Teleportation Mafia Universe ONE (MAFIA A WINS!)

[Fishythefish]

/confirm

[Fishythefish]

Some theory about this game:

The best use of a teleport is obvious. We get the scum into the other universe.

The best use of a pull is slightly less obvious. If we go into night at a time not exactly the same as the other universe, then if their teleporter is confident that ours will pull him - and that he wants to be pulled - their teleporter can claim. The next day, we have an extra clear.
If their teleporter isn't confident of this, he won't claim, and all we can do is get their most townie/useful looking player over here.

That first use of a pull is easily the strongest of all of those - it gets us a confirmed inno for a day (and so also forces the scum's hand the next night). It also becomes much more powerful later in the game, when a clear or three matters a lot more.

So, I suggest we (ie the town teleporter) adopt a strategy of Teleport, Teleport, Pull, Pull. If the scum don't manage to kill the teleporter on night 3, and our town is a friendly enough place for the other teleporter to want to be here (and clear), we will have clears on days 4 and 5, which could be very important. If this isn't the case, we lose very little.

This may look like it screws over the other town, but actually it doesn't - we can both implement this strategy. There are two important times to have teleporters in this strategy: at night, and when the other town is going into night. If our nights don't overlap, both towns will have teleporters at both these times.

There are some unknowns here, obviously; scum may kill a teleporter, teleport someone one way or the other, we may or may not lynch scum, etc. But AFAIC, this strategy has the potential to do us a lot of good, and won't do us any harm.

I don't think there's a good argument for guiding the teleports.

[Fishythefish]

mykonian's proposed strategy is very antitown.

If the other town teleports people over here, and we only teleport people back reactively, we're going to end up with more scum/scummy players than them, and we are going to lose.

Pulling confirmed innos from the other universe gives us confirmed innos.

So, unilaterally saying we aren't going to use the mechanic is going to screw us over. Even if we got the other town to agree not to teleport, they wouldn't have any incentive not to break the deal. Even if we trusted them not to teleport as well, both towns are losing the confirmed innos that pulling gives us.

As for "the mod thinks the mechanic will hurt us", I think that the average game's PRs make the game easier for the town than a mountainous setup.

I totally agree that scumhunting is the way to win the game. I think that the best way we can exploit the mechanic is to ignore it during the day (at least for now). For our teleportation strategy, I've already given my thoughts. On teleporting (as opposed to pulling) nights, the teleporter may well often want to send back whoever the OU sent us.

vote: Flareonage

and

FoS: Plum

for buddying with an entire universe.

[Fishythefish]

Shouldn't you be fighting scum, in stead of another universe? And I linked Kairyuus post that gives us a confirmed player: that is exploiting the mechanic in a town way. But if we let too many players switch universe, things might get very confusing, do we agree?

For the start of the game, could everybody answer this question:

what are your scumtells, when you are scum?

I am fighting scum, entirely in this universe. My vote was for Plum, who I feel was buddying with this universe, by trying to foster a communal hatred of the other universe.

I agree that things might get confusing if too many players switch universe.

If, right now, I had the option to completely eliminate all teleporting mechanics, I'd find that a very hard decision. There's a balance between the benefits we get (largely, pulling over confirmed innos) and the confusion that may result. I think I'd probaly lean towards keeping the teleporting, actually. But in practise, we don't have that option. Our teleporter is

always

going to claim if the other universe is more desirable and they are going into a pulling night - otherwise he violates "play to win". We are playing to win, in this town. We cannot let the other town screw us over by having one of their scummy players here at all times.

As for my scumtells (completed games only):
Internally, I worry like fuck about nearly every post I write. I imagine, and often believe, that in this post I'm dropping some massive cast-iron scumtell, and will be lynched immediately. Externally, I think (hope, pray) that it's rather more subtle. As scum, I put more emphasis on cold hard logic, and less on gut feeling. I tend to think about pairings more. On the one occasion I've actually had a scumpartner, I bussed him hugely (but this, I think, was largely due to circumstance).
In many games as town, I try to achieve a state of stream-of-conciousness posting, in which I am totally transparent on whatever subject I am adressing, and obviously so - the idea is that I express natural modes of thought better than can be faked. When I feel I have done this well, people tend to have town reads on me. This obvious honesty is something I have not yet been able to fake as scum (although I don't manage this in anywhere near all my town games).
This is particularly easy early on, when there is little information to analyse, and artificial thoughts are harder to construct. In the vast majority (I suspect all) of my last 7 or so games I played from the start, at least one person has expressed a town read on me within 7 or so pages. Since I haven't started a game as scum, I can't say whether this will be true then, but I doubt it.

[Fishythefish]

To the Other Universe

It seems you are thinking of lynching quickly in order to teleport scummy people over here.

Make no mistake: we are not idiots..

On night actions, there is no sensible agreement we can come to - at some point it will be unilaterally broken. But we can and do see your day conversations. Any move to systematically lynch quicker than us will inevitably lead to both universes lynching quicker, and therefore worse. You will not just screw us over, you will screw yourselves over. If you end up one night ahead of us, will you have gained as much as if you spent twice the time over your days?

And yeah,

unvote, vote: Gayle

. For reasons, see the excellent post 92.

[Fishythefish]

Proposal for Uni2: Synchronized hammers for maximum fairness. Accept?

I support this proposal in theory for day 1 (although in practise I can't see how it will work?).

[Fishythefish]

On night actions, there is no sensible agreement we can come to - at some point it will be unilaterally broken.

I don't think we should expect cooperative agreements to be broken at all. That might be true if we were both static, monolithic organizations, but we aren't. We're a collection of individuals that may or may not remain on the side of the dimensional rift we're currently on.

Any townie teleporter that uses their actions to fuck over the other universe faces the very real possibility that they will be pulled over to the universe they just fucked over and have to live in their own mess. It seems that our best bet as individuals is to make sure that both towns do really well.

So for both towns, I think, self-interest will help us reach a cooperative solution, not hinder us. Whatever strategy we end up using, we should make sure it ends up being a net gain for both towns as a whole.

Teleporting scummy players to the other universe is a zero sum game, imo, that we should not be playing. A plan like Kairyuu's makes sense, I think, in that it gives both towns a slight advantage.

For now, the odds are heavily (~75%, I'd guess) in favour of me dying/living in this universe (particulary as I don't intend to be teleported for being scummy).

A town teleporter that gets pulled

will be confirmed innocent from then on, wherever they are

. Sure, they might get pulled back (though it's unlikely). But they are going to have a definite advantage.

If both towns do well, hurrah. But all I'm interested in is winning. And if that means going to the other universe, and I can do that, then I'm gone.

If we were in a situation where the best tactic was cooperation with the other universe, then we could do that. But have you actually read and understood Kai's strategy and mine? In the case that our universe is a good place to be, mine is superior (we get a clear for a day). In the opposite case, no teleporter in their right mind is going to claim to come over here.

@pops: as I understand, time of hammer is what matters. In the current post-submitting climate, is anyone going to be able to coordinate this to the minute?

@mod:

What are the conditions for the two towns to have gone into night at the same town?

[Fishythefish]

EBWOP: the last word of the post should be "time".

[Fishythefish]

@mod: What are the conditions for the two towns to have gone into night at the same town?

I presume you mean at the same time. In order for two towns to enter night at the same time, they must end the day (either by deadline, hammer, or potentially mafia teleportation causing lynch) at the precise minute as recorded by Mafiascum.

In this event, where there are conflicting actions in a simultaneous night, it will be decided by order of action (see rules) first, and coin flip (random.org) second.

Thank you, that answers the question I intended to ask.

[Fishythefish]

No matter who you are or how you play, you can't possibly know that you will remain here. So the best bet for every townie is to try and make sure that both universes are doing the best they can. And a game where we all try to fuck over the other town by sending them our garbage is not the way to do that. It ends up helping neither town---we screw them, they screw us, we both end up getting screwed. Zero sum game, no winners.

I don't think we need disagree.

The strategy I propose helps our town if we implement it unilaterally. It also helps both towns if we both implement it. If you like, it's the total opposite of the Prisoner's Dilemma - the rational choice for both towns also benefits both of us.

Apart from direct responses to questions, this is the last post I'm going to make about the mechanics of this game for a long time, or I'll get hooked on them, and they aren't the way to win. I strongly advise the town teleporter to understand and follow the strategy in post 62.

Incidentally, Kai just agreed that my strategy is better than his.

[Fishythefish]

Argh. The mod's clarification 1 outlaws my strategy, at least in terms of distributions of teleports and pulls.

@mod

It also means that, after the first two choices, the town teleporter will never have any choice about teleporting or pulling.
I'll think about possible modifications.

[Fishythefish]

What Kairyuu just said over there:

Well fuck. That kinda makes any plan we've made so far rather unfeasible without modification.

@all (Both towns, so someone please quote): If we decide to go with fishy's plan, 5th Day will probably be the most important Day to have the confirmed townie, so I propose a P:T:T sequence for both towns. It means we essentially waste our first pull on the first Night so as to not narrow it down by much, but in all likelyhood D5 will be endgame or close to it, so a pull at that point may mean the difference between winning and losing (also, waiting any longer to use the first pull and we might not even get to USE our second).

I agree with this.

The key points of this modified plan:

1. Nights must NOT be synchronised. They should be out by however long it takes for everyone to see a post (24 hours at least?).
2. Town teleporters must claim when the other town is going into night 1. They will be confirmed (if short-lived) town in the other universe, and they will be in a better position.
3. Everyone wins - both towns will have a confirmed inno on day 5.

[Fishythefish]

Ouch. Not just ninja'd, double ninja'd.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, final modification: if the universe two teleporter is a muppet and doesn't claim, pull someone anyway. Then their teleporter on the important day will know we are pulling, and will claim.

[Fishythefish]

The town teleporter claims when the other game is going into night. Our teleporter claiming now would only be acceptable if we knew the other game was lynching first.

[Fishythefish]

@pops: I agree that that is desirable. I suspect it will be unworkable without affecting scumhunting, and I don't think it's hugely important.

[Fishythefish]

Aaaah! I didn't notice that if our teleporter is pulled, we don't get a teleporter that night. Is that new?

*Zoraster Comment: it was new as of just before the game, so if you had read all the rules when you signed up, it had changed after that.*

*Reads all the rules again, very slowly and carefully*

I think that, given the rules, any strategy is currently of marginal benefit.

@pops: that is a good idea only if we can consistently lynch faster than the other universe (and soon enough, it will be a race), while still lynching well. IMO, a bad plan.

[Fishythefish]

Aaaah! I didn't notice that if our teleporter is pulled, we don't get a teleporter that night. Is that new?

*Zoraster Comment: it was new as of just before the game, so if you had read all the rules when you signed up, it had changed after that.*

That goes down as my own stupid fault then

@Gayle: the strategy discussion has wound down, and people have reads and stuff like that. Any comments on the game, now your easy excuse for active lurking has gone?

[Fishythefish]

I happen to find RVS very useful. It gets the game started, it gives you questions to ask, votes and bandwagons to question, etc. With the strategy discussion you

might

find a basis on which to begin scum hunting (as is the case in universe 2), or you might finish the discussion and gain absolutely no insight as to who is scum (as is the case in this universe).

Says you. I found out that you were scum.

Ugh, I like how I've been accused of actively lurking twice when I haven't even had a chance to do so. I'm sorry I went to sleep last night and didn't participate in your strategy back and forth that lead to absolutely zero scum hunting.

Except, that's not what you did. You posted intermittently for 5 hours along the lines of "any more strategy discussion is useless". I don't see a single attempt to get anything else going. And given that you later admitted that you hadn't actually been following, how on earth can you claim to have known that no more discussion was needed? Frankly, these don't seem like the attitudes of someone who wants the best town strategy to emerge.

What am I supposed comment on? The strategy discussion? 'Cause aside from a question from Myko and attacks on myself, that is all that has happened. I don't find farside22's or DGB's replies to Myko's question scummy at all. I would probably have given the same type of answer. I think pop's attack on Flareonage was silly, but that is probably because I've played games with Flareonage before.

I'd say the amount of content in this game, even if you think all strategy talk is null, is enough to generate some reads - or at least a not-quite-random vote. I was wondering if you had any reads. A "no" would have sufficed - everything you say here seems to be saying something is totally null on all players concerned - like, in fact, everything else you've said.

@elvis: mostly, we misunderstood the rules for a while, then settled on the following ideas:
1) Sometimes, it's very powerful to have a confirmed inno (teleporter/mason) in the other universe claim, and get pulled over here.
2) This is going to be very powerful later in the game (D4/5ish)
3) Teleporters have to choose a 3 day cycle of teleporting and pulling and stick to it (eg. TPTTPTTPT...). Because of 1 and 2, PTT is probably optimal.
4) If we get through D1 quicker than the OU, we can pull over their teleporter and profit.
IMO, 4 would be significant, and I'd be prepared to compromise a little on scumhunting to achieve it (but only a little).

[Fishythefish]

@mod:

Please delete double post

[Fishythefish]

vote: Fish

For attacking Gayle on something I think makes Gayle more likely to be town than scum, but which might look like fuel for an easy bandwagon.

Which point of mine are you referring to here?

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm. I could cope with a Raskol lynch at this point. His vote on me for attacking Gayle over Gayle wanting to stop strategy discussions isn't wonderful - I don't see mine as the kind of point which leads to an easy bandwagon. Not only do I (obviously) not think that Gayle wanting to stop strategy discussions is protown, I think it's very surprising if Raskol thinks that that is such a natural belief. Not explaining this vote properly or following it up at all feels off as well. His second vote is another I very much disagree with - I don't find the post of EK's he quotes waffling in a scummy way at all.

unvote, vote: Raskol

I find DGB's play fairly disimilar to the last game we played together, where she was town. I don't get the same impression of extreme confidence that I did in that game. I need to go back and read her in that game before I'm very sure about that though.

@Ojanen: I think an individual scum would be very unhappy to be teleported into the OU at this stage.

[Fishythefish]

- Liking Gayle a lot more. Makes a decent case against pops
- I agree with EK about publishing townreads. pops says we want to help the other universe with their pulling – no, we really, really don’t. That seems like an unlikely thought for town – it clearly hurts us if they pull well.
- Flare’s vote for myk is rather horrible. I see the passage of townreads theory as pretty null (with the exception of the above). I don’t understand how you’d get mykscum from it.
- myk’s slip looks bad. @myk: what was going through your head?

[Fishythefish]

For me, it's very simple; it looks like your real win condition came into your head as you justified what the right move was, when you meant to type your supposed win condition.

Typos like that do happen, and I'm not sure how much of a scumtell they are.

[Fishythefish]

For me, it's very simple; it looks like your real win condition came into your head as you justified what the right move was, when you meant to type your supposed win condition.

damn. I see what you could see in that sentence.

But the whole warning was indeed to argue for the right move for town, so even if I was scum, I would have been arguing for town. The scum-wincondition is not related to it in any way (scum would benefit from confusion), so really, this was just a typo, seen the way it doesn't fit in the point I'm making.

But I guess I should read my own posts before posting to avoid this. Sorry.

So, here's the scum thought process/fail.
You are trying to look protown in strategy discussions.
You give what you think is a protown strategy.
You then say, "and so it will help us win".
But you get the wrong "us" in this last clause.

I can also see another thought process/fail. You were typing the last sentence quickly, and the sentence "it only makes both universes more likely to lose against scum" melded with the sentence "it only makes both towns more likely to lose against scum" in an unfortunate way. The use of universe/town interchangeably in this game is exactly the kind of thing that leads to such typos.

Or, of course, the wrong word came out of your fingers for no reason. This happens, although this would be a particularly unfortunate mixup.

I find it hard to pick between these (I've had no experience of the "admitting that you're scum" type of scumslip). The first obviously makes you scum, the second and third are nulltells. For me, it is and will remain a significant point against you, but I don't think it's worthy of an instant lynch.

[Fishythefish]

- I agree with EK about publishing townreads. pops says we want to help the other universe with their pulling – no, we really, really don’t. That seems like an unlikely thought for town – it clearly hurts us if they pull well.

What? Quote it. I do not recall saying that.

Er... can't find it. I'll try and work out what I meant later.

[Fishythefish]

That is, try to hold me off with a promise to "figure out" what went through your head as you made a post like a day ago so you can wait and see if I get distracted and forget you uber-misrepped me?

unvote, vote: FishytheFish

Wrong-player-fail. The post I was referring to was actually made by EK:

No offense I just don't agree with all of your posts.

Also, it's a horrible strategy for any game to hide who we think is town. Scum already can tell who they should NK. And for this game in particular since we have to coordinate with another universe, our reads will help them with pulling.

- I agree with EK about publishing townreads. pops says we want to help the other universe with their pulling – no, we really, really don’t. That seems like an unlikely thought for town – it clearly hurts us if they pull well.

In this post, I switched the names "EK" and "pops" from what I intended to say.

[Fishythefish]

Day 1 Vote Count

CSL ( 1 ) Rhinox
DrippingGoofball ( 5 ) mykonian Albert B. Rampage popsofctown farside22 fishythefish
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 0 )
farside22 ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
flareonage ( 0 )
gayle ( 0 )
Albert B. Rampage ( 2 ) Raskol elvis_knits
mykonian ( 3 ) flareonage plum DrippingGoofball
ojanen ( 0 )
plum ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 1 ) gayle
Raskol ( 2 ) evilsnail ojanen
Rhinox ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 1 ) CSL
Total Votes ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am

I like the DGB wagon best:
DGB on myk’s question is bad. If she finds the question, and responses, serious scumtells, why this, after the question and some responses:

Who do you suspect, DGB? Why are you not voting?

No one, that should answer both questions.

@ mykonian You're asking for my scumtells? How the heck should I know. I'm different in every game. Every game has a rhythm, and an atmosphere.

If the question and the answerers are scummy, why didn’t you suspect anyone?

After she does say that people who answered are scum (208), she fails to notice 2 of the 3 players who answered it (farside, me). farside immediately points this out (212). DGB ignores this for a long time, which seems very odd – she is now using it as a serious argument, so why on earth wouldn’t she look at the responses to the question until they were shoved in her face for a third time?

This inconsistent pushing of a scumtell doesn’t look like a serious attempt to work out who the scum are – more like a convenient reason for votes/suspicions.

I don’t like her accusation of an ABR/myk scumteam based on the latter’s wanting one of ABR/DGB teleported away. It’s very much against scum-with-ABR myk's interests to have ABR teleported away, so this makes little sense. Feels like she just wants to sling dirt at myk. Also produces a very bad argument for her initial vote – clearly not reading myk’s thoughts on CSL before voting him over them – this at a time when myk was under some pressure.

DGB’s timeline on myk:
- Jumps on wagon as fourth vote after Plum finds myk’s slip
- Moves off, briefly, to ABR
- Revotes with crappy reasoning
This last bit really feels like an attempt to push forward an otherwise faltering wagon.

unvote, vote: DGB

[Fishythefish]

Fishythefish - I don't know, getting a bad gut feeling from his posts. He was very wishy-washy about a supposed slip by myko at some point and his initial Gayle vote was a bit off. Mostly this is gut, though.

There are clearly two explanations for myk's slip - it was a scumslip or an alignment neutral slip. To entertain them both as possibilities isn't "wishy-washy". I stated my conclusion - that I view it as a decent point against myk - and I don't really see how I could have been more concrete.

What do you find off about my Gayle vote? I've got something to say on this when you've answered.

[Fishythefish]

And fishy calls this excellent and uses it as his reason to vote gayle. No matter how much I dislike pops post here, I dislike somebody calling it excellent even more. Because I give people a little more leeway in saying stupid stuff if it's their own idea -- we all have moments of being wrong. But to AGREE with somebody else's lame ideas is harder for me to believe. It also avoid responsibility for having their own reason -- they can blame it on the other guy and his stupid reasoning. I think it's a way to avoid blame.

OK. I disagree with you that pops post was bad - Gayle's points against the strategy discussion were bad ones. I'd also remind when I made this vote - very early in the game and, contrary to what you said a little while ago, as the first vote in this bandwagon (not the fourth). I think that, at the time, there wasn't any better reason to vote for anyone.
The Gayle bandwagon sunk for a good reason - the action it was based on was early and not a brilliant scumtell, and Gayle hasn't looked like scum since then. But I don't think there's anything wrong with my part in it.

@snail: if someone does something that may be because they are scum, or may be for alignment neutral reasons, that isn't a null tell. Because it's more likely to come from scum than town.

[Fishythefish]

I would have a problem with you copycatting pops reason, even if I thought pops had a good reason. Why weren't you thinking for yourself?

My post was about the 30th post of the game proper. pops's was about the 20th. I thought he had made the best point that was around in those posts, and made it well. Why shouldn't I use that as a reason to vote?

[Fishythefish]

Mykonian doesn't remember playing with me, DGB doesn't remember playing with me, how many people will forget playing with me?

Who are you, and why are you posting in our game?

I think I'll be able to make a real post in 5 hours or so.

[Fishythefish]

@CSL: why do you think I'm scummy?

I believe DGB is scum. Her inconsistencies, particularly about myk's question, point to a player who is thinking about making cases, not about who is scum.

I'm not at all sure what to think about voting and unvoting CSL in the same post. It's a bit weird - but why would scum do it, particularly? It's hardly effective distancing.

[Fishythefish]

I'll worry about that one if and when the other two both flip scum

I see nothing in CSL to make me think he's scum.

I dislike DGB's recent attempts to reduce the wagon on her to a personal vendetta with ABR. I don't think that's at all a fair representation.

[Fishythefish]

Explain exactly what you mean when you say that I am "thinking about making cases" and not "who is scum."

It better be convincing.

OK: on the myk question thing, you have said repeatedly that you view it as a good scumtell, on both the questioner and the answerers. But you failed to even read the responses to the questions, even when it was pointed out they existed. That's very inconsistent with a townie who is trying to work out who the scum are - you failed to apply what you claim to see as a good way of finding scum. It's consistent with scum, making up scumtells (or maybe using ones you consider real, it's irrelevant), to further your cases.

[Fishythefish]

EK: I think pairwise scumhunting d1 with no information is a terrible reason for a vote - simply because you're much less likely to be right trying to name multiple scum. Is there anything about CSL himself that makes you think he is scum? I think the connection with me would be better left until he flips scum (which I don't really think he would).

[Fishythefish]

The other universe needs to read this

DGB just claimed mason.

If that's a fake claim, we need a counterclaim.

If it's not, how's this for a plan?

Other universe lynches first. Pulls over DGB, who lives confirmed town there. Night 2, we lynch first, pull over DGB, who lives confirmed town here day 3. Night 3, she gets her head blown off.

unvote

[Fishythefish]

P.S. OU: you

must

get a lynch before we do. It's on the same scale of importance as lynching scum.

[Fishythefish]

P.P.S. as has been discussed, the counterclaim, if there is one, should come from our mason.

[Fishythefish]

Day 1 Vote Count

CSL ( 2 ) ojanen popsofctown
DrippingGoofball ( 3 ) Albert B. Rampage plum Rhinox
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 2 ) CSL Raskol
farside22 ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
Hoopla ( 0 )
gayle ( 0 )
Albert B. Rampage ( 3 ) gayle DrippingGoofball elvis_knits
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
plum ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 2 ) farside22 Hoopla
Raskol ( 2 ) evilsnail mykonian
Rhinox ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 1 ) fishythefish
Total Votes ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am

Sorry - this really is the last one.

P.P.P.S. if our real mason ccs, the same trick can be used on them.

[Fishythefish]

Someone in the other universe needs to quote this

If you lynch first today, you get a confirmed inno with serious scumhunting power tomorrow. DGB has claimed mason, and so far hasn't been counterclaimed. Pull her across and be in a much better position. DP is a decent lynch, no need to hang around 2 days before doing the inevitable.

The following players haven't posted since DGB's claim:
Raskol
Plum
Ojanen
evilsnail
Once they have, it's safe to assume that DGB is real.

I don't have any other strong suspicions right now. Obviously, I'll be trying to get some as a matter of urgency.

[Fishythefish]

@mod

What timezone is the deadline in, please?

[Fishythefish]

EBWOP: ignore that, found it.

[Fishythefish]

By my (unreliable) count, ABR is at L-2. He

must not be lynched yet

. If DGB is real, she can be kept alive for two more days, one in the other universe, one here. Confirmed townies are a Good Thing. DGB's scumhunting ability is a Good Thing. Forcing the scum's hand night three is a Better Thing than doing so on night one. We must wait for the other universe to lynch, or it becomes clear that they cannot do so. Two days is a very long time to get two votes - and we have plenty of active players to cast those votes. Anyone who lets us go into night first gets an automatic vote from me for killing off DGB.

Also, it's important that we are sure there is no counterclaim coming - lynching before all players have posted since DGB's claim would be madness.

I'm not totally comfortable with an ABR lynch - my gut really thinks he's town. If my vote is needed in a deadline situation, I'll do that, but I'd prefer to lynch CSL. EK's points on him are good, and move my read from neutral to scummy.

With the level of activity, and over two days left, this lynch doesn't need to be a panicked rush. We have 8 players around who are prepared to vote ABR, if necessary, in the last 12 hours before the lynch. But atm the deadline isn't an excuse for voting for someone who isn't your top suspect.

[Fishythefish]

I don't understand?

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and

vote: CSL

[Fishythefish]

A thought strikes:
If ABR is scum, and gets to L-1, it's in his interests to self hammer to lynch before the other universe, so DGB can be killed off. On no account should anyone vote for him now. In fact, as an insurance against stupidity or wrong vote counts, I'd feel more comfortable if someone unvoted him now.

[Fishythefish]

Having for the first time actually found time to read a fair amount of U2, I'd add my signature to the above letter.

[Fishythefish]

Day 1 Vote Count

CSL ( 2 ) ojanen fishythefish
DrippingGoofball ( 2 ) Albert B. Rampage plum
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 1 ) Raskol
farside22 ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
Hoopla ( 0 )
gayle ( 0 )
Albert B. Rampage ( 5 ) gayle elvis_knits farside22 popsofctown CSL
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
plum ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 1 ) Hoopla
Raskol ( 2 ) evilsnail mykonian
Rhinox ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 2 ) Rhinox DrippingGoofball
Total Votes ( 15 )

With 15 alive, 8 needed to lynch.
Deadline: 2/8 11am EST

/ghostslay

[Fishythefish]

I'm feeling paranoid, so I'm going to wait until the mod sends them into night before voting. And I suppose we should give Plum a chance to cc.

To our teleporter: tonight, in case you haven't been reading, you are teleporting. If you don't believe me, iso me.

[Fishythefish]

Looks like they got it wrong. Should have gone with Jack.

unvote, vote: ABR

[Fishythefish]

This game needs a bit of a rethink for me, and I'm afraid I won't be able to do that justice for a day or two.

[Fishythefish]

Ellibereth should stay here, and stay alive.

Come the endgame, we are going to have some players from our universe here, and some from the OU. If the OU finishes before us, we are then going to know how many of each kind of scum we have, and have a pool of players each is from. This will very much aid us in scumhunting. Also, it is very unlikely that at any point, OU scum will be a threat over here (it would take two successful teleports, and us teleporting/killing our scum well). There is also the chance that the OU scum teleport him back for endgame reasons.

Also, whatever his alignment, Elli's motivations here (at least during the day) are to hunt for scum. At night, he will do nothing.

There's a balance to be struck between the information that a mix of universes can give us and the confusion it can potentially cause. There's some optimal number of OU players to have over here - but it's certainly not 0. Until we have 2 OU scum over here, they aren't something to worry about until very late in the game. I'd be happiest with 2-3 players from the OU here at all times.

Even if Elli is our most likely scum (I confess to not having read him in the OU yet - though I will), he is not the player who is most dangerous to us atm. As such, he is a bad lynch, and a bad teleport.

Also, if a decent chunk of the town agree with these ideas (which are right even without this paragraph), our scum have enormous motivation to kill Elli, who is dangerous to them because he is a bad lynch/teleport and, if scum, very bad for them in an endgame situation.

I'm very happy to argue this point for as long as it takes. Players from the OU are a great asset, and the confusion and possible second scum faction they bring is well worth it.

The OU should take note of this. It is well worth it for both towns to split up both scum factions, if at all possible. This means that, for now at least, teleporting back players is counterproductive.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, and U2 teleporter, you suck. Just so you know.

[Fishythefish]

@farside: you say you find my reasoning "scummy".
From the PoV of the scum, my plan means it is more likely they are divided, and more likely they have to worry about another kill in this universe. Why would I propose it as scum?

OK, so suppose that the OU, in it's infinite wisdom, is deciding to send back evilsnail. Then here is something similar to the choice we (or, rather, our teleporter) faces:

He is in a mountainous game with ~10 players in it, and 2 or three scum (depending on if we lynch scum - evilsnail is back). If he likes, he can get rid of the scummiest player, and replace them with a player who has about the same chance of being scum as that player does. But the replacement, if he comes in and is scum, will be a SK without a kill, rather than a member of the mafia faction. Should he make the swap?

Things aren't quite that simple - people come back and forth. But if you are arguing for a course of action that basically keeps the towns as they started, you are pretty much arguing that the player in the above scenario shouldn't make the swap. Which in my view is madness.

"We don't want their scum" is an emotive argument about the apparent unfairness of risking having scum who aren't ours around. But the equal chance of giving our scum in return

far

outweighs this - because a scum in a strong faction is hugely much more powerful than an isolated non-killing scum. I see this as no more than an appeal to emotion.

Again - anyone who disagrees with me, please please say so. I want to convince the teleporter that I am right, and obviously have no way of telling if I've done so, so I'd like everyone to understand where I'm coming from, and ideally agree with me.

@myko: what else would scum-elli do except scumhunt? Pretty much his only chances of winning are either getting back to U2 or reducing U1 scum. I'd say the latter is well worth his while. I do agree that supposing he's going to be a serious protown force here is optimistic.

These theory posts are relatively easy - serious time to work out who is scum hasn't happened yet. I'll do that in ~24 hours time.

[Fishythefish]

OK, so suppose that the OU, in it's infinite wisdom, is deciding to send back evilsnail.

Or, even more likely, Plum.

[Fishythefish]

Do I want more scum to "crowd into this universe"? Talk about a loaded question. Here and now, I am arguing for having

one

player from the other universe over here. If he is scum, he is scum with no friends or kill, who has a good chance of being totally outed in the endgame. Yeah, I'd risk having a toothless SK over here for a comparable chance of reducing the scumteam by one.

The language you are using makes it sound as if this is a one way deal - we get their scum, and are screwed, while they laugh at us. This is emphatically not the case.

[Fishythefish]

Okay lets try this again. 1) I'm aware no one has a clue what eli's allignment is but clearly looking at the OU he wasn't sent here for his winning personality.
This leads me to (2) the OU decided to go with the orginal lets screw over the U1 with scummy people approach. So I suspect tomorrow we will get another player they (the teleporter) deemed scummy and sent our way. So no I don't want players here that OU deemed scummy in our universe.

Sure. The OU is sending us scummy players. And what are we sending back? Scummy players.

On average

, we are sending as much scum as we are getting back.

Suppose we each get one of the two teleports right, and both lynch wrongly. Then the situation tomorrow is:
6 town vs 2 U1 vs 1 U2 scum here
6 town vs 2 U2 vs 1 U1 scum there
This is so much better than 6 vs 3 in both places.

I'll say it again: for every potential U2 scum we receive, we send back an equally scummy U1 player. For now, and probably for the whole game, U2 scum are not going to be a serious threat over here. Therefore, trading likely-U1-scum for likely-U2-scum is a very good deal indeed.

Your arguments still completely ignore the thrust of my arguments - that on average we are getting rid of dangerous scum and replacing them with feeble scum, which is a Good Thing.

The OU is only going with the sane, let's use our teleports wisely approach. It's not going with the plan of quicklynching, which everybody shouted at them for. And your arguments feel like irrational hatred of the OU for sending us likely scum, without thinking about how best to improve our chances of victory.

[Fishythefish]

TL/DR:
Universe 1 scum is scary. Universe 2 scum is not. We should lynch and teleport U1 scum.

[Fishythefish]

As noted by Ojanen and farside, my teleportation thoughts have been more/deeper than my scumhunting thoughts. This is because (at least for me) game theory is easy, and scumhunting is hard. The posts I made a couple of days ago took me a total of maybe 10 minutes to think and write, and I’m sure they are almost entirely right; this post has taken more like two hours, and the conclusions in it might be totally off the mark. I acknowledge that theory posts are no substitute for scumhunting, and until the reread I just did I’ve considered myself behind in this game.

It should be noted that the mafia may, just possibly, have known DGB was here in order to kill her. They had 3 minutes to make their kill after the OU exited night. Otherwise, they took a big gamble – which makes CSL the softclaimed teleporter look bad, since he was the obvious other kill.

Scummy people:

CSL on slip –
1. Votes myk, saying it was a huge slip.
2. Claims, implausibly, to have found a slip from many pages ago independently from Plum.
3. Unvotes, saying “the vote has served its purpose”. What was that purpose?
Publishes an unconvincing scumlist – reasons are “scummy posts” (me and snail), “Not here” (raskol), “not scumhunting enough” (ABR) and “meta” (pops). Of these, only ABR’s is a good reason – the others either aren’t scumtells or need expansion.
Defends with “I’m not scum – wouldn’t have killed DGB”. There’s a three man scum team. This is just the kind of thing I can imagine someone saying as scum if I personally wouldn’t have kill DGB, but my scumpartners overruled me/talked me into it.
Verdict: Fairly likely scum. Clearly has a scummy-looking playstyle generally, but even within this has lied, and generally gives me a scum read.

evilsnail I really don’t like. Reading him in iso, there’s a huge amount of stuff which falls into the categories of null reads, discrediting other points, calling people town, strategy discussion of the kind that reads protown but doesn’t really say anthing, weakening his own points with equivocal reads, and other assorted things which don’t commit him in any way to any serious reads. He’s leaving himself in a position to vote CSL, myko and myself – perhaps the three easiest lynches in the game right now. His play feels like trying to stay under the radar and be in a position to get a town lynch. I really think he is scum.

vote:evilsnail

pops: Of the wagon on DGB, his vote is definitely the one I find least convincing. It’s really about DGB scumhunting vocally and certainly – which is very much in her meta. I don’t really believe pops thought the evilsnail vote from DGB was so bad that pushing it hard merited a vote. Oj says this post is bizarre – and pops replies that an analysis of DGB is expected to be bizarre. Yes, but I’d also expect it to convince me you thought she was scum, if it’s followed with a vote.
I also find his vote for me unconvincing – it’s ridiculously aggressive to vote someone for not being able to find a quote, and saying they’ll explain it later. Particularly when the immediate unvote is followed a little later with a vote for EK, this looks like a way to move off DGB onto another wagon.
The reason for jumping back onto DGB is that DGB didn’t stop declaring reads with no support after pops attacked her for it. This is crap – it doesn’t become a better scumtell after you pointed it out. This suggests that you think town are more likely to respond to accusations by changing the way they play – which seems like rubbish.

[Fishythefish]

@pops: it was only on a reread that it struck me how bad that point was.

[Fishythefish]

1. You don't really address the main reasons I find you scummy there. I feel your play actively avoids taking stances on who is scum. I don't feel you don't have the time/energy/ability to scumhunt - I feel like you aren't trying. "Give me a chance to improve today" is a silly argument - the same can go for any reason for thinking anyone scum. The fact that I have recently posted lots of theory is pretty irrelevant - I have tried to scumhunt in this game, and I think my posts reflect that. The same can't be said of you.

2. This is the point - you haven't given a good reason for any of your three suspicions, and are in a position to jump on any of their wagons, saying that you think them scummiest. Until you just voted me, I had no idea who you found scummiest.

3. Giving a scumlist, with reasons, isn't at all the same thing as the above. I've committed myself to positions on multiple players. These cases can be argued against, and compared - and if I now vote CSL, people can ask me what changed. Your post commits you to nothing more than "I dislike CSL, fish and Raskol", and later on you can decide how strongly you feel about that. I'm not calling you scummy for giving multiple reads; I'm calling you scummy for fingering multiple good targets while giving no reads.
Note: I originally thought that in your last post before mine, "you" referred to myk. I'm not sure how this changes anything, I'll look at this later today.

4. Hypocrisy isn't a scumtell.

[Fishythefish]

Well, you can "feel" that all you want, it's not true. I should know. I haven't actively avoided taking a stance. As I've noted, I've not withheld my opinion on the major wagons, like DGB, ABR and CSL.

This is a matter on which people have to make up their own minds. I recommend snail's iso. Yes, you have commented on the major wagons - although in the case of DGB there was an awful lot of saying you didn't really have a read on her before you eventually admitted something was a "point against her"

Then you posted this terrible vote, so I voted you.

You haven't really explained what's terrible about my vote. Iso yourself - do you think my feelings about the makeup of your posts are unbelievable? Do you not think it's scummy to have three suspects for no real reasons, and not commit to anything by voting for one of them?

Re: hypocrisy: Why can't you believe something is scummy even though you've done it yourself? I firmly believe that posting fluff to avoid scumhunting is a scumtell. If it looks like I have done that myself this game (which I hope it doesn't), then to other people who think the same way as me, I would expect to look scummy for it. That doesn't detract from the argument that your scumhunting-avoiding fluff is scummy. Accusations of hypocrisy are a bad way to undermine an argument.

The things I do as town and the things that I think are scummy in others may overlap. While I'd prefer if they didn't, there's no contradiction in that.

[Fishythefish]

It feels like I have rather struck a nerve here with my use of "easy targets". You don't seem to be arguing against my actual point, so much as against the general practise of calling yourself an "easy lynch" and discrediting valid arguments against you. My post doesn't in any way criticise the overall wagon on CSL, or the general suspicions on anyone else. I am saying that attacking multiple players for no reason looks like scum keeping their options open - particularly if these players are under scrutiny from elsewhere. Yes, that scrutiny may be valid - but that's no excuse not to give your reasons, or at least which of the wagons you support the most. snail failing to do that reads very much like he's waiting to see where his vote should go, rather than deciding now who he thinks is scummiest.

The part about those being the easiest lynches was factually wrong, though. CSL is an easy target, but snail's suspicions on me mostly predate everyone else's, and I was wrong in thinking he was voicing suspicions of myko. This doesn't do much to weaken my overall point - reading snail's iso, he's always left himself in a position to change BWs easily, including around all major BWs. Part of this is that he's voiced no suspicions with reasons, while producing lots of posts that read like content.

[Fishythefish]

And I fully disagree with me being an easy lynch. Apart from the mistake, and in farside's case calling her a liar you don't have a single thing against me. Going after my theory discussion completely neglects what I did for searching scum, going after my theory discussion is actually kind of useless this far into the game (scum can hide in it way too easily, and all you pick out are the people that are weird)

So I dislike fishy calling me and him easy targets: seen the votes, Fishy clearly isn't, and he is way sensitive to the little pressure brought on him.

When I said "easy targets", I was talking about suspicions voiced by people. Rightly or wrongly, lots of people have been suspicious of you. Yeah, the more I read about what I said the more fail it is. I was under the impression that multiple people had recently given slight suspicions against me - actually, it was only 2 (Oj and farside). I am indeed way sensitive to little pressure.

Geez, you're really taking this and running with it, aren't you? Granted, I joined the CSL wagon, but it's not true of other wagons. For DGB, I FOSed her the moment she said sharing scum tells was a scum tell, before there was any real suspicion on her. I then said that I considered this a mild scum tell, but that I have trouble reading her. This opinion went unchanged throughout the day. This is merely consistency. For ABR, it is also clearly not true. I also resisted the elvis vote, though this never really picked up. In fact, I've only jumped on a wagon once.

Btw, I haven't even made "lots of posts." And please show me some that read like content, but aren't. Because, at the moment, you're basically waffling.

The stance that you have a mild scum tell but have trouble reading someone is the perfect stance for scum wondering whether to hop on a wagon. The fact that you were consistent in this stance doesn't change that. For ABR, you fossed him over DGB's claim, and then in your next post said the case wasn't otherwise that strong. Yes, you commented on the case, and I'm not saying those comments are unbelievable. But after them, you were in a good position to go either way on ABR. I wasn't making points about you jumping on wagons. I was making points about you loitering around wagons, looking like you could jump on or sidle away at any moment.

You are right about the EK thing. I hadn't been thinking of this as a major wagon, but actually at the time you commented it had potential, and this doesn't fit well with my view of you.

For your last sentence - my case on you is very much based on your overall play. I think that on first glance, you don't give the impression of a lurker, but if you look harder at your posts there isn't generally much there. There's no point me quoting examples of places you didn't scumhunt - I don't find your individual posts particularly scummy - I suggest people read your iso to see if they agree with me (and I suggest you read it to see whether you think my suspicions are plausible).

How do you do those lines across posts? I'd like to draw one here.

I find pops's stance on CSL ok. His stated position is that with no great scumreads, why not lynch the player who is at best unreadable and at worst scummy. This makes sense, except that it sounds like pops isn't trying to scumhunt.

The other universe is going to lynch quickly. I would currently support a fairly quick (say next few days) lynch on snail, and probably also CSL - getting nearly a whole day behind them is extremely undesirable (they will have more scummy players over here than we have over there).

[Fishythefish]

I really dislike snail's 1134. Because, up until then, I was pretty sure I'd struck scum. But that post really makes me doubt my read, both because I really believe it on a gut level, and it makes so little sense for scumsnail. At that point, snail was being voted by four people. Three of them had the same point against him, and then there was me. I'd made a case which had attracted no support, and a fair amount of criticism. Why on earth would scumsnail roll over and basically say that I had a case? Going after my case is such a natural play there.

unvote

. I don't believe that post came from scum.

vote: pops

- since he's scum and all.

[Fishythefish]

Deadline is in 9 days. Since the OU has lynched, we cannot afford to wait that long - that will mean we have more scummy players here than the OU does at all times. I think we should be trying hard to get a lynch within the next few days.

[Fishythefish]

My vote for pops:

As I said in my last post, I dislike pops's play in the DGB wagon. I don't like the reasons he gave for voting either time he voted DGB, and I don’t like the way he hopped off the wagon in the middle, again with fairly bad reasoning. I find it difficult to believe pops was being honest about his opinions on DGB – much more like he was looking for excuses to hop on that wagon. Pops hasn’t given many votes this game, nor a huge number of cases, and not believing one of them was earnest is a significant thing.

My gut says funny things as I read pops’s posts. It doesn’t feel like his agenda is to find and lynch scum, but nor does it feel like he’s just attacking people to look good. The closest I can come is it feels like he is disagreeing people for its own sake. I don’t really know what to make of this – it could be another way to try and look protown, or it could just be a playstyle thing. This isn't part of my case.

I don’t much like pop’s reactions to the wagon on him. The “DGB is going to ruin this game” line is strawmanning the case on him by saying it’s based on a dead and controversial player, when AFAIC that simply isn’t true. Then there’s “don’t lynch me, I post stuff. Lynch the lurkers” – which is a bit horrible because there’s no particular reason to think the lurkers are scum.

Incidentally, unreadable players whose flip wouldn’t tell us much and who don’t help the town are pretty good choices for teleporting, if you don’t have any mega scumreads.

@Hoopla: who is scum? Why are you posting so briefly, and not giving us reads?

@other people: is this usual for Hoopla?
In particular @pops: you are advocating the policy lynch of CSL for being unreadable. Do you find Hoopla more readable than CSL? If so, how do you read him?

Rhinox case is ok. Pretty poor posts on DGB, and deadline activity certainly fits well with scum. He goes on my scumlist, which looks now goes pops>CSL>Rhinox. I'd settle for any of these lynches if it got us a quick lynch.

[Fishythefish]

In all of these cases, I'd rule out a scumteam of the above sets of players, based on scum conciousness not wanting to be all bundled together. I loosely conclude that the names that appear in the most sets are slightly more town, as I have ruled out a small amount of possible teams they can be in - as opposed to other players who I have not.

Assuming your premise of those being unlikely scumteams, I'd just point out how little effect that should have on individual's scumminess. From a town POV, there are 45 scumteams each of the other 11 universe 1 players can be in. Ruling out a few isn't big at this stage.

I think that towards the closing stages of the ABR wagon, it was completely clear he was the lynch. It seems silly to read too much into the people who performed the formality of finishing the job off.

My vote for pops:

As I said in my last post, I dislike pops's play in the DGB wagon. I don't like the reasons he gave for voting either time he voted DGB, and I don’t like the way he hopped off the wagon in the middle, again with fairly bad reasoning. I find it difficult to believe pops was being honest about his opinions on DGB – much more like he was looking for excuses to hop on that wagon. Pops hasn’t given many votes this game, nor a huge number of cases, and not believing one of them was earnest is a significant thing.

Well, I was earnest *shrug*

My gut says funny things as I read pops’s posts. It doesn’t feel like his agenda is to find and lynch scum, but nor does it feel like he’s just attacking people to look good. The closest I can come is it feels like he is disagreeing people for its own sake. I don’t really know what to make of this – it could be another way to try and look protown, or it could just be a playstyle thing. This isn't part of my case.

I'm finding a lot more things I disagree with ITT than things I agree with. If I can figure out in which cases this is linked to alignment, I'd be good to go.

I don’t much like pop’s reactions to the wagon on him. The “DGB is going to ruin this game” line is strawmanning the case on him by saying it’s based on a dead and controversial player, when AFAIC that simply isn’t true. Then there’s “don’t lynch me, I post stuff. Lynch the lurkers” – which is a bit horrible because there’s no particular reason to think the lurkers are scum.

You have to understand what I'm saying. I feel like people are accusing eachother based on their varying interpretations of DGBtown. And usually that's a valid way to go about things, because the people who read the player wrong often did so because they are town. But DGB is a very unusual player and I think townies can have very varying judgments of her play, so they are using a point that isn't very valid.

I was saying "don't lynch me, i post stuff", in response to "lynch him, he doesn't post stuff". I think it's a very fair response. "there's no particular reason to think the lurkers are scum" is a false statement that shows a lack of awareness of site meta: lurking is positively correlated with scumming (not lynchworthy on its own, but this is an accepted tell).

I'm not voting any lurkers for lurking right now, if you'll notice (I'm voting CSL, for poor play up till now and a low level of expected readability), I'm saying if people want to be stupid and lynch someone only because they don't produce content, they should pick someone who, you know, ACTUALLY DOESN'T PRODUCE CONTENT.

Incidentally, unreadable players whose flip wouldn’t tell us much and who don’t help the town are pretty good choices for teleporting, if you don’t have any mega scumreads.

This is a good point.. unvote. Looks like we'll probably be doing push push pull, and the teleporter may very well push CSL for us. I'm a fan of "leave policy kills to the vig", there's a lot of good logic behind it.

@Hoopla: who is scum? Why are you posting so briefly, and not giving us reads?

@other people: is this usual for Hoopla?

The only unusual part is anyone complaining

In particular @pops: you are advocating the policy lynch of CSL for being unreadable. Do you find Hoopla more readable than CSL? If so, how do you read him?

Hoopla is much more readable than CSL. I've only played one game with the two of them, but I felt like I could see much more evidence of alignment out of Hoopla than out of CSL. She started out lolsheeping like this in the other game, then started actually posting occasionally. It was enough.

Rhinox case is ok. Pretty poor posts on DGB, and deadline activity certainly fits well with scum. He goes on my scumlist, which looks now goes pops>CSL>Rhinox. I'd settle for any of these lynches if it got us a quick lynch.

Wat. You can't have CSL lynched and teleported too. Why would you settle for his lynch if you yourself said it doesn't give any information?

unvote

. I'm going to take the advice Fish himself won't take. If we make lynches we know are suboptimal to catch up with the OU, we've already lost.

The point about the DGB thing is I don't see anyone voting you based on anything DGB said. It may be that she is a player with a difficult to read playstyle who thought you were scum; this certainly isn't an argument that invalidates any points that have been made against you.
On "not posting stuff" - I think the point here is that noone is attack you just for not scumhunting. It's that you've done little scumhunting while being very active, and also at least one of your votes doesn't ring true. This makes your argument - that other people are better lynches because the accusation of little content applies better to them - a totally invalid defense.
There is sometimes an assumption on this site that lurking is scummy. I've never seen any reason to believe that, and I'm uncomfortable with how often people's points about this turn into "won't we feel stupid if he

is

scum" - a policy lynch by another name. I think that trying to seem like you are contributing to the game while not committing yourself to positions or scumhunting is definitely scummy; the kind of lurking that is simply lack of content due to lack of time or interest I don't find alignment correlated.

Thanks for input on Hoopla-meta.

I think we need a lynch soon. Otherwise, the other universe may be on day 4 about when we start day 3 (particularly as it already looks very likely that it's Elmo vs. Lowell over there), and we'll permanently have one more of their scummy players than they have of ours. As such, I'm willing to compromise on getting the best lynch. CSL's lynch is a good kind of policy lynch, and he's fairly likely scum, but we won't get much information out of it. For me, that's acceptable.

[Fishythefish]

Fishy, my point is that DGB is difficult to read and it's really harsh that the brunt of the case of me is failing to read DGB correctly and attacking her insincerely. And ultimately, "attacking her insincerely" is really just "being on the wagon of a dead townie", because NO ONE said anything about me being insincere until after DGB flipped town.

Oh, I see your point now.

I don't believe your read on DGB from yesterday. The fact that DGB is hard to read doesn't change this. I'd probably be prepared to believe some reads on DGB more than I would on other players; but your reasons for voting her just don't seem like genuine reads.

Speaking for myself, I failed to think hard enough about your vote until after DGB was lynched. I don't think this makes my reason for voting any worse.

There's nothing in any case against you that attacks you for "failing to read DGB correctly". It is all "attacking her insincerely". The fact that I didn't spot this yesterday doesn't make it weaker today.

I'll comment on Gayle's case on myko after myko has said whatever he's going to say about it.

[Fishythefish]

@pops: I think your attacks on DGB look genuinely bad. They were pretty well the first thing that made me suspect you, and I won't write them off as confirmation bias.

@Hoopla: in what way is pops "winning against me"? I am pretty much saying that his posts look insincere; he is shrugging and saying that they were sincere (which is, of course, a fair defense). The arguing around the edges (confirmation bias, DGB is an odd player) is really not important. What do you think of pops's day 1 votes, particularly on DGB? Do you believe them?

Further evidence that Fishy's plan to keep Elli around is a bad idea.

What was the other evidence?

Did you read my plan? And the reasons for it? They are good reasons.

possible V/LA

: my access probably won't be so good for the rest of the week. I'll get on from time to time, but at the rate the thread is going I'm probably not going to be able to keep up. Things will improve again in 5-7 days time.

[Fishythefish]

So, that V/LA of mine and that deadline may, in effect, mean that I'm voting based on how things are right now. I'll try to be a bit more up to date than that, but if not my order of preference still goes:
pops>CSL>Rhinox
Although CSL>Rhinox is a pretty close run thing; CSL is a

very

good teleport.

[Fishythefish]

I don't have much to say. pops is the right lynch.

[Fishythefish]

I think pops should claim now.

It should be noted that if someone fake claims teleporter, now or at any other time, the teleporter has the option of teleporting away the fake claim - thus outing them - instead of counterclaiming. Whether this is a good idea depends on things in the other universe as well as over here, but it's at least worth considering.

[Fishythefish]

I'm fairly behind on this game.

I need to do a serious reread, at least of the last week or so and probably more. I also have read enough to know I won't change my mind about today's lynch. I intend to wait on the reread until I've seen pops's flip, otherwise I'll just end up doing it all over again in light of this.

I should have decent access until deadline, if something exciting happens.

[Fishythefish]

My instinct is to lynch pops anyway. 3 out of 4 teleporter claims are from scum in this situation (because scum always claims teleporter). More if we are any good at reading people.

However, if pops is fakeclaiming, the teleporter can just send him away. Lynching CSL is lynching an antitown player who has also has a slightly better than average chance of being scum.

Basically, I'm totally undecided. I think I'm slightly leaning towards CSL, but this is one of those situations where two decisions have pros and cons which don't lead to easy comparison, and there's no real way to choose between them.

unvote, vote: CSL

- I'll come back to pops if this one doesn't take off.

@pops: any breadcrumbs?

[Fishythefish]

unvote, vote: pops

[Fishythefish]

1437 from Hoopla was a scumslip. He knew pops's claim was fake.

[Fishythefish]

I intend to do a thorough reread of pops's interactions tonight.

Having said that, I really think Hoopla's slip late yesterday betrays that she knew pops's alignment. I also think this reads as fairly false, given Hoopla's play up to this point (ie. no scumhunting):

I understand why it looks bad, and all I can do is insist it was an honest mistake. Before speedlynching me tomorrow, at least let me live long enough to provide some reads and analysis with a scumflip, so my mislynch won't be a complete waste of a day. Thanks in advance!

- I agree with EK about publishing townreads. pops says we want to help the other universe with their pulling – no, we really, really don’t. That seems like an unlikely thought for town – it clearly hurts us if they pull well.

What? Quote it. I do not recall saying that.

Er... can't find it. I'll try and work out what I meant later.

That is, try to hold me off with a promise to "figure out" what went through your head as you made a post like a day ago so you can wait and see if I get distracted and forget you uber-misrepped me?

unvote, vote: FishytheFish

It's worth bearing in mind the outcome - I then read back and found I had switched "pops" and "EK" (at least, I think it was EK) in the post we were arguing about. pops then unvoted. I don't know how that affects your opinion of this.

[Fishythefish]

Day 3 Vote Count

CSL ( 0 )
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 0 )
farside22 ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
Hoopla ( 1 ) farside22
gayle ( 0 )
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
Raskol ( 0 )
Rhinox ( 0 )
Maelyn ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 11 ) Raskol Maelyn Rhinox gayle mykonian CSL fishythefish evilsnail ojanen Hoopla Ellibereth
Total Votes ( 12 )

With 12 alive, 7 needed to lynch.
Deadline: March 10th 10:30 EST

Begone, foul shade!

[Fishythefish]

Rereading pops, there's not a great deal there. I agree that CSL is unlikely scum from pops's attacks. I think the points made by myko and farside are fairly minor. From pops's bandwagon, there are a couple of players who seem very unlikely scum, which is nice. Hoopla is most likely scum.

vote: Hoopla

[Fishythefish]

The links between pops and Raskol/Rhinox/Hoopla/me in 1472 and 1474. Of these, I think the Raskol link is the most convincing, and even then isn't that exciting.

[Fishythefish]

unvote

. I'm uncomfortable about the way this wagon has gone, and Hoopla's analysis, while not exactly fleshed out, contains a lot I agree with. I need to think about this one, and reread people like Oj and Raskol.

@Hoopla: I believe I've voted CSL twice, both times briefly - once at the end of day 1, when I preferred his lynch to ABR (and it's hard to say I was wrong there), and once when pops had just claimed teleporter.

[Fishythefish]

There's nothing there which gives me a firmer scumread than Hoopa. I'm swayed somewhat by farside's statement that she is a very competent scumplayer. Also, the way Hoopla stepped up her scumhunting hugely as soon as she was in danger reeks of her valuing her own skin much more than lynching scum. This fits better with scum who was trying to lurk their way through than with town. That scumslip is pretty compelling. I think Hoopla is the lynch.

vote: Hoopla

[Fishythefish]

Responding to snail's 1504:
I gave plenty of reasoning to vote pops. IIRC, in the same post I voted for you - the result of a reread. I felt your responses to the wagon on you looked townie, so I moved to my next suspect.

On the ABR wagon: bear in mind the game state at that point. By the time I voted ABR, it was totally clear that he was the only person who could get lynched on day 1. I think of all the votes in the game to read something into, the last three on that wagon are the worst.

[Fishythefish]

I have no time to verify this now, but IIRC I was among the first few voters on pops's wagon. I suggest you reread the relevant section of the game.

[Fishythefish]

I'm up to speed with the game, and I've read people in iso. I have several town reads I'm fairly confident in, but beyond that no good idea of who the scum are. I haven't found the recent cases all that compelling. I'm rather conflicted about snail. He has some links to pops, and as I said early D2 his D1 play is under-the-radar-scum-like. I find his recent analysis of pops fairly unconvincing. On the other hand, some of his posts (particularly when being wagoned D2) feel very townish. I think overall, I'd say he was slightly scummy.

[Fishythefish]

I get the feeling I really really should think Fishy's town based on his pushing of pops and reversing the wagon situation from evilsnail leading pops 5-3 to 4-4, but my gut still isn't sure. Fishy, could you link to any towngames where you were way sensitive to little pressure?
Also, can you talk through your vote on pops in 1155 - what were the factors that led you to lay it down on pops rather than CSL?

I'm not sure that a little pressure on me is something I'd remember. The specific feeling I had in this game was that I was being suspected for a global playstyle-type that I didn't really understand and couldn't do anything about. The only attacks I recall having made on me - as scum or town - have been much more focused and easily dealt with. The feeling of powerlessness here definitely contributed to my paranoia.

Here's a game I got myself lynched in - I can't remember exactly how the wagon started, but I reacted to it badly and there may be something similar there.

Antartic Mafia

As for my pops vote in 1155; I had two suspects, I weighed the cases, and I decided I had more reason to vote pops. There's really not much more I can say on that vote. I explained my reasoning a little later (1165), which gives all my thoughts on pops at that time.

[Fishythefish]

With Rhinox leaving, that is the hammer.

[Fishythefish]

A reread of people:
In no particular order:
- Gayle's town. He'd be looking pretty good without going all out for pops for a long time; with that, he's practically clear.
- CSL's town. I don't think pops's play is likely bussing. Exception: if evilsnail

and

CSL were scum, pops's "policy lynch" hop on CSL would make sense again. Also, while "if I was scum, I'd be more interested" is craplogic, it's also the kind of thing town post much more than scum, in my experience.
- myko's town. I've got a whopping gut read here, which I'll try to explain some time.
- Ojanen is a tricky read. There's not too much there. She doesn't commit to a stance on the pops lynch - but I understand that; I certainly wouldn't says pops was obvscum. The easiest things to judge in mafia are well-fleshed out reads on me; and Ojanen's is convincing. I've not been properly up to speed for large sections of the game, and my play has been less than brilliant. I can well believe her conflict about my alignment; which makes me lean to Ojtown - but jury is very much out here.
- I think snail is quite likely scum. He was under-the-radar day 1 (as discussed earlier). There are decent pops-snail links. There are some posts of his I get townreads off, but I'm inclined to say my gut is wrong on those. I need to revisit those posts. It's also notable that he's the only likely busser on the pops wagon.
- Raskol/Spyrex; I get some scummy vibes from his early theory posts, particularly the rather unthinking line of "we're all in it together! Don't screw U2 up!" - which wasn't really relevant, and could lead to scum here being kept together. This may be just because I think they're wrong, but I don't think so. I need to reread the rest of his play.
- All the U2 players are town/U2 scum. For the moment, it's relatively unimportant which.

So, my starting point for today is suspicions on evilsnail, and worries about Spyrex, with a need to reread a bit on both. I also need to think about how the Hoopla wagon went - although I'm not overly optimistic about the information content of that.

Some scumhunting irrelevant stuff;
Day 1 wasn't completely useless, and is worth a read at some stage. But anyone replacing/teleporting in would do well to concentrate on days 2-3 first; you'll get much more value per hour.
Tonight our teleporter might want to consider kicking off Operation: Back Where They Belong. Certainly if we lynch scum, and probably even if we don't.

vote: evilsnail

[Fishythefish]

She doesn't commit to a stance on the pops lynch - but I understand that; I certainly wouldn't says pops was obvscum.

But you were stacking up cases against him. Do you mean not obvscum from general expected average scummer perspective or how?

I didn't find pops obvscum - and I can see why people wouldn't share my middlingly strong scumread on him. It's not my experience that my arguments are so compelling that all town players tend to fall in line.

Fishy: his pops vote looked like a bus, regardless of the fact that it steered attention away from my wagon. And he was late to the ABR wagon, which seems to mostly have been town-driven.

Why does my pops vote "look like a bus"? I think neither in position nor in substance does it look like a bus.

By the time I voted for ABR, he was dead. Here is how his wagon went:
p37: Albert B. Rampage ( 6 ) gayle DrippingGoofball elvis_knits farside22 popsofctown CSL
Here, ABR is already at L-2. There are no other plausible candidates for a lynch (although a few people try to make CSL happen), and we have two days left.
At this point, for setup reasons, I advocate a temporary unvote from someone. DGB obliges. Also, I say that I have gut town read on ABR, and will only vote him in a deadline situation.

p38: U2 lynches. At this point, there is about 24 hours until deadline. The next best wagon (CSL) has three votes - ABR has 5, plus an effective vote from DGB. ABR is dead.
I then cast my vote, to get a lynch before deadline.
Plum does the same.
myk also votes him (saying "let's end this" - which I presume is an "it's deadline" thing).
And you are trying to draw information from these three votes? At this point, it really was just a question of who hammered. My play around here is trying to get a CSL lynch, then voting ABR to get any lynch at all - it's quite clearly not of a scum who sees a town-driven wagon and jumps on it; that was totally unnecessary for the scum.

Last time you made this point, I said briefly that ABR was already the only lynch, and that those votes were bad ones to read anything into. If you were worried about the validity of your case, you would have gone back, and read the game at that point, and realised that your blind votecount analysis comes up with bad results here. Ignoring me totally, and then restating your point later when asked for reads, is not the action of someone who is genuinely trying to find scum.

Things to do: reread Raskol, myk.

[Fishythefish]

OK. How does my post (and possibly a reread of late day 1) affect your feelings about the end of the ABR wagon?

[Fishythefish]

unvote

. I know I'm flip-flopping heroically over snail, but the more I read him, the less I think he's scum. Declaring townreads on everyone is so not a scum move.

[Fishythefish]

What does OTT mean?

I hpoe and expect that the rereads i owe this game will be done within 24 hours.

[Fishythefish]

Vote: Spyrex

From Raskol's posts, I get a bit of a scumread. His strategy discussion reads like an attempt to look like he cares about the town, while actually containing little. A few other things - he eggs on the early Gayle bw, and then votes me for my part in it, which is a bit inconsistent - from post 104, you wouldn't guess that Raskol considered Gayle's early play town. At a time when he was starting to come under pressure for IIoA, this could be an artificial read to placate people. His total absence during pops's wagoning is interesting.

Re: my townread on myko - it's always difficult to explain gut reads, but I'll give it a go. Reading his posts, it feels like he wants attention paid to his thoughts and his cases - rather than like he's worried about what people will think about him. I get the strong impression that he sits down and types exactly what he thinks, often fairly fast - rather than carefully constructing his posts. I associate all this with town. And at the end of the day, reading his posts makes me think he believes what he's saying.

I think making bold, definite and somewhat pointless statements about U2 is a very natural thing to do. Since U2 is of less interest than U1 to us, we don't have to scumhunt a lot there, and don't need to back up our cases so much. I don't find Spyrex's case convincing.

[Fishythefish]

Day 4 Vote Count

CSL ( 1 ) Ellibereth
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 0 )
starbuck ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
gayle ( 0 )
mykonian ( 1 ) spyrex
ojanen ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
spyrex ( 2 ) mykonian fishythefish
Haylen ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 6 ) gayle ojanen starbuck evilsnail Haylen CSL
Total Votes ( 10 )

With 10 alive, 6 needed to lynch.
Deadline: March 17th 12:00 EST

@Fishy:

Show me these U1 cases.

Further, show me you doing the 'natural' thing and commenting on U2 like that.

I used "cases" to mean scumhunting generally, not specifically large things attacking one player. mykonian has done a lot of scumhunting, and I think it's genuine.

Me commenting on U2: I've not been following U2 all that avidly, but IIRC I QFT'd a post of DGB saying that Jack was very likely scum. I think other players who have commented on U2 have made similarly certain statements to myko, and have never given cases. If I was going to post about U2, I wouldn't consider posting a detailed case.

[Fishythefish]

*looks at what Haylen wants answered*

@ Everyone - who do you think would be the most benificial to lynch today and why?

For starters, certainly someone from this universe.
Within that, I think Spyrex is the most likely scum, and I can't see any other good criteria for a "beneficial lynch" atm.

[Fishythefish]

This is ridiculous.

Lets MOVE. Apathy is going to kill any chance we've got.

The last sentence just feels wrong. We're not doing that badly, and this appeal to fear isn't justified.

I think Spyrex is a better lynch than snail:

- Read snail. I think he's very good at admitting he's wrong, and does so in a townie way, with no attempt to backtrack on previous stances. I think snail's admitting his mistakes - and reactions to bw's on him (see the bw early on d2) - are the main source of my town gut feelings about snail.
- Snail's recent comment that he finds everyone in the game town is completely credible (how many people can say they have a strong scumread?), and not very scummish.
- I agree that snail gives very mixed signals. I think that the town ones are stronger than the scum ones.
- There are some reasons to think Raskol was scum (see my last post on the matter). I don't think Spy's play has been terribly impressive - I very much disagree with him over myko - but I haven't really seen enough to read him for his own play yet.

@mod:

I'm V/LA this weekend, Friday morning - Monday evening

[Fishythefish]

I think that scum tend to worry more about them and their arguments looking good, and so are more prone to trying to prove themselves right to justify previous arguments. I think that being able to admit your arguments were wrong is something townies are better at - particularly when your arguments were not obviously wrong.

[Fishythefish]

Of course that is WIFOM. Everything that makes anyone think anyone else more likely town is WIFOM - doesn't make it wrong or useless. I think snail is displaying a trait townies display more than scum - and that makes him more likely town. The things he did that were scummy still make him scummy.

@Spy: saying I think you're scum for your case on myk is a misrep. I think you scum (though not that strongly, really) for Raskol's play.

[Fishythefish]

@Spy: fair enough, no misrep there. Actually, I don't think your case on myko is scummy, just wrong. I phrased that post rather badly.

V/LA starting a little early - I probably won't post here again before Monday.

[Fishythefish]

Back from V/LA. Too tired to post much right now. I need to work out what happened recently.

On U1 players:
We're down to my townreads. And noone has flipped scum since pops. This is a Bad Thing.
Reads which are up to date and I like:
CSL, evilsnail.
Reads which need reevaluating:
myko (read Spyrex's death), Phate (why did I find Gayle so townie?).
I'm hoping and betting Plum is scum. It rhymes and everything.

On U2 players:
From teleports:
spring is almost certainly town, sent over here for the scum over there to win.
DRK is almost certainly scum, given that they haven't won yet.
I need to think harder about the mechanics/WIFOM of the situation to see if this is actually true or not. I'm pretty confident in the first one though. Things should become clearer when U2 finishes up.
I intend to judge U2 players on their actions here alone, at least for now. I don't have the time to do otherwise.

[Fishythefish]

Much depends on the course of events in U2. For now, I am loathe to comment on U2 players, or the likely number of U2 scum over here.

I remembered why Gayle's town. His play is generally good, and he went for pops in a very non-bussing way.

There's just no way pops was on a team with CSL.

So, PoE: two of snail, Plum, and myko are scum.

The more I read snail, the more my gut insists that he is town. The remaining U1 scum are myko and Plum. My townread on myko is something I feel is more easily fakeable than that on snail - I look at myko and I think "he's really scumhunting". I look at snail and I think "that's how I think as town" - or, sometimes "that's what I think about this game". The latter, for me, is much more convincing.

vote: mykonian

To the other universe:

Plum is scum. This universe struggles to have even one good U1 scum candidate, let alone two.

[Fishythefish]

@myko: I think you scum through PoE. Sure, I could go through your posts, and most likely I could put up a case against you from them. But the points in it would be minor, and it wouldn't convince anyone of anything. It would be totally pointless, and pretty much a lie.

To answer your "if you were confirmed town" question: I'd vote snail. pops's moves shortly before his lynch just could not come from pops/CSL. He stalled his claim until nearly deadline. If there hadn't been a counterclaim - which there might not have been, especially after my comment about teleporters teleporting fakeclaims - CSL would have been lynched. pops would have been teleported. It would have been a huge disaster for the scum.
Gayle is only slightly less clear cut - his attacking pops really doesn't feel like bussing. I suppose it could be, and I'd lynch him before CSL.

I don't feel I'm being lazy here. PoE is not laziness. If you are town, myk, I urge you to work out who the hell is scum and then tell me. I have read the alive U1 players a lot, and I really like my reads.

Operation Work-Out-U2-Alignments is scheduled to begin as soon as I can be bothered.

[Fishythefish]

Urgh. Noone is scum. I'm thoroughly unimpressed.

*Reads role PM really, really carefully*

Nope, still town.

unvote

In a couple of days, I'm going to find the time to hunt down my gut townreads on myko and snail and nail them to the wall. Again. One of them is right, and one of them is wrong, and I have no idea which.

[Fishythefish]

So, by my count we have 2 of each scum, 3 of each town. So we should just lynch the mostly likely scum. That is, DRK. I really don't see FFFF using the teleport like that if there was only him in U2 - the scum teleport is something to save for really near endgame.

vote: DRK

His defence really doesn't make any sense. sl's head was blatantly not "on the chopping block" when that teleport was made.

Re: U1. I think we're looking at a snail/myko team. CSL looks really town from pops's play. Gayle looks really town from Gayle's play.

I am not going to have time to read U2 any time soon. If U2 players would like to analyse it, that would be lovely - otherwise I'll scumhunt based on your activities over here.

[Fishythefish]

My impression is that once the teleporter dies, we won't get another, as the other universe is closed (less importantly, I also think that our teleporter is going to flip vanilla).

@mod:

is that correct?

I'm slightly sad that SB has claimed this early, and I'm inclined to say the teleporter shouldn't claim. No reason to guide kills away from scum.

[Fishythefish]

A comment: we don't actually have a town teleporter. I just realised that Oj got killed last night, so we weren't due to get one until tonight. Now, we never will, if my reading of the rules is right. I thought about leaving it until scum claimed teleporter to say this, but really we're going to be lynching them anyway, and I was worried about teleporter claims after my death.

[Fishythefish]

Haylen is town. Scum can count to three, when they have the prop of their scumteam to help them. I don't think they fake things like that much, either.

[Fishythefish]

Elli? Elli isn't cleared. Is he?

[Fishythefish]

Hmmm.

Haylen: when you said that you and DRK couldn't be the scumteam because there was only one scum over here, you were obviously wrong. Because there were three U2 scum, and only one of them died in U2. What was the thought process that led you to your conclusion?

[Fishythefish]

Incidentally, I'm more than ready for a DRK hammer. He is today's lynch.