433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[petroleumjelly]

All righty. A favor has been called in, so I am apparently replacing NanookTheWolf. For starters, I'll

Unvote

in case I'm voting. I'll try to get around to reading the thread soon, and before anybody asks,

no

I do not want a synopsis of the game since I'd rather read it for myself instead of getting someone's take on what has happened up until now.

After looking at the front post, I am assuming the town is in LyLo. There don't appear to be death methods in the first post, so I assume you lynched wrong D1, there was a nightkill, you lynched wrong on D2, and then there was another nightkill? If that's the case, I would be

very

cautious with your votes.

PPE: Actually, the title says "Day Two", so now I'm confused. Were there three nightkills on N1 or something?

[Dasquian]

Yes. inHim was lynched Day 1. IH, MBL and The Fonz were all killed Night 1. Kilmenator has taken responsibility for the MBL kill as a one-shot vig. (Hope that doesn't count as a personal synopsis, since it's all undisuputed fact)

Welcome to the game!

[petroleumjelly]

Thanks.

And a "1-Shot" Vig, you say? (And no, that doesn't count as a synopsis, since you aren't trying to force me into having a certain opinion). I will note off-the-bat that strikes me as unrealistic, but this is only being said without having read any of the game yet (except for the first page now). My reasons off the top of my head:

1.) This is a mini regular game - if you're going to get a Vigilante role, it's

much

more likely to be a full-fledged Vigilante, especially since none of the other three dead power roles we have are limited in any such way.
2.) Apparently, there were three night-kills last night. On the surface, this indicates to me that there are two scum-groups (either two mafias of 2, or a mafia of 2-3 and a Serial Killer). Against dual killing abilities, I would

definitely

expect a full vig instead of a 1-Shot.
3.) If somebody only had 1-Shot, I am not likely to believe they would use it on Night One - the night where they have the

least amount of information

. I would certainly hope they would "keep it in their pants" until at least Night 2 in that situation.

Will probably read up until about page 5 and then go to bed (since it's almost 4:00 am here).

Also, another thought has struck me: if there is another Vig in the game, it may be in their best interests to simply not counter-claim Kilmenator and to instead take her out tonight. The hitch (seems there always is one) is that if she is scum, this will still allow her to nightkill tonight, whereas we may otherwise take away a nightkill by lynching her.

[Thestatusquo]

And Somestrangeflea replaces superstring, who picked up his prod, but never responded to it, or posted in thread.

[somestrangeflea]

Reread blah blah post later etc... You know the drill.

[petroleumjelly]

Pages 1-5

This is a list of the posts I found most notable of the players who are still alive. I am more than willing to flesh out these thoughts more than I have done so in this list, but I am tired and trying to be concise.

• Superstring91, post 34 [don't like] – it's hypocritical to say you're against a wagon of 4
  while being on it
  and not unvoting
  
• Dasquian, post 43 [like] – I completely agree with this post. Although I do tend to be somewhat conservative with my votes later in games, early game is the time where you need to use them to your advantage while you can do so without fear of quicklynches to get max info.
  
• pete d, post 56 [don't like] – I disagree with this sort of "tacit consent" argument. thorgot was not posting in this game, so he could not unvote. Finding him suspicious in particular (especially since other players in the game did not unvote) looks like selective pursual
  
• kilmenator, post 59 [don't like] – says a whole lot of nothing for somebody just posting.
  
• Dasquian, post 72 [don't like] – this post appears to read from a scum's perspective. "The mafia are
  not
  all going in for the kill, nor would it make sense for
  us
  to do so if you were right about
  us
  ..."
  
• kilmenator, post 82 [don't like] – I don't know if this is a trend, but kilmenator is sticking to theory discussion without commenting on what she thinks about actual players. If this turns into a theme in her play, I would suggest forcing her to nail down comments on players.
  
• Dasquain, post 92 [like] – Takes focus from two players [who both turned out to be town] to other players.
  
• Dasquain, post 107 [like] – I completely agree here. When somebody asks to be replaced in a situation like that (although it's WIFOM) chances are they're town. If they were trying to pull something like this in order to win, getting replaced means they can't count it as a win - so it's self-defeating. I am getting continually more confused why kilmenator is claiming to have used her 1-Shit Vig ability on MBL (who replaced Dodgy, the claimed Doctor).
  
• kilmenator, post 110 [don't like] – Now I'm even more confused.
  Kilmenator assumes scum will kill Dodgy because he claimed Doctor
  , and that "I guess we'll find out tonight". Why then would Kilmenator vig him? This is not making any sense. There had better be an explanation for this later, or I know where my vote will go.

Will work on reading more of the game later.

[gorckat]

Checking in, myself. Home with my sick daughter the last two days, and still no desk for the PC in my new home

I reread since my last post, and wil post again shortly- have to get a little work done first.

[gorckat]

I like your analysis, Dasq. Very well done. Only problem is, due to Pete D's recent reaction to my votes, I can't see Pete D and superstring both as scum. So we have to get it right between the 2 at the top of your scummy list.

They don't have to be together if they're on competing scum teams.

[somestrangeflea]

Unvote

if SS was voting.

Wow, already down to 8? I find that weird because this is the first game with more than one NK in any one night, AFAICR. Ah well, c'est la vie, vive la difference, etc...

[petroleumjelly]

Pages 5-10

• thorgot, Post 138 [don't like] – For how little thorgot has said, saying "something that draws suspicion to a
  town
  player is inherently
  anti-town
  " seems wrong on some level. It almost reads like an attempt to cast suspicion on Dasquain while calling him town. I could be misreading this, so I won't put much stock in it.
  
• thorgot, Post 146 [don't like] – "I was joking about my suspicions" is a complete cop-out, and sounds like backtracking. Furthermore, saying "it signifies nothing [...] for all we know,
  both
  Fonz and Dodgy are scum" seems quite the opposite of "signifying nothing". If he is suspicious of one, and then retracts it claiming suspicions on both, saying "it signifies nothing", I'm sensing serious contradictions.
  
• kilmenator, Post 184 [just noting] – I am surprised somebody sided with The Fonz in this discussion, but I suppose this will be the seed that starts the claim of 1-Shot Vig (whether or not it is true). I can't understand how 'retracting a claim' in that situation is scummy – I would have likely done the same thing had I replaced in (although I personally would have said "I will neither confirm nor deny my predecessor's claim").
  
• kilmenator, Post 222 [just noting] – Kilmenator here claims that she often leaves crumbs for her roles, so she had
  better
  have a crumb for "1-Shot Vig" if this is actually a habit of hers and she went out of her to mention it in this game.
  
• gorkcat, Post 224 [don't like] – I never like it when one lurker points at another lurker with their vote, especially when there is so much discussion. He should be able to have a better vote than that.

I am finding the whole Fonz discussion over the Doc claim frustrating, because I (along with Dasquain and Sweeny) would have been arguing that CES should not need to claim his role whatsoever. The Fonz may have turned out to be town, but I think if I were in the game I would have been voting him at that time.

[petroleumjelly]

Pages 11-15

• Dasquain, post 253 [like] – If it isn't obvious, I'm pretty solid in thinking Dasquian is town so far. He has had ample opportunity to pressure townspeople into lynches, and continually does not do so.
  
• kilmenator, post 278 [don't like] – This post is very unsatisfying for some reason. Why not say "I don't want to be seen as scummy, so why would I do scummy things?" Nobody wants to look scummy (or at least most people don't want to), and nobody (presumably) wants to do "noobish things". Saying "why would I?" does not explain "you
  did
  , so what do you have to say for yourself?". Fleh.
  
• gorckat, post 285 [confused] – Gorkcat, could you explain why you went from starting to pressure kilmenator to shifting to gorckat? Dropping pressure on somebody while you're in the process of questioning them does not give them incentive to answer you (at least not right away). I don't find this scummy, it just confuses me.
  
• Superstring91, post 298 [don't like] – This strikes me as rehashing what others have said in order to place a vote, and not putting much original thought into the game. I don't think this is the first time I've had this feeling, either.
  
• Nanook, post 302 [SLAP] – How is it I have a habit of replacing people I completely disagree with? Argh.
  
• Pie_is_good, post 318 [don't like] – CES is a player who pretty much posts 1-liners, and I'm fairly sure Pie oughta know that. Calling him scummy
  because
  he is posting 1-liners seems to be ignoring that. Furthermore, nobody has in any way counterclaimed the Doctor claim, so why the hell would you go voting the claimed Doctor? I just don't understand these votes. I suppose I have to concede that it's possible to hold this position as town, given that both Nanook and IH also both voted CES upon replacing in. *sigh*
  
• kilmenator, post 347 [don't like] – Here kilmenator misrepresents pete d – it seems obvious to me that when pete d says "kilmenator seems to be trying to put pressure on whilst keeping herself distanced", he means she is trying to put pressure while making it look like it's not coming from her. "Distanced" does not mean "distancing from a scum partner". Another small aside: kilmenator claimed to have just reread the game at this point in time, and yet did not know whether or not she was voting. That indicates to me she wasn't reading very closely.
  
• Off the Mark, post 352 [noting] – This post is striking me as possibly trying to shift pressure from kilmenator to InHimShallIBe, and OTM is not explaining what he thinks about kilmenator's post is "good", because I don't understand. This could be a connection, since OTM has previously said Kilm is a "main suspect", and now when Kilm gives a post which
  I
  don't think was very good, he suddenly drops it and puts a fourth vote on InHim, it makes me wonder if
  this
  is distancing.
  
• kilmenator, post 363 [noting] – Again, kilmenator mentions how CES "will be a target at night", which
  again
  makes me wonder why she would use a
  one-shot
  ability on somebody she claims she thought was
  going to die
  .
  
• InHimShallIBe, post 372 [noting] – And I'm not the only person to notice the immediate vote retraction of OTM off kilmeantor. Gorkcat did the same thing, as an extra note. Since I'm assuming InHimShallIBe was lynched sometime soon after this, I'm thinking it could easily be because he was starting to hit the nail on the head. Gonna be watching how these votes play out.

[petroleumjelly]

Pages 16-20

• Off the Mark, Post 381 [noting] – Immediately decided to confirm his vote on InHim after being speculated as being scum with Kilmenator. OTM, what other games have you played with kilmenator? Please link them to me.
  
• gorckat, Post 384 [noting] – A second instance of an implicit defense of kilmenator [by attacking InHim]. If the set-up is something like [3 Mafia, 1 SK], I think {kilmenator, OTM, gorkcat} is a reasonable place to start looking.
  
• kilmenator, Post 398 [don't like] – For some reason, this sixth vote on InHimShallIBe without comment does not surprise me.
  
• kilmenator, Post 406 [REALLY don't like] – If kilmenator really thinks CES is scum, she ought to be
  voting him
  and
  not InHimShallIBe
  . Terrible, terrible. I
  really
  think kilm is scum here.
  
• The Fonz, Post 417 [noting] – Wow,
  big surprise
  that Fonz died after making this post where he also thinks kilm/OTM are a good place to start looking at on D2.
  
• Pie_is_good, Post 424 [strange] – Pie, I know you as the guy who is always suggesting mass-claiming and generally wants people to claim. Why do you suddenly think InHimShallIBe should not claim at lynch-1 on day one? This seems contrary to what I would expect of you here. {Note: Pie then thinks both CES and InHimShallIBe should claim in that order in [Post 435], which seems to be more Pie-like, but then I don't understand why he gave the impression that he believed InHimShallIBe should not claim on principle.}
  
• kilmenator, Post 480 [noting] – Thinks MBL should be dealt with D2...
  
• kilmenator, Post 486 [don't like] – Seriously, what the hell. What's the point of even saying this?

Also, I think the first thing I will do address [Post 400] by Dasquian, since InHimShallIBe cannot answer for it. Replacing into a game and pursuing a scum-partner is by now means unreasonable. I

just

finished a game under an alt account where this exact same thing happened.

In Mini #424, Sweenytodd replaced in and voted his partner Ancalagon in this post. Why indeed? Because Ancalagon was already in some hot water, and it works for distancing purposes later on. Trying to use this a point of "Why would I attack my scumpartner?" answers itself – it allows you to

ask that very question

. [Note: I was Javert, in case any of you are wondering where I am in that game].

Also, as a complete aside, I don't remember kilmenator breadcrumbing being a Mason in Mini #424 (despite her claim that she often breadcrumbs her roles). This makes me much more interested in other games where she has breadcrumbed her role in posts.

[petroleumjelly]

Pages 21-25

• kilmenator, Post 515 [REALLY don't like]. This late in the day, saying

  "I honestly believe that if MBL is not scum, he will die tonight"

  means it makes

  no sense to Vig him

  .
  
  
• Off the Mark, Post 537 [don't like] – I'm noticing as attention starts to shift to Off the Mark, his reaction is to FoS two people in a row (the last two people to mention they are wondering about him, in fact).
  
• Gorckat, Post 538 [noting] – Gorckat puts InHim back in the hotseat over OTM. Noting this because the scumgroup of {Kilmenator, OTM, Gorckat} is just coming together more and more.
  
• OTM, Post 585 [noting] – "Oh, and I guess a Vig killed MBL?" is reading to me "Oh, let me set up kilmenator's claim by making it more plausible for a Vig to have killed MBL". I
  really
  think we have a pair of scum here.
  
• kilmenator, Post 592 [don't like] – Suggesting a mass-claim in this situation so early is
  not
  striking me as town. It is reading to me as "how about everybody claims to the mafia and SK can coordinate their kills?". Argh, so scummy.
  
• OTM, Post 593 [don't like] – "Well gosh, kilmenator, I dunno. Please explain to me the benefits of this plan, so that I can act as if you convinced me and we totally don't look connected."
  
• OTM, Post 599 [don't like] – And now we have "Hey guys, if I don't know the flavor it's because I deleted my role PM. A-yuk!"
  
• kilmenator, Post 615 [don't like] – Firstly, this does not have a breadcrumb like she says she does (which is apparently hiding something like "I am Doc"). Secondly, no – kilmenator said
  the scum would take out MBL
  . Thirdly, she only started saying this near the end of the day – in other words, probably around the time when she was making up her fake-claim. I don't believe it, and I will very likely be voting her.

As I was reading, it occured to me that a kilmenator scum-group could not possibly (or at least I would

hope

not) be able to take out both The Fonz and MBL, so I'll retract that earlier statement as being impossible.

[petroleumjelly]

And now I've read pages 26-30 a bit dumbfounded. It's fairly obvious that kilmenator pretty much

has

to be town since the town stupidly

mass-claimed

(why, why, why?) so that had there been any more power-roles they could have been immediately killed the very next night. Since I really don't think there are 3 killing groups that are all anti-town, this pretty much means kilmenator must also be town, but that she just (and pardon me, but I have to say it) has freaking sucked this game.

Seeing as I have to toss my largest suspect completely out the window, I will have to rethink the entire game because as I was reading I ended up trying to nail the scum-partners for kilmenator, which obviously would now not exist. I still have town vibes from Dasquain, and off the top of my head I would probably want to vote either OTM or Gorkcat right now, but I will have to read the game

again

with the knowledge that kilmenator is town before I think about placing a vote anywhere.

And this is why it's best to not tell people stuff that has happened while they replace into a game... it affects how I read it, and the conclusions I come to. I don't blame Dasquain for this, but I'm not too happy I just read through the entire game becoming more and more sure kilmenator was scum and then having it flipped upside-down in the last few pages.

[petroleumjelly]

Also, I'll note that both IH and The Fonz had "investigative" roles. Gunsmiths check for guns (would probably get a "gun" result for any scum, and a Vigilante), and the Watcher sees everybody who targets a certain player at night (so they could 'watch' somebody being killed - and if that person doesn't claim to kill them, you know you've caught a scum).

[pete d]

Well, I was wrong about superstring and nanook not posting. My bad.

unvote

.

[pete d]

Only problem is, due to Pete D's recent reaction to my votes, I can't see Pete D and superstring both as scum. So we have to get it right between the 2 at the top of your scummy list.

Can anyone else see something wrong here?

[Off the Mark]

^^^ I didn't mean to limit it down to two suspects like that. Just saying we can't make the mistake of thinking, "Well, both of these guys could be scum, so it might not matter much which one we choose."

The reason I doubt you are both scum is because you were willing to vote for superstring after my initial vote, but you weren't willing to vote for gorckat right away. Of course I could be making the mistake of interpreting townie actions as if they were scummy, but you gotta look at everything both ways.

PJ, I was convinced you were scum, you were pushing the whole Kilm-OTM-gorckat thing so hard, with little-to-no evidence, but glad to see you came around eventually. Hopefully you will not be stuck in a rut again during your next reread.

I have not played with kilm before, but I read a game she was in. No idea which one that was, now.

[petroleumjelly]

PJ, I was convinced you were scum, you were pushing the whole Kilm-OTM-gorckat thing so hard, with little-to-no evidence, but glad to see you came around eventually. Hopefully you will not be stuck in a rut again during your next reread.

I understand that the pairing I thought was most likely is practically impossible by this point, by I

am

interested that you say I pushed it "with little-to-no evidence". Did you fully understand my reasons for why I would doubt she was telling the truth

upon replacing

into the game without having full knowledge of everything that happened? I felt I was pushing it with

quite a lot

of evidence, especially for a town which has turned out to be mountainous after one night (since we now have no power roles whatsoever).

[Off the Mark]

I like your analysis, Dasq. Very well done. Only problem is, due to Pete D's recent reaction to my votes, I can't see Pete D and superstring both as scum. So we have to get it right between the 2 at the top of your scummy list.

They don't have to be together if they're on competing scum teams.

What? In a "dry, bland, generic" game? I don't think so.

I've read through all the Day 2 conversation again, and I still don't have a strong feeling about who the scum are. If I had to guess, I would say it is superstring and gorckat. It could also be Pete D, but he has given me more town vibes than string and gorck have.

Oh and as to my other theory about string and Pete not being scum together? Throw that out. Pete could be figuring that string does honestly look scummy, so he's getting on the bandwagon early, and then if it goes all the way he looks much less suspicious. Very possible, IF Pete is scum, which I'm still very unsure about.

[gorckat]

Dry bland, generic doesn't scream 1-shot Vig, Gunsmith or Watcher to me. I think Cop, Doc and Scum when I think of a generic game. I suppose a 'generic' Cop can constructed out of a Gunsmith and Watcher, so perhaps that is what the generic means.

To my knowledge, 2 scum groups is possible in a Normal, which this game is, so I've kept that as a possibility in my speculation.

Why'd you duck pj's question, OTM?

[Off the Mark]

Didn't mean to, just wasn't sure what the question was asking at first. When I first read it, I though, "Huh? Kilm didn't replace in" but now I get it.

I guess I can see how PJ would think that way, but I think he took a theory that was based on very little and kept looking for things to confirm it, rather than objectively evaluating all the evidence on its own. Basically he ended up making a mountain out of a molehill. Also, he never commented on my belated analysis of kilm's post, which I thought was a bit suspicious at the time, since it addressed one of his earlier suspicions directly.

Now you seem like you're trying to stir the pot, gorckat.

[gorckat]

I am, somewhat. Things are a little slow. We're waiting on pj to re-read his second time and also for flea to jump in.

No reason for the rest of us to stop chatting (I would have over the weekend, but again with no access).

I'm just as uncertain as you claim to be. At one point I was convinced that you, kilm and Das were clear. But two of the other 4 have been replaced, so that tosses that out the window (which I may have already done last week...I forget) since new people bring new stuff.

[somestrangeflea]

Apologies. When I replace in, especially in longer games such as this, I don't like making huge posts which analyse everything. I prefer to play the game as if it's just started, with a brief read-through to catch up on key events, such as the Dodgy/CES Claim/Unclaim, and the massclaim.

[Off the Mark]

So, flea, any reason we shouldn't lynch you now? I'm feeling about ready to start some voting.