Mini 530: Guitar Hero Mafia: It's Finally Over

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I find has' claim believable. Its certainly plausible, and there's no other more reasonable explanation why we have another day.

[Gorrad]

I figure a claim's in order. I seem to be pingin' pretty hard.

I am

Star Power

. I have two wonderful abilities:

1) I can protect someone, as star power brings someone out of the red

2) I can double someone's abilities, as star power doubles one's score

On N1, I protected Hasdgfas.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

One-shot, both those abilities?

I am

highly

skeptical of an unlimited doc and motivator in one role.

[Gorrad]

No, you misunderstand. They're unlimited, but I can only choose one per night. I'm a doc OR motivator. Sorry, didn't make that clear.

[Thanatos]

Gorrad...I might believe your claim, but the fact is...what the hell would you claim such a strong power role, especially considering you might be the only doc, when you've had no calls to claim and your still only pinging. VERY premature. And suspicious considering you just breadcrumbed it a second a go. A lot of possibilities, but no proof.

[Atticus]

I'm going to be hella annoyed at Hasdgfas and Haschel Cedricson.

[Gorrad]

Gorrad...I might believe your claim, but the fact is...what the hell would you claim such a strong power role, especially considering you might be the only doc, when you've had no calls to claim and your still only pinging. VERY premature. And suspicious considering you just breadcrumbed it a second a go. A lot of possibilities, but no proof.

I'm doing it when I'm not under much pressure so people won't think I'm claiming falsely as a last-ditch escape measure.

[ChaosOmega]

unvote

Why would you claim without being under pressure of a lynch? Espeically considering the role pretty much guarantees that you'll die tonight. I don't like that at all.

vote TheSweatpantsNinja

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Espeically considering the role pretty much guarantees that you'll die tonight.

I suppose that's true. If he's not dead tomorrow, then we should probably lynch him then. So,

Unvote, Vote haschel cedricson.

Its unlike you to not be trying to lead the town. Laying low after your mislynch?

And why me, CO?

[hasdgfas]

Espeically considering the role pretty much guarantees that you'll die tonight.

I suppose that's true. If he's not dead tomorrow, then we should probably lynch him then.

X

That leads to so much WIFOM it isn't even funny.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Well, yeah, I guess it does. But I hate gorrad's play. Hate it hate it hate it. And yet, obviously, if he's not lying, that's not really a role we want lynched.

[hasdgfas]

I know that he's been playing badly, that's what makes this so troubling. However, he does have a testable claim. He says he can motivate someone and have them do double their normal night actions. That is testable. (It is also a possible explanation for why there were two kills on night 1, although unlikely, due to him claiming protection of me.)

[Haschel Cedricson]

I'm going to be hella annoyed at Hasdgfas and Haschel Cedricson.

I haven't forgotten the game. This week is Dead Week at my university, which means I basically get to pull three all-nighters in a row. The only sleep I've gotten in the last two days has been the occasional 40-minute nap on a couch in the student union because I physically was unable to keep working. I understand day is still going on, but I am in no physical or mental condition to reread right now. Wednesday night or Thursday I should be better.

[Gorrad]

Copied from V/LA:

Brawl. OMGWTFBBQAWESOME!

Distracted until Sunday. Expect daily reads but not much more.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

He says he can motivate someone and have them do double their normal night actions. That is testable.

Well, its only testable if someone claims a night action, or do I misunderstand you?

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

oops, gorrad didn't write that. hasdfgas did. I was thinking about gorrad when I wrote it.

[Thanatos]

Honestly, I don't think he's lying. For one thing, even if he is scum, he's running a major risk by saying this when we had two kills last night, and even if he is scum, he runs the risk of attracting attention from whoever did the other kill. And frankly, that's a hella complicated role for an on the fly roleclaim. I could see him getting the star power fake claim, but that's a rough role. Of course, Maybe Gorrad is just a clever player, and he could have come up with it for WIFOM reasons.

In short, I can't say for sure, but I'm leaning towards believing him. That said,

Vote:SweatpantsNinja

For his rather bad WIFOM regarding Gorrad, setting the doc up potentially for a D3 lynch, which I think is worth a second vote. I'm not attached to it, though.

[hasdgfas]

unvote: FoS: TSPN

Due to exactly what Thanatos said. I don't think it's worth a third vote right now, but I will re-read him and come back with my thoughts on his play all game.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Hmm. I don't really think it was as bad as you are making it out to be. Considering that there were two kills last night, the odds of gorrad surviving, even if he's lying, are pretty tiny, I'd say. I was more emphasizing the "he's a dead man" aspect than the "we'll lynch him tomorrow if he isn't" aspect. Although were he to survive, I'd certainly consider him high on my suspect list. Its not like that's the only reason to vote for him.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Something strikes me as wrong about Gorrad's claim. This post is mostly thinking out loud.

Premise: The second death last night was caused by an SK, and not a vigilante.

Reasoning: Based on how scummy d3s was yesterday, combined with what appeared to be solid connections between d3s and DG, a vigilante would have targeted SM last night. Natude would not have been a vig kill, as the confirmed Mafia DG made a concerted attempt to drive a wagon on him. I see nothing by Silver Phoenix that would cause vig attention.

Premise: There are at least two members of the Mafia left.

Reasoning: If there were only two members of the Mafia, crosskills with the SK could potentially fuck up the game balance. I like to believe that Atticus would run a reasonably balanced game.

Premise: There are at least three vanilla townies, and most likely more.

Reasoning: We've seen three die already. Unless all three happened to be the first three town deaths, which is possible albeit unlikely, there are probably some more out there.

Out of twelve people in the game, there are four people who motivating would provide a detrimental effect to the town. There are at least three more that motivating provides no effect. One cannot motivate oneself. Hasgfas has claimed a Day Ability, which cannot be motivated. This leaves a total of three people that motivating provides a town benefit to, and this assumes that all of the vanilla townies are dead, which I do not believe they are.

Motivators belong in power-heavy games, and I can't see a motivator being a likely role in this game.

There may be a flaw in my reasoning, but I don't see it.

Let's look at the people who did mislynch SM yesterday: Gorrad, Myself, Thanatos, hasdgfas, ChaosOmega

The scum obviously knew that this was a mislynch. However, it was a mislynch with a strong case behind it. Therefore, it makes just as much sense for scum to jump on the wagon as for scum to not jump on the wagon. I suppose we get nothing from this.

I just reread my drunken post about Gorrad. The main thing I had that made me feel he was town, i.e. him trying to get d3s lynched instead of Natude, only made me feel good because I was sure that SM was scum. Now that we know the opposite is true, this becomes a null tell. Most of the other evidence mentioned in that post is very circumstantial.

Nevertheless, I can't shake that feeling that he's not telling the truth with his claim.

Vote: Gorrad

.

Thoughts on Thanatos and TheSweatpantsNinja tonight.

[Gorrad]

Tommorow, kill Haschel. He's scum.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Isn't that a bit dramatic? You're still at L-3.

[Gorrad]

Yeah, but if I'm not lynched, I'll be NKd.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

WIFOM, WIFOM, always WIFOM, but the momentum was swinging toward me, and while he (HC) could've slipped onto my wagon, he didn't. Of course, he still hasn't posted his thoughts on me.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Also, I will be gone this weekend. I don't really think this game is busy enough for that to really be a problem, but just in case.