Mini 619 - Ramen Mafia (Over!)

[strife220]

Looks the only quirks in the rules here are basically activity requirements. Post every 48 hours, 48 hour nighttimes, and 14 day deadlines? I'd imagine if everybody is as active as the 48 hour posting requirements require, the deadline shouldn't be much of a problem at all.

Vote: Charter

because he's the unfortunate soul to have posted first.

[strife220]

I know that's what I mean, who doesn't protect the cop?! What were the chances? lol oh well

You got your ass wifom'd to death, it sounds

[strife220]

Would it be advantageous to us as a town to create a plurality policy? That is, we agree that at some predetermined time before the deadline (-6 or -8 hours), if there is no consensus we will lynch the person with the greatest number of votes?

This is essentially a constant unspoken rule. There's no debate that a random lynch is, under normal circumstances, better than a no-lynch. When deadline gets exceptionally close, town will behave accordingly.

[strife220]

A random lynch has a 1/12 chance of hitting scum, which is better than a 0/12.

Its all in the math.

Isn't there normally three scum in a mini? This would suggest there's a 1/4 chance of hitting scum on a random lynch, not the 1/12 like you say.

2 to 4 scum in general, 3 most typically. If Darla said '2/12 chance' then I'd call for a wagon. Unsure about what '1/12' means.
Darla: Clarification here?

[strife220]

I thought my scuminess would get us out of random voting faster and more people would be questioning

Found a non-random place for my vote

Unvote, Vote: aioqwe

Getting out of random is good. If you're pro-town, getting us out of random by making us think you're scum is not good.

[strife220]

4 votes on MLF is much more pushy than a dice vote deserves, in my opinion. Me thinks there's at least one scum on that wagon, unless there's another reason for voting him that I missed. Aioqwe and windkirby both have pretty crappy reasons for joining a wagon like that.

[strife220]

Serious now, you're already trying to direct suspicion towards others, hence my vote on you. Not really towards a single person either...

Aioqwe and windkirby both have pretty crappy reasons for joining a wagon like that.

What? 2 people, one of which I'm already voting for.

[strife220]

Anybody wanna give me the TLDR version of that opening post? I wasn't in PEGBAM, and I got confused/bored after the first few sentences (sorry flameaxe!). Not sure if there's anything useful or if it's all just flavor.

We can't necessarily wait for later. I had one game where we dragged on practically random voting the entire game. Especially considering the deadline restrictions, I'd rather not wait for later, get in something a tad scummy so people talk. That makes more chances for the actual scum to slip up.

I admit I have no meta here, but this sounds like lying. In the 4 pages thus far you really don't seem like the calculating type. I'd peg you as the type of townie who would just play it as it comes. If I'm completely wrong here, I'd love some meta example of you as town pulling a calculated 'stunt.'

My vote stands for now. I'm actually dead serious when I say I bet there's scum on that previous MLF-wagon. aioqwe and windkirby's votes were so terribly place, and now charter is crawling up my scum-list.

4 votes on MLF is much more pushy than a dice vote deserves, in my opinion. Me thinks there's at least one scum on that wagon, unless there's another reason for voting him that I missed. Aioqwe and windkirby both have pretty crappy reasons for joining a wagon like that.

I'll go ahead and fix this for you.

unvote
vote strife

If you're already going to assume that one of four people is scum, I'll just go ahead and assume you're scum.

Serious now, you're already trying to direct suspicion towards others, hence my vote on you. Not really towards a single person either...

That's just a plain BS attack. Directing suspicion away from a wagon based off of random voting onto two people highlighted for opportunistic bandwagoning is in no way scummy. You also implied that I highlighted the entire wagon which I didn't. The vote also has an air of OMGUS to it since you were on that wagon.


He then takes a bit of heat for the the vote, and leads it up with another crappy vote:

unvote
vote Darla

For hypocrisy and basically waiting for someone to build a case she can latch onto. (That's how I interpret 'look for anything that really jumps out at me')

Darla clearly stated that her unvote was temporary and promised a re-read before she voted.



That's two crappy votes in a row, worded in a way that made those being voted seem much more scummy than their actions warranted. Charter is my #2 suspect, just below aioque.

[strife220]

Not a whole lot to say today (nor time to say it). Everything I posted yesterday still applies, with slight more confidence in my aioqwe vote.


Would prefer not to have noise conversations in the game for the sake of re-reads though.


I don't see you saying you were going to play this game a bit differently, aioqwe. If you did say this, I'd like to see it.

[strife220]

I like Darla's post 121 - and not Just because it picks me as town

Seriously, do you have any other suspicions or are you just going to badger me all day? Most people try and get a lil' more out of D1 then try and lynch the first person they suspect.

He's actually right at least. 2 week deadline is actually a fair bit of time given people are actually going to be active. 5 votes on aioqwe is getting too close to a lynch. Decide on a lynch once deadline is really looming.

Unvote, Vote Charter

The vote on me was horrible, your vote on Darla was horrible, and your overdefensiveness to me saying 'there's probably scum on the MLF-wagon' implies that I was definitely correct, and possibly even nailed both you and your partner.

[strife220]

Bandwagon grew faster than I'd expect scumwagon to.

Disagree here sort of. Aiowqe's bandwagon had a reason for it, and this game is under 2 week deadlines at all times. Bandwagons have to happen fast, and people need to take that into account when they're looking for scumtells.


"Sort of" being, what about Food's bandwagon? Page 2, 4 votes from using dice to random vote? If you think townie-wagons grow faster than scum-wagons, you must think it's because there is scum on them. Why haven't you invested much interested into the members of said wagon?




In general, I have no clue what the hell kind of conversation is going on between Oman and Muerrto. Muerrto's right about Oman's awkward playing here, yet by the end of the conversation they seem to be buddied up. Clearly Muerrto understands something I don't, and I think Oman seems to be soft-claiming, which I definitely don't like. If either of you are townies I suggest you stop the encoded messages immediately.

[strife220]

Final Question for this post:[/b][/u] Is "encoding" messages between two players like this inherently anti-town? If not, why do you disapprove? If so, explain how and whether you think that makes one, or both of us scum?

Only question of this post?
"Encoding" messages is not anti-town if the two players talking are confirmed townies. If this is the case, then town can ignore what you're saying and trust you.
The problem is, you're not a confirmed townie. Nor is Muerrto. And you shouldn't know each other's alignment - and if you do, your breadcrumbing information to scum while leaving town in the dark. Encoded messages imply that you both know something that we do not (informed minority), which makes town suspicious and paranoid.

Note: we're not encoding them. We're talking about something you don't understand. The difference is that what we're doing is not anti-town at all.

Very convincing - I love the "trust me" argument. How are we supposed to know that what you're doing is pro-town?

Oman is becoming a close second in that category.

Case in point. If you and windkirby are both town, you've struck him with paranoia and distracted him from trying to find scum.

[strife220]

ow are we supposed to know that what you're doing is pro-town?

No. Its irrelevant to the game.

Case in point. If you and windkirby are both town, you've struck him with paranoia and distracted him from trying to find scum.

Windkirby, I love you dearly, please don't take this badly but:

Thats not my problem, nor my fault. If a player is distracted by small simple things, then if its not me, it'll be something else.

If it's not relevant then why did you say it?

If you do something that implies you're informed, and somebody else thinks "Woah... he seems like he could be an informed minority," then it is your fault.

[strife220]

Because its relevant to our relationship as people.

I am informed, about things that aren't alignments in the game. Where, in my banter with Muerrto, do I say anything about alignments that aren't my own.

The fact that you're acting buddy-ish to Muerrto makes it seem like you know something about his alignment. It's strange for two players who Should be suspicious of each other to have a friendly chat.

More to the point, if we were scumbuddies, why the hell would we do this in thread?!

WIFOM much?

Because its relevant to our relationship as people.

I am informed, about things that aren't alignments in the game. Where, in my banter with Muerrto, do I say anything about alignments that aren't my own.

More to the point, if we were scumbuddies, why the hell would we do this in thread?!

I don't believe they are acting anti-town right now. Perhaps a little non pro-town if anything. I don't think they are scum though, not yet at least.

Windkirby, reasons on sthar and Oman would be nice.

Agree here. This conversation may be interesting later in the game, but for now it's been exhausted and is distracting

Sorry, I posted in the V/LA thread that I was going to be gone and I didn't have time before I left to pm all the mod's of my games... But I'm back now. I don't have much time now, but I went through quickly so I'll address this.

Unvote, Vote Charter

The vote on me was horrible, your vote on Darla was horrible, and your overdefensiveness to me saying 'there's probably scum on the MLF-wagon' implies that I was definitely correct, and possibly even nailed both you and your partner.

Now you've convinced yourself that you are correct? So according to you, since there's two scum in that four, what order would you lynch them in? Why aren't you arguing to lynch all of them, since you're "definately correct"? You think you know everything, but I can't see how you're so sure that you're right. I agree that the wagon on food was poorly justified, but I think you're reading much too far into it and whatever convinced you that you've already found two scum.

I really don't know why I said 'definitely' there. Maybe I shouldn't be making posts at 2AM - the sentence "implies that I was definitely correct" is a bit self-contradicting. I should have wrote "reinforces my confidence."



On another note, Sthar8's post 173 is very accurate. Kiwi, Liam, Clockwork, and Food all have fairly unclear opinions and haven't given many contributions to the hunt.


Unofficial vote count:
Aioqwe [2] (Beyond_Birthday, DarlaBlueEyes)
Charter [2] (Sthar8, Strife220)
Melikefood [1] (Aioqwe)
Muerrto [1] (Oman)
DarlaBlueEyes [1] (Charter)
Sthar8 [1] (Windkirby)

Unofficial deadline count: about 7 and a half days.

We got a lot of content for 7 days of play, and I think it's time to start thinking more seriously about a lynch. If we don't have a majority by deadline, we go into no-lynch. As such, I think we should have our lynch target essentially decided at least a few days before deadline, in the situation where a role-claim reverses the wagon. I'd hate to bring a player to L-1 at deadline and have them claim cop without having time to discuss it.

[strife220]

EBWOP: Lots of crossposting.

New Unofficial vote count:
Aioqwe [1] (DarlaBlueEyes)
Charter [3] (Sthar8, Strife220, Beyond_Birthday)
Melikefood [1] (Aioqwe)
Muerrto [1] (Oman)
DarlaBlueEyes [1] (Charter)
Sthar8 [1] (Windkirby)

[strife220]

Yes, you should probably say it just in case there is any confusion.

WIFOM much?

My biggest problem with WIFOM is that everyone misuses it. WIFOM only applies when there is an equal benefit. Basically, there is greater benefit to me and muerrto staying hidden as scumbuddies and only makjing cursory attacks on eachother than there is in us buddying up to project a townie look (through WIFOM anyway).

That is: you're using circular WIFOM logic to make something WIFOM out of nothing.

Beyond_Birthday and Muerrto both have something to say now.

I think there's plenty of benefit for scum to set a situation where they plan a slow mason-claim or something similar. If they convince town, they get to ride to the end of the game. There's also motivation for one scum to buddy up town town.

More importantly: I don't think I implied that I thought you and Muerrto were scum-buddies. I do think that the conversation was likely anti-town (if you're both pro-town) and will hold a wealth of information if one of you turns up scum.

And if you are pro-town, please stop saying BS things like:

I play strangely sometimes, its part of my meta.

to justify behaviour. "I always do it" is not an excuse to do anti-town things.



Beyond_Birthday's post 181 is good, and gets across some of my own thoughts nicely.

[strife220]

My reread. Don't know how I missed this one before...

4 votes on MLF is much more pushy than a dice vote deserves, in my opinion. Me thinks there's at least one scum on that wagon, unless there's another reason for voting him that I missed. Aioqwe and windkirby both have pretty crappy reasons for joining a wagon like that.

The reasons people voted food.

Me - his name was first
Oman - "Dice tags are wrong and evil, and you should be killed"
kiwi - "outside of me, his actions seem interesting"
WK - "Not crazy about dicing"

What makes Oman's reason (or mine) any less crappy? You didn't mention Oman, but everyone who voted for Food had a poor reason.

Page 1 and 2 votes are expected to be crappy and random. After 2 votes get on someone, subsequent votes need to be well justified. You're basically asking me "what's the difference between L-6 and L-3." Kiwi and WK have crappy reasons for putting their votes on late in the wagon.

I really don't know why I said 'definitely' there. Maybe I shouldn't be making posts at 2AM - the sentence "implies that I was definitely correct" is a bit self-contradicting. I should have wrote "reinforces my confidence."

So you're still saying that me and another person on that wagon are scum? So I'll ask you again, why aren't you trying to get us lynched? You're voting me, but having made much of a big case on me.

Any reason for you to give votecounts? Any reason for your revised one to be forged? If you added votes wrongly to someone else but me I'd chalk it up to an honest mistake, but since you're gunning just for me, it makes it seem like you want me to appear to have more votes than I do for some reason. Care to share?

I think the fact that you overreacted to me saying "I think there's scum on the wagon" is indicative that I was right. And... How am I not trying to get you lynched? My vote was first on aioqwe and now my votes on you. What else am I supposed to do, start making stuff up?


The votecount is because I was interested, and because deadline is now looming and we have to start thinking more seriously about who to lynch. Votecount lays out everyone's opinion on that matter.

What do you mean my latter votecount was forged? Are you pointing out how I had to post two? If so, look at the time stamps. My first vote count was made one minute after BB changed his vote, hence the 'crossposting' comment.



I too would like more insight into BB's initial vote on WK. There had to be Some reason, even if you 'forgot it' later.

"Sort of" being, what about Food's bandwagon? Page 2, 4 votes from using dice to random vote? If you think townie-wagons grow faster than scum-wagons, you must think it's because there is scum on them. Why haven't you invested much interested into the members of said wagon?

Because I don't think that the members on it will give much. I took a look at them and decided it was a much more reasonable and a much more logical strategy to focus on other things which were more reliable. You see, newbies often wagon hard as town or scum, so its less reliable.

Windkirby has been on this site for over 4 months and has made almost 400 posts. Kiwi has been on this site for a year and has made over 700 posts. You're offering them a newbie defense?


What are your feelings on Charter's OMGUS over-reaction to my accusation? Seen here:

4 votes on MLF is much more pushy than a dice vote deserves, in my opinion. Me thinks there's at least one scum on that wagon, unless there's another reason for voting him that I missed. Aioqwe and windkirby both have pretty crappy reasons for joining a wagon like that.

I'll go ahead and fix this for you.

unvote
vote strife

If you're already going to assume that one of four people is scum, I'll just go ahead and assume you're scum.

Serious now, you're already trying to direct suspicion towards others, hence my vote on you. Not really towards a single person either...

Oman loves gambits. He attacked me for god awful reasons and I SHOULD have seen it since he JUST did this to someone else in my last game with him, but since he targetted me I was like um...dude, those are god awful reasons.

This doesn't make me comfortable. It sounds like a good tactic for Oman to use if he's scum. i.e. you saw him do this as town last game, so if he does it this game, you'll think he's town again.

Reinforced here:

The reason why I took his advice about Kiwi is because Oman loves gambits. I was basically asking if Oman thought Kiwi was legit about his. He thinks he was. I'm not convinced. His latest posts haven't really tried to do....anything.

You sound awfully confident that you aren't getting played.

And see here:

Lesson 1 for new people: Don't worry that someone puts ONE vote on you. Had I left Oman alone his gambit to see who would leap onto me for his poor reasons may have caught someone. As it is, I think I killed it.

Yeah...I was going to try it again. Which is why I didn't tell them I was doing it

I can't believe you missed it man, that last newbie I tried pretty much the same gambit and then I was all "OMGWTFBBQ!"

Oman has moved way up my scumlist. This looks and feels like scum taking a prime opportunity to buddy-up.

[strife220]

Just a quick note while I'm at work:
6 days until deadline, can we at least all agree that one of the top 3 should be lynched:

Aioqwe [2] (Beyond_Birthday, DarlaBlueEyes)
Charter [2] (Sthar8, Strife220)
Windkirby [2] (Muerrto, Oman)

I'd like to see a consensus wagon and a claim within the next 3 days so that we aren't caught with our pants down right before deadline dissecting a claim. At the very least, Food, Liam, Clockwork, and Charter should all have their votes out.

[strife220]

Believe him or not, it's not worth it to lynch him. Town has a lot to gain by having him alive if he's cop, and little to lose (at this stage of the game) if he's lying. It's not like we're in lylo or under immediate pressure.


I was going to say the wagon grew exceptionally fast on WK, but checking the votes it seems he was L-3. A little bit premature, but not much to say about it now.

[strife220]

If there is another cop (or a 'real' cop and WK's lying) now is definitely not the time to claim.

The only person who changed votes while you could possibly have been posting was BB. He changed his vote to WK, not charter, like you are trying to make others believe.

You're right, I screwed up my vote count. BB switched from Darla to WK, not Darla to you.

[strife220]

What Oman did was bring a weak case on me to see who bit into it. It's not scummy it's called a gambit. Your wagon gained force so fast because you fell into it. Don't. Don't let someone else's case influence your decision, make your own.

Still disagree here. Definitely not comfortable with the gambit.


Kiwi fell for it? Around Oman's crappy attack, you were attacking Kiwi. All I see is him trying to defend himself from your attacks, he didn't OMGUS and he didn't say anything to agree with Oman.

In fact, the whole scenario confuses me a bit. Re-reading, here are how I see what happened:

Oman attacks Muerrto for a crappy reason
Muerrto says 'that's a really crappy reason'
banter back and forth
Muerrto asks Oman "from experience, what do you think of Kiwi"
Oman says "nah, wagon grew too fast for it to be a scum wagon"

The part missing from this conversation is Kiwi doing something explicitly scummy that played into Oman's gambit. Even so, Oman's "wagon grew too fast to be a scum wagon" doesn't fit in.


Muerrto and/or Oman, clarify here please?

Tags fixed -Mod

[strife220]

I fail at quote tags lately

Mod

, please but the end bracket on the quote above.

[strife220]

@WK: The only general cop rule is don't investigate someone you think is obv-town. Investing shady middle-ground players and investigating more obv-scum both have advantages. I disagree with Charter's statement that you should always investigate the person you see as most scummy.

Like everyone else said, don't let who town thinks is scum influence you.

Can we get a quick count on who supports which lynch?

I've convinced myself over the past few pages that Charter is scum. Kiwi's a good second choice

[strife220]

Investigating obvscum is bad if you're an unclaimed cop. If you're claimed, it's not a bad strategy

[strife220]

Hrm... I was just about to ask for a vote-count

it's 4 days until deadline, so once again, we need to get to wagoning. Kiwi hasn't posted anywhere on MS for 3 days. I'm not sure if he's received 'strikes' yet, but I believe if he goes another 24 hours without posting, he gets modkilled. Even if he returns, he'll have to post every 24 hours or else get his third strike. Correct me if my logic is faulty here, but I see no reason to lynch a player if they're going to get mod-killed anyway.

See rules here:

10) I am requiring all of you to be active. If a player goes without a post for 48 hours, they will receive a prod, as well as one strike. After that prod and strike has been issued, the player will receive another strike for each 24 hour period with no posting.
11) When a player reaches three strikes, they will be modkilled without mercy. This is not helpful to anyone.

So given WK and likely Kiwi are out of the running, that leaves Charter and MLF as the only ones with votes currently. I still like a Charter lynch, as I think he's most likely to be scum. I'm still quite suspicious of Oman, but I'm going on the assumption that he will explain his crappy D1 play (dodging questions, avoiding concrete statements, etc) on D2. MLF looks like generic newbie town to me.


*Edit on refreshing, I see that Aioqwe has only received his first strike, and not two strikes for 72 hours of absence. Presumably the second 24 hour period starts after the prod. I retract what I said about aioqwe until he has received his second strike.

[strife220]

When I wrote that I assumed Kiwi had a modkill coming up. I apparently do suck at reading the rules, but I wasn't excluding Kiwi's vote.

I didn't know you had two strikes, but even so, I highly doubt you're going to be mod-killed before the day is over. Kiwi still may be (if he goes 2 more days without posting), and if he is, we need to be ready with the lynch. If he does come back, then, like I said, I drop my statements about not having reason to lynch him.

[strife220]

2 days until deadline, 2 hours until Kiwi gets his second strike. If charter claims something that forces us not to kill him, I really don't know where my vote is going to go. I think we should get him to L-2 or L-1 for a claim pretty soon though, since nobody seems to have a case on why he should live.


Muerrto: You say you've played a few games with Oman as town before. Is he always this seemingly useless? I would have thought someone who posts on this site 12 times a day to be a little more helpful as town.

[strife220]

Did Kiwi just claim at L-4? I suppose time is of the essence here, but that's a little much.


Well that makes Kiwi either vig or SK. Either way, I guess town can use that to our advantage for today and pick both a lynch-target and direct Kiwi's nightkill. Which means... we have to pick two lynches, and make them both claim before Monday?


@Muerrto: If he does prove to be un-NKable (indirectly, by not getting NK'd), and proves he's got NK-abilitity (by town-directed choices), then we'll know he's either SK or vig. If he's SK, he doesn't need to be lynched until later in the game, and we can use his NK to benefit town. I think that's a pretty good reason to remove a vote.


Since Kiwi isn't mafia (maybe SK) and WK is a terrible lynched (claimed doc), I think we need to get cracking on 2 more lynch choices and (ughhhhh) 2 more claims.

[strife220]

Unvote Vote Kiwi

Simulposted.

This guy is somehow avoiding a modkill, so lets give him a townkill.

NO, I don't buy it, no, I don't think he is more likely to be scum than charter, BUT I feel his has an above average chance of being scum i.e chance > random. So he's optimal if charterwagon don't fly.

I'm confused. Charter and Kiwi both have a few votes on them. Why would you jump off one wagon to the other if you think Charter's more likely scum?

[strife220]

My current suspects are: charter, Liam, food, in that order.

This is approximately my ordering as well. Food's play has been a bit scummy, but I feel there's a good chance he's newbie town. Liam's been contributing very little and has avoided making many concrete statements. Charter is, well, charter.

I'd love to see a Charter lynch and a Liam vig.

We have 48 hours now to get everyone's opinion and lynch someone.

[strife220]

I don't like the idea of the town deciding on your kill. First, there's no way we can reach a consensus. Second, you're letting the mafia influence your kill, hence I think it's plausibe that you're going to kill a townie.

We don't have to reach a majority, we just have to have enough people input opinions and Kiwi to say 'alright guys, I'm going to kill *Person X* tonight.

Shouldn't let mafia influence the kill? Mafia influence every kill made in Mafia - that's one of the ways we're supposed to catch them. That's why we discuss reasons for and against lynching a player.

For example:
I suggest (again?) we lynch Charter and have Kiwi NK Liam. Reasons for charter have been explained. Liam stands out to me as a player who has went out of his way to say very little, is perhaps the least active (in terms of words posted) player, making him the lurky-est, and has done little-to-no scumhunting.



No counter-claim on Kiwi's claim from me - I'm not creamy chicken. I think discussing who he should NK is a much more pressing matter than whether or not his claim is believable. His NK ability is easily prove-able, and can be used to town advantage today even if he is SK.

[strife220]

Darla (and everyone that is not picking out a NK target), please explain to me why my "Kiwi must be SK or vig, and regardless of which, town can use the NK to their advantage" is not worth following?

[strife220]

Here's my problem with picking Kiwi's target, just so you all know. Mafia could easily decide to NK to make it seem like he was lying and the the NK immune player out of the game. That would really hurt us. That's why it isn't worth following. It's too easily manipulated.

Expect more later.

Could you elaborate on this? You mean if we pick a target for Kiwi to off, and scum overlap the kill? This sounds like a big pro-town advantage, since scum would only do this if we chose a townie for Kiwi to kill. Moreover, in some games if two alignments target the same player for a nightkill, the flavor will say something like "Player XXX, shot and stabbed N1" to indicate he was double-killed.

[strife220]

I don't like the idea of the town deciding on your kill. First, there's no way we can reach a consensus. Second, you're letting the mafia influence your kill, hence I think it's plausibe that you're going to kill a townie.

We don't have to reach a majority, we just have to have enough people input opinions and Kiwi to say 'alright guys, I'm going to kill *Person X* tonight.

Shouldn't let mafia influence the kill? Mafia influence every kill made in Mafia - that's one of the ways we're supposed to catch them. That's why we discuss reasons for and against lynching a player.

Am I the only one noticing strife picked me for scum in the beginning of the game and hasn't dropped it or looked much for anyone else? You stretch everything I say strife to make another argument against me. I don't say he shouldn't let scum influence his kill. I say he can't help it. You in fact took the opposite of what I said and tried to twist it into another argument against me.

I'm actually not trying to turn your words against you. My main reason for voting you is still your reaction to my early day statement, the OMGUS on me, and the weak attack on Darla. I'm legitimately disagreeing with your points here.

I still don't understand your point "you're letting mafia influence the kill, and thus will probably kill a townie." Perhaps I'll understand your thought process better if you answer this question: If you were a pro-town vig this game (ignoring the fact that Kiwi has claimed vig), would you use your kill ability tonight, knowing that probability dictates that you'll likely hit a townie?

[strife220]

I must say I haven't understood CR's last few posts... I don't get the point he's trying to make with the vig-scum-nkill-whatever deal.

But anyway, even if kiwi is lying or is an SK, we might as well save him for a bit later. After all, if he is SK, he's after the mafia, too...

Here, I'll chart it out.

Town - Alright Vig, kill X.
Vig- Okay.

Night comes around.
Vig nk's X
Mafia no kills.

The next day, mafia puts blame onto vig saying he faked claimed to try to get rid of the NK immune vig.

I already addressed this, but I'll do it again. How can mafia not using their nightkill be a bad thing?

What alternative do you suggest - that we just assume Kiwi is telling the truth and keep him around until end-game? Let him vig/SK unclaimed people who have confirmable roles?

[strife220]

Oman, your semi-claim isn't helping anything. You're not giving enough information to convince anyone (presumably including Kiwi) to agree with you. For the like 4th time, the "trust me" argument fails.

Given it's a day until deadline, I'll say let Kiwi live, and he gets his own choice, since so few people are contributing to the direction.

[strife220]

if we don't pile 7 votes on someone in the next day, it's going to be a no-lynch

[strife220]

Dude, vote for someone

Same goes with Clock, BB, Oman, and Food. By not voting anyone you're essentially voting no-lynch.

[strife220]

I currently support a choice between Liam, Oman, and no-kill for you, but if you reason well enough, I could probably accept any kill but

Clockwork

.

Bolded = mine. Huh? Did I miss something? Did you mean WK (claimed doc)?


Charter, I assume you don't have a claim that is going to reverse the wagon (else you would have done so), but you might as well claim anyway.


If Kiwi is going to make his own decision (which seems to be the guaranteed case), I suggest he keep it to himself, or he says it with enough time left in the day for said NKee to claim.

[strife220]

Unvote

Full claim Charter: name and flavor.

We have a claimed cop, doc, and a NKimmune vig. If 3 of them are telling the truth (and there's no funny business to their roles) we're just about of power roles for a regularly balanced mini.

I'm at a loss. I'd much rather have a chance at hitting scum today than lynching the SK/vig - the night could tell us a lot about his alignment.
I'm having a harder time believing Charters claim, heavily due to lack of flavor, but I'm still not willing to risk lynching the cop though.


With the top 3 'scummiest' all claimed, this is a good time to lynch based on lack of contribution. In order, CallMeLiam, BeyondBirthday, and Clockworkruse have posted the least. I'm going to

Vote: CallMeLiam

but will do whatever it takes to get a lynch off at deadline (like 18 hours away).

[strife220]

EBWOP

If a wagon starts to grow on somebody who hasn't claimed, and they are cop/doc/vig, they shouldn't waste time and should counter-claim immediately.

[strife220]

Mod

: Did scum have the opportunity to talk before D1 started?

[strife220]

It's Very weird flavor. Are there 12 types of Raman? I'd would have thought everybody, town or scum, would have a flavor to claim.

[strife220]

If Liam flips beef, I think Kiwi should NOT target him tonight. This will mean he's scum, but he's scum that Wants to be targeted by a NK for some reason. Kiwi should vig/SK someone else, and we lynch Oman tomorrow if he's lying.

If Liam flips scum, I think Kiwi should definitely target Oman

[strife220]

Somebody hammer before deadline...

[strife220]

EBWOP:

I'm no ramen expert (we actually don't have it in Canada), but aren't there more than one kinds of beef flavor? Liam and Oman, double check your role PMs - definitely don't want to hear a BS "ooh... I was Spicy beef, not just beef... my bad" explanation tomorrow.

[strife220]

I hope nobody lets Oman live this down...


Power-roles tell all time.

[strife220]

Don't speculate in thread. If Kiwi is scum, it will just give him ideas.

[strife220]

People shouldn't really be doing anything until all claimed power-roles have checked in.

[strife220]

EBWOP:
Especially since Kiwi said he was going to target Muerrto if Liam flipped town.

[strife220]

Umm... if Kiwi doesn't post in the next 5 hours, I think he may get modkilled. Or at least second strike. Any chance he can get a prod before the strike?

[strife220]

It's been 24 hours since day started and Kiwi hasn't posted. I'm pretty sure that's a modkill, and we won't know what the heck happened last night.

Kiwi didn't post 24 hours after the prod, second strike.
Liam has missed a 48 hour period, strike/prod.

[strife220]

Why are you so anxious for a modkill on Kiwi?

The game is basically waiting on him. Me saying it won't make it any less true or not so there's no harm - Flameaxe has been keeping a close eye on time stamps

[strife220]

How do you know scum killed Oman, clockwork?

[strife220]

Posting to avoid strike. Busy day

[strife220]

If Kiwi is actually a pro-town NK immune vig, then we have to start thinking how much town power there can realistically be.


Regardless of what Kiwi flips, I think Muerrto should be claiming right about now

[strife220]

Opinions on what? Muerrto? He should claim

[strife220]

Ah... never knew that about the 48 hour clock reset.

Yea Kiwi was modkilled- serial killer.

If he came up as a NK immune vig, I was going to have serious sanity questions on our cop. This makes me more comfortable with investigation results.


I'm going to assume that we don't have a vig, else they would have NK'd Kiwi (though Kiwi may be NK-immune). Which means that the kill on Oman came from Kiwi or scum. Given that Kiwi was creamy chicken and Oman was creamy lover (or w/e), I really doubt Kiwi targeted Oman.

So, why did scum target Oman instead of a claimed cop or doc? I really know know... but I'm still not interested in a Charter or WK lynch today. Depending on what Muerrto claims, a mass-claim may be in order to get a better hold of the situation. We're soon going to run out of likely non-vanilla roles.

[strife220]

Got some flavor with that claim Muerrto?

[strife220]

Pun not intended, but I wish it was!

[strife220]

I'm still feeling a mass-claim. We have an outed doc and cop, a dead jack-of-all-trades, and presumably no vig. 3 power-roles is a lot of town power, and has to be balanced either by lots of scum-power, or by misleadingly weak town-power (insane cop, millers, etc.).

I'd like to hear everyone's input on why this is or isn't a good situation to mass-claim. I think it's good because our typical strongest powers are out, and unless there's a counter-claim out there for cop and doc, scum already have plenty good choices for NK.

[strife220]

As for a mass-claim, I don't see the benefit at this particular moment. I think a mass-claim tomorrow is fine, but on Day 2 it seems a little premature.

The reason why early mass-claims are bad is because it outs town power so scum know who to pick off at night. My argument for town power is that scum already know our two most important power-roles (assuming they're telling the truth, which I think they probably are). A third, incredibly valuable role is dead. There can't possibly be much more town power out there, and if there is, they can't be higher a priority than doc and cop on the scum kill list.

I'm already skeptical of WK's result. I disagree that Muerrto is the lynch for today, because I think town having a frame-blocker or a vanilla townie actually being a miller is fairly high. I think a mass-claim will bring a lot of light to this situation.


Please argue why a mass-claim is not a good idea, keeping in mind we have a claimed doc and cop.

[strife220]

It's not a good idea to test the sanity of our cop if it involves lynching a townie.
Given how much pro-town power there seems to be, I'm highly suspect of WKs result. There's a chance he's paranoid, there's a chance Muerrto was a miller, there's a chance Muerrto was framed, there's a chance WK is scum.

WK will survive the night regardless because we have a claimed doc. Tomorrow he will have a new result. That new result will get us information about Muerrto. I don't want to lynch a player simply to 'test' our cop, especially when that test has no guarantee of being conclusive.


@Muerrto: Do you still think WK is scum? If not, why has your opinion changed?

[strife220]

EBWOP:
I should re-read more closely before I ask questions. Muerrto already answered that, sorry.

Am I the only one that thinks Muerrto shouldn't be lynched today?

[strife220]

Funny... I agree with both Charter and WK here.

Definitely uncomfortable with a player at L-1 with a week left before deadline. This issue is far from as cut and dry as most are making it out to be.


Since it seems to have an influence over my behaviour, and I realllly doubt it will in any way harm town, I'm going to softclaim here that I have a powerrole. I am not a vanilla townie. It's part of the reason why I'm especially suspicious of a guilty, and why I've been interested in a mass claim - so that statements like these are known to be false:

I don't think massclaiming is going to out anything else, however I don't think it's going to reveal anything but vanilla townies. On the off chance that we do have more town power, I say we don't mass claim yet.

I don't feel like scum would choose to lynch me over a doc or cop, so I'm not worried that my soft-claim will detriment town. I'm not sure if town is willing to 'take my word for it,' but I can assure you that when we do mass-claim, you'll see that I'm not just making stuff up to influence town's decision. You can hold me to those word.


So, given that we have a doc, cop, jack-of-all-trades, and I have my own power, I'm convinced that scum must have a significant amount of power themselves, or town has some detrimental roles. I think another investigation from WK will be very telling of his reliability, and a lynch on Muerrto is unnecessary (and possibly uneffective) for 'proving' our cop. I will only be voting Muerrto if it's necessary to avoid a no-lynch.

Unfortunately I'm less decisive here as to who I do want to lynch. I'll have to do some re-reading to settle on an opinion

[strife220]

@Strife, I have no idea what your role is, but would you only claiming be beneficial?

So long as people believe that I'm not lying, then town wouldn't benefit from knowing my specific role. Since full-claiming doesn't 'prove' my role any more than soft-claiming, there's no real benefit. My claim will be satisfactory upon mass-claim, or whenever I'm forced to.

[strife220]

Your soft claim is also unwise, in my opinion. You have potentially added your name to the list of scum kills, and for what reason? To prove that there is more town power in the game? Why did pro-town players need to know that? I was hoping to have at least

one

night of scum uncertainty

somewhere

along the line, but you've pretty much shattered that strategy, if you're town.

We outed our cop and doc on D1 - the two main kill targets for scum. At the earliest, cop will have these roles gone by D4, by which time I'm sure we'll either be mass-claiming, or have outed the majority of roles anyway due to lynching.

The number of power-roles seems to heavily favor town, increasing the likelihood of some mechanism to make our cop less effective. Our claimed cop has expressed a bit of concern about his own sanity. About a quarter of the players in the game have jumped on the guilty result with complete tunnel-vision, and given poor reasoning like:

Now then, can I ask why we aren't lynching Muerrto? With his lynch, we discover if our cop is insane, paranoid, or sane. Information that we

need

to know.

The whole situation makes me incredibly uncomfortable, given how opportunistic a lot of this behaviour looks, and I can smell the excuses that would be thrown around tomorrow if Muerrto flips town.


I like Clockwork for a lynch today. His stance on controlling the vig was shady:

Here's my problem with picking Kiwi's target, just so you all know. Mafia could easily decide to NK to make it seem like he was lying and the the NK immune player out of the game. That would really hurt us. That's why it isn't worth following. It's too easily manipulated.

Expect more later.

The martyrdom is shady:

If you want someone else to direct a kill at, go ahead and direct one at me. I'm okay dying for the town if it gets us somewhere.

The "why is the doc still alive?" comment is Very shady:

I'd like it if we could just use the term night kill for Kiwi from now on. =D Thank you very much. That said...

Wow. That's all I can really say about Oman. I would also like to say, why is the doctor still alive? If I was mafia, that is exactly who I would go after first. I'm going to have to re-read on who claimed doc, but I find that very odd that mafia would leave a claimed doctor alive.

I find it a very good possibility scum didn't kill the doctor so that town would doubt the claim. Given that town didn't bring it up quickly, scum-clockwork would be tempted to see if there was any chance to get him lynched.

I'd like it if we could just use the term night kill for Kiwi from now on. =D Thank you very much. That said...

Wow. That's all I can really say about Oman. I would also like to say, why is the doctor still alive? If I was mafia, that is exactly who I would go after first. I'm going to have to re-read on who claimed doc, but I find that very odd that mafia would leave a claimed doctor alive.

I'm the doctor. Glad to know what you would do if you were mafia. How exactly does that help us and not serve for a whole mess of pointless WIFOM discussion? Also, thanks for bringing attention to me, and ruin my chances of flying under the radar tonight.

I'm just curious about all of this. First, your claim saved you from a lynch yesterday and there is no way of knowing if you really are the doc or not. And I don't understand why the mafia would kill Oman instead of going after one of the claimed power roles. It didn't seem like there was any immediate danger from Oman, in my opinion, so why leave both the cop or the doctor alive?

It just doesn't make sense to me.

This argument makes lots of sense if Clockwork is scum. He's also stating mafia killed Oman with more certainty than a townie should have.

I think it should be obvious that scum would attempt to hit the doctor, then the cop. That gets rid of two major threats to scum and makes it a heck of a lot harder for us. But apparently they didn't do that last night, either because someone false claimed or they were planning on someone looking around and saying what the hell...?

More pushing this issue. Again, if scum avoided killing the doctor to push the "he's still alive!" case, CWR fits the profile very well.

It benefits the town because your claim saved you yesterday but in my experience, a claimed doctor dies the day they claim. It makes no sense that you would still be alive, in my opinion.

We get it already...



And then finally, post 504, he gives up pushing a doc-lynch and says now we NEED to know the sanity of our cop. What happened to Charter being the lynch for the day?

We

need

to know the sanity of our cop. If he's insane, then he's still a powerful weapon. But if he turns out to be paranoid then he's just a dull butter knife, hardly useful to us. Can someone please explain how it's

not

a good idea for us to find the sanity of our cop?

Vote: Muerrto

This 'attack' is filled with poor logic, implying that lynching Muerrto will have benefits even if he flips town.

Vote: Clockworkruse

I like the idea of voting somebody for scummy actions a lot more than voting somebody because of a questionable cop investigation.

[strife220]

The fact that you spent about 6 posts questioning why scum didn't kill the claimed doctor implies that you think it's because he's lying. Otherwise there is no pro-town reason to discuss it. I think your actions fit the MO of scum who chose not to kill the doc for WIFOM's sake - that is, you kept on bringing up how weird it was in hopes that everyone else would go "hey.. that is weird! lynch the doc!"


In theme games on MS, there's always a little doubt about cop results. That's the point of theme games - there's always a curveball waiting around the corner. That said, cop results are reliable more often than not. It's the way the situation played out as a whole that sits very poorly with me.



You didn't explain your delayed timing on the Muerrto vote. Your first 5 or 6 posts after the guilty result were spent talking about the doc. Then you make a lengthy post about how obvious it was that Muerrto is the right choice.

Moreover, you seem to contradict yourself. Your reason for voting Muerrto is to determine cop sanity. Yet you imply that on EM, you don't question guilty results - which in turn replies that your Muerrto vote is because you assumed he was definitely scum. If you don't see the contradiction here, I'll try harder to explain.

[strife220]

For face value, Sthar8's logic is pretty solid.

In practice, I think they way D2 has played out is much more in line with one of the scenarios where Muerrto is mis-lynched. I think there's a better chance CWR is scum than Muerrto.


I don't see how the soft-claims have destroyed town advantage anymore than it already has been by having an outed doc/cop.
Given that it's 5 days until deadline, I don't think we have enough time to come to a consensus on claim order, have everybody claim, and then analyze all the claims to use them to influence our lynch. Depending on the lynch and NK, I think full claiming early tomorrow would be the better idea.

[strife220]

doc and cop go first

[strife220]

No death is weird.

Points for thought while we wait for WK to check in:

Muerrto claimed chicken raman, the perfect 'vanilla' claim. I'm guessing that means scum got a fake claim in their PM. It's likely that other scum got roles that were not vanilla.

Muerrto was: Bottom Ramen Mafia Goon. That sounds to me like there will be a "Middle" and "Top," probably with increasing powers. E.g. middle = roleblocker top = godfather. Perhaps they have increasingly powerful fake-claims.

any thoughts?
/speculation

[strife220]

Well, I want to hear everyone's opinion on a mass claim at this point in time.

Given that I think scum have good fake-claims, I'm not nearly as gung-ho for a mass claim as I was previously. This situation with our doc and cop living two days is fishy, and I think scum may have dug themselves a hole.

[strife220]

I don't think that scum got a fake claim in their PM, that's really assuming a lot and out-guessing the mod in a major way.

My guess is that Muerrto was assuming that the 'vanilla' townspeople got a Chicken Flavor as everything tastes like chicken.

You really think Muerrto guessed that 'Chicken' wouldn't get counter-claimed???

[strife220]

Wait.. you're chicken? Why didn't you counter-claim the name?

[strife220]

That's almost exactly the order I would have game up with Sthar8. After mass-claim I'll be interested to hear how you read my mind.

[strife220]

EBWOP: The chances of there only being 2 scum in this whole game is pretty inconceivable. No lynch went off for a more interesting reason than 1RB alive

[strife220]

any reply from mod WK?

usually you get a 'no result' pm when a night action fails for whatever reason. Depending on the mod, of course

[strife220]

Sthar8 made the list, but everybody (except you) agrees. WK himself didn't have any objections, so presumably his list would look quite similar.

Claim please CWR

[strife220]

BB's up

[strife220]

EBWOP:

I am Plain, Dry Ramen which is the actual vanilla of the game.

Are you implying that you know there's only 1 vanilla in the game?

[strife220]

Lying about your role is a great way to get yourself lynched. Very dangerous unless the plan is near bullet-proof and town will understand.

[strife220]

Sthar8: You say you placed me last because I was the first to soft-claim. However, BB soft-claimed second and Food soft-claim third. Why did you put BB second on the list to claim?



I don't think CWR is claiming a role that should have known Muerrto's claim was a lie. I think he's just doing a poor job of saying that he's vanilla... or something.
WR? I and apparently others are still confused about this:

I am Plain, Dry Ramen which is the actual vanilla flavor of the game.

Saying dry is the Actual vanilla flavor implies that Chicken cannot possibly be another vanilla role. Please clarify, and tell us what your own role led you to think about Muerrto's claim.

[strife220]

I'm not completely sure I follow your reasoning, but I'll wait until after all role-claims before looking harder into this issue.

[strife220]

Ugh... I just deleted the lengthy post I just wrote.


Very interested to hear Sthar8 roleclaim. If BB is telling the truth, it's highly likely that there was no kill last night because Sthar8 was in jail. More on this after roleclaims.

@BB: Sorry if I missed it, but you didn't seem to explain why you didn't counterclaim Muerrto. Also, you don't seem to be suspicious of Sthar8 even though you jailed him and no kill went off. If you're town, doesn't the most likely situation put him as scum?


@CWR: I'll explain why I liked Sthar8's ordering after claims are done.




On a similar note:

Plain, Dry Ramen is

the

Vanilla Townie role of the game, not Chicken.

Bolded to highlight the confusing part. You don't seem to get it CWR. Saying you're THE vanilla role implies that nobody else can possibly be vanilla.



Sthar8 said it, but I'll repeat.

Darla

, you're up on claim. Bolded out of impatience.

[strife220]

EBWOP: "On a similar note" in the above post doesn't fit after I moved things around. I felt this deserves a post of it's own.

*Waits for CWR*
Actually, if people really thought about what I said, and the fact that I am "Chicken flavor," it should be pretty obvious what my role could be.

Woah... incredibly suspicious post. It should be obvious what your role is? ... Jailer? It's obvious chicken is jailer? Look like BB was planning on claiming Vanilla but CWR has implied that he's the only vanilla. You got some 'splaining to do BB.

[strife220]

Right well I can confirm Clock's claim now that Plain Dry Ramen is indeed the vanilla flavor.

I have nothing to report thusly.

I am a tad confused on BB's role but I've never seen the Jailkeep role, will wiki it now

next?

I'm confused. I don't see a claim here

[strife220]

@CWR: I think you're a bit confused at how we play on mafiascum. For newbie games, there is only one vanilla: usually just "vanilla townie."
However, in some games, themed games in particular, it's common for several players to be vanilla townies but have completely different names. A pretty good example would be 'dry, plain raman' and 'chicken raman' both being powerless pro-town players.

For a real example, take this game: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6813
There are four vanilla townies listed as dead. However, they all have different names. One vanilla townies name is 'godzilla,' one vanilla townie is jessica,' etc. The idea is that every player gets unique flavor, even if they don't have powers. Thus, vanilla townies are not all going to be plain, dry raman.

I'm guessing a newbie game or another site confused you here. Make sense now?

[strife220]

... Darla's claiming to be plain dry raman, the same as CWR?


I think BB and Darla are the last two scum.

[strife220]

Three posts in a row:

Sthar8 can probably deduce who Food's partner is, so I'll just claim out of order.


I'm spicy chili raman. Spicy chicken raman is my mason partner. We worked together to figure out our spicy raman powers, or something like that, and figured out how to talk at night. That's one of the reasons I wanted to claim D2 (so that food or I wouldn't get sk/vig'd), it's one of the reasons why I was happy with the claim order (me + food at the bottom), it's one of the reasons why I expected there wasn't more town power (cop + doc + jack of all trades + masons = stacked town), etc. etc. Probably more breadcrumbs lying around if you look.

[strife220]

My god there's a lot of town power claimed...

To recap:

Charter - Doc
WK - Cop
CWR - Vanilla
BB - Jailkeeper
Darla - Vanilla
sthar8 - Bulletproof Townie
Food - Mason
Strife - Mason

Dead:
Liam - Jack of all Seasonings
Oman - Creamy Chicken's Admirer
aioqwe - Serial Killer
Muerrto - Mafia Goon


For reference, a rather typical, slightly town-favored setup is seen here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0. Cop, Doc, Vig, Masons for town power. RB and Godfather for scum power, and a SK.


Random thought: It doesn't explicitly say Oman (or anyone) was town aligned on the first page, and his role-name is directly related to the SKs. Maybe he was anti-town, contributing against the seemingly overpowered town.


@Sthar8: Explicitly confirmed, as in, am I positive Food is pro-town? It doesn't say I know he's town, but I'm positive his name is spicy chicken Raman, and flavor implies we're typical confirmed masons.



I think the scum-team is most likely BB and Darla. BB claimed Chicken after Muerrto's death, without counterclaiming him D2. If he was scum and scum doesn't have safeclaims, then he realized this was a safeclaim after Muerrto didn't get counter-claimed. He breadcrumbed that Chicken was vanilla, but after CWR claimed dry, he claims Jailkeeper. This puts suspicion on Sthar8 because jailing sthar8-scum would explain the N2 no kill.

BB and Darla would avoid trying to kill the doc because Charter because Charter is 1 strike away from a mod-kill. Sthar8 has seemed pro-town, and his conviction against role-claiming may have implied he had a power-role worth killing over doc or cop. This would explain the no kill.

Darla claiming somebody elses role looks like a newbie-scum mistake to me. Given the flavor of the game is seems completely unreasonable that two people are the same type of Raman. Darla didn't have a safe-claim and CWR implied that all vanilla townies should be 'plain dry,' making her fake-claim a role which she felt should at least be believable.

Now if BB and Darla are scum, and WK seems to be confirmed, then one of them is the roleblocker and the other probably godfather. This makes the town power: doc, cop, jack of all trades, masons, bullet proof townie, and whatever Oman is. If Oman's role is pro-town, then this seems to be unusually balanced towards town. However, almost any 2 scum left makes it look like the game is balanced towards town.


CWR is highly likely town. The only way he's scum is if scum received the 'townie' PM, of which only Darla has. There's no 'townie' PM on the first page and that's the only way he'd know to claim plain, dry Raman.


If BB is town, Sthar8 is highly likely scum. If it's RB + Godfather left, then Sthar8 is Godfather. Muerrto, being the goon, would be the best choice for sending in NKs, since he's the most disposable. Sthar8 is jailkept N1, but no repercussions are seen. Muerrto dies D2, meaning the godfather has to send in NKs while the roleblocker sends in the block. Sthar8 is jailkept, no kill goes off, but RB goes off and no cop result is obtained.

I think this situation is less likely than BB being scum, because Sthar8 has done a good job of playing like a bulletproof townie would.



The weird thing about scum having a RB is that the cop got an investigation off N1. Don't have a great explanation for that yet, nor do I completely understand Oman's death, regardless of the scum team.

[strife220]

No. I don't know any other people who are 100% innocent.

Do either you or Strife have recruiting abilities or is it just the two of you?

And have you have the chance to talk together yet or was there some requirement for it?

No recruiting abilities. We got to talk both N1 and N2. N1 we talked a fair bit about Oman, N2 we talked a fair bit about the claim - Food food's cryptography thingy and whatnot.

[strife220]

You didn't answer CWR's question, Darla

[strife220]

So, my list of probable remaining scum (in no particular order):

Sthar
Darla
Strife

Ummm.... you think one of the claimed masons is scum, but not the other?

Strife, that is why I was so Gun ho for his lynch. I *am* chicken. Well, the reason that "chicken is vanilla" was actually pretty good. The main problem with his statement is his focus on chicken, not chicken ramen. Still, the claim was a decent choice for vanilla, but I obviously knew otherwise. :Wink:

*Waits for CWR*
Actually, if people really thought about what I said, and the fact that I am "Chicken flavor," it should be pretty obvious what my role could be.

Lets address this again. You have claimed Jailkeeper. How does this post in any way imply that you're jailkeeper.

[strife220]

EBWOP

Might as well get to business.

Vote: Darla

The claim is terrible and deleting your PM is incredibly convenient. Everybody should be able to agree on this one.

[strife220]

3 posts in a row...


@Charter: CWR claimed plain dry raman. Darla then Also claimed plain dry raman. Unless you think the scum-team is CWR and Darla (all townies have powerroles?), how do you explain CWRs claim?

[strife220]

Yea Darla asking to be investigate is another scum-tell, given that scum possibly have a godfather and, failing that, some sort of roleblocking ability.

@CWR: I obviously agree with the Darla BB scum-team, but I don't udnerstand your first point. Kiwi's role is Creamy Chicken, so BB can't be plain chicken? Food is Spicy Chicken. Just because they have the same word doesn't mean they're the same role.

@BB: Sorry, I apparently did skim your EBWOP. It doesn't have much of an effect on my opinion, however. Implying that I'm scum because I 'keep missing your points' is a pretty big stretch. As far as I remember this is the only thing I actually missed, and the others just weren't relevant to whatever I was talking about. Also this:

And finally, I said it should be fairly obvious what my role COULD BE. Obviously it ISN'T vanilla town

still makes zero sense. If it does make sense, please fill in the blank:
"Based on my name-claim of Chicken Raman and my previous statements, it is fairly obvious that my role COULD be _________"


@Charter: The biggest problem with a CWR and Darla scumteam is that everybody else must be telling the truth (overpowered town), and CWR and Darla just couldn't come up with anything better than both claiming vanilla. It's a fairly unreasonable scum-team, as far as I can tell.



I think we're getting close to a lynch here, so

Mod: Vote count please

[strife220]

BB is chicken and is therefore the jailkeeper? Or that others 'use' their ramen powers while BB gets eaten himself?
It's certainly weird, but I don't think it should be used as a major strike against him. It's pretty hard for a mod to pick completely logical names for all their roles, and some games I've been in the connection between flavor and ability have been essentially nil. Food and I learned to communicate using our 'spicy powers.'

I think the much bigger issue here is the convenience of his claim (especially jailing sthar8), his lack of counter-claiming Muerrto, and the bumbling soft-claim that in no way matched 'jailkeeper.' He fits a scum profile very well.

[strife220]

There are lots of cases where townies have chosen to lie. More often than not, it does more harm than good. If you lied but successfully caught scum, then obviously that's a good thing. A more likely situation is you lie, don't catch scum, and then have to backtrack and tell everyone you were lying, which people won't look at fondly. So generally, if you're going to lie about something, you just need to take a close look at the risk-benefit ratio, and understand that scum have lots of motivation to lie as well, with you lumped into the same category.

So no, lying doesn't mean you'll definitely get lynched, but it's generally not a good choice unless you're confident there's a strong payoff.

[strife220]

I'd rather lynch Darla today because she's more likely to be scum (two plain dry raman?? deleted PM??). If BB is role-blocker, there isn't much damage he can do given the claimed roles. We have the ability to direct him as well, where he would be forced to role-block instead of make a kill (if RB can't do both). For example, if we lynch Darla and she flips Godfather, have BB jail the cop. If he's RBer, he'll be forced to use his RB instead of perform the kill (if that's how mechanics work with the RB role here). It also allows the doc to choose a different protection target.

[strife220]

@strife, Flameaxe is V/LA for a while so I don't know when we're going to get a votecount or end of the day.

Are mine and Sthar8's names/avatars really That similar?


Your logic on who is scum depending on what Darla flips is backwards. If Darla flips town, that means CWR is either definitely town, or has a copy of the plain, dry ramen role-PM

[strife220]

Forgot I asked for a votecount myself. Sthar8 asked for one in the post immediately preceeding yours too, charter


Darla is L-1 by my count

[strife220]

If BB protects the Cop, you can protect anyone you please. Regardless of if BB is scum or town, he's forced to 'protect' (or pretend to protect) WK, so WK won't get killed. The only person open to target is you, Charter, and scum seem to have a weird thing against killing you - perhaps because you have 2 strikes.

This only applies if Darla flips GF. If Darla flips RB, then we're even better off - BB should be able to prove his Jailkeeping ability because WK shouldn't get a night result.

[strife220]

If Darla flips scum, why shouldn't the jailer target the cop tonight? There will only be one scum left, and the cop investigation is not particularly useful at this point when it seems like BB is third scum. There are no other roles that can confirm BB's ability to block tonight.

[strife220]

Need BB to confirm

BB: If Darla flips scum, target WK. Confirm?

[strife220]

Darla's at L-1. Flameaxe is afk until tomorrow.

If Darla flips town, I think anybody but WK, Charter, and Sthar8 should be jailed - don't say who. Doc protects cop. Cop chooses his own investigation target.

[strife220]

I don't have a problem with ending the day early. No reason to wait out the deadline if we aren't going to start talking about something different. We can bring up the BB issue tomorrow when we know Darla's role and the jailkeep outcome

[strife220]

Asking the mod definitely won't solve that problem. It's basically asking him what BB's role is.

What if BB is a roleblocker and can kill as well as block? If Darla flips Godfather, have BB

not

jail me as proof and I'll investigate him. Charter will still protect me as usual. If Darla flips Roleblocker,

then

have BB jail me, and I'll know since I won't get a PM. Does this make sense?

Lets say BB is scum RBer that can kill and RB. If we tell him to jailkeep you, he'll roleblock you and kill someone else - town gets no information. If we tell him to jailkeep someone else, he'll still roleblock you and kill someone else - town gets no information. If Darla is GF and scum can RB and kill, you won't get your investigation off either way. If scum Can't RB and kill, then town gains by forcing BB to jailkeep you - it prevents a townie death at night.

Yes, if Darla flips RB, BB jailkeeps you.

[strife220]

^^

Sthar8 is correct
Someone hammer please and thank you

[strife220]

This conversation will be a lot more fulfilling after Darla flips scum

[strife220]

Yea, you weren't expected to protected WK last night because BB was expected to 'Jail' him.
But why Sthar8? Didn't he claim bulletproof townie? As in, the role that needed protection the least?


Would like to hold off on BB's lynch until he gets a word in.

[strife220]

What part doesn't make sense? I agree BB is most likely to be scum, but I don't want to lynch him before he speaks.

[strife220]

I protected CWR last night, I thought the plan was I could protect whoever I wanted? I figured that he was the least likely to be scum and also pretty likely for a NK after outing Darla like that.

vote BB
That's lynch-1!

Oops. Now I'm the one getting everyone mixed up. I thought Charter protected you, Sthar8. Turns out I just can't read

[strife220]

I protected CWR last night, I thought the plan was I could protect whoever I wanted? I figured that he was the least likely to be scum and also pretty likely for a NK after outing Darla like that.

vote BB
That's lynch-1!

Oops. Now I'm the one getting everyone mixed up. I thought Charter protected you, Sthar8. Turns out I just can't read.

[strife220]

Thanks BB. Care to say who you think the last scum is and why?


I think the chance of a 4-man scum group is low enough to not even consider, given that we have revealed a SK and a whatever-the-heck Oman was. The chance of there being a RBer who can both kill and block is not completely unrealistic.
However, if BB-scum is a RB that can only block or kill, I think it's a reasonable choice for him to kill WK and play the 'rb + kill' card; else, he'd never be able to make a NK for the rest of the game, since he'd be too busy blocking WK.

TLDR: I still think he's scum, I'll soon be voting him.



If BB does flip town, Charter's protection will be worthless, since scum will just role-block him and kill whoever they want. So there's no point in discussing night actions. A good re-read and a close look at the roles (CWR being the only one I'd consider 'confirmed') should reveal a lot.


Once BB says who he thinks scum is, I'll be ready for night.

[strife220]

Hey, BB's percentages actually add up to 100.

Thanks for the input.

Vote: BB

That's L-1. I'm happy with a lynch whenever.

[strife220]

Here's a paraphrase of a PM i sent to food last night, rather than re-typing everything out:



Last scum is Sthar8.
a) His claim. Everybody elses claim is fairly standard. Sthar8's claim is the odd one out. It gave him an excuse to breadcrumb doc and cop D1, with the option of claiming bulletproof in a situation where cop and doc were revealed
b) Nobody died N2. BB jailed Sthar8 N2. So either Sthar8 is scum and sent out the kill, or scum tried to kill Sthar8. Sthar8 hadn't breadcrumbed a power-role like everyone else did, so I find it unlikely that scum tried to kill him. It also makes sense that Sthar8, as roleblocker, wouldn't send in the kill the first night (with Muerrto the goon alive), but would send it in after Muerrto died.

I didn't re-read the game, but I imagine the situation would fit pretty well. The only other option is that Charter (doc) is scum, which seems unlikely.



Food agreed with me

[strife220]

We have no information roles (cop = dead), and I'm a confirmed townie. So all a night will do is let scum kill me. No purpose.

Might as well say who Charter

[strife220]

Doc not getting killed N1 is very surprising. However, regardless of who's scum, I can't wrap my head around why Oman was killed. N2 there was no kill, so who knows why the doc survived - having 2 strikes is a decent explanation. After role-claim, there was no need to kill the doc given that the role-blocker can clearly block and make kills. So the only strange result is N1, which is unexplainable any way.

Game is perfectly balanced if Oman wasn't pro-town, which I think is true.


I definitely think CWR is town. I'm much much more confident Sthar8 is scum than Charter, and if that's all Sthar8 can muster up, I don't see a point in excessive discussion.

Vote: Sthar8

If you think more needs to be said, go ahead and pose some questions. Charter will surely pick Sthar8 over himself, so it's up to you to either lynch Sthar8 or change my mind.

[strife220]

CWR being scum is too unlikely to consider.

[strife220]

Eh. Of course if you wanna re-read to be Extra sure then go ahead. But I'll be shocked if you come up with a case against him that's anywhere close to the case against Sthar8.

Waiting on CWR. No need to argue excessively with Sthar8 if we're all on the same page.

[strife220]

Time you asked for? To do what?

Mod

I know it's only been like 44 hours, but could we get a prod on CWR?

[strife220]

Just to chirp in,
Scum have no motivation to send in a kill tonight if a no-lynch was reached. At some point the four of us will have to reach a majority.

[strife220]

Well thank you.

sthar, you seem to be under-estimating the intelligence of the scum which I think is a bad play. We should always assume that the scum are going to make it harder for the town, right?

Strife, why are you convinced it's sthar?

I think I posted my reasoning fairly well already. Bad claim, no kill N2 (when BB jailed him), process of elimination, no play inconsistent with being scum, process of elimination, etc etc

[strife220]

Are you re-reading still CWR? Are you undecided, or heavily leaning one way, or what?

[strife220]

I'll do a re-read on Charter later tonight and see if I can come up with a defense on why he doesn't make a lot of sense as scum.

[strife220]

Did a bit of digging on 'all posts by...'
Darla didn't actually address Sthar8 a single time through the entire game.

Charter did some early day voting on Darla.

Yea didn't come up with anything particularly incriminating for either candidate. Maybe I'll try an actual re-read later.


In the meantime:
Sthar8, why do you think there was no kill N2?

[strife220]

You breadcrumbed cop, doc, and vig. So scum decided to try to kill you, even though the cop was outed, you didn't counter-claim the doc after 2 days, it was clear we didn't have a vig, AND there were 3 people that explicitly claimed powerroles?

[strife220]

That left no need for roleblocking on Night four, and a choice between CWR, food, and strife for the nk. Not once since day 1 has strife expressed any doubt in the doc claim. Therefore strife was the most likely ally our false doctor could expect coming into today. I don't know why scum decided to kill food over CWR, because CWR had expressed doubt in the doc claim much earlier (though he was shouted down for it by charter and Muerrto, hmmm). Either way, it was mainly irrelevant, because strife had already expressed his confidence that neither food nor CWR could be scum.

Funny. Food was the only one to explicitly say in thread:

I agree with a lynch on BB.

Vote Beyond_Birthday

...
If BB turns up town I suggest we target Sthar8.

[strife220]

Good point ahead:

Sthar8, we know you or Charter is a RBer that can also perform kills. Since WK got an investigation off N1, RBer must have used his power on someone else. If Charter is scum, why do you think he didn't RB the cop?

[strife220]

You're right, that's probably exactly what happened. But the same situation applies to either you or Charter being scum, I believe. Kiwi said something about killing Muerrto of Liam flipped town, so Kiwi would be an obvious role-block target. I still have no idea why Oman died though - cop investigation seems a weird reason given that he already claimed a useless power-role.

[strife220]

So deadline is in like... 3 or 4 days? Going to need an opinion here CWR...


LA for a few days.

[strife220]

Bah... looks like we'll be going to no lynch. I'll have a chance to argue with you (CWR) hopefully before deadline.

*Just glancing at my games for votes - still v/la

[strife220]

Hah... that's not bad Sthar8. I'm trying to come up with a situation to refute it, but I'm having trouble.

When is deadline? I have to go back and fact check. I really can't come up with an explanation why scum made the kill choices they did n1 and n2 if Charter was scum, but Wk not getting a result N2 is damning on Charter.

[strife220]

To simplify Sthar8's argument:

WK didn't get a result from night 2. BB said he jailed Sthar8 night 2. Therefore, Sthar8 could not have roleblocked WK, and is thus not scum.

I can't come up with a realistic situation that counters this. You, Charter?


I think this is an incredibly appropriate time for a deadline extension as well.

[strife220]

Flameaxe has been afk for a few days - he just got replaced in another game I'm reading.

If Charter can't come up with a realistic explanation I'm going to hammer. The reasoning is solid.

[strife220]

Grats Sthar8 for putting down an awesome argument.
Grats CWR for not following my default "Sthar8 must be scum" tunnel-vision attitude D5.

I started the day 90% sure Sthar8 was scum, but I kept getting less and less confident through the day. Sthar8 played much more pro-town than Charter, but I thought the facts (no kill N2, way more likely a doc than bulletproof townie in game) were just too strong evidence. Very glad you realized the role-blocker thing.

I don't think Charter's bus was that strong, nor that inappropriate. A cop with a guilty meant Muerrto was guaranteed to be lynched eventually. And Darla's awkward claim meant the same. After those points, buddies have nothing to do but bus.

[strife220]

If food and I were alive I'm pretty sure we would have lost a few hours into the day.


I still don't understand why scum made their N1 choices. The fact that Oman died made it fairly obvious that Kiwi did not try to kill him. I guess that would have held more credibility if Kiwi said in game 'weird, I targetted him as asked and he died!'

Why Sthar8 N2? You could have killed the cop and Charter could simply argue he was RB'd. What role did you think Sthar8? Given all the claimed power, me-scum would have guessed him to be Vanilla with just the general opinion that massclaims = bad.

Where's Oman..

[strife220]

Why did you counter-claim Liam and what was your role. Town or neutral or... ?

[strife220]

I still don't understand why scum made their N1 choices. The fact that Oman died made it fairly obvious that Kiwi did not try to kill him. I guess that would have held more credibility if Kiwi said in game 'weird, I targetted him as asked and he died!'

We had to block Kiwi, he was going to kill me that was obvious from the thread. Still no clue why WK investigated me, that was blind luck and without that we would've been fine.

But since Kiwi was targetting Oman(supposedly, Oman DID ask him to and maybe he changed his mind) killing Oman made it look like Kiwi did it as asked and Oman was wrong about his role and Kiwi targetting him.

It also set up the doctor protection.

Was again blind luck BB jailed Esthar. Basically some really lucky power role targets cost us the game.

Oh, and Charter claimed 'mysterious new flavor' and you guys bought it hehe.

Can't speak for night 2 since I was dead.

Don't forget the blind 'luck' that Oman accidentally counter-claimed Liam (prove-able role), or that Charter, who was caught as scum D1, fake-claimed the one role that Wasn't in the game despite it being the most likely.



So how was Oman supposed to win if Kiwi got lynched before recruiting him?