Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Nocmen]

Confirming.

And damnit, these names and correct spelling rule is going to annoy me with my ballots.

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Adele
    andersonw
    Ectomancer
    Max
    opie
    Sarcastro
    Shy Guy
    springlullaby
    Thesp
    VanDamien
    Yosarian2

Why? I just wanted to see if i could format it right.

And Nocmen wins the prize for the first incorrectly formatted ballot. Can I remind everyone of the importance of correctly formatted ballots and of Rule [07] -- Stoofer

[Nocmen]

EBWOP: Damn tab.

[Nocmen]

Max, what game did you win with me? I have a bad memory this past week.

Also...Go #2 on making a correct ballot:

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Adele
andersonw
Ectomancer
Max
opie
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
springlullaby
Thesp
VanDamien
Yosarian2

I think i won't mess up this time.

[Nocmen]

Also, max, why do you think andersonw is clearly scum?

[Nocmen]

Also, max, why do you think andersonw is clearly scum?

I'm sorry, but are you seriously asking Max to explain why he said someone was "clearly scum" in the

first post of the game

?

Yes, I am asking questions a lot this game because I can. Why would you doubt this claim?

[Nocmen]

Sarcasto: I was asking why you wouldn't doubt my claim towards how it may be suspicious of Max calling andersonw scum.

Though yet again, why are you so quick to jump on a defense towards Max? And why would you want to see the order people would be lynched so soon? I like surprises.

Opie: I take everything seriously. This game is serious buisness. Do you think this game is a joke?

Ecto: Why do you think that me asking Max a simple question would link people together so much?

[Nocmen]

Hi guys. I am not new at mafia. I am usually very quiet, even with many things going on or even if I am being found suspicious. This might be the longest post you see from me, and I am being aberrant because I think I have some good ideas about the game that we can work with.

1) I know that typically in mafia, looking for mafia is the best way, because once one is dead you can trace back interactions with other players. But in this game, we never find out if we were right until too late, and the mafia can't kill off people we get right as being town. Also, we don't care if mafia are lynched 5,6,7 as opposed to 1,2,3, as long as they all get lynched. So, maybe starting by looking for who are most likely to be town, and putting them at the bottom of the list, is better.

2) Also, this way this works, I think that maybe we want to eventually agree on a "town list" and have everyone use that, putting people at the top who won't. If we all just have random lists, at first glance, it seems like it would be easier for the scum to manipulate the process.

What do you guys think?

And I am new here, does anyone want to be friends ?

Well, first of all, I hope this is not the longest post we see from you, unless that means you will be posting quite frequently, and won't have much to respond to all at once.

However, how does your playstyle of being quiet go with how it won't help your cause if you are not being pressured? Then again, it won't matter to much in this game, becasue you won't be lynched right away until the game is already over.

For your points:
1. I agree with what you say as true, it doesn't matter as long as the Mafia is all lynched before we are. However, if one scum is thought to be generally town, and most people put them near the bottom of their lists, if they are even the bottom, they will win. Also, the later the mafia are lynched, the more chance they have of being able to have their votes stack and could have them in a larger order than the votes from the town.

2. I am fine with going along with a town list, however as I said right above this, there could be the chance that a scum gets near the bottom of the lists, he could easily outlive and win for the mafia.

opie: What do you think about how serious I take this game?

[Nocmen]

Thank you for your response. I understand though is that many players can see other players playstyles after being with them for a bit.

However, if I just went and called someone clearly scum, I would probably be criticized for it. Max did this, and it was somewhat justified in the fact that it was the first post in the random stage of the game. I did not like all of this random crap, so I wanted to see what Max gives as his reason for putting him on the top of the list, regardless of how stupid it really is.

I feel that every answer to my questions allows me to make the best judgements, especially on how their answers reflect on their posting in the game, and how that may or may not change later on.

[Nocmen]

I was simply making a random vote I moved a few players, but from the first post of the game what else am I meant to do? I was also trying out spelling all the names right. first post of the game always starts with a random vote. To be honest I think that it's probably going to waste town an early lynch at the beginning, and if you want my opinion it's fairly scummy to ask questions against people in the first page of the game when the PIQ is the very first one.

So you are questioning my strategy of asking all the questions I would have during the course of the game straight away?

[Nocmen]

Personally, I'm questioning your strategy of blatant distancing.

Good for you. I don't see it as distancing.

Also, VD's idea: It may be possible, It would take some serious number crunching, but theres just something I don't trust regarding how it could all work out in the end that could make us certainly predict what would occur.

[Nocmen]

Ok...so, some general points on stratagy:

1. Shy Guy' origional point is correct; if we can figure out correctly that X, Y, and Z are pro-town, and we all put them at the bottom of our lists, then we win. Of course, the correllary to that is that if we do that and it turns out that Y or Z is scum, we lose.

2. As scum's voting lists are (I assume) more likely to hurt us then to help us, if we can catch a scum and all rank him high and he gets voted off early, then at least his votes won't hurt the town in future pre-decided days, right?

3. I'm really interested in VD's idea...Not really sure how that could work. All the obveous stratagies I see (like 1 and 2) seem to involve most of us ranking most people in a similar way...even just figuring out what happens if we all rank people differently seems tricky, and I can't imagine how we could arrange it so that the town is guarenteed to win. Could you explain in a little more detail how that might work, VD? Even a half-completed thought or somethign that might help me figure out where you're coming from might help.

1. I pretty much said the same thing earlier, but its good to have someone else that noticed this large flaw with me. Do you think anything of the players that want to go along with this "rank as town/scum" plan still, if it means that it would be a loss to the town if scum got on the bottom of our lists?

2. This is correct, I think a good way to catch scum would be to look at how their ballots compare to others.

3. I think there is a possible way with the numbers, but the theory I have would still come down to requiring one other person who is near confirmed town. And I need to test this theory more. If anyone else has ideas of how this could be pulled off, please by all means let us know.

[Nocmen]

I really would like to avoid the scenario I mentioned in point 1 though. I think that deductions can be deceitful, and I don't want to use them as the sole method of deciding whether we win or the scum win.

And on point 3, that is what I was trying to say exactly. While it sort of goes against my stance on 1, the best thing to do would be to almost-confirm two people, and make sure they are the final two alive regardless of the scenario. If that is possible, I'm not fully sure about the numbers, there are so many outcomes with the votes that I can't assume for every situation.

[Nocmen]

We could try to do this, but I want to hear more from everyone first, and I think a good amount can be drawn from voting styles, even though there really aren't any ballots submitted yet, and neither of which has been posted to be taken seriously.

I tentatively suspect that Ectomancer is town because of his apparently sincere attempt to discern the allignments of others and frustration with Sarc when he interefered.

Yosarian2, why did you feel the need to respond to my question directed at opie?

Why would you criticize anyone else when you asked such a broad question? Asking anyone how they would find scum will get more then one response, is there a problem with someone other than opie answering that question? that continues with this question I answer, which was directed towards Yos.

[Nocmen]

EBWOP: The first part of my post, before the quote, was supposed to be a response to opie's #60. Quote tags fell off.

[Nocmen]

Don't have time for a real post, but Max:

My ballot was made in alphabetical order, excluding myself. That is all.

[Nocmen]

I haven't posted much because the vote system is really throwing me off. Although I can't think of a system that could be more advantageous to the town, Max's seems as good as any. I'll do a reread and post my list shortly.

Could you at least have gone and posted something? Anything is better than nothing...95% of the time at least. Also, are you just going along with a system in order to say you agree with someone?

Ecto, what would happen if we all pledged to someone, and then sort of all just didn't all of a sudden? What if just one person went against everything? The main problem with your idea is it requires way too much coordination, if we can't get people together for a plan needing 2 or 3 people, how can we get 12 working?

Max: As I said before, did you realize that my ballot solely was in alphabetical order, before Adele left? Yea, because I totally did that because I'm an lyncher towards Adele. Also, are you even reading this game? I said I just wanted to get any information we could from your random voting. I also answered Ecto's questions that you quoted if you noticed. Why do you think ShyGuy is insane?

Opie: Is there any chance you could , before you leave, or soon after your return, to go and say a true opinion? I have noticed that as Yos said, your posts are pretty short and don't really show an opinion.

ShyGuy: If you noticed, my list is in alphabetical order. Sadly, Y is near the end of the alphabet, so Yos is last on the list in alphabetical order. Why do you want an adequate answer, when it has been stated before?

[Nocmen]

I'm not happy with the whole Yos going at the bottom of everyones list.

I wanna take a look at him again, because if he is scum we're in trouble.

That is exactly how I feel.

Also, ecto, are you lazy?

[Nocmen]

Yes, the interactions between yours, Ectomancer's, Nocmen's, and Max's lists make me nervous, especially since two of those lists were posted very early in the game.

Also, is there a reason both you and Ectomancer left Oman off of your lists?

Yes, but if you notice, my list was alphabetical, which as I said before which is why he is at the bottom.

Don't worry though, I expect to make a new list in the next days.

[Nocmen]

Here's my two cents:

We have split between people that want to go with the town and do everything all together, and the people that want to do their own thing and submit a unique ballot.

Also, Skruffs, lynching the most town player early is quite ridiculous, as if they are the towniest player in the game, i would want them near the bottom towards the final 3-4.

I agree with what Yosarian said regarding watch for major vote shifts in the final few days, especially if they are random, or major shifts with no seeming cause but to cause chaos. Once the scum realize that some of them are in order to be lynched first, they will do everything they can to prevent that, and it may be some desparate measures that will hurt them more.

Alas, my new ballot:

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Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[Nocmen]

EBWOP, because of a damn line break in my ballot above:

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Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[Nocmen]

Uh...I just hope that you meant to do the exact opposite of what Max employed, as Max is going about with most points as scum, and the fewest points are at the bottom of his ballot.

Also...someone is scum just because you disagree with them? And you trust the others because you agree with them? That strikes me as pretty awkward, and there have been plenty of times and things you can agree with scum on and disagree with other townies.

Finally, you have anything to say about the middle of your ballots? Personally...I feel this middle ground will have the most influence on deciding who wins, as the first few players will be pretty much preselected by the ballots, and there will probably be at least one person who is in almost everyone's bottom 2-3.

[Nocmen]

ShyGuy, you are at the top of my ballot for two reasons:
1. From your posts I can tell you have some experience playing Mafia. However, you seem to be using some form of time restraint/newbieness towards your advantage.
2. You seem to be pressuring saying everything needs to be done your way. This is a 12 person set up, meaning that there needs to be at least 2 townies also in order for a 3-way tie to screw up. Nice use of fearmongering though.
3. You say that you are very concerned by everyone expressing town reads of Yos, while at the same time you yourself keep him second last on your ballot.

[Nocmen]

He's not lynched yet.

'Twas a joke.

You sure about that?

[Nocmen]

*Hugs Stoofer*...and thats a very interesting summary, there, Skruffs, of the game and how it will get played out.

Now I pose a question to those who are at the final three, because I am not sure whether I am comfortable or not with my current ballot. Opie, ShyGuy, and Yos: Why should I think you are town?

[Nocmen]

Ecto, how do we know that you aren't saying that just because you know those near the bottom are scum?

[Nocmen]

Sarcastro...why should I not put you near the top for what seems to me as you going to set things up so you will have crap logic for making a ballot benficial to you and your scum buddys?

[Nocmen]

Sarcastro...why should I not put you near the top for what seems to me as you going to set things up so you will have crap logic for making a ballot benficial to you and your scum buddys?

I have no idea what you're attempting to say. What did I do that you think is scummy?

I see the way your post 219 is just you setting up any way to get the people on the top of your ballot without increasing as much suspicion.

[Nocmen]

Opie, ShyGuy, and Yos: Why should I think you are town?

opie and yos, I am waiting on responses from this before submitting my new ballot.

[Nocmen]

Here is my ballot before:
Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

Now, my opinions on who I want to move on the list:

opie- He has showed the most town atttude recently, and I really think he shouldn't be near the top anymore.

Ecto - I don't know where to start. Hes pretty much gone from the person I see as the towniest to one of the scummiest over not much time. His ideas were pretty good before, but it seems that hes gone on a strong offensive after realizing that his scum team isn't going to win anymore.

Sarcastro - While his argument against Ecto is pretty strong IMO, thats the only major town thing I've seen from him. He will be able to move down a little, but not by much.

Yosarian - I don't know really, part of me sees him as a townie, yet at the same time I see him as a really good playing scum. Keeping him right in the middle.

Shy Guy - Seems to have brought some decent arguments to the table, but his responses to others actions are really hard IMO for a scum to say.

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Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs
Shy Guy
opie[/quote]

Thesp, VanDamien, and andersonw are all upped because they have been lurking a bit too much, and haven't brought anything to the table.

[Nocmen]

I'm retarted:

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Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs
Shy Guy
opie

[Nocmen]

Now, thesp - how can you see VanDamien as town when he has not said much at all in this game and the way it is played? Same thing for Oman, hwo can you put him second to bottom when he hasn't said much new?

Ecto - The problem with random ballots is that they are too easy to manipulate - you are trying to go and play the odds here, and there is no way that I believe both Sarcastro and Yos are town. If you look at my ballot, its not hard to tell that Sarcastro is the third person on my list, behind you for what I have claimed, and Oman because it seems like he is avoiding this, and that he is only following others.

[Nocmen]

Right now my biggest concern is that theres so many people actively lurking, posting not much, and just hoping they can go under the radar. The fact that so many people are doing this, however, makes me certain that they all can't be scum, so I don't know where to place them.

[Nocmen]

Sarcastro, I put you near the top due to the fact that while you are searching for scum, you are getting too focused in a few key debates against people (Note: ecto), becoming very aggressive, and just attacking him even more after it's been made certain that he is scum, seems as distancing in order to slide into the final few.

And I don't feel that what I am doing is at all active lurking, I'm already very sure that Ecto is scum, and I'm trying to get discussion towards the other problems that I found when making my ballot regarding who is scum, and this could make or break the game for the town, especially because we don't know when the deadline is. It could be tomorrow.

[Nocmen]

To me, Ecto seems that he has taken a ballot from someone that seems like a townie, but has their ballot all wrong, and would serve as an advantage to the scum. Over that, he is then trying to take the other ballots and get people to change them to his plan, which seems to me that any plan that does not have people just making their own ballots as they want to, a way of using the ballots to their own advantage. Ecto has become so strung up in his goals, I'm not even sure if he knows what he wants to do. He says that he doesn't want anyone manipulating the ballots, but I feel copying ballots and using that to solidfy an outcome is manipulation.

[Nocmen]

I would feel much more content with opie in the end than Skruffs.

[Nocmen]

I became pretty confident in that opie is town with some of his recent attitudes and remarks. Skruffs is sort of the one person that I'm not happy of his posistion in my ballot, but hes there because thats where I would like everyone else.

[Nocmen]

Ecto's idea actually somewhat works. However, is it possible that he is doing this as a last minute desparate attempt?

I don't really feel safe putting Skruffs in the bottom 2 right now, especially over opie.

Also Skruffs, I noticed the same thing about andersonw. Not enough real discussion from him, sort of seems like hes just changing his ballot, trying to help him as he sees fit.

[Nocmen]

Hrmmm, he moved Shy Guy up. Still didn't affect anything? Ok, so that makes whoever is currently in the 3rd slot suspicious.
Im also thinking you are a bit suspicious yourself for bringing up 11th hour ballot changes when we haven't agreed to lock down (though I suggested it when it would actually have been useful)

I don't think locking down is an inherently good plan, but I did, in fact, state that I am not planning to move my ballot from now on except in response to other people changing their ballots.

That is the exact same way I feel. Really, I'm quite satisfied with the way this game is right now, and I am pretty certain it will be a town win if it were to end right now.

Im paranoid. I tend to believe the other direction. That if scum isn't already in the bottom 2, they are in the bottom 3.

So wait...you feel that scum very well may be in the third spot right now, and you are suggesting that everyone switches 1 and 2 with 3 and 4?

[Nocmen]

Sarcastro - You will put Shy Guy higher up just because he annoys you? But I do see what you are getting at right here.

Shy Guy - Why have you waited until now to go on the initiative and start attacking people?

Ecto - If you really beleive that Skruffs should be in the bottom instead of Shy Guy, why are you not doing anything about it? Why are you keeping your votes where they are?

Right now I am most happy with opie in my bottom, and below that I would like to have Skruffs within the bottom 3, but I'm not sure anymore. Whether I keep Shy Guy where I have him right now...well, I really would like to hear him answer first.

[Nocmen]

So yea...once again, I failed at being scum in the methodical game, just like last time. But by about halfway through, I knew I was pretty much considered to be scum, and my goal was to just insure that skruffs would get in the final 2. I wasn't going to change my vote right away though, as putting him lower may give up his posistion there, so it was a steady gradual change, and I never got the opportunity to do so.

[Nocmen]

Yea, I was trying as hard as I could to get out of the hole that I dug myself for being so aggressive in the beginning, and it did fool some people I think. It was a gambit I took though, going and questioning many many actions, and everyone for that. But it was definitely one of my better games played.

[Nocmen]

Yea we could...I was going to soon to talk to Sarcastro in private...but didn't.

[Nocmen]

Its ironic though, just looking at both of these Methodical Games held. In the first, I was scum that really wanted to be able to talk to my partners in private more than after the start, and in this one, I was able to talk to them anytime, but didn't.

[Nocmen]

Well...it was stated in our PMs...or mine at least.