Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[Gamma Emerald]

Okay, I have to conclude that BTD6 is your current third scum read, based on past posts. Mas y Menos, Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy, Gamma Emerald

BlackStar

(1): Alchemist21

Gamma Emerald

(1): BlackStar

xyzzy

(1): Mas y Menos

Alchemist21

(1): BTD6_maker

Not voting

(1): Comparing Realities

With 7 votes in play, 4 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Sunday 2 October at 01:15 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-10-02 01:15:00)

)

[Comparing Realities]

BTD6 has got to be scum if only because nobody thinks he's scum.

[xyzzy]

BTD6 has got to be scum if only because nobody thinks he's scum.

this is some really invalid logic. it's possible that this is the case, but it certainly shouldn't be treated as implied.

[BTD6_maker]

BTD6 has got to be scum if only because nobody thinks he's scum.

That's the Too Townie fallacy.

This is interesting. My three scumreads are Alchemist, Mas, and Xyzzy. I could stick with Alchemist at the moment. I could also switch to Xyzzy or Mas if a wagon is required.
VOTE: Mas y Menos
Out of the three, this is my strongest so I will go with this one.

L-1

[Comparing Realities]

I said it tongue-in-cheekily. BTD6 is

not

too townie; I contend he hasn't said much of anything that's alignment indicative. I cannot see anything he says as being more likely said by town than scum, or the other way around. He feels very controlled, which itself is a scummy trait, but in isolation is, again, not alignment indicative.

[Comparing Realities]

Spoiler: All the posts made by BTD6 today

Blackstar, Comparing Realities, Gamma Emerald

Alchemist21, Mas y Menos, Xyzzy

VOTE: Mas y Menos

This is my strongest scumread. Personally, Alchemist is currently slightly weaker than Xyzzy, but both are scumreads.
If a consensus for second scumread is clear, I will switch.

I am waiting for Mas y Menos' and Alchemist's list. Then we can analyse the information to determine the ideal lynch candidate. (This is as Xyzzy has both of them in the scum list, so I am waiting to see whether they also have similar scmreads to each other/other players.)

What is better today, lynching Town or scum? Lynching scum is usually better for us, though it doesn't matter. If lynching scum is better, it is better to lynch our top scumread today. If not lynching scum is better, the ideal lynch would be the Towniest person. (This is probably not the case). My point is, in either case lynching the second scummiest is suboptimal. We should lynch the scummiest.

VOTE: Alchemist21

This is the person in the most scum lists.

Sorry for not posting that much. I have been very busy. Things should clear up fairly soon.

It is

possible

that lynching the Towniest is best, but highly unlikely. Lynchhing Town gives us a 40% win rate. Lynching scum gives us a 46.7% win rate. Thus it is generally better to lynch scum. That was just to show that the second scummiest is suboptimal no matter what.

BTD6 has got to be scum if only because nobody thinks he's scum.

That's the Too Townie fallacy.

This is interesting. My three scumreads are Alchemist, Mas, and Xyzzy. I could stick with Alchemist at the moment. I could also switch to Xyzzy or Mas if a wagon is required.
VOTE: Mas y Menos
Out of the three, this is my strongest so I will go with this one.

L-1

Read them. Everything there just sounds so bland and uninteresting. He's not saying much, just commenting on ongoing game developments, saying who he thinks is scum with mild to no reasoning behind them. The item that he spent the most time on up until now is whether to lynch the scummiest person, the second scummiest, or the towniest. The colloquial term is "filler", but this can be explained by his being busy in real life.

[Gamma Emerald]

BTD6 has got to be scum if only because nobody thinks he's scum.

That's the Too Townie fallacy.

This is interesting. My three scumreads are Alchemist, Mas, and Xyzzy. I could stick with Alchemist at the moment. I could also switch to Xyzzy or Mas if a wagon is required.
VOTE: Mas y Menos
Out of the three, this is my strongest so I will go with this one.

L-1

This feels like two posts glued together.

[Mas y Menos]

Okay, I have to conclude that BTD6 is your current third scum read, based on past posts. Mas y Menos, Please correct me if I'm wrong.

I guess so?
I am leaning more town on CR than BTD6 at the current moment. But I doubt its either of them.

Actually no, I am going to say its more likely CR than BTD6 if I am wrong on either of my scumreads.

If I am wrong about either Blackstar or ALchemist I really need to go by lynch or death. Cause I dont' see myself ever lynching either of those two.

~Mas Y

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

Mas y Menos

(3): xyzzy, Gamma Emerald, BTD6_maker

BlackStar

(1): Alchemist21

Gamma Emerald

(1): BlackStar

xyzzy

(1): Mas y Menos

Not voting

(1): Comparing Realities

With 7 votes in play, 4 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Sunday 2 October at 01:15 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-10-02 01:15:00)

)

[Alchemist21]

I hate the mas wagon. Doesn't give me any comfort that 2 of the 3 in my scumpile are voting him (and were also voting him yesterday).

VOTE: XyzzyVOTE:

[Alchemist21]

What happened to the vote tags?

VOTE: Xyzzy

[Alchemist21]

Oh, right. Forgot the /.

[Gamma Emerald]

(Off-topic)Yeah I saw your post in the test post topic.

[Comparing Realities]

Remember my theory about rb's scumreads being correct? And how xyzzy was totally opposed to them? xyzzy never cited himself as rb's main scumread, but we all knew what he was thinking.

Vote Count

Mas y Menos

(3):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

, xyzzy

rb

(2): BTD6_maker, Comparing Realities

Comparing Realities

(2): Gamma Emerald, Alchemist21

keyenpeydee

(1): BlackStar

Not voting

(1): Mas y Menos

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy,

keyenpeydee

rb

(2): BTD6_maker, Comparing Realities

Comparing Realities

(2): Alchemist21, Mas y Menos

keyenpeydee

(1): BlackStar

xyzzy

(1):

rb

Not voting

(1): Gamma Emerald

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy, Comparing Realities

Comparing Realities

(1): Mas y Menos

keyenpeydee

(1): BlackStar

BTD6_maker

(1): Alchemist21

Not voting

(2): Gamma Emerald, BTD6_maker

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(4): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald

Mas y Menos

(3): xyzzy, Comparing Realities, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(4): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald

Mas y Menos

(3): xyzzy, Comparing Realities, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(4): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald

Mas y Menos

(3): xyzzy, Comparing Realities, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(5): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald,

keyenpeydee

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(1):

rb

Not voting

(1): Comparing Realities

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes were required for a lynch.
Deadline was Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

keyenpeydee

was lynched. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Players have until 1am UTC on Sunday 18 September to submit their night actions, if any (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-18 01:00:00)

).
Day 2 will start at around that time (although ugh, you lot ended the day at an inconvenient time, so I might be a little late in starting it).

rb

was killed overnight. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Vote Count

Not voting

(7): Comparing Realities, BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, xyzzy, BTD6_maker

With 7 votes in play, 4 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Sunday 2 October at 01:15 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-10-02 01:15:00)

)

Kind of makes you wonder.

If xyzzy is scum, then the other scum was probably on the key wagon through its completion. Black Star, Mas Y Menos, Alchemist, and Gamma...

[Comparing Realities]

All of my reads are shattered. Time to start again.

[Gamma Emerald]

Hm. I've had an associative in mind between xyzzy and Mas for most of Day 2. I can share if 4 of 6 of you want, or one is lynched and flips scum.

[Comparing Realities]

Share. My vote counts as five.

[Comparing Realities]

But whatever you say, say it now, so we know you're not being calculated.

[Gamma Emerald]

Remember the argument Mas and xyz had over the math of the setup? I think it was planned out as a distancing tactic during Night 0.

[Comparing Realities]

...Perhaps. Who were the initial people screaming at Mas for that?

Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.

We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.

Thoughts?

~menos

Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.

We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.

Thoughts?

~menos

Scumclaim.

VOTE: mas y menos

I only claim scum as town though.
So that means I am town here.

~Menos

So what you think of delaying lynches to ensure a town win on day 3?
I doubt we will lynch 2 scum days 1 and 2. Statistically thats not likely.
Also would be harder to lynch a scum on day 3 if there are only 1 of them.

And if we just do mislynches then there are less town to figure it out.

I think we should do it!

~Menos

and go into day 3 with basically no info besides who died nights 1 and 2 and which players agreed to no lynch? that seems like a wildly bad idea

like how are you proposing that we'd scumhunt without actually lynching anyone? that seems difficult at best. that'd basically be giving scum free reign to set up day 3 however they like

I'm gonna check the math real quick but I'm pretty sure even just based on random choices that's a subpar choice for the town to make. also I'm guessing that callforjudgment already did that math and came to the conclusion that a ruleset allowing for a no lynch to happen explicitly does not make the game mathematically more breakable that way??? probably.

Guys, since we auto win if we lynch Mafia on Day 3
I suggest we just skip both Day 1 and Day 2.

We can still scumhunt until then, but I don't want to lynch anyone till day 3. Especially not strongest scumread till then.
Because we don't need to lynch both scum, just on the right day.

Thoughts?

~menos

I don't like this post.

Thinking on it, we should play normally. We hit scum Days 1 or 2, we have an extra day to get information. If we mislynch both days, we have an objective 40% chance to win.

I'm not sure whether I did this math completely correctly (the first set of numbers add up to 1.002, which might be a rounding error, or it might be that I missed something???? not sure) but the numbers mostly match the numbers the original thread for this setup had, which maybe I just should've checked there first,

but whatever

anyway here's stats for town odds if we lynch d1 and d2 vs no lynch d1 and d2. I didn't check the numbers for if we only lynch one of those days because I'm pretty sure the general rule that town odds are better with an even number of players still applies with how d3 works:

7/9*5/7*3/5 = .333 (no scum ever lynched, scum win)
7/9*2/7*4/5*2/3 = .119 (scum lynched d1 or d2, scum win) (2 ways this can happen)
7/9*5/7*2/5 = .222 (no scum lynched d1 or d2, scum lynched d3, town win)
7/9*2/7*3/5*2/3 = .089 (scum lynched d1 or d2, town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town win) (2 ways this can happen)
2/9*1/7 = .032 (scum lynched d1 and d2, town win)

43.1% chance of town win if we lynch day 1 and day 2

5/7*3/5 = .429 (town lynched d3 and d4, scum win)
5/7*2/5*2/3 = .190 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town lynched d5, scum win)
5/7*2/5*1/3 = .095 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4 and d5, town win)
2/7 = .286 (scum lynched d3, town win)

38.1% chance of town win if we no lynch day 1 and day 2

so it's objectively worse to no lynch

also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.

Weirdly enough, key is the first one who really takes on Mas, has a four-post argument with them, Mas-key-Mas-key, but then xyzzy shows up with thirty minutes worth of math (look at the timestamps.) Would scum be so committed to a mere distancing maneuver that they'd be so meticulous about it? Then again, Mas does get pretty freaking salty with xyzzy, whereas for the rest of the game, Mas has actually been rather pleasant, so that might have been an act.

[Alchemist21]

• 7 Vanilla Townies
  
• 2 Mafia Goons (with a compulsive factional nightkill)
  
• If scum is lynched on Day 3, town automatically win. Otherwise, factions win or lose as normal.

The factional nightkill is compulsive to stop scum no-killing on N2 to push town onto evens.

EV is calculated as follows:

• There's a 2/9*1/7 = 2/63 chance of lynching scum D1 and D2, town win.
  
• There's a 7/9*5/7 = 35/63 chance of lynching town D1 and D2. You have a 40% chance of triggering the instant win, and a 60% chance of mislynching and losing.
  
• The remaining 26/63, there's a 4:1 situation going into D3, which has a (1/5 + 4/5 * 1/3) = 7/15 chance of a town win.

Total EV is (30 + 210 + 182) / (63 × 15) = 422 / 945, or about 44.66%.

Strategy here is fairly interesting, given that town may want to lynch a less likely scum candidate D2 (or even D1) in order to save a likely scumflip for their "desperation day" on D3, at the cost of scum getting a nightkill which they can use to influence how easily that player gets lynched (or spout WIFOM everywhere). It also makes bussing more viable early and less viable late than is usual in a 9p; I'm not sure whether people consider that a good thing or not.

Thanks to xyzzy, whose setups got me thinking along these lines.

Based on the cited thread and the credit to xyzzy in the OP of that thread seen here, it's probably more likely than not that xyzzy had already started working out some numbers for the game already, maybe even before the game even started, and only brought it up because No Lynching was discussed (which was also quick to come up in the cited thread). So just bringing up the math for it is probably null, and I certainly wouldn't make associatives based on it.

[Gamma Emerald]

The thing that made me think of it was the fact that xyzzy and Mas went at it for the longest about that topic. It feels like a two-pronged maneuver: they can point to it as proof they are town if one is lynched, but can also back off from it with relative impunity, leaving each other be for the time after the topic drops. Of course, this is all pretty much speculation for now. But if one flips scum, we should at least consider it.

[Alchemist21]

It's known that Mas has seriously thought No Lynching was a pro-Town move and suggested it despite being scum in a past game.

It's also likely that Xyzzy had some math for the game already worked out and could quickly work out the extra bit to account for a D1 No Lynch if he hadn't already.

It's an argument that could have happened anyway, regardless of either one's alignments. I want to say it makes it less likely they're scum together because pretty much any scum player that hears their partner say they want to suggest a D1 No Lynch just for Towncred is going be pretty opposed to it (even with numbers to back it up a D1 No Lynch isn't a well-received idea on this site), but I can't really make that argument because Mas just does things without asking others about it first.

All this could only be telling of alignment if they tried to use such arguments in their defense if the other flipped scum, and even then it's still more null than not because Town could say it too.

[xyzzy]

• 7 Vanilla Townies
  
• 2 Mafia Goons (with a compulsive factional nightkill)
  
• If scum is lynched on Day 3, town automatically win. Otherwise, factions win or lose as normal.

The factional nightkill is compulsive to stop scum no-killing on N2 to push town onto evens.

EV is calculated as follows:

• There's a 2/9*1/7 = 2/63 chance of lynching scum D1 and D2, town win.
  
• There's a 7/9*5/7 = 35/63 chance of lynching town D1 and D2. You have a 40% chance of triggering the instant win, and a 60% chance of mislynching and losing.
  
• The remaining 26/63, there's a 4:1 situation going into D3, which has a (1/5 + 4/5 * 1/3) = 7/15 chance of a town win.

Total EV is (30 + 210 + 182) / (63 × 15) = 422 / 945, or about 44.66%.

Strategy here is fairly interesting, given that town may want to lynch a less likely scum candidate D2 (or even D1) in order to save a likely scumflip for their "desperation day" on D3, at the cost of scum getting a nightkill which they can use to influence how easily that player gets lynched (or spout WIFOM everywhere). It also makes bussing more viable early and less viable late than is usual in a 9p; I'm not sure whether people consider that a good thing or not.

Thanks to xyzzy, whose setups got me thinking along these lines.

Based on the cited thread and the credit to xyzzy in the OP of that thread seen here, it's probably more likely than not that xyzzy had already started working out some numbers for the game already, maybe even before the game even started, and only brought it up because No Lynching was discussed (which was also quick to come up in the cited thread). So just bringing up the math for it is probably null, and I certainly wouldn't make associatives based on it.

QFT. I went into the game already motivated to think about it in that light before the game even started; I would've been ready for that discussion regardless of any in-game factors.

I tend to focus a lot of energy when playing open setups to figuring out how to optimize town play in them; that's what i was doing yesterday, and it's what I've done today.