Newbie 988-Apocalypse(Over)-Scum win

[yabbaguy]

Yo. I'm yabbaguy, the IC. With some help from kyle and Adrien, I'm sure, I'm here to teach you the game. I'm also here to win the game. Following is a list of points that I find most pertinent to a first game.

Read it and get the gist of these points, please. You could save a Townie's life (i.e. your life).

1- If you're vanilla, don't claim that fact. Perhaps it's believable, but the really disastrous consequences behind it is that the Mafia (who know you're Town) now have one less possible Town target who could be one of the powerroles (ie: Cop or Doctor), and that therefore gives them an advantage. The last thing we want is giving scum unnecessary clues. Necessary only comes when powerclaiming is the only way out of your lynch or we agree that partially or fully massclaiming is optimal.

2- No Lynch is a statistically bad idea right now, as agreed by many on this forum. The mistake made by quite a few newbies I've seen is that they fall into the thought of "so often a townie is lynched on D1- we'd better get some concrete information before we make a choice on who to lynch".
Recalling that a lynch is the ONLY way to actually kill the Mafia in this game, No Lynching actually loses us a mislynch. If we try every time, at least it takes 3 screw-ups before the Mafia win. However, if we No Lynch at this moment, the game could end in as few as 2 mislynches. Weakening the town's only weapon is RIDICULOUSLY bad. Now of course, No Lynch doesn't always do dastardly things, so later on, we may put serious consideration towards it. For now though, most would contest it's a bad idea.

3- Take stances, be honest, and be opinionated! The ultimate objective here is to see how people take stances and how they behave when certain situations arise (a claim, a massive wagon forming, whatever). Transparency is an incredible pro-town thing, and the more transparent you show yourself to be, the easier it will be to read you. Vanillas, you've got absolutely nothing to hide, so there's no excuse for lurking and being introverted about your opinions. Some members decide to take that approach, but it complicates the game that much further, and I believe it to be unnecessary.

In other words, don't be the one who just says "I don't know what to do, I'm not good at this game. What if I lynch scum?" and just sits in a corner feeling sorry for himself. That is ridiculously non-transparent. Also don't sit on the fence and say "erm, arm, hmm, he could be Mafia, but I'm not sure". Fencesitting is more a Mafioso's operating procedure. And even they should cut back on that.

4- Play to your win condition. Remember, you win EVEN IF YOU DIE. That therefore means you need to be consistently trying to get your antagonists eliminated. Scum outing scumbuddies can and has force-abandonned a game and probably will get you permabanned from the site. As Town, you're trying to vote for Mafia. Selfvoting and giving up is... well... anti-town, because you know for fact that the lynch is going to be on someone who's pro-town. That's not gonna win you the game.

5- Learn your arguing fallacies and avoid them as much as possible. Some common ones include:

WIFOM- a path of circular logic or one where reverse psychology can confound analysis of a statement.

Example: "Oh that guy got shot, and he was accusing X, so X is probably scum!"
"Nah, that's what the Mafia want you to think. It's clearly not him."
"But maybe the Mafia knew you were going to say that. It still could be."
...and this dialogue could theoretically carry on for decades. Avoid.

Appeal to Emotion (AtE)- For example, guilt-tripping players like "You'll be sorry to see me flip town when you get me lynched!" This usually implies a lack of inner resources to actually give an intelligent response as to why they shouldn't be lynched. Avoid.

I'd also like to point out that trying to argue while emotionally stressed, upset, or even ridiculously excited is sub-optimal. Clear, level-headed thoughts are ultimately what win out, especially since we play 3-week deadlines 'round these parts, so we all have time to think about it. Even if you are lynched, your statements don't die with you; we can always view them later. Keep your cool as much as possible.

6- Remember, we have THREE full weeks! If you're emigrating from another Mafia forum, that's going to be a shock to the system, but we like that as it gives us plenty of time to digest what everyone's saying, intelligently come up with who should be the lynch, and still resume with our normal lives. That said, rushing the Day and being eager to lynch someone within a couple of pages is not a good idea. I'm not going to state a precise minimum of how much time we should use as it really does vary depending on how active we are, but make sure that you have a good sense of most/all the players in the game before you make up your mind that it's time to lynch or even put them at L-1 (that is, 1 vote away from lynching, L-2 is 2 away, etc.)

7- Take all advice and player-provided information with a grain of salt. While having informants like me is great remember that we may be scum- or perhaps just plain wrong. Ultimately, you have to think for yourself, and while scum won't (and would be stupid to) lie all the time, you have to be consciously thinking as much as you can about why your 8 possible adversaries are saying the things they are. Perhaps it's a misconception, a mistake, or flat-out misdirection. And that's what you ultimately have to deduce for yourself.

---

I could wish you good luck, but it's not the most important thing. Keep your eyes peeled for the liars, that's how we'll win, Town. Scum, I won't even suggest how you to play the game, that's for you two to decide. You know you need to appear like a scumhunter, not act informed, and not be the lynch, but beyond that, there's a multitude of ways you could approach this between the two of you.

It's game time. As much as I'd like to say we're all in this together, well, that would be a lie.

~yabbaguy

[yabbaguy]

Other semantics:

- How to bold votes:

Code: Select all

[b]Vote: yabbaguy[/b]

or

Code: Select all

[vote]yabbaguy[/vote]

- You ought to state your gender right now for everyone's benefit, as scrambling gender pronouns is annoying. Until gender icons are installed on the forum again, I have no way to know, and don't like using the gender-neutral "their" for a pronoun.
- Get an avatar as soon as possible so that your posts stand out. Some people make a case that the

lack

of an avatar makes you stand out just as much... which I guess has merit, but if more than one person has the same bright idea, you ought to reconsider.

Things you might expect to see in-game:

L-1 claims- when someone is one vote off a lynch and someone threatens the hammer, the current norm is to let them claim and see if a powerclaim might be enough to dissuade the wagon, or at least let Cop results come out if applicable. I agree with this, and think it's a poor choice to hammer before a claim comes out at all.

Mislynch or Lose/Lynch or Lose (MyLo/LyLo)- We're nowhere near this point, but in case I die before then, I want to warn you that if Town outnumbers Mafia by only 2 or 1, Mafia can likely win with a mislynch (guaranteed if they mislynch in LyLo). That means they can pile on the wagon recklessly, which outs them as scum, but by then they will have won. Don't go blazing into those Days with a vote, or the Day might be done before you can blink.

[yabbaguy]

Adrien's the only familiar one to me, hi! kyle99's a name I've seen, but I've never talked to him.

Clarify on the fencesitting point: You're never going to be totally sure of a flip unless someone screams "LOOK WORLD, I'M MAFIA!", but at least take as firm a stance as possible. If you really are uncertain as to someone's alignment, that's fine, just try everything you can to make sure it's clear why you feel that way.

[yabbaguy]

Y'know, I've never seen a Mafia game where all the players called each other by name.

I'm intrigued.

[yabbaguy]

I would expect those votes not to count, besides. You'll probably have to redo once D1

[yabbaguy]

...actually starts.

WTF premature submit.

And that's called an Edit By Way of Post! (EBWOP)

[yabbaguy]

@montgomery: Actually, it's just

ongoing

games. Past games can and have many a time been used as a scumhunting means.

Vote: tanstalas

, only semi-random. How do you suppose RVS is going to invoke reactions from people at this point in the game?

@Dekes: Why did you use a randomizer to random vote?

[yabbaguy]

Deadline?

I think it's a bit too far off to be worried about yet. It's page two and the threads been up for all of...2 days?

[yabbaguy]

@Dekes-43:

To be honest, it was about 70% laziness and 30% because I thought it would be kind of fitting to use random.org to determine a random vote.
So why is your vote on tanstalas only semi-random? All I've seen from him so far since Day 1 is an RVS vote based on gender issues and an advertizing of an online game. Nothing that would strike me as suspicious. Care to elaborate?

Mm, it was prior to D1, but remember him stating that RVS was going to get people talking? I wanted to check on what he meant by that, as I really have yet to see RVS actually produce a reaction. I'd argue that I started the game due to the fact that I questioned a stance.

If I'm settling for a randomizer, the game isn't going to start. Simple.

@Tux-44:

Is this Scum trying to protect Scum?

I'm puzzled how you arrive at that conclusion so hastily. As Adrien says, it could be scum-town, but YES, town-town defending exists. I'll admit it's typically ill-advised, but cross-defending is not necessarily a scumtell.

@tan-46:

Like I said - I'm still a mafia newbie, all the games I've seen throw joke votes around at the start, if anything it makes people more likely to throw a vote out themselves so we know they are actually here and not lurking. Also sometimes late game when we start to find out who scum is the joke votes at the start may give a clue on who else is scum.

Anything to get people posting is not a bad thing, in my opinion. And limited mafia experience.

I think you're overvaluing RVS though. I've yet to see a game where random votes are referred back to. If anything, I claim I started the game when I questioned the stance. That's how I like to do it, pick an argument of trivial sorts, catch a reaction, and see what I get.

I voted you semi-randomly because I'm just trying to check up on a stance that I really find questionable. I don't think RVS is a good way to start scumhunting. But I see where you're coming from now. (answers 48)

@Dekes-47:

This is actually town being curious. After reading tanstalas' posts so far you just got to be wondering why yabbaguy put a semi to his random vote (and he still hasn't given his reasoning on his vote so far). And this just might be a wee bit WIFOM-y, but a scum defednig his scumbuddy on a vote on the first day that has merely put him at L-3...even in a newbie game...I mean, c'mon, really?

And yes, I must say, I am a bit proud that my vote/reaction has moved us virtually out of the RVS

Like said, I contest it was my debating it that moved us out. And suggesting my explanation is

absent

is ridiculous.

Kyle's active lurking. Noted.

@Makeorbreak-50: Why in blazes are you still doing random voting? Crap has happened! Say stuff!

She's active lurking, too.

Active lurking is defined as someone who adds posts to the thread, but not necessarily content, in other words, it's just filler. I contest these are cases since kyle posted just to make a pointless remark on a username and Makeorbreak is making random votes after content has been generated.

It's an active display of not scumhunting, which is scummy to a degree.

@montgomery-51: Can you really discern anything from that? Also, remember that cross-voting is not always OMGUS, although they are random votes, so I can see what you mean.

@Dekes-53: I started to post, but then got tired. I'm not lurking.

Now the explanation's there. I start trivial arguments on purpose by semi-random voting in order to set off the fireworks that any Mafia game needs to begin. That simple.

@Adrien-54: That has me on edge. It feels a lot like you're putting a LOT of faith in me being Town whilst the rest of the game (inaccurately) is pegging me initially as scummy. I don't think the FoS has valid reasoning whatsoever.

Unvote, Vote: kyle99

for blatant active lurking.

[yabbaguy]

Tag on to @Adrien-54: Why settle for the FoS?

[yabbaguy]

@Adrien-59: I haven't been NK'd as IC once in the three games I've played, and being Mafia was only the reason 1 time out of 3. It's frankly just a reason that makes no sense.

@Tux-60: So the reaction's noted. It's worth flagging at least, but until a flip occurs one way or the other, that means nothing at this point.

[yabbaguy]

Right, that. I overlook questions sometimes. This is more my opinion, but dodging questions is NOT a scumtell because you can't verify whether it was a reading error (which it was) or whether it's them shirking it off.

Just about every other Newbie game I've seen states a deadline once the Day starts, so I'm slightly startled Jack isn't stating it up front, but that's just me and my old-style expectations. To suggest that I am opportunistic scum wanting to hurry the Day up is an absurd claim, I merely wanted to double-check on Jack.

It says clearly that the deadline is a fixed 3 weeks. There's categorically no way I could be negotiating anything about deadline terms.

@tan: WIFOM, I already explained in my first post, although it got turned into an adverb now. It's the looping logic pattern.

OMGUS - Oh My God You Suck, voting someone MERELY BECAUSE they voted you. If the retailiator has reasoning beyond "sucking", then it's not OMGUS.

[yabbaguy]

One sec...

[yabbaguy]

@Makeorbreak: All the suspicion really is active lurking.

But all we need you to do is to just say something about the game and we can get rolling again.

Such as:

- what you make of montgomery's idle OMGUS remark
- what you make of my stance on the RVS. Or others' stances
- who you actually find scummy, if anyone. I promise, nobody's 100% sure at this point. But can you at least offer a name and a nominal reason?

And others. The first two are more what stuck out to me, but you can definitely answer that latter point.

Since I can't hug you through the internet, how about you post content now instead?

(Better solution: Come back tomorrow, then post content? Again, emotional compromise can really blow a hole in your town image, so cooling off for a day really can do wonders if that's the case.)

[yabbaguy]

And that's why I Obama-rolled the thread, so that we don't get a sudden influx of "lynch the helpless victim who naively does AtE" and leading to an easy scum mislynch.

She could be Mafia. But you can't tell from that. You just can't.

[yabbaguy]

(quickpost)

Mafiascum Wiki's Commonly Used Abbreviations

Some of these are a tad obsolete/clunky, but those should help. But blah, why don't people read that darn post? Took me ages to write it when I first did. /:|

[yabbaguy]

So, how about Pride & Prejudice & Zombies?

Oh you.

Makorbreak needs to chill. Not really liking her play, but that could be just her taking stuff to personal.

VOTE: Makeorbreak
@Makeorbreak: Who's do you think is scum right now and what do you think of the game so far?

Blech. You're placing a vote whilst on the fence. Also, how do you manage to forget a game you've posted TWICE in? With the advent of subscriptions and bookmarks and fun crap like that, I don't see how you managed that.

Y'know, we're clearly hitting a wall here in terms of Makeorbreak, but I adamantly believe that this is sort of how she plans on going about the game. kyle fencesitting on her makes my mind spin though, and I think that's worthy of scrutiny. The only gripe I have is that him flipping one way or the other probably isn't that good of a clue to Makeorbreak's alignment. :\

@Beanman: Suspicions? You've sorta hinted at Makeorbreak, but your posting isn't terribly transparent. Help me out here.

[yabbaguy]

Unvote

Wah. I need to sort this out.

[yabbaguy]

Hey, "Melissa". Can you explain why your e-mail address suggests you're actually this guy? It's pretty clearly jobielovato@myspace.com according to the link I get when I rollover it.

Still analyzing.

[yabbaguy]

Roles are absolutely randomly distributed. It could very well be that we're all Town, or the scumpair could be within the experienced player conglomerate.

Totally null.

[yabbaguy]

EBWOP could very well be that all [us experienced players] are Town.

[yabbaguy]

kyle should go simply because his vote on MoB was on the fence. I mean, now his vote looks rather plausible and all considering Makeorbreak's gone wacko on us, but I never forget that when he did it, he did it over the weirdest set of reasons imaginable.

Y'know, I just want him to claim his role. I think he's actually at L-2 (so tan, you thought you were gonna hammer when it was L-3 ), but I don't want the hammer to happen until he claims anyway. So, I'll stay off for now. I'm actually turning thoughts over in my head as to whether or not I'd actually believe a powerclaim over a vanilla-claim, or whether I'd just stay pat on him. :\

I unvoted rapidly because I wanted to avoid a hasty hammer, which at the rate the game was going, I was deathly afraid was going to happen. I wanted to be able to step back and sort things out.

But yeah, I'm calling kyle as pushing a mislynch. Fingers crossed.

@Makeorbreak: It's not Survivor: Mafiascum; there is a

concrete right answer

as to who to eliminate. If a case on you is made, you, in all likelihood, have a way to fight back against it, since you supposedly know you're not Mafia.

Pageant queen speeches don't work.

Did you even read my first post?

[yabbaguy]

Yeah, I said something about the bookmarks and how it's hard to forget. Methinks that wasn't actually the case.

Not sure why one would lie in this situation though. :\

I don't like the fact that kyle's resorted to trivial technicalities to defend himself ("I have 1 content post and she has 0!"). It's not a matter of you comparing yourself to another, you lurked. Or maybe you really forgot. It's that simple.

@montgomery: Your last two posts suggest you just want to get rid of Makeorbreak just 'cause you find her annoying. You're actually falling into

the same mentality she is

, that we're trying to vote someone off the island just 'cause we hate them.

You... are finding her scummy, right?

[yabbaguy]

I'm noticing a great trend of dichotomy pushing, in other words, there's a lot of "if one person flips {role}, the other HAS to be scum."

I don't get how Adrien is implicated by these flips of kyle or MoB, or why they're being mentioned in the same sentence. And I think Beanman's to blame for planting this idea. Explain it please; ISO* would help here.

ISOlation- notice the drop down menus at the bottom of the page? Set the one that says All Users to the name of one person you want to read in isolation. A page with just their posts will be loaded. Feel free to refer to post numbers as ISO-5, ISO-6, assuming the posts are sorted Old -> New, which they are by default.

[yabbaguy]

EDT, you mean? I'm speaking as a guy from Massachusetts.

More later.

[yabbaguy]

First off, I wish I had made it clear that "reasoned OMGUS" is oxymoronic. I saw that going through Makeorbreak's iso.

@tan: I did explain my deadline query. I said that EVERY SINGLE OTHER NEWBIE GAME THAT I'VE SEEN OTHER THAN THIS ONE states the deadline up-front since it's mostly an ironclad 3 weeks. I was merely double-checking. Kind of a dick move to be double-checking the mod, but hey, I was just making sure he had it all under control. :\

Why are you dabbling into three suspects with only two Mafia in the game? Are you saying I'm a backup if one of the two is a mislynch?

@Bean: I believe Adrien's "NOT off the hook" remark, myself.

I don't think your implication is scummy contriving now, but I'm still going to disagree with it on the basis that Adrien could very well believe that kyle is scum, and if so, Makeorbreak is town. If that's the case, then Adrien has every right to operate on the assumption to suggest kyle is scum, then opt for MoB if kyle flips Vanilla. That's my take on it, as I've taken a similar approach myself, I'd argue.

@montgomery: Yuck. I really,

really

don't like that you've suddenly resorted to what appears to be a utility lynch of Makeorbreak, one where the lynch is solely used to get crazy shenanigans out of the game. Sure, she/he's erratic.

But is MoB Mafia?

I haven't heard you dwell on her scumtells all game, at best as of recently.

My vibe is that you're on for all the wrong reasons, which is scummy as well.

[yabbaguy]

Does everyone the kyle wagon really want to end the Day now? I don't. :\

[yabbaguy]

EBWOP II

on the kyle wagon?

[yabbaguy]

(quickpost) Post 0 is first.

More later.

[yabbaguy]

Also @204: For f's sake, more accurately. But yeah.

I love saying that in real life.

[yabbaguy]

Saved a draft of a post now, I'm tired and it's midnight now for me, a time when I promise myself I never post substantive content.

Sorry.

[yabbaguy]

Hammering now is criminal, even though I'm still inclined to believe kyle should eventually be the lynch. I still can't get past the fact that he cast that vote of Makeorbreak while on the fence. Makeorbreak has a lot of cloudiness around her, but I think kyle is quite obviously scummy because his rebuttal is what appears to me to be a floundering defense of MoB. Basically, all I get out of it is "I'm not lurking, she is!", which just doesn't ping like something a Townie would say. I would expect someone in his position to scumhunt more broadly, and instead, he winds up mostly looking at Makeorbreak through tunnel vision and basing all his tells off that. It feels like he's doing a lazy defense and trying to drag her down as a mislynch before he goes down.
Then again, I find myself in no position but to agree with the fact that keeping a player who is nothing but shenanigans until LyLo is a critical mistake. Aside from that, I think there are certain relationship tells that can be derived from a Town flip of MoB, such as kyle who put an awful vote on her while on the fence, and montgomery, whose case feels like something contrived. Depending on whether or not MoB gets one of the million hints we've been dropping all game, we might actually want to consider that more relationship tells can be derived from getting rid of the player with shenanigans. But again, while she's been active lurking, it could just be playstyle somehow. I need an actual scumtell before I can call her a good lynch.

@Makeorbreak: I demand you do a Player-by-Player analysis. That's basically where you go through and state as clearly as possible your stances on each player. I want to definitively see whether you think every player in the game is Town, Unsure, or Scummy and why. You're not going to be 100% sure on everyone, but you've gotta do something.

If you refuse to do this, I will consider it a scummy lack of cooperation with Town.

There. Concrete objective. Cue the awful username pun.

And I still want montgomery to explain why she finds Makeorbreak scummy before this Day ends. Being a troll isn't scummy.

[yabbaguy]

Beanman's listed twice, actually.

My advice- copypasta is a deliciously easy way to make sure name splicing doesn't happen.

[yabbaguy]

BTW, Adrien, your interpretation of kyle's ISO blends rather valid points he makes into all the rubbish he makes, such as Beanman's rather curious contradictory vote which doesn't stack in my mind. I'm always on edge when people interpret ISOs in a way that doesn't exactly tell the whole story.

('splain that vote better, Beanman? I'm not following you.)

[yabbaguy]

Oh, Jack's gonna get a headache contemplating that one.

But I think she wanted you to somehow put that case up for her since her account was broken. I think you did just that. I really think this should go with a warning and nothing more.

[yabbaguy]

The reason I'm suspecting but not voting is because I don't want the Day to end. My last post demanded that montgomery and Makeorbreak (okay, yeah, she did post content out of thread, *sigh*), so to then also place a vote which at the rate we're going could easily spell the end of Day 1 would be idiocy.

Not fencesitting.

[yabbaguy]

All Beanman quotes.

He accuses kyle of active lurking only 29 posts into game begin. Seriously. 29 posts... That just over a page people. Kyle posted a total of 2 times in the period of between being called active lurker by yabba and game start. His first post was RVS. His 2nd post, stating he was gonna abbreviate a person's name.(THIS IS NOT ACTIVE LURKING)

The definition of active lurking is not solely quantitative, although sometimes you can consider the case amplified with prolonged lack of content. The fact of the matter is that carnage was starting to go down with the random votes dwindling away in favor of actual shenanigans. Instead, kyle bypassed it all with a fluffy remark. That absolutely qualifies, as it shows a lack of desire to scumhunt and set off what I like to call the pyrotechnics of the game, getting all the arguments and all these reactions to occur in the thread.

Part of the reason I voted him in the first place was actually pressure. With that, I never intended to lynch him straightaway, nor did I fear that a wagon would be formed so quickly that such a lynch would occur. But I was saying to him, "hey, I see you posting without making any remarks on things that have happened already; you're not scumhunting." That's what the point of the vote was.

yabba says he's sure. he has stated kyle should be todays lynch. Which means he's sure that kyle is mafia, yet didn't kill him, didn't kill him when he had the chance, and isn't voting him now when kyle is L-3. WTF? What I think, is that he doesn't want to be on the bandwagon that kills kyle, because he know's that kyle's inno. He is distancing himself from the BW so that he's not a suspect come day 2, when kyles eventual inno appears to all.

Okay, one quote from me:

And I still want montgomery to explain why she finds Makeorbreak scummy before this Day ends. Being a troll isn't scummy.

I said this outright. I said very clearly that I don't want to end this Day until I have a good handle on everyone who's irking me. And the fact that montgomery

still

isn't saying why Makeorbreak was

scummy

and not

a troll

is really, really frustrating. She's advocating for nothing more than a policy lynch without directly acknowledging the fact.

Why is this relevant? Voting is double-edged, it says "this person is scummy", but it also says "I'm ready to end the Day". If I ended this Day, I wouldn't get the answer to this nagging problem with montgomery, and we'd have lynched without me being really sure of Makeorbreak's alignment, which means my vote would be suboptimal. I still think she's being pegged as a mislynch at this point. But the thing is, I'm not *entirely* sure with all these shenanigans from her. I want montgomery and the slot of Makeorbreak to be figured out before I end this Day. I said I was sure of kyle simply because, at the rate we were going, I felt it most likely. I said that rather candidly.

Frankly, I'm very afraid that the pace of this game is being taken a bit too fast (for my liking anyway), and if I were to vote, it puts that suboptimal scenario that much closer to occurring. I don't want that. I don't think all the facts are being stacked up clearly.

I'm sorry that you got so excited thinking you solved it and are ready to start your propaganda campaign to get me hung, I've been there before, but you're dead wrong. I am not fencesitting. I am not distancing from a wagon.

And I still am not going to vote, esp. with the force-replace.

@Tux: What does more pressure on kyle accomplish?

[yabbaguy]

Makorbreak needs to chill.

Not really

liking her play, but

that could be

just her taking stuff to personal.

VOTE: Makeorbreak

Look at all that wishy-washy malarkey I emphasized. That is CATEGORICALLY fence-sitting.

(Tux, I'll reply in a few minutes)

[yabbaguy]

Voting while fence-sitting is still fence-sitting, Beanman. It's worse than fence-sitting, really, he never says I'm as-sure-as-can-be that Makeorbreak is scum.

Words need to be as equally decisive as a vote in order for it to be considered valid and not scum-motivated. The vote and the sentiment don't stack.

[yabbaguy]

@Tux: If you're happy to end the Day, then it's your vote and you swing it. That's fine.

It sounded to me though that you wanted pressure, which to me suggests that you believe kyle will behave differently in response to it even if he believes your vote is valid (if he didn't, he'd lash out, I'm sure). I don't think that's the case.

[yabbaguy]

Requirement for vote: you need to be sure MoB's plausibly scummy as a result of something she's done.

kyle was on the fence about her being scummy from his sentiment. He's not sure.

kyle, not being entirely sure about MoB's scumminess, voted anyway, thus not satisfying said requirement. Scummy.

It's the facts, man.

[yabbaguy]

Now my mind hurts, pacman. You didn't even take a stance on kyle, put a slight FoS on montgomery, you get a town-ish vibe from Tux, and quite a few of your other reads are :BONK:.

:boggle:

[yabbaguy]

Just to make that clear, that was an outright scummy player-by-player from pacman.

[yabbaguy]

Yes please. But later, I need to get back to work.

[yabbaguy]

I owe a post. Apologies for not posting that PBPA I said I was going to get to.

[yabbaguy]

All quotes Pacman.

AdrienC: Contributing, always throwing pressure, attacked MoB, then kyle, then MoB, then the mystery PM appears. 57 posts. Result: uncertain (not very scummy, but not enough town-ish).

Opaque why that is. Offers no analysis.

Beanman: Also a good discussion fueler. Attacked MoB and kyle for not contributing, then Dekes for bandwagoning kyle when he (kyle) started contributing... then L-1's kyle to test Adrien's read, then MoB again. When PM trouble appears, starts attacking yabba. 39 posts. Overall read: uncertain, slightly town-ish.

Slightly = on the fence. Yeah, you can have a couple of those. Again though, it's more information and not you analyzing.

Dekes: first tried so stay away from kyle-MoB stuff, then goes for kyle (and Bean attacks him), then for MoB, unvotes waiting for replacement. 20 posts. General read: too little information to take a stance.

k.

kyle: comes back after 2-day absence (3 days into the game...). Questions on MoB. Sincerely, I don't find the active lurking there (although he isn't that great in content...). Then under pressure, roleclaims, blah, blah, blah. 23 posts. Overview: Not particularly scummy, but he leaned way too much on the rival wagon, and that's somewhat scummy to me...

Stance is very, very wishy washy. How the hell does "not particularly scummy" come up yet a "somewhat scummy" action has been stated without really stating anything that's pro-Town on him? Why not just say scummy?

montgomery: RVS, then she is busy. Comes back, then attacks MoB for her AtE, and starts stating why MoB is a troll, before getting again busy. I understand her getting busy, but her contrubution has been way too little, and she hasn't say anything helping the game to move forward clearly. 14 posts. I'm not sure if I should call this scummy or just busy+inexperience, but I don't like it. Slight FoS: montgomery

At least there's analysis in this one. But geez, this is the only one you state you are outright suspicious of. Why only slight considering you haven't given stronger FoS' to anyone else in the game?

tanstalas: RVS, discusses about its importance. Then, when kyle is BW'd, considers hammering. Hmm... Unvotes kyle, considers voting her, then e-mail thingy appears. 26 posts. Overall: No particular read from him.

What do you make of the hammer? What are the scummy and townie attractions pulling on your view of him?

Tuxhedoh: Not many posts, but many of them with lots of content. 24 posts. Read: town-ish.

Opaque.

yabbaguy: Trying to get a conciliatory attitude, trying to prevent the game from falling into a "kyle or MoB" issue. 41 posts. Read: none either.

Translucent at best.

What also irks me is that despite the fact you've been here longer than me, you're basing scumtells off of the friggin' post scoreboard. Why is this even included in your reads of everyone? It says absolutely nothing as a standalone, considering I've made quite a handful of "Sorry, I owe a post." posts during the game.

Let's get the reply from you before I go any further. My overall impression from the reread is that you're fence-sitting scum. This is a textbook case of someone who really has a stance on what alignment someone is, yet is trying to keep doors open by rooting up certain scummy actions they've done that could potentially be worth turning around on.

In some cases, it's just Information Instead of Analysis, capitalized because it's a site-recognized tell. That's the equivalent of saying a lot, and yet baselessly taking a stand.

[yabbaguy]

Contradicting much?

This is me and my semantics, but I'm on a mission to eradicate the "_____ much?" cliché from the site. It's just obnoxious and overused, IMO. :\

[yabbaguy]

Parenthetical statements are annoying (Yes, I do them myself but still...), so if we could cut down on them (for my sake of readability), that'd be great (not that I want to mess you up or anything, it's just my preference).

Gimme a sec here... I'm at work again, so this may take a while, esp. with the new wagons. :\

[yabbaguy]

I still would like to believe that Beanman is town just for not being afraid to take these strong stances, for example how obvtown he believes kyle to be despite that he's a top wagon, but this is beginning to get a bit ridiculous how many players he's looked at believing they have a scummy mindset. Apparently you misrepped Dekes on half the ISO points, which tends to happen a lot with ISO summaries like that, too.

It's innocent until proven guilty. There's only two scum. Who are they

really

?

The other thing I'm really afraid of is that we're succumbing to a recency effect. We haven't seen kyle, montgomery, or whoever may be about to replace them post in a while. I still think one or both of them are scum.

Preview Edit: Beanman, you're trying to get scum lynched. If you're voting yourself, you're voting to lynch (from your vantage) obvtown. That's idiocy and potentially an autoloss for being anti-win condition if you continually insist on being hammered.

[yabbaguy]

...he says with the Ellipses of Uncertainty.

Who's scum? Your vote needs to be on Mafia.

ludacris

Wrong spelling. America's bad influences are taking over.

[yabbaguy]

Ah, here it is:

4- Play to your win condition. Remember, you win EVEN IF YOU DIE. That therefore means you need to be consistently trying to get your antagonists eliminated. Scum outing scumbuddies can and has force-abandonned a game and probably will get you permabanned from the site. As Town, you're trying to vote for Mafia. Selfvoting and giving up is... well... anti-town, because you know for fact that the lynch is going to be on someone who's pro-town. That's not gonna win you the game.

[yabbaguy]

Ellipses of Uncertainty.

I am so fucking right and you know it. Unvote faster please.

[yabbaguy]

Beanman is obvtown, btw.

[yabbaguy]

Who's scum, Adrien?

[yabbaguy]

^Scum or no, I agree with that. Let's let the game cool down a bit.

[yabbaguy]

with Dekes. Not sure why I ignored the force-preview.

[yabbaguy]

Reasoned OMGUS is oxymoronic.

[yabbaguy]

Of course.

[yabbaguy]

Adrien, your case on Cliquey sucks. I don't like the Appeal to Statistics meself, but calling it

meta

is wrong. It's just statistics gobbledygook.

[yabbaguy]

Just a question for a few people and I should be ready to Player-by-Player the game.

@Dekes: Why did you consider Beanman scummy when he self-voted?
@Beanman: Why did you think self-voting was going to help the Town?
@Cliquey: Why Appeal to Statistics?
@Adrien: Is Cliquey scummy Y/N?

I'd also like McG and Tux to post crap, and Cliquey says a full-thrusters Dekes case is en route. I likely won't wait for all this to show up before PLBPLAing (Warning: not a common MS acronym) the crap out of the game.

[yabbaguy]

Code: Select all

*-------------------*
|NO MOD WIFOM PLEASE|
*-------------------*
         ||          

I'm making the player-by-player as we speak, but I really think McGriddle needs to get a post down before I do.

@Cliquey: Why in blazes would you post something as an effectively unaligned player?

[yabbaguy]

Dekes

Post 163: Now this is interesting in a scummy way- Dekes dichotomizes the lynch here between MoB and kyle99. I don’t think it was completely clear cut it was going to be one of them, and it certainly isn’t now.
Post 302: Takes a swing at montgomery while her wagon’s empty! Plus point for him if she flips scum.
Post 362: Why is he still called scummy?

Currently the man of attention right now, but I still think there are aspects about him that are not being looked well into, and the attacks on him, while good, are not wholly justifiable. I think there are multiple instances where he's taken a strong stance, and I don't think it's been solely activity hunting at all. While lurker hunting for sure isn't a standalone, to call him someone who is doing just that is inaccurate.

Beanman

Post 107: Opts to put MoB, kyle, and Dekes on his list.
Post 144: A puzzling Makeorbreak vote, pressure, voting to lynch, what?
Post 173: I still miss the Adrien implication here.
Post 207: Abruptly says that there’s no f’ing way kyle is scum plz thx. I like people who take strong stances like this, notwithstanding their accuracy.
Post 226: kyle’s face in reply to this is my face, too.
Post 285+288: Ellipses of Uncertainty strike again! It’s clear he’s town that’s tunnelvisioning.
Post 346: Takes a shot at Dekes now. He’s swapped quite a few times over the course of the game.
Post 366: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE SELF-VOTE!!!
Post 379: Yeah, you said in the 100s that IC advice was good stuff. CLEARLY emotional compromise.
Post 383: Comes round and swings at Dekes. I can understand it somewhat, but I still think Dekes has a point with the fact that he got majorly misrepped. I don’t blame him. But I don’t think Bean’s scum either.

What a character Beanman's been the whole game. I don't think his sense of scumhunting discipline is quite there yet; he certainly tries to solve the puzzle way too many times. But at least he's not afraid to take the big stances. I'm really not sure why the thought of me being scum is still polluting his mind though, but certainly his emotional compromise indicates that he's almost assuredly a town-aligned who's only guilty of losing his mind.

montgomery

McGriddle

Post 51: Ew. The idle “Interesting, that’s OMGUS” remark really stings of scum trying to idly lay down a weak suspicion without garnering attention. This is done at Makeorbreak.
Post 98: Takes a swing at MoB albeit lightly (no troll remarks yet), and a lighter jab at Adrien and Bean.
Post 158: Takes another whack at MoB and Adrien
Post 182: Way off the mark. Doesn’t heed pleas to find MoB scummy and not a troll.

Massively under the radar the whole time, and McGriddle needs to skedaddle to rectify this. Her initial remarks on Makeorbreak were good, but then degenerated into just "trolling trolling trolling" without any new content being added to the game. Add the fact that she sprinkles the OMGUS speculation and lightly dabbles on Adrien, and I think there's definitely a connection between the two.

Yeah, I said Adrien's name. Shoot me.

tanstalas

Post 146: Wants to drop hammer on kyle and votes when he realizes it’s only L-2.
Post 200: Same shtick, pegs MoB and kyle as the Big 2. They’re not together. Try again.
Post 249: Why an unvote here? /:|
Post 336: Responds to lurking inquiries with a player-by-player.
Post 449: Boggling. HoS on Beanman, yet has kyle and montgomery running up front. With two scum, this is puzzling.
Post 496: Ew on hating the attitude of all things, but renounces Dekes as a good wagon.

A guy I now personally loathe and despise for being a Habs fan (go Bruins!), tanstalas certainly is a squirmy character whose alignment I really can't pin down. He's put kyle and MoB at the top of his list at one point, which makes no sense, and then the rest of his scumhunting ideology is like a mad scientist's experiment, there's a good idea twisted with kind of sub-ideal reason much like in 449 and 496. I'm speculative on him.

Makeorbreak

Pacman

Post 72: Cue shenanigans.
Post 87: Tosses Dekes out as a scum suspect, with massive uncertainty.
Post 115: Hollow kyle vote.
Post 298: There’s the reread I squawked at. To my credit though, I hadn’t any idea that pacman was recovering from Mafia deprivation, so I can see why he didn’t embellish these as much. I still think it wasn’t terribly helpful though.

Yeah, I called Beanman as losing his mind before I got to this one, but I still adamantly believe that Makeorbreak was being pushed as a mislynch when her wagon was being driven up. I know I initially said that Pacman was someone whose reread I could vomit at, and I still could, but I don't find it terribly scummy anymore. I think frankly that Makeorbreak hasn't committed any concrete scumtells and is only guilty of being an imbecile. Y'know, montgomery's potentially right, she may be a troll. But whatever.

Pacman's posting is starting to wither away and adopt Ellipses of Uncertainty. WAKE UP!

Tuxhedoh

Post 44: “Is this scum protecting scum?” Presumptuous a bit, but not terribly scummy.

A pretty blank read here. The thing is though, I think there's an aspect of him that genuinely wants to be pro-Town, so I'm still leaning that way. I do wish he'd wake up and at least try to post as he goes. Do what you gotta do.

kyle99

Cliquey

Post 97: I still find his vote of MoB here categorically fencesitting. I don’t know how you can slice it any other way.
Post 153: The issue is that we thought he was lying about forgetting the game. That’s the thing that irks me. 2) in particular is zooming in way too close.
Post 247: Certainly we can dispense with the active lurking point with this.
Post 416: AtS for no reason. *sigh*
Post 430: Actually, no, I don’t buy into the future-tense scumtell here. I think looking ahead at which lynch is best in terms of analyzing relationships is fine. Did you see something else?
Post 438: No. Scum replace out, too.
Post 470: Whoosh comes the case on Dekes. It’s actually pretty good, but I remember him putting a vote on a novel wagon, montgomery. I think he has taken novel stances through the game, so I wouldn’t say that’s true at all. Also, points out he did do the AtS before getting the role PM (or am I misreading that?)
Post 483: Dekes is being misrepped though.

kyle certainly didn't do any favors, but Cliquey has certainly done wonders for the slot. What still is nagging my brain is that he offered up a useless appeal to statistics which apparently *was* done as an aligned player, and his Dekes case isn't entirely on the mark. I think going after the points in that bulleted list of his accomplishments was strawmanning as even he didn't list everything he had done.

I'm gonna guess Town though. I think the motivation's in the right place.

Adrien C

Post 54: Poor reasoning for the FoS on Dekes. “Not nice that you’re voting the IC” is really, really bad.
Post 59: Swings back around a post later and votes Makeorbreak.
Post 121: Stabs at both Makeorbreak and kyle simultaneously. They’re clearly not buddies. Try again.
Post 233: Doesn’t swing the hammer! I think he’s harped on the issue quite a bit and yet wouldn’t put that last vote down. Notwithstanding that I didn’t want the Day to end there, he implied he did, and yet he didn’t.
Post 254: Why must you be the hammer?
Post 419: Calls it biased meta. It’s statistics.

And here's the other one I'm calling scum. montgomery's opted for soft suspicions of him on occasion, and I think between her scumminess and his refusal to throw hammers when he has the chance is something that's really pointing at him flipping red. I think the mod WIFOM of telling him to not telling me he assuredly won't do a doc fakeclaim is a speculative factor tilting his way.

Which one I pursue first is up in the air for me. I'll opt for montgomery's slot since I'm more certain on that tell than Adrien's.

Vote: McGriddle

I could opt for Adrien if we find it more informative.

[yabbaguy]

Vote: McGriddle

again.

You can't vote twice, as much as you may want to.

[yabbaguy]

So mod's obv lying.

Who are the other two liars?

Lying? Ouch. I much prefer, "Editing reality so that previous statement no longer apply."

[yabbaguy]

But I didn't want to hammer kyle at that moment (THAT'S VERY, VERY DIFFERENT from saying that someone thinks he should

eventually

be the lynch). Adrien apparently did.

I decided to take Abraham Lincoln's approach and wrote an angry rant on you, then discarded it. Can we at least recognize that PBPA took me two hours to make? Thanks.

[yabbaguy]

Here, Adrien is pretty much ready to do it, I contest. What's baffling to look at through a Town lens is the fact that he had multiple opportunities to do so, yet I never conclusively saw Adrien say "never mind, I won't". I don't know why, but Adrien effectively said "I'm gonna hammer, I'm gonna hammer", and then never did or dwelled on the fact he did.

Granted there was interference from the unvoting that happened between his remark and the post from me he was apparently waiting for, but when it comes around to Makeorbreak, he insists on being

specifically

the hammer vote.

From the other half, montgomery, she's swinging full force at Makeorbreak, although still wants to her lynch her just because she's a troll (useless utility lynch) and puts Adrien in her suspicions. Methinks that this suspicion is scum bussing. Adrien hasn't dwelled on mont all game which makes it... plausible, maybe doesn't amplify it, but still. Hence, my top two.

It's simple fact, Beanman. I'm really, REALLY pissed off at the fact that you're not looking at me with a perspective other than "WTF the IC is full of bullshit" without even considering this as potentially true. You are making rash assumptions that I'm pushing obvtown, and it's thoroughly baffling and frustrating.

Responding to McG's squawking in just a bit.

[yabbaguy]

McGriddle, your predecessor started off with an okay reason on Makeorbreak, and then degenerated into nothing more than "she's trolling". I asked

her

repeatedly whether or not she found Makeorbreak

scummy

and I never got the answer to that question.

Some scum love nothing more than to safely test an idea by Asking the Audience with a "Does this seem scummy to you?" remark. When montgomery puts down the dangling OMGUS remark, it piqued my interest because it's basically someone who points out that something is potentially suspicious but doesn't want to stand up and be opinionated about it. If it works, great. If it doesn't, move on.

There was little from montgomery, yes. Hence why the point-by-point in the player-by-player for the slot was tiny.

[yabbaguy]

Someone, Adrien or otherwise, break down what information could be gained from Dekes' flip.

[yabbaguy]

But Dekes isn't scum.

Whoever made up the word semi-buddying to describe my stance should be lynched instantly- OH WAIT.

[yabbaguy]

y

abba.

Everything I say is "in my opinion". This is severe scum opportunism that you're now saying that I somehow have inside knowledge just because I'm the one with the stones to adamantly say that Dekes is not scum.

You get people who say "oh, obvtown" the whole time as Town. Totally null.

[yabbaguy]

Don't care. You're declaring me a suspicious player.

FoS does NOT mean half-assed suspicion, contrary to popular belief.

[yabbaguy]

Real quick: L-1 claiming is technically supposed to happen when someone off the wagon threatens to hammer.

More later, I gotta give a presentation at work in a few minutes.

[yabbaguy]

Tux was off the wagon and asked for it. I don't think I even posted in the interim.

Fact check says I win.

[yabbaguy]

Nuclear holocaust is bad enough. We have no need of ghosts as well.

[yabbaguy]

I KNEW IT WAS TANS AND PAC!!! AGHHHHHHHHHHHHK;ALSDNF;LKANSDF;LFINK.

Compiling thoughts.

[yabbaguy]

Brilliant play to piss Bean off, even though that wasn't the intent.

[yabbaguy]

Dekes beat me posting the Dead Lounge, but yeah, read that.

Lessons Learned is the name of my favorite thing to do once the game ends. Here's a list of things I found most important and might help you in future games.

I've brought up one or more points that people disagree with in past editions of this, so absolutely feel free to debate these if you have another vantage point.

Imbeciles Can Be Scum, Too.

That one's aimed at myself. I was guilty of giving Makeorbreak the benefit of the doubt far too much, when in fact, dispensing with the shenanigans was the right way to go.

There's not a lot I can embellish this point, just the fact that I need to keep a more open mind about stuff like this.

You've Gotta Keep Scumhunting, Keep It Going!

This is all montgomery's points:

I honestly think that Make is a troll. First off she says she is 17 in game but her profile states 19 and then she continues to make inane chatter and remarks about how she is crying with nothing to set it off. I'm not sure if MS has much of a trolling problem but it seems very suspicious.

Makeorbreak isn't an "obviously erractic" player, they are an obvious troll.

For the record I think MOB emailing is another act of trolling, the exact same thing happened to me last game and instead of resorting to emailing a fellow member of the game, I waited.

None of it actually explained

why

we should lynch Makeorbreak beyond her obnoxiousness, and that's what garnered incorrect suspicion from me and some others. This is potentially active lurking- you have to consistently prove that you are actively believing that MoB is the best choice.

Watch Out! Don't Sound Informed!

Well, if she gets modkilled then we have one less person to worry about

tans, you celebrated that as if you knew she was going to flip scum if she got modkilled. She is scum. That tipped me off on D3 because it sounded too much like you were exceptionally happy to see her go. I don't even recall you "finding her scummy" at any point before then.

Don't "Solve The Puzzle" Too Many Times

The frustrating thing with Beanman that ultimately proved to frustrate himself at one point was the fact that he tried to say "You are absolutely 100% obvscum" to too many people, as Cliquey pointed out. The problem is is that you run the risk of incurring scumminess if you go about it in that way because it amplifies the vote-hopping scumtell.

How to fix this is hard even for me to explain- but I think it ultimately comes down to making sure you've genuinely looked at all the options. Here's another...

Relationship Tells Don't Mean Jack Until There's a Flip- Don't Tunnelvision!

I'm pointing out Beanman again here because he was the led to the conclusion that Cliquey was scum

because he was ripping down his case on McGriddle.

But consider- what if one or both is Town? I think once Bean got deadset on the idea that McGriddle was scum before the flip even came, he twisted himself into knots trying to pick up relationships with people who hadn't flipped yet, and was led to believe Cliquey was scum because he was cross-defending.

That's another thing. Some people make the asinine statement "Your defense of [name] is noted," but it's nothing more than BS considering that they may be trying to add reason.

You're Town. Why The Hell Are You Voting Obvtown to Be Lynched?

Just don't do it.

When Doing Player-By-Players, Actually Take Stances!

I walked away from this suspicion for whatever reason, but pacman actually did a sub-par job of doing that player-by-player. It was really cloudy how exactly he felt about everyone in the game alignment-wise (supposedly). You actually have to take stances and make it clear what alignment you believe they are (again, supposedly). It pissed me off to no end that Beanman called my player-by-player a piece of shit, because I thought I did the best analysis ever by clearly showing how I felt about everyone, or stating why I wasn't sure of certain people.

Squabbling Is Distracting And Fosters Lurking!

When arguments tend to get to the point "no you're wrong, no you're wrong", you're cluttering the thread. tanstalas was mega-lurking through out the majority of D3 and nobody batted an eye in his direction because they were too tangled up in their hubris trying to prove that they're the best player and trying to get their opponent lynched. It's a team game FFS. Don't drag your teammates down by distracting them with white noise arguments that don't accomplish scumhunting. If you've made your point, that's it. You don't have to dive into every sentence and feel compelled to call every single damned post scummy. We get the hint.

Cliquey, I'm upset that you degenerated to that level. Come on, you're a groupie from the C7 days. Show them the right way.

Don't Chew The Replacement Out!

Why did Fenhl not get a chance to talk? Replacement catch-up posts are extremely valuable as they provide a fresh vantage. You squandered the chance.

---

Overall, I'd say that this game went to shit because everyone got tangled up in their own selfish pride. Beanman, pacman's insult was like throwing a

pillow

at you. It kinda stings, but you've gotta get over the fact that it wasn't seriously hurtful and throw the pillow back like you were before. You basically became a crybaby at that point.

Jack, I... there's a bit to be said for your modding. I would not edit in flavor commentary in players' posts as it runs the risk of being mod WIFOM, and you need to de-emphasize the ruleset. Making the joking rule 18 was pointless, and the "Rule 5 triggers Rule 2 and therefore triggers Rule 1" thing, likewise. If you're trying to cut game discussion before D1 starts, I'd do PM confirms. I'm sure that "no font craziness" rule is going out the window too as it's A) hypocritical to the fact that you yourself post in blue/red at all times in all threads and B) is too strict and wasn't adhered to.

Cool beans on the flavor though.

Yeah, I'm a bit ticked that I'm getting an unearned loss if it isn't evident. But at least there's a lot to be learned from this. The issue of white noise:content is definitely one that comes out in a lot of threads, and this is a shining example of why a severely skewed ratio towards white noise can kill a game. Again, debate encouraged (but PLEASEPLEASEPLEASE don't make it a flame war).

Beanman, I don't know if you're going to play any more games after this- but you need to not ruin it if you're ticked off at someone. I think your denial is false, I think you were emotionally compromised and that damned you. If you can't handle such an environment where people can and will insult you lightly at times and try to consistently rip you down (which is the point of debating!), I'm going to bluntly suggest you quit Mafia.

[yabbaguy]

You're Town. Why The Hell Are You Voting Obvtown to Be Lynched?

Just don't do it.

[yabbaguy]

You did provoke him, Cliquey. Yes, he was bad, but you adding to the fire hurt the game too.

[yabbaguy]

^This is true. I missed that point.

Yeah, I didn't enough credit to tans for working with the wacko for the majority of D1. Well done.

[yabbaguy]

Because the streak can be broken at any time.

DUH.

[yabbaguy]

The variables are independent Cliquey, each of your previous games had a setup that was independently randomized from this one. It's the difference between experimental probability and theoretical probability. Experimentally (based on past "trials"), there is a 100% chance that you will replace into a pro-Town slot because you've yet to be scum. BUT theoretically, which is ultimately what matters, you have 22.22...% chance of being scum in every game. The inevitable is that you will eventually replace into a game and you will be scum. By then, those former statistics will be non-indicative of your true alignment.

If I flip a coin 4 times and they all land on heads, what's the odds of me flipping a fifth head? Please note that at the beginning of this set of trials, there was a 1/32 chance of flipping 5 heads.

Jack, if anything, I find these games most amusing. It's kinda why people like to watch Big Brother, the fact that people are making an environment into a shithole, and that actually makes the experience more interesting. But not everyone likes reality shows for precisely this reason, so I see what you mean.

[yabbaguy]

Games can be drawn, sometimes a losing-draw.

And yeah, it's 1/2.

[yabbaguy]

More likely: his birthday in DDMMYY format.

[yabbaguy]

Replacements =/= random, ergo you can use replacing as a tell. Being replaced is something that is more likely to happen to a town role-slot.

AHA. That's the snagging point in the debate.

No, that's wrong. Scum can get bored or have life kick them as the ass, and the latter I suspect happened to kyle as it could to anyone. I used to take the vantage of people replacing out being a towntell, but that's really not verifiable.

[yabbaguy]

Well I mean, if any one random player in a 9P setup replaces out, odds are 77.77...% that they're Town. So yeah, it's more likely. But esp. in a Newbie game, I bet you the statistic holds to about that number, not higher if it were a towntell like you claim.