433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[gorckat]

Ah, shit.

Go town.

[petroleumjelly]

Don't be a snot. I hate people who try to act all "clever" after they hammer somebody by acting all innocent.

[Pie_is_good]

Whatever twilight talk you say here will be debunked as soon as TSQ posts the lynch scene.

[Pie_is_good]

Oh, were you talking to Gorc?

[Thestatusquo]

Gorckat was vanilla townie. It is now night. Please get all choices to me by the 9th.

[Thestatusquo]

Off the Mark is killed. He was a vanilla townie.

[petroleumjelly]

*checks thread*

Hot damn, I had thought we lost. One last chance, then.

Vote: Pie_is_good

.

Figures I would be put up against lurkerscum in the end. I will clearly have to read through the thread and point out things which will show that Pie is scum. Not a fun prospect, since Pie doesn't have a whole lot to go off of... I will try to find time this weekend to get to that.

CPE, I swear to all that is holy and good that if you are the person responsible for lynching me as town for the first time in mafiascum history... I'm not sure what I will do, but I can promise it won't be good.

[Off the Mark]

Bah, go town. Boy do I feel silly.

[Pie_is_good]

Oh.

Damn.

Well,

Vote: PJ

, seeing as CPE's confirmed innocent and all.

My logic for voting Gorckat was: From my perspective, I "knew" he was scum (assuming 2 scum, that is. Which turned out to be wrong). That way, if OTM is nightkilled, CPE gets to fully weigh in anyways (meaning there was no problem to ending the day), and if CPE is nightkilled, I can be reasonably sure that Gorc would make the right choice for the town.

Now then... I'd be happy to put a case together against PJ, CPE, if that would be helpful. But sometimes that's just distracting when you're the confirmed innocent in an endgame. Up to you.

[creampuffeater]

AFDGFHGJ I HATE BEING IN THIS SITUATION. I suck at it.. and I think we will lose x_x. Pie, I would very much like to see a case against PJ, as I currently do not know who is scum out of the two of you. I hate this x_x

[petroleumjelly]

Didn't have much time today (busy with school). I'm through rereading the first 10 pages; if I keep at this pace, I should have a post in about four days or less making the case to show you why Pie is scum.

[Pie_is_good]

Will try and put something up this weekend.

[petroleumjelly]

Will try and put something up this weekend.

QFT. This week is kicking my ass.

[creampuffeater]

Ya, I am busy as well

[Thestatusquo]

If you do not post more, I will just modkill you all.

[petroleumjelly]

Reasons why Pie [Southpaw] and pete d are scum. Some portions high-lighted. I

highly

encourage you to read the posts I link to, else this is all for naught. I have condensed my points down to THREE THINGS (even though I had other things marked, I've been busy and these are the running themes which should be clear when you take the time to reread the game):

1.) Constant separation of votes between Southpaw/Pie and pete d.

It should be pretty clear that when there is a game with a 2-person scumgroup, it is more likely the scum will try to "distance" themselves without actually having to

argue

between each other. This is because with so few members in a scum-team, they simply cannot afford to lose their partner (especially when they are probably under the impression that there is a SK or another mafia team lurking in the shadows ready to finish them off in the night). In order to reduce a connection, then, they are very prone to

voting for different people

when bandwagons are in effect.

This makes sense on other levels as well; since a 2-person scum-group pretty much cannot afford to bus each other, they have to keep pressure on a townsperson for one day while giving themselves a foothold to push on somebody

else

the next day. In other words, they need to always keep a lynch "in the works" that is somebody besides themselves. Simply looking at TSQ's vote-counts should make this pretty apparent. The only real "anomaly" is when they both try to lynch the claimed Doctor.

Most notably is that Pie consistently went after Dodgy/CES and gorckat, and pete d consistently went after OTM and SSF.

2.) Phobic avoidance of mentioning pete d.

Southpaw never once says the name pete d – the most he does is quote somebody who was responding to pete d (so he himself was not responding to pete d in any manner whatsoever).

Once Pie replaces, he takes up the same schtick. Reading through Pie's posts, it really seems as if he is almost

phobic

of mentioning pete d, since he constantly walks around the subject.

Early in the game, Pie said he was going to "analyze everybody" in the game. He only follows through on a very small portion in Post 318... which of course does not say anything of pete d. He never gets around to finishing this.

He mentions him exactly twice in any sort of context. Once in Post 752 where he uses a throwaway FoS (coupled with a FoS on another player, which dilutes whatever effect it may have otherwise had), and the second time in Post 951, which wasn't so much a comment about pete d , but rather including him in a list (not a list of suspicions).

Here is a nice table of how many times Pie has mentioned each player by name (while they were still alive), not including words inside of quotes:

Died After One Day

a.)

Sweenytodd/InHimShallIBe: [0] + [16] = 16

b.)

dom:inc/IH: [4] + [2] = 6

c.)

Dodgy/CES/MBL: [35] + [who cares] = 35+

d.)

The Fonz: [11] = 11

Died After Two Days

e.)

SS91/SSF: [1] + [4] = 5

f.)

Dasquain: [6] = 6

g.)

pete d: [2] = 2

Died After Three Days:

h.)

gorckat: [38] = 38

i.)

thorgot/OTM: [1] + [20] = 21

Still alive (only including comments prior to today):

j.)

SGH/Kilm/CPE: [0] + [6] + [2] = 8

k.)

Eletriar/Nanook/PJ: [0] + [5] + [13] = 18

... this should make it

pretty damned clear

Pie was picking and choosing who he talked about. Lowest on the totem pole in terms of conversation was pretty clearly pete d. Of course, some of these numbers are deceiving; Pie had a good deal of discussion with some people (such as Dasquain) without saying his name, whereas he has

no conversation

with pete d.

3.) Conversely, pete d took an opposite strategy; he mentioned Southpaw/Pie just a few times, but (very importantly) only in the context of ASKING WHY PEOPLE WERE VOTING FOR SOUTHPAW/PIE

.

This is like

mega

-scum-partner strategy. They try to make you

doubt

the case on their partner by having you explain it, or to get somebody to put somebody lower on a list – and in the case somebody

can

make a good case, the fact that they showed "interest" in it makes it look like they were just being innocently inquisitive.

When Southpaw gets the early wagon on him, pete d suddenly becomes

more active than he has been throughout the rest of the game

, and all for the purpose of getting people to change directions away from Southpaw. Check out Post 33, Post 35, Post 38, and Post 56.

All of them have the hidden agenda of getting people to unvote Southpaw (Pie).

When Pie replaced in, pete d suddenly sit the fence on him. In Post 656 where he talks about his "suspicions", although he has a paragraph about Pie, it

expresses absolutely no opinion on Pie

(granted, he does this for other people as well, but he never gives on opinion on Pie the whole game that I can see). In Post 703, pete d expresses 'suspicion' of the people voting gorckat, which includes Pie and OTM in his post... of those two players, he puts suspicion on OTM and

not

Pie with an FoS.

THE BIGGEST INDICATOR

is this demure little post: Post 957. How quaint! At a time where the scum are clearly in the good (while he knows both he and Pie are safe, since SSF and gorckat are being run up), he pops into basically say: "gee golly, how can you be suspicious of

Pie

? Why isn't he

neutral

?" He is essentially

reverting back to indirectly defending Pie, just as he did for Southpaw, by getting people to doubt their cases

.

This

brings everything full-circle, and makes the connection

crystal

clear.

He defends Southpaw early when is afraid he will lose his partner to a senseless bandwagon; and just as the game is within his reach, he defends Pie

again

because he knows that if both he and his partner can survive the night, they will pretty much win.

~~~~~

I'll answer any questions/comments, with the caveat that I am very busy and may take a while to get to them.

[creampuffeater]

Very convincing, I dont have any questions currenly, however I am not going to be completely hastey, and I want to hear Pies case and anything he has to say.

[petroleumjelly]

*bump past locked threads*

[creampuffeater]

*bumps to find pie*

[Pie_is_good]

Will be posted by tonight.

[Pie_is_good]

Okay, didn't get quite as much time for this as I expected. I'll just make a few points here and there. Expect a counter-analysis of posts and who mentioned who and in-depth stuff, but for now I'll just knock out the obvious points to be made.

OTM is dead.

This is

huge

. If I were scum, my optimizing play would be to nightkill you (CPE). That way, I would be left with 3 unconfirmed innocents, one of which (OTM) just spent the last day completely convinced that PJ was scum. In this scenario, it's 50/50 between myself and PJ. Hypothetical Scenario A is: PieScum has a well-over 2/3 chance of winning. Hypothetical Scenario B is: PieScum has about a 1/2 chance of winning.

To pre-empt the inevitable "But Pie, that's WIFOM!" let me say this: Yes, it is WIFOM. What does that mean? It means that the above logic cannot be used to conclude with 100% certainty that PJ is scum. The above logic can, however, be used to conclude that PJ is probably scum (it's a significant strike against him, anyways). You can actually do math to prove stuff, but jist of the logic behind it is: if PJ were no more suspicious than usual because of the WIFOMery, there would never be a reason for PieScum to partake in the WIFOMery in the first place. Which PJ claims I did.

PJ's First Point is Total WIFOM, and Not the Kind that Makes Me Scummy

With a few small exceptions, scum can choose exactly how much they associate with each other. This means that any case such as the one PJ is making is a worthless attempt to outguess hypothetical scum. PJ's point would only be valid if there were an inherent benefit to scum for voting seperately, which there isn't.

PJ's table does not lead to the conclusions he claims it does.

... this should make it pretty damned clear Pie was picking and choosing who he talked about.

Um. Obviously. I'm not about to consult random.org to see who I should comment on in my posts.

I'll respond to this more in detail when I can support it with numbers, but: Some people play a more involved/noticable game than others, and those are (obviously) the people I'm going to spend my time talking about. PeteD played an unremarkable game, which is arguably scummy unto itself, but it's logical that I wouldn't talk about him much.

Argument by "Hidden Agenda," especially when the scum has the upper hand, is bull.

When you are scum, what do you focus on in your posts? Honestly: when the scum had the upper hand in a game, have you

ever

thought to yourself "How can I sneakily subconsciously presuade the town to unvote my scum partner?" You think, "How can I look like a townie?"

Like I said, more later.

[petroleumjelly]

*yawn* Just got home from a friend's house, rather tired. But:

1.)

OTM was only "suspicious" of me in that he

thought I was connected with gorckat because I was not voting for him

. gorckat turned up town, so it is safe to say his reasoning would have been thrown completely out the window.

Conversely,

Pie ended the day by hammering gorckat without an explanation until today

. And it's pretty obvious OTM wouldn't have exactly skimmed over that teensy fact.

I'm not saying I completely

understand

why Pie killed OTM. It's not really my job to explain it, because regardless

it happened

, and now we're dealing with it. Maybe Pie thought it would be easier to get

me

lynched than OTM (since he would

have

to lynch one of us in order to win) on the basis that nobody has ever really suspected OTM. But I'm not going to bother going down this path much further.

2.)

My point one is indeed WIFOM, but as Pie

points out in his first paragraph

WIFOM is still relevant. Check finished games - scum tend to diversify their votes until they are forced to solidify. Voting the same person draws a "connection", so just about any respectable scum-group you find is going to have purposeful spreading of votes.

3.)

My table

does

lead to the conclusion: the fact is, both Pie and his predecessor

never

talked with or about pete d. I doubt any other player who lived even up to yesterday has had

that

big of a "blind spot".

There is only so much "blindness" permitted in mafia before it is clearly

more than a coincidence.

4.)

Pie has not addressed the final point; read over pete d's posts for yourself, and decide if you think pete d was "trying to look town" or if he was trying to

subtly get people unvote his ONLY PARTNER

. I have played in two mountainous games to date (Calvin and Hobbes + Most Mountainousest) and I can tell you from experience that when there is a scum-group of 2, they

do not want their partner dead if they can do anything to stop it

. The same held true in this game between Pie/Southpaw and pete d.

[creampuffeater]

meh, I have seen enough.

Vote PIE

[Pie_is_good]

Impressive, PJ. I honestly thought town had that one in the bag.

It was probably a mistake to partially respond to that post - it gave PJ the chance to claim a few of his points as unanswered "victories." Of course, some of his responses (such as the WIFOM one) deserved a bit more analysis - he put up a nice smokescreen there.

Formal apologies to Gorckat. I honestly, honestly thought you were scum. I think I got myself into that mode of thinking where you interpret everything that's said through the "Gorckat is scum" perspective and fail to see town motivations for

anything

.

It sucks losing on a WIFOM fallacy, 'cause that's pretty much my third Thing after vig and massclaim, but it was well deserved by PJ. You played a good shorthanded game.

...yeah, that's my postmortem. Congratulations PJ/pete d. TSQ, you rule as always.

Pie

[petroleumjelly]

I think it would have been funnier if CPE had voted for "PIJ".

But eh, with my luck CPE is a full vig or a 2-Shot vig or a SK who is UNNK so long as he doesn't kill, or has some way so his vote doesn't count yet, and therefore me making this post is incredibly silly (which it technically is, but *shrug*).

Anyhow, ya, this game was pretty self-explanatory. My first few posts would have been exactly the same if I were town (or exceedingly close to them), because my first thought on seeing a 1-Shot Vig claim killing a claimed Doc on Night One was "ding ding ding, scum, kill it!". I actually read the thread becoming more and more convinced that kilmenator was scum, and that I needed to lynch her dead. At least until the mass-claim D2 (which actually helped the town in this case, though that does not mean I would advocate it in the future).

Eletriar/Nanook was my top suspect besides kilmenator when reading the game. Luckily people did not really read back on the game very much, or force me to answer for their actions. My biggest fear was CPE reading the game the whole way through on he final day, because I'm pretty sure had he done that I could not have covered up for Nanoon and Co.'s scumminess.

The Dasquain kill was largely because I thought he was going to be part of a 2-man mafia group (I could see him being paired with a good amount of people) -- so yes, when I constantly called him town during the day it was largely because I was thinking about killing him at night and didn't want to waste my breath. I was obviously under the impression the game was {2 mafia v 2 mafia}, and this is actually a point against me - in the future, when it turns out a mafia group is of a specific size, it is probably worth checking everybody's posts to see who constantly left that option open as a viability. I'm fairly sure both pete d and I went out of our way to say "2 mafia groups", which is exceedingly rare. If I was town I am fairly sure I would have

actually

been advocating "3 mafia v 1 SK" the whole time. Bad play there on my part.

Day Three I was largely trying to see if I could set myself up for an endgame situation - ideally, I wanted to lynch Pie, kill CPE, and then lynch gorckat on the final day. It became clear that was not going to happen, so I admittedly did try to see what direction CPE was leaning in terms of {OTM v PJ v Pie} so I would have a more informed nightkill choice (kudos for catching me on that, OTM). In the end, I figured OTM was going to be too solidified against me even though I was not gorckat's partner, so he had to go (since I was fairly sure Pie was not suspicious of OTM).

Funny note: when I was writing up my case against Pie, for whatever reason, I originally thought he had replaced thorgot. I came

seconds

away to submitting that case (which had

five

main points, each of them

much

more compelling than the case for Southpaw/Pie) before I realized my folly and had to throw the whole thing out. In particular, there was a discussion between thorgot + pete d at some point in the game which looks incredibly contrived (even to me, who knew it obviously was not), and I went on in detail about how it was such obvious scum distancing. I kinda wish Pie

had

replaced thorgot just so I had gotten to post that.

Thanks for the game, all. That certainly wasn't easy.