Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[MacavityLock]

/confirmate

[MacavityLock]

Vote: Evilgorrilaz

. I like to /conform! You stole my opener!

[MacavityLock]

Vote: MacavityLock

. Hmm, I feel like I've heard that name before... >.>

That rings vaguely familiar too. Maybe I'm thinking Kevin McCallister from Home Alone?

No, Ceph is referring to a game he modded. Where I had my scum-win. Clearly, I am dangerous.

[MacavityLock]

I approve of Ceph's bandwagoning. Hey everybody, let's quicklynch!

[MacavityLock]

Does anyone really think that we were going to get quicklynch on page 3? Don't you think if we did, we'd have in-the-bag scum for day 2?

In fact, I think that people who don't see that are jumping on the easier Ceph-bandwagon. The first semi-suspicious thing that happens in this game, and you don't want to reason it through? Also, I'm not following on Gorillaz-scum at all. So, yeah, I'm going to

unvote

him.

FoS: StrangerCoug and MiteyMouse

. In fact,

Vote: MiteyMouse

. StrangerCoug at least is saying original things. MM is just following the trail SC is blazing.

[MacavityLock]

Wow, that's crazy awesome, Primate. Could you find a way to shrink those pictures so that the board doesn't blow up every time you post?

[MacavityLock]

Too expensive. /em is a grad student.

[MacavityLock]

I was once told that in the game of mafia, the second vote is really not what one should be looking at...the third however is bandwagonning and the third voter for Town is usually Scum. Because of this:

VOTE MacavityLock

I will admit that it did make me look a little harder at you seeing as that vote was on me!

I was once told that someone who doesn't actually answer someone's suspicions (even if they are only page 2 suspicions), calls himself Town, and then OMGUS-votes based on rather wide meta-style generalizations is pretty scummy himself.

Actually, I wasn't told that. I figured it out for myself.

[MacavityLock]

Touche my friend! I wasn't trying to follow someone else's coattails here...I was looking for reasoning for votes early on in the game. I always want reasoning on votes that are past the random vote stage...that's just the way that I play. SC and I were just here around the same time and thinking along the same lines.

Well, here's what I don't get:

I'm following you on it thus far on Cephir and EG.

I get the case on Ceph. I don't agree with it, but I get it. I don't understand at all any case on Gorillaz. Why did you find him scummy? Did SC even make a case for him, or did he just call him scummy? Did I just abuse some pronouns?

[MacavityLock]

I'm not really suspicious of EG now...but before we learned of the PR, he was a bit frustrating.

Yeah, their names are similar, but EG and Primate are different people.

[MacavityLock]

I didn't say Primate's voluntary PR is scummy, I said it was anti-town.

i.e. it doesn't give us info or help the town overall.

Personally, I think that Primate's being pretty clear with his posts. Sure, he's having some fun, and not being as informative as he could be, but I'm pretty well following what he's saying. How is his picture-posting anti-town?

[MacavityLock]

sorry, i don't consider /confirm,
vote: *blank*
in order to make it 2>1.

in the first two posts of the game with nothing else said as contributing.

If he can unvote and change his vote, etc. then good job.

i am voting him to pressure him to actually say something or unvote/vote. I didn't say he was scum but he is being stubborn, not helping and what is wrong with voting for someone who isn't scumhunting or contributing?

Corvuus

You do know that Primate's vote is now on SC, right? He moved his random vote when he called SC a convenience store robber. I'd expect a townie to be paying more attention to the guy he's voting for than Corvuus has.

FoS: Corvuss

.

[MacavityLock]

I've got a question for Primate. You seem pretty set on StrangerCoug being guilty do you have any extra info as part of Role that would give you this info? If not can you show us some quotes that have given you this high suspicion of Coug?

This. I think that the biggest part of what we're missing from Primate is analysis of why he thinks people are scummy/not scummy. If this is a real restriction, then Primate can:
a) Post numbers. (post 16)
b) Post letters. (post 165)
c) Post pictures with words in them. (posts 147, 161)
Therefore, no matter whether you have a PR or not, you can come up with a way to talk sanely to us. Start giving us analysis, or I'll stop giving you the benefit of the doubt.

[MacavityLock]

You know what, screw it. I'm done talking about Primate for now.

just to get discussion moving

Vote: Corvuus

I'm not sure I understand this. When you made this vote, it brought Corvuus up to two votes, which is barely any pressure. What discussion were you trying to bring us to? Why choose Corvuus and not someone else?

[MacavityLock]

I simply chose Corvuus because it was a random vote. There was no malicious intent intended. But I'm a little confused about Primate's Vendiagram. Does the fact I'm in a seperate bubble mean my allegiance is undecided?

You've posted 5 times to this thread, only 2 of which have

any

useful content. He doesn't have anything to go on, and neither do I. So, some questions: Has anyone done anything that you find questionable? Who do you find scummy?

[MacavityLock]

You know what, screw it. I'm done talking about Primate for now.

I'm not necessarily encouraging you to stay on this subject (because I'm getting sick of it as well) but I have a strong feeling that this is exactly what Primate is going for. His responses are increasingly ambiguous and do not answer questions as explicitly as he has shown he is capable of.

You're not wrong, but given what we know of this "PR", I think we should just start treating him like any other player. At this point, if he doesn't provide good/non-craplogic analysis (no matter what excuse), I will consider it scummy. And by analysis, I do mean something that anyone can understand. (The army-star patches, for example? I have no idea.)

[MacavityLock]

There's kind of a overriding theme of Corvuus's most recent couple of posts that I really don't like. It's typified by the following:

Primate has a ven diagram where he has you shown as 100% scum. Shouldn't you be angry? Shouldn't you fight back? Explain why you don't attack Primate's logic, his diagrams, etc. and why you don't think he is scum for what he is doing when you clearly think others are scum when they are doing virtually the equivalent.

Throughout his last post, Corvuus is jumping all over SC for not attacking Primate. There's kind of a powerful assumption here: Corvuus is basically saying he expects that if a townie is attacked then that townie must attack back. There are so many problems with this assumption that I'm kind of doubting that Corvuus has a townie mindset here.

My major problem with Corvuus's argument is this: Isn't it possible for a townie to attack another townie? If townie A attacks townie B, but townie B doesn't think townie A is scummy, why would townie B attack back? Sure, townie B might defend himself.

Which leads me to my second problem: Part of the problem with Primate right now is that he can't/won't provide logic behind his attack, he's not to giving reasoning behind his diagrams. So, how can somebody attack Primate for his logic and reasoning right now? If he feels that strongly right now, isn't it Primate's job to convince the town that SC is scum?

Like I said, the thing that's really getting me here is Corvuus's assumption that a townie who is attacked must automatically assume that the attacker is scum. That's just not true.

FoS: Corvuus

.

[MacavityLock]

I did find it kind of odd SC didn't try to defend himself from Primate's accusations. But I don't know if that's a sign of a passive scum or a passive townie.

What do you mean "accusations"? Hasn't it been established that Primate voted me without a reason?

Um, no. Just because he hasn't given a reason doesn't mean he doesn't have one. I would like to hear from Primate though.

[MacavityLock]

This is mainly a post to avoid prod. I have nothing new to add right now, other than to say that there's a lot of not-this-game talk going on, which I find distracting.

[MacavityLock]

You have nothing new to add? You could clarify what you think about Primate, SC, me, etc. instead of saying nothing. Go on record with an actual 'stance'.

Primate, as I said before, I will now treat like any other player. He hasn't posted a single thing since then. Nothing new to add.
SC, I mentioned early on as having suspicions of. He has not done anything to remove those suspicions. Nothing new to add.
You, I recently mentioned that your attacks of SC are full of flawed logic. I saw your explanations and wasn't particularly convinced. Nothing new to add.

I had done some quick skims of the game again, and found nothing more to say/ask, though I might have more time over the weekend. MiteyMouse, you, and SC are my top targets right now. I'm still waiting for Primate to say anything.

[MacavityLock]

MiteyMouse, you, and SC are my top targets right now.

What is your case on MiteyMouse?

Like I said, I called MiteyMouse out early for his blindly following you in your bad logic.

Did I say something wrong?

reeks of scum. Immediate OMGUS vote of me when I voted him. Everything else he's said has been distractions (Primate's PR discussion, discussion of his own PR), and not a single lick of scum-hunting.

No, I didn't say that. I just said it wasn't a tell.

I don't agree with this. He's being anti-town by withholding thoughts.

I didn't have much to add. I don't think my stuff with MM is new. How is it withholding thoughts if I really didn't have any thoughts to withhold?

[MacavityLock]

.....

we need Primate prodded or replaced.

As for 'withholding thoughts', it is anti-town because town isn't able to get a read on you to see if you are town or scum.

Anyone coasting through the game posting "I agree with this, I disagree with that, nothing much to add, just posting to avoid a prod" are all anti-town sentiments since it tells us nothing about the player who writes it.

You may disagree with my primate PR posts and such, but it is far better for town to have people talk/doing something out there that can be read and interpreted, and not just "I agree/disagree with Corvuus", "I don't get what is going on", etc.

Corvuus

OMG. This is totally ridiculous. Up until that "post to avoid prod" post, I think I've been doing pretty well. I wouldn't say that I'm the most prolific in this town, but I've been better than some people. At that point, I had no new thoughts, thus

I had no thoughts to withhold

. Re-read me and see if you think I'm more or less of a scum-hunter than the rest of the players.

You are way over-playing this point. Seriously, MM is still at the top of my scum-list, but you're 1A.

[MacavityLock]

I did not OMGUS vote for you....as I said when I placed it, the vote was for you being the third voter and it was not immediate. I know you think my question about if I said something wrong "reeks of Scum" but, you have a player simply post a rolling eyes smilie at something legimate that you said and let's see what you post as a response. Also I already defended myself against "blindly following"...I want reasoning when someone votes...not giving it or saying later is not helpful.

I gave my reasoning back when I voted for you on page 4. Would you like me to point out every scummy thing that you do while my vote is parked on you? Because I can try, depending on my schedule, if you like.

[MacavityLock]

I don't consider my vote was immediately after Macivity's vote....we will have to disagree on that one.

Does a vote have to come right after someone else's vote to be OMGUS?

[MacavityLock]

- Thirdly I don't like Cephrir's post about just replacing primate because he is anti-town. If he doesn't pick up his prod then he should be replaced.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by "I don't like" here?

[MacavityLock]

I don't consider my vote was immediately after Macivity's vote....we will have to disagree on that one.

Does a vote have to come right after someone else's vote to be OMGUS?

No, but usually a player X guilty of OMGUS against player Y votes after the latter.

Why did you answer this question? I wanted MM to answer, not you, and still do.

Either way, please explain. I'm not sure I get what you mean with "after the latter".

[MacavityLock]

If player X commits OMGUS against player Y, he or she generally votes after player Y. I used "the latter" to mean player Y as opposed to player X.

Not what I was asking, but thanks for playing!

MM, to clarify, why must a vote come

immediately

after a vote to be OMGUS?

SC, please do not answer for her.

[MacavityLock]

If player X commits OMGUS against player Y, he or she generally votes after player Y. I used "the latter" to mean player Y as opposed to player X.

Not what I was asking, but thanks for playing!

MM, to clarify, why must a vote come

immediately

after a vote to be OMGUS?

SC, please do not answer for her.

What you said previously was that I immediately OMGUS voted for you. So, there are two parts here...the immediate part and the OMGUS. I don't feel that I did OMGUS vote for you, I explained my reasoning when I posted the vote. It was also not immediate as there were several other posts between...one of which was by me so it was not even my first post after I got back...so not immediate either way. I have never said that an OMGUS vote has to be immediately after to be OMGUS....you put those words in my mouth....

OK, let's go through this again. I voted you. In your next post after this, you said "Un-random vote, I'm going to go re-read." 15 minutes later, you voted me with the reason that the 3rd vote is scummy. First of all, I don't think that's a good reason to vote for someone; I think you were coming up with an excuse. In addition, I'd consider those 2 posts as basically being one thought, so don't give me the excuse that it wasn't immediate because you interspersed it with a post specifically to unvote.

MiteyMouse, you, and SC are my top targets right now.

What is your case on MiteyMouse?

Like I said, I called MiteyMouse out early for his blindly following you in your bad logic.

Did I say something wrong?

reeks of scum. Immediate OMGUS vote of me when I voted him. Everything else he's said has been distractions (Primate's PR discussion, discussion of his own PR), and not a single lick of scum-hunting.

I did not OMGUS vote for you....as I said when I placed it, the vote was for you being the third voter and it was not immediate.

I do think we crossed wires here. I read your defense here as saying "It wasn't OMGUS because it wasn't immediate." But now re-reading I think it could be read as "I don't think I OMGUSed, and I don't think it was immediate." OK, sounds like I misinterpreted you here, for which I apologize.

Still, I'm not seeing any of this as a good defense, and my vote stands for now.

[MacavityLock]

Apothecary is just playing ultra-conservative (e.g. "I

think

that

perhaps

Corvuus is scummy")

Are you defending Apoc for some reason? Is ultra-conservative play a town-tell?

Not

townie

, just

townier

. I currently have him @ MotR.

Sorry, I don't think I know the term. MotR?

[MacavityLock]

Mainly.... hmm... and then I messed up.

Confused about what you mean here.

No, I think it's a glaring scum-tell and I am not defending him.

The was you said "just playing ultra-conservative" felt like defending.

Middle of the Road.

Thanks.

[MacavityLock]

I think it's time for Apoc to get some pressure.

Unvote. Vote: Apoc.

That most recent post is awful. Others have detailed their cases on you. You can't care enough to look up those reasons, to explain yourself, or to scumhunt.

[MacavityLock]

MM - just for the reason that SC came to her defense.

That's weird. You think a player is scummy because of another player's posts about them? Especially when we don't even know whether that player (SC in this case) is scum or not. Is there anything else that makes you think MM is scummy?

In other news, IGMEOY, but I'm coming around to Corvuus as over-aggresive town. His most recent posts have been much better.

I need to read up on Atlas. He's been getting a good amount of attention, and I can't say I have a strong opinion about him one way or the other.

Apoc, as far as I can see, your explanations of your actions don't make them any less scummy. At the very least, some scum-hunting by you might go a long way.

[MacavityLock]

ok to answer both Macavity and Elmo's questions about the weak reasoning against MM as being scummy. Others have built some evidence against her. That was just the one thing that stuck in my head that was off, and had happened recently.

I didn't want to come off as echoing others cases to much.

Is it just me, or does this read like "I'm manufacturing a case." to anybody else?

FoS: Zeppo

.

[MacavityLock]

That SC wagon looks better every minute.

I tend to agree with this. SC's jump onto and subsequently off of the Ythill non-wagon was really not townie-looking. Given the L-1, I think it is time to request a claim.

[MacavityLock]

My post got et by "over quota". Arg.

Upshot: I'm fine with avoiding an SC lynch today. If SC survives a night or two, I'm sure we can, but I'm not sure right now how to 100% deduce whether SC is lying or not without outing doc or another power role. Leave that discussion for tomorrow, depending on whether he's alive or not?

I should

Unvote Apoth

. He's been better as of late, but I'm going to keep an eye out for reversion to lurking.

I still kind of like an MM-wagon, but I'm not sure how SC-doc or SC-scum (as opposed to SC-complete unknown) would change that. I probably need to re-read before re-placing a vote somewhere.

[MacavityLock]

Alright then. I don't believe SC's claim. But I don't believe he's a scum either, but a townie hoping that the claim will shield him from the lynch.

WHAT? This is utter lose. What benefit would vanilla (or other town power) have to gain by avoiding a lynch by claiming doc? It would risk a doc counter-claim (bad for town), an auto-town lynch (aka Lynch all Liars, bad for town), and any number of consequences that would be antithetical to a townie's win condition.

FoS: Apoth

. I'm not excited to have anybody who thinks like this in a game. I'm not sure if a townie would think like this at all, though maybe that comes back to his semi-newb status. Apoth, if you're town, please don't go fake-claiming power to avoid a lynch. That's really bad mojo.

[MacavityLock]

After some thought, I'm going to upgrade my FoS to a

Vote: Apoth

. I'd very much like to hear your explanation of your belief that SC is townie fake-claiming. What causes you to think he's a townie as opposed to scum? What causes you to think that he's not doc? What would SC have to gain by townie fake-claiming?

[MacavityLock]

Minor correction:

Apoth, that doesn't answer

any of

the question

s

at all.

[MacavityLock]

Alright then. I personally believe he was just shielding himself from the pressure and decided that it was in his best interests to avoid an immediate lynch. Of course, that is also a defense for scum players, and now I see how that was a bit stupid to suggest that. I apologize, if that's what you want.

I'm still wondering what in his play made you think those things.

[MacavityLock]

Just to let everyone know, I'm away tomorrow, and probably on limited (though not that limited) access between then and the following Monday. I will certainly have time to contribute Tues-Sun, but I may not be as complete as I'd like.

I hate responding to this game. It's OK guys, you can admit that you aren't reading any of this. No need to say "I'll look into Ythill's case later" while returning with nothing a week later. (Oh who am I kidding, you know who you are. )

I admit it, you got me. I've been busy wrapping up work in time for my Thanksgiving vacation. Between that and the WoW between you two, I'm having a hard time going through all this. (I didn't know the term either, but it certainly applies in this case.) I'm going to try to dig in to this when I'm home, and I promise I'll get to it eventually.

I thought those things because I want to have, as I said before, an objective and pragmatic viewpoint. I suppose that clouded my judgement a bit.

So, to be sure, you're saying there is nothing specific that suggested to you that he was townie fake-claiming, as opposed to doc actual-claiming, or scum fake-claiming?

Cougar can you summarize your top suspects in one sentence?

Apothecary proposed the idea of vanilla faking doctor, and my suspicions of Ythill and Zeppo007 are minor anymore.

Sorry, I'm a bit confused here. "Minor anymore"?

[MacavityLock]

For the record, I am no longer voting Apoth because he thought that a townie would fake-claim. I am voting him because he can't answer why he thought that.

Attempting to protect a scum-buddy comes to mind, but that would be predicated on SC-scum.

[MacavityLock]

In addition, as far as I am aware, grasping at straws = straw man (but again, someone needs to correct me if I am wrong).

First of all, no. "Grasping at straws" means something to the effect of "this person is coming up with the flimsiest possible excuses to save him/herself." "Strawmanning" is the act of tearing down a case that looks very similar to your opponent's actual case, but that is not equivalent and far easier to attack.

OK, I went through the game again. (As much as I can while spending time at home.) Here's what jumped out at me:

My current top 3: Apoth, Zeppo, and MM are all powerfully useless, and this has been true since the beginning. Of the 3, I'd say Zeppo has been the more useful, but his suspicions were by far the weirdest (see again his "case" on MM). Jazz, you've got a bit to make up for. MM has been by far the most useless. Have you done any scumhunting that wasn't of the "You didn't explain this right away, therefore it is scummy" variety? As for Apoth, I'm pretty happy with my vote. Little analysis and rarely anything new to add. Also, I noticed this:

Well, on page 3 he [Cephrir] tried to pull a quicklynch on Evilgorrilaz (when he was playing), and when prompted to give a reason, he simply said "later".

This exact point was brought up by Zeppo on page 3, and was pretty well shot down as a good argument by page 4. I get the feeling that Apoth is barely paying attention to this game, and when he is, he's using arguments that are superficial at best.

Atlas-Ythill puts me to sleep. The fact that you're throwing post numbers in there as opposed to useful quotes makes it that much more impossible to read. However, as far as I can tell, Ythill is winning the argument: the "minimization" and the "false dilemma" points specifically feel like good craplogic callouts. But I don't think that Atlas is doing too bad of a job defending himself, and the whole argument is not putting Atlas near the top of my scumlist.

SC-Corvuus makes me want to strangle someone. SC is making nonsense arguments, responding to the wrong questions, and is at this point basically flailing. See "grasping at straws." But he's doc-claimed, so he's off-limits. Fine, we'll wait on him. Corvuus, why are you still attacking him so strongly? Why are you filling up our monitors with massive posts? I don't know if there's anyone left who doesn't think he's scummy. Why are you so adamant about making sure we know that you think he's scummy? What do you have to gain by this?

PS. This is my big post for the Thanksgiving break, don't expect anything of this magnitude until Tuesday at earliest.

[MacavityLock]

Now, I currently believe he is scum due to his attitude towards me and saying claiming "vanilla townie is suicide". This does seem a little scummy, as it made him look as if he was just claiming a power role to protect himself when it's pretty obvious he can't back it up.

I would like to quote the great Freddie Mercury: "Any way the wind blows, doesn't really matter, to me."

[MacavityLock]

OK, well, looks like I missed a bit on my travel day.

You know what I'm really surprised about? I'm still only on L-3. This probably means that both the scum have decided to vote me, and one overly exurberant townie is joining the party. Does that seem difficult to believe? Why don't we go one for five pages of needless crap debating if this is newb townie or a frakking scumtell? Sounds like one hell of a game to me!

SC already pointed out the "two scum" assumption possible scum-tell. I'm more interested why you think that scum are already on your wagon. Do you think that scum would automatically jump to a wagon if the opportunity arose? Would that wagon be yours in particular? Why?

I'm having a really hard time understanding the Ythill-Llama argument to be honest. I'm trying to boil this down as well as I can, and I'm getting the following:
1) Ythill thinks that Llama's case against him is framed just like Ythill's case against Atlas.
2) Llama really doesn't like the way Ythill moved off of his Atlas-wagon.
Am I right? Am I missing something? I'd like to have a more simplified summary before I comment.

I will say that I don't particularly like Ythills' posts against Elmo. This in particular rubs me the wrong way:

In what dialect is "we should probably lynch one of these two people today" wishy-washy?

The dialect where you say it by naming MM and SC as buddies, and weighing the identity of the third between me and Rx, and decide Rx

based on LF being either wrong or scummy (you were vague)

, and then concluding that we should hang MM or Rx.

Maybe you're just paranoid.

When I read Elmo's post, my interpretation was that his read of Llama was

incomplete

, and that he was neither wrong nor scummy.

#3 is liable to be.. Apoth or Ythill? I am not really too hot on LF's thing, but then I haven't really read it properly.

I have an unholy number of town reads at this point. Irritatingly. We should probably be lynching one of Apothecary or MiteyMouse, based on how Apoth responds and if MM ever starts doing stuff.

Ythill's putting words in Elmo's mouth, in addition to attempting to kick additional dirt against his current target, feels rather scummy to me.

Hey MM, mind commenting on anything more currently relevant?

Jazz, sorry to hear about that. Condolences.

[MacavityLock]

Still waiting for Llama's simplified summary before I comment.

Also:

@everybody including Mod

, please note my sig. I will be LA for what I hope is a very short amount of time.

Noted.

[MacavityLock]

I'm ecstatic with my Apoth vote right now. Ceph's right about the self-contradiction on reaction votes. The "No Lynch is better than townie lynch" argument is pretty awful. Choosing Yt and SC as his suspects is pretty much following the herd at this point.

My LA has really prevented me from doing a deep dive into Yt-Llama, even with the summaries. I'm really sorry about this. Unless a substantial wagon builds on either of them, I'll probably punt the issue until my computer gets better or Day 2, which ever comes first. I have high hopes for getting it fixed soon (next week?).

[MacavityLock]

I believe you're at L-1. Time to claim apothecary.

It's L-2, actually. Why the hurry?

It was (and still is) L-1, unless I'm miscounting. SC, ML, Corvuus, Yt, Qwintz voting with 6 to lynch.

I'm not going to claim a power role.

This is very strange to me. This might be semantics, but Apoth makes it sound like he has a choice in the matter. (Note the difference in connotation between "I'm not a power role." and "I'm not going to claim a power role.") Only scum really do have a choice in this situation, though given his earlier opinion of townie fake-claiming... Anyway, I would've hoped he learned his lesson on that by now. This is minor, I certainly wouldn't call this damning evidence, but it's not going to change my opinion of Apoth-scum.

Consider this an

FoV

because having people at L-1 makes me slightly nervous.

FoV? Is that a Finger of Voting? I'm not sure I get it.

[MacavityLock]

I do think that before we lynch we should have everyone mention their top 2 scum picks at least?

Why? What does this do other than give scum a better idea of who the most obvious townies are?

[MacavityLock]

I'm still interested to see the rest of Jazz's player notes.

Why have things gotten so quiet?

[MacavityLock]

This is a typical "active lurker" post by the way. He complains about inactivity without making any active contribution.

FOS:MacavityLock

Or I could just have lurked, like everyone else was doing.

Seriously though, the day's almost over, and I'm trying to figure out what's left to do.

[MacavityLock]

I asked for specific comments.

And I didn't?

I'm still interested to see the rest of Jazz's player notes.

[MacavityLock]

I suggest that the rest of you get Rx under 4 votes and join me on this one. Rx might be scum or he might be a bad townie. Atlas/qwints has played more carefully, but is, IMO, more likley to flip scum.

Bandwagons that don't start until this close to deadline are dangerous, and if we do end up lynching Apoth and he flips scum, I'll be looking very closely at you. Conversely, if Apoth flips town, I think that your points on qwintz and his presupposing Apoth-town aren't bad ones, and I'll be looking at him. Yay for day 2 targets!

By the way, I have finals all next week, and I've been studying, so I haven't been as on top of this game as I'd like to be. I'm happy with an Apoth lynch today, and it's highly unlikely that I'll either move my vote, or even check in much before deadline. Sorry about this.

[MacavityLock]

This isn't a good idea. You are you telling scum how to manipulate you if I am wrong about qwints but right about Rx. If you think my points "aren't bad" then how can you so off-handedly dismiss them to lynch a person they suggest is town?

Sorry to ask a question when you have declared LA. Someone else from the gallery may pick up where Mac left off if they share his views or wish to argue them for discussion.

No, you're probably right. I probably shouldn't have said anything specific as to my suspicions just yet, and I certainly will be looking closer all around come tomorrow. Honestly, this day has kind of lost steam for me, and I'm ready for us to move on.

I don't think your points about Apoth suggest that he's town, just that he might be less likely to be scum. Subtle difference, but it's there. All in all, I think it's a good day 1 bandwagon, no matter what.

[MacavityLock]

Mac, which wagon are you refering to now.

Um... yours. The one my vote is on.

[MacavityLock]

I go away for two finals and look what happens. I really don't like last minute wagons, though SC might have been a special case. The self-vote was a positive sign, so we'll see.

[MacavityLock]

So with one of my main suspects dead, I'm thinking its got to be Cephrir and MacavityLock.

Guh? Why me?

I'm thinking that Jazz needs to join the game, and I'd be up for bringing back the Apoth wagon. In fact, I see nothing that precludes Apoth-scum, so

Vote: Apoth

.

[MacavityLock]

I don't understand why Mafia would target Ythill... I think town considered him most likely to be lynched day 2.... so either there is a Vig/SK or Ythill's statement of "Sure, vote for me so I don't get NK'ed" made mafia think he was a power role (or maybe prior breadcrumbing) occurred... and that isn't even including other stuff...

I don't think this (Vig/SK stuff specifically) is a useful line of inquiry.

As for the Apoth/SC potential scum team, I'd say that Apoth's townie fake-claiming thing looks even worse in light of SC-scum.

[MacavityLock]

hm.

I would like to hear from Macavitylock about all of this. Especially since he is being painted as being tomorrow's potential lynch so he needs to speak up 'now'.

Corvuus

Yeah, I know. I've been busy. I promise a substantive post by Thursday.

Quick hits: I'm going to go through everything that Apoth has said again, but right now there's very little that strikes me as something that couldn't come from SC's scumbuddy, especially given that SC was a RB.

I'm very worried about OGML setting me up for tomorrow. As far as I can tell, he has nothing against me except for some links to Ceph, and we still don't know whether he's scum or not. So, unless you have some evidence against me OGML, you're making the same case against me that some people made against MM/you.

My feelings on Ceph: I was completely on board with pretty much all of his play yesterday until the end of the day, when he was so hesitant with his vote and all. I need to re-read him in light of SC-scum.

[MacavityLock]

OK, I've done a full re-read of Apoth, and looked into where SC talks with/about him, and I still think there's a good case against Apoth as SC's buddy, though I will admit it's not perfect. All post numbers are posts in iso.

I did find it kind of odd SC didn't try to defend himself from Primate's accusations. But I don't know if that's a sign of a passive scum or a passive townie.

Just the beginning of Apoth's incredible wishy-washiness towards SC.

Alright then. I don't believe SC's claim. But I don't believe he's a scum either, but a townie hoping that the claim will shield him from the lynch.

This has obviously been discussed to death, and it is clearly a newbie mistake, but in retrospect it reads just like newb-scum trying to save his buddy.

Alright then. I personally believe he was just shielding himself from the pressure and decided that it was in his best interests to avoid an immediate lynch. Of course, that is also a defense for scum players, and now I see how that was a bit stupid to suggest that. I apologize, if that's what you want.

Immediate backtrack when called out.

I simply changed my mind. Perhaps I felt a little differently for him on my third post on the matter. I felt a little pity for him, because I thought he might, just might, have actually been a townie. But perhaps I was right with my first idea.

Hey look, Apoth is being wishy-washy about SC. There are a bunch of others, and I'm not going to quote them all.

Personally I suspect:
...And Stranger Coug. He wanted people to believe that I was accusing him of Strawman arguments. And he claimed a power role on Day one. I'm not buying that. He also brought up Kokusho's gambit, which is a load of crap in a situation like this.

SC is Apoth's second of two suspects. This came well after the claim and the "decision" that SC was off-limits for yesterday. This seems like the right spot for scum to put his buddy on a suspicion list. (Also, note that Apoth's only other scum target in this post was Ythill-town.)

This is quite an astonishing turn of events, in the couple of days I've been gone. It appears that everyone seems to have been swung rather quickly over to SC's bandwagon. Why is this? He's claimed doctor, so we should be a little more careful about our lynch here.

Apoth trying a last ditch effort to save his buddy?

The only post of Apoth's that I think would counter my read of him as SC's buddy is this:

Personally, after reading through that post, I do believe that SC is scum. I don't want to basically reiterate what you've already said, as that seems a little pointless. You outline good arguements on everyone.

This was kind of early in the first SC wagon, so it does speak against busing. However, note that Apoth never voted for SC here, or ever. And Apoth was lazy yet again, relying on other people's arguments. Not that that's always a scum-tell, but it doesn't look great here. (I'm actually not sure whose post Apoth is referring to though, so I may have missed something.)

Now, on SC's posts:

Sorry I've been off for too long.
Are we past Random Voting, or are we working with tangible evidence?

We're past it now. A lot of the current cases have something or other to do with Primate.

First, a bit of coaching.

Apothecary's misrepresenting Cephrir (L-3 vote ≠ quicklynch vote) and his using my actions to make MiteyMouse suspicious make him my #3.

#3 seems like a good spot to put a scumbuddy. Also, Ceph was SC's #2 in this post. Kind of odd to be putting counter-acting arguments next to each other like that?

Now, it gets a bit tougher for my case, I admit. In SC's post 59, SC becomes the first vote on the Apoth-wagon, and SC rides him hard for the rest of the day. I'm not sure I've ever seen that harsh of a busing tactic before, so it definitely speaks against Apoth as SC's buddy.

However, given that SC was an RB and had made his Doc claim, isn't there a chance that he was hoping to get back in the town's good graces by giving up his buddy? Weird, I know, but everything on Apoth's side just seems so obvious to me. Also, check out another bit of coaching:

Apothecary, if I were you, I wouldn't be pessimistic about your impending death. You should be fighting back. See Mini 601 Day 3, where I pretty much gave up as town and ended up being the lynch that day.

I don't know, it's a tough one, and honestly I might be putting too much stock in my suspicions from yesterday. I think it's a pretty good case, though there are certainly flaws. My vote is going to stay for now, as I want to be sure to get a response from Apoth.

My re-read of Ceph isn't yet complete, so I'll do another post on that one, almost certainly later today.

[MacavityLock]

You know what? I don't think I want to do a massive post on Ceph. I did a quick re-read and decided that my opinions haven't really changed: I think there are scummier people than Ceph. I think OGML's case on him relies a lot on the assumption that Ceph is scum, i.e. he is scum therefore what he says is scummy. Cases are supposed to built the other way around.

I do have some questions about the end of yesterday for Ceph, though: Why did you wait so long to place a vote? And why did you park your vote on the MM-nonwagon? I know you said you were willing to go with the Apoth-wagon, but you didn't really put your money where you mouth is.

Over the rest of the holidays, I'll do a complete re-read (not focused on one specific player) and see if I come up with anything new. I get the feeling that there's probably scum somewhere in (OGML, qwintz, Jazz) and I want to find him/her.

[MacavityLock]

Just as a note, I've decided that there's no way OGML would have re-started the SC wagon immediately on replacement if he was SC's buddy. That would be an insane play for scum to make. So, yeah, I'm not thinking OGML-scum anymore, even though I don't like how/where he's leading the game today at all.

[MacavityLock]

@ML - Do you think Ceph is scum? If so why not as much as Apoc?

This is not always a simple yes or no question. I have Ceph as either 4th or 5th on my list right now. So, I guess if you need a black and white answer, then it's no.

The vote remaining on OGML is strange though.

[MacavityLock]

Qwints could be scum. The only possible explanations for Ythill's death are him being scum or the scum trying to frame him.

While I agree with the "Qwints could be scum" part of this, I strongly disagree with your interpretation of Ythill's NK. There are definitely other possibilities.

I had thought Macavity was very obvious town but now I'm wondering if he knows I'll be town, seeing as everyone else seems to think I'm horrifically scummy.

At this point, I get the feeling that whatever I do with respect to Ceph could be seen as scummy. If I stay off of his wagon and he flips scum, it's protecting a buddy. If I stay off and he flips town, it's because I knew. If I jump on and he's scum, it's a late bus. If I jump on and he's town, it's finishing off a mislynch. So, I'm sticking with my current read: He's 4th or 5th on my list. It wouldn't surprise me if he flips scum, but he's not one of my top choices. If you think that's scummy, so be it.

[MacavityLock]

Refutations:

ML comes off as scummy mostly due to two things, firstly the way he played the SC wagon during D1. I dont think was ever actually a part of the wagon vote wise, but there were comments (like his 33) that make me think otherwise. When the SC wagon came to a head near the end of the day, he stayed off it and continued to push the Apoc wagon which was the only other viable one. It seems like he made his mark on the SC wagon but chose not to cash in it.

You're correct that I was never on the SC wagon vote-wise. Early in the day, I had some suspicions, but he was never at the top of my list. Over the course of page 14, my suspicions spiked due to his voting and subsequent unvoting of Ythill. I also did not like 337 at all. He was then at L-1, so being on his wagon with a vote would have meant a hammer, which I was not willing to do at that point. He then claimed doc, and I backed off like everybody else did.

As for the late SC wagon, it occurred over the course of 1 RL day when I was not on-site due to finals. Seriously, feel free to check across every game I was in. You'll find no posts because I wasn't around. Sadly, I can't give any more proof than that.

Second would be the early push for Apoc today. I really dont see Apoc flipping scum after the strength that SC pushed for that lynch when there was a town wagon available in Ythill, and the MM wagon which both seemed to hold water. Also most of the posts from ML yesterday seemed to suggest a SC-MM pairing more then anything else, so trading MM for Apoc today when SC was proven scum looks wierd.

My Apoth suspicions, which were stronger than my MM suspicions, from day 1 remain. There was no trading of MM to Apoth involved. As I detailed in my long post, I don't see why SC-scum prevents Apoth from being his buddy, and I think that might be a dangerous assumption to make.

[MacavityLock]

My apologies, but I will be very LA from pretty much now until the 20th, and if you need to replace me so be it. I will be around to post tomorrow (Thurs), but after that, I can't guarantee much. I'd like to stick around though, if at all possible.

Noted.

[MacavityLock]

Apoth, what are your opinions of Ceph? What are your opinions of anyone for that matter?

[MacavityLock]

@ML - Can you explain why interactions between SC and other players apart from Apoc make Apoc scum? Primarily focusing on SC-other wagon possibilities (Ythill, MM, Atlas).

I'm confused. Ythill is dead town. MM/OGML doesn't make much sense as an SC-buddy anymore as I described, though I am looking at that mostly as OGML -> SC interactions vs other way around. Atlas/qwintz is currently my second scummiest read. (Changes to that will likely depend on Jazz.)

I'm focused on Apoth because as I said, he was my scummiest read yesterday and SC-scum, Yt-town doesn't invalidate that. That doesn't mean I can't/won't change my mind, but the Ceph case doesn't convince me.

I'm going to request an extension on long in-depth posts for the moment due to my LA at the moment/no access 15th-19th. If people need it, I'll try to dig deeper into SC -> other people interactions, and can formalize a case on Atlas/qwintz when I get back. (Don't expect all that stuff on the 20th exactly.)

[MacavityLock]

One thing that niggled me was the long post you made drawing connections between me and SC, and posted afterwards exclaiming you wouldn't do the same on Ceph. That seemed very.... Interesting.

As Ceph is in the middle of my scumlist right now, I don't feel like I should be the one building a case on him, nor do I feel like I should be defending him specifically. What else could a long in-depth post accomplish?

[MacavityLock]

I never said anything about building a case, or defending him. Just showing us where you stood at that point. You certainly showed where you stand on me. It'd be nice to see that clarity on the main suspect of most people.

I was quite specific in those posts about how I felt about Ceph.

[MacavityLock]

Likely last post before my No Access begins.

Will start digging in again when I get back.

[MacavityLock]

OK, I'm back. Not fully caught up yet, but mostly. I really do think Ceph's wagon contained at least one scum, and I think it's likely that qwintz is the guy.

This sequence strikes me as very weird:

It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch. Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.

unvote, vote: StrangerCoug

You sound pretty confident. I agree that SC has acted quite scummy.

That is a quick turnaround, but he's also passing the responsibility to OGML.

woot! One scum down.

Did he infer, or did he know?

And day 2, his case on Ceph was really weak. iso post 39 brings up 3 reasons in his Ceph-case, only one of which I find all that compelling.
"1) Voted w/o reason to get a reaction" - Random stage, happens all the time.
"2) Pulled an about face on Primate" - How is this scummy? See below for continuation.
"3) Repeatedly says he has already given reasons w/o elaboration" - This is a fair point, but has no one else done anything scummier?

iso post 40 is interesting enough to quote in entirety:

I don't recall ever thinking [Primate] was scum. Obnoxious but never lynchworthy.

Let's look at the record.

@Primate voters: even if Primate is faking a PR, I don't think it's scummy. Antitown, perhaps, but not scummy. And I'm far from positive that he's making it up anyway.

followed by

Unvote, Vote: Primate

because stop.

AND

If you're giving up, I will as well. I was hoping if we got enough votes on Primate he would give it up, but if the wagon's greatest supporter is going to jump ship it'll never work.

Unvote

.

You were putting pressure on Primate and suddenly backed off.

In what way is what Ceph said contradictory? In what way is his backing off scummy?

Vote: qwintz

----

Note: I'm not letting Apoth off the hook yet. He's reverted to his useless ways of early D1.

Okay, so is that another power role we lost?

What is your purpose in asking this question? Is that all you have to add to the game right now?

[MacavityLock]

Well, I've done some re-reading of SC's posts to see if I can find anything that would suggest a link between him and another player, and I'm pretty happy with my vote on qwintz. I didn't see anything in SC's posts to or about Atlas that were anything other than conversational or even coaching. Early in the game when Atlas asks about how to get the game started, SC responded with his iso post 5, which looking at it again seems like a bit of advice on how to not get votes on you. The following iso posts are all directed to Atlas, and all have a very conversational tone: 8, 9, 17, 36, 37, 43, 51, 54, and 61.

The only other SC posts about or to Atlas at all I can find are:
52 - SC votes Ythill for asking for votes on Atlas. Looks to me like protecting a buddy.
-6 hours pass.-
55 - SC removes his vote on Ythill because there's now a "reasonable case" on Atlas. Still, he drops a "minor FoS" on Yt.

Once qwintz replaced Atlas, SC mentioned him exactly once, when he thought qwintz hammered Apoth, and then all he said was "Congratulations."

Also, note that SC's iso post 1 contains his first random vote of the game: On Atlas.

All told, these SC -> Atlas interactions do feel like they could be coming from scumbuddies. Vote is staying for now.

Other stuff:

Vote ML

More or less for the reasons in 781 which I know he replied to, but I still like the vote. Will respond to his response later as im running behind in a few other games right now too.

My response is "Please give me more arguments to refute." I already answered your 781 questions, and if you have more, let me know.

So essentially, you and Mac are going after me because I don't have anything to contribute at this time.

No, no, no. I'm going after you because you were scummy Day 1, you have not been scumhunting, and you've been active-lurking (which qwintz is right about, by the way). And now in 863, you've added 2 nice 5-letter acronyms in some nightkill WIFOM and some OMGUS without a great backing case.

I'm simply wondering, ML. Afterall, what am I meant to post at the beginning of the day?

I don't know, post a case maybe, like I did. Really anything other than a rhetorical question about how we lost a power role would be nice.

[MacavityLock]

Actually, sorry ML. I thought you voted me.
Jazzmyn, who are you suspicious of?

Ha! That was an oddly timed cross-post, given the low activity at the moment. Just to be sure we're on the same page, I am still suspicious of you, even though my vote isn't on you right now.

[MacavityLock]

This I still think is one of ithe bigger points against you. Your post 33 (11/20) was the first post since your 19 (11/12) which even mentioned SC in some suspicious light.

...

This just seems like a suspicion that was just there and never acted on. He called SC scummy in the early game and perpetually ignored him for the rest of the game, although SC always was a top suspect when asked by people. Smells like a fake-suspicion to me more then anything else.

SC's interactions with MiteyMouse and Ceph set me off early, though MM was my preferred suspect at the time. Subsequently, Corvuus's play really irked me mid Day 1. When I posted my top 3 being MM, Corv, and SC, no one else had done enough to get on my suspicion list yet. To be honest, SC was a step down from MM and Corv on my list at the time. As I've said more than once, on page 14 SC went from mildly scummy to pretty darn bad with iso posts 52-55. But I was not yet willing to hammer.

Going from suspect but never mentioned to "I will hammer if needed" in nothing flat... just really sits poorly with me.

Nice misrep. Please don't put something in quotes like that if I didn't say it. I requested a claim from SC, never said anything about a hammer if needed. There's a big difference.

Is the qwints case anything outside of calling SC scum before the flip?

Um, yes? Weak case on Ceph-wagon. Jumping on the newly revitalized SC-wagon in a very suspicious manner. SC -> Atlas/qwintz interactions that I posted above.

[MacavityLock]

So we are in basic agreement of what happened then?

I guess so, if that's the way you want to put it. At least in terms of what happened, not in terms of interpretation.

Its pretty similar to me, you agreed with Cephrir about what he had been saying, called SC scummy and asked for a claim. That just sounds like intention to hammer to me.

I do not agree that requesting a claim = will hammer if needed. Similar maybe, but not the same.

[MacavityLock]

Sigh.

Unvote

for re-read given claim.

[MacavityLock]

qwintz, please tell us why you protected OGML N1, and why you switched to Jazz N2.

[MacavityLock]

OGML, on the other hand, had begun to attract some negative attention.

Was this negative attention from anyone other than Ceph? This is a serious question to make sure I didn't miss something.

Something feels fishy to me about switching off OGML for the N2 protect. The fact that he led SC's lynch and the fact that he would be attractive for NKs didn't change N2. So why protect someone who posts potentially useful stuff rarely over an active player who was probably our most confirmed at the time?

If Ceph had flipped scum, would you have switched off of protecting OGML?

Let's assume that this succeeded and is 'true'. Apoth dies and flips up scum.

Only 2 scum remaining.

It is 100% IMPOSSIBLE for SC to survive the entire game. Even if he is lynched at the 'final moment' at lylo or heck even by you (Qwints) counterclaiming him at lylo, he *will* be lynched.

Corv, this logic does not work. Let's assume as per your argument that qwintz is real Doc and Apoth is SC's buddy. During Day 1, SC and Apoth couldn't have known that there was a Doc in town. Easy to assume, but not always true. So, given that no one counterclaimed, it's possible that they assumed that there was no Doc. I could definitely see SC trying to "confirm" himself by serving up a Day 1 scum, especially given that he was the RB.

[MacavityLock]

In fact, I'm going over it again, and in posts right after SC's claim, Apoth said the following:

Wait, for people claiming Doctor, is there actually a doctor role to claim?
I'm confused as at the beginning, it doesn't specifically if there are any special roles in this game.

Of course, we'd never know if there was a doctor in this set up unless the doctor died, or if there was a cop in the setup.

Pretty role-fishy in retrospect.

[MacavityLock]

@qwintz:

1) You and LF made some negative comments earlier in the day that you then backed off. It was mostly Ceph's case.

2) OGML was fairly inactive on the last part of D2. I thought Jazz's analysis was very solid. It was a judgment call mostly motivated by Ceph flipping town.

3) Hell no. If Ceph had flipped scum, OGML would have been protected the rest of the game.

Why did Ceph flipping town affect your protect? I really don't understand the logic behind that.

----

@Corv:

If SC tried to serve up his scumbuddy, I don't think it would have confirmed him, no. That's not the question though. The question is whether or not SC thought it might.

I also don't agree that if SC had survived Day 1 that he definitely would have been killed somehow at some point without a counterclaim. At LYLO, who knows what other scummy activities may have occurred, and SC's scumminess from Day 1 might have been forgotten or over-shadowed. Who's to say that scum couldn't have planned to No Kill one night in an attempt to confirm?

For Apoth's 'role-fishing', to even discuss this you have to first tell me directly if you think Apoth is scum and Qwints is doc.

Well, to be honest, I'm in this very awkward situation where Apoth and qwintz are my top 2 suspects, but given Day 3, I think it's highly unlikely that they're scumbuddies. It's annoying because I'm pretty sure that I'm wrong about one of them, but I just don't know which one.

I can see both cases as being 'possible' but to make the logical leap for Apoth being scum would need to explain:

Apoth-scum saying that SC-scum is not doc but rather town fakeclaiming. does that make sense?

Apoth-scum saying that SC was scum all the way up until the doc claim, buying the doc claim, not buying the doc claim, and then his

buddies

decided he was useless and thus tried to get rid of him as opposed to the RB, etc.

All that speaks to is a) inconsistency and b) an unsophisticated player. Inconsistent behavior is a pretty good scumtell. I do owe Apoth a more complete re-read though, as opposed to a skim of relevant posts. (Time constraints due to semester start.)

One thing to ask you: I bolded a word up there in your quote. Why would you assume that his buddie

s

would be busing, and not just SC?

[MacavityLock]

I guess I just have to ask, do you think Qwints would survive all the way to lylo and endgame?

It's the scum's job to cause confusion. If we mislynch today, we will be in LYLO tomorrow assuming 2 more scum. So, yes, I think it's completely plausible that qwintz will survive to LYLO and endgame.

As for the rest, like I said, I need to do a more complete Day 1 re-read.

[MacavityLock]

Posting in all games: Hopefully short V/LA due to being down with a nasty fever. Trying to play Mafia when I can't fully concentrate is a bad thing.

Noted. Hope you feel better soon!

[MacavityLock]

Just checking in to say that I'm not back to full health yet, but since this game is late enough, Huntress and I would both prefer that I stay in this game (as opposed to all the rest of my games, which I've dropped). Not yet capable of adding content, though hopefully soon.

[MacavityLock]

...so I am not going to advocate a qwints lynch while MacavityLock potentially enjoys immunity as a result of his own absence.

I approve of this. Expect something with content tonight.

[MacavityLock]

OK, I'm going to start with defenses, and then move on to scumhunting.

I am still suspicious of MacavityLock, primarily because of the complete lack of interaction between him and StrangerCougar on Day 1.

This much is interesting. ... My gut is stubbornly giving me a fairly town read on him, but I'd be interested in what he has to say about this specific point.

Well, to respond to this, I don't think there was a complete lack of interaction between me and SC. I called him out on things, he was my first legitimate FoS (though not my first legit vote), and I was the one to call for his claim. Soon after the doc claim put him off-limits, I purposefully tried to ignore him. He was clearly scummy enough to not trust any scumhunting and everything else at that point is just noise. (See my iso post 41 for corraboration on my attitude post-claim.)

As for SC -> me interactions, I don't really think it's my place to comment on them. Except to say that I certainly remember there being some and that you should make whatever conclusions you want.

To correct something:

Here's my evaluation of ML:

He's put pressure on players a couple of times and backed off without a solid explanation.

See

Corvuus Day 1: 2 FOS's and a strong criticism followed by a declaration that he is just an aggessive townie.

MM: Day 1 "Top of my scum list" completely dropped after Apoc started acting ultra scummy. OGML's replacement and non-scummy behavior led to a (correct) townie declaration.

Apoth: "My Apoth suspicions, which were stronger than my MM suspicions, from day 1 remain." No votes post Day 1, though ML has constantly pressured him.

Think what you will of the way I've acted towards Corv, but the other two are just plain incorrect. With MM, she moved down below Apoth but was still scummy (again see my iso 41). Suspicions of MM/OGML remained for a while (see iso 57 and 59), but upon a re-read of end of Day 1, OGML "cleared" himself in my mind (see iso 60). Apoth I never really backed off of. Day 2 my vote was on him all day.

So, "He's put pressure on players a couple of times and backed off without a solid explanation" is incorrect. I might have done that with one player (Corv), but backed off with a reasonable explanation of one (MM/OGML), and never backed off of another (Apoth). So, whatever you think this is a trend of, it's not a trend. (By the way, I don't think the fact that you completely missed my Apoth vote is particularly scummy. Just, you know, wrong.)

I will either lynch ML or Qwints today.

Since when am I a suspect of yours? Why? I know that LF and Jazz are suspicious of me, and at this point, I don't know what else I can respond to them about.

----

OK, some scumhunting:

Here's what I said about SC's doc claim.

Here are my initial impressions based on a quick read through.

1. I really don't like the SC doc claim. The odds of running a doc up on d1 should be fairly low and I'll bet that false claims are at least as likely as real ones. On the other hand, we can't lynch a claimed doc without a counterclaim on d1 so the case against SC should be tabled for now.

It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch.

Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.

and then of course I quickly hopped on the SC bandwagon as soon as OGML started it.

My thinking was that it would be too obvious if I pushed for a SC lynch on my own post-claim, but I was willing to jump on the first wagon that came along. I did not intentionally breadcrumb and risk scum deducing I was doc, but you should find my play consistent with my being a cautious doctor.

So, here's my problem with the above. I can understand that a real doc might want to follow the crowd in terms of not lynching the fake doc right away. And I can understand a real doc making similar statements about why. But I have a real hard time seeing a real doc writing the sentence that I put in bold. A real doc has got to know that there is no chance of a mislynch here, and doesn't have to say what qwintz said above to stay hidden.

I also have a hard time seeing why Ceph's town flip would cause any change in protection decisions. Between those two things, I'm getting kind of dubious of the claim. I think I'm getting comfortable with a qwintz lynch, and I don't think that the claim puts him off-limits at this point in the game. I'm not going to vote yet, because we have time.

----

I also noticed this from Jazz. Early after her replace, she did those person-by-person summaries. Here's a segment of the one about SC:

SCoug:

...About the Macavity/SC clash about SC answering for MiteyMouse, I didn’t think there was anything really wrong with SC answering Macavity’s post about MM’s alleged omgus vote, but I did find it odd that SC went on to elaborate on it further in his next post even after Macavity made it clear that he wanted MM to answer for herself. It looked a bit like scum-coaching by SC if MM is also scum, or buddying if MM is town.

It's clear that she's aware that there are interactions between me and SC. So Jazz, did you forget this, or does it not count for some reason?

[MacavityLock]

If for some reason we didn't lynch qwints today, who would people go for? (This is mostly so we don't get de facto locked into one lynch.)

Apoth is still second on my list, though there is definitely weirdness in the timing of SC's busing if they are buddies. Also, something about LF's and Jazz's harping on me feels exactly like their stance on Ceph-town yesterday. It might be more OMGUS than anything, but I really don't like it.

Elmo, I'm not sure what you mean about "reverse busing". Could you explain, and let us know who you're referring to?

[MacavityLock]

"Well, I don't think he's scummy, but I feel like being lazy and finding the easiest alternate bandwagon, given other peoples' suspicions." This is OMGUS, but I think it's well-deserved.

Vote: qwintz

.

[MacavityLock]

Wait... why are we thinking of lynching a doctor claim again?

This is not Day 1. Doc claim doesn't mean you're immune. You should know that. I still like qwintz lynch, but given his failure to make a good case on me with his consistant vote and this act of protection, LF has definitely moved on to my willing-to-lynch list.

ML: I don't understand your post/point being made.

My point is as follows: Given peoples' suspicions, I seem to be the easiest backup lynch. However, I am not the only one. Multiple people have mentioned suspicions of Apoth, LF, and to some extent Jazz. So, qwintz said earlier:

ML, you're right. I missed your vote when going through your posts in iso (probably because it was at the end of a line.) I did note that you have consistently put pressure on apoth. I also wrote that OGML's behavior led to you ceasing to suspect him. I really don't see you as scum.

And yet, he is voting for me. Therefore, it feels to me like he's trying to weasel out of his own lynch in the easiest way possible with no regards to his actual suspicions. This is scummy.

At any rate, I think you should claim now ML. The deadline is saturday and I can't imagine a 'doc' being lynched at deadline over you.

If you need me to vote for you before you claim, then I'm ok with that too.

I am going to go same policy that qwintz did: When people voting for me + people requesting a claim from me >= 4, I will claim. I believe that number is now 3: LF, qwintz, Corv.

Very simply, the bandwagon on me is crap. I refuted every point against me. I have shown that Jazz's case is based on a fallacy: either something she forgot about or something she lied about. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now, but she still hasn't answered me on this and her lurkiness is making me doubt her that much more. Corv still hasn't made clear his case against me. And qwintz doesn't see me as scum.

[MacavityLock]

On the other hand, I need to review what exactly ML did in response to the second SC wagon.

You won't find anything. From my iso 63:

As for the late SC wagon, it occurred over the course of 1 RL day when I was not on-site due to finals. Seriously, feel free to check across every game I was in. You'll find no posts because I wasn't around. Sadly, I can't give any more proof than that.

[MacavityLock]

Corv, why do you refuse to state your case on me, even though you're willing to lynch me?

[MacavityLock]

ML: i didn't say I refuse to state a case against you.

I said I don't have time right now, the deadline is in 2 days, I want to extend, have more time, etc. etc.

No, no, that's fine, just say that next time. But if an extension is not forthcoming, and you still want to jump on my wagon without a case, that's a blatantly anti-town thing to do. I have a very hard time with "process of elimination" as the case against me.

By the way, I have no problem with a deadline extension, but the fact is that we've had ample time today, and have met that with generally low activity. I could totally understand if our mod would prefer that the day ends under the current deadline.

I'm not the one who is going into a 2 day deadline lynch against a claimed doc.

Can you explain why you're as opposed as you are to lynching the claimed doc at this stage of the game?

----

I am not opposed to a MacavityLock lynch, as he remains one of my top suspects, and he is playing very similarly to how he played in the game I was in when he was scum.

No response to my point that your case on me is based on a fallacy?

[MacavityLock]

I'm just saying your case is flawed and you hadn't yet responded to the fact that it's flawed, or even acknowledged my point. If you had at least acknowledged it, I would have been fine waiting for your answer.

[MacavityLock]

I agree, deadline extension = good, especially since I wasn't around yesterday. Will add more tonight or tomorrow.

LF, please translate 978 when you get the chance.

[MacavityLock]

The fact that you are grasping desperately on to a single word out of all of my posts, in an effort to pretend that there is no case against you is quite ridiculous.

Actually, I'd like you to go more into this. As far as I can tell, your case on me can be found in its entirety in your iso 20 and can be summed up as "ML had limited interactions with SC on Day 1." Having read back over Day 1, this is either not true or just as true for Atlas/qwintz as it is for me, so I'm not sure I understand your focus on me.

[MacavityLock]

ML, just because you were gone when the SC lynch happened doesn't mean that you can ignore my involvement.

Sorry, this is in reference to what? I've never ignored your involvement at the end of Day 1; I have wondered whether it was more likely a bus.

I already explained that the reason I didn't do more was to avoid attracting scum's attention.

I understand this, but I still have a hard time with:

It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch.

[MacavityLock]

Well, I'll try to answer 988 point by point as well as I can, but I'll need a bit of time to collect each point and try to remember my mindset as of 3 months ago. All I can say as a blanket statement is that those were my legitimate suspicions at the time.

As for

ML, why were you markedly

less

suspicious of SC than virtually everyone else was?

I really don't think this is true. If you have to compare me to others, I'd ask that you re-read both Atlas/qwintz and Apoth on Day 1.

[MacavityLock]

OK, I did my best to pull what I could from 988. It's long.

Then Cephrir dropped a 4th vote on EG without providing any reasons, and SC unvoted EG and voted Cephrir for 'mindless bandwagoning'.
Then you posted:

I approve of Ceph's bandwagoning. Hey everybody, let's quicklynch!

Nobody else voted for either EG or Cephrir in the meantime, so Cephrir had all of one vote, at which time you posted:

In fact, I think that people who don't see that are

jumping on the easier Ceph-bandwagon

. The first semi-suspicious thing that happens in this game, and you don't want to reason it through? Also, I'm not following on Gorillaz-scum at all. So, yeah, I'm going to unvote him.

FoS: StrangerCoug and MiteyMouse

. In fact,

Vote: MiteyMouse.

StrangerCoug at least is saying original things. MM is just following the trail SC is blazing.

And that is the entirety of "suspicion" you point at SC up until the point where he is at L-1. You FoSed him for casting a single vote on Cephrir, by couching it in language that suggests he's "jumping on the Ceph-bandwagon" when no such wagon existed. In the same post, you immediately voted for MM, who had not voted for Cephrir at that point either, and then you quasi-compliment SC in the process, by saying that he is saying original things.

A few things here. First off, I highly approved on Ceph's vote, which I found to be a blatantly pro-town way to get out of the random vote stage. While MM did not produce a vote on Ceph, I felt that her posts with respect to agreeing with SC about Ceph constituted her joining that bandwagon. I can completely understand if others don't agree with that view of the situation, but that was my interpretation. As for the "original" comment, I do find it more pro-town to come up with one's own argument than to parrot someone else's. So, when 2 people make basically identical scummy posts, it seems like a reasonable tiebreaker to me.

A while later, a wagon started on SC. You were nowhere near it. You never commented on it, and you never voiced any actual suspicion of him. All you did was mention vague references to some past voiced suspicion, but the only voiced suspicion you ever made of him was for that vote of his for Cephrir noted above.

On November 1, SC was up to 3 votes, with no comment about SC from you at all.

The wagon as of Nov 1 was Primate, Ceph, and Zeppo. Take a look over their posts to that point. None of them had provided any more complete reason for their vote than I did with my MM vote and SC FoS. In fact, Zeppo's vote on SC looks basically equivalent to my vote on MM, except with the vote recipients reversed.

SC voted for Corvuus on that day and you followed with a FoS on Corvuus on November 2, ostensibly for not noticing that Primate had voted for SC at the end of one of his stupid picture posts and you thought that Corvuus should have noticed. That is a ridiculous reason to cast suspicion on someone, and it looks like you were trying to divert attention from SC to Corvuus.

I would absolutely expect someone who has just re-read to know where the current vote is of the person he is voting for. I don't think it's unreasonable to bring it up. I do admit that a FoS is an over-reaction here, and at the current stage of my MafiaScum career, I would not have FoS'ed.

On November 5, Apoth jumped on with a vote against Corvuus. You returned on November 6 and 7, saying nothing about SC or his wagon at all

The SC wagon at this point had reduced to only Primate and Zeppo. Other than Corv, had anyone else said something about this wagon at this point?

[Then] on November 8, you

FoSed Corvuus again, for "jumping all over SC"

and by hinting at Primate and SC being two townies going after each other.

You wrote that despite the fact that on November 7, SC himself agreed with Corvuus that he had been ignoring Primate's accusations against him for too long, and despite the fact that SC wrote some questions to Primate regarding the basis for his suspicions, etc. You didn't mention that at all, and just went after Corvuus for questioning SC, misrepresenting him the process. You went further and sort of defended SC by asking how anyone can attack Primate for his logic and reasoning while Primate is only posting in pictures (which you supported and previously said you were able to comprehend) and you suggested that if Primate thinks that SC is scum, it is up to him to convince the town that SC is scum. This looks like you are completely disinterested in SC's scumminess, while simultaneously wanting to keep Primate around as an utterly useless townie.

Wow, this whole paragraph is a misrep of me. First off, I think my point on Corv's wall-of-words posts around this time was totally reasonable. I read Corv as equating defense and attack, and I think that's a flawed way to draw your suspicions. I have put two relevant Corv quotes at the bottom of this post, because I don't want to interrupt the flow here.

As for the deal with Primate, I had

already come around

to the conclusion that I wasn't going to stand for him posting without reasoning anymore. (See my iso 12 and 13.) So you saying that I wanted to keep useless-Primate around is a misrep.

On November 10, you answered a question that SC asked of Apoth by saying that just because Primate hasn't said what his reason for voting SC was doesn't mean he doesn't have a reason. No comment about anything that you think might be scummy about SC, no questioning to try to see what it is that others find scummy about SC; it almost looks like you thought you may have gone too far in your last post trying to paint SC as town, and decided to at least comment on the possibility that someone might have some reason to think SC might be scum, without actually offering up any suggestion of suspicion yourself.

SC's question of "Hasn't it been established that Primate voted me without a reason?" is not specific to Apoth. In fact, if anyone disagrees with SC's assumption here, they've got to refute it so as to establish that what he's saying is

not

true. Also, at this point, the only person making comments about SC's scumminess is Corv. No one else is commenting at this point either, not even the other people on his wagon.

On November 12, you posted solely to avoid a prod, saying you have nothing new to add. When called on that, with regard to SC, you said:

SC, I mentioned early on as having suspicions of. He has not done anything to remove those suspicions. Nothing new to add.

But, in fact, the only suspicion you had voiced of SC by that time was your FoS of him back in October for allegedly jumping on a non-existent Ceph-wagon.

So? Doesn't mean those suspicions went away.

Then you added, to Corvuus:

You, I recently mentioned that your attacks of SC are full of flawed logic. I saw your explanations and wasn't particularly convinced. Nothing new to add.

In fact, you had misrepresented Corvuus' posts about SC by claiming that he said that townies should attack other townies if they are attacked, when that wasn't what Corvuus was saying, but rather that he thought SC should have been defending himself from Primate's attacks, etc. (See your November 8 post referenced above in which you hinted at SC being a townie).

I still think my interpretation was reasonable at the time, and not a misrep. Having seen his responses to this, I think it is less scummy than I thought at the time. I may have misunderstood and disagreed with him, but I didn't misrep him.

Then SC asked you what your case on MiteyMouse was and you responded:

Like I said, I called MiteyMouse out early for his blindly following you in your bad logic.

The problem is that you never previously directed any accusation at SC for his alleged "bad logic" so why direct an accusation to someone else who you claim was agreeing with it? I don't see a single post in which you cast suspicion at SC for his "bad logic". Perhaps you can point one out.

This was about my iso 4. "Bad logic" refers to the Ceph-scum and Gorillaz-scum cases at that point.

Then, despite having just said that MM and SC are your "top suspects", in your next post on the same day, you said that

MM is still at the top of my scum-list, but you're [Corvuus] 1A.

And just like that, SC is down your list again. It seems as though when you found yourself in a position of having to actually refer to SC, you made sure to add suspicion of others so as to direct attention away from SC.

I found Corv's harping on my completely null actions at this point to be very scummy.

On November 15, SC answered a question that you directed to MM and you asked SC why he answered for her. You said that you wanted her to answer but then you went on to to invite SC to elaborate on his answer anyway. Hardly consistent with claiming not to want him to answer it.

I did not want him to answer for MM, but once he did, I think its reasonable to press him on his answer. Specifically, I couldn't actually make sense of his answer, so I don't see why it's a bad thing to ask about.

Then, when he elaborated as you requested, you went on to say that wasn't what you were looking for and then you went back to MM. In hindsight, this exchange looks forced, particularly in light of the fact that you had previously answered a question that SC had directed to Apothecary, without there being any reason for you to do so (back on November 10). It almost looks like the two of you were aware of your serious lack of interaction and wanted to get some in, on safe grounds, in order to later to try to avoid the accusation that you were too distant from each other on Day 1... as now, for instance.

And how would we have set up that kind of coordination to interact here? Also, I have addressed the "question directed to Apoth" bit already. Seriously, you're reaching here.

After SC's fake claim, you went back to attacking Apoth, then SC started a bandwagon on him, which you were, of course, happy to jump on. You mentioned SC a few times in your posts after his fake claim, but only addressed him directly a couple of times (once on a semantics point and once to say, "sorry, I'm a bit confused" about something he said about his suspicions on Ythill and Zeppo being minor any more, which seemed a very odd post at the time, and even stranger in hindsight), and any other references you made to him seemed peripheral in nature.

As I already stated, once he made the doc claim, I considered him both off-limits and too scummy to pay attention to, so I did my best to ignore him.

Throughout the entirety of Day 1, SC never voted for or FoSed you once, although he did every other player in the game except for MM, who was your main target on Day 1 prior to SC's fake claim. You FoSed SC only once, back in October, and never again, and you never voted for him. This, despite the fact that you FoSed or voted the second largest number of players in the game (after SC). But the hands down scummiest guy in the entire game, you virtually ignored, in relative terms.

He also never voted or FoSed Atlas/qwintz except for a random vote. I'll ask you the same thing I asked Elmo: Please re-read Atlas/qwintz and Apoth on Day 1.

There's more to 988, but I think I've covered everything else there in either this post or previous posts. The only things I specifically haven't addressed are Jazz's assumptions of my intent, i.e. I tried to distract from SC's scumminess. I wasn't trying to do that at all, but if that's what she thinks, that's what she thinks, and there's nothing I can say that will change that. If anyone does have something that I haven't addressed here or any other questions, let me know.

----

Corv quotes referenced above:

It also doesn't explain your defense of Primate and refusal to believe my points. If you don't believe them, then why don't you attack them like you try to attack everyone else?

But you don't. You say you don't believe my points, etc. but then you don't think I am scummy and just keep voting after other people.

Primate has a ven diagram where he has you shown as 100% scum. Shouldn't you be angry? Shouldn't you fight back? Explain why you don't attack Primate's logic, his diagrams, etc. and why you don't think he is scum for what he is doing when you clearly think others are scum when they are doing virtually the equivalent.

[MacavityLock]

I am realizing that between

Like it wasn't already obvious how town Jazz is or something.

Always good to have more information from the obv-towns

and qwintz's claim of protecting Jazz last night, qwintz and LF would make for really good scumbuddies.

[MacavityLock]

I have to go back and check the chronology of it and referring to which posts and such but SC's post #38 in isolation has him quoting you (ML) saying you can see a case on SC, MM and 'you' (i don't remember who the 'you' refers to). SC says, 'whats the case on MM?', apparently ignoring the fact that you said you have a case on SC.

He asked for my case on MM. I answered him. Let's say you thought 2 players were scummy, Player A and Player B. Say Player A asked you straight up "what's your case on Player B?" would you answer or not? In your answer, would feel like you were required to say "By the way, I still think Player A is scummy"?

This made me think SC (as silly scum) just ignores cases on himself made by his scumbuddies (ML, Primate/Ythill) but he 'leaps' after everything else done by other players. We know that this isn't true with Primate/Ythill now (and I still don't know why SC let Primate say he is scum twice with no defense, reasoning, or anything and inconsistent with his own play this game) but it still leaves several questions for SC-ML.

So, you've now given an example of how SC ignored an attack on him from a proven townie. Doesn't that make me

more

likely to be a townie if he ignored my attack?

I can see how you (ML) argue that you didn't ignore or leave SC alone (possible, but you didn't go after him that much) but what about SC leaving you alone or ignoring your comment?

I can't answer for SC's motivations.

A reason has never been given or appeared as to why it *should* be real and yet SC and ML both believed it, said they could interpret it, etc. I took this as 'buddying' with SC-Ythill/Primate-ML (which is why upon SC's scumflip, several of us said ythill is next) and it could explain why Ythill was nightkilled (assuming no crumb by Ythill, primate may have been crumbing that he was a power role with his "i got my eye on you, surveillance robber, convenience store thing") to simply break up the chain of SC-Ythill-ML. You, ML, also stated you had reasons to believe the PR or that you could interpret it (which threw me for a loop since I got nothing out of it but at least 2 players said they could 'figure him out'.

Early on, I believed Primate's PR (no reason not to), and as I stated as long as I could understand, I was okay with it. Once it became clear that the PR was made up and he became intractable, I got fed up.

I don't see how any of your arguments make me more likely to be scum.

[MacavityLock]

Corv, I don't see a case in there on me. You recounted Day 1 and then completely independently called me scum.

[MacavityLock]

If you can deem it nice enough to respond to one thing or clarify your own thoughts and intentions regarding it, then when I posted about you 'posting to avoid a prod' and you said you had nothing further on SC, did you read his comments or defense towards me and Primate? What did you think about it, what was going through your head, etc?

To the point when I made my "post to avoid prod" your arguments with SC mainly dealt with his reaction to Primate and the PR, as well as whether he was defending himself or not. I thought both of those points were null-tells, and not scum-tells. Looking back at it now, I don't think my views have changed. I don't see how SC's reaction to the Primate and the PR made him more likely to be scum. I don't see how SC defending himself in the limited way he did against Primate made him more likely to be scum. Just because you happened to be right doesn't mean your arguments were.

So, discounting your case which I considered to be null, I was left with the suspicions I had to that point: MM, SC, and you Corv, all of whom I had previously posted about.

You make it sound as if everyone had locked and loaded on SC by the time of my avoid-prod post, but that's not true at all. You were probably the only one to have decided on him as def-scum at that point.

Also, please please don't condescend to me. I really don't appreciate it.

If you still don't see it or want to respond, then please start scumhunting now otherwise I see you being lynched anyways.

I think I've made my cases on qwintz and Apoth quite clear. As it turns out, I'm really busy this week, and given Apoth's replace would definitely be in favor of an extension, even though this game has been going forever.

[MacavityLock]

It actually is worse for you than Ceph since you state that SC was one of your "top 3 suspects" then how come you didn't read his reactions and see how weird/nonsensical they were, make any comment on it, or do anything with it at all?

This is horrible logic. You're saying that because I had earlier found SC scummy for something completely unrelated to Primate, I have to agree with you that his actions in reference to Primate were scummy. That's clearly ridiculous.

I could go on and on and list how you weren't really scumhunting

No way was I not scumhunting on Day 1 or any day of this game.

I think your scummy, you think you aren't; but you don't have anything else to say or help your case?

I've answered every question anyone's asked me. Maybe you're not satisfied with my answers, but honestly, what more can I do?

As for the "please don't condescend to me" comment. It doesn't help you at all since my post was in response to your "one line post" of "i don't see a case".

That comment wasn't supposed to help me in this game. It's about common courtesy, and I'd ask you to just watch how you phrase things, because your responses are pissing me off in a way unrelated to the game.

As for my one line "I don't see a case" it was specifically in reference to your post 1006. I seriously don't see any reasoning suggesting I'm scum in that post, and yet you voted. I'm not saying that there has never been a case.

[MacavityLock]

Ooh, cross-post fun.

ML - I don't think that your case on apoth is particularly clear. Could you sum it up for me? I think you're referring to your claims that he's been inconsistent and has lurked.

I'll work on this, but I really am busy the rest of this week, and I really won't be able to guarantee anything unless we get another extension. Sorry about this.

[MacavityLock]

Sorry for the triple post, but hey, you asked.

ML - I don't think that your case on apoth is particularly clear. Could you sum it up for me? I think you're referring to your claims that he's been inconsistent and has lurked.

A good place to start would be my iso 58, the bottom of my iso 71, and my iso 78. When I get a chance, I'm going to go through my notes on the game to see if I have anything else to add. But given Apoth's general lurkiness, the posts I listed probably do a pretty good job of covering my case on Apoth.

[MacavityLock]

Also, I pointed out a long time ago that the only time SC voted or FoSed Atlas/qwints was a random vote early on Day 1 (before you did, MacavityLock, even though you mentioned it later as if you had just discovered it for the first time).

You're refering to my iso 71? No, I was aware of it. I was just bringing this point up again as part of SC -> Atlas interactions that suggest that qwintz might be scum.

As I said before, I can see a SC/Llama/qwints scum team as plausible, but I can also see several other combinations, including a SC/ML/qwints team (see my iso post 28 in which I said that I could see any of the following combinations: SC/ML/Llama, SC/ML/qwints , SC/ML/Apoth, SC/Llama/qwints, SC/Llama/Apoth, SC/qwints/Apoth).

This is kind of lazy, to be honest. You took the 4 people at the top of your list and are taking all possible combinations. I'm not sure how this analysis is helpful in any way. That is, it's equivalent to saying "My top 4 are qwintz, LF, Apoth, and ML." This analysis is much more helpful if you can narrow this list down. For example, I personally doubt that qwintz and Apoth are buddies.

Hilariously, the most natural interpretation of his second sentence ("I thought that a doctor claim was a stupid one that would get a really quick lynch") in the drunk post is that he disapproves of qwints' fakeclaim choice.

I interpreted it as a simpler "I am suprised that people believed qwintz." Given LF's continued town-read on qwintz, we can probably amend the above to "pleasantly surprised." This just speaks more to the qwintz-LF connection.

----

"Am I on the same wagon as a scumbag?" is an interesting question to ask, actually.

Which is why I'm very interested to hear what Apoth's replacement says.

----

I really cannot see any persuasive reason for acting differently to a single mafia group, though; the odds of a second scum killing group (SK, mafia) not killing in two nights is low.

Minor confusion on what you mean here. Are you saying that there's not much of a reason for the town to act differently to how we would act given a single mafia group? If so, I agree.

----

Doc-watcher is basically a combo that mafia would need to sacrafice someone for without a roleblocker. There was a roleblocker, but a 2 mafia + other anti game would basically be over REALLY fast if the RB went early followed by a massclaim. Especially with a tracker helping to catch scum.

Interesting point, and does make me that much less likely to believe the doc claim. However, I'm wondering if reading too much into this is playing outguess-the-mod.

I should be clear, I do not actually advocate massclaim now, I just want to hear if anyone has an opinion.

Against, for the moment.

[MacavityLock]

We've already got a doc, a watcher and a tracker. It isn't that likely that there is another power role and if there 'is' then that is a useful point of discussion simply because a 4th power role existing doesn't really fit the setup and (if they breadcrumbed or something) could give us cause to rexamine qwints again. If there really are no more town power roles, then everyone is simply going to claim 'townie'.

We've got an

unproven

doc. I currently think he's scum. If we have another power role, I don't want it outed yet.

ML: If you had to pick one player that you felt was definitely town, who would it be?

Not a huge fan of this question, honestly. First of all, if you've been paying attention, you'd know the answer. Secondly, I'm not sure how this particular discussion is useful other than to help scum decide who's towniest.

Actually, right now is one of those times where I'd be very disappointed if we didn't get an extension. Apoth is my second suspect, and if we don't have time to question his replacement, there is a problem.

[MacavityLock]

So basically, I think we've got a quints/LF team, or quints is our last scum if its only two mafia.

Vote: quints

, putting him at L-1.

Sadly, no. You're only confirming Apoth's L-2 vote on qwintz.

Curious what you think of Macavity.

Me too :}

[MacavityLock]

Is it just me, or does that look like approximately the worst SK fakeclaim ever?

[MacavityLock]

ok, i think it is time for a massclaim.

is fine with me. Who goes first? Popcorn once we start?

[MacavityLock]

Corv and Illumina, but mostly Corv: The fact that you're willing to just take what LF is saying at face value is astonishing.

[MacavityLock]

or do you have something else to offer?

What do I have to offer? You know, maybe the possibility that LF is lying.

1) LF is actually an SK.
a) 2 mafia to start. - We're down to 1 mafia, 1 SK, and 3 town. SK needs to die for town win.
b) 3 mafia to start. - We're down to 2 mafia, 1 SK, and 2 town. We'd have to lynch mafia and even then only a super-awesome cross-kill would get a town win. If this is the actual setup, I'm pretty much writing it off as a loss.

2) LF is actually just plain old mafia. - 3 mafia to start makes the most sense here, so we'd have to assume LYLO, and an LF lynch would get us to a 2/1 LYLO tomorrow.

There are a whole bunch of other scenarios that I tried to work out, but there are 2 totally plausible cases up there where lynching LF makes the most sense.

----

Are we doing this massclaim or no? I don't think Illumina or Elmo have said what they want to do yet. Actually, has Elmo even posted yet today? Checking, checking,... no.

[MacavityLock]

Sorry, I may have missed your claiming, Corv. So, just to be sure, you're claiming vanilla?

[MacavityLock]

By the way, if that just leaves Elmo and me unclaimed, it looks like it's about that time. I'm also tasty tasty vanilla.

[MacavityLock]

Well, holy crap. I really didn't much believe the whole SK thing, given 1 kill a night and Occam's razor, but now

I claim SK.

At this point, we have to assume Corv is scum of some form, right? I don't believe for a second that it started as 3 mafia/1 SK/1 neutral, which would be 5 non-town out of 11 players. So, figure one of:
1) 3 mafia (SC, LF lying)/1 SK (Corv) - LF lynch and ridiculous cross-kill for town win. Unlikely setup because today would probably be over already.
2) 3 mafia (SC, Corv lying)/1 SK (LF) - Highly unlikely given actual claims, and the "day over already" holds here too.
3) 3 mafia (SC, Corv lying)/1 neutral (LF) - Corv lynch will get us to LYLO tomorrow, I think, except LF wins with any lynch. Yech.
4) 2 mafia (SC)/1 SK (Corv)/1 neutral (LF) - Same result as (3).
5) 3 mafia (SC, LF lying, Corv lying) - Either LF or Corv lynch is good.
6) 2 mafia (SC, LF lying)/1 SK (Corv) - Either LF or Corv lynch is good.
7) Same as (5) but reverse LF and Corv - Either LF or Corv lynch is good.
8) 2 mafia (SC, Corv lying)/1 neutral (LF) - Corv lynch = town win.

I'm trying to figure out if there are any other permutations of the following:
a) 3 or 4 non-town to start.
b) Corv is either mafia or SK.
c) LF is either mafia, SK, or neutral.

Unless I'm missing something (and tell me

immediately

if I am), but there seems to be no downside to

Vote: Corv

.

[MacavityLock]

Ooh, I just realized: Game theoretical argument for LF to not be neutral - Players play to their win condition. LF-neutral should have worked out these scenarios from my previous post as well and seen that his best chance to win would have been lynching Corv, not me. Thus it's less likely he's neutral. (I don't say this as 100% because I know I tend to be way more analytical in these situations than other players.) So, drop scenarios 3, 4, and 8 to less likely.

Upshot: I still think lynching Corv is the optimal play, but the most likely scenarios are 5, 6, and 7, so an LF lynch would probably be alright too.

[MacavityLock]

Sorry for triple post, but EBWOP:

5) 3 mafia (SC, LF lying, Corv lying) - Either LF or Corv lynch is good.
6) 2 mafia (SC, LF lying)/1 SK (Corv) - Either LF or Corv lynch is good.
7) Same as (5) but reverse LF and Corv - Either LF or Corv lynch is good.

Scenario 7 is a reverse of scenario 6, not 5. Sorry for any confusion there.

[MacavityLock]

Either way, the *only* way for town or SK to win is to lynch you instead of LF/Corv.

Don't see it. In my analysis, I think I showed that your lynch will do fine for town, barring unlikely situations. Please explain how my lynch is good for town given that we have to assume that both you and LF are non-town elements.

I also find it interesting that the possibility of you being mafia/scum and lying through your teeth is left out, but oh well. I won't be killing LF or letting LF get lynched today.

Well, this is ridiculous. I'm town and I know I'm town, so why would I make any analysis based on me being scum? Other people can take my analysis with a grain of salt of course, and should feel free to rebut me. But I think my conclusions about your lynch hold no matter what.

So in the end, it all comes down to Illumina/Elmo. Why don't you make your case/plea to them. I've already made up my mind that this is my optimum play and also for LF.

Well, I just did, and will continue to do so if they have any questions. Also, since when are you speaking for LF? (See scenario 5.)

BTW, I think upon further review that my scenario 3 also falls down on the "day would be over already" theory. Mark that one as less likely too.

[MacavityLock]

Elmo, did you miss the part where Corv claimed that he is the SK? Please tell me a pro-town reason for him to do this.

[MacavityLock]

I know what I am, im confident in Corv being town and illumina being non-mafia.

Corv claimed SK! I didn't imagine that. What am I missing?!

[MacavityLock]

I mean, seriously, at this point, there are only so many scenarios possible and I think you should be trying to argue/convince Illumina at this point.

Stop fucking telling me what to do! This is what I mean by condescension, you did it to me all day yesterday, and I don't fucking appreciate it.

Macavity: can you convince us that LF is scum and not you?

I'll start working on this, but I have a question for everyone who isn't Corv first: What do you think of my 1086? That is,

even if you think I'm scum

, which would put scenarios 1-3 back on the table, doesn't my analysis still show that Corv is the optimal lynch? Has Corv played such a pro-town game and me such an anti-town one that you guys are willing to

ignore an SK claim?

[MacavityLock]

Has Corv played such a pro-town game and me such an anti-town one that you guys are willing to

ignore an SK claim?

Your 1086 seems to be predicated upon Corv being scum, which I don't think is very likely.

So then, your answer to my question is yes?

[MacavityLock]

Could everyone please clearly state whether they think a SK exists or not, and why?

Probably not, but given a claimed SK, I want all the bases covered. I do

not

think we can treat Corv as pro-town, and I'm pretty satisfied in my 1086 analysis that Corv's lynch is my best play, and probably the rest of the town's best play too. I do think the most likely scenario at this point is 5: Corv and LF as remaining scum.

[MacavityLock]

Corv's lynch is my best play, and probably the rest of the town's best play too.

Wait, is there a difference between your best play and the town's best play? Interesting.

Also, if you think they're both scum, how would you feel about lynching LF first?

My point is that since I know I'm not scum, the analysis from my perspective ignored scenarios 1-3. Since the rest of the town shouldn't ignore those possibilities, others' conclusions may be different, though I still think it points in Corv's direction.

As for LF lynch:

Upshot: I still think lynching Corv is the optimal play, but the most likely scenarios are 5, 6, and 7, so an LF lynch would probably be alright too.

[MacavityLock]

@mod

, you've missed my vote on Corv.

Oops! Fixed, thanks.

[MacavityLock]

If so, then who is his buddy? If it was Elmo, the game may already be over if Elmo hammers ML. If it is you, then the game also may be over if you hammer ML.

If you think LF is scum, then his scumbuddy has to be ML, in which case, what is the point of this discussion in determining which?

Or you know, it could be you.

My apologies, but I'll likely be LA for under a week for midterms. I'll be around, but won't have much time for a long re-read, which is what this game deserves right now.

[MacavityLock]

Midterms is over, catching up now.

[MacavityLock]

Evidence: You both are hesitating, saying nothing, posting nothing and doing nothing (well not quite nothing, you are stating nothing over and over again repeatedly and waiting for 'something'?) and everything is dependent/relying on what YOUR alignments are. Your actions are scummy and anything you say and do ASIDE from

1. hammering ML scum
2. Posting a real case on LF for him being scum

just reeks of scumminess.

Elmo and Illumina: You do realize that he's trying to taunt you into hammering, yes?

@mod

or anyone who can answer, I have a stupid hypothetical question: If 1 mafia and 1 SK were the last two players, what faction would win?

[MacavityLock]

Yeah, I hear you guys. There's just one more thing I'd like to hear from Corv. Corv, as you've claimed SK, who did you kill/attempt to kill each night?

[MacavityLock]

ML: is there a point in your question?

Obviously since there is only 1 NK each night, there are only 2 (well 3) possibilities.

1. SK target same as Mafia
2. SK target got doc protected
3. there is no SK

Yes, there is a point. Am I to understand that you won't be answering then?

[MacavityLock]

Prodded. Waiting on Corv to answer my questions.

[MacavityLock]

Post-game analysis:
Well, that was anti-climactic. Kind of disappointing all told. At the very start of Day 4, my expectation was that LF would get quicklynched, and I'd pick a final 3 of probably Corv, Illumia, and me. However, when Corv went right after me, I figured we were pretty much screwed. I realized very early on (well before Corv's post about it) that I couldn't self-hammer without giving away the fact that LF and I were partners (since Elmo and Illumina were clearly willing to go after LF). I also didn't want to go into endgame at that point: I would've had to convince Elmo or Illumina to go after Corv instead of me (not easy given Day 1). Whereas LF in endgame would have had the option of trying to get Corv to go after Elmo or Illumina, which Corv seemed to have been entertaining. So I decided pretty early on that I would act as obv-scum paranoid about an SK in the game. This would hopefully a) explain why I continued to wait on voting LF and b) get Elmo or Illumina to hammer me as opposed to continuing to go after LF. Corv's SK claim and subsequent lurking gave me the excuse I needed. Elmo and Illumina, any particular reason neither of you guys hammered me?

Things that were not manufactured:
1) My absense at the end of both Days 1 and 2. I really wasn't around either time.
2) My annoyance at Corv. It's all in fun, and I do try to keep it that way, but being told/dictated how to play really rubbed me the wrong way.

Jazz, your case on me on Day 3 was pitch perfect. Exactly what I was afraid of and well done. There was a reason you were nightkilled :} Elmo, as a continuing student of the game, what did you see as the difference between my play here and BSG? By the way, Elmo and Jazz, I promise I'll be in a game with you guys as a townie eventually :}

My proudest moment in the game: The YTkill. I had a minor informational read on Primate before he got replaced, and YT's first post in the game absolutely cemented it for me. (Of course, I thought he was a cop, but still.) The fact that it led to a good amount of confusion for the town was added benefit.

As it turns out, a doc counter-claim on Day 1 would have been absolutely disasterous for us scum. Had qwintz counter-claimed, we would have lost SC, OGML could have watched qwintz die, and we would have lost another one of us. (I think it was me who made that kill.)

All in all, activity was pretty lousy this game, and I certainly think it helped us win. Good game all.

Now reading LF's post-game post, I see that he thought he needed to get lynched as opposed to me. As per my analysis above, I totally disagree. Guess that happens when scum can't daytalk :}

[MacavityLock]

ROFL @ SK paranoia. That was bizarre, I don't know what you people are smoking =D

To be clear, I never actually thought that there was an SK in the game. That bit was an act in promotion of me getting lynched over LF.

As for whether LF would have won tomorrow, I really don't know. My guess is that the chance was no better than 50-50, depending on Corv. But once I was at L-1, I realized that I had basically no chance of winning had I been the one going into tomorrow, and I'll take 50-50 over slim-none.

[MacavityLock]

I didnt win if the game went to another day and I knew that. It would of required me to sell that

1) OGML was targeted by SK/mafia N1
2) Jazz was targeted by SK/mafia N2
3) SK/Mafia tried to cross kill immune N3
4) Same thing happened again or all mafia were dead N4

You could've made it easier on yourself by claiming the SK was nightkill immune, or claiming yourself as nightkill immune (again). There's also of course the possibility that both SK and mafia could have targeted the same guy on nights 1 and/or 2. I think you had more than enough leeway to sell it as necessary, though I can't say it would have been easy.

[MacavityLock]

I think selling a OGML target on n1 is not unreasonable since I actually mistook him for a counterclaiming doc on day 1 (was I right about the reasoning for the kill btw? If you didn't think he was doc, it looks like a bad kill)

LF, you did also mention that if there was anyone who was doc, it would have been him. I was in full support of the NK simply for the fact that he was by far the most confirmed townie. Elmo, why do you think he was a bad kill?

I am well surprised you got a power role read off Primate (Ythill not so much I guess). WP there. =O

Direct from my nighttalk PM to LF:

Couple reasons why I think Ythill is cop:
1) I think Primate did his picture posting as a way to provide opinions without reasons, which could be useful later when he has results.
2) In Ythill's first post:

SC was indeed Primate's PE#1. Someone asked whether this was based on Nz info and I can confirm that it was not. My role has no more info

at this point

than anyone else.

Bolded for emphasis.

I think there were a few other things that I noticed, but that's what I remember off the top of my head.

Yt's final post saying "oh please keep thinking I'm scum" or whatever just made it obvious.

[MacavityLock]

Forgot to say, but thanks Huntress for modding a good game!