Mini 698 - Georgetown Mafia - Game over

[MacavityLock]

Post-game analysis:
Well, that was anti-climactic. Kind of disappointing all told. At the very start of Day 4, my expectation was that LF would get quicklynched, and I'd pick a final 3 of probably Corv, Illumia, and me. However, when Corv went right after me, I figured we were pretty much screwed. I realized very early on (well before Corv's post about it) that I couldn't self-hammer without giving away the fact that LF and I were partners (since Elmo and Illumina were clearly willing to go after LF). I also didn't want to go into endgame at that point: I would've had to convince Elmo or Illumina to go after Corv instead of me (not easy given Day 1). Whereas LF in endgame would have had the option of trying to get Corv to go after Elmo or Illumina, which Corv seemed to have been entertaining. So I decided pretty early on that I would act as obv-scum paranoid about an SK in the game. This would hopefully a) explain why I continued to wait on voting LF and b) get Elmo or Illumina to hammer me as opposed to continuing to go after LF. Corv's SK claim and subsequent lurking gave me the excuse I needed. Elmo and Illumina, any particular reason neither of you guys hammered me?

Things that were not manufactured:
1) My absense at the end of both Days 1 and 2. I really wasn't around either time.
2) My annoyance at Corv. It's all in fun, and I do try to keep it that way, but being told/dictated how to play really rubbed me the wrong way.

Jazz, your case on me on Day 3 was pitch perfect. Exactly what I was afraid of and well done. There was a reason you were nightkilled :} Elmo, as a continuing student of the game, what did you see as the difference between my play here and BSG? By the way, Elmo and Jazz, I promise I'll be in a game with you guys as a townie eventually :}

My proudest moment in the game: The YTkill. I had a minor informational read on Primate before he got replaced, and YT's first post in the game absolutely cemented it for me. (Of course, I thought he was a cop, but still.) The fact that it led to a good amount of confusion for the town was added benefit.

As it turns out, a doc counter-claim on Day 1 would have been absolutely disasterous for us scum. Had qwintz counter-claimed, we would have lost SC, OGML could have watched qwintz die, and we would have lost another one of us. (I think it was me who made that kill.)

All in all, activity was pretty lousy this game, and I certainly think it helped us win. Good game all.

Now reading LF's post-game post, I see that he thought he needed to get lynched as opposed to me. As per my analysis above, I totally disagree. Guess that happens when scum can't daytalk :}

[Elmo]

The last day wasn't lack of activity from me, something in RL came up and I couldn't get online to hammer ML in time. Erk. It was really unlikely and unexpected though, I'd do the same again.. town probably shoulda won, imo. I don't think I was particularly inactive over the game thought I was fine for all of it really. Maybe I shoulda finished second-guessing myself with ML earlier but I ended up at the right answer (shrug)

I think I've said pretty much everything worthwhile in-game already, I think.. I didn't like some of the deadlines, it seemed like people were away/busy/scum lurking and deadlines were placed because of the resultant lack of posting, when they wouldn't actually increase the pace of the game and actually detracted from it. Maybe I'm biased because I don't mind long games, I don't know.

Anyway gg, say anything you want to me but I guess most things I've already said

[Elmo]

In BSG everyone was lethargic and uninterested. I actually screwed up my read in that game because I mixed you and andersonw together in my mind, kept getting inconsistent reads, which didn't help. I thought that game you had the typical scum attitude of doing the bare minimum to not look suspicious, and you were more into it. TBH I kept second-guessing myself because of the circumstances of the game, turns out it was not a case of "different behaviour, different alignment" but "different circumstances, different behaviour, same alignment" if that makes sense. You actually don't look that different when I thought about it, but the circumstances obscured it, plus the fact I've never played with you as town iirc.

I've left hammering people until near deadline in a huge number of games and this has never happened as far as I can remember (then again I don't think I've lived this long before), something came up really unexpectedly :[ Before that, I didn't hammer you because we were thinking along pretty much the same lines; despite the fact it makes absolutely no sense, Corvuus seemed fairly convinced that LF really was a survivor and had excellent chances of buying me as your buddy, especially given my stated opinion of you previously. I don't know if LF wins tomorrow really, only Corvuus can answer that. I would have preferred to kill him today though; the whole idea was to get me and Illumina voting him at which point we instawin because you either hammer him and we lynch you tomorrow, or you

don't

hammer him and we 100% know you were paired when we lynch you today. I didn't realise the thing with LF being a survivor until when I posted it, and I guess there's no reason that Corvuus would necessarily buy into that really..? Dunno.

ROFL @ SK paranoia. That was bizarre, I don't know what you people are smoking =D

It's kind of pissy since we actually did 90% of what was needed to win, even given the lack of help from power roles and the dumb mislynches :\ I dunno, I don't feel like I did much wrong beyond not fingering ML earlier.. I was always sorta half-and-half about him, I figured Jazz would talk me round of I was wrong (which she did) so I guess I was less investigative that I could have been xD

[MacavityLock]

ROFL @ SK paranoia. That was bizarre, I don't know what you people are smoking =D

To be clear, I never actually thought that there was an SK in the game. That bit was an act in promotion of me getting lynched over LF.

As for whether LF would have won tomorrow, I really don't know. My guess is that the chance was no better than 50-50, depending on Corv. But once I was at L-1, I realized that I had basically no chance of winning had I been the one going into tomorrow, and I'll take 50-50 over slim-none.

[LlamaFluff]

I didnt win if the game went to another day and I knew that. It would of required me to sell that

1) OGML was targeted by SK/mafia N1
2) Jazz was targeted by SK/mafia N2
3) SK/Mafia tried to cross kill immune N3
4) Same thing happened again or all mafia were dead N4

If you put all that on top of the fact that playing to my win condition would of outted me immediately, I would of had no chance but to no kill and hope that just freaked someone enough for something to happen. That or kill Illumina and just lurk to hope that Corv voted Elmo right out of the gate.

I was thinking there might be an unlucky SK though after qwints flip though since watch-track-doc vs rb-goon-goon seems town weighted. Jazz popping up as the only kill basically brought me back to no SK though, even though I still needed to argue it.

[Elmo]

I'd have to agree about the power roles being a bit town slanted, that was one of the reasons I was reticent to believe qwints. I figured maybe you had a ninja or something extra, but that's kind of a rare role.

I think it's not such a hard sell if you consider that Corv already believes you and isn't likely (going off memory here) to ask those kind of questions since he believed there was a SK already, even though the same argument about the kills applies. Objectively speaking it's ridiculous but mafia is never objective (objectively speaking the survivor claim is fishy as hell, but he bought that, so..)

[MacavityLock]

I didnt win if the game went to another day and I knew that. It would of required me to sell that

1) OGML was targeted by SK/mafia N1
2) Jazz was targeted by SK/mafia N2
3) SK/Mafia tried to cross kill immune N3
4) Same thing happened again or all mafia were dead N4

You could've made it easier on yourself by claiming the SK was nightkill immune, or claiming yourself as nightkill immune (again). There's also of course the possibility that both SK and mafia could have targeted the same guy on nights 1 and/or 2. I think you had more than enough leeway to sell it as necessary, though I can't say it would have been easy.

[Elmo]

Yeah, I really liked the bulletproof survivor, I've considered using something similar in a game myself. I have no idea why you retracted it tbh, it was a good twist on it, since actually I'd have put you high on the list for a kill n1 if I were mafia. If I were in Corv's shoes a question in my mind would be why you weren't dead yet.

The fact is that a SK is not necessarily shooting n3 for fear of being endgamed, as well. So there's only two nights worth of missing kills. I think selling a OGML target on n1 is not unreasonable since I actually mistook him for a counterclaiming doc on day 1 (was I right about the reasoning for the kill btw? If you didn't think he was doc, it looks like a bad kill) so you've really only got n2 to sell. I can't remember the details, but it's not

too

far from being viable, and add the fact Corvuus is already heavily biased towards you, I think it's doable. It's certainly something I think is worth avoiding totally by trying to lynch you d4.

This is before what I posted near the end. That throws a spanner in the works, but if you hadn't pointed that out, then I don't think anyone would have noticed, actually.

I am well surprised you got a power role read off Primate (Ythill not so much I guess). WP there. =O

[LlamaFluff]

I think selling a OGML target on n1 is not unreasonable since I actually mistook him for a counterclaiming doc on day 1 (was I right about the reasoning for the kill btw? If you didn't think he was doc, it looks like a bad kill) so you've really only got n2 to sell.

I had him as some investigation PR, for the wrong reasons though in the end. My other finished game with him had him as a cop and he went through almost identical early day posts as that game.

I shouldnt of pulled the BP part of my claim in retrospect, maybe I did it because I have done a similar thing as town once where I claimed I still had a one shot action when I had already used it. You bringing up that large game where I faked psych I had no clue how to react to and just ended up ignoring it.

Also this is either the fourth or fifth game I have been in with SC, he has got lynched in all, but it figures this was the first time he was scum...

[LlamaFluff]

Also funny stats for replacing now for me, 4 of 6 have been as scum, and I have never been alive D2 as a replacement town aligned... Even better when I realize that as non-replacement its been only 1 of 12 as town if you include newbie games.

[MacavityLock]

I think selling a OGML target on n1 is not unreasonable since I actually mistook him for a counterclaiming doc on day 1 (was I right about the reasoning for the kill btw? If you didn't think he was doc, it looks like a bad kill)

LF, you did also mention that if there was anyone who was doc, it would have been him. I was in full support of the NK simply for the fact that he was by far the most confirmed townie. Elmo, why do you think he was a bad kill?

I am well surprised you got a power role read off Primate (Ythill not so much I guess). WP there. =O

Direct from my nighttalk PM to LF:

Couple reasons why I think Ythill is cop:
1) I think Primate did his picture posting as a way to provide opinions without reasons, which could be useful later when he has results.
2) In Ythill's first post:

SC was indeed Primate's PE#1. Someone asked whether this was based on Nz info and I can confirm that it was not. My role has no more info

at this point

than anyone else.

Bolded for emphasis.

I think there were a few other things that I noticed, but that's what I remember off the top of my head.

Yt's final post saying "oh please keep thinking I'm scum" or whatever just made it obvious.

[Elmo]

I think it's bad simply because he's the obvious doc protect. I'm still pretty staggered that qwints didn't protect him, and that actually detracted significantly from his claim. The only reason not to protect him is if you're playing WIFOM games with the scum, and that's rarely a good idea imo. I just think 90%+ of docs are going to protect him, and the last thing you need at that point is a missed kill.

I don't think Primate did the pictures for that reason.. he's very heavily towards not giving reasons (sometimes even content) for what he does. the Ythill thing I agree, I saw the twilight post and went argh, I've run up yet another power role (I thought MM was doc due to OGML). I missed the one in his first post (or didn't think it was a tell, can't remember), I guess that's just another reason not to talk about power roles like that as town.

[qwints]

I honestly thought OGML's role behind the ceph lynch made him less towny. I did protect him night one.

[Elmo]

The Ceph lynch is arguable (I don't think it does, personally; but if it does, not very much) but I honestly find it harder to come up with a realistic situation other than something like a claimed cop that pretty much demands a protect. He's been single-handedly responsible for the lynch of the mafia RB on day 1; perhaps that's slightly overstated, but in my view he would pretty much have to claim scum for me to protect someone else.

I guess I just don't see why Jazz is more likely to be town, especially compared to OGML. Unless I'm much mistaken, the long insightful analysis posts happen regardless of alignment, and it's not like she'd pushed for scum death at that point.

I don't mean this to come across as critical FWIW. I just like to talk a lot with people post-game since I think it's the best way to improve.

[qwints]

I realized the Jazz protect was a mistake when I saw OGML had been killed, but I wasn't entirely sure that OGML was town. No offense taken, elmo.

LF, congrats on confusing the heck out of me with the sk and survivor stuff. You took two very unlikely claims and threw a wrench in the town's otherwise easy choice to lynch you.

[Ythill]

I have now officially lost more games as town than I have won. Somebody lynch me quick before I breed. Oooops... too late.

I haven't been reading deeply enough since my death to grasp all the finer points, but I've been skimming along the whole time. WTF was that SK claim? If I'd been alive, I'd have been hard pressed to not lynch Corvus when he said that, for policy if nothing else.

Good game scum. LF's survivor claim was a nice move.

[Jazzmyn]

Good game, all, and congrats to Llama and Macavity.

It was a bit frustrating not to be able to get online in time after I had decided that I believed qwints' claim and was going to go after a Llama lynch...by the time I got home to post, the deed was done and qwints was dead. *sigh*

I agree with Ythill about Corvuus' SK claim, too. I would certainly have been hard pressed not to go for his lynch after that. And it's unfortunate that it came down to a deadline lynch, but real life happens.

Glad to see I had Macavity pegged, though.

Many thanks to the game mod for being attentive and way cool, too.

Regards,
Jazz

[Huntress]

Night actions:

Night one

OhGodMyLife watched Corvuus
Ythill tracked Qwints
Qwints protected OhGodMyLife
MacavityLock killed Ythill


Night two

OhGodMyLife watched Jazzmyn
Qwints protected Jazzmyn
LLamaFluff killed OhGodMyLife


Night three

LLamaFluff killed Jazzmyn


Night four

MacavityLock killed Elmo

[Huntress]

Was it just coincidence that Atlas changed his avatar to an apple just after the game started? Or could it have been a breadcumb?

I didn't like some of the deadlines, it seemed like people were away/busy/scum lurking and deadlines were placed because of the resultant lack of posting, when they wouldn't actually increase the pace of the game and actually detracted from it. Maybe I'm biased because I don't mind long games, I don't know.

Yes, I didn't handle the deadlines very well. I was afraid of the game stalling but with hindsight I might have done better to just stick with the individual prods; especially on the last day. I welcome any comments on this or any other aspect of the game as I still have a lot to learn.

Many thanks to the game mod for being attentive and way cool, too.

Thanks. It was great to have such a good bunch of players

I enjoyed modding this, my first game, although I'll admit I was a bit thrown by the pictures and wondered if I should do anything about it but thought it was better to keep hands-off and see what would happen. But I really hadn't expected how much fun a mod can have just watching the interactions with inside knowledge.

[MacavityLock]

Forgot to say, but thanks Huntress for modding a good game!

[Ythill]

Yeah, thanks Huntress. The game was smoothly run and it's hard to believe that it was your first.

[StrangerCoug]

And my buddies pulled it through. I was hoping to get Apothecary lynched Day 1 and set Cephrir up for Day 2, but I guess suicide

WAS

the answer this time.

[Corvuus]

huh. oh well. Real life killed my activity but i think you guys should have hammered regardless.

I didn't see the rule, if there is no majority at deadline, it will be a no lynch otherwise I might have actually tried to be convincing, etc. instead of just leaving ML with 'most votes' at deadline or actually changed my vote to LF just to lynch someone since no lynch is autolose.

If it had been player with the most votes, then ML would be lynched and town would have easily won (I will say why). I still don't know why Elmo or Illumina didn't hammer such obvious scum and worry about things TOMORROW. You could hate me, dislike me, and want to lynch me, but you will still end up doing it tomorrow. If you know you are town, and you thought the other person (Elmo/Illumina) was town, and you thought LF was scum, then ML has to be scum as well right? What else is there to talk about? Indeed, you even said "ML-LF" are the scumteam, so why wait? You didn't believe I was SK, so there would be a tomorrow, I even told you there would be a tomorrow, so hammering is the best move and I got you 2 votes on ML scum.

As for why I claimed SK, I figured why not? You all had me as town and I wouldn't be lynched for it, I knew ML was scum. I simply needed 3 votes to lynch him and the only way to get LF's vote was for me to claim SK. I also thought there was 2 mafia-scum left and claiming SK would make me impossible to be lynched (since it is autolose for town if I am SK) and I would get LF's vote.

So I did and he did. That is all I wanted. I even told you several times what I wanted, i.e. ML hammered and then a new day would start, 1 player would be killed. If there was a SK and a Mafia left, then the game for town would most likely already be over, so I didn't care about that possibility. I actually expected LF to die at night after ML's lynch since LF was either SK or mafia scum since survivor didn't make sense. I assumed he was SK and so fakeclaimed SK to get his vote. Either way, it didn't matter. The day simply required that I lynch scum, I got 2 votes on ML and I expected one of you to hammer and I didn't say what I thought of LF because, hey look at that, he was voting certain scum ML and I just needed to lynch scum. If I said, I don't like or believe LF, he wouldn't vote with me. I was simply going to leave that until tomorrow since, to me, ML was certain scum, LF was possible scum/SK but ML *had* to die. If I died (since I did claim SK) then Elmo/Illumina would pawn LF. Town wins either way as long as the day didn't end 'no lynch'.

If I didn't die at night and LF didn't die, then he would be most suspect to me since that would show that there was no SK (since the game would have been instantly over if there was with 5 players left with 2 mafia and SK left, and if that was the case town would win since mafia would target LF-SK and LF would target mafia-scum) and that if there was a SK, it would be LF, if no SK, then LF has to be scum. There were no other possibilities.

Once I had gotten 2 votes on ML, the rest of the day didn't matter to me. I expected Illumina to hammer and not backtrack since Illumina said ML was scum. When Illumina backtracked from hammering obvious ML scum, I was confused. ML *was* scum, Illumina now said "no, i don't think he is scum". What changed in between thinking he was scum and thinking he isn't scum? My SK claim didn't matter since there HAS to be 2 scum left and I can't be lynched. I claim in case LF is SK and 2 scum are left and it is the only way for town to win, if LF is not SK, he is scum, and either way I still lynch ML-scum today and worry about tomorrow when it comes.

In the end, it seems the only reason why town lost was:

1. I thought ML would die at deadline so I didn't care and I wasn't around at the end anyways.

2. Illumina and Elmo wanted to lynch LF first and ML second. I wanted to lynch ML first and LF second. If I knew it would result in a no lynch, then I would have conceded to get someone lynched and if it happened to be LF first, then fine. Either way, ML-LF was most likely and further discussion WAS pointless from my point of view since it would be talking about 'tomorrow' when a NK would simplify and answer basically everything. i.e. LF not dying would convince me that it was 2 scum and no SK.

------------

I viewed the game as being already won, I just needed ML to die.

From my point of view, I covered every possibility except a deadline no lynch.

I thought Elmo and Illumina were town but said you weren't since
1. You refused to hammer ML scum. But you both thought he was scum?
2. I was hoping if I was crazy/pressured you both enough that not hammering ML scum was scummy that one of you would hammer. What else did I need to do to convince you when it was the only possibility?
3. Elmo said 'talk more', I said why it would be pointless and that he should hammer. I still think it is pointless since ML dead and a NK would tell us EVERYTHING. I kept saying a NK would tell us everything since, quite frankly, it would.

i.e. if 2 scum and SK, lynch scum, hope Mafia and scum kill each other. Only possibility for a town win.

If 2 scum and no SK, lynch ML-scum, 1 of non-ML players is killed. If it is LF who dies, then I get to think about you two since there can't be a SK. If LF doesn't die, then he is scum. Either way, talking doesn't help or do anything when ML HAS to die and thinking about tomorrow's lynch is pretty much pointless since WHO dies tells us who is guilty.

There were no other possibilities so my actions included everything. I believed there were 2 scum so I claimed SK to prevent my lynch and get LF's vote.

If the deadline wasn't a no lynch, town was guaranteed to win since:

If LF targeted anyone except me, he would be lynched.
If LF targeted me, he would be lynched.

If I died, flip town, Illumina and Elmo kill LF.

If I don't die, I am not SK, whoever is left (Elmo or Illumina) knows I am not SK or I can argue that I am not since I would have NKed someone and instantly won instead of dragging this game on and 'given them the chance' at winning. No SK means LF can't be neutral survivor, therefore he dies. gg.

All possibilities and outcomes point to town winning as long as ML was lynched. Once I reached that conclusion, I simply didn't care anymore.

Lynching LF first, 'may' be equivalent, but lynching ML first was certain victory to me; Lynching LF first, when he may have been SK and two scum left, was possible loss. ML lynch and NK reveals everything and town wins. So that is all I cared about and pushed for.

Corvuus

[Elmo]

You looking for a serious response to that post?

[Corvuus]

not really. If you want, you can.

It is already over and, if the rules were deadline lynch instead of deadline no lynch, then my view would have won and it wouldn't matter if you disagree or hate me since my 'scenario' would have played out and town would win. I only required ML to be lynched and someone to be NKed. That is it and my scenario included 2 scum, no SK and 2 scum and SK possibility and both resulted in a town win. I didn't need to worry about anything else.

I claimed SK because I believed LF to be lying, i.e. scum/SK and that I would get his vote and keep it by fakeclaiming SK and that, I was so obvious town that it simply wouldn't matter and Illumina would hammer obvious ML-scum. 2 votes out of 3 needed on ML. I just needed a hammer. Simple and easy. Once ML dies, night actions are played out, etc. etc.

If you have a serious response for why you thought it was ML-LF and you didn't hammer because I claimed SK, then I would listen to it. If anything else, I will simply ask you why you didn't hammer when I had already told you 'everything' several times and you didn't care?

I told you I don't believe LF's claim. I told you I won't (and I wouldn't) vote immediately in lylo but discuss things AFTER a NK was resolved. I told you pretty much everything and said I want ML-scum hammered and then things simplify themselves tremendously. If game didn't end and only 1 NK, then there is no SK. If there was SK, then town had a chance at winning. If there was no SK and LF didn't die, then he is scum. If LF did die, then I get to look at whoever remains. It is really quite simple and at that point, talking just complicates things. Why did you want to talk about possibility of SK or not? Killing ML and looking at Night actions answers it 100%. Why talk about things when 100% answers are all obtained by lynching obvious ML scum?

I couldn't say my exact reasoning since, if I did, then it would be pointless. If I told you I thought LF was lying and either SK or scum and that I claimed SK to get his vote on ML (either way is victory) and that by claiming SK, there is no possibility of LF and I being allied together, etc. etc., he may have unvoted, more to talk about, more to discuss when a ML hammer and night actions resolve = certain victory.

Why spend 2 weeks talking about 'nothing' when hammering and night actions would reveal everything? If I knew deadline would be no lynch instead of deadline lynch, then I probably would have played differently.

I assumed my vote and LF's vote on ML was enough to lynch him and that I didn't need to do anything else. If LF changed his vote, then my earlier threat (vote with me or die) would have taken place and I would lynch LF. Either way, I didn't want to spend 2 weeks 'talking' and discussing 'nothing' (which ended up happening?) when a ML lynch and a NK action would resolve everything BEYOND what we could possibly discuss.

When I said make your case on LF, you had to show me that LF was a 100% certain victory compared to ML's lynch being a 100% certain victory. It never happened, and I was fine with waiting for what I thought would be a ML deadline lynch. I didn't think I needed to convince you but technically, I don't think any of us knew about deadline = no lynch since none of us brought it up (did extension but that was it).

Sidenote: In all of my games, I have always supported extension and I thought deadline always resulted in a 'simple majority' lynch in terms of having the most votes on a player and not a real majority. If ML was lynched by a majority of having 2 votes, then town would have won since LF is scum, would not kill himself and whoever he killed, the remaining would have lynched him.

Corvuus