Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Mr Stoofer]

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

--

[col]

Ectomancer

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Nocmen
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro
Yosarian2

[col]

Nocmen

Oman
andersonw
Ectomancer
Max
opie
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
Skruffs
Thesp
VanDamien
Yosarian2

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

--

[col]

Sarcastro

--

[col]

Shy Guy

VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Max
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Skruffs

[col]

Skruffs

--

[col]

Thesp

--

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Note:

• Everyone must post a ballot by
  9am GMT Monday 25th February
  .
  
  
• Day 0 will end between
  Monday 3rd March
  and
  Friday 14th March
  .
  
  
• Nocmen
  would be lynched Day 1 on the basis of the above ballots.

[Thesp]

Ohmy goodness, I'm so sorry I've forgotten about this game! Give me a day to catch up, and I'll get crackin'.

[Max]

Day 1: Nocmen
Day 2: Opie
Day 3: Van Damien
Day 4: Ectomancer
Day 5: Oman
Day 6: Thesp
Day 7: Max
Day 8: Skruffs
Day 9: ????

Continue this later

[VanDamien]

Mod:

Firstly, I think you've given my list to Thesp. Also, can we know the process behind why Nocmen would be the current lynch instead of opie?

Corrected -- Stoofer

[Skruffs]

Howdy Hey..
So I've read the rules, I'm curious about the ballots thing.

If, say, I have someone as my number 1 today, and neither I nor them are lynched... do they become my automatic vote tomorrow? Or does it go to the second person on my list, even if the first is still alive?

[Yosarian2]

Max & Yosarian2 have questions of mine to answer.

I do?

You asked me about if the pledging thing could reflect on someone's alignment; I thought that was made clear by the way I responded to ecto, but if it wasn't clear, then yes, of course it could.

Was there anything else?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Shy Guy. When everyone thinks he's town, it makes me think he's not so town.

That dosn't actually make any sense, you know. There are always going to be a few people that most people think are more likely to be town then scum, and you know it certanly is possible for the majority to be right; if it wasn't, then this game wouldn't work.

Anyway, were you going to answer my question, Oman? Why do you think Max and Nocman are likely to be scum but not scum together? Or explain why anyone is where they are on your list?

[Mr Stoofer]

If, say, I have someone as my number 1 today, and neither I nor them are lynched... do they become my automatic vote tomorrow? Or does it go to the second person on my list, even if the first is still alive?

The former.

[Max]

Mod:

Firstly, I think you've given my list to Thesp. Also, can we know the process behind why Nocmen would be the current lynch instead of opie?

Corrected -- Stoofer

My list may be slightly wrong then

[Skruffs]

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Ectomancer
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
Max
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro

Hey guys, read to page three and decided to put out some 2-cents on stuff.
First of all, Shy Guy is at the top of the list for trying to 'set' the way that people do their lists.

I think that if we set a 'rule' about how to arrange things on the list, that the mafia will try hard to sabotage that rule. I believe that if you say "Let's all agree on who's the most TOWN and put them at the bottom", you are giving Scum a free ride to the bottom; All they have to do, then, is play like an innocent townie, working on people's good graces enough to get them close to the bottom. Their partners can be the 'scum', trying to antagonize players enough to get others suspicious of them, etc.

I don't like the idea of having 'one rule' with which to determine how to do our lists. I think that the best solution is for all of us to think independantly. In this system, Libertarianism is the best rule of thumb. Trust yourself and noone else.

And for that reason, I have put Yosarian2 second on the list.
I really did *NOT* like his warning to be suspicious of people who are changing their list close to the end of the day. Especially coupled with Shy Guy's suggestion: It leads to a sort of 'mass hypnosis' wherein people are looking for the 'most popular' players to put as 'town' (And by popular I do not mean 'popular' but rather 'best vibes from', which is then ENFORCED by the fear that going against 'the crowd' will result in retribution. If people want to change their vote at the end of the day, they *Should*, because in the end, you have to follow your gut.


Everyone else is taken from Max's list, page four. I don't have much reads on anyone else, and I think that's a good start. Plus I can change it later. I also thought i twas important to get my two cents in there.

[Yosarian2]

Hey guys, read to page three and decided to put out some 2-cents on stuff.
First of all, Shy Guy is at the top of the list for trying to 'set' the way that people do their lists.

I think that if we set a 'rule' about how to arrange things on the list, that the mafia will try hard to sabotage that rule. I believe that if you say "Let's all agree on who's the most TOWN and put them at the bottom", you are giving Scum a free ride to the bottom; All they have to do, then, is play like an innocent townie, working on people's good graces enough to get them close to the bottom. Their partners can be the 'scum', trying to antagonize players enough to get others suspicious of them, etc.

Um...that dosn't make much sense, you know. If everyone thinks that person X is town, then person X will be at or near the bottom of the lists of the pro-town players. Duh. Isn't that obveous?

And for that reason, I have put Yosarian2 second on the list.
I really did *NOT* like his warning to be suspicious of people who are changing their list close to the end of the day.

Why not?

I'm worried of the possibility that the scum might keep a fairly innocuas list for most of the day, and then as a group change their lists right at the end of the day to a position, at a point when the town won't have much time to respond. Now, the fact that no one knows exactally when the deadline is makes that harder for the scum, but nonetheless, that's the kind of manuever we've got to watch out for and be prepared to respond to.

Which isn't saying that no one should change their votes right before the deadline, of course; I expect people to be changing their votes constantly, I know I will be. If you thought I was trying to imply that people should never change their votes, you misunderstood me.

[Skruffs]

The whole point of Shy Guy's thing is to focus on the end game and not everything before then. I think the best thing is for all of us to discuss and put the scummiest people up top. Don't let an oily scum get to end game. In fact, I would go so far as to suggest, just in case, that the most TOWN player be lynched close to the beginning, too.

I know I will be changing my votes , too. There's a BIG difference between "scum might move en masse" and "be wary of anyone changing their lists close to deadline" - for instance, the first suggests scum groups, the second suggests single people. Maybe you meant it, originally, to be 'a block' but it's not how I remember reading it.

[Yosarian2]

The whole point of Shy Guy's thing is to focus on the end game and not everything before then. I think the best thing is for all of us to discuss and put the scummiest people up top. Don't let an oily scum get to end game. In fact, I would go so far as to suggest, just in case, that the most TOWN player be lynched close to the beginning, too.

...

what?

...

no, really, what?

If we can get rid of a scum early, great, that helps our odds and loweres the impact teh scum have on the game. But the only thing that really matters is what two guys are left at the end.

And that "let's lynch off someone because they look townie" is just...horrible.

I know I will be changing my votes , too. There's a BIG difference between "scum might move en masse" and "be wary of anyone changing their lists close to deadline" - for instance, the first suggests scum groups, the second suggests single people. Maybe you meant it, originally, to be 'a block' but it's not how I remember reading it.

This is what I said

Also if a few people suddenly shift their vote order in subtle ways for wierd, mysterious reasons as the deadline is approaching, look out

I was pretty clearly talking about multiple people shifting their votes right before the deadline, and doing it for vauge, unclear reasons. That's what I was worried about, and that's something the town has to watch out for, I think.

[Skruffs]

It was a pretty quick skim through on that page. I was startled by the 'coupling' I saw of your theory onto his.. conspiracy theories started brewing.

[Shy Guy]

Yosarian2, that was the question. I wanted your explicit answer.

Skruffs, your suspicion of me is absurd. My suggestion for how we play the game is not categorically different than the suggestion "let's put scummy players at the TOP". "let's put town players at the BOTTOM" is an obvious point of general strategy in this set up just as its counterpart is, and your finding me scummy for suggesting we approach this game from both sides is rather perplexing. I cannot even comprehend your point of view, and that is remarkable for me.

I don't understand your comments about Yosarian2, either. You aren't making any sense at all to me. Can you explain better?

[Sarcastro]

I just want to point out that I find it a bit disturbing how many people have Yosarian at the very bottom of their lists. Not to pick on Yos too much just for being good, but out of all the players in this game, he is the one that I am least inclined to trust my read on. In a game where it is important that we put players on whom we have strong pro-town reads near the bottom, I certainly won't be putting a player as good as Yos there unless there are

no

people I feel strongly are pro-town.

The whole "smart/experienced/good player equals town" fallacy is extremely dangerous in this game. This is also why Ectomancer's blind dedication to Yos strikes me the wrong way.

[Nocmen]

Here's my two cents:

We have split between people that want to go with the town and do everything all together, and the people that want to do their own thing and submit a unique ballot.

Also, Skruffs, lynching the most town player early is quite ridiculous, as if they are the towniest player in the game, i would want them near the bottom towards the final 3-4.

I agree with what Yosarian said regarding watch for major vote shifts in the final few days, especially if they are random, or major shifts with no seeming cause but to cause chaos. Once the scum realize that some of them are in order to be lynched first, they will do everything they can to prevent that, and it may be some desparate measures that will hurt them more.

Alas, my new ballot:

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[Nocmen]

EBWOP, because of a damn line break in my ballot above:

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[Mr Stoofer]

Don't worry about a single line break at the top of your ballot. That happens when you use the

Code: Select all

 tag.  I will count (and have been counting) ballots like that in Post 141.[/i]

[Ectomancer]

The whole "smart/experienced/good player equals town" fallacy is extremely dangerous in this game. This is also why Ectomancer's blind dedication to Yos strikes me the wrong way.

Watch yourself there mis-representing my actions. I explained thoroughly my reasoning for going with Yosarian's choices, and I dont recall smart/experienced/or good being a part of any of it. The two <name withhelds> I mentioned I regard as mentally handicapped, which is not the same as saying I think Yos is smart or experienced or good, but I certainly dont consider him to be mentally handicapped either.

[Yosarian2]

Well, Sarc, is there anyone you do feel like you have a read on? As I mentioned in my analysis, you haven't really commented on any specific players yet.

[opie]

Hey guys, I am back from V/LA.

I am entirely fascinated by Ectomancer's idea in Post 78. However, I'm not sure if it could actually work. First it seems like an fairly complex set up which just invites things to go wrong. Second, we would need to get everyone to agree to participate and then a large majority to support one candidate. I'm not sure if that can happen, especially by the end of the deadline.

I like Max's method of ranking, adding and subtracting points. However, In Post 80 he gave some thoughts, but I'm not sure exactly how that corresponds to the results in Post 81. Most notably, I'm not sure how Yosarian2 got to the bottom of his list.

I am somewhat troubled by Ectomancer's reply to ShyGuy in Post 94. The thing I like about Max's is that everyone starts off even no one is more or less scum than another. But Ectomancer seems to have Yosarian2 as the most townie and andseronw and the most scum worthy, which I feel are entirely two different positions to defend from. And I understand that statistically Yosarian2 is more likely town than scum, but couldn't the same thing be true with regards to andersonw. And I understand that he is the default due to the alpabetical listing and the mentality of "You gotta put someone at the bottom!" but I don't know if it serves the town to have this many people with Yosarian2 as there default most town player.

With regards to Skruffs concerns mentioned in Post 134. Isn't it in scum's best interest to always play like an innocent townie and work on people's good graces?

[Thesp]

My apologies - I had a death in the family, and literally forgot about this game. (I was on mafiascum a couple of times, thinking, "All my games are in night, how sad!") Here ae my thoughts, in a disjointed fashion for my own later reference.

Funny thing Sarcasto, I heard the same thing. But I can't remember who I heard it from. Who was it again?

I like you.

Putting my money where my mouth is, this Yosarian thing is somewhat interesting. I can see why he ended up at the bottom of the list, and I have to say that it really is a somewhat random method of selecting a townsperson. Probability states that, if truly random, I have a greater chance of Yosarian being town than scum. By a corrollary, by giving my vote to Yosarian, I also have a greater chance of town being control of the lynch than scum.
pledge Yosarian2

I dislike this on so, so many levels, the least of which is my distrust of Yosarian2.


Ecto looks slightly town, though I waffle on that with his later posts. Nocmen seems scummy - defensive towards Sarcastro, tossing suspicion on people. I like Shy Guy. Yosarian2 is questionable. Attacks opie - likely not partners. Sarc is not scum with Ectomancer. Van Damien is a good guy. Max is off - why grumpy?

I'm putting the finishing touches on a mathemtical algorithm that will help more accurately predict who the scum are based on where they might rank each other in their lists. Don't expect to see the numbers or anything, just the results, and not until near the beginning of March. No sense in letting the scum know what I'm looking for.

Oman notes Nocmen/Max interaction. andersonw is looking for consensus. Skruffs is more likely to be town.

That is all for now.

Code: Select all

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[Yosarian2]

Thesp: Care to explain why, exactally, you think I'm "questionable"?

It feels like I'm about to get lynched here just because a few people thought I looked pro-town early on, and that's basically insane.

[andersonw]

andersonw is looking for consensus.

*points to post 107* Apparently, many people ignored it.

Just got home from school, working on my ballot now.