Mini 851 - Bloodlust Mafia! - Game Over

[Zachrulez]

/confirm

[Zachrulez]

vote: Haylen

she admitted to being scum in pre-game chat. of course she gets the vote!

Works for me.

Vote: Haylen

[Zachrulez]

So Pome, was your suspicion of Haylen's self vote serious?

[Zachrulez]

Would you have found it suspicious had she not unvoted?

[Zachrulez]

Would you have found it suspicious had she not unvoted?

Possibly. But there was no reason for her to continue voting for herself, and she didn't. I FoS'ed her in jest. As far as I understood, she voted herself in jest, too.

Possibly? There was no reason for her to vote herself at all.

Unvote: Vote: Promegranate

What do you think was the motivation of her self vote? Does that action make her more likely to be town or scum in your eyes? Did anything in your exchange help you toward determining the intent of that action?

[Zachrulez]

Wow... someone doesn't like my curiosity at all.

[Zachrulez]

If my case was really out of nothing, then why would you get worked up over it?

[Zachrulez]

hmmm...

Well, I'm not seeing discussion go anywhere...

gah, this is why I prefer replacing in >.<

vote: almasterGM

cuz a bandwagon starts discussion!

Sooo why didn't you just join a bandwagon that's already in place? Chibo looks like a great bandwagon right now.

What makes a Chibo wagon better than an Almaster wagon?

I don't get why you're trying to redirect Ray's vote.

[Zachrulez]

Going to try to catch up over lunch. (I think I fell behind at page 7.)

I also tend to be less active over the weekend, so accusing me of lurking for not posting on the weekend in a sea of 4 pages that appeared on Sunday alone will only serve to annoy me.

[Zachrulez]

Remember that there is a SK also. Essentially, there are 4 people we want out.

Is there ALWAYS a SK? I checked the wiki, but it didn't specify.

... this setup is semi open. You would know there's an SK in the game if you'd bothered to read the setup and rules...

[Zachrulez]

I believe you mean page 6 >.>

Also, I am kinda wary of a looker lynch at this stage of the game because of an... experience with looker-town.

So far, looker's played close to looker-town meta (meta is gained from an on-going, so I can't link, sorry).

A looker-town is pretty incompetent and has no real leads and is pretty much a baby in ability.

I don't have any experience with looker-scum, so this might be the same either way.

I'd like to hold off on voting for a bit until I get a better read on looker.

pre-edit:

looker sniped me

Haven't finished reading yet, but I got to this post and felt like this link would be helpful to metaing looker.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10297

[Zachrulez]

I'm interested in seeing more from Pome. I'd like her to clarify whether she's still happy with her vote on me or not, and answer a simple question of whether or not she thinks I am scum.

[Zachrulez]

Also a top suspect from Looker would be nice. Pome? (I think that's where his vote is.)

[Zachrulez]

I am writing a terrifically long (or horrifically long) post, depending on whether or not you have had experience with my long posts...

Any post from now on til I post it will be considered by me as a simulpost. I REALLY hate simulposts.

Still working on this?

[Zachrulez]

I'm interested in seeing more from Pome. I'd like her to clarify whether she's still happy with her vote on me or not[....]

Sorry, will

Unvote

you for now. I need to get some good reads before voting.

Well we're 13 pages in now, how much more time are you going to need to get your good reads?

[Zachrulez]

Pome, Konowa, and everybody else catching up:

what are your reads/feelings about the number of interactions so far in the game?

I personally want to see more from Pomegranite and Haylen.

Not particularly liking what I am seeing from Chibo, Peabody and Alamaster.

Looker could actually be a decent scumhunting tool depending on his alignment. (Which I think it should be quite important for us to determine ASAP.) I won't elaborate further at this time on that matter.

Everyone else is kinda off my radar for one reason or another, which could be due to needing to post more, or needing to post something that grabs my attention.

[Zachrulez]

Zachrulez-

I'm interested in seeing more from Pome. I'd like her to clarify whether she's still happy with her vote on me or not[....]

Sorry, will

Unvote

you for now. I need to get some good reads before voting.

Well we're 13 pages in now, how much more time are you going to need to get your good reads?

I'd be fine with this if not for this, a few minutes later:

Everyone else is kinda off my radar for one reason or another, which could be due to needing to post more, or needing to post something that grabs my attention.

That seems hypocritical to me. Could you explain why it's not (unless you think it is too )?

Well for one... did I say I needed to get some good reads before I voted? Actually, I like my vote in that it helps me get a read on you, and I want to see more from you to improve that read.

And second, you don't expect me to have a good read on EVERYONE do you? And no, I didn't expect you to have a good read on everyone either, I just want to see you doing more to try to get reads on people, while you seem content with posting little/not at all.

For the record, I tend to disagree with your town read on Haylen.
Here's why.

If Haylen does actually post her super big post that she's promising that gives opinions on multiple players and isn't opportunistically attacking someone after active lurking through the early game, then I might be inclined to change my opinion of her.

[Zachrulez]

In regards to your name, I think of granite when I sound out your name, sorry about that :s. I'll try to keep the proper spelling of your name in mind while I determine whether or not you are a scumbag.

Also, active lurking is scummy. There is a distinction between actively lurking, (Reading the thread without posting in such a way that appears strategic.) and lurking in general.

[Zachrulez]

Unvote: Vote: Peabody

Do you often misrepresent people so blatently?

[Zachrulez]

Unvote: Vote: Peabody

Do you often misrepresent people so blatently?

Do you often vote people for one instance of misrepresentation without waiting for an explanation?

Any thoughts on that misrep by the way?

It's really bad, especially because he responded to the person who actually typed the quote he tried to use against Looker. Are you liable to believe that it was really some kind of mistake on Peabody's part?

[Zachrulez]

Well it's a reason, on day 1, early in the game.

What makes it any more arbitrary than the wagon that formed on Rosso?

[Zachrulez]

Well it's a reason, on day 1, early in the game.

What makes it any more arbitrary than the wagon that formed on Rosso?

Rosso's was pressure. This one has a reason.

I'd rather see if the reason is valid before, y'know, voting. I won't be voting for pressure if I do vote, so yeah.

I find the reason valid now. Go through your own process of determining what you think about it, but I don't see why you're making such a big deal about my vote. (Unless you actually expect me to play to your standards.)

[Zachrulez]

Woops! I'm sorry dude, I must have misread the name. My bad. Thanks for pointing that out.

So in taking a jab and accusing Looker of a contradiction, you just happened to use someone else's post as evidence against Looker accidentally?

[Zachrulez]

Frankly, I don't see how something like that happens accidentally when you're making points against someone, unless you're careless scum that's not fully paying attention to the game and just trying to conjure up stupid bs on a player you've pegged as weak.

[Zachrulez]

Woops! I'm sorry dude, I must have misread the name. My bad. Thanks for pointing that out.

...

that's your response?

you misread the name?

so you misread AlmasterGM to read Looker...

not buying it.

unvote, vote peabody

Unvote: Vote: Peabody

Do you often misrepresent people so blatently?

Do you often vote people for one instance of misrepresentation without waiting for an explanation?

Unvote: Vote: Peabody

Do you often misrepresent people so blatently?

Do you often vote people for one instance of misrepresentation without waiting for an explanation?

Any thoughts on that misrep by the way?

It's really bad, especially because he responded to the person who actually typed the quote he tried to use against Looker. Are you liable to believe that it was really some kind of mistake on Peabody's part?

I find it to be worth looking into, but not something to arbitrarily vote over.

I think it

is

a possibility that he did. I want to wait for his response before hounding him.

Nice to see you've changed you mind.

[Zachrulez]

He responded.

I didn't like his response.

I thus am hounding him.

I'm not complaining. I'm glad your vote is on him. I'm just somewhat amused because of the exchange we had prior to your vote.

[Zachrulez]

What stopped you from making sure Looker actually wrote the posts you found to be contradictory Peabody?

[Zachrulez]

Well then, there's not much I can do to defend myself. If someone wants to be constructive and ask me questions, I would rather that happen. What I'm seeing right now is

you are obviously scum, so I'm closing my ears to everything you say

. Several people did mention my misrepresentation could be a mistake. Now all of a sudden, I can't get a benefit of the doubt?

Also my defense is not WIFOM. Mafia would have NOTHING to gain by doing what I did unless they want to lose the game. If it is WIFOM, I honestly believe this claim MUST be considered.

I'm amused by how fast certain people jumped on my bandwagon.

Who are you referring to being scum?

[Zachrulez]

Sorry, I don't know what AtE is. My bad.

Shorthand for appeal to emotion.

[Zachrulez]

really dont like this wagon on peabody.

it was started over something very very minor, this ought to go nowhere. The fact that looker and co found this to be so scummy to push pb to a lynch is really telling.

noted.

Attempt to actively derail wagon is noted.

An explanation of why it's minor would probably carry more weight than just saying it is.

[Zachrulez]

Did you manually type out the names you quoted in post 382?

[Zachrulez]

She's not lurking.

[Zachrulez]

Did you manually type out the names you quoted in post 382?

No, not that time.

Then you learn fast.

Your misrep isn't the only point against you.

hmmm...

Well, I'm not seeing discussion go anywhere...

gah, this is why I prefer replacing in >.<

vote: almasterGM

cuz a bandwagon starts discussion!

Sooo why didn't you just join a bandwagon that's already in place? Chibo looks like a great bandwagon right now.

What makes a Chibo wagon better than an Almaster wagon?

I don't get why you're trying to redirect Ray's vote.

I also find that scummy.

[Zachrulez]

My 2nd point was more about the fact that you were trying to direct Ray to one bandwagon over another.

[Zachrulez]

Why do you care if about ruling out the vig Chibo? Are you concerned about it?

FOS

Also, I will go insane if Alamaster is not scum, that hammer was just ridiculous, and done without bothering for a claim.

Vote: Alamaster

[Zachrulez]

Who do you find the most suspicious going into day 2 Pome?

[Zachrulez]

Heh, looks like you already answered my question before seeing it.

[Zachrulez]

Also, I'm still not liking Haylen's lurking either.

[Zachrulez]

Well... in light of the above tracker claim, I'm interested in what Chibo has to say for himself.

Unvote

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, I'm finding Chibo's claim a little hard to believe right now as it seems designed more to his own survival opposed to helping the town.

Also go back to my FOS of him where I call him out for talking as if he was interested in whether there was a vig or not.

[Zachrulez]

Also, execution style actually implies mafia more so than Vig IMO.

[Zachrulez]

That doesn't make sense that I became suspicious of you only after Konowa's questions, it was after your recent posts. I don't have to come out and say everything I'm thinking at every moment, but if I'm asked questions, I will answer (as long as it's not something I can't blatantly just say out of the blue). I explained why I was suspicious of you. Nothing too serious, but something to note.

The night kills were surprising and could tell us something... So there were two night kills, and since we have the mafia and a serial killer,

does this rule out the chance of a vigilante?

That, or can one of the 3 possible killers (mafia, sk, vigilante) forego their night kill? Only Vigilante can do that right? unless the mafia could as well?

To the bold, why would you say this when you're supposed to possess the knowledge that you are a vigilante?

[Zachrulez]

Who roleblocked who? The answer to that points to our SK. I guarantee you.

Rolefishing. If a kill was blocked, it was blocked by a mafia roleblocker that won't claim, or a jailkeeper, who we

DO NOT

want to claim right now.

Seriously, how do you KNOW the kill was blocked? Not just blocked, but ROLEBLOCKED. If a kill was stopped, it could have just as easily been a jailkeeper doc saving a player (And also role blocking them.)

[Zachrulez]

Who roleblocked who? The answer to that points to our SK. I guarantee you.

Rolefishing. If a kill was blocked, it was blocked by a mafia roleblocker that won't claim, or a jailkeeper, who we

DO NOT

want to claim right now.

Seriously, how do you KNOW the kill was blocked? Not just blocked, but ROLEBLOCKED. If a kill was stopped, it could have just as easily been a jailkeeper doc saving a player (And also role blocking them.)

Disregard stricken, I'm forgetting he was tracked, he couldn't have tried to kill anyone else. I'm being silly.

[Zachrulez]

Point about rolefishing stands though.

Kill could have been saved rather than blocked, jailkeeper can work both ways. That point stands as well.

[Zachrulez]

Eh, we don't know for sure that the SK is nk immune.

I'm pretty convinced that Chibo is not town anyway though.

The only thing that's really stopping me from voting is that I want to give everyone a chance to check in, and I don't really want to see a quick lynch before that happens. It has been proven that this town is capable and willing to end the day early.

[Zachrulez]

Based on flavor, I would tend to believe that Looker was a mafia kill and Rosso was a SK kill. (Being burned seems to imply an arsonist.)

[Zachrulez]

Dunno why it says what it says in the wiki, but most games I play generally don't mandate kills.

[Zachrulez]

Alright, I've been giving this a bit of thought.

@Chibo

Is it your position that you believe that SK had his kill blocked? I just want to get this straight.

Would you be willing to follow the town's direction, should it be self vigging, not vigging, vigging at town's discretion under penalty of death if you defy the town?

I can see it possible that you are suffering from confirmation bias in regards to being the vig and are unable to come up with a reasonable defense to the circumstances or a powerfully convincing explanation, but despite all that may actually still be the vig.

I could see how you might be lead to believe that an SK would have to be compulsive, as the wiki tends to lead to that belief.

What do you think about the fact that people are accusing you of being an SK? (Frankly, I'm not in this camp personally, I can explain my position when you answer.)

[Zachrulez]

Ok, I will ask again cause apparently the fact that I'm not getting it or not seeing it isn't sinking in.

But if there was a blocked kill, why does the blocked kill HAVE to be an SK kill that was blocked? Why couldn't it have been a mafia kill that was blocked?

[Zachrulez]

I think Alamaster and Chibo are both good choices for lynches.

I think the only reason I'm wary on Chibo is because of the way the Peabody lynch turned out, but it's probably likely that I shouldn't be.

[Zachrulez]

Except that he said he won't do it.

Why exactly would you want yourself lynched over Chibo? That doesn't really make any sense to me. You don't think he's scum?

[Zachrulez]

I want to hear more from Haylen before anything is decided.

I agree, we should not leave this day phase without a content post from Haylen if it's at all possible.

[Zachrulez]

Vote: ChiboSempai

Post 430, post 447, and post 528 are good reads to understand my reasoning.

His suspicions in Post 430 do not match up with his vig target.

His analysis and attempt to rule out the vig in 447 look pretty bad as well.

His refusal to even consider the option of self vigging in 528 when he's caught in a kill is also pretty telling IMO.

[Zachrulez]

beside chibo, im suspicious of haylen for semi active lurking.

all this time we've questioned chibo and alm, s/he has promised posts, claimed to have typed it up, claimed to of lost her post, and said she would post on tuesday a post she already typed. we're lacking that post.

This has not escaped my notice either. She's got a spot on my suspicion list right below alamaster and chibo.

[Zachrulez]

cb, I do not think a Chibo lynch is the right way to go today because I believe it will solve itself overnight. If the mafia is smart they will shoot him tonight before he starts shooting them. If he is the SK, lynching him will not reveal

anything

about who is mafia. I truly believe that Almaster is mafia and his flip will tell us a lot.

The only problem with the above there (though I do agree with you that Almaster is a much better lynch than Chibo today) is that the scum may WIFOM us by not taking him out tonight, leading us to believe he really is Mafia when he may not be.

If Chibo is SK, we will definately know by tomorrow, because he has pledged not to kill, so there are 3 kills tomorrow, we will know it was down to an SK-Chibo (this actually gets me thinking, I reckon it may be a good idea to ask our Vig, if he does exist and is not Chibo, does not kill tonight so we can definately be sure that, if there are 2 kills tomorrow, Chibo's was one of them, and he is an SK, what does everyone else think to this? I suppose it does waste a potential kill, that could have been on scum, but it also has a decent chance of hitting town too, and with the amount of Vanilla's down, a Vig-shot is pretty likely to hit a PR if he gets a town, so I reckon it may be worth it).

If we establish that Chibo is definately not the SK, then there is no way for sure to be able to tell if he's Mafia or Vig that I can think of right now. I doubt we will find any actually, but we should keep thinking all the same, would make things a lot easier for us. But I conclude that, because of what I said in the paragraph above, it would be a bad idea to lynch Chibo today, so we can find out tonight whether he is the scum-role we primarily suspect him to be, the SK. And Konowa is definately right, there has been so much opinion posted around about Almaster, that knowing his role could potentially tell us a lot about the game.

I have to disagree with you here, if there's a unclaimed vig out there that's NOT Chibo, (which means Chibo is lying.) then we want that vig to SHOOT Chibo. It eliminates a big problem for us if that is the case.

[Zachrulez]

Unvote:

I may be leaning more toward lynching Alamaster. The Chibo situation has some potential to be resolved over the night phase. I'll have to think about it.

[Zachrulez]

I want to call his bluff. A townie would not act against the town like that. Someone vote him (since I already am) to put him at L-1.

L-1. I dare you.

I'm torn between wanting to vote for Alamaster for that post and being tempted to vote for Haylen due to her lack of posting...

I think I have decided that I don't want to lynch Chibo today though.

[Zachrulez]

Chibo is scum.
Haylen is scum.
J-Fox is probably scum.

Fuck off. No im not.

No need to get personal. But yes you are. And if you aren't, why don't you do something instead of just complaining about the situation repeatedly?

Nice try Almaster, you've got one more chance, since you didn't follow the rules. Still wanna vote yourself?

I didn't really want to the first time. However, I said I would, and I never bluff. Have it your way.

Unvote. Vote: AlmasterGM.

Oh f---

Are you serious?

If you flip town I hate you.

[Zachrulez]

FYI, the game was a mafia win on day 3.

There was absolutely no reason that there should have ever been a mafia lynch with non mafia not having a majority.

[Zachrulez]

gg everyone

told you i was vig

im so glad that before sending in my night 3 actions i reread most of it and correctly guessed the role of every single remaining player after knowing rayfrost was scum.

gj haylen on the win
im just glad i was able to help turn around the extreme disadvantage from town and advantage for mafia and help mafia not win

Actually on night 2 my gut was telling me you were town. I actually had a passing thought to discuss with Konowa the possibility of recruiting you instead, but going for Bovine seemed more logical.

Stupid logic. Should have trusted my gut.

[Zachrulez]

Zachy-dearest, why do i need to die slowly and painfully >.>

Because you weren't town.

[Zachrulez]

... and I knew it around the beginning of day 1. For some reason I can't fathom, we just didn't get around to lynching you... ARGH!

[Zachrulez]

Lol, I like the irony that I poked you into joining the game and then beat you

Lame, what sucks the most is that I allowed it to happen.

[Zachrulez]

Personally, I really didn't much care for the setups when I realized that a paticular day could have as many as 4 deaths, and dreaded how swingy this game was going to be from the start.

This concept would probably run better as a large game IMO.

[Zachrulez]

Basically that the roles could really swing the game to a quick end in either direction.

It was possible for this game to be over in 2 days.

[Zachrulez]

I'd have to play the game through to see if the town could still lose by lynching correctly as well. (With the worst case death scenarios.)

[Zachrulez]

I just crunched the raw number in my head.

With a vig, sk, and mafia you start with 8 townies, 3 mafia and 1 sk.

a mafia lynch and 4 subsequent deaths at night leave 4 townies, 2 mafia, and 1 sk (assuming the vig survives here, and the cult recruit fails.)

a mafia lynch and 3 town deaths results in a prisoners dillema.

I think this setup definitely needs more town. If you want to keep this current form, I would probably take the vig out categorically, and maybe just have a preset masonry size in mind.

That's just my suggestion. I think this is actually a nice setup with a lot of potential, as a large game, just not a mini.

[Zachrulez]

I'd have to play the game through to see if the town could still lose by lynching correctly as well. (With the worst case death scenarios.)

Regarding this, I suppose it would go:

Vig in the setup
D1 scum lynch (11 players, 2 scum, 1 SK)
all 3 NKs on Townies, not the Vig (8 players, 2 scum, 1 SK)
D2 scum lynch (7 players, 1 scum, 1 SK)
all 3 NKs on Townies, not the Vig (5 players, 1 scum, 1 SK)
D2 scum/SK lynch (5 players, 1 scum/SK)
2 NKs on Townies (3 players, 1 scum/SK)
D4 lynch final scum/SK for the win.

So no, correct lynches guarantee a Town win, even with worst-case NKs.

You're forgetting the cult recruit failure resulting in the cult leader's death.

[Zachrulez]

Either way, if the setup does cut that way, the town's back is against the wall and it's pretty brutal to lose just by mislynching once.

[Zachrulez]

it's pretty brutal to lose just by mislynching once.

It's called Lylo, Zach...

ok... wrong perspective. It's called lylo actually playing a perfect game.

[Zachrulez]

After playing a perfect game rather. Blegh, typing fail.

[Zachrulez]

Anyway, a general rule of thumb is that scum and town should be able to win in about the same amount of time regardless of the worst case scenario for either side.

That's just the train of thought I am going at this with here.

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, I'll pretty much leave it at that. If you want to continue this discussion on PM, I'll think about going through this with more townies to see where it balances.