FFVII Mafia: Over

[armlx]

armlx, when a player is as acutely aware of their own meta as ABR apparently is, can you actually use that meta in any useful way?

Yes, to show a null tell. You can't use it as a town tell obviously, but null definitely works.

Put another way, has Albert ever screwed the town over THIS MUCH by his lying as town?

Xtoxm's fault, not his.

And you auto-assume the doc protected him after xtoxm turned up not scum? Given his history?

And CC, 10-10 is where you don't want a claim, as having both claim is pointless as odds are both aren't in danger of a lynch. The goal is to wait to see who gets pushed to claim.

[Empking]

CML: You're on L-1 claim.

[CarnCarn]

Cavebear alert

[kloud1516]

armlx, when a player is as acutely aware of their own meta as ABR apparently is, can you actually use that meta in any useful way?

Yes, to show a null tell. You can't use it as a town tell obviously, but null definitely works.

Put another way, has Albert ever screwed the town over THIS MUCH by his lying as town?

Xtoxm's fault, not his.

And you auto-assume the doc protected him after xtoxm turned up not scum? Given his history?

And CC, 10-10 is where you don't want a claim, as having both claim is pointless as odds are both aren't in danger of a lynch. The goal is to wait to see who gets pushed to claim.

1) I feel that this goes back to the fact that ABR could have very well just listed the reasonings for finding xtoxm suspicious earlier in Day 2 as opposed to fake-claiming Day cop. You deem this as xtoxm's fault simply because, had he not been lynched, it would have been you that would be dead. To me, I feel that we have been screwed over by ABR much more than by xtoxm's fake claim, as has continued his antics and proved to be unhelpful even after Day 1.

2) It isn't like we could trust a claim from ABR any ways. CML is at L-1, so he needs to claim.

[CarnCarn]

And CC, 10-10 is where you don't want a claim, as having both claim is pointless as odds are both aren't in danger of a lynch. The goal is to wait to see who gets pushed to claim.

Ah, I see. Although this may be another unique case. CML needs to claim now because he is at L-1, and ABR needs to make a case for why shouldn't be vig bait tonight (at least, I would think that would be in his benefit).

[Dead Rikimaru]

Vote Count Number Seventeen: The "cosplay" Votecount

CallMeLiam - 11

(

Albert B. Rampage, wolframnhart, armlx, Cludsy, Empking, Zakeri, Natirasha, iamausername, Cephrir, Ghostwriter, Jebus

)

Albert B. Rampage - 10

(

DynamoXI, Grimmy, MBPikamon, TonyMontana, MrBuddyLee, Christiano Drago, Yosarian2, CarnCarn, CallMeLiam, kloud1516

)

TonyMontana - 1

(

Cavebear with a toothache

)

Natirasha - 0

kloud1516 - 0

MBPikamon - 0

Zakeri - 0

armlx - 0

iamausername - 0

wolframnhart - 0

Jebus - 0

Empking - 0

Cludsy - 0

Grimmy - 0
Yosarian2 - 0
Cephrir - 0
DynamoXI - 0
GhostWriter - 0
MrBuddyLee - 0
christiano drago - 0
CarnCarn - 0
Cavebear with a toothache - 0
Not Voting - 0

With 22 alive, it takes

12

to lynch.

[Cephrir]

We could use a claim. Like, really soon.

[MrBuddyLee]

Prepared to vote Liam if we don't get a claim soon.

[CarnCarn]

While I do agree the CML case has substantial ground, I think the one against TM is slightly stronger. I will switch over a day or two before the deadline if the TM vote doesn't gain numbers, but I'd still like to see TM go. His is a genuine slip-up, or so it seems to me.

I'm not entirely sure what the case against me is to be honest.
Anyway

vote: ABR

His actions yesterday were decidedly unhelpful and his back-and-forth claiming, unclaiming, asking for protection and general bullshit look like someone trying to stay alive by any means necessary without helping the town in the least.

Can the mod prod CML; he hasn't posted since 919, on Friday, and is L-1.

[Elias_the_thief]

REMINDER: Deadline falls on October 21st at 10 PM, Eastern Standard Time. As an additional reminder, there is no reduced majority at deadline. If normal majority is not reached, a no lynch will occur.

CML has been prodded. Searching for replacements for MBPikamon and DynamoIX.

[CallMeLiam]

I'm Jessie, from Avalanche. I'm vanilla and I'm still unsure why I'm at L-1. Most of the votes on me look very bandwagony and a coherent case still hasn't been presented. Obviously lynching me is better than no lynching, but lynching someone as obviously unhelpful and distracting as ABR would be better, since a good chunk of tomorrow will once again be dedicated to his lying and obfuscation.

[armlx]

1) I feel that this goes back to the fact that ABR could have very well just listed the reasonings for finding xtoxm suspicious earlier in Day 2 as opposed to fake-claiming Day cop. You deem this as xtoxm's fault simply because, had he not been lynched, it would have been you that would be dead. To me, I feel that we have been screwed over by ABR much more than by xtoxm's fake claim, as has continued his antics and proved to be unhelpful even after Day 1.

I would disagree with you. In the abstract you have to consider that between 66%-75% of the time in the abstract xtoxm's actions would have caused 2 mislynches, and of the remaining percentage would lead to his mislynch another half or so of the time or at the least draw doc protection. ABR's actions, however, had much more basis to assume xtoxm was scum and therefore had a higher "success" rate. Still was dumb, but xtoxm's actions had the lowest EV for the town of the two.

[Cephrir]

I'm Jessie, from Avalanche. I'm vanilla and I'm still unsure why I'm at L-1. Most of the votes on me look very bandwagony and a coherent case still hasn't been presented. Obviously lynching me is better than no lynching, but lynching someone as obviously unhelpful and distracting as ABR would be better, since a good chunk of tomorrow will once again be dedicated to his lying and obfuscation.

Happy with my vote.

[Cephrir]

And I don't just mean the claim. At all.

[Cephrir]

And I don't just mean the claim. At all.

[armlx]

What Cephrir said. The claim does nothing to change my opinions.

[CarnCarn]

Cephrir, armlx, what would have changed your vote?

No one has provided any thoughts on why ABR would have survived N1; it seems everyone thinks that he wouldn't have gotten the doc protection he asked for.
I was hoping not to have to do this, but I think it is probably a reasonable time.

I am Cait Sith, JoAT.

Using my Slots ability, I/Westbrook targeted ABR N1. By chance, it should have been a kill, but appears not to have gone through. I don't know why it didn't go through. It's possible I/Westbrook was RB'd, but I find it odd that WB would have been targeted for a roleblock given his low activity.
I don't know if this means ABR got doc protect or he is some NK immune character (Godfather or SK). If he is the latter, the "DOC PROTECT PLZ" is the perfect cover for his ability. I don't know about everyone else, but Cephrir and armlx's last two posts sound like scum vouching for a partner.

Anyway, I didn't want to have to reveal myself, but I think it's now necessary to make a stronger case for the ABR lynch, although his blatant lying and general scummy activity should have been more than enough. I don't understand why so many people buy into the meta propaganda distributed by armlx et al., when the meta only applies to ONE of ABR's actions (fake-claiming), while there are other anti-town behaviors that have no basis in meta.

Not sure if this claim will change the minds of the scum driving the CML wagon, but hopefully the town will reconsider today's lynch.

[armlx]

Hmm.

Worth considering. Still think the sheer amount of policy and not actually thinking ABR is scummy behind his wagon is worse.

[Zakeri]

Not to poke holes into your suspicions, but I don't think having a Vig fail on someone makes that someone scum. I would imagine, after what looks like five different killing powers at work here that at least a few people could somehow avoid getting unjustly vigged. He could be a Serial Killer, the Godfather, or just a bulletproof townie.

Or maybe the doctor's an idiot.

I trust your worries are honest, but there's nothing concrete about ABR's scummyness. I still vote for CallMeLiam's Lynch.

[Yosarian2]

I'd say that there's about a 60% chance ABR is scum, most likely SK

Yeah, move that up to like 90% now. I've been arguing all day that ABR's play makes the most sense if he's a NK immune SK, and now it looks like he's probably NK immune. Can we please lynch him now?

[GhostWriter]

His play makes no sense as scum, as why would he choose now, and this early in the game, to ruin a long standing meta as strong as that?

[CarnCarn]

His play makes no sense as scum, as why would he choose now, and this early in the game, to ruin a long standing meta as strong as that?

I think MBL has put this belief to question. When someone knows how their own meta is perceived by others, they can manipulate around it. Even armlx has said above that it is only a null-tell, not a town tell.
The whole argument that ABR's meta = town is shaky.

[armlx]

Ok, then show me what he has done other then the whole lying thing (a null tell) that indicates him being scum over CML.

[Zakeri]

His play makes no sense as scum, as why would he choose now, and this early in the game, to ruin a long standing meta as strong as that?

I think MBL has put this belief to question. When someone knows how their own meta is perceived by others, they can manipulate around it. Even armlx has said above that it is only a null-tell, not a town tell.
The whole argument that ABR's meta = town is shaky.

null-tell

There in lies the problem with the ABR lynch. This meta does not make him town, nor does it make him scum. His role as bulletproof does not make him town, nor does it make him scum. The idea of a doctor protect does not even have a chance to relate to his alignment, even if the doctor himself was mafia, since they would want to keep ABR alive to get us to waste a lynch if he was town.

There is nothing indicating that he is scum, while we have the poor actions of Callmeliam to look back to - Trying to detour the lynch towards someone who made what looks like a newbie mistake rather than attempting to "Catch someone in a lie" when and if Armlx or Xtoxm turned up town. from what we know, CallMeLiam has a better chance of flipping Shinra than ABR has a chance of flipping anything. That is were today's vote should be placed.

[Jebus]

@CarnCarn:

unvote

for now. I'm not really sure anymore. I'm still a little concerned at the possibility of lynching a pro-town power role, even if it isn't the most useful of claimed abilities (which also makes me think he isn't scum).