Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Thesp]

Okay, now that that's out of the way, I suppose I can try out Thesp's suggestion to ignore Ectomancer, though I can't make any promises.

Thanks! I think it's especially helpful to see your interaction with other players, which Ectomancer drowns out.

As for VanDamien,

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

Wait...what? It was shy guy who proposed that we try to find pro-town players, not Van Damien. Van Damien's only stratagy contrabution was to wonder if there was any way to break the game, and then later to decide that there was not.

Shy Guy's post felt more calculated, and VanDamien's felt much more natural.

Thesp, I guess you were clear, but I don't understand your motivation for believing what you do. I see what you are saying, but I am completely unconvinced. It is as if you said "I think the sun is a ripe banana, because it is yellow and has spots." That is exceedingly clear -- but I still see the position as unjustified. I'd like more explanation for why you think VanDamien's proposal of an "auto-win" system leads you to believe that it is an authentic one.

Thesp, could you respond to this?

I don't follow your analogy. I think the manner in which he spoke, whether it's his word selection, the manner in which he presented himself, etc. feels far more natural to me. I could try to analyze sentence structure and the like, but I don't think it'd be worthwhile. If you're not convinced, I'm sorry, but I'm not sure what else I could put forth that would convince you at this point. Sorry.

[Sarcastro]

I should point out that, as I've said before, I agree with Thesp about VD. I think that for me, at least, it had to do with the fact that VD didn't seem to be putting a lot of thought into his post. He basically said "oh, this is something I was thinking about, I'm not sure it would work, more on this later". It didn't feel like it was meant to look pro-town, it felt like VD was just throwing out an idea he had but hadn't thought about too much.

[Ectomancer]

@Sarcastro - If, as you say, coordination can only help scum, then why do you not support going completely random? Random is the antithesis of manipulation.

By your case, we should never have our ballot the same as someone else's in the event that they may be scum. Coordination of ballots of any kind is bad bad bad. (that part I agree with)

So, do you think the remarks concerning how the last rundown of the ballots occured, saying things like "So and so appeared in the bottom 3, we need to take that into account in our ballots", is an inherently scummy statement? (right now I dont recall who said it, but I dont think it was you)

FYI Sarcastro - That post was completely different than your others in tone. Why the change? I want to point out that your "tone" was such from the beginning, before you got into it with Ectomancer, so it has nothing to do with Ecto. (This isn't an attack, I want to know your reasoning)

How do you suggest town should go about determining our ballots, given your last statement? Because I believe it clearly says, nobody should have their ballot the same as someone else's, because double balloting helps scum more than it helps town. And that would be in any case at all, whether determined randomly as I have done, or via "detective work" that makes you think someone else is town.

Should people change their ballot on purpose if they find it matches someone else's? How about when it isn't

exact

, but you think you see a pattern where someone is trying to create a 90% double ballot with you?

[Sarcastro]

Well, it seems we're making at least a little bit of progress, Ecto. I still think you're missing my main point, however. The issue is not so much that having your ballot the same as someone else's is bad. There's nothing wrong with having a ballot that's similar to or the same as someone else's if that ballot truly reflects your suspicions.

What I have a problem with is your idea that somehow copying Yos's ballot

for the sake of copying it

is a good thing. You're not saying "I agree with all of Yos's suspicions, so I'm going to submit the same ballot" but rather "I want to copy someone's ballot randomly, and I happen to have chosen Yos". If you did the former, I wouldn't have a problem with it (well, okay, I would have a problem with it, but it would be an entirely different problem).

So no, I don't think people need to change their ballots for the sake of keeping them different, just as I don't think people should change them for the sake of making them more similar. People should use their ballots the same way they would their vote in a regular game: to try to lynch the people they think are scum.

That said, I don't have a problem with people taking others' ballots into account, of course. If someone doesn't like who ends up in the final three, then I don't have a problem with them changing their ballot to try to get someone else in there (in principle, at least). Like I've said before, any attempt to constrain what people do is more likely to help the scum than the town, because it makes it significantly harder for the town to catch scum.

Anyway, I don't think my previous post was any different from my others in tone, besides that I tried to be a bit friendly toward the end in the hopes that it might convince you to actually think about my argument. If there was a change in the tone you perceived, it seems more likely to me that it had more to do with your perception of my "tone" than my actual one.

If you want a direct answer to how we should determine our ballots, here it is: just rank people in the way that, in your opinion, gives the best chance of lynching scum. Not based on probability or any such nonsense - based on scumhunting, based on your opinions of players, based on self-preservation, even. It's not significantly different from a vote in a regular game; it's just more complex.

[Nocmen]

Right now my biggest concern is that theres so many people actively lurking, posting not much, and just hoping they can go under the radar. The fact that so many people are doing this, however, makes me certain that they all can't be scum, so I don't know where to place them.

[Sarcastro]

Like you, Nocmen? You still haven't answered my questions from earlier.

If you're concerned about people trying to slip under the radar, well, don't do it yourself. Posting some lame pseudo-contribution like "There are lots of people lurking, but I don't know whether they're scum or town" is entirely unhelpful.

[Nocmen]

Sarcastro, I put you near the top due to the fact that while you are searching for scum, you are getting too focused in a few key debates against people (Note: ecto), becoming very aggressive, and just attacking him even more after it's been made certain that he is scum, seems as distancing in order to slide into the final few.

And I don't feel that what I am doing is at all active lurking, I'm already very sure that Ecto is scum, and I'm trying to get discussion towards the other problems that I found when making my ballot regarding who is scum, and this could make or break the game for the town, especially because we don't know when the deadline is. It could be tomorrow.

[Yosarian2]

Sarcastro, I put you near the top due to the fact that while you are searching for scum, you are getting too focused in a few key debates against people (Note: ecto), becoming very aggressive, and just attacking him even more after it's been made certain that he is scum, seems as distancing in order to slide into the final few.

Wait...when was it "made certain" that Ecto is scum?

Seriously, his play this game has not been, well, good, but it's not been good scum-play either. If you want to convince people Ecto is scum, you've got to say more then "his arguments are bad", you've got to demonstrate how those bad argumetns actually would help him if he was scum. And I can't see any way how his odd behavior so far this game would help him if he is scum.

[Nocmen]

To me, Ecto seems that he has taken a ballot from someone that seems like a townie, but has their ballot all wrong, and would serve as an advantage to the scum. Over that, he is then trying to take the other ballots and get people to change them to his plan, which seems to me that any plan that does not have people just making their own ballots as they want to, a way of using the ballots to their own advantage. Ecto has become so strung up in his goals, I'm not even sure if he knows what he wants to do. He says that he doesn't want anyone manipulating the ballots, but I feel copying ballots and using that to solidfy an outcome is manipulation.

[Yosarian2]

Well, you can call it manipulation, but it's certanly not manipulation he's in control of, and the fact that he actually rolled dice and chose randomally makes it even harder to imagine how it could be a scum tactic. I donno, I personally just can't see a scum giving complete control of all of his votes over to a pro-town person, especally consdiering how devious a scum could be with a ballot in this game.

[Shy Guy]

Current ballots?

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw
opie
Thesp
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

[col]

Nocmen

Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs
Shy Guy
opie

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Nocmen
Yosarian2
andersonw
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
Ectomancer
opie
Skruffs
Oman
VanDamien

[col]

VanDamian

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

I believe these are the correct current ballots. If I'm wrong feel free to point it out.

I want to attempt a simulation because I am intellectually curious about IRV, and I want to see what the results will be with the newest ballots.

Before I do it, some comments:

• I find Thesp's latest posts disingenuous. His voting seemed to move me and Yosarian2 up for little reason, and when I asked him about it, he responded to the other part of my post, but not the part about me & Yosarian2 vs. me & opie vs. me & Skruffs. I don't find his position about VanDamien justified at all, and him apologizing for that doesn't make me find him more townlike.
  
• I want to re-read and re-evaluate opie. Especially if he and I end up being in the bottom two again, I want to make sure I find him more town-like than whomever else is in the bottom three.
  
• I find Nocmen reasonable and more townlike recently. I find that it would be hard for scum to put me and opie at the reverse ends of the ballot for scum if we are both town. So I find that Nocmen is probably town unless he and opie are scum together.
  
• I'm very confused about Ectomancer.
  
• I get a very strong pro-town vibe from Skruffs -- I think I'll probably end up putting him to the 2nd to bottom, and if he puts me at the bottom I'd put him at the bottom. I very much want to hear his response to my recent posts. I'll be terribly annoyed with him if he is pro-town and opie isn't, and we lose because opie and me were in the final two instead of Skruffs and me.

Next post I'll try and run a simulation.

[Shy Guy]

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw
opie
Thesp
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

[col]

Nocmen

Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs
Shy Guy
opie

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Nocmen
Yosarian2
andersonw
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
Ectomancer
opie
Skruffs
Oman
VanDamien

[col]

VanDamian

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Day 1

Round 1:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp)
VanDamien (Ectomancer, Yosarian2)
Ectomancer (Nocmen, opie, Sarcastro, Skruffs, VanDamien)
Shy Guy (Max)
Nocmen (Oman)

Round 2:

Shy Guy and Nocmen Eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman)
VanDamien (Ectomancer, Yosarian2)
Ectomancer (Nocmen, opie, Sarcastro, Skruffs, VanDamien, Max)

Round 3:

VanDamien eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman, Yosarian2, Ectomancer)
Ectomancer (Nocmen, opie, Sarcastro, Skruffs, VanDamien, Max)

Tie -- Max had fewer votes in the pervious round, Ectomancer is lynched day 1.

Day 2

Round 1:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp)
VanDamien (Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Nocmen (Oman, opie)
Oman (Nocmen)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Round 2:

Oman eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp)
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Nocmen)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Nocmen (Oman, opie)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Round 3:

VanDamien eliminated:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Nocmen)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Nocmen (Oman, opie, Yosarian2)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Round 4:

Shy Fuy and Yosarian2 eliminated:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Nocmen, VanDamien)
Nocmen (Oman, opie, Yosarian2, Max, Skruffs, Sarcastro)

Nocmen is lynched day 2.

Day 3

Round 1:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman)
VanDamien (Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)
Sarcastro (opie)

Round 2:

VanDamien and Sarcastro eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman, opie, Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Max is lynched day 3.

Day 4

Round 1:

Oman (andersonw)
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Shy Guy)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien, Thesp)
Sarcastro (opie)

Round 2:

Sarcastro and Oman eliminated:
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Shy Guy, andersonw, opie)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien, Thesp)

Round 3:

Shy Guy eliminated:
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Shy Guy, andersonw, opie, Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien, Thesp)

VanDamien is lynched day 4.

Day 5

Round 1:

Oman (andersonw, Shy Guy)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)
Sarcastro (opie)
Thesp (Yosarian2)

Round 2:

Sarcastro and Thesp eliminated:
Oman (andersonw, Shy Guy, opie, Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)

Round 2:

Shy Guy eliminated (less votes Day 4 round 3):
Oman (andersonw, Shy Guy, opie, Yosarian2, Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp, Oman)

Oman is lynched day 5.

Day 6

Round 1:

Shy Guy (Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)
Sarcastro (opie)
Thesp (Yosarian2, Shy Guy)
opie (andersonw)

Round 2:

Shy Guy, Sarcastro, and opie eliminated:
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)
Thesp (Yosarian2, Shy Guy, Skruffs, opie, andersonw)

Thesp is lynched day 6.

Day 7

Round 1:

Skruffs(Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro)
Sarcastro (opie, Shy Guy)
opie (andersonw)

Tie among all candidates except one, extensive Rule 13 application, we go back and find who has been voted for least recently:
Yosarian2, Day 6, round 2.
opie, Shy Guy, Day 6, round 1.
So Skruffs is eliminated.

Round 2:

Skruffs eliminated:
Shy Guy (Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro)
Sarcastro (opie, Shy Guy)
opie (andersonw, Yosarian2)

Round 3:

Shy Guy and Yosarian2 eliminated:
Sarcastro (opie, Shy Guy, Skruffs)
opie (andersonw, Yosarian2, Sarcastro)

Tie, check previous rounds:
Day 7 round 2, same number of votes.
Day 7 round 1, Sarcastro has more votes.

Sarcastro is lynched day 7.

Day 8

Round 1:

Shy Guy (Skruffs)
opie (andersonw)
Skruffs (opie, Yosarian2)
andersonw (Shy Guy)

Tie among all candidates except one, extensive Rule 13 application, we go back and find who has been voted for least recently:
opie, Day 8 round 3.
Shy Guy, Day 8 round 2.
andersonw is eliminated.

Round 2:

Shy Guy (Skruffs)
opie (andersonw)
Skruffs (opie, Yosarian2, Shy Guy)

Skruffs is lynched day 8.

Day 9

Round 1:

opie (andersonw)
andersonw (Shy Guy, opie, Yosarian2)

andersonw is lynched day 9.

Day 10

Round 1:

Yosarian2 (Shy Guy, opie)
opie (Yosarian2)

Yosarian2 is lynched day 10.

opie and Shy Guy remain.

[Shy Guy]

Assuming my ballots and iterations are correct, opie and me would be the last two, again.

But the balance is very precarious -- there are a number of ballots which, if shifted by one, would alter the outcome in unpredictable ways.

I'd be very suspicious from now on if someone drastically alters their ballot without very good reasoning, and would likely alter my ballot to countermand theirs.

If opie is town, we win the game. I'll be doing a re-read after I make this post to see if I think he should be bottom-most instead of Yosarian2.

Day 8 is a pivotal point for me in that if Skruffs and I had each other listed bottom most, I think Skruffs and I would progress to the final 2. So again, I await his input there.

Skruffs, really think hard: I don't see how it could possibly be disadvantageous to you to make it to the final 2 -- do you really think opie has a better chance of being town than of you being town?

After doing that simulation, I empathize more with Ectomancer's view. I don't think I'll be shifting my ballot unless:

1. Skruffs shifts me to bottom and explains why he resisted doing so earlier, then I'd shift him to the bottom.
   
2. I read opie and Yosarian2 and am struck drastically at how Yosarian2 is more town than opie and should be in the final 2 with me instead of opie, then I'd shift Yosarian2 down one slot to below opie.
   
3. Someone shifts their ballot, and I feel like I should shift mine to rank them higher, to countermand their last minute switching.

[Shy Guy]

I skimmed the game, and re-read opie and Yosarian2 fully, and a few of their more controversial posts in context. I can't say one sticks out as significantly more likely to be scum than the other. The one thing that really irks me is opie's mention of Methodical Mafia 1 and how the scum had night choices.

opie, how did you know that? And why did you think it would apply here?

Yosarian2 there is nothing specific I want to point out as scummy, but no compelling reason to put him below opie.

I welcome other's opinions and thoughts about opie vs. Yosarian2, and welcome them to share their thoughts on each other.

In general, I am very comfortable and pleased with my ballot, and especially since I think it is bad in general to change late (and will be suspicious of those who make significant changes late) I am going to leave it for now.

---

However, I re-read Skruffs and springlullaby, and while I disagree with Skruffs on many things I am pretty confident he is town. I repeat, if he puts me at the bottom, I'd put him at the bottom, because I am most confident we would win if Skruffs and I made it to the final 2.

Skruffs, I will say it again for further emphasis and clarity: I can't see why it would be bad for you to put me last and have me put you last. Living longer = pro-your team. And I believe that your team is town, so I want you to live longer. Why do you not want to live longer??

[Sarcastro]

Shy Guy, I don't want to answer for Skruffs, but I would assume based on his high ranking of you on his ballot that his main objection to making it to the final two would be that you would be the other personal in the final two. If he believes you to be scum, it wouldn't make much sense for him to help you get to the final two only to see you win as scum.

That said, I believe you both to be pro-town, and wouldn't mind you and Skruffs as the final two (then again, I wouldn't mind you and Opie, either). However, I must say that your insistence on reciprocity with Skruffs strikes me as odd. Why is it so important that he put you at the bottom of his list? If you're going to make the final two anyway, and you have the power to get Skruffs there with you (note that I haven't looked at the potential voting results in detail to see if this is actually the case, but assuming that it is), why would you only do so if Skruffs makes an essentially meaningless gesture (since you'd get to the bottom two anyway)? I suppose I can understand if you just want it for insurance reasons, so to speak, in case other people's vote changes would move you up, but is this the only reason?

[Nocmen]

I would feel much more content with opie in the end than Skruffs.

[Sarcastro]

Why? You have Skruffs pretty far down your list, if not quite as far as Opie.

[Ectomancer]

Here's my current ballot, if I had one of my own:

Nocmen
VanDamien
Skruffs
Sarcastro
Max
andersonw
Oman
opie
Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Thesp

[Sarcastro]

Ugh, but you

do

have one of your own. Explain, Ectomancer, exactly why we are better off with another copy of Yos's ballot than with your ballot. Obviously you believe that your ballot better reflects the people who are scum, so why exactly is it preferable to lock yourself into supporting Yos's ballot?

[Nocmen]

I became pretty confident in that opie is town with some of his recent attitudes and remarks. Skruffs is sort of the one person that I'm not happy of his posistion in my ballot, but hes there because thats where I would like everyone else.

[Ectomancer]

Ugh, but you

do

have one of your own. Explain, Ectomancer, exactly why we are better off with another copy of Yos's ballot than with your ballot. Obviously you believe that your ballot better reflects the people who are scum, so why exactly is it preferable to lock yourself into supporting Yos's ballot?

I've volunteered for the top slot, so does it matter really whose ballot I copy? Random is Yos2.

Haven't I told you what I planned to do, and then did it? I'll continue telling you and following through.

Here's a question to you: Why are both Yosarian2 and myself at the top of your list?

[Sarcastro]

I've already explained this. I think your play is dangerously anti-town, even if you're not actually scum, and I have my concerns about Yos as well. This is especially true because if he really is scum, he's the most dangerous, due to the extra ballot you're giving him.

[Ectomancer]

I've already explained this. I think your play is dangerously anti-town, even if you're not actually scum, and I have my concerns about Yos as well. This is especially true because if he really is scum, he's the most dangerous, due to the extra ballot you're giving him.

Not true. With me at the top, Yos2 does not have an extra ballot.

So, why is he up top as well? What concerns other than my play?

[Sarcastro]

Ecto, my list was made before it was apparent that you'd be lynched first. And I have noted that I've found Yos mildly scummy. If it looks like a guarantee that you'll be lynched first, though, I'll probably reconsider my placement of Yos, perhaps moving him down a couple spots. I don't think it'll ultimately make a huge difference, though.

[Shy Guy]

Sarcastro, I am insistent Skruffs put me lowest, because of the Day 10 scenario. opie's name could be replaced with any player, but you get the point:

If my ballot is:
opie
Skruffs

opie's is:
Skruffs
Shy Guy

and Skruffs's is:
Shy Guy
opie

Then at Day 10 we have a 3 way tie, and have to resort to tie-breakers. If tie-breakers make me lynched, that is a horrible scenario for me -- I'm much more comfortable having to be correct that one person is town rather than two.

If tie breakers would make Skruffs lynched, there is no reason to have done it in the first place.

Only if tie breakers made opie lynched would it be a benefit to put Skruffs last -- and I'm not willing to rely on tie-breakers on the last day to ensure a town win.

I understand Skruffs has found me scummy... but I'm terribly unsure how that makes sense. Even that aside, assume he does find me very scummy: right now, he would be lynched day 8 or so, and I would make it to the final two.

He has two options: do nothing, or put me last. If he does nothing, I'll still make it to the final two, and he won't.

If he puts me last, I'll still make it to the final two (zero change) but he has a greater chance of making it to the final two. Simply from a costs-benefits analysis, he has nothing to lose by putting me last, and potentially a great gain.

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Nocmen, why do you find opie more townlike than Yosarian2 and Skruffs?

All players, if you could point to substantive reasons and arguments for your placement of opie, Yosarian2, Skruffs, I'd appreciate it. Especially with Yosarian2 and opie, I'm trying hard to figure out who to trust.

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I've been thinking about this game in the back of my mind, and an opie-Nocmen-Thesp group is not terribly unlikely to me, partially because they've both changed their ballots recently to support opie.

Thesp & Nocmen's recent ballot changes support this -- Nocmen moves me and opie down -- since I have opie last, keeping me around is good. Thesp moves Yosarian2 way up and me slightly up -- also a reasonable scum strategy -- removing opie's competitors from the bottom two, and making it more sure opie stays around.

Then again a Yosarian2 scum group doesn't seem terribly unlikely either; many have him low, and they might be hoping a slight shift near the end will knock Yosarian2 into the final two for the win.

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Something that bugs me is that if scum don't have someone making it into the final two right now, they have no reason NOT to be frantically changing their ballots -- Day 0 is our only time for voting and impacting the game, and it now could end any time; it doesn't matter how scummy we find the ballot changers, if they don't change their ballots and there isn't scum in the bottom two (currently that means opie would have to be scum -- or me but I'm not) they lose. So the fact that there hasn't been a massive flurry worries me, it indicates the scum might be winning.

Maybe this is just paranoia on my part -- maybe the scum are Max Oman and VanDamien and they are just screwed, and that's why there isn't a flurry of ballot changes. But since there isn't, either scum are out of reach of winning, or ARE winning, and the second prospect worries me greatly.

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All this contributes to me wanting Skruffs in the final two with me rather than Yosarian2 or opie, in addition to me having a very strong pro-town read on Skruffs.

Skruffs, I again greatly encourage you to put me last, so I'll then put you last.