Teleportation Mafia Universe ONE (MAFIA A WINS!)

[evilsnail]

Day 3 Vote Count

CSL ( 0 )
elvis_knits ( 0 )
evilsnail ( 1 ) Hoopla
farside22 ( 0 )
fishythefish ( 0 )
Hoopla ( 3 ) farside22 CSL evilsnail
gayle ( 0 )
mykonian ( 0 )
ojanen ( 0 )
Ellibereth ( 0 )
Raskol ( 0 )
Rhinox ( 0 )
Maelyn ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 8 ) Raskol Maelyn Rhinox gayle mykonian ojanen Ellibereth fishythefish
Total Votes ( 12 )

With 12 alive, 7 needed to lynch.
Deadline: March 10th 10:30 EST

/ghostslay

[farside22]

evil: I don't see you giving a reason for you vote on Hoopla. You have been very under the radar not saying much about anything and doing mostly parroting.

That's a bit unfair. It's pretty clear I'm voting Hoopla for the slip fishy caught. Okay, so I've followed others in that vote, but, other than that, I think the accusation of "parroting" is pretty inaccurate.

have you really established a case on anyone in this game?
The only time I really saw you was when fishy attacked you based on your own scum meta comments.

[evilsnail]

Anyway, I'm starting to feel like there could be a noose in my near future. I don't think I've contributed enough in this game, so I want to make sure I at least made some sort of contribution to the town's efforts. First, I'm going to do a global analysis of pops's voting behaviour and the various wagons on pops.

The data are mostly drawn from votecounts.

wagons pops was on

DGB

- (4) - myko

ABR

pops

fishy Plum Rhinox
This was the wagon on DGB. Now, what is interesting about this wagon is that it was at four votes for a long time, with myko, ABR, pops and fishy voting. On the basis of this, I think we can rule out a myko-pops-fishy scum group. I can see one scum joining pops on the DGB wagon, but not two.

ABR

(8) gayle (

DGB

)

elvis

farside

pops

CSL fishy Plum myko
This is the ABR wagon, although DGB wasn't on the lynch eventually. I'm going to return to this wagon and how it is (possibly) significant in the next post.

CSL (2) Rhinox

pops

One of a number of little CSL wagons. Doubt two scum would be pursuing a policy lynch together. Rhinox is probably town.

farside (1)

pops

A farside vote that pops pursued. Especially considering farside's position on the various pops wagons, I think farside is likely town.

CSL (3) (Rhinox) (Hoopla)

pops

More on the CSL wagon. The same consideration that applied to Rhinox on the first one should perhaps apply to Hoopla. Hmm...

CSL (5)

pops

fishy evilsnail Hoopla Elli
This is the CSL wagon at the end of Day 2 that developed after pops's claim and died at elvis's counterclaim. It wasn't in any of the votecounts I looked at, but I figured I'd add it since it's been the focus of discussion. I still think the CSL vote wasn't as bad as some people have made it out to be, but I do acknowledge that a scum player would likely have joined it at that point. If we assume this, then it's likely one of fishy and Hoopla (and me, I guess) is scum.

[evilsnail]

have you really established a case on anyone in this game? The only time I really saw you was when fishy attacked you based on your own scum meta comments.

Well, not as much as I should have, but I did try to build cases on Raskol and CSL.

[evilsnail]

Okay, now I'm going to turn to the wagons on pops.

wagons on pops

pops

- (2) - gayle farside
This was a Day 1 wagon on pops, before pops became a real lynch candidate, and, therefore, it is potentially quite informative. Gayle and farside definitely get townie points.

pops

- (1) - Hoopla
This was a brief wagon when Hoopla replaced in Day 1. It was very brief, so I don't know if it is informative. It looks a little like distancing, because it doesn't seem a serious vote.

pops

- (7) - gayle (Hoopla)

elvis

fishy Elli farside CSL Hoopla
Gayle's position on this wagon I don't think is a scum one. I think it's highly likely that a wagon this big attracted a scumbuddy, though. Personally, I think the fishy and the Hoopla vote were the most off. Hoopla only voted pops after being reminded that she was saying she preferred a pops vote and fishy jumped off a wagon on me with little real reasoning.

pops

- (9) - gayle

elvis

CSL farside fishy evilsnail ojanen Hoopla Elli
The lynch. I'm not sure this is very informative, since it was incredibly obvious pops was scum at this point.

Conclusions

Just on the basis of their voting with regards to pops:

- likely town: gayle, farside, CSL, Rhinox
- poss scumbuddies: fishy, Hoopla

Armed with these conclusions, I think it is interesting to return to the ABR lynch. I've added green highlighting for likely townies.

ABR

- (8) -

gayle

(

DGB

)

elvis

farside

pops

CSL

fishy Plum myko
Now what's interesting is this wagon has a lot of confirmed/likely townies on it. I think it's likely that there are some scum on the tail end of this wagon, taking advantage of the case on ABR built by townies. A big townie-driven wagon is an incredibly juicy target for scum. As such, I think it's likely there's scum in the last three votes, fishy, Plum and myko.

I'm going to leave it there for tonight. I want to draw this all together with some fine-grained analysis of individual players tomorrow.

[farside22]

If plum is scum that would be good for us and knoweledge for the U2 as we would not have U1 scum here but we wouldn't know for sure with eli and may in this Universe.
gee I wonder now why I wanted the U2 people gone in the first place

Evil: Why does hoopla's vote on pops look like scum bussing where me and gayle are given town points?

[Ellibereth]

I don't think Hoopla is scum.

Since I know sometimes your reads are completely off on players that are scum can I ask why?

Good point, I'm probably wrong.
My read on Flare stuck. Whatevs.

[Fishythefish]

There's nothing there which gives me a firmer scumread than Hoopa. I'm swayed somewhat by farside's statement that she is a very competent scumplayer. Also, the way Hoopla stepped up her scumhunting hugely as soon as she was in danger reeks of her valuing her own skin much more than lynching scum. This fits better with scum who was trying to lurk their way through than with town. That scumslip is pretty compelling. I think Hoopla is the lynch.

vote: Hoopla

[Ellibereth]

Whatever

Vote: Hoopla

That gut read is just probably another massive fail on my part...

[farside22]

Whatever

Vote: Hoopla

That gut read is just probably another massive fail on my part...

Listen I'm not trying to slam you or anything but gut reads are difficult to prove. I'm starting to see cold logic on event as a better view then gut.
Not all the time but I have seen town do some really dumb moves and after you read your like yay he's being dumb not scummy. But it's based on overall play in the game.
Hoopla you know I love you but I now firmly believe you to be a manipulator.
Your little slip on Pops and him transporting himself is a slip. You stated you didn't know or wasn't paying attention but you knew enough to know that a scum teleporter can transport himself which in my mind tells me you knew Pops was fake claiming.

[farside22]

Mod: What is the word on Raskol? Is he being replaced?

I just saw him post in another game and it irks me when players give up one game but are fine with other games.

[evilsnail]

Evil: Why does hoopla's vote on pops look like scum bussing where me and gayle are given town points?

A number of reasons:
- better and earlier position on the wagon
- you were both on the small Day 1 wagon on pops
- the way Hoopla voted pops

Hoopla, so you seem to prefer a pops lynch to a CSL one? Why does your vote not reflect that?

More later.

You're right, thanks Ojanen!

Unvote, vote: pops

[Fishythefish]

Responding to snail's 1504:
I gave plenty of reasoning to vote pops. IIRC, in the same post I voted for you - the result of a reread. I felt your responses to the wagon on you looked townie, so I moved to my next suspect.

On the ABR wagon: bear in mind the game state at that point. By the time I voted ABR, it was totally clear that he was the only person who could get lynched on day 1. I think of all the votes in the game to read something into, the last three on that wagon are the worst.

[evilsnail]

I really dislike snail's 1134. Because, up until then, I was pretty sure I'd struck scum. But that post really makes me doubt my read, both because I really believe it on a gut level, and it makes so little sense for scumsnail. At that point, snail was being voted by four people. Three of them had the same point against him, and then there was me. I'd made a case which had attracted no support, and a fair amount of criticism. Why on earth would scumsnail roll over and basically say that I had a case? Going after my case is such a natural play there.

unvote

. I don't believe that post came from scum.

vote: pops

- since he's scum and all.

This was your pops vote. The reason I felt this was a good bussing candidate is because you established the logic of your vote in a post in which you voted me, but then seemed to wait until the pops lynch became relatively inevitable until you actually voted pops.

[Fishythefish]

I have no time to verify this now, but IIRC I was among the first few voters on pops's wagon. I suggest you reread the relevant section of the game.

[evilsnail]

It was the fourth vote on the wagon, at which point I think it would have been clear to a scumbuddy that pops was becoming a liability. However, I did do a re-read and you kinda did de-rail the wagon on me, which was bigger at the time, with your switch. So, that does speak in your favour.

[mykonian]

Not voting on the beginning of Day 1 is only a scum tell because it's the RVS.

The only reason I'm not as involved as I should be is because the thread is huge and I'm having trouble getting my head around it. This coupled with the fact that I've been quite busy of late.

I have a fairly clear sense of who's town. I have good feelings about elvis, farside, Ojanen and pops. Scum: you, CSL, fishythefish. But, to be honest, my cases are fairly weak.

You I mainly have a bad feeling about still because your vote feels a bit OMGUSy and your pattern of involvement isn't much better than mine. Sure, I posted some theory-related fluff, but most of that was early on. And your vote on me keeps your hands as clean as mine.

You've made exactly one vote all game, and only a pretty low percentage of your posts actually contain anything that serves to encourage or discourage a lynch of anyone. You've taken few stances and made few connections, either pro or con, with almost anyone. This is a kind of play that makes it very hard to pin anything on you, if you're scum, and if you're town, hurts your effectiveness. Assuming you're relatively competent means I'm inclined to think you're more likely to be scum overall.

That's what I mean by keeping your hands clean and whatever else I might be accused of, it's not something I've been doing, I think.

I think this makes a Raskol Evilsnail scumteam quite unlikely.

I think I trust Gayle the most;

Vote: popsofctown

Can we please stop arguing and notice the person sliding thru the game here and add pressure?

I don't know about this vote. If Hoopla is town, this is pressure. I don´t think it is a tell, contrary to what Farside says. It is so obvious.

Evilsnail, you are an experienced player.

Since when is consistency town?

Where do I say that? It just shows that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon.

And Evil, you name it with your suspicion on DGB. As town, you wouldn't have to worry about consistancy, but as scum you really want to show you aren't blatantly bandwagonning...

After he is accused by DGB he says it only shows he was consistent. I think only scum is really caring about being consistent, so I asked about it.

I don't get your point.

I only pointed out that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon. I didn't say consistency was a town tell or anything. Both town and scum players can be consistent.

I was addressing the interpretation fishythefish seems to be pushing (that I expressed suspicion of DGB in order to be able to jump onto her wagon), which is invalidated by this.

This strikes me as odd now. I don´t like how Evil misses the point here.

unvote vote Evilsnail

Small tell, but I really see scum motivations here.

Ugh

Still not done.

Re my scum tells: It's been a long time since I played as scum, so I don't fully remember, but I definitely like busing my scumbuddies. That's fun. Other than that, I tend to be more cautious with my vote. When I'm town, I have very strong gut feelings about people and that's difficult to fake. So, if I'm using more intuition than sense, that's usually a sign that I'm town.

^^^ Cautious with his vote...not following gut as much...doesn't that describe his current play?

What I said then too. Elli makes good points here.

I don't mind pops's justification for his CSL vote so much, even though I'm not a huge fan of policy lynches.

The observation that there was no "obvscum" struck me as strange, though. There's plenty of people making cases. Heck, there's a bandwagon on me that people seem to like. By making these wagons out to be non-existent or weak, he's basically making the reasoning behind his vote out to be weaker than it is.

I should take a break, I'm starting to tunnel.

Evilsnails case is meh. If anything farside puts herself in a position to go any direction she wants more than evilsnail does.

another break. I'm just finding what I want to find, I think.

I really dislike snail's 1134. Because, up until then, I was pretty sure I'd struck scum. But that post really makes me doubt my read, both because I really believe it on a gut level, and it makes so little sense for scumsnail. At that point, snail was being voted by four people. Three of them had the same point against him, and then there was me. I'd made a case which had attracted no support, and a fair amount of criticism. Why on earth would scumsnail roll over and basically say that I had a case? Going after my case is such a natural play there.

unvote

. I don't believe that post came from scum.

vote: pops

- since he's scum and all.

His reason for voting pops? Could very easily be distancing. but I don't know Fishy this way, I wouldn't expect him to do this as scum or as town.

My vote for pops:

As I said in my last post, I dislike pops's play in the DGB wagon. I don't like the reasons he gave for voting either time he voted DGB, and I don’t like the way he hopped off the wagon in the middle, again with fairly bad reasoning. I find it difficult to believe pops was being honest about his opinions on DGB – much more like he was looking for excuses to hop on that wagon. Pops hasn’t given many votes this game, nor a huge number of cases, and not believing one of them was earnest is a significant thing.

My gut says funny things as I read pops’s posts. It doesn’t feel like his agenda is to find and lynch scum, but nor does it feel like he’s just attacking people to look good. The closest I can come is it feels like he is disagreeing people for its own sake. I don’t really know what to make of this – it could be another way to try and look protown, or it could just be a playstyle thing. This isn't part of my case.

I don’t much like pop’s reactions to the wagon on him. The “DGB is going to ruin this game” line is strawmanning the case on him by saying it’s based on a dead and controversial player, when AFAIC that simply isn’t true. Then there’s “don’t lynch me, I post stuff. Lynch the lurkers” – which is a bit horrible because there’s no particular reason to think the lurkers are scum.

Incidentally, unreadable players whose flip wouldn’t tell us much and who don’t help the town are pretty good choices for teleporting, if you don’t have any mega scumreads.

@Hoopla: who is scum? Why are you posting so briefly, and not giving us reads?

@other people: is this usual for Hoopla?
In particular @pops: you are advocating the policy lynch of CSL for being unreadable. Do you find Hoopla more readable than CSL? If so, how do you read him?

Rhinox case is ok. Pretty poor posts on DGB, and deadline activity certainly fits well with scum. He goes on my scumlist, which looks now goes pops>CSL>Rhinox. I'd settle for any of these lynches if it got us a quick lynch.

Gets explained here. I'm happy with fish.

Too bad Fishy and Evilsnail didn't use all that time they spent arguing to hunt far more obvious scum: "Lurk and Lie" CSL,"Wagon Hop" Pops, and "Respond to everything with a flurry of misleading arguments" Myko.

The people voting evilsnail for Elli's point are being ridiculous. Why do you guys keep going for this "scumslip" nonsense? Elli made a similar point about Jack, and look what happened. Please don't lynch over such a stupid reason.

I like this post, and not just because of the point about me. Scum-Gayle has no real reason to tie herself to three wagons that clearly. It could really come back to haunt her.

Pops's response to Ojanen seems off. Considering that pops is pursuing a policy lynch on CSL and not making a case on anyone himself, dismissing all available cases out of hand is really unproductive. Also, I think Ojanen made some fair points about Rhinox's play. I read over pops's ISO and she hasn't contributed real cases in a long time (which I realise now some players have been pointing out for a while). I don't know how this measures up to pops's meta, but it is certainly not helping us.

Why didn't you vote for pops here, evil?

omg ur right. lynching my strongest town read makes WAY more sense than a policy lynch.

vote: Rhinox

. except no,

unvote

.

Stringing up people as fast as humanly possible is the scum's idea of productive. Which is the root of why several people are suspicious of you.

Your response has nothing to do with what I said. I never said you should vote Rhinox. Just that it seems weird that you've been dismissing all of these cases without giving us anything better. I would understand if you felt you had a stronger case, but you don't.

That has nothing to do with stringing up people as fast as possible either. And I don't see how this is at the "root of why several people are suspicious of me." I'm being wagonned for a lack of activity/content, which is precisely the opposite.

If this is you readying yourself to vote me, please try harder next time.

Never mind, they aren't buddies.

ugh I'm truly sorry everyone that I haven't been keeping up. I haven't really read anything since my last post but i promise I'll get something up tomorrow.

2 thoughts for now:

CSL is scum and pops is town

(I think)

.

Bolded to make my point.

I can get behind a pops lynch today, especially if CSL gets teleported to U2.

getting caught up, but... can someone tell me why shipping CSL over to the OU is any better than lynching him?

Both options (lynching and tele) remove him from our universe, and IF he is town, brings mafia closer to majority.

So, if you want CSL teleported, you should be OK with his lynch as well. If you think CSL is town so you don't want to lynch him, but still want him teleported, that strategy is scummy as hell.

Can you explain why a policy lynch is better then lynching someone you find extremely scummy?

Rhinox could very well be Pops his buddy. Seen this post where he doesn't directly comment on pops, but supports his wagon, and on the same time the only counterwagon for pops.

Rhinox seems to be pushing the policy lynch thing.

False, actually.

Hoopla, so you seem to prefer a pops lynch to a CSL one? Why does your vote not reflect that?

More later.

You're right, thanks Ojanen!

Unvote, vote: pops

Rhinox has the annoying way of almost no comments close to the pop's lynch (for example, where Pops is asked to claim)

Unvote, Vote: CSL

This is after the claim, fishy just came with decent analysis, and Evil bandwagonned.

Then Hoopla's slip.

Unvote, Vote: pops

Awesome.

Yeah, I like to lynch him. Even before Hoopla.

Seen fishy's plan, it would have been quite profitable to wait for the night to have the real teleporter to teleport Pops away.

Evil's "awesome" could very well have been honest. But it certainly was only there to score townie points.

Fishy's reaction to this events, together with his finding of Hoopla's tell make him even more town in my eyes.

You miss Farside mostly here. She's town. No way she is scum with Pops.

unvote vote Evil

I think he is better then Hoopla.

[farside22]

myko: Why do you say

Never mind, they aren't buddies.

in regards to pops and evil and then vote evil at the end.
You don't seem very clear on your reasoning in that post.

[mykonian]

Evil sounded annoyed towards Pops, but I think in the end, it was buddying. Esspecially seen that those "OMGUS" feelings didn't really come back later.

[evilsnail]

Well, I was kinda expecting this. My posts around the pops wagon don't look great and there was already a little wagon on me Day 2.

Evilsnail, you are an experienced player.

Since when is consistency town?

Where do I say that? It just shows that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon.

And Evil, you name it with your suspicion on DGB. As town, you wouldn't have to worry about consistancy, but as scum you really want to show you aren't blatantly bandwagonning...

After he is accused by DGB he says it only shows he was consistent. I think only scum is really caring about being consistent, so I asked about it.

I don't get your point.

I only pointed out that my opinion of DGB predated the wagon. I didn't say consistency was a town tell or anything. Both town and scum players can be consistent.

I was addressing the interpretation fishythefish seems to be pushing (that I expressed suspicion of DGB in order to be able to jump onto her wagon), which is invalidated by this.

This strikes me as odd now. I don´t like how Evil misses the point here.

unvote vote Evilsnail

Small tell, but I really see scum motivations here.

I still don't get what you mean here. I make an offhand reference to consistency, to show that what fishy (?) interpreted as readying to jump on a wagon came from an earlier suspicion. What's the scum tell?

I don't mind pops's justification for his CSL vote so much, even though I'm not a huge fan of policy lynches.

The observation that there was no "obvscum" struck me as strange, though. There's plenty of people making cases. Heck, there's a bandwagon on me that people seem to like. By making these wagons out to be non-existent or weak, he's basically making the reasoning behind his vote out to be weaker than it is.

I should take a break, I'm starting to tunnel.

What I meant here is that I don't go for policy lynches myself, but I don't think pursuing them is necessarily scummy.

Pops's response to Ojanen seems off. Considering that pops is pursuing a policy lynch on CSL and not making a case on anyone himself, dismissing all available cases out of hand is really unproductive. Also, I think Ojanen made some fair points about Rhinox's play. I read over pops's ISO and she hasn't contributed real cases in a long time (which I realise now some players have been pointing out for a while). I don't know how this measures up to pops's meta, but it is certainly not helping us.

Why didn't you vote for pops here, evil?

To be completely honest with you, I didn't want to seem scummy. At the time, I was being accused of being opportunistic around the major wagons and I was worried it would just attract more attention. I hate getting lynched as town.

Unvote, Vote: CSL

This is after the claim, fishy just came with decent analysis, and Evil bandwagonned.

I thought CSL was a good compromise lynch and that pops could just be teleported to the other universe if he were lying. I wasn't bandwagonning, though. I was just returning to earlier suspicions. I've been pretty explicit about my suspicions of CSL at the end of Day 1 and the start of Day 2. At the time, my scum candidates were pops, fishy and CSL. Fishy didn't seem like a viable lynch at deadline, so I went for CSL.

Evil's "awesome" could very well have been honest. But it certainly was only there to score townie points.

It was just my first response. I thought elvis's claim was really cool, with how she put all the important bits in HUGE letters.

Evil sounded annoyed towards Pops, but I think in the end, it was buddying. Esspecially seen that those "OMGUS" feelings didn't really come back later.

This isn't true. That whole exchange with pops made me feel much better about a pops lynch. I said a couple times later that I was willing to hammer him. I would have been the one to hammer him if he'd claimed townie instead of teleporter.

[Ojanen]

Hello, anti-prod post. went dark on access due to being abroad, but I'll have internet plus a lot of free time starting from tonight, with reread and content. this should be the last post of this kind your resident excuse poster needs to post, my february of death is over.

[mykonian]

Evil, I consider it a tell when somebody uses "consistency" as a good thing, about himself. It is the same as saying "See how town I am", except it isn't true here (being consistent =/= being town), because it is almost the opposite. (trying to be consistent = scum, quite often)

[mykonian]

ok. This will become the first round where teleportation will hurt us. We have a lot of players we want gone, the game is slowing down since a lot of players have trouble to keep up, and tbh, I don't see it happening that we'll find a replacement for Raskol soon.

And even worse: we'll have to pull.

SO GET ACTIVE

In stead of going stupidly for Hoopla, and saying nothing else, get investigating. There must at least be one other scum there, and nobody thinks about looking for him. It will only become harder to get back in if you have lurked for a few days more.

[Fishythefish]

I'm up to speed with the game, and I've read people in iso. I have several town reads I'm fairly confident in, but beyond that no good idea of who the scum are. I haven't found the recent cases all that compelling. I'm rather conflicted about snail. He has some links to pops, and as I said early D2 his D1 play is under-the-radar-scum-like. I find his recent analysis of pops fairly unconvincing. On the other hand, some of his posts (particularly when being wagoned D2) feel very townish. I think overall, I'd say he was slightly scummy.

[Hoopla]

unvote

. I'm uncomfortable about the way this wagon has gone, and Hoopla's analysis, while not exactly fleshed out, contains a lot I agree with. I need to think about this one, and reread people like Oj and Raskol.

I've seen Hoopla just perform the best scum performance I have seen in many a year here at MS so I'm not quiet let me clear Hoopla right now.
I do agree that evil looks scummy, mcscummerson but don't think for a second hoopla would not bus her scum partner in a heartbeat to look more town.

Being capable of manipulation isn't a case, it's not even a point - and I don't see anything else you've got beyond the 'slip' I made.

I'm really disliking Ellibereth suddenly changing his mind with little to no persuasion needed. I'd be looking at the position of evilsnail and Ellibereth in the event I am lynched, because they are bad, bad votes. Tsk tsk.

Mykonian is being very sensible right about now - and that isn't just because he's helping me with an evilsnail vote.