FFVII Mafia: Over

[christiano drago]

Nat, I'm not sure I see what you see in CD's post :.

He said that, since ABR said he didn't do anything night one, it should be obvious his role, totally ignoring the possibility of a mafia goon who didn't kill.

Why on earth would a Mafia Goon not kill on N1?

Letting the townies get a head start?

When you suggested A potential "Vanilla Scum" I thought that might have been something I hadn't come across before and was willing to concede it would be a possibility, but the idea of a player with a night kill not using it when his MO is ridding the game of townies?

Are you suggesting that I'm a goon who predicted he would be tracked and deliberately gave up a night kill because of it?

Really Nat... that doesn't seem likely to me. But again, I'm new to the MS forums so it's possible that's the usual for around here and I've just not happened upon it yet.

I will point out that your case is really just that I never targeted anyone on night one though. Which is a bit weak in anyone's book, really.

[CarnCarn]

Wow, there goes the whole bulletproof ABR theory. Someone really must have been fishing around to RB Westbrook N1 or protect ABR.

IAAUN, I don't know that I should really delve into specifics of who I was targeting at this point, as I was roleblocked.

Hmm, as for a vote. The most suspicious people from yesterday are now dead, and surprisingly were town. I'm not sure what to make of TM's last minute shift from ABR to CML, even if it did end up lynching scum. Was he just doing it to bus a teammate? It was pretty scummy, especially after confirming his vote against ABR just a few posts before.
So, yeah, I think I will

Vote: Tony Montana

[CarnCarn]

cd, in most mafia games I've played/read, the mafia submit the kill using only one person on their team to do the kill. That way, the others appear to have "been at home"

[wolframnhart]

Edit: Whoops, I didn't see Kloud's name up there. Guess I was right about that.

Vote: MBL

I'll take a look through the topic again, and see if anything sticks out.

why exactly the vote there Zakeri if you are going to be looking to see if anything sticks out?

[christiano drago]

cd, in most mafia games I've played/read, the mafia submit the kill using only one person on their team to do the kill. That way, the others appear to have "been at home"

Ah... I've only really been in a game with Three or Four scum at a time in one group, and they all tended to have some form of night-role [RB, Janitor, Goon, Doctor].

If this is set up so that there is at least one idle scum per night then I'll concede that not targeting anyone means relatively little to people who are suspicious of me.

[CarnCarn]

Well, from the two scum that have been lynched, iLord and CML, one was a Goon and another was a Roleblocker, so it's possible that multiple scum from the same team could be "not at home" on any given night.
But yeah, your argument that just because you were at home means you are not scum is too much of a leap (AFAIK, Goons usually don't have night actions, unless they are the ones doing the kill).

[Zakeri]

Edit: Whoops, I didn't see Kloud's name up there. Guess I was right about that.

Vote: MBL

I'll take a look through the topic again, and see if anything sticks out.

why exactly the vote there Zakeri if you are going to be looking to see if anything sticks out?

Because I've already pointed out the three people I think deserve a heavy look at. I admit, it was partially bandwagoning, but I see no reason to remove my vote until I've confirmed to myself that I'm certain he's not worth the day's lynch.

[Yosarian2]

And thus, the regret of a thousand "I told you so"s rains down upon those who pushed for a policy lynch in a tsunami of lies.

FOS. At least, until you can point out exactally where anyone was pushing for a "policy lynch",or who lied in order to get Albert lynched. I also don't like this line:

Likewise, We can't trust the result on CD because he was blocked.

...who was blocked? And by who?

[Zakeri]

You guys know from the trackers own mouth that I didn't move on Night One - and if I didn't move, it's reasonably easy to assume what my role is likely to be. Mind you Zak is claiming that's not trusted, because he apparently got blocked... I don't buy that since he would have been told he was blocked, surely, he wouldn't have been told I done nothing.

This is of course, under the assumption that ABR was Vigged and survived by a doctor protect, which is of course what CarnCarn confirmed himself with a name and roleclaim. Judging from Yuffie's role, I'm guessing she protected and role blocked ABR.

although, I suppose the two actions aren't tied together like I originally thought. If it was, I suppose she would have been called the Jailor.

[CarnCarn]

I won't be voting ABR right now because I _still_ don't think that he is scum, however I'm still giving him a major FoS because, like other people, the fact that he was most likely Cid was protecting him.

Hmm, I wonder about the meaning of this in retrospect. Also, I wonder if the Roleblock and Doctor abilities are separate (although I know we probably won't get a definite answer until the end).
And, apparently, even if Cludsy did protect ABR N1, he didn't protect him N2 (as evidenced by the kill on ABR going through). But this again begs the question of whether he did in fact protect ABR N1.

[Jebus]

@Nat: I see. It definitely warrants a valid vote on CD, though I still find TM to be a bit more scummy.

Just a thought... four kills = four killing roles/groups. We know one is mafia, one is probably an SK, and one is probably a vig. What's the last one, though? This is the current thing right now that's got me off a bit :/

CPR Doc maybe? Second Mafia? Second SK? Second Vig?

[Riceballtail]

Hey, I'm here, reading, etc.

[MrBuddyLee]

There are two mafia groups and an SK, most likely. Look at the flavor and colors of the dead scum in the first post. Shinra and Turk, if my memory serves me right. Recall that Liam told us to look on his wagon for Turks--that may very well mean his scumpartners were avoiding voting for him. I doubt he'd have us give extra scrutiny to his scumbuddies like that, so they were probably coming up with excuses not to vote Liam.

Pretty sure CarnCarn nailed ABR, which is a bit odd considering he only had a 1/4 chance of doing so. Possible serial killer? If he's the SK, there's a vig out there most likely.

My guess is two three-man mafia teams, all with powers. That means c. drago is likely vanilla town.

Each team probably has a GF, a tracker/watcher, and a roleblocker.

Great news: no pro-town cops dead!

5 scum left out of 17 remaining, not terrible.

Pretty crazy that all kills managed to avoid Cludsy's protect/roleblock. Hopefully we have another pro-town tracker/watcher who can guide us today. Two days worth of results is not a terrible time to claim if you think you have scum dead to rights, especially considering there are three scumteams and we really need to eliminate one of them to cut down on the number of nightkills.

[MrBuddyLee]

And by the way, I doubt there was a successful protect N1 seeing as how there were four kills both nights. Five kills a night would be a bit of a spastic game, don't you think?

If I was Cludsy the doc, I think I'd have protected CarnCarn last night. But if he was forced to roleblock the person he protected, maybe not, since CarnCarn claimed investigative powers.

edit: whoa, CarnCarn claims to have been roleblocked. That would mean we have another vig out there for sure if Carn is telling the truth. Possibly three scumgroups of two, I suppose.

If Carn IS telling the truth, then all scum probably have powers, as I doubt a pro-town rb would have blocked CarnCarn. If CarnCarn is telling the truth, then this game has the potential for 5 NKs a night, which is more than I think I've ever seen in a game. Curious.

CarnCarn, do you think scum or town roleblocked you?

[Jebus]

MBL: Where'd you get five scum? The normal scum to town ration is between 1:3 and 1:4. We had 26 people total. Probably more like 8 scum to begin with, plus (probable) third party scum. I'm going to take a stab at this (lol, bad pun) and say we've got 9 scum overall, and most likely a townie vig. Each side has taken a one man hit, so that puts them at 2-3 people each. It'd be better to say the larger one, though I hope I'm wrong. And then we still have that pesky SK.

So a maximum of 7-8 scum out of 17. While we as town still hold the majority, it may become a problem if we can't kill off a scum group completely today, and hopefully have the vig kill tonight. If we can't pull off a lynch on a scum today, and our doc (and if (S)he's already been killed and I missed it, yipes) doesn't save a townie, we lose the majority, and become the uninformed minority, with 7-8 scum/16, and three scum kills at night (+ our vig kill), putting scum levels at 6-8/12-13.

Though since I've omitted the possibility that one scum group hits another, we may be at a scramble period, or we may be just fine.

And then we get to something else MBL said: Cops. Chances are we've got more than one. If any cops/investigative roles have found someone who is scum, it wouldn't be a bad idea to claim now/soon and point out the scum (just don't be an Xotxm about it). Basically, this paragraph is to agree with what MBL said in the last paragraph of the above post

Basically, with these scum groups, it'd be best just to go after scum in general. There's a decent chance scum groups will eliminate each other. Also, I'm pretty sure the SK is getting to the point where his/her interests align with townie interest; ie. killing scum. While it may be a good idea to get rid of the SK to lower the kill count, it may also be beneficial to have a second killing role going after scum. Though I'm not really sure that mafia and SK's are distinct from the vanilla townie point of view. Either way, just a thought.

[Jebus]

Yipes, long post

[CarnCarn]

MBL, idk; if Cludsy's role is similar to a jailor (protect + RB), then it could be either town or scum who RB'd.

Jebus, pretty sure there are 2 mafia groups (at least), Turks and Shinra from the dead scum iLord and CML.

[Empking]

There are two mafia groups and an SK, most likely. Look at the flavor and colors of the dead scum in the first post. Shinra and Turk, if my memory serves me right. Recall that Liam told us to look on his wagon for Turks--that may very well mean his scumpartners were avoiding voting for him. I doubt he'd have us give extra scrutiny to his scumbuddies like that, so they were probably coming up with excuses not to vote Liam.

Pretty sure CarnCarn nailed ABR, which is a bit odd considering he only had a 1/4 chance of doing so. Possible serial killer? If he's the SK, there's a vig out there most likely.

My guess is two three-man mafia teams, all with powers. That means c. drago is likely vanilla town.

Each team probably has a GF, a tracker/watcher, and a roleblocker.

Great news: no pro-town cops dead!

5 scum left out of 17 remaining, not terrible.

Pretty crazy that all kills managed to avoid Cludsy's protect/roleblock. Hopefully we have another pro-town tracker/watcher who can guide us today. Two days worth of results is not a terrible time to claim if you think you have scum dead to rights, especially considering there are three scumteams and we really need to eliminate one of them to cut down on the number of nightkills.

Would you mind exolaining how you worked that out?

[Lowell]

Hi all. I'm replacing someone or another. Will read and astound you all with my prescience.

[TonyMontana]

I'm not sure what to make of TM's last minute shift from ABR to CML, even if it did end up lynching scum. Was he just doing it to bus a teammate? It was pretty scummy, especially after confirming his vote against ABR just a few posts before.
So, yeah, I think I will

Vote: Tony Montana

In a 12-vote dead heat race, a bus by me is far fetched. My vote change had one reason alone: CML was more likely to be scum.

I'm seeing alot of votes racking up on me very early, yet very few reasons given. Kinda hard to defend myself from a baseless wagon.

[Jebus]

Reread from yesterday. I'll try to go back and quote the basis for my vote...

[TonyMontana]

If any cops/investigative roles have found someone who is scum, it wouldn't be a bad idea to claim now/soon and point out the scum

A bit early to out our cops, dontchathink?

[Yosarian2]

I'm not sure what to make of TM's last minute shift from ABR to CML, even if it did end up lynching scum. Was he just doing it to bus a teammate? It was pretty scummy, especially after confirming his vote against ABR just a few posts before.
So, yeah, I think I will

Vote: Tony Montana

In a 12-vote dead heat race, a bus by me is far fetched. My vote change had one reason alone: CML was more likely to be scum.

I'm seeing alot of votes racking up on me very early, yet very few reasons given. Kinda hard to defend myself from a baseless wagon.

Want to explain why yesterday, you were pushing the ABR wagon yesterday, then suddenly switched to the CML wagon, and when asked you just flatly refused to explain why? This comment, especally, makes me think you could have been distancing scum who already knew CML was scum:

No matter how CML/ABR flips, I expect scrutiny tomorrow anyways, so if you got beef then take it up then....

Makes me think you already knew how they were going to flip...

You did later make some comment about you would rather lynch a vanillia then a tracker, but that only makes sense if they were both telling the truth; personally, I didn't think either one was yesterday, and I think most of the town thought the same thing.

[Jebus]

I never said I wanted it to happen, I just that it wouldn't be a bad idea.

And @ my last post: Page 33 has the reasoning marked out pretty well, though some of it isn't valid anymore. Still, it's enough for a vote by me.

Really, my holdup was on which of the ABR-Lynch supporters to vote for, as IAUN said. You happened to be the scummiest looking one, in my eyes. And it didn't help you much when you switched from ABR to CML after the above was pointed out, either.

[Jebus]

@Yos2: I sorta believed ABR's claim, actually. Cid, according to wiki, is a semi-major character (well, he appears in every Final Fantasy title, anyway), and there was no counterclaim. In addition, he claimed to be a tracker. Trackers really aren't as useful to the town as a cop, doc, or vig would be, so I was a little less suspicious of him.