503: Dead People Have Powers - Happiness Or Destruction?

[Night_Light]

Odd references to old songs?

Random

vote: kilroy 867-5309

[Night_Light]

Right, but even if we aim to lynch our cop, we'll have the same problem as trying to lynch mafia but in reverse. Since the set-up is pretty clear, there's a large incentive for mafia to fake-claim town power roles.

So, do we all have the impression that the first person we kill will forever have the power of decided whether dead people get to move on to the afterlife, or just be dead? And I'm a bit confused which of those states lets people use their powers...

[Night_Light]

Ok, so it's true that no matter who we aim on lynching, the mafia can possibly counter-claim.

Is it worth still trying to find those people and elicit possible counter-claims, just so we'll have more information on who is possible mafia?

It also looks like we'll know right away if we lynch the wrong person, since mafia will show vanilla once dead but power roles will actually be revealed (if I'm reading that right).

[Night_Light]

It seems like we could use some method of trying to seperate out our power roles so that we can try to lynch one of them. THe two options I've heard so far are forcing them to claim, or forcing everyone to claim vanilla or not vanilla (channeler keeping quiet in both situations, as I understand it). Either of these options would have the advantage of forcing the mafia to commit, and possibly giving us a clear lynch for day one. I think that this has already been suggested, but if we get into a really nasty counter-claim war our odds of not lynching scum (the desireable case) would actually be higher at that point if we just picked someone from the vanilla pool.

What are the advantages/disadvantages to the different ways of forcing people to claim? And wouldn't this give away a lot of information for the mafia? (Another question might be, what happens if the mafia do get information? in general it seems that we will still be able ot lynch whoever we want, and night-killing a power role might actually be bad for the mafia).

[Night_Light]

Possible problems with Y's plan:

Not everyone will claim
If a mafia ever slips through, they'll know just who not to lynch

Still, it seems pretty important that we get it right on the first one, so I guess I would be OK with everyone claiming power role or not...

[Night_Light]

I don't understand what you're saying, Kilroy. It seems to me that Setael's plan would limit counterclaims more. However, do we know exactly how many mafia we have?

But just to reiterate, I'm willing to claim if that's what we decide.

[Night_Light]

@ Random,

I believe the claim theory is thus.

Right now, we could have 3/4 odds just picking at random. If we ask the cop to claim, not more than 2 will probably claim. If only one claims, we'll lynch him or her , which is 100% town. If two, then we'll move on to doctor. If only one doctor claims, we'll again have 100% chance of hitting town. If two claim, we'll move on to vanilla townies, at which point, even if we had 3 mafia to start, we're down to 1/8.

@ Draux, I'm not sure it's productive to tell the mafia our plans for future lynches now.

[Night_Light]

I thought dead people could vote, so the town wiping self out would be OK...

[Night_Light]

I'm up for starting our plan once the replacements are here, unless they object. I don't have a problem with the dice rolling.

[Night_Light]

fair enough. i'm ok with starting with random acts if we do start though.

[Night_Light]

OK... so we've shortened the list of possible lynches by four.

@ draux, I agree, our position isn't that bad now, but it's possible that the scum had no choice. If a power role claimed (or they felt that one would) not making a sacrifice by counter-claiming would have allowed us to lynch a power role today, and made their jobs a lot harder. So from that point of view it was probably a risk that they had to take.

FOV: setael, for wanting a huge mass claim. I think rolling dice would have been preferable for the town.

[Night_Light]

I'm also vanilla town.

[Night_Light]

So, we now need to pick a vanilla townie to lynch. Perhaps we should each make a suspects list, and then lynch whomever appears on none/least of them? Mine so far would have DG, DO, and Setael.

Oh, and

unvote

[Night_Light]

@ setael, actually, I have been reading the thread.

If you have a specific problem it'd be more helpful for you to point it out, or defend yourself then accuse me of not paying attention.

[Night_Light]

Just wanted to say I'm still here and reading. I got way busier than I expected this weekend, but I'm going to post a suspect list soon.

[Night_Light]

OK, I did some re-reading.

On the docs: Random acts a bit odd. He says a couple of times that he doesn't think power roles would want to claim, and suggests that they might fake-claim vanilla. This does fit well with the way he doesn't claim even after Kilroy rolls, but waits to counter claim. But spambot doesn't really say much at all, except kind of general things, like when he tries to call setael on mentioning the number of mafia. So i guess what random did makes more sense to me as a coherent story.

On the cops, Kilroy consistently tries to draw attention to the doctor over the cop, he suggests originally that we lynch the doc, which could make sense if he was the cop. Interestingly, I think he said that he supported a more general claim rather than a specific which-power-role claim too. I don't like the way Kabenon claims, it seems really sudden. So, if Kilroy was planning on c-claiming, he'd at least been planning since the game started.

But I'm really not terribly sure about any of this.

[Night_Light]

I have a question about spambot's plan. Do we get power roles revealed as soon as we lynch them?

Max says

power roles will be revealed when they are in the afterlife (mafia will be called vanilla) when they reach afterlife the full role and alignment will be revealed

but to me those sound contradictory. As I understand it, the afterlife is where people go 3 phases after being transported by the transporter. So.. we get power roles once the decision on whether to transport has been made, but mafia after they arrive? What does everyone else make of this?

I do agree that everyone should continue to post who they suspect of the pairs.

[Night_Light]

I agree with Setael that we need to start lynching someone we trust. If Draux, I and Setael are the ones people have mentioned, it seems reasonable to make choices from that group.

vote: draux

Again, like Setael said, if we can get a majority for anyone else i would go for that.

[Night_Light]

I'm OK with it, because I do know that I'm a townie, which is a certainty I don't have about anyone else. I'm maybe a bit concerned about my ability to make good choices of whom to transport, but I think our main concern here should just be to lynch whomever we find most trustworthy.

[Night_Light]

OK. Sounds like a plan to me.

unvote

vote: setael

[Night_Light]

all right. I'm happy we managed to successfully lynch a townie
that sounds so wrong....

but yes. I want to hear kabenon and kilroy, so we can decide who to lynch.

I also interpreted the afterlife rules as specifying that we wouldn't know about power roles until they were transported, otherwise this seems a bit broken.

[Night_Light]

So, it seems to me that one of our challenges eventually will be severing ties to the afterlife by finding the mafia channeller. Just another things we want to consider with our choices. I agree with the general feeling that we should probably just lynch all four claimed power roles now, in some order.

[Night_Light]

I really think we should just lynch all of the claims, and then transport whichever of them show up "vanilla." It's our best shot at eliminating 2 mafia and getting our power roles to be useful.

vote: kabenon

[Night_Light]

Yes. I'm not too certain about who is the real cop, but right now I think it's probably kabenon. I think we just need to lynch them all. It's true that they might get in some night-kills, but we will have to kill them eventually and we don't ever have a way to get them transported more quickly, so we might as well do it now and just transport the mafia as soon as we can. At least if they start making night-kills it will marginally improve our odds of finding the rest of the scum...

[Night_Light]

Ow. Being dead hurts.

Personally, I don't believe kabenon. He didn't come up cop, so he's just trying to get in as many night-kills as he can before we transport him. I think setael should send him on immediately - the slight risk that he might actually have some kind of crazy, secret, post-restricted power isn't worth the huge likelihood that he's scum.

[Night_Light]

I think we need Max to clarify when the scum can kill. I had assumed that htey could only kill while one scum was a ghost- that after the mafia was transported the kills would stop again until we had another dead mafia. In that case spambot's plan makes slightly more sense - if he doesn't come up doc we're only sacrificing one night.

even if the mafia can now kill every night, there's not much that we can do about it whether or not spambot is telling the truth.

So, overall, the spiritualist needs to stay under wraps for now, and shouldn't even think about coming forward until we have a proven doc dead. i would actually be OK with lynching either kilroy or spambot or random acts - i think we should just clear all three of them out and transport the vanillas.

[Night_Light]

Do we really double-our night kills once two scum are dead? That is pretty crucial to know.

Other than that, I lean towards a kilroy lynch so we can follow the original plan. having a working cop will help us find the last scum, which will indirectly help protect our channeler, plus we're pretty sure we can lynch our cop tonight, while our odds of hitting the doctor are lower.

[Night_Light]

All right. Since I think that's the best answer we're going to get to the question of when the mafia can kill

vote: kilroy

If there isn't a cop, then he'll show up vanilla and Setael can transport him too, I guess.

[Night_Light]

I think it's worthwhile to try and find our cop so that they can try to make a protect if for some reason it become necessary. Because we have a deadline coming up, I am willing to

vote: randomacts

[Night_Light]

I pretty much agree with ckillor. Whether you agree that we need the doctor dead to try and possibly protect the spiritualist, or that we need to lynch mafia and 50/50 are the best odds we're going to get, voting for one of the docs is obviously the way to go.

[Night_Light]

I guess that it's true that we don't need to rush as much as in most games to find the scum, because they'll only be NKing while dead. However, I don't think there's any player who's acted so suspicious yet that I think the odds on them are higher than 50/50, which is what we can get if we lynch the docs. I think that there is also some weight to the reasons why it would be nice to have a working doctor.

The advantage of scum hunting in the rest of the populace is that we could conceiveably arrange for our nights of NKs to overlap. However, those will be much more dangerous nights if we don't have a doctor yet.

Until someone does something to make themselves overwhelmingly suspicious, I think we should stick with the plan.

[Night_Light]

vote: random acts

too bad we couldn't do this yesterday...

[Night_Light]

Hmm. I'm in the same place setael is... in that i think the way ckillor did the claim thing looked suspicious (more so than draux certainly), but i'm just not sure i'm ready to lynch him yet....

[Night_Light]

I'm not voting yet either, but I'd like to hear from Draux about Y's point. If you are the spirituatlist, why did you let yourself be considered for the first lynch?