Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Ectomancer]

Ecto - I don't know where to start. Hes pretty much gone from the person I see as the towniest to one of the scummiest over not much time. His ideas were pretty good before, but it seems that hes gone on a strong offensive after realizing that his scum team isn't going to win anymore.

Ludicrous statement. There has never been a time in this game where you could possibly suggest that a scum team has no chance of winning. Which gambit of Ectoscum do you suppose failed so catastrophically as to cause me to "give up"? Are you kidding me? Go read some Ectomancer games. I'm not stupid. An easygoing, rational, game mechanic posting (it's an active lurker move) Ectoscum could slide into a 3rd - 5th position

easily

in this game. From that position I can win this game as scum. No doubt in my mind.

Unless

my ability to manipulate the ballot is compromised by town blocs (if they are lucky enough to build a solid one), or random moves that screw up my balloting by removing this player in round 3 instead of round 4, or that player drops into the 2nd slot ahead of my guy, and changing my ballot doesn't help because, effectively, two votes for town on my guy got removed, because someone

else

got bumped one round earlier and his townie vote didn't count.
Focusing on one player as scum isn't going to help you at all. It doesn't matter whether you attack, or defend them. They will end up towards the middle of the pack as town attempts to hedge their bets. Whether high, or low, will depend upon their play, but they are unlikely to be in the top 3 or bottom 3.
That means I cant push a scum buddy into the bottom 3, nor can I push a townie into the top 3. The significance of either one is that the bottom 3 will determine the win, but the top 3 have almost no influence over that process.

The only claim that you might make to support the idea that I am scum, is if you said I am purposely choosing 2 townies (Sarcastro and Yosarian2) and forcing them into the middle of the pack by my play.
It doesn't take them out of play, but it should remove 2 townies from the possible players that will end up in the bottom 3.
That way, instead of town having a 9 in 12 shot of getting into one of those positions, they now have a 7 in 10 shot of getting into one. (Drop from 75% to 70%)


Yosarian was randomly chosen, not be me, but by an alphabetical list, and the fact the the first couple players posted it that way.
Sarcastro was chosen for his gameplay, and a way to hedge my bet on Yosarian2. Pick a townie to keep in, and pick a scumbag to keep out.

If I'm wrong about Sarcastro, he will still end up in the middle positions and retain a strong influence over the ballot.
It is unfortunate that Yosarian2 will probably also end up there, and not in the bottom 3. I've been happy with his reaction and his gameplay thus far, though I feel like he is walking on ice chips with his choice of words sometimes.

If you could prove to me that both Sarcastro and Yosarian2 are town, then I might be inclined to say I'm fucking this up keeping 2 townies out of the bottom 3. I dont think so. Sarcastro has triggered dozens of scumtells for me, scumtells that Im not interested in arguing. They are my personal toolchest, built over the last year playing this game. Perhaps it is his personal playstyle that has set off so many alarms, I concede that I haven't encountered him before. Still, read back up again, and see that he is destined for the middle anyhow. I cant put him in the top 3 with this playstyle, but I can keep him from winning, and that dear sirs, is the name of this game.

[andersonw]

Ectomancer: Why is Sarcastro fourth from last on your list, even after changing it after you made all of your posts saying he was scum?

I also don't understand what this part of your post means: "Still, read back up again, and see that he is destined for the middle anyhow. I cant put him in the top 3 with this playstyle, but I can keep him from winning, and that dear sirs, is the name of this game. "

Can't put him in the top 3 with this playstyle? Could you explain it better?


[offtopic] I've asked this question in one of my posts already, but it was ignored, so I'll ask it again. What do the "townsperson", "goon", "mafia scum" etc. mean?[/offtopic]

[Ectomancer]

Ectomancer: Why is Sarcastro fourth from last on your list, even after changing it after you made all of your posts saying he was scum?

I also don't understand what this part of your post means: "Still, read back up again, and see that he is destined for the middle anyhow. I cant put him in the top 3 with this playstyle, but I can keep him from winning, and that dear sirs, is the name of this game. "

Can't put him in the top 3 with this playstyle? Could you explain it better?


[offtopic] I've asked this question in one of my posts already, but it was ignored, so I'll ask it again. What do the "townsperson", "goon", "mafia scum" etc. mean?[/offtopic]

Im copying Yosarian's ballot as stated earlier. I've not wavered from that decision. It is part of my personal effort to create a town voting bloc. He was chosen (by my assertion, others dont believe me) at random simply because the original ballot was in alphabetical order. If I want to move someone else higher on my personal ballot, I have to convince Yosarian2 that they belong there.

[Shy Guy]

Skruffs, I am not sure what you are misunderstanding. Yosarian2 put it very well: if you are town, why don't you want to make it to the final 2 -- if you are town and make it to the final two with just one other townie, then the town wins.

I find you the most townlike of all the players right now -- and enough voters are evaluating me as very townlike right now such that it seems highly likely that I will make it to the final two. So I am trying to figure out which other player I find most town (you), and try to get them to make it to the final two with me.

You say you find opie townlike -- it seems not unlikely that he would be in the final two, also. And if you are correct in that he is town, and he and I make it, then town would win. But you *think* he is town -- you *know* you are town (if you are town).

I really don't understand why you dislike my attempt to get us to be the final two -- it seems like a more beneficial outcome for your faction, whatever your faction is, if you are in the final two players.

Your baffling reaction is making me wonder about my evaluation of you... but not very much. I still find you very, very townlike. Add that to springlullaby's exit which I found extremely townlike, and if you and I both were the final two players I think it is highly likely town would win the game.

Ectomancer, I really find you coming off badly in these talks with Sarcastro. I can't say I find you more town-like than Sarcastro any longer, and Nocmen's analysis of the players in the game seemed reasonable and genuine as well -- I very much agree with him about Thesp and VanDamian, and while I enjoy placing Yosarian2 lower, I am sympathetic with Nocmen's position on him as well. And I agree with his assessment of opie, and he has been more than reasonable with his treatment of me. It seemed he had genuine suspicion and then that suspicion was reduced.

So, slight change: Ectomancer moves up two slots. This may be the last change I make. Unless Skruffs puts me to the bottom -- then I will very likely put him to the bottom as well in attempts to make it so that we are the final two.

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

Mr Stoofer, if you could put the lists up again, I'd appreciate it. I might have a try at running a simulation.

[Max]

Ectomancer - I think he could be town, but his ideas are overall very off to me. Pledging is an easy way to hide... overall bad vibe here, recently.

so you find him scummy but only 5th form bottom

Sarc: what kind of person, sorry fool believes that you agreee totally with the ballot before yours?

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw
opie
Thesp
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

Thesp is up by a few because of lack of content
Shy Guy up because I can see a sarc/shy pairing.
opiehan't given much so up.
Same thing really for most people

[Thesp]

I'm sorry I haven't been giving this game the attention it deserves, especially since it could be over in 2 days. Let's get cracking.

I'm having a crisis of faith on Max. I think there's a strong possibility he's scum. At the same time, he's got me listed so low, the longer he's around, the longer my vote matters more, and so there's some self-preservation aspect there.

Hrmph.

Max moves me up later since I haven't posted in forever, so this is moot.

Ecto and Max aren't scum together.

I'm having lingering fears about Sarcastro.

Random is in our favor. Unmanipulated is in our favor. Only one group is informed in this game, and it is the minority one.

This is wrong. I am certain that given 9 random ballots, scum could use their 3 in a subtle fashion to win. We aren't uninformed any longer, we're just

less

informed. We know a bit about each other player, and have reasonable guesses on everyone because of it. If we all are halfway decent better at finding than the scum are at hiding, we have a decent shot at winning. Random doesn't help, it is inimical to the process of finding, and means the mafia are the only coordinated ones. (It looks like Yosarian2 hits on this as well.)

In point of fact, I would be equally happy to list our entire town in alphabetical order and then generate a random number list for the order in which to place them. You can scrap the entire current list if you like, I dont care.

I would prefer you pledge your vote to someone at random, rather than pseudo-random. (Of course, I'd rather you not pledge your vote at all

and that you actually played the game

, but that's just me. (It's not fair to say you're not playing the game, because you are scumhunting, I just have serious meta-concerns about your voting strategy.))

It's also worth noting that VanDamien is currently (and strangly) quite low on Thesp's list, no reasons given.

This is quite wrong, I've been asked twice for my reasons and given them.

Thesp: You said you're now a bit more wary of Skruffs, but you still have him second-from-bottom on your list. Could you be a little more specific? I'm also wondering why you have VanDamien so low on your list.

The first time I read his first large post, it felt pro-town, for whatever reason. Looking back, I'm not sure why I felt that way, especially since it's what scum might want from the town. (Perhaps that's why I thought it was mroe likely to come from a townie, ironically.) As for VanDamien,

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

He feels to me like he's very genuine in his attempts to break the game. Scum feign this appearance when it suits them, but I think he really wanted to "solve" the game.

I'm happy I didn't get lynched, I am trying to think really carefully about the bottom of my list -- I know I am town, and if you guys keep not lynching me, then if I just pick the right other player to keep to the last, then the town wins!

This quote irks me, as does the general tenor of the rest of his post. I'm also a bit torn on my latent distrust of alts - I know it shouldn't factor into my decisions (as he was an alt before the game started), and I don't

think

it does, but I can't say for certain. In any case, I don't like the buddy-buddyness between Yos2 and Shy Guy. At all.

If I were to guess right now based on interactions and votes, I'd say the scum are Yosarian2, Shy Guy and Max. (Shy Guy's addition is a bit of a recent thing, but my voting analysis concerns me.) I fear I'm very wrong on this, though, and you'll notice my ballot isn't beholden to this theory.

Sarcastro, can you address other people for a little bit? I'd like to see you away from the tunnel-vision of Ectomancer. Seriously - ignore him for a little while, I want to see what you think of other players.

I'm intrigued by Skruff's thoughts on opie, but I don't agree with opie being likely town. He seems to praise attempts to break the game, while simultaneously heap skepticism upon them.

Yosarian was randomly chosen, not be me, but by an alphabetical list, and the fact the the first couple players posted it that way.

You keep saying his choice was random, when in fact it was not. Ranom would be using dice tags, or some other publically verifiable manner which is outside of your control. What's to say you wouldn't have decided to pledge to the person at the top of the list if his name was aaaaaYosarian2?

I really want to see VanDamien as one of the last 2, as I think he's least likely to be scum, far and away.

Code: Select all

Max 
Nocmen 
Yosarian2 
andersonw 
Sarcastro 
Shy Guy
Ectomancer 
opie 
Skruffs 
Oman 
VanDamien

[Nocmen]

Now, thesp - how can you see VanDamien as town when he has not said much at all in this game and the way it is played? Same thing for Oman, hwo can you put him second to bottom when he hasn't said much new?

Ecto - The problem with random ballots is that they are too easy to manipulate - you are trying to go and play the odds here, and there is no way that I believe both Sarcastro and Yos are town. If you look at my ballot, its not hard to tell that Sarcastro is the third person on my list, behind you for what I have claimed, and Oman because it seems like he is avoiding this, and that he is only following others.

[Ectomancer]

Ecto - The problem with random ballots is that they are too easy to manipulate - you are trying to go and play the odds here, and there is no way that I believe both Sarcastro and Yos are town. If you look at my ballot, its not hard to tell that Sarcastro is the third person on my list, behind you for what I have claimed, and Oman because it seems like he is avoiding this, and that he is only following others.

If you truly believe that, then I am successful in my endeavor, because by both of them gravitating towards the middle of the list, due to my play, I've kept one scum out of the crucial bottom 3. Since I comprise only 1/9 of town, but have found 1/3 of the scum, I've done MORE than my fair share of scum hunting here, and the rest of you are lax-jawed slackers.

[Ectomancer]

@Thesp - We all play the game our own way. You've played enough with me to know I try all types of styles (I think you have at least). I learn something from every one of them. It keeps the game interesting for me.

So, given an alphabetical list, order 1 at A and ascending as we go down the list:

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (2) = 2

[Ectomancer]

And Yosarian2 it is.

[Thesp]

Now, thesp - how can you see VanDamien as town when he has not said much at all in this game and the way it is played? Same thing for Oman, hwo can you put him second to bottom when he hasn't said much new?

Do all town players say lots? They both seem way more likely to be town than lots of players in this game.

@Thesp - We all play the game our own way. You've played enough with me to know I try all types of styles (I think you have at least). I learn something from every one of them. It keeps the game interesting for me.

So, given an alphabetical list, order 1 at A and ascending as we go down the list:

Original Roll String: 1d12 (STATIC)

1 12-Sided Dice: (12) = 12

This is way, way too funny. =P

[Ectomancer]

My code stays the same, since it was already set to Yosarian2.

Is that random enough for you Thesp? Or are you adamantly opposed to the fact that it turned up Yosarian2 again? If so, I'll chop my name and Yosarian2's name off the list, and do a dice 1d10 with the remaining names. (Had my name come up, I would have created my own ballot FYI)
My problem with chopping our names off, is that the odds are no longer in town favor. I would prefer to leave the ballot at Yosarian2, but if asked to do it, (by Thesp, not one of you other jerks), then I'll do another random dice and that result will be final.

[Thesp]

My code stays the same, since it was already set to Yosarian2.

Is that random enough for you Thesp? Or are you adamantly opposed to the fact that it turned up Yosarian2 again? If so, I'll chop my name and Yosarian2's name off the list, and do a dice 1d10 with the remaining names. (Had my name come up, I would have created my own ballot FYI)
My problem with chopping our names off, is that the odds are no longer in town favor. I would prefer to leave the ballot at Yosarian2, but if asked to do it, (by Thesp, not one of you other jerks), then I'll do another random dice and that result will be final.

While I have problems with the pledging you're doing, I no longer believe Yosarian2 to be potentially non-random.

[Yosarian2]

Lol. I wish I understood what Ecto is doing here, but I still can't seriously see him as scum.

I also note that earlier in the game, I mostly agreed with Max's list; most of the people near the bottom of his list seemed pro-town to me, most of the people near the top of the list seemed scummy to me. Now, two days before deadline, he's almost completly flipped his list, putting the people I think are likely pro-town at or near the top and putting the people I think are likely scum lower and lower. Makes me wonder if he started out the game trying to buddy up with prot-town people, and we're now starting to see what he really wants to see happen. I think he's going to move up my list soon.

[Yosarian2]

As for VanDamien,

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

Wait...what? It was shy guy who proposed that we try to find pro-town players, not Van Damien. Van Damien's only stratagy contrabution was to wonder if there was any way to break the game, and then later to decide that there was not.

[Shy Guy]

Thesp, I guess you were clear, but I don't understand your motivation for believing what you do. I see what you are saying, but I am completely unconvinced. It is as if you said "I think the sun is a ripe banana, because it is yellow and has spots." That is exceedingly clear -- but I still see the position as unjustified. I'd like more explanation for why you think VanDamien's proposal of an "auto-win" system leads you to believe that it is an authentic one.

Thesp, could you respond to this?

I also echo Yosarian2's preceding post on this subject, I came up with that, not VanDamien...

Also, Thesp, why are you bothered by the "buddy-buddy" going on between me and Yosarian2, but not that between me and opie? I've been of the mindset that if all possible I don't want to put Yosarian2 at the very bottom of my list since pretty early on, because of Sarcastro's et. al.'s reasoning.

opie and I on the other hand have had each other both at the bottom for quite a while.

And I am trying very hard to "buddy buddy" with Skruffs, explicitly so.

I'd argue I'm trying to "align myself" with those two players to a much greater extent than with Yosarian2 -- so why did you point out the interaction between me and Yosarian2, and not that between me and the other players?

Ectomancer's rolling the die messes with my mind. I'd found him fairly suspicious because I thought he didn't pick at random, even though I initially got a pro-town read on him. Now that he has officially and actually picked at random, I'm perplexed. I'll probably think on it and try to vote again before March 3.

[Sarcastro]

Ectomancer's rolling the die messes with my mind. I'd found him fairly suspicious because I thought he didn't pick at random, even though I initially got a pro-town read on him. Now that he has officially and actually picked at random, I'm perplexed. I'll probably think on it and try to vote again before March 3.

I don't think it really changes much. His non-random choosing of Yos isn't the only thing he's doing that I don't like (the fact that he's even doing this "pledging" thing at all, for one). Besides, this doesn't prove that his "pledge" of Yos was always random - it seems just as likely to me that he felt like he was under pressure, decided to take a risk, and got really lucky (I wonder what he would have done had it landed on me).

Anyway, I've already made it clear that I think all this stuff regarding randomness and probability is bad play. Ectomancer should be scum-hunting (no, Ecto, declaring that I'm scum without any explanation is not scum-hunting), not just hoping to get lucky and win.

Okay, now that that's out of the way, I suppose I can try out Thesp's suggestion to ignore Ectomancer, though I can't make any promises.

Sarc: what kind of person, sorry fool believes that you agreee totally with the ballot before yours?

Max, are you missing something here? I never agreed with Shy Guy's ballot. I posted it because I realised it was almost the deadline, so I did the first thing I could think of that would allow me to post a valid ballot on time - I quoted Shy Guy's and quickly replaced my name with his. I made it very clear from the very start that that was

all

I was doing, and that I had absolutely no intention to leave it like that for any large amount of time. I have since changed it and, as you can see, I disagree with Shy Guy on many counts.

What exactly is the problem here?

[Ectomancer]

[quote="SarcastroI don't think it really changes much. His non-random choosing of Yos isn't the only thing he's doing that I don't like (the fact that he's even doing this "pledging" thing at all, for one). Besides, this doesn't prove that his "pledge" of Yos was always random - it seems just as likely to me that he felt like he was under pressure, decided to take a risk, and got really lucky (I wonder what he would have done had it landed on me).
[/quote]

Yes, I knew that you would doubt even a 1 in 12 chance. I suppose that I arranged that random roll somehow?

What does pressure matter to me? It doesn't matter where Im lynched or whether I'm town or scum. I'll influence this game regardless, and you wont know why I'm doing it, or what Im after to be able to counter it. Isn't that fun?

Had you turned up on the roll, I would have done as I stated and copied your ballot. Then I would have requested that town lynch you #1 and me #2 to completely negate your ballot except for 2 votes day 1 and 1 vote day 2. Why? That's how I'm playing.

[Ectomancer]

@Max - Sarcastro made it perfectly clear what he was doing. Not sure why you are going after him for that.

My

point is that we should force him to leave his ballot as it was. He's scum. I like his ballot

perfectly

as it is, exactly

because

he didnt make it.

[andersonw]

My code stays the same, since it was already set to Yosarian2.

Is that random enough for you Thesp? Or are you adamantly opposed to the fact that it turned up Yosarian2 again? If so, I'll chop my name and Yosarian2's name off the list, and do a dice 1d10 with the remaining names. (Had my name come up, I would have created my own ballot FYI)
My problem with chopping our names off, is that the odds are no longer in town favor. I would prefer to leave the ballot at Yosarian2, but if asked to do it, (by Thesp, not one of you other jerks), then I'll do another random dice and that result will be final.

Ectomancer, I still don't see why random is good. Random can be manipulated by the scum, as stated many times before. Also, as sarcastro said, you doing this is like making a 10 dollar bet with 75 percent chance of making 11 dollars and 25 percent chance of losing everything.
Also, if you chop yosarian and your names off, the probability that town would win would still be the same because the probability of you or yosarian being mafia stays the same if it is random.

[Yosarian2]

Had you turned up on the roll, I would have done as I stated and copied your ballot. Then I would have requested that town lynch you #1 and me #2 to completely negate your ballot except for 2 votes day 1 and 1 vote day 2. Why? That's how I'm playing.

...why?

I thought you made clear that you were copying my ballot partly because you trusted me. You would have really copied the ballot of a person you thought was scum? How could that have possibly helped the town?

[Ectomancer]

Ectomancer, I still don't see why random is good. Random can be manipulated by the scum, as stated many times before. Also, as sarcastro said, you doing this is like making a 10 dollar bet with 75 percent chance of making 11 dollars and 25 percent chance of losing everything.
Also, if you chop yosarian and your names off, the probability that town would win would still be the same because the probability of you or yosarian being mafia stays the same if it is random.

Random is the antithesis of manipulation. Did you read that before you wrote it?

re: Sarcatro - continue following inaccurate analogies and you'll be chasing yourself all over the place. This game is 100% win or 100% lose.
Now, in the interest of you being more specific, exactly which gambit of mine do you suppose is a bad hedge bet? I'll show where the analogy falls apart for you.

Re: Chopping names - You aren't very astute. Im town. Removing me does

not

retain the same probability of choosing town. I dont care if you don't know that I'm town. It is my math and my play here, not yours. I would have re-rolled at Thesp's behest, but I'm certainly not chopping any names, and definitely not 2 of my top 3 townies.
That's a bad argument andersonw. Were you planning on trying to inspire a chopped re-roll or something? Not going to happen.

[Ectomancer]

Had you turned up on the roll, I would have done as I stated and copied your ballot. Then I would have requested that town lynch you #1 and me #2 to completely negate your ballot except for 2 votes day 1 and 1 vote day 2. Why? That's how I'm playing.

...why?

I thought you made clear that you were copying my ballot partly because you trusted me. You would have really copied the ballot of a person you thought was scum? How could that have possibly helped the town?

Because Im doing what I said I would do. I copied your ballot because you were my random choice (by alphabetical order) and then by truly random. I feel good about your likely townhood (not that I trust you). Therefore I wasn't actively working against you. Sarcastro, I do not trust. I would keep my word and copy the random choice, but I would work against him to reduce the effect of both his ballot and mine.

...why?

That's my play. I'm free you see. No pressure, no worries of where I need to be, or how I look. If I remove 1 scum from the game, I've done my job. The rest of you do yours, and keep the other 2 out of the bottom 3.

If we are both town? So what? What guarantee can you give me that any player you pick is really scum and Sarcastro isn't? None.
I'm not going to get into the fear of "what if?". What if he is town? What if he is scum?

The thing is Yos, I could request that to happen, but we both know it wouldn't. Bets would be hedged. One of us would likely go in the top spot to minimize the effect of the double ballot (much as is happening right now), and the other will drift to the middle as not entirely trustworthy. So you see, the effect? It's a non-effect,

except

, if scum I've kept him from the bottom 3, yet again.

It's crowd psychology.

Watch the ripples though. Rocks beneath the surface disrupt the pattern, even if you can't see them on a calm surface. Watch as the town blocs are countered. Watch also as the random factor is limited. You can't influence random. There is a critical moment coming. Town must be in position and be prepared to strike.

[Ectomancer]

I forgot to mention Yos, I could care less if Im lynched first. My feeling is that scum being lynched first is remote in the extreme. It means a townie will go first. That means their ballot will go for naught. The only thing they will have is their voice and its influence. If they are playing "safe", they are useless. The only thing you are likely to get out of them is a desperate last minute defense (that usually sucks). I don't have a problem being that person and taking full advantage of not worrying about blowing my position on the ballot.

[Sarcastro]

Sorry, Thesp, I just can't ignore Ecto (especially when he's practically the only one posting).

Yes, I knew that you would doubt even a 1 in 12 chance. I suppose that I arranged that random roll somehow?

Don't create a straw man, Ecto. I never said it wasn't random. I said that you got lucky. My point was that the fact that Yosarian is

now

a random selection does not change the fact that he was not random before.

re: Sarcatro - continue following inaccurate analogies and you'll be chasing yourself all over the place. This game is 100% win or 100% lose.
Now, in the interest of you being more specific, exactly which gambit of mine do you suppose is a bad hedge bet? I'll show where the analogy falls apart for you.

Yes, you clearly do need to be refreshed on exactly what I was referring to.

You think for some bizarre reason that because Yos statistically has a 75% chance of being town, it is therefore advantageous to give him two votes. Think about this for a moment. How much benefit does the town gain from Yostown having another vote? Conversely, how much benefit do the scum gain from Yosscum having another vote?

Let's assume for a moment that you really are town and you're doing this because you honestly believe that it helps the town's chances. So first of all, that means that by giving your vote to Yos, the town isn't really gaining in the absolute number of votes. The ratio is still 3:1. If Yos is scum, conversely, the ratio becomes 2:1. Right off the bat, your strategy looks very risky.

There are other factors. Admittedly, yes, there is the potential benefit of increased town coordination, but how much of an advantage is that, really? And does it cancel out the increased coordination between your vote and Yos's that the scum also get if he's scum?

Finally, there's the fact that scum can generally take better advantage of their votes than the town can due to the information imbalance, so that makes the 2:1 ratio look even more in the scum's favour. To the point where combined with a decent level of scum play, the game is fairly close to in the bag for the scum. Not a guaranteed win, but getting close. Meanwhile, if Yos is town, all you're doing is giving the town a little bit more coordination.

That's where the analogy comes in. Yes, it's more likely that Yos is town and that you're giving the town an advantage, just as it's more likely that you'll win the $11. But in the not extremely-unlikely situation where Yos is scum, you're giving the scum a

huge

advantage, just as if you lose the bet, you lose $10.

So do you still not see it, Ecto? Your strategy just doesn't make sense. If you really are town, please reconsider it.