Mini 530: Guitar Hero Mafia: It's Finally Over
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Code: Select all
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Unvote, Vote d3sisted.
I don't know how many of you are paying attention, but that makes 4 votes on ChaosOmega for something that wasn't particularly scummy. The transition from the random-vote stage and the actual-vote stage is not always clear, and I think DG and CO were both trying to end the random-stage.
Now we have a rapidly-growing wagon on ChaosOmega. Before d3sisted posted, we had three votes, an FoS, and an IGMEOY on ChaosOmega. How much more pressure do we need?
Not four votes worth, that's for sure.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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I've reread several times, and not too many things jump put at me. However, I do think that d3sisted explained why his statement was not a flip rather well, and I think hasdgfas is making a larger deal out of it than it needs to be.
Combining that with Post 97, and hasdgfas appears to be the best vote at this point in time.
Vote: hasdgfas-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Things I like:
* Thanatos's logic being consistant with itself.
Things I don't like:
* d3sisted apparently not reading fairly important posts.
* Natude being very noncommittal. The last post was a good start, but I'm very surprised it took him as long as it did to comment about d3sisted, and he kept sayiung he had nothing to discuss shortly after I had presented a possible case against hasdgfas that he could have agreed or disagreed with.
I'm going to think about this game hard tomorrow, and my vote will probably move to d3sisted or Natude. Hopefully there's some more discussion by the time I get back.
For what it's worth, I actually had a dream about this game last night, and Natude was totally scum. Of course, this dream took place within a slumber that was heavily sponsored by vodka, so take that as you will. Right, I'm done.
Peace.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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[quote="DeliciousGoldfish]I've been over that whole d3sisted/Chaos Omega thing a long time ago. It jsut got to be a bunch of BS. I vote Natude goes.[/quote]DeliciousGoldfish wrote:It seems d3 is going to get lynched, which is fine by me as his posts don't tend to be pro-town at all....
Your contradiction has been noted and filed away for later.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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[quote="DeliciousGoldfish]
Okay, but how looooong ago had I actually posted that initial quote?[/quote]
Actually, both quotes were from the same post, a couple of sentences apart. At the moment, I'm starting to postulate that you and d3s are scumbuddies and you're trying to save him from today's lynch by getting attention onto Natude.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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OKay, so DG takes us out of the random voting stage in 39/41. At this point ChaosOmega appears to react disproportionally, but it's not particularly scummy. It's impossible to tell how serious DG is about her suspicions of CO.
This leads to my 69, where I mistakenly thought that d3sisted had put CO at L-3. Thanatos compounds the mistake by describing the situation as L-2. d3sisted states that L-2 is okay in post 73. Now, in 73, d3s says that CO hadn't said jack since the pressure rose, yet CO had posted in 60, only five days and 7 posts prior to d3s' vote in 67.
Post 79 has me convinced that Thanatos is town.
In 89, DG proposes that CO and d3s are scumbuddies. There is no evidence for this. I do not understand why she would make such a claim, because at this point in the thread there has been no indication of that.
Post 94: "I am jester". Thanks for making things more confusing, d3s. Fuck you.
DG plays off the linking of d3s and CO as a "lighthearted statement". Now, DG spends much on 99 talking about how she has noticed several scummy things coming from d3sisted. At this point I checked the voting record, and with the exception of the first random vote, DG has not voted for d3sisted. Why would you not vote for somebody so scummy you think they might be jester?
In fact, going back to the jester thing, why bring that argument up in the first place? In my experience, proposing somebody to be the jester just makes it less likely that person gets lynched.
On page five, I present a case against hasdgfas. It doesn't get much attention, which is okay because it wasn't that great a case in the first place.
ChaosOmega nicely sums up why d3s is sketchy in post 128.
In 137, DG saysDG wrote:I will try to do a reread by this weekend sometime andtry to pick up on something new...
I suggest others do the same...
And let's move on... Keep things in mind, but stop repeating ourselves... We're gettin' nowhere...
Italics added for emphasis. Why does DG want us to move on from d3sisted?
d3sisted apparently isn't reading the thread, because he tries to act like he just discovered what we've been talking about for pages in 140 and 142.
In 192, DG states the d3sisted's posts "don't tend to look pro-town at all." Yet again, she refrains from voting. In fact, she votes for Natude instead. I pointed out the contradiction in the next post. At first that was a joke, but now I'm not so sure. It's not until 202 that I first get the idea that DG and d3s are scumbuddies.
In 246 SM replaces d3s. She builds up a case against DG. It's a good case; the sort of case that could avoid getting SM lynched today. However, I don't like the following two posts by SeraphicMirth:Well, does anyone have any other suspicions or questioning? So that we don't have to sit around on DG.
I can't help but interpret these as a desire to get the focus off of the person she just voted for. This doesn't make sense, except in the context of somebody attempting to un-bus a scumbuddy.I am wondering on the people who are content to sit on DG...there's more than one scum, so let's try moving onto others?
Conclusion: I am now more convinced that DG and SM are scumbuddies. I do not particularly care which one we lynch today.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Vote: SeraphicMirth
As I pointed out yesterday, what drew me to DeliciousGoldfish was how I felt she was distancing from somebody that I felt was scummy. d3sisted was an awful player that I feel was strongly tied to DG. SeraphicMirth tried to change that, but the trail left by DG is too damning to ignore.
Sorry, Stina. Like Gorrad said, d3s and DG pretty much fucked you over in my eyes.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Yes, it's a smart move. You replaced in at L-1. By pointing to a scumbuddy, if you get lynched, then DG looks like town by comparison. As for DG on the verge of replacement, that doesn't affect things. When a replacement comes into a game, I generally will give them a chance to play before lynching them. With DG, she had not been replaced yet. In fact, since I believed DG to be scum, it is in the town's interest to get her out of here as fast as possible so that the next available replacement can replace perfect or SilverPhoenix or Dark Ermac since those are the people we need to get reads on. I think if you were scum, you would NOT have advocated even more for waiting, because when it inevitably didn't happen, it would have been apparent that you were linking yourself to her.SeraphicMirth wrote:Right, because it's a smart move to come right on and lead a lynch straight to my scumbuddy?? I think not. Especially when they said she was about to be replaced. While I didn't think anyone would vote for a totally absent player and removed my vote to find other scum, when I saw they would actually vote an absent player who looked scummy, I gladly joined that vote. I think if I were scum, I would have wanted to advocate even more for waiting it out or something.
No gambit. Answer me this. Why did DeliciousGoldfish fail to vote for you outside of the random phase, despite her constantly saying that d3s was scummy? Why did she attempt to shift pressure from d3s, who had been playing horribly, to Natude, a then-lurker that we now know was town? When faced with active evidence of scumminess on Person A and a lack of participation by Player B, why the hell did she choose Player B?I think, Haschel, that you were trying to set up a gambit of either me or her. When the vote started rolling more towards her, you could use that to hide behind and put your vote on either one of us (it was clear by then that those were the two main suspicions of the day) when the time came. Then you can just use that same thing to vote me today.
I had already found two scum. More talking at that point could have led to people second-guessing themselves about DG, and that was a scenario I did not want. As for whether it was un-Haschel-as-town-like, I disagree. Long days are good for the town, sure, but there comes a point where you have to commit to a theory and use the info learned on the lynch as a basis for the next day. My goal as a townsperson is to lynch scum. I did that. I intend to do it again today.I also think it is fishy that you were against looking for more scum as the day drew towards an end. It's kind of un-Haschel-as-town-like. No one talked about directing people's night actions. All I was calling for was more analysis or looking around for other people who were suspicious.
Everybody else is free to make their own decisions. My vote stays on you. In fact, barring a cop revealing an investigation or a role claim by you that seems believeable, my vote is going to stay on you.I am going to re-vote youvote Haschelsame reason as yesterday, as I said then - nice set up.
I will be looking through the posts again to see who else I think is scum, but I definitely think you have shown yourself.
And don't accuse me of rolefishing with that last sentence. I'm not asking you to claim.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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I don't like Gorrad bringing up the jester again, but it's not scummy,per se. As for the "GJ" comment, if this were a live-action game I would use that as a starting point for grilling, but my experience with Internet Mafia tells me that congratulating the town isn't as big a scum tell online.
I think scum are more likely to make a "woe is us townies!" post than a "we did great yesterday" post.
My current vote stands.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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If any of you are a vig then shame on you, because DG was obviously trying to get Natude lynched, and SilverPhoenix had done nothing to merit getting vigged over SM.TheSweatpantsNinja wrote:Well, unless we have a vig firing into the crowd, there's probably an SK, but it seems improbably that there is more than 1/3 scum. I'd be less surprised if there were only two mafia than if there were four. Because that's a lot of scum.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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In addition to d3sisted playing horribly, I think that an analysis of DeliciousGoldfish's posts suggests that DG was trying to lessen pressure on d3sisted. Despite talking about how suspicious d3s was, DG never voted for d3s after the initial voting stage. In fact, she tried several times to focus the town's attention on other people, such as Natude.
I see cases made against Gorrad and hasdfas, and each case has strong points and weak points. However, no other person is this game has a BETTER reason to be lynched than d3sisted/SeraphicMirth.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Well, yes, the Guitar Hero I vs. the Guitar Hero II is what I was thinking. However, if you say that that's a neutral thing then I suppose I trust you.TheSweatpantsNinja wrote:Its in the hardest section of guitar hero, like psychobilly freakout? And the pro-town songs have not been?
Ah, no. Godzilla is from Guitar Hero I. Everything else revealed is from Guitar Hero II. I can confirm that's not a scumtell. But the song difficulty may be.
I will reread Gorrad, but I still think SM is the play for today.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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OKay I lied. I reread Gorrad right now. I should probably do it again tomorrow when I sober up, but but I figure I always do better in German class when I'm hung over, so maybe I can notice things in Mafia better when I'm drunk.\
The first quote that stuck out to me was [quote[On that note, clearly the Natude or d3sisted wagons can't both stay, I don't think it'd be possible for the day to end. Any Natude-haters want to switch? He's looking pretty bloody protown to me, I don't really see a case. [/quote] Now, we know that Natude was protwon, and I suspect SM to be scum as you can tell from my previous posts. My initial thought is that scum-Gorrad could have tried to shift the d3s-wagon onto Natude, but he didn't. I'm aware that this does not clear him, but I think it could potentioally be important later.
Now, Gorrad says that he likes the list that Natiude presented in post 19x.. In this list, Natude suggested that DG was protown, which we now know is false, and that SilverPhoenix was anti-town, which we also know is false. It's possible that Goorrad said he likes this list because of isinformation in it. However, I have no proof of this. I'll reevaluate it later.
I just had a thouhgt. If it turns out that SMi s town after all, which I don't thing will happen, could Gorrad be accused of going for the quicklynch? Actually I usppose in that case I would look morde suspicious than gorrad so I suppose this isn't a valid line of thought.
All this jester talk is confusing. In my experience, lynching the jester ends the game for everybody else, because then all parties have lost. Gorrad suggest lynching the jester, then says that d3s might be a jester, then says we d9n;t have a jester, and then says that in the event we do have a jester, then d3s is not it. I agree with this last statement because if d3s was the jester then SM would have hammered herself. I don't know why h efelt it necessary to bring it up at the beginning of the day, though, it seems to me like we had moved on a long time ago.
As I think I stated before, I don't consider the GJ thingy to be that suspicious. Now if he had said "Oh no we lost two townie's then I would find that suspicious.
My conclusion right now is that while Gorrad hasn't been the cleanest individual out there, I don't think that he is scum. this conclusion comes with the caveat that I am drunk, and therefore may change my mind tomorrow.
In conclusion, vote SM,b ecause she is scum.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Hmm. I need to reread now because my entire view of the game has turned out to be incorrect. Unfortunately, I won't be able to do that until at least Wednesday or Thursday.
No theories instantly spring to mind; I honestly did not believe that I needed a Plan B.
I'm not sure why we didn't go to night, but we basically can get a free lynch now, so I don't think we should vote No_Lynch.
Right. Thesis now, Mafia later.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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I haven't forgotten the game. This week is Dead Week at my university, which means I basically get to pull three all-nighters in a row. The only sleep I've gotten in the last two days has been the occasional 40-minute nap on a couch in the student union because I physically was unable to keep working. I understand day is still going on, but I am in no physical or mental condition to reread right now. Wednesday night or Thursday I should be better.Atticus wrote:I'm going to be hella annoyed at Hasdgfas and Haschel Cedricson.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Something strikes me as wrong about Gorrad's claim. This post is mostly thinking out loud.
Premise: The second death last night was caused by an SK, and not a vigilante.
Reasoning: Based on how scummy d3s was yesterday, combined with what appeared to be solid connections between d3s and DG, a vigilante would have targeted SM last night. Natude would not have been a vig kill, as the confirmed Mafia DG made a concerted attempt to drive a wagon on him. I see nothing by Silver Phoenix that would cause vig attention.
Premise: There are at least two members of the Mafia left.
Reasoning: If there were only two members of the Mafia, crosskills with the SK could potentially fuck up the game balance. I like to believe that Atticus would run a reasonably balanced game.
Premise: There are at least three vanilla townies, and most likely more.
Reasoning: We've seen three die already. Unless all three happened to be the first three town deaths, which is possible albeit unlikely, there are probably some more out there.
Out of twelve people in the game, there are four people who motivating would provide a detrimental effect to the town. There are at least three more that motivating provides no effect. One cannot motivate oneself. Hasgfas has claimed a Day Ability, which cannot be motivated. This leaves a total of three people that motivating provides a town benefit to, and this assumes that all of the vanilla townies are dead, which I do not believe they are.
Motivators belong in power-heavy games, and I can't see a motivator being a likely role in this game.
There may be a flaw in my reasoning, but I don't see it.
Let's look at the people who did mislynch SM yesterday: Gorrad, Myself, Thanatos, hasdgfas, ChaosOmega
The scum obviously knew that this was a mislynch. However, it was a mislynch with a strong case behind it. Therefore, it makes just as much sense for scum to jump on the wagon as for scum to not jump on the wagon. I suppose we get nothing from this.
I just reread my drunken post about Gorrad. The main thing I had that made me feel he was town, i.e. him trying to get d3s lynched instead of Natude, only made me feel good because I was sure that SM was scum. Now that we know the opposite is true, this becomes a null tell. Most of the other evidence mentioned in that post is very circumstantial.
Nevertheless, I can't shake that feeling that he's not telling the truth with his claim.Vote: Gorrad.
Thoughts on Thanatos and TheSweatpantsNinja tonight.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
- Mr. Know It All
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- Joined: May 14, 2007
- Location: Cascadian Subduction Zone
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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Sorry 'bout the delay. I was browsing the forums and rereading the thread when my roommate said "Hey, there's Rock Band at Jex's house. Wanna come?" I did, and when I came back... well, let's just say I don't want to submit you all to any more drunk posts.
Okay, there are eight people left alive. However, Dark Ermac and perfect628 have needed replacement for quite some time. Therefore, there are effectively six active players. I am pro-town*, so that lowers it even further to five people to be closely scrutinized. It is possible that Dark Ermac or perfect628 are Mafia. However, neither of these two can be the SK, because both needed replacement well before night started. Therefore, the SK is amongst the active five. Likewise, Dark Ermac and perfect628 cannot BOTH be the remaining Mafia, as if that were the case, no Mafia kill would have been submitted.
So, out of ChaosOmega, Gorrad, hasgfas, Thanatos, and TheSweatpantsNinja we have at least two scum.
hasgfas is clear in my mind, as no other explanation for how the day was extended has been offered.
Let's take a look at Jex/TSPN. Jex really only had three posts of substance before being replaced, but they appear to be pro-town. She gives a logical case against DG, and then when DG explains later on, Jex asks one more question of clarification before unvoting in a later post. I enjoy logic that is consistent with itself, and Jex throws up no major flags.**
Now, TSPN jump-starts the game by putting d3s at L-1. Later, when SM replaces in, he unvotes to give her a chance to defend herself, but apparently he was comfortable enough with his vote to forget that he unvoted, as a few posts later he says"I think my vote will stay on SM for now, because of d3sisted's play. Particularly I don't like his seeming inattention to detail and vote switching, like he's trying to find any bandwagon that will stick." From this, one can infer that he agrees with the case on SM at some level.
DG is lynched and found to be scum. In his first post of the day, TSPN now no longer finds SM scummy:
So, d3s goes from being scummy enough to put at L-1 to still-scummy-enough-to-think-he's-voting-for-the-replacement to "[not] allwhile d3sisted's play was lazy and inattentive, it wasn't allthatscummy...thatscummy." It's possible he changed his mind overnight. It's also possible that he knows SM is innocent. I can't tell which of these is true.
Other things I notice about TSPN: I understand the second part of his initial vote on Gorrad (the jester stuff) but not the first (order on the DGwagon). Also, his post 488 appears to defend me against Gorrad at the same time he is voting for me, which is a bit of a contradiction. Post 443 strikes me as disingenuous; I'm not sure if he himself believes what he says.
There are enough inconsistencies in TSPN's play to bother me, but he makes (mostly) good points about Gorrad, which combined with my distrust of his claim means that I'm not shifting my vote yet.
This took longer than I thought, so I'll come back later tonight for ChaosOmega and Thanatos.
*Obviously you only have my word that I'm pro-town, but in order for you to understand my logic, you have to understand my postulates.
**Out of all the people I've ever played Mafia with, IRL and on forums, Jex is the hardest person for me to read.-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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My night has become booked by, of all things, my Basketball Coaching class, so no long post tonight.
I would like to ask, though, Gorrad has said several times that I am scum, with no reason other than "both TSN and HC are looking scummy to me" and "Tommorow, kill Haschel. He's scum." Do you have anything that can actually be defended, or is your case just OMGUS?-
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Haschel Cedricson Mr. Know It All
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