Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[Huntress]

Vote Count

Qwints 3 - (MacavityLock, Elmo, Apothecary)
MacavityLock 1 - (LLamaFluff)
Apothecary 1 - (Qwints)

Not voting 2 - (Corvuus, Jazzmyn)

With seven players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.

[LlamaFluff]

This I still think is one of ithe bigger points against you. Your post 33 (11/20) was the first post since your 19 (11/12) which even mentioned SC in some suspicious light.

...

This just seems like a suspicion that was just there and never acted on. He called SC scummy in the early game and perpetually ignored him for the rest of the game, although SC always was a top suspect when asked by people. Smells like a fake-suspicion to me more then anything else.

SC's interactions with MiteyMouse and Ceph set me off early, though MM was my preferred suspect at the time. Subsequently, Corvuus's play really irked me mid Day 1. When I posted my top 3 being MM, Corv, and SC, no one else had done enough to get on my suspicion list yet. To be honest, SC was a step down from MM and Corv on my list at the time. As I've said more than once, on page 14 SC went from mildly scummy to pretty darn bad with iso posts 52-55. But I was not yet willing to hammer.

So we are in basic agreement of what happened then?

Going from suspect but never mentioned to "I will hammer if needed" in nothing flat... just really sits poorly with me.

Nice misrep. Please don't put something in quotes like that if I didn't say it. I requested a claim from SC, never said anything about a hammer if needed. There's a big difference.

Its pretty similar to me, you agreed with Cephrir about what he had been saying, called SC scummy and asked for a claim. That just sounds like intention to hammer to me.

[MacavityLock]

So we are in basic agreement of what happened then?

I guess so, if that's the way you want to put it. At least in terms of what happened, not in terms of interpretation.

Its pretty similar to me, you agreed with Cephrir about what he had been saying, called SC scummy and asked for a claim. That just sounds like intention to hammer to me.

I do not agree that requesting a claim = will hammer if needed. Similar maybe, but not the same.

[qwints]

Anybody want to comment on the Apoth case?

[LlamaFluff]

Anybody want to comment on the Apoth case?

I think Apoc is town so still dont support that lynch.

[Apothecary]

Why hasn't Jazzmyn posted? It's been a days, and we all want to hear what she has to say.

[Jazzmyn]

I am not convinced of the case on qwints, so I will not be hammering him at this time.

I have a bunch more to say, but it will have to wait until tomorrow, as I was off ill with some kind of stomach bug Thursday and Friday and just back into things today, and now I've gone and had a couple of glasses of wine tonight (okay, more than a couple) so I'd best leave my detailed thoughts to tomorrow.

Regards,
Jazz

[Huntress]

Corvuus has been prodded. I understand Elmo has limited access at the moment.

[qwints]

I am not convinced of the case on qwints, so I will not be hammering him at this time.

I repeat that I will role claim if and only if I am asked to by a person not now voting for me. Hammering without asking = scum.

[Corvuus]

hey,

sorry, been pretty busy/out of it lately.

I won't be hammering qwints yet but I do think Qwints should claim now.

---

I don't like Apoth continuing his posts the way he does, but I still think Apoth is more likely town than lurking scum from SC stuff.

----

Qwints: Is your case on Apoth just him currently being 'use-impaired'/lurking? When SC got lynched as scum, you seemed to think Apoth was town then, so what happened to change your mind?

----

For the case on Qwints:

The part about the vote on Cephrir, the timing, wording and such. (which is what Elmo, etc. discussed) is one part (and I do see the point) but I guess, to me, something that I wondered about at the time was when SC went from being 'claimed doc, unlynchable' to lynch of the day within a incredibly short span of time.

I, and others, disliked SC's scumminess, play, etc. and... if I had more guts, I probably would have did what OGML did which is say lets lynch him anyway because we think he is lying but I didn't think it would be that simple/'easy'. OGML's post was that since a majority of us (me, Qwints, etc.) thought SC was scummy and lying, then we should get over our 'innate fear' to lynch doc and should lynch him anyway.

Ythill (and I) disagreed since SC would be lynched 'eventually' which is true and I also stated the fact along with Qwints stating it as well (in different words) that SC would die eventually so we didn't need to do it 'now'.

We all consider that scum had to bus SC the point is 'when' they decided to do so, etc. I was on VLA-ish but I was around and when the 'shift' came, I could see the point but I didn't want to go for it without more consideration since SC would certainly have died before the end of the game, etc.. Ythill stuck to the 'optimum play' until the lynch, and, personally, I liked the optimum "safer" way better but I could see the point, the information, prevention of mislynch, etc. so I unvoted/was willing to hammer. To me, Ythill and I made 'sense' in our 'defending' of SC's lynch.

The shift in post #29, #30 for Qwints and it being only 13 minutes apart... is kind
of suspicious to me. (copy paste below without quote tags). It is post #666 overall for OGML's vote for SC at 2:17 am (with 665 and 666 being Qwints) and Qwints read the post and decided to go with it within 3 minutes?

---
Posted: Wed Dec 17, 2008 2:07 am Post subject: 29 Reply with quote
It's simply not worth the risk of a mislynch. Maybe the doc was acting scummy to avoid being a nk target. Maybe he was just being an idiot. Or maybe SC is scum. It's just not worth it to lynch him on D1. If SC is scum and there is a doc in the game, he can counterclaim at LYLO or his being nk'd will out SC as scum.
---------
Wed Dec 17, 2008 2:20 am Post subject: 30 Reply with quote
unvote, vote: StrangerCoug

You sound pretty confident. I agree that SC has acted quite scummy.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Just after 'confirming' vote for Apoth and saying that Apoth had multiple chances to redeem himself but now it was going to be Apoth's lynch.

Qwints didn't elaborate more on it... and in fact, if he thought Apoth was scummy then (as he likes to state/repeat) make a case and try to get them lynched. Instead, within a span of 3 minutes, he went from lynching Apoth to lynching claimed doc with little to no comment. and yet now, he is back to going after Apoth.

You may argue that I (and others) bused SC but in general there was consideration/thought process in it. Elmo and others stated why they dislike the claim and voted, gave reason, etc. and such. Qwints entire 3 minute 'conversion' was "you sound sure".

I have a hard time believing that upon my re-read. Maybe it is just me, but I wouldn't blindly follow OGML (or anyone) without thinking about it myself, considering, etc. and the short conversion is strange like a scum scenting the change in the wind and jumping in at the ground level.

Corvuus

[Elmo]

I'm gonna

unvote

.. I don't like what I remember of qwints, but that was a pressure-y vote rather than a "die plz" one. I'm not entirely happy leaving it there when I basically haven't talked to him much, and still haven't really talked to Jazzmyn when I'm not wild about some of her reasoning either. (How is the illness, Jazz?)

I approve (in theory terms) of qwints' attitude to claiming.. you can consider me as not asking you to claim right now, though obviously I might do so later.

I have persistent bad vibes from LF. Some of that is his interactions with ML; I was in a game with ML that's now finished, where he was scum and I was town, and his play seems different here. (There was a particular mechanic that made me misread him early game there, though.) I suppose that's fairly dependent on ML's alignment, but LF's comment about "hammer if needed" reads like stretching to me. Hrm.

[qwints]

As corvuus has requested;

I'm the doc. I protected ogml night one and jazz night two. This was why I was so quick to jump on the SC wagon.

[Corvuus]

I'm sorry but that makes no sense at all.

I'm tempted to vote for you right now but I want you to explain more your thought process, etc. for the SC-Apoth interactions.

In particular:

SC is at L-1 and claims doc. We all jump off and you, as the real doc, don't counterclaim since it is day 1 and SC will be lynched eventually.

I can believe that. It isn't worth it to counterclaim scum fakeclaiming doc on day 1 since they will be caught 'eventually' and also if you, if real doc, happen to get nightkilled, then SC would be almost certainly axed. So win-win for not counterclaiming on day 1.

But then SC went *STRAIGHT* after Apoth (like a bulldog) and stated at various times "why isn't apoth dead yet" type statements and such... which you appeared to agree with as you also 'pushed' (or asked) about Apoth's impeding lynch.

The thing is, you, as 'real doc' should know that SC is lying and thus scum and that even if SC is the 'worst scum' in the entire universe, would he 100% bus his scumpartner to that extent? This information should have made you consider or at least more wary of following SC and lynching Apoth but you were at the very least totally complicit in it which makes me ponder quite a bit when now it seems like you are saying that you switched to voting SC as soon as you could because you knew he was lying....

...

So you still think Apoth is scum?

Corv

[MacavityLock]

Sigh.

Unvote

for re-read given claim.

[Apothecary]

I'll have to

Unvote

. We pushed a little close when we lynched SC, and I don't want to lynch you and find out that you're the real deal.

[Corvuus]

well, i would like an answer so.

Vote Qwints

I'm alright with lynching another claimed doc in this game since we already did SC.

So please elaborate more than just who you protected, etc.

Cor

[MacavityLock]

qwintz, please tell us why you protected OGML N1, and why you switched to Jazz N2.

[qwints]

I protected OGML night one because he had led the SC lynch. He also had demonstrated an ability to persuade the town. After SC flipped scum, he wasn't going to be a top suspect for a while and might have attracted a nk as someone who looked like the doc.

I protected Jazz night two because of the in-depth analysis she produced and the risk of not getting to hear all of her results. Today's further delays have begun to worry me some. Jazz was also labeled as likely town by several players on day 2. OGML, on the other hand, had begun to attract some negative attention.

As for apothecary: On day 1, I thought he was inexperienced scum getting bussed by SC. I thought it was likely that SC would try to 'confirm' himself by being on a scum wagon. So in answer to:

The thing is, you, as 'real doc' should know that SC is lying and thus scum and that even if SC is the 'worst scum' in the entire universe, would he 100% bus his scumpartner to that extent?

is an unequivocal yes.

[Corvuus]

That sounds nice but factually you are asking me to believe the following:

1. Assume 3 scum in town.

2. Assume that SC is scum fakeclaiming and that SC is bussing his partner (apoth) in order to verify himself.

Let's assume that this succeeded and is 'true'. Apoth dies and flips up scum.

Only 2 scum remaining.

It is 100% IMPOSSIBLE for SC to survive the entire game. Even if he is lynched at the 'final moment' at lylo or heck even by you (Qwints) counterclaiming him at lylo, he *will* be lynched.

Only 1 scum remaining.

This 1 scum will have to be able to succeed and kill everyone else off while avoiding suspicion, busing his partners (killing Apoth then and SC later when real doc claims or at lylo), etc. etc. and win in a 2vs1 situation.

Not only is this fairly unlikely (or at least, interesting scum if they did choose this), this option would have to be chosen by SC (and scumgroup implicitly) almost IMMEDIATELY after SC's doc claim and Apoth's poor word choice, etc. And then when OGML brought the wagon back to SC, the scum hopped on again immediately figuring that there was no hope and that it may help clear Apoth (who you say is a 'ineffective scum')?

Other than Apoth, who do you think is the other scum? or not enough information?

Corv

[MacavityLock]

OGML, on the other hand, had begun to attract some negative attention.

Was this negative attention from anyone other than Ceph? This is a serious question to make sure I didn't miss something.

Something feels fishy to me about switching off OGML for the N2 protect. The fact that he led SC's lynch and the fact that he would be attractive for NKs didn't change N2. So why protect someone who posts potentially useful stuff rarely over an active player who was probably our most confirmed at the time?

If Ceph had flipped scum, would you have switched off of protecting OGML?

Let's assume that this succeeded and is 'true'. Apoth dies and flips up scum.

Only 2 scum remaining.

It is 100% IMPOSSIBLE for SC to survive the entire game. Even if he is lynched at the 'final moment' at lylo or heck even by you (Qwints) counterclaiming him at lylo, he *will* be lynched.

Corv, this logic does not work. Let's assume as per your argument that qwintz is real Doc and Apoth is SC's buddy. During Day 1, SC and Apoth couldn't have known that there was a Doc in town. Easy to assume, but not always true. So, given that no one counterclaimed, it's possible that they assumed that there was no Doc. I could definitely see SC trying to "confirm" himself by serving up a Day 1 scum, especially given that he was the RB.

[MacavityLock]

In fact, I'm going over it again, and in posts right after SC's claim, Apoth said the following:

Wait, for people claiming Doctor, is there actually a doctor role to claim?
I'm confused as at the beginning, it doesn't specifically if there are any special roles in this game.

Of course, we'd never know if there was a doctor in this set up unless the doctor died, or if there was a cop in the setup.

Pretty role-fishy in retrospect.

[qwints]

Was this negative attention from anyone other than Ceph?

So why protect someone who posts potentially useful stuff rarely over an active player who was probably our most confirmed at the time?

If Ceph had flipped scum, would you have switched off of protecting OGML?

1) You and LF made some negative comments earlier in the day that you then backed off. It was mostly Ceph's case.

2) OGML was fairly inactive on the last part of D2. I thought Jazz's analysis was very solid. It was a judgment call mostly motivated by Ceph flipping town.

3) Hell no. If Ceph had flipped scum, OGML would have been protected the rest of the game.

[Corvuus]

macavity:

What I said does make sense. Even if there IS no doc in this setup at all, SC was almost guaranteed dead. He was an 'outed' doc on DAY 1 and would have to survive several 'nightkills' all the way until lylo. OGML or someone at some point would have lynched him.

So my statement that SC was basically 100% guaranteed to die before the end of game, I stand by it regardless of doc existence.

You state that Apoth and SC (assuming both scum) could not have possibly known if there was a doc. I agree. SC fake claimed doc, and no one countered (assuming no doc perhaps) or the 'real doc' (assuming Qwints is telling the truth) decided not to cc on day 1 fake claim. I can see both cases as being 'possible' but to make the logical leap for Apoth being scum would need to explain:

Apoth-scum saying that SC-scum is not doc but rather town fakeclaiming. does that make sense?

Apoth-scum saying that SC was scum all the way up until the doc claim, buying the doc claim, not buying the doc claim, and then his buddies decided he was useless and thus tried to get rid of him as opposed to the RB, etc.

For Apoth's 'role-fishing', to even discuss this you have to first tell me directly if you think Apoth is scum and Qwints is doc.

This also doesn't explain why Qwints, immediately upon SC's "self vote lynch" says "props to OGML and Apoth contribute more, etc." implying that he viewed SC's lynch flip of scum showing that Apoth was less likely scum and yet now he is jumping back to it etc. as Apoth being SC's scumbuddy and he didn't care which one was lynched since he thought both were scum.

There are just several parts that don't seem consistent to me and I see nothing wrong with my logic.... but rather the logic of a 'doc' knowing someone is fake claiming but doing what Qwints did and the logic of SC bussing his partner (and this somehow being obvious to Qwints that SC would attempt to verify himself by lynching a buddy) without any other consideration or anything...

if anything, the weirdest statement that you guys make is that SC lynching Apoth (and apoth flipping scum) would somehow confirm SC (or that SC would think this) when quite to the contrary, Apoth's flip would not have confirmed SC *AT ALL*.

SC with a day 1 doc claim, killing a scumpartner and then 'surviving' lylo is sheer impossible. I would have killed him since scum would not let a 'confirmed townie live' (which is what you seem to think it would make SC) and they wouldn't let a doc live (even if a RB argument was brought up) and combine that with SC's playstyle, etc. I don't buy it. SC could NOT have survived and even if SC gave up both of his scumbuddies, he would NOT survive lylo. It simply isn't believable.

Corvuus

[MacavityLock]

@qwintz:

1) You and LF made some negative comments earlier in the day that you then backed off. It was mostly Ceph's case.

2) OGML was fairly inactive on the last part of D2. I thought Jazz's analysis was very solid. It was a judgment call mostly motivated by Ceph flipping town.

3) Hell no. If Ceph had flipped scum, OGML would have been protected the rest of the game.

Why did Ceph flipping town affect your protect? I really don't understand the logic behind that.

----

@Corv:

If SC tried to serve up his scumbuddy, I don't think it would have confirmed him, no. That's not the question though. The question is whether or not SC thought it might.

I also don't agree that if SC had survived Day 1 that he definitely would have been killed somehow at some point without a counterclaim. At LYLO, who knows what other scummy activities may have occurred, and SC's scumminess from Day 1 might have been forgotten or over-shadowed. Who's to say that scum couldn't have planned to No Kill one night in an attempt to confirm?

For Apoth's 'role-fishing', to even discuss this you have to first tell me directly if you think Apoth is scum and Qwints is doc.

Well, to be honest, I'm in this very awkward situation where Apoth and qwintz are my top 2 suspects, but given Day 3, I think it's highly unlikely that they're scumbuddies. It's annoying because I'm pretty sure that I'm wrong about one of them, but I just don't know which one.

I can see both cases as being 'possible' but to make the logical leap for Apoth being scum would need to explain:

Apoth-scum saying that SC-scum is not doc but rather town fakeclaiming. does that make sense?

Apoth-scum saying that SC was scum all the way up until the doc claim, buying the doc claim, not buying the doc claim, and then his

buddies

decided he was useless and thus tried to get rid of him as opposed to the RB, etc.

All that speaks to is a) inconsistency and b) an unsophisticated player. Inconsistent behavior is a pretty good scumtell. I do owe Apoth a more complete re-read though, as opposed to a skim of relevant posts. (Time constraints due to semester start.)

One thing to ask you: I bolded a word up there in your quote. Why would you assume that his buddie

s

would be busing, and not just SC?

[qwints]

Why did Ceph flipping town affect your protect? I really don't understand the logic behind that.

OGML pushed hard for Ceph's lynch and Ceph laid out a case against him. Ceph flipping town made OGML less likely to be town. Next there was OGML's flippant posts towards the end of day 2.

And finally, the last post on day 2:

Like it wasn't already obvious how town Jazz is or something.

Always good to have more information from the obv-towns

vote cephrir