Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[opie]

Thank you for the explanation. I guess I see a couple of flaws/concerns in the plan. First, we need more than one townie to stick around to the end. I'm not sure if your plan accounts for who follows Yosarian2. Second, the scum will have night choices. What happens if Yosarian2 is night killed tonight? If we all rally around Yosarian2 as you have done, we in effect agree with his list as a whole. And while I think that Yosarian2 is likely pro-town. I don't agree with him on his other choices. By adopting his ballot you seem to suggest that because Yosarian2 is pro-town, his ballot is the most correct.

I understand your intial premise. That statistically Yosarian2 is pro-town. But I'm not sure if I follow your next step in logic, that the town will be best served by adopting his ballot.

I guess my question is, if you think Yosarian2 is pro-town then put him at the bottom of you list, but what advantage is it to adopt his ballot?

[andersonw]

Second, the scum will have night choices. What happens if Yosarian2 is night killed tonight?

There are no night choices. We discussed that a few pages ago.

Btw, I'm not going to be around tomorrow because of a math contest lasting the whole day, and I have been preparing for it.

[opie]

Oh, I must have missed that. In the original Methodical Mafia. The scum had night kills. They had to submit a list of who they wanted to kill each night and who would be the killer each night. I assumed that this game would be similar in that respect.

[Ectomancer]

Thank you for the explanation. I guess I see a couple of flaws/concerns in the plan. First, we need more than one townie to stick around to the end. I'm not sure if your plan accounts for who follows Yosarian2. Second, the scum will have night choices. What happens if Yosarian2 is night killed tonight?

Yes, we do. The closer we get to choosing 3 people at random, the odds are reduced as we remove people from the pool, assuming we got town the first time out. That means the plan cannot account for who follows Yosarian with the same favorable odds. Hence, my move to "double up" by also tying my ballot to Yosarian.
The second concern has been removed.

I understand your intial premise. That statistically Yosarian2 is pro-town. But I'm not sure if I follow your next step in logic, that the town will be best served by adopting his ballot.

I guess my question is, if you think Yosarian2 is pro-town then put him at the bottom of you list, but what advantage is it to adopt his ballot?

Im no longer pursuing anyone else to follow this idea (other than of their own accord). I think variety in the manner by which ballots are generated is a desirable trait. I'm particularly distrustful of mass bargained ballot lists. In my case, there is no bargaining at all. Whatever Yosarian decides to do, that's it. You may all place me at the top of the list if I veer from this course and place any ballot that is not in response and mimicking Yosarian's.
I still retain the right to influence his ballot with my arguments.

[Shy Guy]

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

Max, until you explain what "newbie mistakes" I've made, you are going to stay at number one, unless I must move you down to form consensus.

Thesp, I don't see what you see on VanDamien, can you explain more clearly?

Sarcastro, post a ballot and my suspicion of you might be greatly allayed; right now, you seem like scum waiting to spring at the last second, without explicitly revealing your suspicions or defending them. Also, don't you *have* to post a ballot!?

Until Skruffs responds to me and Yosarian2, he'll stay moved up.

opie strikes me as exceedingly townlike, and I agree with Sarcastro, to an extent, that having people other than Yosarian2 lower might be beneficial. I welcome Yosarian2 to rebut this, though.

We desperately need a method of forming consensus, even if it is simply consensus on the top couple names of the list. The best way I can think of so far is that once the mod posts the updated versions, I'll look at the lists and just suggest an ordering that seems to be near consensus.

If our opinions are too varied, or if no one else agrees we need consensus, I'll reluctantly go with the pledging system and join Yosarian2 and Ectomancer -- though I think it has many faults. Yosarian2 may be scum, he may be wrong about who is scum, and if he is scum would just love to hop on.

I highly encourage others to formulate a better consensus forming strategy than the pledging system or what I've just proposed.

We only have a couple of days -- when I am among the most active, something is wrong! Please play people, or I fear we will lose.

[Sarcastro]

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[Sarcastro]

In case it's not obvious, I just copied the most recently-posted votelist and replaced my name with Shy Guy's, because I realised it was almost the first deadline for voting. I'll be posting a real one tomorrow. Sorry for neglecting this game - it's reading break and I've been busy with other things. I'll be doing a full re-read soon.

[Mr Stoofer]

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Ectomancer
Thesp
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
andersonw
Skruffs
Nocmen
opie
Sarcastro

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

Sarcastro

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Ectomancer
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
Max
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro

[col]

Thesp

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Day 0 will end between

Monday 3rd March

and

Friday 14th March

.

[Mr Stoofer]

Here is a simulation of how the first day would go on the basis of the current ballots:

Round 1

Max: 4 (anderswonw, Sarcastro, Shy Guy, Thesp)
Shy Guy: 3 (Max, Nocmen, Skruffs)
opie: 2 (Ectomancer, Yosarian2)
Nocmen: 1 (Oman)
Ectomancer: 1 (opie)
Yosarian2: 1 (VanDamian)

All those with 0 votes are eliminated.
Nocmen, Ectomancer and Yosarian2 are eliminated and their votes re-distributed.

Round 2

Max: 6 (anderswonw, Sarcastro, Shy Guy, Thesp, opie, Oman)
Shy Guy: 4 (Max, Nocmen, VanDamian, Skruffs)
opie: 2 (Ectomancer, Yosarian2)

opie is eliminated and his votes redistributed.

Round 3

Max: 7 (anderswonw, Sarcastro, Shy Guy, Thesp, opie, Oman, Ectomancer, Yosarian2)
Shy Guy: 5 (Max, Nocmen, VanDamian, Skruffs)

Max now has a majority of votes. He would by lynched at this point.

[Mr Stoofer]

The second day would then proceed as follows:

Round 1

opie: 2 (Ectomancer, Yosarian2)
Shy Guy: 2 (Nocmen, Skruffs)
Yosarian2: 2 (VanDamian, Thesp)
VanDamian: 2 (Sarcastro, Shy Guy)
Nocmen: 1 (Oman)
Oman: 1 (andersonw)
Ectomancer: 1 (opie)

All those with 0 votes are eliminated.
Nocmen, Ectomancer and Oman are eliminated and their votes re-distributed.

Round 2

VanDamian: 4 (Sarcastro, Shy Guy, andersonw, opie)
opie: 3 (Ectomancer, Yosarian2, Oman)
Shy Guy: 2 (Nocmen, Skruffs)
Yosarian2: 2 (VanDamian, Thesp)

Shy Guy and Yosarian2 are eliminated and their votes re-distributed.

Round 3

opie: 6 (Ectomancer, Yosarian2, Oman, Nocmen, VanDamian, Thesp)
VanDamian: 5 (Sarcastro, Shy Guy, andersonw, opie, Skruffs)

opie now has a majority of votes. He would by lynched at this point.

And this continues until one side meets their win condition...

[Thesp]

Thesp and ectomancer's percentage talk is odd.
Why would you use 25% and 75%?
1st of all, there's only 11 roles outside of ectomancer's, not 12, and he doesn't include himself as scum (whether he is or not), so yosarian's chances are actually 27.3%. (Big whoop)

Ah, this is correct, and what I was trying to peg, I just didn't do the exact numbers.

it is still more likely that I am consolidating a townie ballot.

That's the thing - we don't know you actually chose Yosarian2 randomly. He could be a scumbuddy of yours, and you saw this moment as an opportunity to say he's randomly at the bottom (it's an

ex post facto

determination). Had you used dice tags and announced previous to that that you'd pledge your vote to whom the dice told you, that'd be one thing, but you left the human element in there, which I don't have a reason to trust in you.

By the way, Thesp, could you explain why you think Skruffs is pro-town?

I liked his first post, but as I'm re-reading it in light of this question, I'm finding reason to be wary of it. Hrm.

Thesp, I don't see what you see on VanDamien, can you explain more clearly?

I'm not sure how I could be more clear than my last response:

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

We desperately need a method of forming consensus, even if it is simply consensus on the top couple names of the list.

I'm not sure how important this is. I'm pondering on it.

[Ectomancer]

it is still more likely that I am consolidating a townie ballot.

That's the thing - we don't know you actually chose Yosarian2 randomly. He could be a scumbuddy of yours, and you saw this moment as an opportunity to say he's randomly at the bottom (it's an

ex post facto

determination). Had you used dice tags and announced previous to that that you'd pledge your vote to whom the dice told you, that'd be one thing, but you left the human element in there, which I don't have a reason to trust in you.

Very true, but that's

your

problem. The solution was to solve

my

problem. You'll have to find a solution of your own.

[Shy Guy]

Oh! I did not understand the voting system as well as I'd thought!

My previous example is incorrect, and now, truly understanding the voting system, I am much less committed to a consensus forming plan. I apologize to all those I might have confused by this, and to those who might have found me scummy out of my misunderstanding.

Thesp, I guess you were clear, but I don't understand your motivation for believing what you do. I see what you are saying, but I am completely unconvinced. It is as if you said "I think the sun is a ripe banana, because it is yellow and has spots." That is exceedingly clear -- but I still see the position as unjustified. I'd like more explanation for why you think VanDamien's proposal of an "auto-win" system leads you to believe that it is an authentic one.

[opie]

That didn't turn exactly the way I thought it would either. I guess I didn't fully understand the concecpt of elimination until now.

[Oman]

Mod

So was max scum?

[Yosarian2]

He's not lynched yet.

That's just how the day WOULD go if it were to end now. The day dosn't actually end until we hit deadline. The deadline will be some random time between March 3rd and March 14th; we have until then to change our votes if we don't like the way it's currently going.

So, at the moment, we're set up to lynch Max first, unless people change their votes. Max, could you explain why you have been quietly moving me farther and farther up your list?

[Mr Stoofer]

I have prodded VanDamien.

[Oman]

He's not lynched yet.

'Twas a joke.

[Nocmen]

He's not lynched yet.

'Twas a joke.

You sure about that?

[Max]

Let's all lynch Oman. Shy Guy, I think I meant newbie vibes, you seemed to be concentrating on the theory of the game rather than the action taking place, in my experience the aim is to hunt for scum not to discuss the theory and such such

[Skruffs]

Sorry about the lagging, catching up from page 6...

Skruffs, your suspicion of me is absurd.

You are not above suspicion, regardless of how good you think your suggestion is or how good it seems. I am absolutely allowed to question any player's motivations in this game; don't try to deny or restrict that freedom.

My suggestion for how we play the game is not categorically different than the suggestion "let's put scummy players at the TOP". "let's put town players at the BOTTOM" is an obvious point of general strategy in this set up just as its counterpart is, and your finding me scummy for suggesting we approach this game from both sides is rather perplexing. I cannot even comprehend your point of view, and that is remarkable for me.

That is because both sides are not categorically different, and both sides are WRONG... any system that is set up, the scum can attempt to infiltrate and corrupt. Forcing each player to individually contribute, rather than trying to organize bandwagons, is the only way we can safely win, I think.

I don't understand your comments about Yosarian2, either. You aren't making any sense at all to me. Can you explain better?

What do you want explanations of?

Also, Skruffs, lynching the most town player early is quite ridiculous, as if they are the towniest player in the game, i would want them near the bottom towards the final 3-4.

Scum only have to act town for ONE DAY. Really think about that before you discredit the idea of lynching the 'obv town' player. We don't get to redo our guesses.

I've already said what i think of ecto's 'blind following' gambit and haven't caught up in responses, more to come in next post.

(or in this post, i am responding as i read after all)

sarc says he doesn't like yos's 'confirmedness', yos responds by asking who sarc would confirm. odd.

opie is in similar brain wave lengths as i am regarding the townie/yosarian situation.

thesp thinks i am town, that's odd. but is it a scum tell? Hmm. i like post 147, it's informative without being too opinionated OR too watered down, (And condolences thesp)

yos: why is it insane that you 'are about to get lynched' for seeming pro town? does anything strike you as odd that so many people are 'clearing' you so early in the day?

NExt: Page 7

[Skruffs]

Page 7:
Maxs point system.. interesting. I don't know how I would implement that; i already have slight biases and don't know how to 'judge' the level of bias.

I copied max's(?) ballot and modified it slightly, but that is not because I agree with Max's list; i am completely neutral about him; i just wanted a list and it was the first one i saw. I think (said before) that denouncing your own opinions in a game is unhelpful at best, you are literally removing a voice from the game if town and avoiding all responsibility of suspicion if scum. I really don't like it.

153: opie is speaking clearly, if timidly. interesting that the bulk of his suspicions lay on people who were suspicious of people he found to be town, which isn't generally a good way to see things as town. Remember to keep in mind this is a one-day game.

154: ah, me and nocmen react the same way, bonus points of nocmen.

155: opie's response is odd: He uses the same three people he defends in 153 to suggest that he disagrees with them in who he's voting for; it strikes me as he's claiming 'distancing' in this post, but it's too obvoius to be that, isn't it?

156: Ecto has a strange wa of defnding against opie: "Why do you think I'm scummy, I'm mimicking someone you say you think is town." is how I translate his argument.

157: shy guy tends to in every post point out who hasn't answered his questions, but hsi questions generally are vague to start off with. IV"e noticed it three times in this game, unless i am doubling up on a post. His urgency to have everyone 'lined up in a row' is further evidenced by his suspicion of players he can't 'decrypt' - unfortunately with me in this game it means i am very likely to be high up on his list the rest of the day.

his diagram in the next post is an effort to explain why everyone should agree whole heartedly on the order to lynch, however, that suggestion is breeding disaster. Who is going to agree to eb lynched first? Who will agree to lynch someone they think is town, first, if they are 'designated' to be second? What form of majority should eb used to determine everything else?

which brings up a very good point

.

Perhaps our best way to do this is to faux-lynch each other, in a simulation of what would happen if our mock voting was taken serious. each player gets 'one vote' per day, and once a majority of 'living' players is reached all ohers are ignored, that player's 'votes' no longer count in the future and we continue on. it would be imperfect, and 'no reveal', but it might be useful regardless. Also, knowing who is 'lynched' at each day can help determien the order we each want to do our lists.

I don't like nocmen accusing shy guy of being more experienced than he lets on to be; why does it matter? if he's an alt, he was an alt before he got his role.

anderson: posts ballot, explanation to follow whee! Suspense.

161:
max's bump of shy guy isn't quite explainede, or maybe i am misunderstanding something.

162 my place holder post, man that guy is scummy, lurking like that. That was a rough week, and i guess it hadn't sunk in that this game is very limited in length.

thesp:
i'm sure there are at least 3 players trying to 'break the game', if you know what i mean. Why are his attempts protown?

opie's 166 is written like an explanation but reads like a self defense.

167: thesp call out shy guy as an alt, lulz, i'd think i was reading ahead and posting stuff as speculation if i didn't know better.

168: oh, i posted right after, so maybe i did read ahead. bah.

169 :semantics

ecto:
regardless of if you are right or not, or town or not, your play isn't helpign the rest of town hunt scum. your post 169 is saying 'what if i'm right', but you are basically sayign you aREN'T right, because you are letting yosarian choose for you, and regardless of what yosarian says, you can only know he is town, if YOU AREN'T. Your abundance of faith is disturbing, and therefore more likely scum. or in other words: "Classic Buddying"

you sholdn't be consolidating anyone's ballot, you should be 'out in the trenches' like the rest of us.
that you seem to relish the confliction that is being caused, even to the point of the person you are basing your votes on being considered MORE SUSPICIOUS, strikes me that you are in fact just trying to discredit a 'town' player, as scum. fos fos fos.


170: shy guy shuts down alt talk. odd.
what posts did i not respond to shy guy?

171 - oman has filler posting.

172 followed by opie's.

173: yos: what do YOU think about me? you seem to be skirting an issue in askign thesp about me.

174: this seems like a resignation speech. again, yosarian being TOWN does not mean he is CORRECT in his suspicions. I, as scum, have exploited confirmed town's suspicions in multiple games, it's stupid to assume someone knows more than you in a game where all town are informaionless and only scum have info. stupid and dangerous.

end of page 7, pag e8 after lunch!

[Skruffs]

Page 8:
I am liking Opie's mistake there about the scum. He's seemed low key and earnest through the day so far; it strikes me that this is an honest mistake and not a planted one.

Ecto still trying to validate his plan; still not seeing it.


Shy guy:
Again, what do you want me to respond to in regards to you and yos?

Thesp:
It's not much difference, day one. But look at how it effects the game, later on.

Ecto:
You are more and more scum with every post. If I was scum, I would probably be playing exactly like you.

shy guy:
What about the voting plan did you misunderstand - and seeing it like that, do you understand my own view on how things should be done?

max:
What about oman strikes your fancy?

posts 195 and 196 are boring.

Makign a new code list, influenced heavily by yos, thesp, shy guy, and ecto. Opie too.

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

MOD: Spring lullaby in Ectomancer's post should be Skruffs, and ShyGuy in Opie's should be Shy Guy. Sorry for the nitpicking, but trying tro do condorcet only works if your tables work! <3

gonna post this now and then provide full data results of what would happen as of this post right after

[Skruffs]

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Ectomancer
Thesp
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
andersonw
Skruffs
Nocmen
opie
Sarcastro

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

This should be a correct and accurate table. (It's what I am using anyways)

[Yosarian2]

yos: why is it insane that you 'are about to get lynched' for seeming pro town? does anything strike you as odd that so many people are 'clearing' you so early in the day?

It's insane if some people suspect me simply because other people think I'm town, yes. That's the worst kind of crap logic, a pretty much pure example of the "too townie" fallacy. And it's self defeating logic anyway; there's always going to be someone who's at the bottom of everyone's lists, and saying "X is scummy because he's at the bottom of A, B, and C's list" without some other logical reason to suspect X or to suspect A, B, and C is just inherently illogical.

As for do I think it's odd, no, not really. In both reverse mafia and vanillia reverse mafia (games when everyone voted for the least suspicious person, to choose who they wanted to "revive"), I was picked as the most pro-town person during day 1, and I was pro-town both times. So no, it dosn't seem at all wierd for a fair number of people get a strong pro-town vibe from me during day 1.