503: Dead People Have Powers - Happiness Or Destruction?

[Y]

I think the best plan is to have everybody claim exactly what they are, including neutrals, channelers, power roles and mafia. That would be the best play for the town.

Now a more serious suggestion:
As said already, mafia didn't have the chance to talk. We should use it to our advantage D1.
We can ask everybody to claim power role or not (Channeler=Vanilla). Based on the outcome we decide from which set we want to lynch. If mafia claims vanilla, we lynch one of the power roles, if they claim power roles, we lynch a townie (If they claim mafia, we don't lynch them yet). This way we keep the better odds. No one knows which group will be selected from, so no one can break the system. Mafia don't have the time to talk with each other, so some one will probably mess up.

What do you think?

[ckillor]

i think it could possibly work, but only if everyone agreed to do it, which i doubt they will

[kabenon007]

I'm game for Y's suggestion, so long as the group picked from is decided after everyone, and I mean everyone! has claimed. No one can be left out on this one. Everyone must claim, or the entire purpose is defeated.

[Spambot]

As long as the channeler remains hidden, I'd be alright with a mass claim. One thing, though.

Right now, we are not playing mafia at all. Suggesting ways to game the setup gives scum the ability to appear to be contributing without actually doing anything that would hurt their chances of winning. The fact that the scum are uncoordianted today is a good plus in our favor, but I think that we should still be scum hunting. Like, we aren't going to lynch scum today, but we should still be looking for scum. That would give us a good means to decide if we believe what the scummy people claim, as well.

At the moment, I'd have to be most suspicious of Qman and Coron. I know I said scum can participate and appear genuine, but that doesn't mean that they would. I recently played in another game with a strange setup that required a lot of strategy, but I was scum and decided to lurk through it, because I didn't want to help the town come up with a good plan. I don't think either of those two have posted in the thread yet, and that's pretty strange.

(this is a pseudo-vote, and I recommend others to do the same for tracking purposes without accidentally lynching somebody we don't want to today)

FOV: Qman

[Y]

i think it could possibly work, but only if everyone agreed to do it, which i doubt they will

The last time we tried something like that (A kind of a mass claim), who decided to do what was as helpful as who claimed what.

Of course we take no action until everybody claims, that would miss the point.

Spambot, I can't recall you posting until now either...

[Y]

I did a little check, and it appears that you did post before (This one is the third).

One of the posts has almost no relevant content. It talks about counter-claiming the power roles and criticizes the way people "Random Vote", which is the way they do in all games, so it's pointless.
The other one is the one where you said that the setup can be abused if we do the "Lynch the cop first thing" plan.

So, aren't you contradicting yourself a bit?

[Spambot]

I did a little check, and it appears that you did post before (This one is the third).

One of the posts has almost no relevant content. It talks about counter-claiming the power roles and criticizes the way people "Random Vote", which is the way they do in all games, so it's pointless.
The other one is the one where you said that the setup can be abused if we do the "Lynch the cop first thing" plan.

So, aren't you contradicting yourself a bit?

Premise: "One of the posts has almost no relevant content. It talks about counter-claiming the power roles and criticizes the way people "Random Vote:, which is the way they do in all game, so it's pointless." (opinion, can not be proven true.)

Premise: "The other is the one where you said that the setup can be abused if we do the "Lynch the cop first thing" plan."

Presumed premise: "You said that people not contributing are scummy."

Conclusion: "Aren't you contradicting yourself a bit?" (Or, as I'm reading it, "don't you fit your own definition of scummy?")

As I noted, the first premise is an opinion, and not something that can be proven or used as logic to support a conclusion. The second is a statement, and doesn't appear to be trying to approve anything at all.

I notice you leave out discussing if the content of my most recent post is any good, which I see as a great oversight when your criticizing my overall participation in the game.

Also, the conclusion is a fallacy. Ad Hominem Tu Quoque ("you too fallacy"), claiming that my argument is wrong by saying "you do it too, so it must be false" without addressing any of the actual points.

That post wasn't perfectly clear, so I'm interpreting it in the best way I can. If I'm accusing you of saying something you didn't, tell me so and I'll reevaluate.

[Night_Light]

Possible problems with Y's plan:

Not everyone will claim
If a mafia ever slips through, they'll know just who not to lynch

Still, it seems pretty important that we get it right on the first one, so I guess I would be OK with everyone claiming power role or not...

[Kilroy8675309]

Everyone has to claim, but I'm sure the scum are thinking right now, "Hah, we just won't. What're they going to do, lynch us?" No. Those who refuse to claim will

not

be lynched. That gives us better odds of hitting a Town as our first lynch. Let them not claim.

I'm all for a mass-claim. I'll even go first, when it's been officially decided.

[Y]

@ Spambot: I just insinuated that you should check yourself before accusing other people and point them as scum. If I thought you're scummy enough, I would have FoSed you.

About the plan for mass claiming, there are two main things to consider:
1. No one is voting against it ATM, so we can assume everybody will claim. We can always decide not to proceed if people aren't cooperating.
2. The decision whether to claim or not gives us information as well. If a player refuses to claim while the town has decided we should go through with it, he's FoSing himself.

About the "Who will go first" question, I have the best way of doing it so people will get as little information of the order as it can get. I'll explain when necessary.

[death_omen]

I think the best plan is to have everybody claim exactly what they are, including neutrals, channelers, power roles and mafia. That would be the best play for the town.

Now a more serious suggestion:
As said already, mafia didn't have the chance to talk. We should use it to our advantage D1.
We can ask everybody to claim power role or not (Channeler=Vanilla). Based on the outcome we decide from which set we want to lynch. If mafia claims vanilla, we lynch one of the power roles, if they claim power roles, we lynch a townie (If they claim mafia, we don't lynch them yet). This way we keep the better odds. No one knows which group will be selected from, so no one can break the system. Mafia don't have the time to talk with each other, so some one will probably mess up.

What do you think?

I completely disagree and that kind of logic is just asking for trouble.. We should just stick to facts and try found out whos scum through guile, not faulty logic.

If everyone claims you will not know who to believe because they cannot prove there role atm since there has been no night choices/actions of any sort yet so we could fall in suspicious of everyone who claims a non power role.

That kind of suggestion strikes me to become quite suspicious of you. Why would you suggest that on d1 (pg3) and in a closed setup game, when we dont really know the variety of roles that could/could not exist.

Vote:Y

[Setael]

If I'm understanding the setup right, the scum's #1 goal at this point is to ensure that the first person lynched is scum, and our #1 goal is to make sure that doesn't happen.

So here's an idea. There are only 3 scum + 1 scummy spiritualist. So we have the cop claim. Once the cop has claimed we need to have every player check in to make sure the real cop isn't just not paying attention. Every single person will need to say "I am not the cop" or something so we ensure that the person claiming cop really is the cop. If there is a counter claim then we know one of those claiming cop is Town and one is mafia. That gets one of the mafia out of the way.

If there is no counterclaim, we lynch the cop and once he is dead he can begin investigating. If there is a counterclaim, we do the same thing with the doc. The doc claims, everyone checks in saying "I am not the doc". If there is a counterclaim, we know one of them is the doc and one is mafia and we have another mafia out of the way.

So then we either have a confirmed innocent (either cop or doc if one isn't counterclaimed) or if they're both been counterclaimed we've pinpointed 2 of our mafia. We'd then only have two mafia unaccounted for and the odds are much lower that we'll accidentally pick a mafia member to be the one to decide who gets sent to the afterlife.

At that point, we just need to decide if we want everyone to claim or just pick a person we all feel is Town. At least our odds would be a lot better. I'm definitely willing to claim if that's what is decided. I think the best move right now though would be to have the cop claim and see what happens.

It's going to be interesting lynching the people we feel are the most Town-like. The last thing we want to do is lynch a mafia, because then they get to start making NK's.

[Setael]

@death_omen: You do realize the last thing any of us want to do right now is vote for someone we think is mafia, right?

[kabenon007]

Yeah death_omen. We don't want scum lynched first. Care to explain this slip-up?

[Y]

I completely disagree and that kind of logic is just asking for trouble.. We should just stick to facts and try found out whos scum through guile, not faulty logic.

What facts do you have?

If everyone claims you will not know who to believe because they cannot prove there role atm since there has been no night choices/actions of any sort yet so we could fall in suspicious of everyone who claims a non power role.

That's the whole point. If we have too many townies, we choose from the power roles. If we have too many power roles, we choose from the townies.
Of course we have no night actions to guide us. That's because there will not be until we lynch some one, but if we lynch the wrong some one - The town's in serious trouble.

That kind of suggestion strikes me to become quite suspicious of you. Why would you suggest that on d1 (pg3) and in a closed setup game, when we dont really know the variety of roles that could/could not exist.

Call me stupid, but I recall reading the list of roles in one of the first posts.
Since the rules claim that the first lynch is crucial, I think that this kind of idea works only on D1. Afterwards is useless.

Vote:Y

I actually propose something that will help the town, and actually ask what the other players think of it before I put it to work. It's very odd that while other players did find the plan helpful and do try to make it work, or at least say why it won't, you're trying to dismiss it using the logic of a regular game, which functions all the way around than this one.

In a regular game I'd be voting you right now, and I believe that's what you hoped me and the other players to do, but with this setup I think that lynching a mafia D! is the worst play we can do. Sorry.

By the way, you may try and lynch me, at least we'll have a D1 town aligned lynch.

[Y]

I forgot,

FoS: D_O

.

@ Setael: Your plan works on the same principal as mine. I think it might work.

[Kilroy8675309]

I think Y's plan is just a little bit better than Setael's, because 1: What do we do upon the inevitable counterclaim, 2: What if multiple people claim to be the doc/cop (as in, more than 2?), 3: It seems like the first person has no ability but to usher along new souls, even if he is a power role.

Mod, is that correct?

I'm eager to get the claim underway. Talking about it is doing little but outing D_O as scum.

[Night_Light]

I don't understand what you're saying, Kilroy. It seems to me that Setael's plan would limit counterclaims more. However, do we know exactly how many mafia we have?

But just to reiterate, I'm willing to claim if that's what we decide.

[Draux]

Basically everyone's "plan" is the same or very similar. I think we've all decided that this is the best method of proceeding at this point. And Night_Light, your average Mini would have roughly 2-3 Mafia.

On another note, something just struck me. If we successfully Lynch the Cop today, what would the Scum do once they have a chance to discuss amongst themselves? I thought about this, and I believe the chance that they decide to sacrifice one of themselves is about 50/50, but will rise to almost certain once the Town Channeler is dead. When that happens, they'll obviously want their own Channeler dead to prevent the Lynched Cop from revealing investigation results. So if at this time one of the Scum claims to be Scum, would we Lynch them? Or would we not Lynch them? Would they WIFOM themselves into getting someone who is not the Channeler to claim?

Also, Mafia are not revealed as Mafia upon death. So who would the Transporter (the person we Lynch first) send to the Afterlife? Obviously Nightkill victims will not be sent to the Afterlife, but what about the people we have Lynched? Since Max has kindly taken out the No Lynch rule, we have to Lynch somebody everyday and cannot rely entirely on the Cop. This somewhat worries me. We would have to be very careful on whom we Lynch.

[RandomActs]

Am I missing something? If we start to claim and have 2 cops claimed, the odds are 50/50 of lynching scum if we choose between them, something we don't want at this point. On the other hand, if we lynch at random we only have a 3 in 12 chance of lynching scum. Sure, we'll get more info by claiming, but so will the scum. So why exactly are we talkin about claiming?

[Night_Light]

@ Random,

I believe the claim theory is thus.

Right now, we could have 3/4 odds just picking at random. If we ask the cop to claim, not more than 2 will probably claim. If only one claims, we'll lynch him or her , which is 100% town. If two, then we'll move on to doctor. If only one doctor claims, we'll again have 100% chance of hitting town. If two claim, we'll move on to vanilla townies, at which point, even if we had 3 mafia to start, we're down to 1/8.

@ Draux, I'm not sure it's productive to tell the mafia our plans for future lynches now.

[Setael]

If there is a counterclaim, we won't choose between them. We would lynch neither of them. But for every counterclaim, we know that one of them is mafia, which narrows down the people to choose from, and decreases the chance that we accidentally lynch mafia first.

Also, the number of scum was given to us by the mod. The role pm says something along the lines of "You are scum with X and Y. Z is your scummy spiritualist" which means 3 mafia and a scum spiritualist.

I don't know what the process would be to get this going, but I think the smartest thing to do would be to have the cop claim and then have everyone else post saying "I am not the cop" so we know every Townie has seen it. Do we need a vote on it?

vote: The cop needs to claim.

And... I'll be the first to say that I am not the cop.

[Y]

@ Draux: Of course the mafia would like to sacrifice one of their own, but how will they do that? They have no NK until one of them is dead.
About the "No Lynch", I think it does exist in this game. I can recall reading we can vote it. It's actually a possibility in a deadline.

I think both my plan and Setael's will work, but mine is faster because it needs only each player to claim only once.
If we decide to go through with it, I suggest that some one throws a dice to decide who goes first, than the one who claimed throws a new dice to decide who's next. The dices can't be faked (We checked it alredy in another game).
Each player claims one of the following:
Cop, Doc, Town, Neutral, Mafia, Mafia Channeler. I know some of those won't appear in the real claims.
The town channeler should claim "Town".

[Y]

Mod: Can you please prod the players who hadn't posted yet?

[Kilroy8675309]

1. ckillor
2. Coron
3. death_omen
4. Draux
5. kabenon007
6. Kilroy8675309
7. Night_Light
8. Qman
9. RandomActs
10. Spambot
11. Seteal
12. Y

As I would like to get this started. Even if we're not up to it right now, we can just go with whoever the dice selects the

instant

we're ready. Tell us, O mighty dice... who shall claim?

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (8) = 8

The dice have spoken. Obey.