433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over


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Post Post #725 (isolation #0) » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:28 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

All righty. A favor has been called in, so I am apparently replacing NanookTheWolf. For starters, I'll
Unvote
in case I'm voting. I'll try to get around to reading the thread soon, and before anybody asks,
no
I do not want a synopsis of the game since I'd rather read it for myself instead of getting someone's take on what has happened up until now.

After looking at the front post, I am assuming the town is in LyLo. There don't appear to be death methods in the first post, so I assume you lynched wrong D1, there was a nightkill, you lynched wrong on D2, and then there was another nightkill? If that's the case, I would be
very
cautious with your votes.

PPE: Actually, the title says "Day Two", so now I'm confused. Were there three nightkills on N1 or something?
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #727 (isolation #1) » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:52 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Thanks.

And a "1-Shot" Vig, you say? (And no, that doesn't count as a synopsis, since you aren't trying to force me into having a certain opinion). I will note off-the-bat that strikes me as unrealistic, but this is only being said without having read any of the game yet (except for the first page now). My reasons off the top of my head:

1.) This is a mini regular game - if you're going to get a Vigilante role, it's
much
more likely to be a full-fledged Vigilante, especially since none of the other three dead power roles we have are limited in any such way.
2.) Apparently, there were three night-kills last night. On the surface, this indicates to me that there are two scum-groups (either two mafias of 2, or a mafia of 2-3 and a Serial Killer). Against dual killing abilities, I would
definitely
expect a full vig instead of a 1-Shot.
3.) If somebody only had 1-Shot, I am not likely to believe they would use it on Night One - the night where they have the
least amount of information
. I would certainly hope they would "keep it in their pants" until at least Night 2 in that situation.

Will probably read up until about page 5 and then go to bed (since it's almost 4:00 am here).

Also, another thought has struck me: if there is another Vig in the game, it may be in their best interests to simply not counter-claim Kilmenator and to instead take her out tonight. The hitch (seems there always is one) is that if she is scum, this will still allow her to nightkill tonight, whereas we may otherwise take away a nightkill by lynching her.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #730 (isolation #2) » Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:21 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pages 1-5


This is a list of the posts I found most notable of the players who are still alive. I am more than willing to flesh out these thoughts more than I have done so in this list, but I am tired and trying to be concise.
  • Superstring91, post 34 [don't like] – it's hypocritical to say you're against a wagon of 4
    while being on it
    and not unvoting
  • Dasquian, post 43 [like] – I completely agree with this post. Although I do tend to be somewhat conservative with my votes later in games, early game is the time where you need to use them to your advantage while you can do so without fear of quicklynches to get max info.
  • pete d, post 56 [don't like] – I disagree with this sort of "tacit consent" argument. thorgot was not posting in this game, so he could not unvote. Finding him suspicious in particular (especially since other players in the game did not unvote) looks like selective pursual
  • kilmenator, post 59 [don't like] – says a whole lot of nothing for somebody just posting.
  • Dasquian, post 72 [don't like] – this post appears to read from a scum's perspective. "The mafia are
    not
    all going in for the kill, nor would it make sense for
    us
    to do so if you were right about
    us
    ..."
  • kilmenator, post 82 [don't like] – I don't know if this is a trend, but kilmenator is sticking to theory discussion without commenting on what she thinks about actual players. If this turns into a theme in her play, I would suggest forcing her to nail down comments on players.
  • Dasquain, post 92 [like] – Takes focus from two players [who both turned out to be town] to other players.
  • Dasquain, post 107 [like] – I completely agree here. When somebody asks to be replaced in a situation like that (although it's WIFOM) chances are they're town. If they were trying to pull something like this in order to win, getting replaced means they can't count it as a win - so it's self-defeating. I am getting continually more confused why kilmenator is claiming to have used her 1-Shit Vig ability on MBL (who replaced Dodgy, the claimed Doctor).
  • kilmenator, post 110 [don't like] – Now I'm even more confused.
    Kilmenator assumes scum will kill Dodgy because he claimed Doctor
    , and that "I guess we'll find out tonight". Why then would Kilmenator vig him? This is not making any sense. There had better be an explanation for this later, or I know where my vote will go.
Will work on reading more of the game later.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #734 (isolation #3) » Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:48 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pages 5-10
  • thorgot, Post 138 [don't like] – For how little thorgot has said, saying "something that draws suspicion to a
    town
    player is inherently
    anti-town
    " seems wrong on some level. It almost reads like an attempt to cast suspicion on Dasquain while calling him town. I could be misreading this, so I won't put much stock in it.
  • thorgot, Post 146 [don't like] – "I was joking about my suspicions" is a complete cop-out, and sounds like backtracking. Furthermore, saying "it signifies nothing [...] for all we know,
    both
    Fonz and Dodgy are scum" seems quite the opposite of "signifying nothing". If he is suspicious of one, and then retracts it claiming suspicions on both, saying "it signifies nothing", I'm sensing serious contradictions.
  • kilmenator, Post 184 [just noting] – I am surprised somebody sided with The Fonz in this discussion, but I suppose this will be the seed that starts the claim of 1-Shot Vig (whether or not it is true). I can't understand how 'retracting a claim' in that situation is scummy – I would have likely done the same thing had I replaced in (although I personally would have said "I will neither confirm nor deny my predecessor's claim").
  • kilmenator, Post 222 [just noting] – Kilmenator here claims that she often leaves crumbs for her roles, so she had
    better
    have a crumb for "1-Shot Vig" if this is actually a habit of hers and she went out of her to mention it in this game.
  • gorkcat, Post 224 [don't like] – I never like it when one lurker points at another lurker with their vote, especially when there is so much discussion. He should be able to have a better vote than that.


I am finding the whole Fonz discussion over the Doc claim frustrating, because I (along with Dasquain and Sweeny) would have been arguing that CES should not need to claim his role whatsoever. The Fonz may have turned out to be town, but I think if I were in the game I would have been voting him at that time.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #735 (isolation #4) » Fri Aug 10, 2007 1:24 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pages 11-15
  • Dasquain, post 253 [like] – If it isn't obvious, I'm pretty solid in thinking Dasquian is town so far. He has had ample opportunity to pressure townspeople into lynches, and continually does not do so.
  • kilmenator, post 278 [don't like] – This post is very unsatisfying for some reason. Why not say "I don't want to be seen as scummy, so why would I do scummy things?" Nobody wants to look scummy (or at least most people don't want to), and nobody (presumably) wants to do "noobish things". Saying "why would I?" does not explain "you
    did
    , so what do you have to say for yourself?". Fleh.
  • gorckat, post 285 [confused] – Gorkcat, could you explain why you went from starting to pressure kilmenator to shifting to gorckat? Dropping pressure on somebody while you're in the process of questioning them does not give them incentive to answer you (at least not right away). I don't find this scummy, it just confuses me.
  • Superstring91, post 298 [don't like] – This strikes me as rehashing what others have said in order to place a vote, and not putting much original thought into the game. I don't think this is the first time I've had this feeling, either.
  • Nanook, post 302 [SLAP] – How is it I have a habit of replacing people I completely disagree with? Argh.
  • Pie_is_good, post 318 [don't like] – CES is a player who pretty much posts 1-liners, and I'm fairly sure Pie oughta know that. Calling him scummy
    because
    he is posting 1-liners seems to be ignoring that. Furthermore, nobody has in any way counterclaimed the Doctor claim, so why the hell would you go voting the claimed Doctor? I just don't understand these votes. I suppose I have to concede that it's possible to hold this position as town, given that both Nanook and IH also both voted CES upon replacing in. *sigh*
  • kilmenator, post 347 [don't like] – Here kilmenator misrepresents pete d – it seems obvious to me that when pete d says "kilmenator seems to be trying to put pressure on whilst keeping herself distanced", he means she is trying to put pressure while making it look like it's not coming from her. "Distanced" does not mean "distancing from a scum partner". Another small aside: kilmenator claimed to have just reread the game at this point in time, and yet did not know whether or not she was voting. That indicates to me she wasn't reading very closely.
  • Off the Mark, post 352 [noting] – This post is striking me as possibly trying to shift pressure from kilmenator to InHimShallIBe, and OTM is not explaining what he thinks about kilmenator's post is "good", because I don't understand. This could be a connection, since OTM has previously said Kilm is a "main suspect", and now when Kilm gives a post which
    I
    don't think was very good, he suddenly drops it and puts a fourth vote on InHim, it makes me wonder if
    this
    is distancing.
  • kilmenator, post 363 [noting] – Again, kilmenator mentions how CES "will be a target at night", which
    again
    makes me wonder why she would use a
    one-shot
    ability on somebody she claims she thought was
    going to die
    .
  • InHimShallIBe, post 372 [noting] – And I'm not the only person to notice the immediate vote retraction of OTM off kilmeantor. Gorkcat did the same thing, as an extra note. Since I'm assuming InHimShallIBe was lynched sometime soon after this, I'm thinking it could easily be because he was starting to hit the nail on the head. Gonna be watching how these votes play out.
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Post Post #736 (isolation #5) » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:11 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pages 16-20
  • Off the Mark, Post 381 [noting] – Immediately decided to confirm his vote on InHim after being speculated as being scum with Kilmenator. OTM, what other games have you played with kilmenator? Please link them to me.
  • gorckat, Post 384 [noting] – A second instance of an implicit defense of kilmenator [by attacking InHim]. If the set-up is something like [3 Mafia, 1 SK], I think {kilmenator, OTM, gorkcat} is a reasonable place to start looking.
  • kilmenator, Post 398 [don't like] – For some reason, this sixth vote on InHimShallIBe without comment does not surprise me.
  • kilmenator, Post 406 [REALLY don't like] – If kilmenator really thinks CES is scum, she ought to be
    voting him
    and
    not InHimShallIBe
    . Terrible, terrible. I
    really
    think kilm is scum here.
  • The Fonz, Post 417 [noting] – Wow,
    big surprise
    that Fonz died after making this post where he also thinks kilm/OTM are a good place to start looking at on D2.
  • Pie_is_good, Post 424 [strange] – Pie, I know you as the guy who is always suggesting mass-claiming and generally wants people to claim. Why do you suddenly think InHimShallIBe should not claim at lynch-1 on day one? This seems contrary to what I would expect of you here. {Note: Pie then thinks both CES and InHimShallIBe should claim in that order in [Post 435], which seems to be more Pie-like, but then I don't understand why he gave the impression that he believed InHimShallIBe should not claim on principle.}
  • kilmenator, Post 480 [noting] – Thinks MBL should be dealt with D2...
  • kilmenator, Post 486 [don't like] – Seriously, what the hell. What's the point of even saying this?
Also, I think the first thing I will do address [Post 400] by Dasquian, since InHimShallIBe cannot answer for it. Replacing into a game and pursuing a scum-partner is by now means unreasonable. I
just
finished a game under an alt account where this exact same thing happened.

In Mini #424, Sweenytodd replaced in and voted his partner Ancalagon in this post. Why indeed? Because Ancalagon was already in some hot water, and it works for distancing purposes later on. Trying to use this a point of "Why would I attack my scumpartner?" answers itself – it allows you to
ask that very question
. [Note: I was Javert, in case any of you are wondering where I am in that game].

Also, as a complete aside, I don't remember kilmenator breadcrumbing being a Mason in Mini #424 (despite her claim that she often breadcrumbs her roles). This makes me much more interested in other games where she has breadcrumbed her role in posts.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #737 (isolation #6) » Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:44 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pages 21-25
  • kilmenator, Post 515 [REALLY don't like]. This late in the day, saying
    "I honestly believe that if MBL is not scum, he will die tonight"
    means it makes
    no sense to Vig him
    .

  • Off the Mark, Post 537 [don't like] – I'm noticing as attention starts to shift to Off the Mark, his reaction is to FoS two people in a row (the last two people to mention they are wondering about him, in fact).
  • Gorckat, Post 538 [noting] – Gorckat puts InHim back in the hotseat over OTM. Noting this because the scumgroup of {Kilmenator, OTM, Gorckat} is just coming together more and more.
  • OTM, Post 585 [noting] – "Oh, and I guess a Vig killed MBL?" is reading to me "Oh, let me set up kilmenator's claim by making it more plausible for a Vig to have killed MBL". I
    really
    think we have a pair of scum here.
  • kilmenator, Post 592 [don't like] – Suggesting a mass-claim in this situation so early is
    not
    striking me as town. It is reading to me as "how about everybody claims to the mafia and SK can coordinate their kills?". Argh, so scummy.
  • OTM, Post 593 [don't like] – "Well gosh, kilmenator, I dunno. Please explain to me the benefits of this plan, so that I can act as if you convinced me and we totally don't look connected."
  • OTM, Post 599 [don't like] – And now we have "Hey guys, if I don't know the flavor it's because I deleted my role PM. A-yuk!"
  • kilmenator, Post 615 [don't like] – Firstly, this does not have a breadcrumb like she says she does (which is apparently hiding something like "I am Doc"). Secondly, no – kilmenator said
    the scum would take out MBL
    . Thirdly, she only started saying this near the end of the day – in other words, probably around the time when she was making up her fake-claim. I don't believe it, and I will very likely be voting her.
As I was reading, it occured to me that a kilmenator scum-group could not possibly (or at least I would
hope
not) be able to take out both The Fonz and MBL, so I'll retract that earlier statement as being impossible.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #738 (isolation #7) » Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:00 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

And now I've read pages 26-30 a bit dumbfounded. It's fairly obvious that kilmenator pretty much
has
to be town since the town stupidly
mass-claimed
(why, why, why?) so that had there been any more power-roles they could have been immediately killed the very next night. Since I really don't think there are 3 killing groups that are all anti-town, this pretty much means kilmenator must also be town, but that she just (and pardon me, but I have to say it) has freaking sucked this game.

Seeing as I have to toss my largest suspect completely out the window, I will have to rethink the entire game because as I was reading I ended up trying to nail the scum-partners for kilmenator, which obviously would now not exist. I still have town vibes from Dasquain, and off the top of my head I would probably want to vote either OTM or Gorkcat right now, but I will have to read the game
again
with the knowledge that kilmenator is town before I think about placing a vote anywhere.

And this is why it's best to not tell people stuff that has happened while they replace into a game... it affects how I read it, and the conclusions I come to. I don't blame Dasquain for this, but I'm not too happy I just read through the entire game becoming more and more sure kilmenator was scum and then having it flipped upside-down in the last few pages.
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Post Post #739 (isolation #8) » Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:05 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Also, I'll note that both IH and The Fonz had "investigative" roles. Gunsmiths check for guns (would probably get a "gun" result for any scum, and a Vigilante), and the Watcher sees everybody who targets a certain player at night (so they could 'watch' somebody being killed - and if that person doesn't claim to kill them, you know you've caught a scum).
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #743 (isolation #9) » Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:40 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

OTM wrote:PJ, I was convinced you were scum, you were pushing the whole Kilm-OTM-gorckat thing so hard, with little-to-no evidence, but glad to see you came around eventually. Hopefully you will not be stuck in a rut again during your next reread.
I understand that the pairing I thought was most likely is practically impossible by this point, by I
am
interested that you say I pushed it "with little-to-no evidence". Did you fully understand my reasons for why I would doubt she was telling the truth
upon replacing
into the game without having full knowledge of everything that happened? I felt I was pushing it with
quite a lot
of evidence, especially for a town which has turned out to be mountainous after one night (since we now have no power roles whatsoever).
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #750 (isolation #10) » Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:26 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Off the Mark wrote:I guess I can see how PJ would think that way, but I think he took a theory that was based on very little and kept looking for things to confirm it, rather than objectively evaluating all the evidence on its own. Basically he ended up making a mountain out of a molehill. Also, he never commented on my belated analysis of kilm's post, which I thought was a bit suspicious at the time, since it addressed one of his earlier suspicions directly.
Please read post [727] to see where I start off. While I was just starting to read the game, I was given a small tidbit of information by Dasquain, which subsequently affected my entire read on the game. Objectively, with the information I had, kilmenator's role looked entirely unlikely - and I explained why. As I was reading, kilmenator kept making comments like "the scum will likely kill MBL tonight"... but if a Vig thinks
scum
is going to kill somebody, they should not waste their time vigging them - especially if they only have a 1-Shot ability.

I could not think about the game "objectively evaluating all the evidence" because I didn't
have
all the evidence. I posted my thoughts
as I received evidence while reading
. In other words:
  • I read Day One with the luxury of knowing five roles, instead of one (the four dead and my own).
  • I read Day One with the knowledge that kilmenator had claimed a 1-Shot Vig who had killed a Doctor on Night One... a Doctor claim
    I believed
    while I was reading.
  • I read Day One
    without
    the knowledge that the town had mass-claimed and that kilmenator was the only person who could possibly be responsible for explaining a third death.
So in that regard, I could not take all the evidence into account because I didn't have all the evidence you have while I was reading. I
will
concede, however, that I was very likely being affected by "confirmation bias" - I kept convincing myself more and more that kilmenator was scum, and I explained my reasoning for this. As such, I also began looking for partners for kilmenator.
OTM wrote:Also, he never commented on my belated analysis of kilm's post, which I thought was a bit suspicious at the time, since it addressed one of his earlier suspicions directly.
Link, please? Replacing into a 30-page game means I'm inevitably not going to be able to respond to everything.
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Post Post #753 (isolation #11) » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:38 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Metagame question:

From my own experience, when CES is actually helpful, he turns out to be scum, and when he is being completely useless, he is often town. Do you agree or disagree with this? I just want to gauge how you read CES, since I probably do it differently than most people.

Also, I will note that it's not
necessarily
the case we are in LyLo - most likely, we're dealing with a scum-group of 3 and a SK. So long as we get scum to crosskill, the town should have a reasonable shot at pulling this out (despite our lack of power). If the scum would like to obviate themselves by quicklynching, I'm all for it. Then the SK (so long as that person is not the lurker) can kill off one of the quicklynchers, and we can lynch a second quicklyncher-scum tomorrow. Regardless, we
know
there are three killing groups, and one of them was the 1-Shot Vig, leaving 2 scum-groups who are more than free to kill each other.
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Post Post #754 (isolation #12) » Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:45 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

To clarify by way of example:

Worst case (if scum continually hits townies):
  • Lynch townie, scum-group (say two people) quicklynches = 7 alive
  • SK kills quicklynching scum, scum kills townie = 5 alive
  • Lynch quicklynching scum = 4 alive
After that, it's in the air. If scum cross-kill, town wins. If scum double-kill the same person, the town can No-Lynch, and the scum have a higher chance of cross-killing. If scum kill the last two townies, we lose. If one cross-kills and the other does not, town loses. Frankly, I already think we're in a bad position as it is -
and
I'm quite positive we have to rely on crosskilling anyways. So in a way, having the scum out themselves (even for the process of killing a townie) really isn't
so
bad all things considered, since it guarantees that
at least
one scum will be crosskilled.

And for those who would like to paint this as directing kills: yes, I am. The scum-groups need to realize that their biggest threat
right now
is the other scum-group, so they oughta be trying to kill each other at night. Just sayin'.
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Post Post #764 (isolation #13) » Tue Aug 14, 2007 9:53 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

You're reading my post wrong, gorkcat. I'm saying that
of
the scum-group, for that example, two of them out themselves for the purpose of quicklynching somebody. That's why my example has both "quicklynching scum" being killed - on by SK, the second by lynching. Then (as should be clear when reading my post) it's going to be a toss-up with whether or not scum are going to cross-kill each other.
Dasquian wrote:pj - surely the worst case is that we have 3 scum and a SK, and we lynch a townie today, the mafia kill the SK, and the SK kills a townie. That leaves us with two townies and three scum, which is a scum win. Hoping that the scum make it easy to cross-kill each other by obviously quick-lynching a townie seems more than a little optimistic to me.
The point of my post was that if scum tried to
quicklynch
there is
no way
a SK should miss killing one of those scum - because it would be obvious who was scum if they tried to quicklynch. In that regard, it's not as "dangerous" for OTM and pete d to vote specifically
because
it obviates scum if they try to take advantage of it, making themselves targets for immediate death.
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Post Post #766 (isolation #14) » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:00 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Okay, reading the game anew with the precondition that kilmenator is likely town. I'll try to only point things I don't believe I have pointed out (or if I do, because I see some extra significance in it).

1.)
I think it might be notable that some players seem to be ignoring certain lurkers and not others. For example, at the time this post by Superstring91 was made, I believe gorkcat had far fewer posts than thorgot. In fact, at this point in time (May 1st), gorkcat only had
two
posts, neither of which expressed any suspicions whatsoever. Noting possible connection between Superstring91 and gorkcat here.

2.)
Similarly, I don't understand this post by gorkcat... he lists the latest activity of the town, and then votes thorgot (despite Southpaw and Sweenytodd [who was replaced as InHim and actually did have more recent posts]) without explanation, although it would make more sense to vote Southpaw in this context. Connection noted.

3.)
Not sure if I noted this before, but I don't like this post by Superstring91 – he talks about echoing, but his post here is a complete echo of what has just been happening. Gorkcat follows suit in his next post. This is a second connecting between Gorkcat and Superstring91.

4.)
Of the counter-CES wagon (to the InHim wagon), the worst vote to me looks to be this vote by OTM. In particular, voting somebody because "they're a dead man anyways" isn't a reason at all to vote somebody.

To elaborate (although this is less true in a game with multiple killing groups), the own only has a set number of lynch attempts they get in order to lynch scum. For the sake of argument, let's freeze this at 4 lynches maximum for this particular game. If you think somebody is going to die
at night
, there is no point in lynching them
during the day
– because that takes a town lynch, and since that person was 'going to die anyways', it makes it so the scum now get to kill a townsperson who was actually
helping
the town. It's really equivalent to shooting yourself in the foot.

5.)
Don't like 527 by gorkcat – "say, I agree with looking at OTM, cuz remember I said I was suspicious of thorgot
LOL
". The post just isn't reading "innocently" to me. I also don't like that it is closely followed by Post 540, which is basically saying "I agree with these two people even though I'm not specifying what I'm agreeing with". This looks like a "wagon-solidifier vote", and near a deadline that usually means death.

6.)
Post 541 by OTM I'm noting for this: "Nanook (been getting pro-town vibes from him lately, so he is almost off the list)". My mind is saying that OTM takes a different stance on this later – if I find it I'll quote it when I get to it. If not feel free to ignore this.

7.)
Post 625 by Superstring91 is saying a whole lot of nothing. Speculating on what scum would/should claim while the town is mass-claiming also seems like a dunderheaded thing to do.

8.)
Right-o, OTM says he suspects Nanook in Post 650, a different tune than in Post 541. Can I have an explanation for this change? Did you only think Nanook was scummy after MBL turned out to be town? [In fact, OTM votes Nanook in 660]. Preferably I'd like to see the thought process that occurred between these two posts.

---

I'm most suspicious of {gorkcat, Superstring91}, and I think there a reasonable number of connections which indicate they are fair candidates to both being in the same scum-group (such that I doubt either is SK).

Vote: gorkcat
. I will be more than happy to lynch
either
gorkcat
or
Superstring91, however, but of the two I think gorkcat has a better shot of coming up scum. His posts – although he seems to deny it – have a tendency of
insinuating
somebody is scum without saying so. Most recently, we have such gems as "just looking to see if it was a slip", "why'd you duck pj's question, OTM?", and "OTM has jumped quite a bit of late", which seems a hypocritical way to express suspicion coming from the person who had a like a series of 4 votes and unvotes (from thorgot to Sweenytodd to InHimShallIBe to thorgot) all in succession during mid-D1. I will probably go into more detail later when I have more time.
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Post Post #792 (isolation #15) » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:45 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

I've had to move, pack, unpack, and start things for school, and I just read and posted in another game and I'm too tired to do so in this game. I expect to be busy tomorrow as well (Mock Trial starts, bleah), so I should hopefully be back to speed by Wednesday. Apologies about the lack of advance warning, I was hoping school wouldn't be taking such a large chink of my time so soon.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #16) » Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:46 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Afterthought: Has SSF read the game yet? I've read it twice by this time, so he shouldn't have had had any trouble reading it once through by now.
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Post Post #821 (isolation #17) » Thu Aug 23, 2007 7:39 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

School's been busier than I expected. I will note, however, that I voted gorkcat quite a while ago, so he should technically be at three votes. For safety's sake, however, I will formally
Unvote: Gorkcat
so there isn't a hammer with TSQ magically counting my presently uncounted vote before we're through with discussion.
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Post Post #838 (isolation #18) » Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:04 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

*posting in-between classes*

SSF, just set aside a single freaking real-life day for this
one
game. It is
not
that difficult to read through this game - it takes two to three hours to read it in detail, and you've been in the game for about 18 real-life days now - bordering on three weeks.

I'm also getting a vague impression that OTM and Gorkcat are playing "hot potato" with SSF; they keep tossing him around as each others' scum-partner, but they are each voting each other and
not
SSF. This is being noted because it lessens the likelihood that OTM and Gorkcat are scum together - if that were the case, it would make much more sense for them to vote for SSF, the "common" suspicion from each of them.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #19) » Thu Aug 30, 2007 3:45 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

SSF, have you read my last post?
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Post Post #859 (isolation #20) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 5:38 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

somestrangeflea wrote:
PJ wrote:SSF, just set aside a single freaking real-life day for this one game. It is not that difficult to read through this game - it takes two to three hours to read it in detail, and you've been in the game for about 18 real-life days now - bordering on three weeks.
Done, a number of weeks ago.

Don't like your patronizing attitude much.
And I don't like your lack of contributions much. From the looks of your posts, it certainly does not appear as if you have actually read the game - especially since you just recently "forgot" about the whole 3-nightkillers thing, which is probably the most crucial aspect of the entire game, and is the one thing everybody
should
remember. Your posts have been mostly responding to the latest things in the thread, without really recognizing that there was an entire Day One to go off of.

Pretty much your only comment about Day One was along the lines of "Wow, SS's really screwed me over". I'm not sure how I'm supposed to believe you've read the thread
a couple weeks ago
when that's your only commentary. Furthermore, the fact that your response to allegations against SSF is "well, I can't defend what SSF did" is scummier than townie - townspeople are much more likely to actually defend their predecessor on what points that they can, whereas scum are much more likely to try to ask for people to judge them from a clean slate.

We are missing some people, and I don't think we can move forward very effectively with them being gone from the thread.
Mod
, can we get prods on kilmenator and Pie_is_good?
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Post Post #864 (isolation #21) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 9:28 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

*posting in-between classes*

I'm going to make a general commentary, and for an example, I will specifically use OTM. OTM has claimed that he thinks I am town, that he is town, and now that he is getting town vibes from SSF. Since Kilmenator is necessarily town, then it follows that OTM would think the following:

{gorkcat, Dasquian, Pie, pete d} are
all
scum, unless he believes we're dealing with 3 total scum instead of 4 total scum. Basically, everybody is going to assume that themself and Kilmenator are scum, which allows at most 2-3 other people to be town, and the rest to necessarily be scum. If you don't think your left-over grouping is accurate, then you need to rethink who you think is town. I myself am only semi-"comfortable" with a couple people by this point, but in the sense that although I don't think they are the correct people to lynch
today
, they may be correct to lynch
tomorrow
. I think SSF and gorkcat are two players in particular who continually end up in my "leftovers" feeling, and neither of them have really done anything to make me think otherwise. I'm mostly holding off my vote because I do not want to risk the chance for a mafia group of 3 to quicklynch a SK, which would pretty much auto-lose this game for the town.
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Post Post #865 (isolation #22) » Fri Aug 31, 2007 9:30 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

PJ wrote:Basically, everybody is going to assume that themself and Kilmenator are
town
, which allows at most 2-3 other people to be town, and the rest to necessarily be scum.
Fixed.
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Post Post #881 (isolation #23) » Tue Sep 04, 2007 4:30 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

gorkcat wrote:Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.
I'll have to reread the latest happening to see if these two grouping indeed fall on "lines that have been drawn" (as Dasquain suggests), but this appears to me to be rather ingenuous. For me, is
bordering
on a false dilemma (even though it is clearly not so simple). It appears to group the town into two particular things, and then undermining one, and therefore concluding the second to be true.

To me, it is reading along the lines of the following:
Parallel Thought Process wrote:The three shiniest objects in my possession are either:

->
a.
A coin, a knife, and a mirror; or
->
b.
A key, a paper-clip, and a button

However, I don't think my key or my button is very shiny, so I think
a.
is probably my three shiniest objects.
The problem, of course, being that there is no reason why the paper-clip should not be included in
a
or part of another option entirely - the groups look almost arbitrarily made for the purpose of keeping the unmentioned object in group
b
(in this case, pete d) out of the other grouping. Also, for a grouping like this ("most likely to be scum"), it makes
much
more sense for there to actually me some
overlapping
between two options, instead of sticking people in groups
first
without first assessing who you think is
most likely to be scum
. To compare to the "shiny" analogy, you would think somebody talking about their three most shiny objects would have a list like the following:
Three Most Shiny Objects Options wrote:I am quite sure that my Mirror is - at the very least - in my top three shiniest objects. I do not think my key or my button is very shiny, though. So I think my top three shiniest objects are:

->
a.
A mirror, a coin, and a knife; or
->
b.
A mirror, a coin, and a paperclip; or
->
c.
A mirror, a knife, and a paperclip
^ This to me is much more likely town thought process than the first example. I still think either gorkcat or SSF are the way to go today.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #24) » Tue Sep 04, 2007 4:49 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

gorkcat wrote:From my gut, there are two likely scum groups:

Das, PJ and pete or flea, OTM and pie. Yes, the second has a dash of OMGUS. Whatever. They're not in order of likelihood, and
both have a flex spot in them I could swap with another person.


I think Das and PJ have been good townies. PJ especially put in a load of work reading up for us.
That makes me lean towards my second grouping and maintain lynching flea is a good idea.
To respond to the comment I expect somebody to make (because I have time to respond to it now, but I can't say the same for the near future):

Yes
, I did notice the comment I high-lighted in blue.
But
given his next (purple) high-lighted statement, it seems to contradict his willingness to swap people in and out (but instead stick to one grouping). In particular, I would like see who he swaps out for who, what groupings that leaves him, and which of those groupings he then finds to be most likely. This is mostly being done to see who (if anybody) overlaps in gorkcat's lists.
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Post Post #885 (isolation #25) » Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:03 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

{Non-Game related}

To be fair, a true false dilemma is often going to be in the form of:
False Dilemma wrote:I either agree with me, or you are a complete idiot. You do not agree with me, so I must conclude you are an idiot.
This of course leaves out options such as "You do not agree with me but you are not an idiot", "I am an idiot and to agree with me is to be an idiot", "You have not given an opinion, so I although you may 'not agree with me' right now there is a chance you will", and so on. There isn't a good reason to exclude these unless you explain them.

{Game related}

Essentially, I wanted reasoning for why you put particular people in particular groups, because to me the groupings looked arbitrarily made for the purpose of discrediting one to affirm the other, without explaining why the other options are not feasible to you. I'll accept your explanation for now, but there's a good chance I will poke at you to explain it more for me so I can understand your thinking.
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Post Post #886 (isolation #26) » Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:05 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

EBWOP:
Fixed False Dilemma wrote:
I
You
either agree with me, or you are a complete idiot. You do not agree with me, so I must conclude you are an idiot.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #27) » Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:08 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

*waves to SSF*

Hai. ^_^

I see you browsing Little Italy. If you could, would you mind saying something - preferably in the form of an opinion of who/what you think is scummy and why, with perhaps some comments to show you have read through all of Day One?
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Post Post #920 (isolation #28) » Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:08 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Posting from work in the Philo. Dept., and I think I definitely need to read these last few pages over again this weekend. I'm feeling there are a
lot
of undercurrents going on - there is likely a little bit of busing, a little of opportunism, a little bit of genuine attacking, and a little bit of retributivism. It's difficult to tell who might be grouped together, and who might just be happening to have similar opinions (or claimed opinions).

Question for OTM, however: if gorkcat is town, what does that do to your opinion of Pie? And then what does it do to your opinion of me?
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Post Post #961 (isolation #29) » Sun Sep 16, 2007 7:44 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Okay – everybody should be caught up now. And I just noticed Day Two has lasted over three months – we seriously need to get a move on. I just reread pages 30-39; I decided I'm going to choose between voting SSF and gorkcat; I seriously do not see a scenario where both of them are town (since this would mean town includes CPE, myself, gorkcat, and SSF; and therefore scum would be Dasquain, OTM, pete d, and Pie, which is grouping I cannot really see
whatsoever
). Therefore, I think
at least
one of them is scum. In addition, I have found each of them individually scummy while I did my initial reads of the game, so with any luck they're both scum and I'm agonizing myself over nothing.

There approximately two players (besides CPE) who I am
leaning
town on, and neither of them are SSF or gorkcat. I don't think it's worthwhile to paint targets on people's backs at this point, however (even though my feelings are probably pretty obvious from reading my posts).

My own Post 766 looks pretty spot-on after reading it now. I'm interested that gorkcat voted for SSF a few posts afterwards (in Post 770), then goes to vote for OTM and when that goes nowhere back to SSF. This slightly suggests that gorkcat/OTM are not scum together (since OTM seemed to be an attempt "shift" wagons more than distancing).

I think the most telling posts are SSF's responses to me and Dasquain in Post 856, Post 862, Post 889, Post 891, Post 894. He is way to free to call things "false dilemmas" or a "misrepresentation" (FTW!). All of his comments about Day One pretty much don't pertain to anything that matters (i.e. deciding who to lynch today). He uses "apathy" as an explanation for not posting. I also think he's been avoiding the thread in general, and in particular, avoiding taking firm stances (so that he cannot be called out on them, I would suppose).

Vote: somethingstrangeflea
. I'll change my vote back to gorkcat if necessary (there's really nothing making me think he is town), but I think I prefer the SSF lynch out of the two of them.

Also, I think now is a good time to reiterate:

Scums
, you should try to kill other scum tonight, or you will surely lose. Mafia can't keep SK alive, and SK can't keep mafia alive. Same diff. if there are two Mafias; if Mafia-A gets knocked down to 1 player against Mafia-B consisting of 2 players, you're a goner either by lynch, nightkill, or endgaming.
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Post Post #1007 (isolation #30) » Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:38 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Okay, nobody vote quickly - it's pretty much assured we're in LyLo. I'll reread the game soon to find out who pete's partners are.
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Post Post #1008 (isolation #31) » Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:33 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Hmm. I'll get to that read later. I admit I need to rethink this game a bit, since I had not really pegged Dasquain as scum whatsoever (he was the person I thought
most
likely to be town besides CPE, since I've pretty much been in agreement with him on many issues throughout the game). I'm still a bit surprised he was killed at all - it
almost
suggests that the mafia was trying to kill town, which
really
does not make any theoretical sense, since after all, if they kill the SK and the SK kills town, the mafia wins. Besides, if the mafia wanted to kill town, they would just kill CPE.

So basically, I'm gonna try to read the game from a perspective where the mafia would somehow have guessed that Dasquain was scum.
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Post Post #1015 (isolation #32) » Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:38 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

OTM, please point me to the last game you've seen with 2 Mafia v 1 SK v 9 town? I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say there are two Mafia left right now.
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #33) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:01 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Don't have time for the reread yet. But I am curious about a few things:

1.)
gorkcat, why did you pseudovote for me over Pie if we are both "equivalent" in your mind?

2.)
gorkcat, if you "know" you are town, why are you not more adamant about your opinion that pete d was trying to connect you to him (i.e. your post reads more like a deflection than would "he was probably setting me up for a lynch later", which I would
expect
a townsperson in your position to answer with)?

3.)
OTM, yesterday you continually 'went' after pete d, but I don't think you actually voted for him; I think distancing from
known
scum is a good deal worse than your "distancing" you are trying to display between gorkcat and I; I switched votes because the gorkcat wagon
was not going anywhere
, and I thought SSF was equally scummy. Feel free to reread that section of Day Two if you don't believe me.

I'm actually wondering about an OTM / pie pairing; the game makes a good deal of sense that way (
and
it explains OTM's actions at the end of Day Two). After SSF is lynched, OTM wants to make sure the SK does not hit one of his partners; so what does he do? He implores the SK to kill gorkcat.

In addition, that's one of the few pairings where I can understand killing Dasquain. If gorkcat ends up being the SK, they can lynch him Day Three. That leaves them to decide between me and Dasquain as to being the SK. I have not read Dasquain's posts exceedingly closely, but it may be that Dasquain pushed the agenda of a SK being present so much that it tipped off the mafia as to his alignment.

Basically, there is no reason to have killed Dasquain
unless
the mafia thought he was a SK.

No pseudovoting from me until after I have read the game, because I can see just about any pairing from the three {OTM, pie, gorkcat} of you. About the only pairing I sincerely doubt is the case is {OTM + gorkcat}, unless they have done some phenomenal distancing.
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Post Post #1026 (isolation #34) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 5:37 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

gorkcat wrote:1) Because OTM thinks you are scum. I simply went for the common suspect between us.
FoS: gorkcat
.

Let's see if anybody can see what
I
see wrong with this statement.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1031 (isolation #35) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:06 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pretty sure I'm in the right here, OTM. After I realized my folly about kilmenator, I reread the game and decide to vote gorkcat in Post 766. I point out things you (OTM) agreed with but did not mention earlier. This was on August 15.

Immediately afterwards, the SSF wagon is spurred (i.e. people vote AWAY from gorkcat, despite the fact that I just attacked him). These votes are found:

1.) gorkcat in Post 770
2.) pete d in Post 779
3.) OTM in Post 772

So in actuality, when
I
pursued gorkcat, gorkcat and pete d (who turned out to be scum) immediately shift attention to SSF.

[[[And actually, SSF was
supposed
to be lynched right here, because Dasquain was already voting for Superstring (who
is
SSF). I didn't even notice this until now. Found in Post 788 (this vote count is also missing my vote for gorkcat).]]]

In Post 789 you switch to gorkcat, after the momentum was going for SSF.

I knew I was going to be busy, so I unvoted later in Post 821; it sucks being away only to find out somebody has been lynched while you're gone. During the interim, OTM and gorkcat quibble with each other, and I continually ask for SSF to read the game. I hold off from voting since kilmenator was constantly absent. After CPE replaces, I vote in Post 961, on September 17. I had already seen the town's initial reaction to the gorkcat vote (which was to vote SSF), and I was
more than willing
to vote for gorkcat; I thought
both
were likely to be scum at the time, whether they were part of the same scum-group or not. This was pretty explicit. CPE then waltzes in and hammers, which is not something I can exactly anticipate (especially seeing as SSF had been at lynch -1 for forever and a day and nothing ever happened with that for over a month). Had the town's reaction to my initial gorkcat vote been to pursue him
instead of switching to SSF
, then we would be in a better position today. In fact, pete d's reaction makes it seem pretty evident that gorkcat is probably his partner (a good time to deflect attention away with a vote, certainly).

I would say in general, the gorkcat wagon never seemed to be going places, but the SSF wagon was in light of the reaction to when I was pursuing him. The SSF-wagon only arose from his constant unhelpfulness and appearance of not having read the game - it certainly was not something planned on.

-> And gorkcat, my question is largely: why did you not pseudovote
both
Pie and me, but instead chose to pseudovote
solely
me? Seeing as you ranked me lower in scumminess yesterday and have given no reasons to rank me higher today, it looks like you want to say you're "suspicious" of Pie without actually having to vote him or present a tangible pseudovote against him.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1032 (isolation #36) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:08 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

The third vote on SSF should be:

3.) OTM in Post 782 (not 772)
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1035 (isolation #37) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:28 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Read my Post 961 (where I voted) again. In it, you will see:
PJ, Post 961 wrote: decided I'm going to choose between voting SSF and gorkcat; I seriously do not see a scenario where both of them are town (since this would mean town includes CPE, myself, gorkcat, and SSF; and therefore scum would be Dasquain, OTM, pete d, and Pie, which is grouping I cannot really see whatsoever). Therefore, I think at least one of them is scum. In addition, I have found each of them individually scummy while I did my initial reads of the game, so with any luck they're both scum and I'm agonizing myself over nothing.

...

Vote: somethingstrangeflea.
I'll change my vote back to gorkcat if necessary (there's really nothing making me think he is town), but I think I prefer the SSF lynch out of the two of them.
*
*Emphasis added

I preferred the SSF lynch due to SSF's most recent play - which was to be completely useless and to vote for somebody I thought was town (he had voted for Dasquain recently), and I go into more detail there (such as him calling everything mentioned against him a 'false dilemma', or a misrepresentation, etc when those were
not
the case).

I did not "think he was a SK", however; I just figured he was scum, and SSF seemed reasonably connected to a few people (Pie, gorkcat, and you).
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1036 (isolation #38) » Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:46 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Gah. Well, unless you're invisible, you seem to have left. I actually would have liked to have a one-on-one session here, but I just got a phone call about Mock Trial and I'll be busy the rest of the night (and tomorrow won't be a good day either, I have two exams).

I am going to use a WIFOM argument (no shyness about it from me), but only because it seems so totally obvious to
me
that I am not scum (and although I suppose I should expect to draw an accusation or two in LyLo, that doesn't mean I have to be pleased with it), and I don't see anybody else really bothering to consider things from
my
perspective and would
necessarily
have to be true if I were scum.

I just cannot
fathom
being mafia and even
allowing
for my partners to agree to a Dasquain kill: it seems like such a stupid thing to do from my position. Not only did I think Dasquain was town, but
Dasquain also thought I was town
, so it would - without a doubt - have been in my best interests to
leave him alive
and kill somebody I
could actually see being scum
. Depending on my hypothetical scum-partners, all of the choices seem incredibly obvious.

-> With Pie + pete d, I would kill gork or OTM
-> With gork + pete d, I would kill Pie or OTM (he would probably look like a SK from there)
-> With OTM + pete d, I would kill Pie (since OTM directed SK to killing gork, making that target unnecessary and an "easy lynch" if gorkcat is SK himself)

There is really no scum-pairing I can even see where I would
consider
killing Dasquain. In all cases,
if
I was of a mind to kill a townsperson, I would have killed CPE, the confirmed innocent.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1042 (isolation #39) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 3:55 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

*tired from waking up early*

I had not completely excluded the possibility of {OTM + gorkcat}, Pie. One of the last mini games I played (that being Mini 424 playing as Javert), I had
too quickly
decided two players could not be scum together... and I turned out to be
wrong
. As such (and as I said in
this
game), I was not going to vote or come to a concrete conclusion or even pseudovote until after I had
reread the game
. Nice of you to notice that.

The lack of OTM/gorkcat hammering me just now (which they probably could have arranged, having posted so closely to each other just now), however,
does
suggest that I was correct that {OTM + gorkcat} is not the case. Which leaves one of the two pairings:

1.) Pie + OTM
2.) Pie + gorkcat

... both of which clearly include Pie. As such,
Vote: Pie_is_good
. Right now I'm leaning towards gorkcat being the partner, specifically because he pseudovoted he voted for
me
instead of Pie, without having given any explanation for that whatsoever (and despite giving the impression that the two of us have an equal chance of being scum). It is striking me as a distancing move while trying to give him an excuse to vote for me over voting for Pie.

His reasoning that "OTM and I share a common suspect" is a
complete cop-out
. Think about this way:

Suppose gorkcat is scum (and if that were the case, it seems very likely that OTM is town). His job today is to lynch
one
last townie. And to do that, he only needs
one
townsperson to vote with him. Hence, by pseudovoting the
"common suspect"
from a townsperson, he is guaranteeing himself that necessary townie vote.

Now suppose gorkcat is town. In that case, he is basing his entire conclusion on the presupposition that OTM is also town. And if that were the case, he should be perfectly willing to actually argue and present a case against Pie (and defend himself in the process).
OTM wrote:PJ - OK, thanks for posting the reference, but I really can't take you at your word at this point. Sure, you said you'd be willing to switch your vote back to Gorckat, but you didn't so that doesn't mean a whole lot.
I've had these types of arguments more than I care to be in them. If I say I would switch to somebody, then I would. There is no good reason to
refuse
switching votes, and the very statement itself means that I
will
if I am asked to. Or else it would be rather stupid to make the statement in the first place.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1046 (isolation #40) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:10 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

gorckat wrote:pj- as town, my job today is to lynch
one scum.
gorkcat - as scum, your job today is to lynch
one town
. I'm town. So you're not helping yourself with that argument.

I need to study for my two exams, so no more replies from me until later in the day.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1047 (isolation #41) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:22 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Damnit, one more post, something just occurred to me.

FoS: gorkcat
. Just realized exactly how convenient it is for you to have "not suspected" OTM. I can guarantee had the voting been between {gorckat v OTM}, then gorckat would be the person lynched. As such, he had to put himself in direct opposition of another player who is town; and given that Pie would be his partner, his only choice would be
me
(hence why he pseudovoted me over Pie).

Think that solves it. Pie + gorckat. Once again (the irony), I am more than willing to vote either, but Pie (given the voting) is statistically more likely to be scum from my position, so
that
is where my vote will stay unless it is necessary for me to switch.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1051 (isolation #42) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:13 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Well, now it's almost completely safe to throw out a {gork + OTM} pairing. Very comfy with my Pie vote.
gorckat wrote:I'd really like pie and pj to give e some meat why they can't be partners together.
If you think we're both scum together, you should be comfortable voting for either of us. It's a bit difficult to "defend" against a relationship that does not exist, but I would say the fact we're currently
voting each other
is a strong indicator.

Also, if we were scum together the two of us could win right now by quicklynching you, which you don't seem overly concerned about at the moment.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1055 (isolation #43) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:48 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Posting to show that {Pie + PJ} is not possible (i.e. we could quicklynch gork).

Second thoughts from CPE.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1056 (isolation #44) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:51 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pie wrote:Did "OTM and Gorc probably aren't scum together, which would narrow the decision down to me and Pie, only I'm not going to tell the town that so I can reread first" cross your mind, or did that not cross your mind at all?
Response:
PJ wrote:
I had not completely excluded the possibility of {OTM + gorkcat}, Pie.
One of the last mini games I played (that being Mini 424 playing as Javert), I had too quickly decided two players could not be scum together... and I turned out to be wrong. As such (and as I said in this game), I was not going to vote or come to a concrete conclusion or even pseudovote until after I had reread the game. Nice of you to notice that.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1057 (isolation #45) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:16 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Actually, seems like we're at a standstill. Objectively:

Gorckat

1.)
Knows {Pie + PJ} cannot be scum
2.)
Therefore {OTM + Pie} or {OTM + PJ} is scum
3.)
Therefore vote OTM

OTM

1.)
Knows {Pie + PJ} cannot be scum
2.)
Therefore {Gorc + Pie} or {Gorc + PJ} is scum
3.)
Therefore vote Gorc

Pie

1.)
Knows {OTM + Gorc} cannot be scum
2.)
Therefore {OTM + PJ} or {Gorc + PJ} is scum
3.)
Therefore vote PJ

PJ

1.)
Knows {OTM + Gorc} cannot be scum
2.)
Therefore {OTM + Pie} or {Gorc + Pie} is scum
3.)
Therefore vote Pie

---

I suggest we lynch whoever CPE votes for.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #46) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:29 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

*waves*
Pie_is_good wrote:PJ, that doesn't directly answer my question. The game seemed to suggest OTM/Gorc as Not Partners. Did the idea that
assuming the two of them weren't partners, we would be at each other's throats
cross your mind at any point?
It does answer your question.
Yes
it occurred to me,
but
I was not going to base anything off of that until after
I had reread the game
. For all I knew I would come back thinking they were, in fact, distancing after I had done a closer read. Hence why I did not vote or pseudovote.

Willing to hammer, but I don't think we should end the day until CPE is ready (in case he wants to ask questions or elaborate on his opinions).
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1065 (isolation #47) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:39 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

PPE:

Ah, I was just about to ask why you favored the OTM vote over the Pie vote if me not hammering you necessitated I am not scum with either of them.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1067 (isolation #48) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:41 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

And OTM is logged on-line. Now to see what happens...
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #49) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:43 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Well, the solves that. {Pie + gorckat} it is. I have absolutely no preference on which we lynch, but nothing doin' until we hear back from CPE.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1075 (isolation #50) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:50 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Hi. Have you not seen where I am waiting for CPE? Pretty sure I've said that at least twice by now. He's a goner tonight, and he's our confirmed innocent. I'd say ending the day without him giving us the green light is pretty stupid.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1077 (isolation #51) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:51 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

And actually, {Pie + OTM} is still possible. I had thought OTM had the possibility to hammer right there, but he did not.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1080 (isolation #52) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:02 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Off the Mark wrote:
petroleumjelly wrote:Hi. Have you not seen where I am waiting for CPE? Pretty sure I've said that at least twice by now. He's a goner tonight, and he's our confirmed innocent. I'd say ending the day without him giving us the green light is pretty stupid.
How convenient. You think he's changed his mind? He is voting for gorckat you know.
It has nothing to do with getting him to change his mind. I'm mostly waiting to see if he'll take a stand on {me v Pie}.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #53) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:05 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

No comments on Southpaw, OTM? You looked at the people preceding me, why not Pie?
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1084 (isolation #54) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:07 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

OTM wrote:I didn't say anything about "getting him to change his mind". Now why would you assume that? You just slipped up, big time.
Hunh, lemme think.
OTM wrote:How convenient.
You think he's changed his mind?
He is voting for gorckat you know.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #55) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:12 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

When I read your post, it reads roughly as:

"Do you think CPE is going to be changing his vote?", and since you've sorta been
accusing me of being scum
, that has the implication of "Do you think you've convinced CPE to change his vote?".

See, when I play mafia, I tend to do this strange thing of reading between the lines. The
tone
of a post is often just as informative as the
surface wording
of the post. Your
tone
adds to the accusatory nature of your post, which is what
I
was responding to.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #56) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:16 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Are you implying scum would not kill a confirmed innocent (with your "help scum know who to nightkill")?

Do you have any reason to
not
hear what the confirmed innocent has to say when it costs nothing to do so?
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1091 (isolation #57) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:19 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

But to more directly answer your question (instead of asking you a question in response), it could easily be the case that CPE will present reasoning which would not have otherwise been considered by a townsperson making a decision tomorrow; being able to look at the same interactions under different lights is only going to
help
make a decision tomorrow. There is no point in saying "well, he was town, and now he's dead, so there's no point in reading his posts" because at the very least you
know
that person is town and you
know
the thought-process is legit. In addition, CPE can choose to extend the day as he wishes; he may be able to incite more reactions to help obviate scum.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #58) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:21 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Then tell me the "tone" you were implying. Last I checked, you have been calling me scum with gorckat. How
else
should I be reading your post?
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1095 (isolation #59) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:28 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Uh. I am having trouble processing that in the brain.

Enlighten me as to
why
I would be "using CPE's innocent status as a
convenient excuse
not to vote gorkcat" when I have already agreed that whoever CPE votes for ought to be lynched? What good does not voting him do me? What is even "convenient" about it?
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1097 (isolation #60) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:28 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

OH GOD DAMMIT.


So {Pie + OTM}. I freaking
hate
replacing. OTM is like my unlucky star.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1098 (isolation #61) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:30 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

*sigh*

So what made you guys kill Dasquain?
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1101 (isolation #62) » Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:32 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Don't be a snot. I hate people who try to act all "clever" after they hammer somebody by acting all innocent.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1106 (isolation #63) » Fri Oct 05, 2007 6:18 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

*checks thread*

Hot damn, I had thought we lost. One last chance, then.

Vote: Pie_is_good
.

Figures I would be put up against lurkerscum in the end. I will clearly have to read through the thread and point out things which will show that Pie is scum. Not a fun prospect, since Pie doesn't have a whole lot to go off of... I will try to find time this weekend to get to that.

CPE, I swear to all that is holy and good that if you are the person responsible for lynching me as town for the first time in mafiascum history... I'm not sure what I will do, but I can promise it won't be good. :cry:
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Post Post #1110 (isolation #64) » Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:05 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Didn't have much time today (busy with school). I'm through rereading the first 10 pages; if I keep at this pace, I should have a post in about four days or less making the case to show you why Pie is scum.
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Post Post #1112 (isolation #65) » Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:55 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Pie_is_good wrote:Will try and put something up this weekend.
QFT. This week is kicking my ass.
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Post Post #1115 (isolation #66) » Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:30 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Reasons why Pie [Southpaw] and pete d are scum. Some portions high-lighted. I
highly
encourage you to read the posts I link to, else this is all for naught. I have condensed my points down to THREE THINGS (even though I had other things marked, I've been busy and these are the running themes which should be clear when you take the time to reread the game):

1.) Constant separation of votes between Southpaw/Pie and pete d.


It should be pretty clear that when there is a game with a 2-person scumgroup, it is more likely the scum will try to "distance" themselves without actually having to
argue
between each other. This is because with so few members in a scum-team, they simply cannot afford to lose their partner (especially when they are probably under the impression that there is a SK or another mafia team lurking in the shadows ready to finish them off in the night). In order to reduce a connection, then, they are very prone to
voting for different people
when bandwagons are in effect.

This makes sense on other levels as well; since a 2-person scum-group pretty much cannot afford to bus each other, they have to keep pressure on a townsperson for one day while giving themselves a foothold to push on somebody
else
the next day. In other words, they need to always keep a lynch "in the works" that is somebody besides themselves. Simply looking at TSQ's vote-counts should make this pretty apparent. The only real "anomaly" is when they both try to lynch the claimed Doctor.

Most notably is that Pie consistently went after Dodgy/CES and gorckat, and pete d consistently went after OTM and SSF.

2.) Phobic avoidance of mentioning pete d.


Southpaw never once says the name pete d – the most he does is quote somebody who was responding to pete d (so he himself was not responding to pete d in any manner whatsoever).

Once Pie replaces, he takes up the same schtick. Reading through Pie's posts, it really seems as if he is almost
phobic
of mentioning pete d, since he constantly walks around the subject.

Early in the game, Pie said he was going to "analyze everybody" in the game. He only follows through on a very small portion in Post 318... which of course does not say anything of pete d. He never gets around to finishing this.

He mentions him exactly twice in any sort of context. Once in Post 752 where he uses a throwaway FoS (coupled with a FoS on another player, which dilutes whatever effect it may have otherwise had), and the second time in Post 951, which wasn't so much a comment about pete d , but rather including him in a list (not a list of suspicions).

Here is a nice table of how many times Pie has mentioned each player by name (while they were still alive), not including words inside of quotes:

Died After One Day

a.)
Sweenytodd/InHimShallIBe: [0] + [16] = 16
b.)
dom:inc/IH: [4] + [2] = 6
c.)
Dodgy/CES/MBL: [35] + [who cares] = 35+
d.)
The Fonz: [11] = 11

Died After Two Days

e.)
SS91/SSF: [1] + [4] = 5
f.)
Dasquain: [6] = 6
g.)
pete d: [2] = 2


Died After Three Days:

h.)
gorckat: [38] = 38
i.)
thorgot/OTM: [1] + [20] = 21

Still alive (only including comments prior to today):

j.)
SGH/Kilm/CPE: [0] + [6] + [2] = 8
k.)
Eletriar/Nanook/PJ: [0] + [5] + [13] = 18

... this should make it
pretty damned clear
Pie was picking and choosing who he talked about. Lowest on the totem pole in terms of conversation was pretty clearly pete d. Of course, some of these numbers are deceiving; Pie had a good deal of discussion with some people (such as Dasquain) without saying his name, whereas he has
no conversation
with pete d.

3.) Conversely, pete d took an opposite strategy; he mentioned Southpaw/Pie just a few times, but (very importantly) only in the context of ASKING WHY PEOPLE WERE VOTING FOR SOUTHPAW/PIE
.

This is like
mega
-scum-partner strategy. They try to make you
doubt
the case on their partner by having you explain it, or to get somebody to put somebody lower on a list – and in the case somebody
can
make a good case, the fact that they showed "interest" in it makes it look like they were just being innocently inquisitive.

When Southpaw gets the early wagon on him, pete d suddenly becomes
more active than he has been throughout the rest of the game
, and all for the purpose of getting people to change directions away from Southpaw. Check out Post 33, Post 35, Post 38, and Post 56.
All of them have the hidden agenda of getting people to unvote Southpaw (Pie).


When Pie replaced in, pete d suddenly sit the fence on him. In Post 656 where he talks about his "suspicions", although he has a paragraph about Pie, it
expresses absolutely no opinion on Pie
(granted, he does this for other people as well, but he never gives on opinion on Pie the whole game that I can see). In Post 703, pete d expresses 'suspicion' of the people voting gorckat, which includes Pie and OTM in his post... of those two players, he puts suspicion on OTM and
not
Pie with an FoS.

THE BIGGEST INDICATOR
is this demure little post: Post 957. How quaint! At a time where the scum are clearly in the good (while he knows both he and Pie are safe, since SSF and gorckat are being run up), he pops into basically say: "gee golly, how can you be suspicious of
Pie
? Why isn't he
neutral
?" He is essentially
reverting back to indirectly defending Pie, just as he did for Southpaw, by getting people to doubt their cases
.

This
brings everything full-circle, and makes the connection
crystal
clear.
He defends Southpaw early when is afraid he will lose his partner to a senseless bandwagon; and just as the game is within his reach, he defends Pie
again
because he knows that if both he and his partner can survive the night, they will pretty much win.


~~~~~

I'll answer any questions/comments, with the caveat that I am very busy and may take a while to get to them.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1117 (isolation #67) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:19 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

*bump past locked threads*
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Post Post #1121 (isolation #68) » Fri Oct 19, 2007 8:40 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

*yawn* Just got home from a friend's house, rather tired. But:

1.)
OTM was only "suspicious" of me in that he
thought I was connected with gorckat because I was not voting for him
. gorckat turned up town, so it is safe to say his reasoning would have been thrown completely out the window.

Conversely,
Pie ended the day by hammering gorckat without an explanation until today
. And it's pretty obvious OTM wouldn't have exactly skimmed over that teensy fact.

I'm not saying I completely
understand
why Pie killed OTM. It's not really my job to explain it, because regardless
it happened
, and now we're dealing with it. Maybe Pie thought it would be easier to get
me
lynched than OTM (since he would
have
to lynch one of us in order to win) on the basis that nobody has ever really suspected OTM. But I'm not going to bother going down this path much further.

2.)
My point one is indeed WIFOM, but as Pie
points out in his first paragraph
WIFOM is still relevant. Check finished games - scum tend to diversify their votes until they are forced to solidify. Voting the same person draws a "connection", so just about any respectable scum-group you find is going to have purposeful spreading of votes.

3.)
My table
does
lead to the conclusion: the fact is, both Pie and his predecessor
never
talked with or about pete d. I doubt any other player who lived even up to yesterday has had
that
big of a "blind spot".

There is only so much "blindness" permitted in mafia before it is clearly
more than a coincidence.


4.)
Pie has not addressed the final point; read over pete d's posts for yourself, and decide if you think pete d was "trying to look town" or if he was trying to
subtly get people unvote his ONLY PARTNER
. I have played in two mountainous games to date (Calvin and Hobbes + Most Mountainousest) and I can tell you from experience that when there is a scum-group of 2, they
do not want their partner dead if they can do anything to stop it
. The same held true in this game between Pie/Southpaw and pete d.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
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Post Post #1124 (isolation #69) » Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:04 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

I think it would have been funnier if CPE had voted for "PIJ". :wink:

But eh, with my luck CPE is a full vig or a 2-Shot vig or a SK who is UNNK so long as he doesn't kill, or has some way so his vote doesn't count yet, and therefore me making this post is incredibly silly (which it technically is, but *shrug*).

Anyhow, ya, this game was pretty self-explanatory. My first few posts would have been exactly the same if I were town (or exceedingly close to them), because my first thought on seeing a 1-Shot Vig claim killing a claimed Doc on Night One was "ding ding ding, scum, kill it!". I actually read the thread becoming more and more convinced that kilmenator was scum, and that I needed to lynch her dead. At least until the mass-claim D2 (which actually helped the town in this case, though that does not mean I would advocate it in the future).

Eletriar/Nanook was my top suspect besides kilmenator when reading the game. Luckily people did not really read back on the game very much, or force me to answer for their actions. My biggest fear was CPE reading the game the whole way through on he final day, because I'm pretty sure had he done that I could not have covered up for Nanoon and Co.'s scumminess.

The Dasquain kill was largely because I thought he was going to be part of a 2-man mafia group (I could see him being paired with a good amount of people) -- so yes, when I constantly called him town during the day it was largely because I was thinking about killing him at night and didn't want to waste my breath. I was obviously under the impression the game was {2 mafia v 2 mafia}, and this is actually a point against me - in the future, when it turns out a mafia group is of a specific size, it is probably worth checking everybody's posts to see who constantly left that option open as a viability. I'm fairly sure both pete d and I went out of our way to say "2 mafia groups", which is exceedingly rare. If I was town I am fairly sure I would have
actually
been advocating "3 mafia v 1 SK" the whole time. Bad play there on my part.

Day Three I was largely trying to see if I could set myself up for an endgame situation - ideally, I wanted to lynch Pie, kill CPE, and then lynch gorckat on the final day. It became clear that was not going to happen, so I admittedly did try to see what direction CPE was leaning in terms of {OTM v PJ v Pie} so I would have a more informed nightkill choice (kudos for catching me on that, OTM). In the end, I figured OTM was going to be too solidified against me even though I was not gorckat's partner, so he had to go (since I was fairly sure Pie was not suspicious of OTM).

Funny note: when I was writing up my case against Pie, for whatever reason, I originally thought he had replaced thorgot. I came
seconds
away to submitting that case (which had
five
main points, each of them
much
more compelling than the case for Southpaw/Pie) before I realized my folly and had to throw the whole thing out. In particular, there was a discussion between thorgot + pete d at some point in the game which looks incredibly contrived (even to me, who knew it obviously was not), and I went on in detail about how it was such obvious scum distancing. I kinda wish Pie
had
replaced thorgot just so I had gotten to post that. :P

Thanks for the game, all. That certainly wasn't easy. :?
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."

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