Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!
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Patrick Rantbuddy
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The reason for that might be that I nearly always am town. No joke.CES wrote:Thirdly, I've yet to have a correct read on MBL in any game and I always disagree with the majority of what he says and Patrick nearly always looks town.
I will try to get in some reread when I get the time, which should hopefully be soon because I'm on holiday now.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Taking a trip back to day 1.
As for the wagon on spectrumvoid, I thought I made my thoughts clear about it much earlier. Fritz attacked her early, for seemingly no reason whatsoever. Typical Fritz. Then you voted her based on the roll of a die. Mbl has just explained why he voted her, which I tend to believe actually. Pfft, then we have Adele and Zindaras hopping on though it's not clear why. Seems they were just being stupid, now we know they were both town. Then CES hops on, obviously no reason given. Then IH hopped on, again no reason, though I questioned him about it. He cobbled together some case later on after she had claimed vig, when I forced it out of him. Despite the fact IH was town, I think that case was likely just something he made up to appease me. So obvious conclusion is that it was a terrible wagon. I've played a load of games with spectrumvoid, and I know she can often look slightly scummy mainly because she's often being lazy and only half playing the game. But the wagon on her was obviously completely out of proportion with anything she'd done. By simple process of elimination, I can tell there was at least one scum on that wagon.Glork wrote:Patrick: What do you think of the D1 wagons against Spectrumvoid, the eventual lynch against AndrewS, and the people who discussed wanting to have IH vigged?
The AndrewS wagon was again, in my opinion, out of proportion. I disliked some of the people hopping on for, as Ether put it, "bullshit reasons" or no reason at all. IH was the player I disliked the most. I also disliked Thesp's obviously disproportionate attack on AndrewS, but I've played with him before, and it seemed mostly like typical Thesp, meaning he would take a small thing and blow it up into something huge, and push for one person for the rest of the day, repeating over and over, "Why is Andrew not lynched yet?" I remember not liking some of the WIFOM defences used by Andrew, but that was about it. I also felt that the way the wagon developed on him made it slightly more likely he was town and that there were scum on the wagon. There must have been 2-3 scum on the it. I would have hammered him to avoid a no lynch, but that's about it. I wasn't overely excited.
As for the vigging. Some people did seem to be just vig IH without really explaining why, but it didn't worry me as much since I thought IH was scum and was happy to see him vigged. I remember being a bit confused by Adele suggesting 3 possible vigging targets and not really liking her system. So yeah. A load of people seemed happy to vig IH. MBL gave one or two reasons, which were ok, though the main thing I didn't like about IH was he was very oppotunistic, and was attacking easy targets. He didn't seem to think about the Andrew thing very deeply at all, and never really gave any answers that satisfied me.
Out of the people alive, I preferred and still prefer MBL's stances towards all those things. I get the impression half the players didn't take day 1 seriously at all, which made it hard to tell idiots from scum. Glork and CES just bandwagoned. I didn't like Mgm's stance towards spectrumvoid, and attacked him on day 2 about it (apparently guessing she was a powerole but not defending her and teling her to claim etc.) He seemed alright with an IH vigging, though I'm not particularly clear on why, other than IH being "second on the list". Again, the impression I get from several people is that they were ok to play slightly flippantly on day 1, maybe because we had such a large numerical advantage over scum (my feeling is this setup in general is slightly good for the town - maybe I'm wrong). Thesp was insane on Andrew, but at least didn't vote for spectrumvoid. He didn't play a big part in the vigging process, it's true. You'd think he's have pushed more for Delibird. But then again he had that odd argument for not deciding vigging targets anyway. I personally disagreed with it, I doubt we were ever going to lynch spectrumvoid after the vig claim, and I was about 98.67% sure she was telling the truth. I didn't see scum choosing vig as a fakeclaim.
I haven't reread everything, because I forgot that being home again makes it harder to spend insane amounts of time at the computer without being yelled at. I think we likely have 2 scum in (CES, MgM, MBL) though it's not set in stone. If Glork turns out to be scum I will seriously cry and probably give up ever trying to read him in future. I don't know what Thesp doesn't like about my posts today, considering I'd hardly posted anything at that point. MgM's first post still feels slightly off because he seemed to come out of the gates with a vote and a ready made plan, which isn't at all how I felt. We had just learned the alignments of two more people. I know that Mgm seemed heavily suspicious of Ether, so it just seemed odd that he didn't say anything at all about that and just went back to what he was doing yesterday. Plus whenever someone comes out of the gates saying, "X was killed and this incriminates Y" it instinctively makes me think of a setup. The first thing that popped into my head when I read that was, "It's CES/MgM". I think CES/MgM is possible, though I did comment earlier that it seems like an incredibly bold scumpair, in that they've both been defending each other, and to some extent CDB, for most of the game for apparently no real reason. That's one concern with that scumpairing, it seems a little brazen at the moment. CES/MBL is possible, but I need to read up more on it. Obviously they've attacked each other somewhat. I don't get the MBL/Thesp thing sugested, as I do think MBL questioned Thesp pretty thoroughly earlier on. I don't know where Glork got that from, so I'm assuming he misremembered.
Currently if I had to have a stand alone top suspect, it's probably CES. I don't want to lynch either of the guys who can't be goons at this stage. Worse odds there.
Heh, post 1645 by Glork bothers me a bit because he just flat out states that Thesp is town. I'm not such a big advocate as MBL on freudian slip tells, but still.
I need to eat now. At some point I'll try to get a closer look at the interactions between MBL and each of the two dutch guys.Primpod 11:13 pm
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It was unexpected, given that other people seemed to have attracted less suspicion. I gave one possible reason in the previous post. I don't really get the possible reason MBL gave, since I don't think Ether/CTD had such a brilliant voting record. I'm always unsure how much to read into a nightkill. I'd rather go by what's in the thread. What about you?Thesp wrote:Looking over everyone's posts in isolation, I'm not really wild about Patrick's posts today. I am curious, though, why do you think CTD was killed? I'm fine with purely speculative thought.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Waves hi again btw. You know CES, if you are protown and you were only seriously considering a Thesp/Patrick pairing or a Thesp/MBL pairing, then your vote was reckless. You didn't even wait for Glork's opinion which you seemed to value so highly in helping you decide. Why the sudden lunge?Primpod 11:13 pm
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Hi.MBL wrote:Patrick
Some things worth pointing out.
This, I still think, was overblown by you.MBL wrote:Two townie wagons as deadline nears, sv's grew alarmingly rapidly. Patrick makes a surprisingly glib post about choosing between the two.
Explain what was sketchy or bizarre about this. I assumed I was wrong when Glork backed away from MgM, and I was asked why I'd apparently been favouring Mgm lynch over Adele lynch. So I explained why.MBL wrote:809 is a sketchy post to Glork:
Bizarre observation to make publicly, risky again if scum.Patrick wrote:I looked at your play, and thought (wrongly it seems) that you were a cop with a guilty on Mgm... I don't mind saying this now because it seems I was wrong in that assumption.
Nah. Your interpretation of these events was bizarre. You attacked me heavily over this for a while, then shortly after made a post where I remember you expressing suspicion of about half the players in the game, and I wasn't even one of them. I assume you must have been exagerating your attacks on me earlier, unless you had a very quick change of heart.MBL wrote:Starts out with a Zindy vote. Defends against the failure to hammer by pointing out others who didn't rather than defending his judgment, which is odd and very defensive.
I didn't really expect to be killed. There are better players then me here. I actually thought the most likely kill would be Glork, since I'm pretty sure he's town.MBL wrote:Morning note: Thesp, MBL, Glork find Patrick pro-town, why isn't Patrick dead overnight instead of CTD?
You realise Glork asked me a bunch of questions about day 1 stuff? That would be why I was talking mostly about day 1 stuff.MBL wrote:Patrick's relevant post today gives a lot of weight and time to D1 events. It doesn't appear to be stretching in an effort to reach conclusions.
Have to get off the computer, post rushed, I'll answer the thing about CES and MgM later.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Very wishy washy on CES days 1 and 2. I hardly remember thinking anything about him. His play struck me as the same as in Lights Out 2, and even pretty similar to an open c9 setup we played in together a while ago. He was town both times. Later on I was suspicious of Zindaras, and on day 4 wondered whether CES was being used as easy bait for easy reasons and wondered why Zindaras wasn't getting more attention. Was slightly unnerved when you voted him for having crappy suspicions whilst telling me that you've twice used him as a foil when you were scum for his crappy suspicions. He's never exactly struck me as protown, but never really came to the top. Similar to CDB in a way, until the claim and his behaviour post claim. I remember looking over Space Monkeys for some help in trying to read him, but he pretty much posted spam all through that game and I'm not sure if actions of scum/town in a backward game like that are necessaily a good metagame.MBL wrote:Patrick, please explain the evolution of your opinions of Mgm and CES over the past few days.
MgM I've been back and forth on most of the way. That is, back and forth between not liking any of his posts and thinking he's scummy, and not liking his posts and thinking it's just his strange playstyle that I'm not used to. Day 1 I didn't see a big case against him, day 2 was more suspicious. Then obviously became much less of a suspect due to the innocent investigation. I think he's been riding it somewhat since then, though that really could come from scum or town. Disliked his suspicions of Ether, they never seemed well grounded, disliked his suspicions of me for the same reason. And I see his tacky OMGUS on me at the start of day 4, when I think I had some legit observations. He hasn't really seemed like a suitable lynch since the innocent investigation, but that doesn't mean I can't point stuff out that is notable. Around day 3, might have been day 4, I was struck by the comments made by somebody about how he was being nonconformist, which isn't a scum trait. So yeah. If he's scum, he's been blatant about it, then planning on using the too blatant to be scum defence.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I don't even remember it completely accurately, but I don't think I was onto Fritz as cop. After he was killed I remembered something PJ said at the end of Kingmaker about Fritz being obvious as cop though.
I must admit I didn't pay too much attention to the earlier debate about MBL apparently looking for cops and being scummy for it. As for myself, I wasn't looking for cops on day 2, I was just reading the thread and suddenly it clicked in my brain that Glork was a cop with a guilty on Mgm because his actions made perfect sense for that.
I read back the bit where MgM freaked out and OMGUSed me at the start of day 4, for apparently trying to lynch an investigated innocent (which it's been established I wasn't actually trying to do), and he is lenient toward CES for his much stronger attempts to lynch an investigated innocent (Thesp). He intepretted my actions in the darkest way possible but generally just called CES "nonsensical".
I don't really think MBL and MgM are scum together. MBL pulled MgM into the spotlight quite alot early on, and Mgm has been at him for ages over this cop thing. They don't strike me as scumbuddyish.Primpod 11:13 pm
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MBL, re stance on Glork, I voted him early day 2 when it seemed like he was going to carry on in the same vein as day 1. From then on he started playing seriously and he made some decent observations, and yeah, at some point I decided he was likely to be protown. His work on CDB did not look like busing so that's a major plus point in my book. In general he just seems to be doing stuff he does as town, and seems pretty genuine to me. If he's phoney then he's doing a better job of it than other times I've seen him as scum.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Pointing out scummy actions by a player =/= to wanting that player lynched. As noted, I was voting for Zindaras.Mgm wrote: Then what were you trying to do? Post 1170 sure looked like you wanted me dead.
His day 2 posts are a better place to look if memory serves correct. He repeated the same message about Thesp many times, and kept trying to bring up alternatives. Similar to the way Adele seemed to keep trying to bring up alternatives to you, but in a stronger way.Mgm wrote: I went through the last few pages of posts Fritzler made before he died. He appeared very keen on getting CDB dead, but I found no post that would indicate he thought Thesp was innocent. Can someone point out the exact post that made them think Fritzler investigated Thesp?Primpod 11:13 pm
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Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch.CES wrote:f I had to choose between you and Glrok, I'd probably go with you, as Thespscum does not imply GlroktownPrimpod 11:13 pm
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Quite correct but I'm not sure how that was relevant to what I was discussing with CES.Mgm wrote: If you're scum together with MBL a lack of quicklynch would hardly be exonorating.
This is interesting and weird.Mgm wrote: Right back at you. FOS: Thesp
Have a good think about why that question is important and non-scummy.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I am not disagreeing with you for the sake of it. I think I have an idea what Thesp's complaint is. I also thought FoSing him right back seemed suprising. Feel free to go ahead and enlighten me, I'm listening.Primpod 11:13 pm
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... because a majority has always chosen to lynch someone else? I suppose several people, including me, have somewhat ignored him because he always plays useless. Many cop out of trying to read him.MBL wrote:Patrick, why hasn't CES been lynched sooner?
If Mgm turns out to be scum, I'm claiming some glory because I attacked him alot earlier The only people so far who have really "gotten results" would be Glork and Thesp. If one is scum, then we're down to one player who's gotten results.MBL wrote:* I can't say that Patrick's been laying low because he's asked a fair amount of solid, relevant questions--some at times were questions I had in my mind as well. But why exactly is he clearest in our minds? Tone, proportionality, curiosity, for starters. He hasn't gotten results though, not that any of us have. I'm not willing to let him skate on tone alone.
I can try and cause more offence in future if desired.MBL wrote:Patrick hasn't been on any of the remaining players since Adele claimed. When I reread Patrick I got the sense that I didn't disagree with him often, and when I did, he was very reasonable about it. I feel placated, no offense Patrick
It's true that I've approached CES and MgM in different ways. You can't approach every player in the same way. When trying to read Fritz for example, much of the read was based on very little, because there is so little to work with. Mgm has used a wide variety of bad logic in this game, and has stayed on certain people for far too long. Obvious way to expose his thought processes is to ask him questions, and disect the bad logic and force him to justify stuff. He's generally failed to do so. With Glork, it's easier to get a meta on him, and I looked for stuff he does as town but doesn't do so much as scum. I've also tried to judge his sincerity in debates where he apparently got worked up or angry, and looked to see whether the stream of consciousness seemed to progress in the way it might for town. With Andrew, I judged him at least partly on what others said and did around him, rather than getting into a large debate with him about the finer points of the defences he was using, which seemed flawed for the most part. Different people, different approach. But yes. I've not really paid much attention to CES compared to some players. Other players I paid relatively little attention to were CDB, Nightfall, fritz maybe others that I can't remember.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Having come up against advanced busing mentioned by Glork already in LO2, I have to disagree with this. I think this is a dangerous assumption to make.Mgm wrote:In case no one noticed, the scum can win by lynching anyone but their partner. Therefore it's extremely unlikely that someone who commits to voting for someone early on is paired with them.
I must be missing something here. Are you saying these are the only scumpairs you're seriously considering at this point? How did CES get off the list entirely?Mgm wrote:MBL/Glork
MBL/Patrick
MBL/ThespPrimpod 11:13 pm
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This is silly. Obviously if you are scum with CES then what you want is to lynch someone else and win, but if that is looking impossible, then I think you would at least want to be on the CES lynch. I don't think your change to CES is especially gradual, I think it's more of a sudden reaction when it looks like CES is going to be lynched today. I have compared it to your fairly rapid change on ChannelDelibird day 3 after you defended him quite alot.Mgm wrote: And what the heck would I gain from that. If I 'bus' CES half the town wants to lynch me next. I wouldn't survive that by a long shot. If I am scum, my best bet would not be to bus my scum buddy but to lynch someone else and win.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Interesting dancing there.
I went to bed around 2:50 am last night, if I'm working it out right, MBL placed that vote at 4:18 am my time. Anyone else who was around, was MgM around then? MgM is from holland, so it would be at a time when he would be in bed I'd have thought. Still a strange looking vote to place; looked like a quicklynchy type one.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I can't bring myself to get too worked up about it, though there is some inconsistency between the apparently still undecided MBL and MBL who placed a third vote without a comment. Still, if it an Mgm/MBL scumteam, I wouldn't expect a vote like that from MBL at that time. Completely unecessary. It couldn't be a well planned move between them, because the third vote sat there for over an hour. MBL, are you saying if you'd seen Mgm come online you'd have removed the vote?
I think this incident has semi ruled out Glork/Mgm as scum together, not that I thought it was likely before. I don't see why Glork would remove his vote if that pairing existed.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Here still. Assuming the game won't be ending in the next 24-48 hours, which I don't think it will, we will know that at least one of MBL/CES has to be scum.
Mgm, will you be linking us to the spreadsheet?
Still most suspicious of CES, and he hasn't done anything that makes me feel better about him. I think he's close to given up.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I'll let you read what parts you want to read and I wouldn't mind seeing Mgm's thing as well. Actually I would be pretty interested in seeing Mgm's thing.Glork wrote:Is there anything else you wanted to hear from the other players? Any specific questions, general thoughts/comments?
** Comment on laziness from before: I don't think Thesp has been playing any lazier than normal, nor am I playing lazier than normal. In fact I've put more into this game than my average game. The laziness that bothers me is mostly CES. If I had one/two votes on me, especially from varying people, and with others expressing suspicion of me, I'd be freaking out and trying my hardest to convince people that I shouldn't be lynched and that they should take me out of quicklynch range. Maybe that reflects just different playstyle between me and CES rather than a possible different alignment, but it feels like he's acting in the same that ChannelDelibird was acting when we had nailed him.**
MBL's analysis today is pretty good, and looks fairly protown, but I know he's thorough as scum and I wouldn't put it past him to do it as scum as well as town. I think if he is protown then voting CES like that was not the cleverest idea in the world, but equally if he is scum with Mgm then it would also have been a really sloppy attempt to snatch victory when just waiting a day or two would have been completely safe.
The pairing that worries me the most (after CES/Mgm which is currently my top one) is actually CES/MBL rather than Mgm/MBL. I think I mentioned before that there seems to be alot of genuine friction between MBL and Mgm. MBL pushed Mgm hard day 1 when he wasn't a top candidate, and let's remember if Mgm is scum he's the godfather. Would a goon set out to bus the GF early? I could see a GF busing heavily at a pinch because he can't be touched by cops but a goon busing the GF seems risky when you don't know what the poweroles are. And again later, there just seems to be alot of genuine angst between them. I'm still not too happy with Mgm's opening to today, because it looked pre planned, and not at all how I felt starting the day, and apparently not how Glork (who I think is protown) felt at the start of the day, which may indicate a different mindset. Pre planned busing or pre planned attempt to frame MBL with a slightly off nightkill? Or just unusual playstyle bleh. Glork, if you have some link you can see between Mgm and MBL, other than MBL's vote for CES, then you might as well tell us. For MBL/CES though, there is some distance between them but not as much, could be contrived. I'm not going to worry that much about it right now because in this case lynching CES is absolutely fine anyway. If CES were to be lynched as a godfather, MBL is very likely the other scum.
Taking it one step at a time, CES seems like the best lynch to me. How worried are you about that MBL/Thesp pairing you were talking about before? Because I've taken it mainly that CES has been blowing steam, but again, if there's some link between them then now is the time, we might not get another chance. Thesp has seemed pretty genuinely protown to me for a while now though.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Well. With Mgm and Glork not speedlynching we know at least one of MBL/CES is scum.
I would just add that although I agree they both kind of backdoored their ways onto it, I think Mgm did so as well, just he started a little late.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Feh. I don't think there's much going on anymore, so I'll put a third vote on CES in about 30 hours unless something big happens. Would have said 24 except I know I probably won't be able to reach a computer at that time. I'm fairly convinced he's scum who's just given up and most of my likely scumpairs include him.Primpod 11:13 pm
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The problem again with that is you seem to be assuming that scum will hardly ever bus each other in lylo which simply isn't true. Just because someone expresses an interest in lynching someone doesn't mean they can't be scum together. Also, MGM/Thesp is off the table as a pairing.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I was waiting for Mgm's analysis, obviously.MBL wrote: Glork and Patrick, what the heck are you guys waiting for?
I'll follow through on what I said I'd do though andVote: CES. Hopefully the game won't be over when I wake up.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Oh my. MBL or Glork. And we are lucky that CES was the godfather, if he'd been the goon, we'd probably have been going after Mgm today, who we now know is innocent. The computer at home has been taken away so I'm posting from the public library, so I don't have much time. Hopefully comp will be back this evening, but if not, this is the heads up.
Eh? That's not an attempt to look more innocent, that was basic correction of CES on a mistake of logic. You cannot be serious.Mgm wrote:He also states in post 1762: "Actually, Thespscum means that Glork has to be town, and I have to be town, due to the lack of quicklynch." That sounds like he didn't quicklynch on purpose to look more innocent (but it depends on the then available wagons)
I've seen Glork as town for most of the game. Certainly it's clear that he was a big tipping point against CDB, whereas MBL arrived later when CDB was in big trouble anyway. As soon as stable access returns I'll read over yesterday's events again.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I looked back over Fritzler's posts. It's interesting, their might just be something in this idea that he investigated Glork as innocent. Day 2 he's basically attacking anyone who goes near Thesp. Included FoSing Glork. Asks Thesp who the play is and makes a point of saying that he was not asking Glork. Day 3, he then asks Glork who he wants to lynch. Tangible difference.
Thinking about it, I think if he had a guilty on CDB he'd have voted him earlier or hinted in some way. If he had a guilty on someone else, he'd surely have claimed after CDB fakeclaimed, to net us two scumbags. I could easily see him investigating Glork, since on day 2 Glork had been going after 1) The guy Fritz had innocent 2) The guy Adele had innocent and 3) Adele herself. I think the only other person to really fit that bill was me, but I at least didn't hammer Thesp. I really wish Fritz had said a bit more now.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I'm not ready to go all out against MBL, as I'm not sure enough that he's scum and Glork's town. I'm just leaning in that direction. It would be nice to hear from MBL.Mgm wrote:What about the first question. If Glork is likely innocent, I need to pick between you and MBL today...Primpod 11:13 pm
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Not right at this moment. Probably will later. I'll answer specific queries of course. Of the ones you brought up in post 1924 I answered the second one, as to the first I can't deny nudging MBL onto the Zindaras wagon and away from the CES wagon, as I was more suspicious of Zindaras. I didn't find CES especially protown but most of the stuff said against him seemed like something anyone could say against him in any game (in previous games he played that same way and was town). Of all the people I actually thought Thesp made the best case against him.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I read those couple of pages of Moses in Egypt, then skimmed the rest of the game. It's a reasonable point to bring up I guess. I usually tend to have a better voting record on paper when I'm scum. I'm interested in MBL's replies especially about his stance on Thesp.
MBL, also, just to revisit a question Ether asked you:
This post was meant to be longer btw. I started looking at interactions of Glork and MBL with known scum, but I always start too late, and I know when I'm getting too tired/lazy to finish it properly. I'll get that up tomorrow.Ether wrote:
Why these people, who you didn't mention again and include Nightfall, specifically?MBL wrote:If he comes up scum and I'm dead, look into Nightfall, CES, Zindy and eventually MgM later in the game.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I've taken a look at what both known scumbags have said about Glork and MBL.
CDB of course didn't give us a whole load of stuff to work with. Day 1 I see nothing significant on both the living guys, though he did switch his random vote to CES. Or at least, it seemed random. Day 2 he's sort of cautiously attacking Glork over Glork's weirdness. Early posts kind of give me slight whiny scum vibe, like he's unwilling to allow the potential oppotunity on Glork to slip away, and wants to make it completely clear that Glork won't receive a free pass ( CDB's posts 11 and 12.) Sticks Glork on scum list but then goes after Thesp. Another tiny dig at Glork over his overcertainty. But really, after the first couple of posts, I can't get a good read on whether it's weak distancing or weak attacking an innocent. Unless I'm missing something, CDB never commented at all on scumminess or townishness for MBL. No opinion given.
I have to say MBL's posts towards CDB seem scumbuddyish. There's alot of critisism of CDB's play, "lameness, lack of curiosity, attempting to appear more active etc" but he's always going after other players instead. Looks like putting distance between them, leaving himself every opening to attack him later, maybe even nudges (or bad luck if MBL is town). Glork only really mentions passing suspicion of CDB until his steam of consciousness posts, where he seems to steadily progress to being certain CDB is scum. Unlikely CDB was getting lynched without that, I have to say.
CES's early play seemed to contain several weird FoSes of people. FoSed me for "misrepresenting Thesp" FoSed CDB and IH for "mischaracterising the wagon". FoSed then voted Glork on day 2 but it's not clear why. Random note as I look back through his posts: In his post 101 he states that Thesp has been attacking CDB and it doesn't look like distancing. Later pushes on Thesp for full days because he apparently thinks Thesp was distancing. I didn't even notice this first time round, but it's a clear contradiction.
Later on he decides Glork is protown, and some of his posts towards Glork look placating/sucking up. Glork suggests Fritz may have investigated him on night 3, CES is the only one to challenge that. On MBL, I don't really see CES expressing an opinion on him until pretty late on, when he states that he can't read him. He followed Glork onto an MBL vote though, stating one reason which seemed completely made up. Then unvotes him after Glork unvotes. Weird play. To be honest my reaction to seeing something like that from known scum is that he was following a townie onto another townie. Looking for innocent blood and deferring responsibility to another innocent. But I know that can't be the case. Overall CES interacts alot more with Glork than MBL, and moving into day 5 it still looks like he's trying to placate him and get him on his side.
MBL's early comments in his summary posts about CES are fairly noncommital. CES more active and chirpy than usual, and focussing on an Andrew lynch. This CES meta thing about being more active as scum has been brought up a few times by several people. Glork and Mgm, can you remind me if this is true? Both of you have more experience with CES than me.
Not too much on CES from MBL first 3 days, gets on him day 4, stated reason is a slipup which wasn't really a slipup. Keeps his vote on CES for a long time. Still slightly curious of his post 78 in that he keeps his vote on CES when Zindaras is apparently his clear top suspect at 40% likely to be scum compared to the 30% of CES. Then moves onto Zindaras a few posts later, then back onto CES with the Zindie modkill. Overall, some pressure on CES day 4, varying in strength though.
Glork is also attacking CES on and off throughout the game. Some small suspicions of CES day 2 but also a "reasonably protown" assessment. Any chance you could articulate how CES's play looked protown?
Jumps around on CES in his steam of consciousness posts, settles on CES as possible scum.
He's certainly poking at CES on day 4, demanding more content from him, though mostly without success. CES is now high on his LoS. Later eases off due to his meta on CES and goes after others. I think I'm starting to just summarise stuff now so I'll say just say that the interactions between Glork and CES seem fairly genuine. I suppose it's possible though that he was nudging/nutkicking him as I suggested MBL might have been to CDB.
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Just looking again at the massive Glork/MBL spat, I honestly would have said the most likely possibility for it was two townies arguing. Both sound very genuine to me but one isn't. The last scumbag is a tricky bastard.
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I'll probably look at yesterday after eating lunch. One of MBL and Glork would have known that this situation would likely crop up today, and may have been preparing for it in advance.Primpod 11:13 pm
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Absolute WIFOM reason for deciding MBL is probably town. I could just as easily ask why I would have killed CrashTextDummie if I was scum when he was completely convinced of me being protown.Mgm wrote:Actually, I can't stomach the idea that MBL would leave me alive after yesterday. He had no idea I would change my mind today and leaving such a vocal player alive that wants to lynch you is almost certainly suicide.
Note that I am the one who actually brought that point into the spotlight. And you apparently haven't even checked it yet to decide if he really was investigated or how likely it is. You don't fill me with confidence in your play Mgm.Mgm wrote:With Glork likely investigated (I still need to check), I'm tending towards Patrick as the last scum which makes those last lines all the more scummy...Primpod 11:13 pm
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Again, what scummy behaviour have I brought up or acknowledged? What are you referring to?Mgm wrote: I've seen people acknowledge their own scummy behavior and bring up points that could be used against themselves just to look more innocent.Primpod 11:13 pm
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As I remember it CES did push for an MBL lynch.Mgm wrote:Glork, let's suppose for a moment that MBL and CES were both scum.
Why didn't they push or even try to justify an MBL lynch in some way? Lynching CES the GF means I became confirmed innocent. They would've had more wiggle room and no confirmed innocents today, if they gave up MBL instead - a lot better position to be in.
The day 2 no lynch argument against me is something with which I'm thoroughly bored of arguing with you about. I have made it perfectly clear that I did not think Ether could be lynched because she had it in her power to hammer Thesp. Certainly if she was scum and Thesp town, she'd have hammered him. If anything, piling extra votes on Ether would likely have just encouraged a Thesp hammer, regardless of her alignment. I was more interested in deciding whether or not to hammer Thesp. With the hindsight that both Thesp and Ether were protown, I'd like you to explain how holding off voting either of them is meant to be scummy. (And in a post today, you said that both MBL and Patrick held off hammering an innocent Thesp, leaving Glork suspect).
No, I admitted to being indecisive. I apologised for not carrying out the token gesture of voting Ether, whom I felt couldn't realisticaly be lynched at that point anyway. I didn't at any point say that I'd acted scummy. And in the general sense, I'm not sure I even agree with the "scumtell" anyway. If I'm being attacked, I'll always try to counter it with logical arguments and explain what I was thinking, but if I think that someone has a valid attack on me (which I don't tend to think all that often I grant you but it does happen) I'll concede the point and move on rather than being a stubborn idiot. I don't think that would be a scumtell.Mgm wrote:
Here's one of those examples of you admitting something scummy, PatrickPatrick wrote:Hi MBL. Thanks for the exagerated surprise and outrage. It's entertaining. I admit to my vote on mgm being useless, since I didn't plan on lynching him. And despite the fact that Ether would never have been lynched, maybe I should have voted her. Couldn't be any worse than voting mgm I suppose.Primpod 11:13 pm
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And incidentally Mgm, if you strongly believe in that "scumtell", what did you think of Glork's post 464 first paragraph? He admits that his Andrew vote looks scummy. Should we run him up for it? Does it make him scum? No it just means he admitted it and moved on rather than trying to defend something that couldn't really be defended. I don't agree with this scumtell you're claiming.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I tend to agree with that. It seems like a reasonable move if they are scum together, and it always seemed likely one was getting lynched yesterday. In that case they'd rather it was MBL. Then nobody gets cleared and everyone is paranoid about whether he was trying to quicklynch. Makes CES look better, sets up MBL/Patrick and MBL/Mgm connections, and forces us to keep considering MBL/Thesp.Primpod 11:13 pm
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I think the whole thing about whether or not people realised Fritzler was a cop hasn't been as interesting to me as to some people. At one point we were asking everyone whether or not they had spotted it, but scum can easily lie and say they hadn't spotted Fritz as cop even if they had. CES claimed he wasn't onto Fritz, and he turned out to be scum. Only him and his scumbuddy knows who was onto Fritzler. I'm satisfied with most of Glork's responses over the past few pages, but I think I too need it clarifying when exactly you claim to have had that duh moment and realised Fritzler was a cop, because you seem to have two different times given.Primpod 11:13 pm
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You keep talking about, "MBL would have sacrificed himself yesterday if he was scum." What would you expect him to do exactly? "Hey guys I'm scum lynch me now plzkthxbai". And it's been pointed out that his quick vote for CES may have been at attempt to do exactly that, whilst putting distance between himself and CES.Mgm wrote:Even if he was happy to kill Thesp, I don't believe he would've been first to follow Thesp and wagon his own GF (creating two confirmed innocents in the process - only one of which he could kill). If he sacrificed himself suspicions against CES would've eased quite a bit considering pairing ideas and he would've left Thesp and Me both on the suspect lists meaning we would've had at least one more suspect in the mix today.
Your theory is complete and utter WIFOM. I haven't made anything out of the nightkill; I don't think it points strongly in one direction, and I'm unwilling to put so much weight on a nightkill as you seem to be.Mgm wrote:You can of course double-guess anything, but I'd rather refer to both our ideas as theories rather than discrediting one or the other as WIFOM (and I'll be looking that up, because it doesn't look like correct use of the term).
When people blow holes in your logic, it would be better if you addressed it rather than carrying on as if it works just fine. Being confirmed innocent does not give you the right to be lazy, or use sloppy logic, especially in this situation.Mgm wrote:Oh yeah. Vote: PatrickPrimpod 11:13 pm
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Please answer his questions when you have the time. We're at all or nothing here.Mgm wrote:*sigh*
Also, if it doesn't come into your answers to those, please address the point in the first paragraph of post 2004. You've said that if MBL/CES is the pairing, MBL would have preferred to sacrifice himself. So what's your take on MBL's quick third vote for CES?
As for recursive reasoning, it can be avoided. Adele also made the mistake ages ago in this game of applying WIFOM wrongly. ChannelDelibird also did it and got ripped to shreds by Thesp. Looking at nightkills is usually a risky way of finding scum. I guarantee you if you look at a bunch of games here, you will not see nightkill WIFOM being heavily used in looking for scum. In this specific case, as far as I can see, both Thesp and Mgm had MBL as their top suspect out of the three remaining. Both could conseivably have changed their minds. The difference is that Thesp is the better player, thus more likely to find the truth, especially with his form in this game. That seems to me the most obvious explanation for why he died.Primpod 11:13 pm
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No, you've made some points and they've been rebutted. They didn't just stand untouched.Mgm wrote:I did answer his questions. Each time I said something I outlined my train of thought along the way. There's no point in repeating what I said, it doesn't take too long to read what I posted earlier today.
Ok, I'll give you this, I haven't done a survey of your other games. But based on this game -- Thesp has been much better than you. He caught two scumbags. You stubbornly defended both dead scumbags. If your logic in this game is anything to judge your play strength on, then Thesp is a better player than you, sorry. Let's ask both other guys here who they think is the better player. When they both say Thesp, you can eliminate entirely that reason/excuse to keep your vote on me.Mgm wrote:The fact you consider Thesp a better player than me is another reason to keep that vote where it is. If you are in fact the one doing the night killing you want to keep the lesser threat (me) or remove the most dangerous of the two -- in your opinion Thesp.
I repeat, both you and Thesp had MBL as their top suspect. Both could conseivably have changed their minds. And I don't think I need to point out that Thesp can be an incredibly stubborn player as well.Mgm wrote:He couldn't possibly have known I would change my mind today. Whatever gave you the idea? I was acting like a rabid hound hellbent on killing him for 2 or 3 days straight. If you seriously think you can convince someone like that to change their opinion, I'd love to know how you would handle that.
If you are as experienced as you claim, then you must surely know that basing big decisions off nightkills is rarely used or encouraged because of how risky it is.Mgm wrote:Yes, recursive reasoning can be avoided, but going with your explanation of events isn't neccessarily the way to resolve that.Primpod 11:13 pm
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This is stupid. We're playing a game of mafia, and I'm not whining, I'm rebutting your points and asking questions. You are just neatly avoiding answering stuff, and that has to stop.Mgm wrote:Glork, MBL SAY SOMETHING! I'm tired of listening to Patrick's whining.
You said that MBL if scum would attempt to sacrifice himself.Mgm wrote:No, my reasoning is also based on the fact that MBL did nothing what I would've expected a scumbag to do yesterday, which by extension leaves Patrick as the only possibly scum.What do you think of his quick third vote on CES?Also, what did I do yesterday that you would expect from scum?Primpod 11:13 pm
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