Newbie 988-Apocalypse(Over)-Scum win

[Cliquey]

Pac, other people brought it up more than I did. And why shouldn't I stubbornly cling to numbers

that are correct

?

[yabbaguy]

Because the streak can be broken at any time.

DUH.

[pacman281292]

Pac, other people brought it up more than I did. And why shouldn't I stubbornly cling to numbers

that are correct

?

Because they're just numbers. They can't be used as argument.
Also what yabba said

[Beanman]

Cliquey being wrong about something.... Nothing new to see here...

[Adrien C]

We're all gonna be wrong sometimes, lol.

[Jackabomb]

Excuse me, but has anyone noticed that I haven't declared the game over yet? Dead people are supposed to stay dead until then.
Well, I just got up, my little brothers trashed my room so I had to clean it. Two pages were filled and the game ended in my absence. So, my apologies if you were expecting a little bit more out of this final post.

The scum, tanstalas and pacman, killed beanman and won.

Bottom-line: If you were on beanman's side, you lose.

Vote count 3.3
Pacman-

;

Tanstalas-

;

Cliquey-

;

Beanman-

Pacman, Beanman, Tanstalas;

Fenhl-

;

Not voting-

Cliquey, Fehnl;

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch or no lynch.
18 days until deadline.

Good job scum, congratulations on your perfect win. Sorry about modding mistakes, scum, feel free to share your chat if you wish. This game is now over. Farewell and goodbye, I might remember a few of you if I see you.(I don't carry much sentimentality for a game where half the original players flaked out and scum won via enemy self-hammer in lylo. Or any game fore that matter.) Live happy lives, live long and prosper, yada yada yada.

[Fenhl]

I didn't vote for beanman: tanstalas did, but whatever.

[Cliquey]

Pac, other people brought it up more than I did. And why shouldn't I stubbornly cling to numbers

that are correct

?

Because they're just numbers. They can't be used as argument.
Also what yabba said

WHAT?

They're numbers that show a specific relationship.

If you remember, the statistics show that replacements (from people who lurked out, not from people who were forced out, we have too small a sample size to even look at that) were more likely to be town than random. Oh wait, that was true 3 out of 3 times in this game HUrrrrrrrrr numbers hard me no understand math, scared numbers.

How was I wrong?

I have 2 more games to add, this and another to my statistics.... I think 7 replacements, 1 scum replacement. The numbers are accurate.

Censored, Bean. During the game I hardly insulted you, and it isn't really worth tearing into you after the game, blowing it should hurt more than anything I can say. But seriously, if you're going to argue, stop just being your fingers in your ears and screaming. That is not an argument. If you want to show my statistical analysis wrong, show me some numbers of your own.


You really need to study fallacy, statistics, arguing, common sense...

I may be a dick, but I have some semblance of logic.

[Beanman]

Do you even know the definition of Insult? I would check it out, you'll find your wrong again...

[Cliquey]

Yes, bean. When I'm saying you're arguments are akin to flatulence, that is not talking about you. That is talking about your arguments.

That is not an insult to you, the fact that you think it is is really sad. Like I said, you really need to develop some common mafia grasp.

[yabbaguy]

The variables are independent Cliquey, each of your previous games had a setup that was independently randomized from this one. It's the difference between experimental probability and theoretical probability. Experimentally (based on past "trials"), there is a 100% chance that you will replace into a pro-Town slot because you've yet to be scum. BUT theoretically, which is ultimately what matters, you have 22.22...% chance of being scum in every game. The inevitable is that you will eventually replace into a game and you will be scum. By then, those former statistics will be non-indicative of your true alignment.

If I flip a coin 4 times and they all land on heads, what's the odds of me flipping a fifth head? Please note that at the beginning of this set of trials, there was a 1/32 chance of flipping 5 heads.

Jack, if anything, I find these games most amusing. It's kinda why people like to watch Big Brother, the fact that people are making an environment into a shithole, and that actually makes the experience more interesting. But not everyone likes reality shows for precisely this reason, so I see what you mean.

[Beanman]

Cliquey, please, don't ever become a lawyer.

[Jackabomb]

I did not say I did not enjoy the game, I said I don't attach sentimentality to it. It's bad for business.

[tanstalas]

If I flip a coin 4 times and they all land on heads, what's the odds of me flipping a fifth head? Please note that at the beginning of this set of trials, there was a 1/32 chance of flipping 5 heads.

The odds are 50/50 on flipping a head on your 5th flip, not sure if that is what you meant? The odds of any individual flip is 50/50, the probability if correct though of 1/32 (2^5) of getting 5 heads in a row. The outcome of the previous flips have no bearing whatsoever on the chance of the current flip. Which is what I said in a long ass post when Cliquey first subbed into game that was overlooked by everyone. Must be my special power that Jack suspected I had

Well, I am now officially 1 win and... something else... what stat is it if everyone died in a game and everyone loses?

[yabbaguy]

Games can be drawn, sometimes a losing-draw.

And yeah, it's 1/2.

[Adrien C]

Pacman...is the first three numbers in your username 182 backwards in tribute for the amazing band in my avi?

[yabbaguy]

More likely: his birthday in DDMMYY format.

[Fenhl]

yay, nick talk!

[Adrien C]

Thanks, Greg. You broke my heart on that one. :/

[pacman281292]

Pacman...is the first three numbers in your username 182 backwards in tribute for the amazing band in my avi?

Err... nope.

(had it been, I'd have prefered pacman182 wouldn't I?)

What yabba said it is.

[Cliquey]

The variables are independent Cliquey, each of your previous games had a setup that was independently randomized from this one. It's the difference between experimental probability and theoretical probability. Experimentally (based on past "trials"), there is a 100% chance that you will replace into a pro-Town slot because you've yet to be scum. BUT theoretically, which is ultimately what matters, you have 22.22...% chance of being scum in every game. The inevitable is that you will eventually replace into a game and you will be scum. By then, those former statistics will be non-indicative of your true alignment.

If I flip a coin 4 times and they all land on heads, what's the odds of me flipping a fifth head? Please note that at the beginning of this set of trials, there was a 1/32 chance of flipping 5 heads.

Jack, if anything, I find these games most amusing. It's kinda why people like to watch Big Brother, the fact that people are making an environment into a shithole, and that actually makes the experience more interesting. But not everyone likes reality shows for precisely this reason, so I see what you mean.

Wow, you act like I didn't address this and like I don't know jack about statistics.

At the point the roles are distributed there is a 2/9 chance that each role will be scum. Fact. Of course compounding C^x will give you the chance that you will be Role C x times in a row, or any combination of roles any amount of times.
However, If you take the assumption that replacements are not random, then the chance that a replacement is a certain role is different than the random distribution at the beginning of the game. I am really not sure why this is so hard to understand.

The beginning of the game probability is like flipping coins, pure chance. Replacement are not pure chance, they have different odds. I don't know why you guys also say "I didn't think of the random chance", reread my posts. I did. I compared the statistical trend of replacement's role to the random distribution 2:7.

Now the numbers, of course, show that if replacements were random I had a 22% chances of being sequenced as town a 6th time, 17% as being sequenced as town in this game. Random doesn't work

Replacements =/= random, ergo you can use replacing as a tell. Being replaced is something that is more likely to happen to a town role-slot.

I'm taking this to the MD because I am right.


@ Bean: Hey pot, how about you stop calling the kettle black. You do know what they say about people in glass houses...

[pacman281292]

Well, statistical deviation always happen.
Example: Theoretically, we have a 50% probability of being born male, and 50% of being born female. I make a census on certain town, to find out the population of men is 65% (and thus women are 35%). Therefore, if someone does give birth on that town, that person will most likely be male?
The answer is NO.

[pacman281292]

EBWOP: The child newborn

[yabbaguy]

Replacements =/= random, ergo you can use replacing as a tell. Being replaced is something that is more likely to happen to a town role-slot.

AHA. That's the snagging point in the debate.

No, that's wrong. Scum can get bored or have life kick them as the ass, and the latter I suspect happened to kyle as it could to anyone. I used to take the vantage of people replacing out being a towntell, but that's really not verifiable.

[yabbaguy]

Well I mean, if any one random player in a 9P setup replaces out, odds are 77.77...% that they're Town. So yeah, it's more likely. But esp. in a Newbie game, I bet you the statistic holds to about that number, not higher if it were a towntell like you claim.