So I'm pretty much like the best Mafia player ever, right? So I just walk into a game and I
And feast I will.
VOTE: rb
You dare offend our soon-to-be god-king Trump? Onto the no-fly list with ye!In post 12, Gamma Emerald wrote:What.
That eat a kitten bit sounds like you are spoofing Donald Trump, sorrynotsorry.
>missing the whole point of RVS to be honestIn post 13, xyzzy wrote:that was a very poignant speech, Comparing Realities. very moving.
of the two meaningless wagons so far, this is the one that feels like it has slightly more behind it (plus, that dabbing panda is weird):
VOTE: keyenpeydee
Pros:In post 17, Mas y Menos wrote:Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.
We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.
Thoughts?
~menos
There comes a point where more townspeople create more chaos than anything. It depends on their personality; you are assuming that town is naturally inclined to work together, and that idea makes me laugh. Why work together when your partner might braek yo nees that very night?In post 20, Mas y Menos wrote:So what you think of delaying lynches to ensure a town win on day 3?
I doubt we will lynch 2 scum days 1 and 2. Statistically thats not likely.
Also would be harder to lynch a scum on day 3 if there are only 1 of them.
And if we just do mislynches then there are less town to figure it out.
I think we should do it!
~Menos
In post 21, xyzzy wrote:and go into day 3 with basically no info besides who died nights 1 and 2 and which players agreed to no lynch? that seems like a wildly bad idea
like how are you proposing that we'd scumhunt without actually lynching anyone?<--This sentiment exactlythat seems difficult at best. that'd basically be giving scum free reign to set up day 3 however they like
I'm gonna check the math real quick but I'm pretty sure even just based on random choices that's a subpar choice for the town to make. also I'm guessing that callforjudgment already did that math and came to the conclusion that a ruleset allowing for a no lynch to happen explicitly does not make the game mathematically more breakable that way??? probably.
No, we do not have an objective 40% chance to hit scum. If we go into D3 versus two scum, and we don't have damning enough evidence on one, we lose, full stop. There is no middle ground, no chance we win if we waste our first two days, which, ironically, makes lynching today all the more imperative.In post 26, Gamma Emerald wrote:Thinking on it, we should play normally. We hit scum Days 1 or 2, we have an extra day to get information. If we mislynch both days, we have an objective 40% chance to win.
Bad ideas D1 =/= scummyIn post 27, keyenpeydee wrote:First of all, On that post, You said we should just skip D1 and D2 because we auto win when we lynched a Mafia D3. So how do we lynch scum if we don't have any evidences and info?In post 25, Mas y Menos wrote:What do you not like about it Key?In post 24, keyenpeydee wrote:I don't like this post.
~Menos
NL-ing on D1 and D2 is never a good choice. There's still a chance that if we lynched a mafia D1 or D2, We can use some things that he town read the most, Which have a possibility it's his scum buddy.
For me, you are the most scummy here and I don't get your point.
VOTE: Mas y Menos
I'll run my own simulation and check it to your own:In post 33, xyzzy wrote:I'm not sure whether I did this math completely correctly (the first set of numbers add up to 1.002, which might be a rounding error, or it might be that I missed something???? not sure) but the numbers mostly match the numbers the original thread for this setup had, which maybe I just should've checked there first,but whatever
anyway here's stats for town odds if we lynch d1 and d2 vs no lynch d1 and d2. I didn't check the numbers for if we only lynch one of those days because I'm pretty sure the general rule that town odds are better with an even number of players still applies with how d3 works:
7/9*5/7*3/5 = .333 (no scum ever lynched, scum win)
7/9*2/7*4/5*2/3 = .119 (scum lynched d1 or d2, scum win) (2 ways this can happen)
7/9*5/7*2/5 = .222 (no scum lynched d1 or d2, scum lynched d3, town win)
7/9*2/7*3/5*2/3 = .089 (scum lynched d1 or d2, town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town win) (2 ways this can happen)
2/9*1/7 = .032 (scum lynched d1 and d2, town win)
43.1% chance of town win if we lynch day 1 and day 2
5/7*3/5 = .429 (town lynched d3 and d4, scum win)
5/7*2/5*2/3 = .190 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town lynched d5, scum win)
5/7*2/5*1/3 = .095 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4 and d5, town win)
2/7 = .286 (scum lynched d3, town win)
38.1% chance of town win if we no lynch day 1 and day 2
so it's objectively worse to no lynch
also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.
UhhhhhmmmmmIn post 37, xyzzy wrote:that being said I think it would be wise to lynch our second-highest scum suspect d2. that's kind of a gimmick, but it's one that still focuses on having a worthwhile lynch d2 while giving us an ideal d3
In post 38, Mas y Menos wrote:Likewise, I dont trust your math at all because it hasn't been tested by practical application.In post 33, xyzzy wrote:also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.
Theory math sucks.
~Mas Y
1) You are made of theoretical mathematicsIn post 49, Mas y Menos wrote:Thats not direct evidence dipshit thats fucking theoritical math.In post 48, xyzzy wrote:the mathematical probability of certain events happening is literally half of the entire basis on which the balance of mafia games is based (the other half is that town is, on average, not that good). you're arguing that town should do something that is objectively not in their best interest when you have direct evidence for why that's the case right in front of you
~Mas Y
1) Mafia, duh. It's so much more fun to be a wolf than a sheep. I hatehateIn post 68, Gamma Emerald wrote:Here it is:
1: What is your preferred faction?
2: What would you say you bring to the game that others don't?
3: Tell me a bit about your username, signature, and/or avatar.
R.I.P Deathnote on Netflix, nobody got to school on time on the first of SeptemberIn post 74, Alchemist21 wrote:We're not No Lynching Days 1 and 2. The reason scum lynches on D1 are uncommon are because of the higher ratio of Town:scum. Even if we're wrong the lynches thin out the suspect pool and give us info to work with.
P.S. Why are so many people switching over to Death Note avatars these days? Did everyone just binge the series at the same back-to-school time or something?
4) It seemed like a fun hobby. This is my third real game. I lost the first as town because I was bad, and lost the second as the traitor to two Mafia who lynched me because I was too towny, goshdarnittoheck. That win belongs to them, not me.In post 81, Gamma Emerald wrote:I guess I'll add those.
4: What is your experience with Mafia?
5: Who here have you played with before?
I knew what you were saying--that's why I used the word "ironically". Just because we agree on one point, it doesn't excuse making a bad estimation at scum's power.In post 105, Gamma Emerald wrote:CR, you missed the point of post 26. I have the same thoughts as you.
If you don't read what I have to say, then you are completely failing to "find and lynch scum". That's like saying you want to get rich without ever having to go to work.In post 106, rb wrote:I'm not reading these walls or this math. The best way to play is to find and lynch scum and to facilitate such discussion.
Why?
Why?In post 121, Mas y Menos wrote:Comparing Realities is the only one pinging me right now:
VOTE: Comparing Realities
~Mas Y
Most of these reads are just my untrained high school psychology reads, possible freudian slips Mas might perpetrate. They're all highly subjective, but I'm confident you'll be able to see where I'm coming from.In post 100, Comparing Realities wrote:Bad ideas D1 =/= scummyIn post 27, keyenpeydee wrote:Spoiler: Unnecessary backstory
First of all, On that post, You said we should just skip D1 and D2 because we auto win when we lynched a Mafia D3. So how do we lynch scum if we don't have any evidences and info?
NL-ing on D1 and D2 is never a good choice. There's still a chance that if we lynched a mafia D1 or D2, We can use some things that he town read the most, Which have a possibility it's his scum buddy.
For me, you are the most scummy here and I don't get your point.
VOTE: Mas y Menos
Bad ideas = possible D1 lynch target if no explicitly scummier persons emerge
If having a bad idea makes you scum, then town is the minority faction. If you want to seriously argue that this is serious evidence in favor of Mas being scum, then you first have to demonstrate why scum!Mas wants to put their neck on the line by seeding the conscious with ideas that they know are bad. Furthermore, I don't think that scum!Mas would be inclined to introduce a volatile and generally unfamiliar tactic that would indubitably make them the target of the game's first controversy, while at the same time possibly being a helpful tool for town.
So, keeping this in mind as I read Mas y Menos: I had no direct evidence on them for the time being,but, if the talkative head of Mas appears to know this is a bad idea, they are scum with a peculiar courage, and if they don't, they are not scum.
That's the same reasoning I had with Mas. They made their point, tried to ram it through, but when it failed, they immediately dropped the case.In post 135, xyzzy wrote:I'm gonna keep my vote on Mas y Menos because I feel like they're trying to fly under the radar so that we'll forget anything scummy they've done, but rb is definitely a solid lynch candidate at the moment
XYZ and key might individually be scummy (both have bad vote patterns essentially) but I don't see why they're a good team together. Key seemed to have a predisposition towards lynching XYZ instead of rb, remember? Dropped the rb vote immediately, unvoting in the exact same post, almost as if he was predetermined to lynch xyzzy and the results of the ISO were inconsequential, because he'd already mad cup his mind he was going to decide xyzzy was worthy of a vote. BlackStar said as much in the rantument. For that reason alone, I don't think key/xyz is a viable team.In post 234, Mas y Menos wrote:Well I think its kind of funny both my scumreads are now on my wagon.In post 213, rb wrote:Mas, thoughts on this wagon? I have some, but you're the one at risk so I want you to say it first.
I think this game is simple enough as XYZ and Key being the scum team.
Everyone else by default is town.
~Mas Y
What about that readslist possibly pegs the BTD6 as town from your point of view? He said that I'm (your biggest detractor) town, you're scum, and BlackStar, the one who started the wagon you now support, is merely "null". You should be diametrically opposed to him, but you say he's town for no reason, other than your two biggest FOSes being slightly scum.In post 236, Mas y Menos wrote:Yeah, I think this is town.In post 184, BTD6_maker wrote:Null-weak Town: RB, Comparing Realities
Null: Blackstar, Gamma Emerald
Nullscum: Keyenpeydee, Xyzzy
Weak scum: Mas y Menos,Alchemist21
Does this help?
~Mas Y
But by creating this "distance", he brings attention to xyzzy who otherwise was mostly unremarkable, and then this lynch is what triggers Black's rantument. That's a terrible thing to do to his partner.In post 237, Mas y Menos wrote:Pretty sure this was attempt to create distance.In post 189, keyenpeydee wrote:rb, well i did an iso read and gotta say I'm actually surprised that her vote still stays on mas y menos despite saying you're a strong lynch candidate which is kinda alarming for me.
VOTE: xyzzy
Care to explain why rb is a strong lynch candidate? Make it detailed.
And I'm sorry for voting you, rb because I just don't like what you're doing rn. Explain it would get me replaced but Imma trust you now. And also, I did a xyzzy iso so I don't quite sheep you.
~Mas Y
"I like Black Star's case on Key and it makes sense..."In post 246, keyenpeydee wrote:Why this post is scummy?In post 241, Alchemist21 wrote:I like Black Star's case on Key and it makes sense. I could compromise on xyzzy if I had to, but I'd still prefer the BTD lynch to xyzzy.
Fire's reaction to L-1 here should leave no doubt that they're Town. He'd be trolling at this point rather than trying to get out serious thoughts on the game.
VOTE: keyenpeydee
@Mas y menos, why do you think BTD is solid Town? What am I missing here?
1.) Sheeped BlackStar
2.) Prefers BTD lynch but votes for me.
If you prefer BTD lynch, Then push for it. Don't sheep BlackStar.
Hold up.In post 254, keyenpeydee wrote:So what if, If I'm town?
Thank you for your eloquent, precisely contemplated pro-town rebuttal of a major wagon.In post 265, rb wrote:Mas wagon is shit.
It's not that easy.In post 267, rb wrote:I think there's probably scum on it. I have to rethink my key townread because a thing happened that I'm not so sure I like.
Their vote on me looked town, but the way they moved it didn't. It didn't make sense for town to move vote, but it made sense for scum because I was townreading them. They moved vote because they didn't want to vote an "ally" and had zero suspicion of me townreading them. Shit he even apologized for voting me.
I rarely think it's so easy to find scum but I think key really might be scum with xyzzy.
You do realize you're doing the exact same thing key as initially FOSed for, right?
Why am I null? I was scum until I made my second megapost. How did that convince you I was null instead of scum?In post 289, Mas y Menos wrote:Town: Rb and Alchemist21 and BTD6
Lean Town: Blackstar
Null: Comparing Realities, Gamma Emerald
Scum: XYZ, Keyenpeydee
So yeah, totally fine if we rushed this day too. Beyond gamma I think everyone else is for very likely town on the wagon.
~Mas Y
Please be a joke?In post 292, Gamma Emerald wrote:For his opening.In post 291, Mas y Menos wrote:How is CR a townread for you?In post 283, Gamma Emerald wrote:Reads:
Town: CR, rb
Null: BTD6, BlackStar, Mas
Scum: key, xyzzy, Alchemist
For making a wall post?
~Mas Y
rb.In post 314, rb wrote:Can every person voting key please summarise the reasons they're voting key?
In post 35, rb wrote:Also I play the game by finding and lynching scum, everything else is arbitrary and boring and shit imo. I'm not playing gimmicks.
In post 106, rb wrote:I'm not readingthese walls or this math.The best way to play is to find and lynch scumand to facilitate suchdiscussion. Gimmicks can work, but there's no point being insistent about them if others don't want to do it.
In post 134, rb wrote:AndI'm just fine as a town playerand generallymanage to find scum even when not bothering to interactat length with long-winded players. It doesn't affect my ability to parse the game nor does it stop people from being able to sort my slot becauseI still contribute.
In post 141, rb wrote:Because as far as I'm concerned, the game is about finding scum, not having bad arguments over semantics and theory and clogging up the thread with so much intricate detail that it becomes more like a part-time job than a game and demotivates people from wanting to play. Motivated players and enjoyable game = co-operative,activetown.
In post 142, rb wrote:And yes, it might look likeI'mbeing flippant inonly skimreadingbig walls but it's not.Iplay better this way because how good I play is directly linked to how much effort I'm willing to put into playing, which is directly linked to how much enjoyment I'm having.
As long as it doesn't stopmefinding scum, preventingmyslot from being sorted andI'mstill active,it's not hindering the town.
In post 145, rb wrote:Right so even though I mentionedI skim-readthe wall in 108, we're going to freak out andpretend like I'm not reading the walls anyway?Cool.
p-edit: Fuck off.
In post 147, rb wrote:You're not even remotely digesting what I'm saying. Stop making hypocritical remarks and clearly not reading what *I'M* posting and maybe I'll take that advice seriously.
In post 149, rb wrote:I even announced thatI actually skimmed the wall in 108, andyou're sitting here telling me I have to read every postas if the way I'm playing is stopping the town from being successful. Stop trying to tellmethe best way formeto play the game.
Ironically, rb understands town a little too well.In post 161, rb wrote:Also to be clear I'm not arguing over CR's wall. People are overreacting and acting like I'm not reading the game, when I am. It took them 40 posts to realise this because it's actually them not paying attention. Now it's you.
Good job figuring that out; now can you explain why?In post 351, Mas y Menos wrote:In post 332, Gamma Emerald wrote:I still think key is scum, but I think my vote is best applied elsewhere.
UNVOTE:In post 334, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don't know who to vote right now though.this series of posts is very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very badIn post 336, Gamma Emerald wrote:Actually, I have an idea where to go.
VOTE: xyzzy
Multiple people have connected you to key. What do you have to say about that?
~Menos
Wall posting is good for me. As he'd said earlier, we ought to play to our own strengths. Just as he's not going to sacrifice his time and energy digging through "1,000 words of NAI semantics", neither am I going to make myself less efficient to conform to the playstyles of others. My mistake was not making "wall posts" (they're not insurmountable, my earlier one was only 500 words long), it was failing to listen to rb explain why he doesn't typically like wall posts--they all too frequently turn into useless nonsense. The obvious solution is to not write useless nonsense.In post 357, Mas y Menos wrote:He said he wouldn't read wall posts, maybe you shouldn't wall post if you want him to read them.In post 344, Comparing Realities wrote:Also, rb is confirmed not reading any of my posts, and probably none of you guys' either. So I'm taking his reads with a grain of salt for the time being.
~Mas Y
What do you have to respond to my accusations against you? Specifically, I've argued that you knew your plan was a bad idea, but you pushed it almost relentlessly, then suddenly dropped it when it became clear it had almost no support.
Thank you. Alchemist, is this true?In post 362, Mas y Menos wrote:I don't agree my plan is a bad idea.In post 361, Comparing Realities wrote:What do you have to respond to my accusations against you? Specifically, I've argued that you knew your plan was a bad idea, but you pushed it almost relentlessly, then suddenly dropped it when it became clear it had almost no support.
Alchemist can note that I had a similar plan in a different game and i 100% believed in it.
I did drop it because no one was supporting it and it was worthless to keep pushing.
~Mas Y
No, no, no,In post 374, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: key
In fact, I've changed my mind. I think rb is key's partner now.
In post 100, Comparing Realities wrote:>missing the whole point of RVS to be honestIn post 13, xyzzy wrote:that was a very poignant speech, Comparing Realities. very moving.
of the two meaningless wagons so far, this is the one that feels like it has slightly more behind it (plus, that dabbing panda is weird):
VOTE: keyenpeydee
You don't join one of two main wagons simply because theotherwagon has too much pressure, that undermines the effect we're trying to create, that sheer psychological torment of having everyone senselessly hate you for no explicable reason beyond your ugly dabbing panda face. If anything, you want to add as much pressure as possible to a preexisting wagon, to, you know, elicit a reaction and stuff~ Otherwise the whole point of RVS is moot.
Not saying this is a scum read, butassuming xyzzy is scum, rb and key are the most plausible partners due to the converse possibilities of majority anti-maintenance and WIFOM.
In post 299, Comparing Realities wrote:Spoiler: Non-essential
Essentially, Black isn't likely key's partner because Black started the key wagon.
XYZ and key might individually be scummy (both have bad vote patterns essentially) but I don't see why they're a good team together.In post 234, Mas y Menos wrote:Well I think its kind of funny both my scumreads are now on my wagon.In post 213, rb wrote:Mas, thoughts on this wagon? I have some, but you're the one at risk so I want you to say it first.
I think this game is simple enough as XYZ and Key being the scum team.
Everyone else by default is town.
~Mas YKey seemed to have a predisposition towards lynching XYZ instead of rb, remember? Dropped the rb vote immediately, unvoting in the exact same post, almost as if he was predetermined to lynch xyzzy and the results of the ISO were inconsequential, because he'd already mad cup his mind he was going to decide xyzzy was worthy of a vote. BlackStar said as much in the rantument. For that reason alone, I don't think key/xyz is a viable team.
The thing about key is thathe's a compatible partner with, like, everyone except those currently voting him. If key is scum, and another scum is currently on the wagon, it's got to be BTD6 bussing, wanting to look good despite his moderate lurking, and betting on nobody actually wanting to hammer so early in the day. We have ten more days, after all; who wants to be the one to cut that short?
But by creating this "distance", he brings attention to xyzzy who otherwise was mostly unremarkable, and then this lynch is what triggers Black's rantument.In post 237, Mas y Menos wrote:Pretty sure this was attempt to create distance.In post 189, keyenpeydee wrote:rb, well i did an iso read and gotta say I'm actually surprised that her vote still stays on mas y menos despite saying you're a strong lynch candidate which is kinda alarming for me.
VOTE: xyzzy
Care to explain why rb is a strong lynch candidate? Make it detailed.
And I'm sorry for voting you, rb because I just don't like what you're doing rn. Explain it would get me replaced but Imma trust you now. And also, I did a xyzzy iso so I don't quite sheep you.
~Mas YThat's a terrible thing to do to his partner.Therefore likely not his partner
It's not that easy.In post 267, rb wrote:I think there's probably scum on it. I have to rethink my key townread because a thing happened that I'm not so sure I like.
Their vote on me looked town, but the way they moved it didn't. It didn't make sense for town to move vote, but it made sense for scum because I was townreading them. They moved vote because they didn't want to vote an "ally" and had zero suspicion of me townreading them. Shit he even apologized for voting me.
I rarely think it's so easy to find scum but I think key really might be scum with xyzzy.If they are both scum, I will eat my underwear and I'll send you the video.
Key and xyzzy hurt each other, they can't be a team.
In post 343, Comparing Realities wrote:(Gamma rather overtly unvotes key for no explicable reason, despite saying key is scum. This is so mind-bendingly strange, I don't think mafia could think like that--and say it publicly.)
...
Does this mean Gamma is town?
He can't bey key's partner, right?
In post 375, Comparing Realities wrote:No, no, no,In post 374, Gamma Emerald wrote:VOTE: key
In fact, I've changed my mind. I think rb is key's partner now.no![/n]If rb were key's partner, then why would key call out for rb to hammer?
In post 401, Mas y Menos wrote:I still think XYZ is really really scummy.
I don't know if its just bias.
I really thought the game was Key and XYZ.
BTW again, fuck that self hammer when we had more than 10 days left.
~Mas Y
And yet me and Gamma remain your biggest scumread why, exactly...?In post 402, Mas y Menos wrote:This is what I likely think it is in:
Gamma Emerald/XYZ
Gamma Emerald/Comparing Realities
Comparing Realities/Gamma Emerald
Comparing Realities/XYZ
I think its one of those 4 pairs.
Really really unsure which.
I am pretty conf on Alchemist and Blackstar.
Pretty sure BTD6 is also town.
~Mas Y
In post 482, Mas y Menos wrote:In post 459, Comparing Realities wrote:Why is nobody talking about how Black Star threw the wagon from Mas to Key? We've been over this before. Also, I'm waiting on a certain stimuli to present a certain argument.
Scum: Mas,Black, Alchemist
Town: Gamma, Xyzzy, BTD6This is by far the worst reads list in this game yet.
~Mas Y
Sounds like you think my reads are actually pretty good.In post 481, Mas y Menos wrote:Wait in what world are you the person with the second lowest scumreads?In post 465, xyzzy wrote:Alchemist21: 4
BlackStar: 4
BTD6_Maker: 1
Comparing Realities: 3
Gamma Emerald: 4
Mas y Menos: 3
xyzzy: 2
Thats a messed up world.
Alsoare scumread 4 times? Fuck that.Alchemist and Blackstar my two top scumreads
You all have bad reads and should feel ashamed
~Mas Y
You have to understand, I'm not good at making friends.In post 484, Mas y Menos wrote:In post 475, Comparing Realities wrote:...Could you unvote, actually? I want to be on the wagon, just as a matter of personal... personship. I started it, I should own it.
Plus I don't trust you to surprise shift your vote towards the end of the day.the fuck is this postIn post 477, Comparing Realities wrote:VOTE: Mas Y Menos
Nothing against you, really, I just want this to be a controlled, well-though out wagon. The anti-key.
~Menos
Misread that, then. Apologies.In post 486, Mas y Menos wrote:Are you rewording my posts?
I said BlackStar and Alchemist are my top 2 townreads.....
~Mas Y
In post 508, BlackStar wrote:It's also weird that he's been at L-1 for ages now and nobody has asked him to claim to anything
In post 511, BlackStar wrote:Really?In post 510, Gamma Emerald wrote:Well claiming has no point because there are no PRs.
...This whole time, you've operated under the presumption there were at least one or two PRs?In post 512, BlackStar wrote:Oh, you're right. I didn't look at the first post
In post 508, BlackStar wrote:It's also weird that he's been at L-1 for ages now and nobody has asked him to claim to anything
In post 510, Gamma Emerald wrote:Well claiming has no point because there are no PRs.
In post 511, BlackStar wrote:Really?In post 510, Gamma Emerald wrote:Well claiming has no point because there are no PRs.
In post 512, BlackStar wrote:Oh, you're right. I didn't look at the first post
In post 513, BlackStar wrote:If you hadn't said anything though, someone might've have slipped and fake claimed and then we'd know that they were scum
In post 514, Comparing Realities wrote:...This whole time, you've operated under the presumption there were at least one or two PRs?
In post 515, BlackStar wrote:I've never been in a game that didn't have one, so I just assumed that this one did too
In post 520, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don't quite agree here.In post 518, xyzzy wrote:this is a really bizarre thing to not notice, but it feels like a mistake that scum wouldn't make.In post 515, BlackStar wrote:I've never been in a game that didn't have one, so I just assumed that this one did too
Why do you praise alchemist, but not xyzzy?In post 537, Gamma Emerald wrote:Hm, I never noticed that. Alchemist just did good.
In post 109, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 154, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 207, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 281, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 303, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 325, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 396, callforjudgement wrote:
was lynched. He was akeyenpeydeeVanilla Townie.
Players have until 1am UTC on Sunday 18 September to submit their night actions, if any (automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-18 01:00:00)).
Day 2 will start at around that time (although ugh, you lot ended the day at an inconvenient time, so I might be a little late in starting it).
Kind of makes you wonder.
In post 17, Mas y Menos wrote:Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.
We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.
Thoughts?
~menos
In post 18, rb wrote:Scumclaim.In post 17, Mas y Menos wrote:Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.
We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.
Thoughts?
~menos
VOTE: mas y menos
In post 19, Mas y Menos wrote:I only claim scum as town though.
So that means I am town here.
~Menos
In post 20, Mas y Menos wrote:So what you think of delaying lynches to ensure a town win on day 3?
I doubt we will lynch 2 scum days 1 and 2. Statistically thats not likely.
Also would be harder to lynch a scum on day 3 if there are only 1 of them.
And if we just do mislynches then there are less town to figure it out.
I think we should do it!
~Menos
In post 21, xyzzy wrote:and go into day 3 with basically no info besides who died nights 1 and 2 and which players agreed to no lynch? that seems like a wildly bad idea
like how are you proposing that we'd scumhunt without actually lynching anyone? that seems difficult at best. that'd basically be giving scum free reign to set up day 3 however they like
I'm gonna check the math real quick but I'm pretty sure even just based on random choices that's a subpar choice for the town to make. also I'm guessing that callforjudgment already did that math and came to the conclusion that a ruleset allowing for a no lynch to happen explicitly does not make the game mathematically more breakable that way??? probably.
In post 24, keyenpeydee wrote:I don't like this post.In post 17, Mas y Menos wrote:Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.
We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.
Thoughts?
~menos
In post 26, Gamma Emerald wrote:Thinking on it, we should play normally. We hit scum Days 1 or 2, we have an extra day to get information. If we mislynch both days, we have an objective 40% chance to win.
Weirdly enough, key is the first one who really takes on Mas, has a four-post argument with them, Mas-key-Mas-key, but then xyzzy shows up with thirty minutes worth of math (look at the timestamps.) Would scum be so committed to a mere distancing maneuver that they'd be so meticulous about it? Then again, Mas does get pretty freaking salty with xyzzy, whereas for the rest of the game, Mas has actually been rather pleasant, so that might have been an act.In post 33, xyzzy wrote:I'm not sure whether I did this math completely correctly (the first set of numbers add up to 1.002, which might be a rounding error, or it might be that I missed something???? not sure) but the numbers mostly match the numbers the original thread for this setup had, which maybe I just should've checked there first,but whatever
anyway here's stats for town odds if we lynch d1 and d2 vs no lynch d1 and d2. I didn't check the numbers for if we only lynch one of those days because I'm pretty sure the general rule that town odds are better with an even number of players still applies with how d3 works:
7/9*5/7*3/5 = .333 (no scum ever lynched, scum win)
7/9*2/7*4/5*2/3 = .119 (scum lynched d1 or d2, scum win) (2 ways this can happen)
7/9*5/7*2/5 = .222 (no scum lynched d1 or d2, scum lynched d3, town win)
7/9*2/7*3/5*2/3 = .089 (scum lynched d1 or d2, town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town win) (2 ways this can happen)
2/9*1/7 = .032 (scum lynched d1 and d2, town win)
43.1% chance of town win if we lynch day 1 and day 2
5/7*3/5 = .429 (town lynched d3 and d4, scum win)
5/7*2/5*2/3 = .190 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town lynched d5, scum win)
5/7*2/5*1/3 = .095 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4 and d5, town win)
2/7 = .286 (scum lynched d3, town win)
38.1% chance of town win if we no lynch day 1 and day 2
so it's objectively worse to no lynch
also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.
This is completely irrelevant to the point I was getting at.In post 571, Alchemist21 wrote:Based on the cited thread and the credit to xyzzy in the OP of that thread seen here, it's probably more likely than not that xyzzy had already started working out some numbers for the game already, maybe even before the game even started, and only brought it up because No Lynching was discussed (which was also quick to come up in the cited thread). So just bringing up the math for it is probably null, and I certainly wouldn't make associatives based on it.
My point (really Gamma's) was that because xyzzy was the main person who engaged Mas for so long, and Mas was uncharacteristically salty during that interaction, it increases the likelihood of them being a team putting on a distancing play. The first post in which xyzzy fought with Mas is irrelevant; just because xyzzy used math that he was already familiar with, it doesn't exonerate him.In post 577, Alchemist21 wrote:Then what was your point?In post 575, Comparing Realities wrote:This is completely irrelevant to the point I was getting at.In post 571, Alchemist21 wrote:Based on the cited thread and the credit to xyzzy in the OP of that thread seen here, it's probably more likely than not that xyzzy had already started working out some numbers for the game already, maybe even before the game even started, and only brought it up because No Lynching was discussed (which was also quick to come up in the cited thread). So just bringing up the math for it is probably null, and I certainly wouldn't make associatives based on it.
You, Mas, and to a lesser extent, BTD6.In post 578, BlackStar wrote:Who else have you raised objections to?In post 576, Comparing Realities wrote:xyzzy, would you care to respond to my accusations instead of flat-out ignoring them like every other player I've raised objections to?
I want to know four things:In post 579, xyzzy wrote:can you clarify what specifically you're asking me to respond to? I don't really see anything in your ISO directed at me that I've not responded to, but if there's something you'd like a more specific response to, feel free to let me know.In post 576, Comparing Realities wrote:xyzzy, would you care to respond to my accusations instead of flat-out ignoring them like every other player I've raised objections to?
Eh, it's a scummy trait. It's alignment suggestive, but not alignment indicative. When I play as scum, I worry way more about what people think of me, encouraging me to be more careful. But I can see it being more of a personality trait than an in-game circumstance for you.In post 583, BTD6_maker wrote:Please explain how being controlled is scummy at all. In me, it is NAI but I want to know whether it is site meta that being controlled is scummy.In post 555, Comparing Realities wrote:I said it tongue-in-cheekily. BTD6 isnottoo townie; I contend he hasn't said much of anything that's alignment indicative. I cannot see anything he says as being more likely said by town than scum, or the other way around. He feels very controlled, which itself is a scummy trait, but in isolation is, again, not alignment indicative.
If scum lynched key because his reads were correct, then rb was killed because his reads were correct, then scum would definitely be the ones to be out there waving the WIFOM banner. They can't have anyone believing itIn post 584, BTD6_maker wrote:How skilled is Keyenpeydee as Town? Are his reads normally accurate? If so, that points to Xyzzy being scum, especially due to the RB kill. There are no PRs so leaving alie someone Townish who is too accurate in their reads is risky. However, this should be taken with a pinch of salt as the NK could be WIFOM.In post 564, Comparing Realities wrote:Remember my theory about rb's scumreads being correct? And how xyzzy was totally opposed to them? xyzzy never cited himself as rb's main scumread, but we all knew what he was thinking.
Spoiler: Loadsa votecounts
Kind of makes you wonder.
If xyzzy is scum, then the other scum was probably on the key wagon through its completion. Black Star, Mas Y Menos, Alchemist, and Gamma...
And yet, you're not voting him why...?In post 585, BlackStar wrote:I feel like mas would've been hammered already if he was town
Um, nobody is trying to convince us to hammer him? That's funny because last I remember, you were saying:In post 591, BlackStar wrote:If they're both on the wagon, why isn't anyone trying to convince us to hammer him? We've been sitting around doing nothing for days now.In post 590, Alchemist21 wrote:It's possible both scum are already on the wagon and nobody off the wagon wants to hammer.In post 585, BlackStar wrote:I feel like mas would've been hammered already if he was town
What exactly were you trying to do there, if not to encourage somebody to hammer Mas? Oh, come on.In post 585, BlackStar wrote:I feel like mas would've been hammered already if he was town
1) If you don't need to be popular, then why did you literally ask for validation before hammering?In post 597, BlackStar wrote:I don't need my decison to be popular. If I hammer him and then he flips town then I'll get lynched tomorrow and we'll lose. And don't know how you can believe that I'm scum buddies with anyone.