home to try and gain some information about his alignment. That information comes quickly when they find his subscription to Townies Monthly. He was a

Vanilla Townie.

So, to reiterate:

Qanqan, Vanilla Townie, has been killed.
Prof. Guppy, Vanilla Townie, has been killed

It is now Day 3. With

6

alive, it's

4

to lynch!

[Qanqan]

bah...

I guess town still has a chance.

[qwints]

Well, the scum saved us having to worry about mislynching Guppy today. I urge everyone to be careful with their votes today. If we have two remaining mafia (which is very possible in this setup) and a sk then we only have three townies left. Anti-town forces only need 1 townie to vote with them. One theory question, is this a situation where a no-lynch makes sense? I know having an even number of townies can point to that solution.

We need to hear from q21 and houseofcards today. QoH and HoC have been way too quite for where we are now. With guppy gone, they are at the top of my list.

I'll note that the only player who is likely to be town right now is ting because of MM's targeting. That means that ting did not send in a kill.

[Ythill]

Well, the scum saved us having to worry about mislynching Guppy today.

And Qanqan. That jump on the wagon yesterday had him at the top of my list. Either the second kill is vig, or the scum were aiming for each other.

I agree about the care-with-vote thing. And now I have to rethink this whole game...

[q21]

I'm here, just busy now. I'll post something when I get home, or early tomorrow. Depends on how crazy my class this afternoon is.

[Prof. Guppy]

Dammit! And I even breadcrumbed my role. I was going to whip it out and become unlynchable. Well, I guess it's better for the game that I'm out of the way. [/dies]

[ting =)]

Oh, come on. I was gone 2 days and you guys lynched someone?

Rereading now.

[houseofcards]

ok, im going V/LA in about an hour, so i might be on if the place im going has a library.......... srry for extremely short notice, if they dont have a computer ill be back in 3 or 4 days not sure yet. bye!!!!!!!!

[Ythill]

On the wagon: Kier, me, qwints
Off the wagon: ting, Hoc, QoH

Kier seems most suspicious on the wagon, though that is PoE. I don't recall Kier being very scummy. One problem is, the case against MM was compelling so it will be hard to find scum on there.

QoH/q12 is currently on top of my list, but I haven't done any rereading yet.

If we have three scum left (2:1:3) we're in some danger but scum would still have to hit scum to end the game. If we have two scum and a vig (2:4) we're at MYLO, barring a very good N3 vig kill. Having two unaligned scum (1:1:4) is our best chance but I still don't like the odds. Mass claim could uncover the secondary killer and tell us where we stand. Opinions?

[q21]

QoH/q12 is currently on top of my list, but I haven't done any rereading yet.

And how exactly do you get to this from a whole 4 posts? Flaking and scum aren't the same thing.

If there is a serial-killer I'm reckon its Ythill. This line of his first post is a loto f the reason why:

Could each of you state, with or without reasons, whether you think the secondary killer is protown or not? I think it's a SK.

Basically trying to judge the current climate of the town with regards to his own role is how this reads to me.
Lynching a SK at this point would, however, lose us the game, therefore I have no intention of voting for him today.

Personally I'm going to call both ting =) and Kieraen town. On day one they both have instances of using what they viewed as the fact that Reecer was scum. In Kier's case as defence and in ting's case as basis for working out the rest of the scum group.

Moving forward from the assumption that Reecer is scum is something no scum would do as they knew that he was town. Not voting for ting or Kier today either.

That leaves qwints and HoC. There may only be one scum in which case I would go for HoC.

1. He's never made any attempt to play pro-actively.
2. He sat on the Torv/Kier fence and even his reason for this agreeing with someone else (qwints).
3. He's basically active lurked his way through the whole game so far.
4. His L-1 vote for MM was extremely opportunistic. Add this to the fact that even after he conceded that MM shouldn't be lynched he left his vote there.

I realise that its early on a day that may well be LyLo and as such won't place a vote yet. However, at this point I'm pretty much set on voting houseofcards.

[Kieraen]

Ythill. I would imagine mass claim would go something like this today.

Player 1: Vanilla Townie
Player 2: Vanilla Townie
Player 3: Vanilla Townie
Player 4: Vanilla Townie
Player 5: Vanilla Townie
Player 6: Vanilla Townie

I don't see any harm in that, and it might bring up a suprise or two, but with a likely no doctor (due to MM's Roleblocker claim, Unlikely we have to protective roles), and the likelyhood that we have a seriel killer I see it being an exercise in futility.

However the problem is that if we do have a vigilante, and he claims then the mafias focus will be on him, and town likely lose.

If we two mafia groups, then likely we have no results.

And if there is a seriel killer, then they won't claim either as mafia will want to kill him first.

I would say yes to a Mass Roleclaim, but I don't think it will provide us with any information. Only reads by peoples responses.

[Ythill]

QoH/q12 is currently on top of my list, but I haven't done any rereading yet.

And how exactly do you get to this from a whole 4 posts?

I've already explained it...

QoH is an alt, and scum, and needs to die... but I guess we can wait for her to be replaced in case I am wrong.

I don't understand this at all...

That conclusion is based on a scant amount of evidence, so don’t expect me to stand by it until the bitter end, but I’ll explain my train of thought so you can sniff it for ulterior motives…

Like you, QoH has a very low post count. This means that she is either new to the site or is an alt. New players tend to exhibit strong curiosity, hyper-activity (like a kid with a new toy), and/or unfamiliarity with the finer points of the game. QoH doesn’t exhibit these things. In fact, #100 demonstrates casual familiarity with the game. Hence the first conclusion, QoH is an alt.

The second flows from the first. If QoH is an alt, we can expect better than n00b play from her. Interesting than, that she’s lurked pretty much exclusively except for #100, in which she jumped in to level a solid attack and vote against the un-claimed cop shortly after he dropped his first breadcrumb in #86.

If there is a serial-killer I'm reckon its Ythill. This line of his first post is a loto f the reason why:

Could each of you state, with or without reasons, whether you think the secondary killer is protown or not? I think it's a SK.

You give me shit for getting a read from four posts, yet you claim to get one from two lines of text? FTR, my reason for asking was simple: I was trying to learn the identity of the second killer, who would be more likley to state that the role was vig than SK.

[Ythill]

However the problem is that if we do have a vigilante, and he claims then the mafias focus will be on him, and town likely lose.

If we get a vig claim, we can't trust it but follwed by a good lynch, it will put the town in a better position because w/o a doc claim, the mafia will off the secondary killer for us. Assuming the 2nd NK hits town, that leaves us at a worse case scenario of 1:2 tomorrow for a tidy endgame.

Furthermore, an all vanilla massclaim will prove that the 2nd NK is SK, which would be nice to know.

I'm willing to go first on the popcorn or not. Still want to hear others' opinions before we decide.

[Ythill]

EBWOP: Furthermore, an all vanilla massclaim will prove that the 2nd NK is

SK

scum...

[Kieraen]

Perhaps it is a vigilante?
Prof Guppy was many peoples second choice suspect.

I still think it is probably SK though, the first day kill (12) was somewhat random.



Fortunetly (or rather unfortunetly for me ), the mafia and vig/SK has kindly killed two of the 5 lynchers last night and gives us a suspect list of three:
Myself, Ythill and Qwints.
I will read through Ythill, and Qwints game to see whats what. Obviously I am innocent

Two questions:
Who do you think mafia will be after tonight, townies or nightkiller?
Same question but for the town, who are we looking for tonight, townies or nightkiller?

The likelyhood is we end up with three dead by tomorrow (barring any double kills by mafia and SK/vig), one definite townie and one/two maybes. I think we need to have a good think about our intentions and who we are aiming for. If it is a SK tomorrow, that leaves us in an almost unwinnable position doesn't it?
But then if it is Vigilante, lynching him pretty much hands mafia the victory.

So what do we do?