FFVII Mafia: Over

[Jebus]

Now why in the world would I say oogey boogey?

Vote: Alby Ramp

You didn't randomly vote, so I randomly voted for you

[Jebus]

Meaning you're not vanilla?

[Jebus]

I missed it, I guess. Gotta re-read now >.<

[Jebus]

Alright, I've read up on everything now, and

yeesh

.

@the Xotxm lynch - not quite a good one. He claimed a pro-town role. He seemed to bring upon the kamikaze-type thing. To a scum, a 1:1 death ratio is terrible, and there wouldn't be any initiative to do this on day 1. This is why I'm reluctant to vote Xotxm.

Vote: Arlmx

[Jebus]

unvote

Vote:Xtoxm

FoS:Those on the Armlx wagon

Seriously, did you read Xtoxm's posts? He is the best lynch by a long shot. We can at least (marginally) verify ABR's counter-claim and gain a better read on Armlx (who is reading incredibly pro-town to me at the moment). I'm a bit concerned about some of the backpedalling that was done, will take another read before the day is out to see if there's anything to be gleaned in that regard.

I did indeed read Xotxm's posts. All of them. And I'm torn now between ABR (I find his jump into that claim a little iffy), Xotxm (obvious), and armlx (Xotxm's claim, which seems an unlikely coincidence, or something).

unvote

for now.

And if Xotxm is at L-1, should I hammer? (and yes, I'm going to wait for an at least decent reason to)

[Jebus]

I don't remember armlx claiming. I'll go back and look, but if someone could repost that, or if armlx claimed, that would be great.

[Jebus]

I don't remember armlx claiming. I'll go back and look, but if someone could repost that, or if armlx claimed, that would be great.

Oh? Why do you think he should claim in this situation?

It's not really important that he do so, it'd just help me decide whether or not to hammer-vote Xotxm or not.

[Jebus]

@Cavebear - I confirm that Xotxm is at L-1

[Jebus]

Vote: ABR

If you're not a cop, who are you?

[Jebus]

And how do we know that you're not doing this 'ABR' gambit as scum for once? (eg, you were town all the other times, but now you're doing it as scum?)

Also, I assume Cid is a minor character. If so, it's quite possible there is no such role named Cid.

[Jebus]

Unvote

for now. I'm still somewhat against ABR right now, but he's sorta right; according to the wiki, Cid is at least mentioned in each FF game, and seems like he's somewhat major. Since he's a major character, it'd be more likely that there is such a role, so if someone else is Cid, please call it out.

And if you're fake-claiming again, ABR, tell us your

real

role.

[Jebus]

Vote: Armlx

Specifically at post 603 where it seems to me that he's pushing for the ABR lynch (and if I'm wrong, please tell me.)

I don't really get how ABR can think this, but he's claimed a pro-town power role under the alias of a semi-major and recurrent character (according to wiki), and since no one's countered, I'm willing to believe his claim for now.

His case against Yosarian seems legitamate as well, though I'm not sure I'm willing to go with ABR on that ~

[Jebus]

Not to mention, Jebus, that Albert has already admitted that the power role claim was a complete lie...

Which one, the day-cop one or the Cid one?

[Jebus]

Not to mention, Jebus, that Albert has already admitted that the power role claim was a complete lie...

Which one, the day-cop one or the Cid one?

being as it said "Power role" and the fact that if you read the posts you would see ABR admitted the day-cop was a lie, but the Cid role was not.

I still think your vote for Armlx is way too weak and not very valid at all.

FoS Jebus

I did, I just thought there might have been something else because Yos2 said that he said his power-claim was a lie after I said he claimed Cid.

And I meant to

unvote

Armlx in my last post, by the way. Still FoS though.

@ABR: Bruce Wayne doesn't stir up all this trouble. There's not too much similarity here at all. You're just plain distracting, and even if I believed your Cid claim, I still might vote you for this.

@Kloud: Agreed.

[Jebus]

@ABR: Bruce Wayne doesn't stir up all this trouble. There's not too much similarity here at all. You're just plain distracting, and even if I believed your Cid claim, I still might vote you for this.

This is a horrible way of thinking. If you believed his claim of CID, of all people, you'd still vote for him? Where does that make sense? Would you do it simply to get a sense of revenge for Xtoxm or something?[/quote]
No, like I said, I'd vote him because he's distracting.

[Jebus]

Not quite. I meant that if his play for the rest of the day and on distracts the town to a point where it's ridiculous, I'm willing to vote him, even if I believe he's town.

[Jebus]

@Natirisha - What do you think of CallMeLiam, ABR, Yosarian, and armlx right now?

[Jebus]

I'm back.

In particular I'm looking at DynamoXI, Natirasha, Grimmy, MBPikamon, TonyMontana. (eg, I'm re-reading.)

[Jebus]

I also noticed that really weird quote from Tony that I see IIAUN has pointed out for me. I think it may in fact be a slip, 'cause really... what the heck could he be thinking to say something that ridiculous as town? And he doesn't really seem to have offered much of anything in the way of explanation...

...I feel much more comfortable voting Tony right now. I would have found him suspicious even without that apparent slip, I think.

QFT

Pretty much, I 100% agree with above.

If xtoxm really is a cop, and he really got a guilty armlx, he's insane at best. In which case, he would still be our best lynch.

There's no way to know anyone else's role in a game unless you're on the same team or a cop (this excludes traitors and insane cops). Which makes me think
And

Vote: Tony

Now now, ABR lied to save armlx, you can't fault him for having gratitude. -.-

Which makes me FoS: armlx

[Jebus]

As for the others, I didn't see much of DynamoXI or MBPikamon. What I did see of Grimmy didn't seem scummy at all, and Natirisha hasn't really sparked my interest either.

Triple post ftw.

[Jebus]

Which makes me FoS: armlx

What's the connection?

FoS can mean two things for me. One is the literal meaning, one means "come back and look at this, it may be relevant sometime soon". This one happens to be number two.

[Jebus]

While I do agree the CML case has substantial ground, I think the one against TM is slightly stronger. I will switch over a day or two before the deadline if the TM vote doesn't gain numbers, but I'd still like to see TM go. His is a genuine slip-up, or so it seems to me.

[Jebus]

Unvote
Vote: CML

As I said I would, since we're approaching deadline. If the deadline could be extended for CML to post some defense on this, I'd appreciate it, but for now, since nobody's going with Tony, this'll have to do.

@Post above: Irrelevant?

[Jebus]

@CarnCarn:

unvote

for now. I'm not really sure anymore. I'm still a little concerned at the possibility of lynching a pro-town power role, even if it isn't the most useful of claimed abilities (which also makes me think he isn't scum).

[Jebus]

re-vote: CallMeLiam

Back here again, to even this back to a L-1 stalemate. Personally, I think TonyMontana is scum, but I don't think we'll have time to get enough votes on him before deadline.

As for why I didn't hammer ABR, despite his befuddling play, his claim of a tracker, a particularly weak power role, makes me think he's not quite scum. It may be basic, but I've gotta stick to them on this one :/

[Jebus]

Nat, I'm not sure I see what you see in CD's post

And

Vote: TonyMontana

, for all the reasons I said yesterday.

[Jebus]

@Nat: I see. It definitely warrants a valid vote on CD, though I still find TM to be a bit more scummy.

Just a thought... four kills = four killing roles/groups. We know one is mafia, one is probably an SK, and one is probably a vig. What's the last one, though? This is the current thing right now that's got me off a bit :/

CPR Doc maybe? Second Mafia? Second SK? Second Vig?

[Jebus]

MBL: Where'd you get five scum? The normal scum to town ration is between 1:3 and 1:4. We had 26 people total. Probably more like 8 scum to begin with, plus (probable) third party scum. I'm going to take a stab at this (lol, bad pun) and say we've got 9 scum overall, and most likely a townie vig. Each side has taken a one man hit, so that puts them at 2-3 people each. It'd be better to say the larger one, though I hope I'm wrong. And then we still have that pesky SK.

So a maximum of 7-8 scum out of 17. While we as town still hold the majority, it may become a problem if we can't kill off a scum group completely today, and hopefully have the vig kill tonight. If we can't pull off a lynch on a scum today, and our doc (and if (S)he's already been killed and I missed it, yipes) doesn't save a townie, we lose the majority, and become the uninformed minority, with 7-8 scum/16, and three scum kills at night (+ our vig kill), putting scum levels at 6-8/12-13.

Though since I've omitted the possibility that one scum group hits another, we may be at a scramble period, or we may be just fine.

And then we get to something else MBL said: Cops. Chances are we've got more than one. If any cops/investigative roles have found someone who is scum, it wouldn't be a bad idea to claim now/soon and point out the scum (just don't be an Xotxm about it). Basically, this paragraph is to agree with what MBL said in the last paragraph of the above post

Basically, with these scum groups, it'd be best just to go after scum in general. There's a decent chance scum groups will eliminate each other. Also, I'm pretty sure the SK is getting to the point where his/her interests align with townie interest; ie. killing scum. While it may be a good idea to get rid of the SK to lower the kill count, it may also be beneficial to have a second killing role going after scum. Though I'm not really sure that mafia and SK's are distinct from the vanilla townie point of view. Either way, just a thought.

[Jebus]

Yipes, long post

[Jebus]

Reread from yesterday. I'll try to go back and quote the basis for my vote...

[Jebus]

I never said I wanted it to happen, I just that it wouldn't be a bad idea.

And @ my last post: Page 33 has the reasoning marked out pretty well, though some of it isn't valid anymore. Still, it's enough for a vote by me.

Really, my holdup was on which of the ABR-Lynch supporters to vote for, as IAUN said. You happened to be the scummiest looking one, in my eyes. And it didn't help you much when you switched from ABR to CML after the above was pointed out, either.

[Jebus]

@Yos2: I sorta believed ABR's claim, actually. Cid, according to wiki, is a semi-major character (well, he appears in every Final Fantasy title, anyway), and there was no counterclaim. In addition, he claimed to be a tracker. Trackers really aren't as useful to the town as a cop, doc, or vig would be, so I was a little less suspicious of him.

[Jebus]

Unvote

Da~~~mn . I honestly didn't think a claim would come to much.

@MBL - CarnCarn doesn't really seem too scummy in my eyes, though I'll go back and check his claim.

As for Natirisha, I've got a slight inclination towards Nat on this one. Your case has weight, but I think his defense is equally strong.

Now, I got the reasoning behind those two, care to explain IAUN, Yos2, Myself, and Cephrir?

And overall, you seem jumpy

[Jebus]

[quote ="MrBuddyLee"]Point by point:
1) His agenda is selfish. Scum are more likely to be self-oriented than town.
2) He doesn't care about the alignment of other people. Scum are less likely to be curious about alignments--they just want to survive.
3) He's defensive. Scum are more likely to be defensive than town--town go on the offensive to catch scum.

So what exactly is strong about Nat's defense, Jebus?[/quote]
1) Selfish agenda doesn't always mean scum. And coming out and saying this isn't really much of a tell of anything, there's a good chance it's how Nat would be in real life (face it, how many selfless people do you know? I can only think of one :/).
2) Where'd this conclusion come from?
3) I'm vanilla. You accuse me of being scum. I have two choices - don't defend myself, and get lynched, or defend myself and (according to your idea that defensiveness = scum), I'd still be lynched. Not a very good way to think. Mafia is a fun game, survival should be an incentive of every player - it's no fun to be lynched out of a game, scum or not. Scum just happen to have this as a priority over helping their side, as town would.

And sometimes, votes don't go through because there are voteblocking roles. There's no harm in adding an extra to making sure it goes through, especially close to deadline.

Never heard of a voteblocking role, sorry.


Again, too jumpy. Take no shortcuts in your reasoning.

[Jebus]

The vote-buying role is a politician, which is different than a vote-blocking role. With the politician, someone doesn't get a vote, while someone else gets two. With a blocked vote, one vote would 'disappear'.

And yep, I agree that talking about this imaginary role that MBL brought up is pointless.

@iam - That wasn't a claim, it was a hypothetical situation.

@MBL - I defended Nat because he's not playing any different in this game than other games I've played/am playing in with him.

That, and the fact that most of your arguments about him seem weak :/

[Jebus]

Also, please note that

Jebus

dropped off the radar after I pointed out that, bizarrely, he's defending Natirasha for no apparent reason. I originally thought Jebus was suspicious for a few reasons, including:

@Natirisha - What do you think of CallMeLiam, ABR, Yosarian, and armlx right now?

This looks like scum trying to set someone up for a fall--a curious choice of names, and why's Yosarian2 in there? Oh, here's why:

I'm still somewhat against ABR right now... His(ABR's) case against Yosarian seems legitamate as well, though I'm not sure I'm willing to go with ABR on that ~

So Jebus:
a) doesn't trust Albert
b) but likes Albert's case on Yos enough to mention it specifically
c) then adds Yos to the list of people to trip Nat up with

My theory here was that Jebus may be scum with Yos and Liam and distancing very sloppily. He slipped their names into the list of questions for Nat, hoping Nat would go on record protecting at least one scumbag. And the other two names Jebus spit out were people he suspected of being on the opposite scumteam: armlx and ABR.

Jebus REALLY wanted Tony dead yesterday, but then drew attention to his vote for Liam (distancing) while virtually begging Liam to defend himself:

vote: Liam as I said I would, since we're approaching deadline. If the deadline could be extended for CML to post some defense on this, I'd appreciate it, but for now, since nobody's going with Tony, this'll have to do.

Weird behavior surrounding Yosarian and Liam makes Jebus a

Shinra

candidate. There is a hitch in these two theories, but a lot of it looks curious enough to investigate further.

1) CML - I put him in there for the obvious reason.
2) ABR - I put him in because of his contraversial play, and because I wanted a second opinion on top of my own.
3) Yos2 - I put him in for the reason you quoted, because ABR's case was legitamite. In addition, your case on him is legitimate as well.
4) Armlx - I put him in because of what ABR and Xotxm did on day 1. Curiousity moreso than scumhunting.

[Jebus]

I didn't really think too much of the Liam lynch, I just thought it a better lynch than ABR, for the reasons I said earlier.

[Jebus]

Now what do you mean by the above post?

And was it just me, or did the first half come over as scummy?

[Jebus]

In that case,

unvote

if I was voting anyone, and

Vote: Zakeri

I feel it's well worth putting pressure in that direction.

[Jebus]

If Cloud is the person you control when you play, aka a major character, wouldn't it

not

be a safeclaim? Eg, wouldn't there be an actual role with that name? (which is why I was so quick to unvote TM)

[Jebus]

Yeah, you don't vote someone just to have a bandwagon, especially if you haven't read the game yet.

QFT

So yeah, Lowell, why Zakeri over Empking (or anyone else for that matter)?

[Jebus]

Unvote
Vote: Lowell

I like Zakeri's claim, and whether or not it's true, I think we'll need a cop to get through.

[Jebus]

Mod, Vote Count please?

[Jebus]

I recounted the votes, I'm pretty sure that was the hammer.

[Jebus]

I beg to differ. There's no need to get rid of the Sk or Shinra right now. We need to focus on Turks. I assume there was four to begin with, just cause that's a common number for mafia when there's 30 players and two+ mafia + serial killers + vig.

If there's only one shinra left, then in essence we've got an SK. So two Sk's, lets say. Either way, the main goal of the SK and Shinra should be aligned with the town at the moment. Shinra and the Sk need to get rid of all other killing groups because those killing groups hold a larger threat to themselves than a possible lynching.

Think about it. We've got 13 people left. 2-3 of them are turks, one is Sephiroth the SK, one or two are Shinra. 4-6/13 are scum. We're not gonna win if the scum don't hit each other. While I agree it may be a good idea to lower the kill count, killing the SK or Shinra who might hit the reletively unscathed Turks isn't really going to help us. So both of the things MBL said were not pro-town thinking could easily be pro-town thinking.

@iam - My mention of MBPikamon and DynamoXI wasn't random. In that post they were grouped with a few other people. I FoS'd all of them because they were all voting for ABR, and that wagon to me seemed to be scum-powered. So not completely random.

[Jebus]

It's easier to alter the flow a little than to go completely against it :/

We've got 13. I think Iam's right, we're most likely looking at a 7town, ~3turks, 1-2shinra, 1Sephiroth situation. So 7,3,2,1. It's impossible to win this by managing to only lynch scum. We need to keep all the killing factions in the game. None of the scum groups (hopefully) knows about the other groups, so we'll assume that outside of the particular scumgroup is fair game. So the Turks have a 3/10 chance of hitting scum, the Shinra have a 4/11 chance of hitting scum, and Sephiroth has a 5/12 chance of hitting scum, so the overall chance of hitting scum is about 1/2, according to my rough head-math. Those'r pretty good odds of hitting scum. Take away either the Shinra (which could be either one or two left) or Sephiroth, and the overall odds of scum hitting scum greatly decreases to an overall chance of about 1/3, again according to my rough head-math. However, killing a turk today (or a shinra if there are two left) doesn't do anything to the odds, and still lessens the scumcount.

So based on my (very-rough) calculations, we're best off going for turks. 'kay?

[Jebus]

If its 9-2-1-1, is it still better to lynch turks (in your opinion)?

Not nearly as much. In that case, the group of two scum isn't as much of a threat to us as the three scumkills. The chance of the scum killing scum goes way down as well, and the chances presented there don't exactly help us to get more scum dead.

@MBL - 10 scum in a 26 person game is very well balanced - there's a very good chance of scum hitting scum (and in fact, in previous large games I've played in with two scum teams, it's a goal for one scum team to get rid of another.), which when coupled with the vigs and Sk's, balances out nicely, as I've seen.

Also, Yosarian agrees with my logic, it appears. Why are you not suspicious of that?

I'm not at all trying to confuse and befuddle the town. I'm hypothesizing in order to get the best course of action for us to win.

And before I go any further, tell me how the hell my recent posts were complete bs? (this one goes out to CarnCarn and MBL)

[Jebus]

If my belief (that there's a good chance we're actually at

7:3:2:1

) is correct, then whatever we do, we'll have to rely on crosskills to have a chance

*facepalm*

Are large games really running at 40% scum these days? Maybe I've been out of the loop for too long, but I thought 33% was already pretty daunting for town.

Yes... when the scum are for the most part on the same team. The general rule for one scum team is 1:3.5 scum-town, or with the SK, 1:3 scum-town. When you add two scum teams (or even more), things can get really messy, and tons of flexibility is possible.

[Jebus]

I'm 50/50 on the claim. Sure it will give scum a harder time hiding amongst the townies, but I'm not sure it's such a good idea to out our power roles, we'll probably need them :s

[Jebus]

I'll make this short and sweet, and not just restate logic already posted in my own words.

I agree with CarnCarn 1675. Especially "The logic in 1670 seemed forced"

unvote
Vote: IAUN

[Jebus]

Cavebear's last post on site is dated Monday, November 17th.

Night 3 began on Sunday, November 23rd.

So apparently, almost an entire week after apparently dissapearing for good, Cavebear logged on just long enough to send in an investigation. Interesting.

This is the only part of the argument that I'm conceding, but it's a damn good one none-the-less.

+1

And this is what tips me over the fence.

As far as I know, from my modding experience, unless I say otherwise, night abilities that someone forgets to send to me don't happen.

unvote: IAUN
Vote: MM

[Jebus]

And as MBL said, I'm also iffy on Yos2 (and needless to say, MM), their posts wreak of "oshi* I'm screwed"

[Jebus]

Good point Carn, we should deal with that tomorrow. Same with the lack of second Mafia kill -

looks like Shinra has been disabled?

Now lets get to more lynching of scum?

I smell scum slip-up. Would vote if Iam wasn't such obvscum.

Vote: Iam

[Jebus]

(Note: Bold in the quote was my doing, to point it out)

[Jebus]

I'm going to take that as "oshi* they've got me".

unvote
Vote: cd

[Jebus]

I wouldn't have voted you if not for this (post 1773):

Horseshit.

Assuming that Shinra were disabled out of three scumgroups tells me that you're thinking something like "Oh, I know that their kill didn't get through because (a) my group's kill got through or (b) my groups kill didn't get through."

1773 didn't exactly lighten anything :/

I'm perfectly happy voting Iam if you can explain this. Both of you are most definitely scum, though, in my eyes.

[Jebus]

I said "Horseshit" because I felt your suspicion was exactly that.

I assumed Shinra's kill didn't go through because as was broached yesterday that might have been their final scum kill [having gone through on the death of Scarlet]. I'm simply carrying an idea forward from the day before.

Well, thanks for that then.

unvote
Vote: Iam

[Jebus]

Anyway, I investigated christiano drago, but the result came as such a surprise to me since I have him completely pegged as Shinra. He turned up Innocent...

Maybe an NK/investigation-proof Godfather/SK?

Don't be too quick to eliminate possibilities, now.

[Jebus]

And didn't we already hammer?

[Jebus]

I'd like to finish this one.

[Jebus]

So day now?

[Jebus]

ohi der.

I don't have time to check back at my non-existent notes (aka read up on recent stuff that the mod-limbo period caused), but I'll check in later tomorrow/tuesday. Deadline isn't for a while, I didn't see, so it shouldn't be too big a deal.

[Jebus]

Ahh, crap.

Bai then.

[Jebus]

Meh... I guess I'll mention what I was thinking. It's only relevant if there are two scum, and if there are game's almost definitely over one way or the other tonight. Basically, I noticed that the Turks and Shinra each claimed an AVALANCHE member, so I was thinking there might be some parallels between their safeclaims. There's one other detail that goes with that that I don't see any reason to remind anyone of, that I sort of mentioned before (not today)

By the way, this was exactally right; I had an awesome safeclaim, Tifa Lockhart. For that very reason, though, I wasn't going to claim it if we did a mass claim; it seemed too obvious that it was a fake-claim, especally assuming the other scum group's godfather also had an awesome fake claim; rather if we had mass-claimed, I would have claimed some minor role.

I was actually going to claim that in half defense of Empking. I was too slow, though :/

Well played, Cephrir.