/in-vitational 2 - Chosen, Karaoke - Game over! before 830

[Zorblag]

Troll gives warm greetings.

There be a couple things to point out this game.

First, scum can daytalk. Second, we have two week deadlines. Third we can use the chosen mechanic to do some to help the town in this game but it be weaker than it was in Incognito's other chosen game. Fourth, Sajin has a decent chance of being scum who no read the roles at all carefully (either that or him be hoping to catch scum in a trap so simple that it be unreasonable to expect success.)

Based on the first three Troll will ask all to answer a couple questions:

What do you plan to do if we get a week into the game and one player no has done anything helpful so far as participation goes? What if there be more than one player in that category?

Based on your role what do you think your chances of being the chosen are and why? For Troll the answer be about 1/6. Troll will give reasons after all have answered.

What thoughts do any have about how we can use the setup to our advantage?

Based on the fourth,

Vote: Sajin

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

hohum, your point be made (and Troll's also though Troll, like Scien had hoped to leave it a bit vague), there be no need to insult. Troll would also like it if you would answer Troll's questions if you be willing.

Sajin, Troll trusts that Troll no has to explain Troll's first post at this point?

Scien, Troll thinks that lynching probably still does be in the towns interest. We have two routes to victory in this game. We can keep the chosen alive or lynch the scum. Either one will win just fine whether or not we do the other. If we never lynch then the scum eventually have the advantage as town has to lynch before scum has to night kill. Early lynches both give us information and are less likely to hit a chosen (based on numbers of other targets available) than later lynches if we're just letting the scum kill at night.

It do be a tricky issue but Troll be pretty sure that reasoned lynches will tend to favor the town.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I have to agree with Zorblag here. Avoiding a lynch may prevent us from hitting one of the chosen but, it also keeps us from getting the Scummies. We can't win with them alive.

That no be the reason Troll gave. We can win with the scum alive. That be the point of this setup and why it be different from a normal game. Everyone should have that crystal clear right from the start.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll would also like it if you would answer Troll's questions if you be willing.

Pooh doesn't see the point.

The first be similar to Scien's question but be approaching it from another angle. The second and third be useful for determining what sort of points of view players have on this dynamic which might give access to their probable roles. Unless you have have a specific reason not to answer the questions Troll would appreciate if you do. It be up to you but more information about this sort of thing should help the town in the long run.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

I understand your reasoning, truly I do. But it seems to me to be a bit of handicapping to claim that we 'have' to either lynch or no lynch each day and night. It seems to me that it would be better suited to make the decision based on the current game state. It why give up town options before we have enough information to determine if those options are a better decision for the town to make?

Troll no be saying that we should decide now what the best choice will be every day. Troll does think that it be the better choice to lynch this day for the reasons Troll gave.

Also, we no need to rush into the lynch. Troll will

unvote

for now. There be no good reason not to get the answers to Troll's questions before the lynch as them no should do anything to change people's views on Sajin. Hohum's view here be troubling.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hohum's view here be troubling.

That's only because you don't understand the difference between withholding an opinion vs withholding a factually verified piece of information. That's okay though, I still love you.

That be an interesting (if needlessly patronizing) stance to take. Why should withholding an opinion here be any more valid than withholding a factually verified piece of information? Factually verified pieces of information in mafia be most few and far between. Sorting through the opinions that people express be important for figuring out their motives as often that be all we have to work with. Holding off on giving the answers to the questions Troll has ask be a chance for scum to be more careful about answers and try to avoid making slips them might otherwise make. Again, Troll would prefer that the answers be given sooner rather than later and hohum's stance be troubling.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll be off to Troll's cave for the night. Troll will check in tomorrow morning and see if any of those who no have made it to the thread yet have had a chance to check in and give some reactions.

Troll would still like to get answers to Troll's questions from all but Sajin and Scien (Troll thanks the two of you for your answers.)

Those questions, in case anyone no wants to look back:

-What do you plan to do if we get a week into the game and one player no has done anything helpful so far as participation goes? What if there be more than one player in that category?

-Based on your role what do you think your chances of being the chosen are and why? For Troll the answer be about 1/6. Troll will give reasons after all have answered.

-What thoughts do any have about how we can use the setup to our advantage?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, and Troll should have thanked MiteyMouse for her answers to Troll's questions as well. Now Troll really be off to bed.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Nikanor, Troll does thank you for the answers to the questions but Troll finds it disconcerting that you no chose to comment on anything else that has happened in the game. Has no one done anything thus far that makes them scummier than cojin is just by default? Or does the pressure vote on cojin just be so important to make that no other play up till now matters?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

This last weekend was unexpectedly long and Troll now be most tired; Troll's cave beckons for a good long sleep but Troll will get a post in first.

Thank you for your answers to the questions Cojin and qwints. All but hohum have now answered so Troll will add a bit more.

Given the short (two week) deadlines Troll thinks that activity will be more important that normal. This makes the scum ability to day talk more troublesome than it might otherwise be as them have more of a chance to coordinate lurking should them choose. Troll will say now that it be the duty of all town members to be active and not give the rest of the town a reason to worry about you no being about. Troll very much hopes that it no will be an issue this game but Troll also plans to take a harder stance than normal. If people be lurking it be severely anti-town this game so Troll will be very willing to lynch based on that.

Troll was interested to see who would question Troll's 1/6 chances of being a chosen. The easy answers to give be 2/7; if the scum excluded someone at random then the town would each have a 2/7 chance. Some gave themself a 1/3 chance; this assumes that them no were the one that was excluded and be a reasonable answer as well. Troll be arrogant and assumed that Troll had about a 1/2 chance of being picked to be excluded given the reputation Troll has with the others that be in the game. If Troll has a 1/2 chance of being excluded and then a 2/6 chance of being a chosen if Troll no was excluded that gives Troll about a 1/6 chance of being a chosen.

Actually, Troll has since adjusted Troll's odds of being the chosen down since the game started. Troll threw some things out there with little explanation right at the start in part to see if any would use them as a reason to attack Troll at all. No one seems to have. The scum have a reason to try to take advantage of openings that the chosen give to make attacks.

Troll no will try to come up with odds for Troll's chances of being s chosen at this point but them be low enough that Troll would currently consider Troll a fairly safe lynch if the town was ever in a spot where a lynch needed to be made and the only thing that was important was avoiding a chosen one (e.g. a 6 players left, both scum, both chosen, the scum are forcing the town to lynch by not killing at night and there isn't good consensus on who is scum.)

Troll believes that Sajin is more likely to be town than scum by a fair amount. His misunderstanding is pretty unexpected. Troll was jumping on it right at the start without explanation for the reactions as much as anything else. If the lynch looked like it was eminent Troll thought Troll could stop things. The thing that makes the misunderstanding look genuine right from the start which no one else has really commented on is that Sajin's plan is a really excellent one if his understanding of the rules was correct. As scum, he wouldn't have anything to gain by fishing (him would know who the chosen are already) and a lot to loose by people doing what him suggested. It's possible that he's faked the entire misunderstanding but I don't think him would have held onto it for as long as him did or the way that him did if that were the case.

Scien, Troll sees the question of whether scum can talk during the day come up much more often than it should. In this case Troll was preemptively pointing that out for those who no had fully read and understood the rules. The conversation in these first four pages leads Troll to believe that it was worth doing. The same thing went for the two week deadlines. Further, concerning the no lynch option Troll does plan to keep an open mind but there be an issue Troll thinks you be omitting that Troll will bring up after the game be over or when it becomes pertinent.

Troll will need to read through the game again to figure out where else Troll's suspicions lie for now. hohum be blustery but that do be how him plays so it no means that much. Papa Zito seems flightier than normal (that no be a great term but Troll will use it for now) and Scien seems overly tentative. Past that Troll needs to take the time when Troll be more fully awake and aware to look over everything. Troll will have that by tomorrow and apologizes for the delay.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, let's do this by person Troll thinks.

Cojin: You do need to be able to come up with opinions even if you think the game is largely noise rather than signal. Complaining about it doesn't help with anything. Actually the fact that you've done as little as you have to provide useful content and have gotten as little attention as you have be of some use. Of more use would be engagement in the game. Troll needs more information from you to come up with anything meaningful.

hohum: Him has managed to get into it with most in the game at this point. Later on that might be useful (especially in terms of the reactions from others but also just where him be choosing to focus his attention) but for now it makes for irritating reading. Framing the interactions as the fault of everyone else be unsurprising but not particularly helpful in Troll's opinion. What do be helpful be the reactions we be getting from others Troll be waiting to see what him comes up with regarding Sajin. Troll could go either way as far as hohum being scum but Troll thinks there would have been harder attacks against him if him were a chosen by now.

MiteyMouse: You've seen Papa Zito play as scum. If him be playing differently than you've ever seen him play before why should that be a scum tell for you rather than a town tell? If you've only got one other than yourself who you think is likely town (and it do be clear who it is based on what you've said) why is it that you're saying that you're finding more town tells than normal this game. Just thinking that one other be town no strikes Troll as remarkable at all. Your failure to realize that we can win this game as town if we don't kill scum but keep both chosen alive be concerning to Troll given the experience Troll knows you have with the chosen dynamic. Right now Troll finds MiteyMouse scummier than average.

Nikanor: Troll finds surprisingly little to say to you. It be a bit odd that Nikanor says we should be careful with votes in this game after having already voted for three people (two of them in his first two posts) and later on the attention him has given to various people might be interesting but Troll no has any particularly strong opinions.

Papa Zito: For starters, the idea that him be tearing down wagons be a bit odd as Troll be pretty sure it was Troll who unvoted Sajin before Papa Zito did. Calling him quite probably fails to take into account the post rate of this game but him do be saying a bit less than might be expected. After Troll said that him had been flighty his vote has stayed on qwints (Troll no be asserting a causal relationship here) which Troll supposes Troll thinks be most likely due to the defending as a town tell issue? Troll no particularly has a scum read on him but there be enough minor attention from various places directed towards him that Troll thinks him has some chance of being a chosen.

qwints: The attack on Sajin when him came in strikes Troll as a bad sign given the discussion that had already taken place. Troll seems to think from reading through games that qwints has some experience with Cojin. Does that be correct? If so it be a bit surprising that the active lurking be the biggest thing that qwints be latching onto so far as it seems to be somewhat characteristic of his play in other games as well. It no be good play by any means but it also no makes Cojin a particularly good lynch on it's own (or even with the relatively weak contradiction thrown in.) There be a couple connections between qwints and hohum coming from both directions which be interesting. Troll would be pretty surprised if both were scum but doesn't have much trouble with seeing one trying to buddy up with the other (and this could go either way.)

Scien: For one as concerned about the voting with the mechanic we be using in this game Scien no has impressed Troll much at all with the two votes him has cast. Both feel as though them be reactionary rather than based on particularly strong reasons. Troll no be sure whether the quick unvotes make them better or worse in Troll's assessment but it does add to what Troll sees as the tentative nature of Scien's play. Actually, on the whole Troll thinks that Scien seems to be focused on the structure of the game and the play more than the players. Troll might normally think that was scummy but in this setup (and given what Troll knows of how Scien plays as scum) Troll leans away from that.

Of all the players at this time Troll thinks that MiteyMouse be the safest lynch. She be the one that be the best combination of possible scum and probably not chosen from what Troll sees of the interactions we have to work with.

Vote: MiteyMouse

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll: One point pooh would like to make. Pooh no attack troll because pooh see troll's unvote simply as a desire to go and scumhunt elsewhere. Pooh see PZ-scum's unvote as same if PZ not go on offensive over sajin's wagon.

So then what did hohum make of Troll's later post saying that Sajin most likely be town?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yes, Troll gathers that. Troll be waiting to see your current reasons why you think Sajin be scum. Troll was mostly asking to see if hohum thought that Troll was attempting to prevent wagons on Sajin with Troll's later post as that be something hohum thinks Papa Zito be doing.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Really Cojin? Neutral on both sides for hohum and Sajin? Troll often gets accused of fence sitting but that raises even Troll's eyebrows.

In that case (and it has been asked before but Troll will try again) who does look suspicious to you and why? Surely there be enough in this game that even with the extra noise you can find top suspects.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK hohum, Troll took a look over your case and did a reread of Sajin. Troll no be convinced by what you be saying there. Here be a couple problems with what Troll sees:

Sajin's either no understood that the chosen would get confirmations or him didn't. Troll thinks that him really didn't understand. Him either be particularly clever and pulled off a believable fake failure to know what was going on well over the course of his first 6 posts or him really didn't understand how the game mechanic works. Quite frankly Troll no thinks that Sajin be that clever (no offense intended Sajin.) As Troll said before, if him was mistaken then the strength of his plan is pro-town enough to easily counter any minor scum tell that came from not understanding the rules completely.

Sajin voted for hohum not at random but because him had reason to think that hohum no was the chosen. Avoiding lynching the chosen be a key part of this game. hohum can call it OMGUS if him wants but it be a viable early vote based on the information him had access to from everything Troll can see.

After that Troll sees a battle of egos between Sajin and hohum rather than great arguments from either regarding the other's play.

Troll feels that both hohum and Sajin have done a poor job of looking at eachother's play objectively. Sajin has been focused on hohum and qwints for most of the game. These be the two that have been the most suspicious of Sajin. Sajin should take a step back and see what everyone else is doing to a greater degree than him has.

hohum latched onto what him thinks was a scum tell from Sajin at the start and has been pounding at him since then (Troll no will claim Sajin has been an exclusive target but hohum has been after him since the start of the game.) hohum seems to be going out of his way to see the worst in Sajin's responses and motive.

@Zorblag: I'm not opposed to an MM lynch but it isn't going to happen today. I'd rather lynch sajin (scum) than go with a "safe" lynch. Safe lynches involve a fair amount of scum gaming, which isn't good. For now I'm content to keep MM talking in order to get a better read on her.

Keeping MiteyMouse around for a better read be likely to be unproductive given what Troll knows of her play but in any case, Troll thinks that a MiteyMouse lynch be more likely to happen today than a Sajin lynch. Troll thinks that MiteyMouse has a decent chance of being scum in addition to a low chance of being a chosen. Troll no be set on it but it be much more than just a safe lynch.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Why the unvote Papa Zito? Troll no sees any indication that there be a change in your opinion about qwints.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@hohum, Troll no be at the stage of the game where Troll be interested in convincing people to vote in a particular way yet. Troll finds MiteyMouse to be the best lynch at this time and has given some reasons and put Troll's vote on her. If others agree it be fine with Troll if them show this with their vote. If others want to put pressure on MiteyMouse with their votes that be fine too. Troll be more interested in seeing what people will choose to do with the information that be out there on their own rather than if Troll can get them to agree with Troll. Later in the game how people chose to act be something we can use to determine what their motives were likely to have been. Late in a game when a mislynch can cause a loss or Troll has enough information to be fairly certain about someone Troll will be more likely to attempt to persuade people to vote some way but for now it no be a big issue for Troll.

Troll also thinks that you no be making yourself look any better based on how you be interacting with Sajin now. Despite your protests his response does raise issues that Troll would think you would want to deal with if you be pushing his lynch. You can play the game how you like and others might be getting a different impression of what be happening but telling Sajin that him needs to work on his reading comprehension and accusing him of misrepresentations when Troll sees at least as much misrepresentation coming from you no be that impressive.

@Papa Zito, qwints has reacted to your reasons for your unvote more strongly than Troll will but Troll wonders why you no mentioned your what you were thinking when you unvoted. Apparently you be using your vote for information to at least some degree so Troll would like to know who you think you can get more information from by voting.

@qwints, Troll be pretty surprised that you find Cojin's answers to your questsions satisfying enough to change your vote. Papa Zito's unvote and his reason do be a bit odd but this seems to be a strong reaction to that unless your view on Cojin has changed dramatically based on that one post. Did Cojin's answers show you that him be doing something other than active lurking? What do you know about his views now that you didn't before him answered?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ok, be there other parts of Papa Zito's game that qwints finds scummy or does it be mostly that unvote? (Here Troll should go back and look over what qwints has said before but Troll will be slightly lazy as qwints be here to answer it seems.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@qwints, Troll takes it that the totality of the voting patterns from Papa Zito make him more likely to be scum in your eyes than Sajin at this time then? Has your opinion on Sajin changed since you gave it last?

@Sajin, Troll be trying to enable a win for the town in any way that works. The two ways to go about that be lynching the scum and not lynching the chosen. There be no reason not to try to do both at the same time. Troll no thinks that Troll be focused on avoiding lynching the chosen over lynching scum but if others disagree so be it. As for your math from a couple pages back it all seemed to rely on the idea that we were lynching randomly. Troll thinks that we can do better than that by using the information that we're getting now. There also be a game mechanic that you be leaving out that has a fair impact. Scien was doing the same thing earlier and Troll will decline going into it at this point for the same reasons Troll did earlier. In any case, Troll thinks that thought through lynches that both be somewhat likely to hit scum and fairly unlikely to hit the chosen be the way to go at this stage of the game.

@hohum, there be no need to address Sajin's points just for Troll. Troll be fairly convinced that you be wrong in your assessment and so there be other ways you could spend your time more productively if that be what you be worried about. There do be some chance that others be more open to your views though Troll no would presume to speak for them.

@Scien and Nikanor: Troll seems to have lost track of what you be up to at this point in the game. Troll would like to hear your reactions to what has happened recently.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

There be a couple things Troll thinks no have been communicated clearly here. Does Sajin think that Troll be voting for MiteyMouse exclusively because she be unlikely to be the chosen? If that be the case him be wrong does think that MiteyMouse be as likely to be scum as anyone else at this time. That Troll thinks MiteyMouse be unlikely to be a chosen be an additional reason to vote but it no be the primary one.

Troll no be trying to convince Sajin to join the MiteyMouse wagon. Troll thought Troll just got done explaining Troll's position on that sort of thing to hohum. Sajin should be voting for the one him thinks be the most likely to help the town with their lynch right now.

It also be the case that it be easiest to avoid lynching the chosen and hardest to hit scum on day one when there be so many vanilla townies about today. Ignoring the easier condition to exclusively pursue the harder one be silly both because there no be any reason not to take both into consideration and because it be doing things the hard way.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, the first day do you be more likely to hit scum or more likely to avoid the chosen? Both further your attempts to win the game if you be town.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll did. If we lynch today do we be more likely to lynch a scum or not lynch a chosen?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Really, the issue that Troll be defending here (for reasons which Troll no understands as Troll would think that it be obvious and not need defense) be that not lynching a chosen and lynching scum no be mutually exclusive and the scum's ideal play has nothing to do with the town having to pick one win condition or the other to pursue (which be a problem with your math; Troll can go over specifics if you like.) Troll be saying that we should attempt both at once rather than focusing on one exclusively. Troll no be quite sure what your qualm with that be.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If we were to go for a random lynch we have a 2/9 chance of hitting scum today and a 7/9 chance of not hitting a chosen today. Them no be equal at all.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Who does Troll not be pursuing that Troll thinks be obviously scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be scum then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon. If both be town and one be the chosen then there do be reason to think that there would be an above average chance of scum being on that wagon.

As to the odds Troll be comparing Troll no be sure what you have in mind but Troll will put this another way. If we lynch scum today then we definitely avoid lynching a chosen. If we lynch a non-chosen today we might or might not lynch scum. We be more likely to avoid lynching a chosen today than we be to lynch scum based on that alone. Troll invites you to explain which odds you have in mind where them be equal but Troll no sees it all at this point.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

EBWOP:

If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be

scum

then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon.

Should be:

If both Sajin and hohum be town and neither be

chosen

then Troll thinks there no be any good reason to think that scum should be on either bandwagon.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Why would Troll think that one of the two of Sajin and hohum have to be scum? What has Troll ever said to give this impression? You each be one of vanilla townie, chosen and scum but that no be any sort of revelation at all. Sure you think that eachother be scum but Troll sees pairs of townies wrongly suspect eachother fairly often.

If Troll was somehow forced to vote for one of the two of you it would be hohum but Troll thinks that MiteyMouse has a greater chance of being scum than hohum does.

Did you think that Troll thought hohum was likely to be scum but no was voting for him just because MiteyMouse was less likely to be a chosen? If so, why would you think that based on what Troll has said?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

The above quote (which Troll fixed slightly though not in a way which changes anything here) does nothing that implies Troll thinks that Sajin and hohum be likely to be town together or not. It was an answer to a question Sajin asked. Troll's post that went over everyone listed people's chances of being scum or chosen individually (for some, though not all.) The only connection Troll particularly recalls making there was that hohum was unlikely to be scum with qwints. Troll's stance on MiteyMouse be that she be somewhat scummy and unlikely to be the chosen.

None of those should imply that Troll thinks that one of Sajin or hohum be scum. Troll thinks that it be possible that hohum be scum regardless of Sajin's alignment. Troll thinks that Sajin be unlikely to be scum regardless of hohum's alignment.

Troll no be sure exactly how you got this idea from what Troll has been saying but apparently you be wrong about Troll's views here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So we now be one week into the game. There be one week left till deadline for the first day. Here be some problems that Troll sees:

Cojin: Him has given no readings other than neutral on any players in the game. Him no has voted despite saying that we should be looking at voting patterns this game multiple times. Troll be inclined to put Cojin in the no useful participation category at this time.

MiteyMouse: The reasons that Troll sees from MiteyMouse for suspecting people be talking too little compared to expectations or talking too much and being aggressive towards her. She says that she be trying to use a process of elimination strategy to find scum but thus far she seems to have eliminated just Sajin and herself. There be more participation than Cojin here but Troll thus far sees very little that actually be useful or insightful.

Scien: Once again, there be more information here but Scien has thus far voted only for those that him has gotten into disagreements with and no seems to have become particularly suspicious of anyone else. Him had been talking a fair amount and Troll likes his ideas about what we should be doing in terms of strategy for this game but him needs to get much more involved with the details about players. Troll knows that him be V/LA; there be nothing that can be done about that but Troll dislikes how little of substance we have from him.

Nikanor: The start of the game from Nikanor was pretty good Troll thought but him has really faded since then. Troll will be asking for a prod for him at the end of this post but him needs to show up again and get back into this thing.

The first question Troll asked everyone was what we should do if someone hadn't done any helpful participation. Most of the answers seemed to be fairly tentative but Troll said that Troll was inclined to take a hard stance about it. Troll stands by that. Lurking in a game with short deadlines and where the scum can day talk be very anti-town. It be the duty of everyone in the town to get involved here and try to figure out who be the scum at the very least. Troll thinks we should also be looking at who might be the chosen but if people just scum hunt for now Troll will take that.

Troll will keep Troll's vote on MiteyMosue but Troll would be very willing to switch to Cojin at this time. Troll would really like to see everyone that Troll mentioned at the start weigh in with some observations about the game and suspicions with some sort of reasonable backing. Troll would rather see this sooner than later.

Mod: Can you please prod Nikanor?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, never mind the prod request. Troll was a bit too slow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll now be waiting to see what Cojin (and others) will do before Troll makes any moves with Troll's vote. Troll be willing to switch but Troll no yet feels compelled to.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, looking back at page 13 in retrospect it strikes Troll as a bit odd that the two who be asking Troll to convince them to join the wagon Troll be on are hohum and Sajin. Troll needs to think about that a bit.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll be off for the evening to either read some Lovecraft or watch some Twin Peaks depending on what others in Troll's cave want to do. Before Troll goes Troll will say, "Really, that be what Cojin and MiteyMouse had to post in response to what's happened the past couple days? Troll can maybe understand Cojin if him get back to the thread with some actual content soon, maybe. Troll be shocked that this all MiteyMouse has to say at this time though."

Troll will mean that too.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Now, Zorblag...you have said several times that you think that I'm unlikely to be the chosen. I'm wondering why this is? I don't think that I'd be likely to be excluded in this game. My play on Day 1 (all Day 1s) is weak to say the least and I'm usually a pretty easy early game lynch. One of my mods actually told me that I'm a nightmare early on in games...hehehe! I'm just curious as to why you would think this. Since we're on the topic, who do you believe that the chosen could be?

Troll thought Troll had said previously, but in any case, Troll will use your words here:

MiteyMouse's play Day 1 is weak to say the least and she would be a pretty easy lynch. Before Troll's vote there were no serious or sustained attacks on MiteyMouse. If MiteyMouse was the chosen Troll expected there to be more action against her sooner. The scum could have been holding off to be clever but no lynch be danger free and Troll likes this one.

Troll no be at all sure who the chosen be. Troll has been ruling some out as likely suspects (including MiteyMouse and Troll) but the exclusion be limited enough not to be that usable this time through. Troll would rather not list the others just now as the scum no needs to see what sort of behavior to avoid to stop people from making the list.

speculating on who may or may not be the chosen one is going to do us a disservice. It requires some scum gaming which leads to WIFOM.

That be true to a minor degree but exactly the same thing could be said about speculating about who the scum be. Troll thinks that doing both in this game be worthwhile with the caveat that it be a bit more valuable not to be quite so vocal about who be unlikely or likely to be the chosen until later as the scum can react to that. Completely throwing out chosen speculation would be to ignore the fact that the scum need to get one of two players lynched. We can use that both to figure out who the scum be and who the chosen be likely to be; both be helpful.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

hohum, we do get scum tells from the scum but we don't get chosen tells from the chosen. That much be true. What we get in the way of information about the chosen be how the rest of the town be interacting with a particular person. There be interactions from others or lack of them which can indicate that someone be the chosen. Once we start getting flips we'll also be able to look at how people interacted with someone of a known aligment which will be helpful. Scum need to act at least marginally differently towards townies and chosen and this be something that we can use.

You should be concerned about everyone else's alignment if you be town, Troll's included. You of all people in the game should know something about what Troll thinks about how to use this game mechanic. If you think that Troll be trying to misdirect the town in a way that no be consistent with how Troll feels about the mechanic then make your case and Troll will respond to it. Troll be trying to use the tools we have to get a town victory but Troll's interpretation of the tools clearly no be what everyone else sees.

Sajin, Troll thinks that some be less likely to be chosen, that be true. That means that everyone Troll no includes in that list be mroe likely to be the chosen but it no be particular players. The ones that be more likely to be chosen be less likely to be scum by default but putting those two together be the same as saying that those who be less likely to be the chosen be more likely to be scum based on that alone.

As to your point 3, Troll no be sure how to make this clear but Troll will try again.

Troll be voting for one Troll finds likely to be scum in MiteyMouse at this time. Troll has maintained this since Troll started voting for MiteyMouse. There no be any other players that Troll currently thinks be more likely to be scum than MiteyMouse. Cojin be another case to look at but him no be more likely than MiteyMouse to be scum in Troll's reading right now.

Does that help at all?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Sajin, Troll will answer (though it be there in what Troll has said before) but before Troll does, your complaint up till now seems to have been that Troll finds someone else more likely to be scum than MiteyMouse which be an entirely different issue and which Troll has been asserting no be the case. Does there be someone who you think Troll has said be scummier than MiteyMouse? If not then how do Troll's answers not satisfy the questions you have been asking?

If there no be someone that you think that Troll has found scummier than MiteyMouse then you be taking an awfully circuitious route to get to asking Troll why Troll finds MiteyMouse scummy.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ok, let's try something different then.

What does Sajin think of Nikanor's reasons for voting for MiteyMouse?

What does Sajin think of Papa Zito's reasons for saying that he thinks MiteyMouse is scum?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Well, Troll has no control over whether hohum will answer Sajin's questions so Troll sees little need to take that seriously. In any case, Troll was answering your questions up till the last one but you no were coming from a base that makes sense. Before Troll continues Troll be trying to establish what you think be happening in the hopes that perhaps Troll can figure out what it is that you think you be asking. Troll has given reasons for finding MiteyMouse scummy that be at least as strong and numerous as the ones Nikanor and Papa Zito have given; if you be fine with their reasons (or even choose not to question them) then Troll will have to figure out what it is that makes Troll's reasons different for you.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Sajin, now we be getting to the root of things. You still think that Troll finds hohum scummy (presumably because Troll finds Sajin likely to be town.) It just no be the case. Troll actually be leaning slightly town for hohum thus far. Him no be helping the town any right now with his current play but it also be poor play for scum at this time. Him could easily be influencing who actually gets lynched rather than simply sitting on someone who won't be. For many games that would be fine scum behavior but in this game scum have more of a vested interest in who gets lynched than normal.

Troll would like it if both hohum and Sajin would get off eachother's cases but it no seems to likely to happen just now so Troll no will protest beyond that. On the other hand, what convinces Sajin that someone will be scum no will be the same things that convince Troll. If Sajin thinks that Troll will lie about who Troll suspects just to be able to vote a particular way then Troll largely assumes that Sajin thinks Troll be scummy. Building a case against Troll be fine if Sajin would like to but Troll will continue to vote as Troll's instincts guide Troll, not Sajin's.

Once again, Troll no be interested in convincing anyone to vote for MiteyMouse at this time. Troll thinks that she be our best lynch but Troll would rather have people make up their own minds and act as them see fit. If Sajin thinks that someone being unlikely to be a chosen be BS then that be up to him but Troll will be taking that into account throughout this game.

Sajin's math and Sajin's reasons do nothing to show why one shouldn't try to both lynch the scum and avoid lynching the chosen. Them really no be mutually exclusive at all. In any case, Sajin can vote how him pleases; Troll will be doing the same.

Troll's reasons for suspecting MiteyMouse:

* The mistake about how town can win be an issue for Troll; she knows the mechanic and no should make it. There be little motivation for her to lie about it as either town or scum but as scum there be some confusion to be gotten out of it. It no actually be nearly the tell that others be making it but it be something.

* MiteyMouse plays an emotional game regularly but she be using it as a crutch this game as regards hohum in particular.

* MiteyMouse's reasons for suspecting people be devoid of anything that actually involves scum tell's in Troll's opinion and the process of elimination method she be proposing to use (which no has cleared anyone for her other Sajin) seems like an excuse not to scum hunt this game.

* As Troll has said, MiteyMouse seems unlikely to be the chosen to Troll. This be in addition to everything else but it does add slightly to her chances of being scum as Troll said when Troll answered Sajin earlier. If people no like this one them no have to include it in their consideration. Not connected to her chances of being scum it also means that if Troll wrong and she is town we be less likely to be hurt by it which makes the lynch more appealing than it would otherwise have been.

It no be that strong a case actually. Troll no has any interest of pushing it on others. Troll doesn't have a stronger case on anyone else at this time though (whether Troll takes the chances of being the chosen into account or not) so it be where Troll's vote goes. The first day weak cases be fairly typical in Troll's experience so Troll be willing to go with what Troll has to work with. Once we get the information we will from the flip and night kills there should be stronger cases to be made tomorrow.

@Papa Zito: Troll agrees that Cojin's vote feels a bit funny. Having said that, Papa Zito's stance towards MiteyMouse being clearly scum because of her slip but not wanting to lynch her today makes Troll at least as uncomfortable. Troll will wait to see what happens here before drawing conclusions.

@MiteyMouse: Why do you assume that Cojin's talk of PMs no could have been between Papa Zito and some scum other than you?

@everyone: Troll actually finds the "Papa Zito just showed he knows what will happen to MiteyMouse tomorrow!" take to be a bit silly. The implication was clearly that if MiteyMouse be scum she would be about to lynch on future days if we didn't today. If she did get night killed then we no would have to worry about her anyhow. If people want to assume that Papa Zito would only make a statement if him was sure it was true that be fine but it seems to Troll to be a quick way to express something that should be fairly evident while not belaboring the largely irrelevant cases.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien, you be welcome to think what you like of Sajin based on his post 41 but him no be doing what you be describing there. Him be saying that him can see how others might his actions as as scummy but then explains why this no should be the case. Also, MiteyMouse does have prior experience with the chosen dynamic though the game be ongoing so that be all Troll can say about it.

What is wrong with attacking playstyle. If he is trying to force the lynch of someone in a game where there are lynchees that screams scum to me.

Regardless I would perfer a lynch of myself or hohum today by far over anyone else. It gives the most information. Choseness is irrelevant.

First off, the reason that you be giving for why hohum should be scum there involves the chosen dynamic (lynchees be chosen) despite all your protests that it be irrelevant to today's lynch.

Second, lynching you or hohum no gives any more information than lynching MiteyMouse or Cojin would at this point. There be as many expressed opinions about their chances and votes involving them and that be where the information comes from once we've seen the flip. Actually, a qwints lynch might give about as much information as well for that matter.

Third, if you be town then calling for people to choose between lynching you and someone else on day one just be a bad idea. You no know for sure what hohum's alignment be but you do know yours. You be asking people to choose between two options one of which you know won't hit scum. You be welcome to try to convince people to vote for hohum but trying to present this as a choice between the two of you be a bad idea.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll seems to think you be right about that. Does there be a point to your saying it?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If you think that hohum be more likely to be scum because you think that him be using the chosen mechanic as a motive for his moves then you do be using the chosen mechanic indirectly yourself, not ignoring it.

Troll no minds that you be doing it. Troll just be pointing out that it be hypocritical to deny that you be doing it.

Troll also be done with this for now as it no be a useful topic of conversation in terms of either catching scum or determining who the chosen be at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien, again, make what you like of Sajin but when people realizes that them have made a mistake Troll finds it unsurprising that them would think others would see it as scummy. If you want a particularly good example of this take a look at MiteyMouse's mistake in Newbie Game 749 and reaction to being called on it a couple posts later. She, as town, assumes that people will find a mistake in reasoning (in this case mixing up how many scum be left in the game) will make her look scummy and lead to a quick hammer.

Saying that one's play has actually been scummy in the past be one thing. Understanding why others would think you look scummy based on a mistake be another.

As for Cojin, several people including Troll have attempted to start dialogues with him by asking questions which him has largely ignored. The one exception to this be the post in which him gave his neutral read on both hohum and Sajin despite apparently finding both of their individual actions incriminating. Complain about Papa Zito's lack of case all you like but saying that no one be engaging Cojin in a dialogue be disingenuous. Him simply no has been willing to participate in one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien, again, make what you like of Sajin but when people realizes that them have made a mistake Troll finds it unsurprising that them would think others would see it as scummy. If you want a particularly good example of this take a look at MiteyMouse's mistake in Newbie Game 749 and reaction to being called on it a couple posts later. She, as town, assumes that people will find a mistake in reasoning (in this case mixing up how many scum be left in the game) will make her look scummy and lead to a quick hammer.

Yes, she made a mistake there. All the while it appears that she proclaimed that she was indeed town. She never lead with 'oh that was scummy'. She just assumed that it would lead to her lynch it appears, and cried as hard as she could cry that she was town.

I understand what you are saying. Truly I do. Now shush for a sec Zorblag, I wanna talk to Sajin. Both times I started mentioning it I got a stronger reaction from you than him, and there really is no pressure on him at the moment...

For the record and for future reference, telling Troll to shush like that be a terrible way to achieve your desired result.

Sajin's initial reaction to making a mistake was to explicitly say that him could see why others would find it scummy and to implicitly assert that he was town. The former we have covered; the later came earlier. In the first post that him made once him realized that him had made a mistake this be what Sajin had to say:

I am willing to be the lynch but now instead of knowing I am not the chosen, I could be one. That sucks.

It no explicitly claims that him be town but him does the equivalent by saying that him might be a chosen. Him must be town to have a possibility of being a chosen.

For MiteyMouse, her initial reaction was to implicity say that she could see that others would find the mistake scummy and then explicitly say that she was town. She actually does that in two consequtive posts:

I know how bad that sounded but, I'm not Scum...lynching me today will put you back here tomorrow but, with 2 less Town!

I really don't blame anyone that hammers me now. To be honest, if I saw that I'd hammer but, please know that if you do, you will not be hammering a Scum.

She no explicitly uses the words that she sees how people could see what she did was scummy but if she didn't hold that opinion why would she expect to be hammered?

Scien be making a distinction there based on the what them be saying versus what them be implying. The sentiment in both reactions was the same; them both had made a mistake and it probably made others think them were scummy but that them were town.

Beyond that particular point, have you been following Troll's conversation with Sajin? Troll no particularly expects him to give answers that will be that useful based on what him has been doing with Troll. If you be using a point which Troll no thinks has merit to attack him then Troll has no trouble at all pointing out the flaws in it as Troll thinks him be likely to be town, him might be a chosen and him be unlikely to be able to do so adequately himself. If it weren't for the possibility of him being the chosen Troll would probably just let Scien do as him likes here but Troll wants to make sure that Scien has thought through the reasons him gives for suspecting Sajin in this game because of that dynamic.

And on a completely different topic,

I'm wanting a better read on Cojin and since he seems to like to respond to questions...
@Cojin...what do you think of Hohum's recent inactivity?
who are your top 3 suspects and why?

Troll assumes that this be sincere but in some ways Troll hopes that Troll has that wrong. Why does MiteyMouse think that Cojin likes responding to questions? One of the big issues people have been raising about him be that him hasn't been responding to questions.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien, Troll could go through and point out many things that Troll disagrees with about what you have just said but Troll will keep this simple.

1. Troll no be stopping you from talking to Sajin. Troll no be answering the questions that you be asking him. If him tried to use what Troll had said as an answer him would be doing himself no favors.

2. When MiteyMouse says, "I really don't blame anyone that hammers me now. To be honest, if I saw that I'd hammer but ..." she most certainly does be acknowledging that her actions seemed scummy. She in fact did not go on to show why her mistake could have been made as town.

3. Sajin no says that his actions were scummy. Him says that him sees how others could see them as scummy. The appeal to emotion that you saying him be making be exactly what MiteyMouse was doing when she said she was town.

4. Troll never said that you no should be examining Sajin. Troll be saying that the things you be building on here be a weak case. Troll no even be complaining about half of what you be bringing up for that matter (the focus on hohum.) You be welcome to find whatever you like as a case to use against anyone. If Troll thinks them be strong or even neutral Troll will let you make them largely without comment. If you try to push something Troll thinks be weak Troll will explain the troubles Troll has with it.

5. If Sajin be town that no be any sort of guarantee that him will be able to put forward a decent argument on his own behalf. The reasons no need to be as clear as you be saying them be and even if them were that no means that him would present them well. Further, if him were scum nothing would stop him from being able to come up with the reasons that you have in mind anyhow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll was using something you did in NG 749 as an example of how town reacts when them realize them have made a mistake. As Troll said at the time it was exactly the reaction Troll expects from town. Troll be comparing it to how Sajin reacted in this game when him made a mistake favorably. You be welcome to comment on that if you like.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

1. Troll no be stopping you from talking to Sajin. Troll no be answering the questions that you be asking him.
[...]
2. When MiteyMouse says, "I really don't blame anyone that hammers me now. To be honest, if I saw that I'd hammer but ..." she most certainly does be acknowledging that her actions seemed scummy.
[...]
3. Sajin no says that his actions were scummy. Him says that him sees how others could see them as scummy. The appeal to emotion that you saying him be making be exactly what MiteyMouse was doing when she said she was town.
[...]
4. Troll never said that you no should be examining Sajin. Troll be saying that the things you be building on here be a weak case. Troll no even be complaining about half of what you be bringing up for that matter (the focus on hohum.) You be welcome to find whatever you like as a case to use against anyone. If Troll thinks them be strong or even neutral Troll will let you make them largely without comment. If you try to push something Troll thinks be weak Troll will explain the troubles Troll has with it.
[...]
5. If Sajin be town that no be any sort of guarantee that him will be able to put forward a decent argument on his own behalf. The reasons no need to be as clear as you be saying them be and even if them were that no means that him would present them well. Further, if him were scum nothing would stop him from being able to come up with the reasons that you have in mind anyhow.

1) Meh.
2) Again I see what you are saying, but would like to discuss that with others.
3) I understand the difference and would like to discuss that with others. As for the appeal to emotion, yes Mitey is also known for using it, here as well as in other games. It wouldn't work on me there either.
4) Meh.
5) Then bring up your complaints when it is obvious that I am attacking him for an issue with him representing himself rather than actions in the game or derived logic. You are doing the town and yourself a disservice by impeding even a a weak attack. Even if you are sure he is town, the attack itself can give you some read on me.

2. It no be clear that you do see what Troll be saying given that you said:

She definitely didn't claim that the action itself was scummy. There is a difference here that I would like to discuss with Sajin.

Sajin's alignment would have nothing to do with his ability to answer to the distinction there, his ability to grasp subtlety would.

You be welcome to discuss it with others all you want but if you be taking an inconsistent stance Troll will call you on it.

5. Allowing people to make weak attacks on those who Troll suspects no will defend themselves well with no comment be a disservice to the town. Troll be calling you on one and the reaction that you be giving does give the town more to work with in terms of reading you.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll be saying that him did act how you acted. Troll be using that as part of a reason that him no was doing what Scien says he was; saying that his previous play had been scummy. Troll has seen players look back and say that their play was scummy. You didn't do it when you made your mistake. Sajin didn't do it in this game. Both of you reacted as Troll would expect town to and acknowledged that others could see the play as scummy.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Ah, Troll had assumed that you were talking about Troll there as it no be fair to accuse Scien of using how you reacted as part of his case against Sajin. Troll was the one that brought the example up to reinforce a point Troll was making; Scien appears to have disagreed about how similar the situations were but Troll no saw him using that as part of his case.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Actually, speaking of lurking,

Mod: Can we get another prod for Nikanor?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

*shrugs* Troll no sees any reason to think that Cojin's latest posts make him look better and MiteyMouse no looks worse than before.

Unvote. Vote: Cojin

Here be all the votes Troll has seen thus far (this has been done as the game goes; it might not be perfect but Troll thinks Troll got it right):

qwints: 0:

hohum (1, 1)

,

Nikanor (11, 1)

,

Papa Zito (12, 2)

,

Scien (16, 3)

hohum: 0:

MiteyMouse (2, 1)

,

Sajin (5, 2)

,

Papa Zito (7, 3)

,

Scien (14, 3)

Sajin: 1:

Zorblag (3, 1)

,

hohum (4, 2)

,

Papa Zito (6, 3)

,

qwints (10, 2)

, hohum (18, 1)
Cojin: 4:

Nikanor (8, 1)

,

qwints (15, 1)

, Papa Zito (21, 1),

Nikanor (22, 2)

, qwints (25, 2), MiteyMouse (26, 3), Zorblag (28, 4)
MiteyMouse: 2:

Nikanor (9, 1)

,

hohum (17, 1)

,

Zorblag (19, 1)

, Nikanor (23, 2), Cojin (24, 3)
Nikanor: 1:

hohum (13, 1)

, Sajin (27, 1)
Papa Zito: 0:

qwints (20, 1)

Not Voting: Scien

Never voted for: Scien, Zorblag

Crossed out votes were removed. The numbers in the parenthesis be the order in which the vote was cast and how many votes for the player that vote made (i.e. Troll's latest vote for Cojin be listed as Zorblag (27, 4) because it be the 27th total vote and the fourth on Cojin now.)

Troll thinks that both Scien and Troll have very low chances of being chosen. Troll has been pushing buttons where Troll can and still has garnered no votes. Troll has vaguely been complaining about Scien for a bit but again no one be picking up on that at all.

Down the road Troll feels that either Scien or Troll would be safe lynches if the primary concern becomes avoiding a chosen lynch.

Papa Zito be borderline for this category as him certainly hasn't been laying low but has gotten relatively little flack.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll thinks that both Scien and Troll have very low chances of being chosen.

Meh. You don't think the scum might be reluctant to be the first on a wagon that ends up chosen? Neither of us have had votes. That could just as easily suggest that the scum don't want to call attention by voting us, because then they would be the first building cases on us as well. They would be the most in the spotlight I believe.

I do understand what you are saying though. It could also mean that since there is not a lot of activity around us, it might be suggesting that the scum have no real interest in us.

Actually it goes beyond the votes. Both of us have gotten very little even in the neighborhood of attacks. As Troll said Troll has gone a bit out of the way to provoke this game and your play has been pretty open to attacks with how close you held your cards to your chest at the start. hohum be the notable exception but him has gone after most everyone. The scum might be playing Troll's reads here but that always be a risk.

[WIFOM][Joke] Although, you are the most famous here. You obviously got the scum veto. [/joke][/WIFOM]

Ah, an oldie but a goodie. And not particularly a joke.

Troll was interested to see who would question Troll's 1/6 chances of being a chosen. The easy answers to give be 2/7; if the scum excluded someone at random then the town would each have a 2/7 chance. Some gave themself a 1/3 chance; this assumes that them no were the one that was excluded and be a reasonable answer as well.

Troll be arrogant and assumed that Troll had about a 1/2 chance of being picked to be excluded given the reputation Troll has with the others that be in the game.

If Troll has a 1/2 chance of being excluded and then a 2/6 chance of being a chosen if Troll no was excluded that gives Troll about a 1/6 chance of being a chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Actually it goes beyond the votes. Both of us have gotten very little even in the neighborhood of attacks. As Troll said Troll has gone a bit out of the way to provoke this game and your play has been pretty open to attacks with how close you held your cards to your chest at the start.

My point about the assumption you are making about what the lack of attacks and votes on us means still stands.

The scum can't afford to let the town completely set the tempo if the chosen no be getting attacked. Further day one be the easiest time to lay groundwork for future lynches. If we had been playing games that no were easily assailable you might have a point but neither of us were. A tentative attack on either of us no would have drawn much of a spotlight to the attacker. Troll no be saying that it be a definite thing but this be as good as we could get on day one.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Right. So what do people think about what Cojin just did? Unintentional mistake from a townie or intentional mistake from scum? For that matter how about the fact that MiteyMouse largely just implied the same mistake before Cojin made it explicit? Troll be mulling it over.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, nevermind the bit about MiteyMouse there; that be a bit of stretch as a way to read what she said.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yeah, Troll thinks Troll agrees with qwints here, especially when Troll looks back and sees this (bolding is Troll's):

As far as previous posts made by others go, I would almost go as far to say its all null tell, due to the belif it was all rule misconceptions,

i for one had to reread the rules multiple times before i understood what exactly this setup is about.

The rules really do be quite clear about how many exclusions the scum get; Troll would assume that Cojin would have gotten it just with a first read but if him read them multiple times him really should have it right.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If him be scum him can daytalk and him has a partner. Troll no be willing to write anyone's cleverness off for a ploy like this given that combination.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, that was the hammer Troll believes. As Troll said earlier, Troll thinks that Scien and Troll be very unlikely to be the chosen. Both should be considered decent lynches in the future as long as both chosen still be in the game. This be something that can be used as a fall back if it be unclear who the scum be or if we get to LyLo and simply avoiding lynching a chosen will win the game.

Further, if Cojin does flip scum Troll thinks that Scien be a pretty reasonable one to consider as a partner. Him has gone out of his way to avoid casting suspicion on lurkers in general and Cojin in particular. Troll thinks, looking back at the exchange that Troll and Scien had about Sajin that Scien has misrepresented both Sajin's reaction to realizing that him made a mistake and Troll's actions during our discussion. The fact that him took as much issue as him did with Troll's statement that him was unlikely to be the chosen (along with Troll) hurts him in Troll's eyes as well.

Troll will need to see what happens with the flip today and the night kill tonight but that be where Troll be sitting now.

@Sajin, does this be enough evidence that hohum no will be voting for you exclusively until one of the two of you have been lynched? Your current stance be a particularly poor one as if both you and hohum be town it holds the town hostage to poor play from one player.

@hohum, no matter what happens with this Troll hopes that you no will spend so much time tomorrow sulking as you have today. That be fairly insulting and Troll realizes it but Troll thinks that you be more likely to be town than scum and Troll would like to see you move on from your Sajin obsession as you could actually do the town some good if you were willing to participate. The town play no has been particularly good no matter what the scum team ends up being but if you be town you can do much more to help than you did today.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

What do you want from me? I can't get a read on anyone else because the whole game is aligned against me on this sajin lynch. You can't all possibly be scum.

Troll wants you to try to figure out who the other scum is if you be right; you managed to find Sajin without any connections from others. Why not try to do the same with non-Sajin related tells for the rest of us.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

At this point that be all Troll be looking for. Today has been today (and it was plenty of itself; moving on will be good.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Interesting. Troll would put Troll's top three as:

Scien
Nikanor
hohum

in that order.

Papa Zito would have to really be committed to bussing if him be scum. The "mistake" at the end by Cojin really does indicate that there be someone fairly clever that be his partner. Troll be currently inclined to think that MiteyMouse and Sajin be the least likely of those that be left to come up with that. Troll would also think that if MiteyMouse were going to come up with a plan like that she would have done more to not have both scum be the big wagons towards the end of the first day.

Troll talked about Scien yesterday. With Nikanor Troll dislikes the move at the end of the day towards suspecting Sajin or hohum and the subtle feeling about to see if either of those lynches would be acceptable.

The kill of qwints actually feels like the elimination of a potentially strong player who no was under that much pressure with a little bit of an attempt to make hohum look slightly worse (based on the last comment.) Beyond that Troll no cares to speculate much; trying to outguess scum on night kills this early in the game be a bad idea.

Vote: Scien

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll thinks that it would have been engineered to make people say "Oh look, that mistake shows that Cojin be town!" The fact that something like it largely worked for Sajin earlier in the game would have been some motivation.

Troll finds MiteyMouse's play to be pretty poor this game but, really, the mistake she made there didn't do anything much to help scum as it would get pointed out right away. Troll views it as mostly neutral with slight scummy connotations. Troll has little trouble believing that MiteyMouse no had read something carefully given what Troll knows of her play.

Basically, as Troll said, the mistake by Cojin at the end almost had to be intentional as him would have known how many names him submitted. Further it was one that Troll thinks was designed to make him look like town who had misread what the scum would get to do. Coming up with that takes a bit of sophistication. Troll no means to insult MiteyMouse or Sajin but them be the ones in the game Troll finds least likely to have come up with the idea and Troll no thinks that Cojin would have on his own.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

[1]Further, if Cojin does flip scum Troll thinks that Scien be a pretty reasonable one to consider as a partner. [2] Him has gone out of his way to avoid casting suspicion on lurkers in general and Cojin in particular. [3]Troll thinks, looking back at the exchange that Troll and Scien had about Sajin that Scien has misrepresented both Sajin's reaction to realizing that him made a mistake and Troll's actions during our discussion. [4] The fact that him took as much issue as him did with Troll's statement that him was unlikely to be the chosen (along with Troll) hurts him in Troll's eyes as well.

1) Fair. Consider me all you want.
2) I will reiterate right now that I think blind lurker lynches is a bad policy. This is not the only time I have said something to this regard in both this game and others. It's basically an application of a Monty Hall problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem. It all boils down to information. Deciding to lynch someone based on a complete lack of information is the same as random rolling at the start of a game. Its always better to utilize information you gain, rather than trust a lack of information as a good enough tell.

As for the second part. Meh, my idea's applied. In this case I was wrong, but this was just one case.

3) I explicitly said I slightly misrepresented what Sajin was saying, to get a response. Your complaint was that resulted in a weak attack. All attacks are weak in day one. Getting people to talk is more important in early game. But we can talk about where I misrepresented you, where was that?

4) Forgive me if I question someone's motives telling me that I should roll over and take one for the team. I still don't think it is as cut and dry as you are making it, but I never took huge issue with it. I think its odd that you think so. I just merely questioned it.

2. Regardless of your meta what you have done in this game be something that supported what the one person we know was scum was doing (lurking) and excused a behavior on his part that would potentially never lead to direct information from him.

Troll be happy to talk about whether it be worth lynching lurkers after the game be over; Troll be familiar with the Monty Haul Paradox and the decision of whether to lynch a lurker on day one no fits it well. The information that be gathered be part of what should be considered but so it the likelihood of the lurker voting in a reasonable manner at various points in the game.

3. The misrepresentations mostly be centered on the idea that Troll was trying to stop you from questioning Sajin. You made an argument about him that was based on what Troll felt was a false analogy of the situation. Troll briefly pointed out that was the case and you disagreed. The discussion we had continued from there. At no point did Troll try to stop you from asking that question or any other questions of Sajin. Troll was objecting to a particularly weak and misleading question which you only explicitly said was a misrepresentation after Troll had called you on it.

This be a fine example of what Troll be calling misrepresentation of Troll:

See this is interesting. You are claiming that you believe Sajin town, and so I should not be examining him, based on the fact that he might be chosen and it is risky for the town for me to look at him.

4. Troll never said it was cut and dry. Troll was making statements about likelihoods. As to how much you objected, Troll would say that it was certainly greater than Troll's first couple reaction to the issue in number 3 here. In any case, you do be welcome to disagree with Troll; Troll no be calling for anyone to roll over and take one for the team. Troll just be saying what Troll has made of the situation with the chosen ones thus far.

Troll thinks that it would have been engineered to make people say "Oh look, that mistake shows that Cojin be town!" The fact that something like it largely worked for Sajin earlier in the game would have been some motivation.

Oh indeed? I can see some truth in what PapaZ is saying as well though. Coming right out and claiming a pro-town view on someone based on it seems like risky business.

Way too

easy to build a connection between scum on. Who was the first person to suggest some kind of subversive 'mistake' plan in thread? I know it wasn't me. I was still wrestling with both sides of what was being discussed at the time.

Troll actually no intended to say that the other scum would be the one who would have that reaction. That be why Troll said people. It be odd that you should read it that way. Troll actually no has particularly attacked Scien for the way him reacted to Cojin's final mistake. Up till now that be Papa Zito; Troll would expect town to or scum acting like town to react the way you did to Cojin's mistake.

[1] Basically, as Troll said, the mistake by Cojin at the end almost had to be intentional as him would have known how many names him submitted. [...] [2] Coming up with that takes a bit of sophistication. Troll no means to insult MiteyMouse or Sajin but them be the ones in the game Troll finds least likely to have come up with the idea and Troll no thinks that Cojin would have on his own.

1) Or it might have been a real mistake that is still/was being taken advantage of. Are we really trying going to go down that road?

2) I think I can agree with this. Which is why I am currently very skeptical of you, PapaZ, and Hohum. This works on the other side too. If I am going to be pinned as the author of the mistake when I know I am not, who is most likely to lead this attack? The clever PapaZ, Zorblag, and Hohum. I don't think I can see that from the others, unless I truly am fooled by them.

Keep in mind I am still questioning where you are coming from. So far you have suggested to me that I would be a good lynch in a limited situation, and now are trying to link me to a lynched scum based on me wrestling with a idea being discussed. Both of these counter my view on the game due to me knowing my role.

1. Yes, Troll be pretty sure that it did have to be an intentional mistake on Cojin's part. Troll no buys that him just forgot how many people the scum got to exclude from being chosen. That him gave the calculations him did shows that him no simply said the wrong number by accident which could have been an unintentional slip.

2. If you agree on this point here then why bring up your number 1 at all for this? Also, it would seem that you be putting Nikanor in the category of those who would be less likely to come up with a plan like that. Does that be the case?

For the last paragraph Troll does expect that if you be town you would find Troll's latest actions somewhat alarming. You be slightly wrong about the last point but Troll easily be the one who has done the most attacking of you and pushing against what you be attempting.

Troll be a bit unclear about what you have in mind for you sequence of events. Do 1 through 3 be things that happened before Cojin made his mistake or does 1 be the mistake? 4 seems to indicate the former but Troll no be quite sure what you have in mind for 2 and 3 especially if that be the case.

And quite frankly I am hurt that you would think me dumb enough to try to do the linking even after Zorblag specifically said in thread that it could all be a ruse.

This be much more of an appeal to emotion than Troll would expect from Scien.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Fine, we can do the lurking thing now if you really want.

Troll will get to the rest of the post later.

[1] Regardless of your meta what you have done in this game be something that supported what the one person we know was scum was doing (lurking) and excused a behavior on his part that would potentially never lead to direct information from him. [...] [2] Troll be familiar with the Monty Haul Paradox and the decision of whether to lynch a lurker on day one no fits it well. [3] The information that be gathered be part of what should be considered but so it the likelihood of the lurker voting in a reasonable manner at various points in the game.

1) We have no idea if he was active lurking or passive lurking. For all we know he was not around. For all we know he could have been a true participant in the future. I'm not saying that we would necessarily get information out of him. But we did have time to do so.

2) I agree it doesn't fit perfectly, I am using it for a point. Lets abstract it a bit. The Monty Haul thing is all about information. Making the switch is done when you have more information, and therefore has a higher likelihood of being correct. Same thing can be applied here.

Without additional evidence, either from actions taken by the lurker, or through the actions of the rest of the town, you have much less information about the motives of the lurker than you do from any other person in town. I understand that each individual is not a vacuum, and this is a much more nebulous game, but I believe the Monty Haul observation about information still plays a part here. Decisions made with more information matter more than ones with almost no information. Hince my views. My views were expressed before Cojin was cheif lurker. My views are still being expressed. I have expressed the same before now in past games. My view is consistent, and I suggest to you that is is mere coincidence that in this case my view appears to have been helping a scum.

3) Uh, I'm not sure I fully understand this through your flavor. Are you saying that an additional concern is what the lurker might do if they are scum, and are actively lurking? That seems like a bit of fear mongering. Minus all information, there is a higher likelihood they are just townies not playing the game. There is a small chance they are scum not playing the game. There is indeed a chance that they are scum actively lurking and waiting for a chance. All of that is true. But to pick one of the least likely cases, and to base an entire lynch on 'OMG they might do this when we least expect it' is kind of weak without other evidence.

1. We had the following from Cojin which gave us every reason to think that him would continue to lurk throughout as him was giving a running excuse that him could always refer back to:

I post when i can, and scince i dont have my phone anymore, i cant read al the games so my info i gather is within the limited time i am capable of posting, most of that time is spent reaing so not much can be spent posting, its better this then going v/la for a week. double post comming

2. This be much more complicated an issue than the Monty Haul Problem deals with. For that the conditions be set out ahead of time and the changes and new information being received by very controlled (and known by the host ahead of time.) Although there be some analogy to the host opening a door to reveal that it no had the prize behind it in the flip from the lynch (or the night kill) there be many other sources of information here. Further, Troll assumes that the town's choice at the start would be represented by who them be lynching on day one. No matter whether that be the lurker at the start or not we gain more information about everyone that no be lynched. The information we gain about those who be actively participating will usually be greater than that we gain about lurkers. Saying that waiting until future days to make that choice on the lurker will reveal more information about them be true but no more true for them than it would be for others.

3. Troll no was implying that the lurker was any more likely to be scum than anyone else. Troll was alluding to the idea that having an inactive player later in the game be more detrimental than having an inactive player earlier in the game regardless of their alignment. At end game it be important to have players who will participate in the discussion so that it be possible to make reasonable reads. Troll will cite the first game that we played together as why that be the case. One of the things that hurt the town the most in that game was fallen angel's failure to take part in the discussion in a meaningful way. If a player has about the same chance of being scum as everyone else (which players will tend to have at the start of the game) and is likely to not contribute in the end game it be better to lynch them at the time. The active players will provide information from both what them say and how others react to them. Inactive players only provide information via the reactions of others.

If someone no be worth lynching for inactivity on day one when the reads on everyone be the weakest then them will be even less likely to be worth lynching for inactivity later in the game as people get more and more reasons to suspect the other active players.

Papa Zito spent some time trying to work up to this and you consistently brushed him off. It could easily just be how you will always approach the situation but that no makes it any less enabling for scum lurkers. That be especially true if you were scum and could let your partner know this. On it's own that no be any sort of case Troll would care to vote on but it do be part of your play on the whole that Troll be taking issue with in this game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

The misrepresentations mostly be centered on the idea that Troll was trying to stop you from questioning Sajin. You made an argument about him that was based on what Troll felt was a false analogy of the situation. Troll briefly pointed out that was the case and you disagreed. The discussion we had continued from there. At no point did Troll try to stop you from asking that question or any other questions of Sajin. Troll was objecting to a particularly weak and misleading question which you only explicitly said was a misrepresentation after Troll had called you on it.

No indeed you did not stop me from asking the questions. But you were giving out the easy out for the entire engagement. After our side discussion, all Sajin would have to do is parrot your concerns rather than come up with them himself. I still am arguing that he could have come up with those points all on his own if he is town, and it would be slightly harder for him to do so if he is scum.

Scien was asking a number of questions and, as Troll has already said, even if him Cojin were to simply parrot what Troll said him no would have been addressing many of your points. Troll also has no reason to think that him should have been more likely to come up with any of the points on his own as town than him would have been as scum.

Allowing him to do so would have been beneficial. As well as waiting to see if I actually tried to push my weak case to full fledged wagon or vote. It never got that far and that information was removed from the town. Your voiced concerns were premature.

There be no particularly good reason to hold off on pointing out when someone be misrepresenting what another player has said. This be what Troll did originally. When Scien reacted to that it escalated but calling Troll's initial reaction premature assumes that it be best to let misrepresentations go a while rather than pointing them out and letting the better arguments in the thread receive focus. That you no did drop it gives at least as much information as we would have gotten had Troll said nothing.

I'm not really misrepresenting you here. Your concerns, while valid, did limit what I was trying to do and did 'prevent questioning' in a way. They also limited what you could have gained on either side of the isle if you are sitting in pro-town shoes.

This be a fine example of what Troll be calling misrepresentation of Troll:

See this is interesting. You are claiming that you believe Sajin town, and so I should not be examining him, based on the fact that he might be chosen and it is risky for the town for me to look at him.

That quote you are using was in response to this paragraph:

Beyond that particular point, have you been following Troll's conversation with Sajin? Troll no particularly expects him to give answers that will be that useful based on what him has been doing with Troll. If you be using a point which Troll no thinks has merit to attack him then Troll has no trouble at all pointing out the flaws in it

as Troll thinks him be likely to be town, him might be a chosen

and him be unlikely to be able to do so adequately himself. If it weren't for the possibility of him being the chosen Troll would probably just let Scien do as him likes here but Troll wants to make sure that Scien has thought through the reasons him gives for suspecting Sajin in this game because of that dynamic.

I don't think that that quote is a misrepresentation at all. You believed the person town, and understand that if that is the case he also might be chosen.

Troll no be denying that Troll thought that Sajin was town and might be the chosen. What Troll never did was say that Scien shouldn't question him because of this. Troll objected to a misrepresentation being used as an attack. Taking that what Troll had said to mean that Troll's base for objecting to questioning Sajin was that Troll thought him was town be a misrepresentation.

I think your grief is over what I am saying is 'examining' and what you say is 'examining'. I was asking him questions. They were skewed, yes, but I was not using them in a full fledged case. I was attempting to see how he would either catch the skew, or logic around it.

You felt the need to come in and remove the 'skew'. I know that this might not have been vindictive. However I argue that you were jumping the gun and interfering with my look at him.

Actually, Troll felt obligated to come in and point out the skew. If you chose to push on or not that was up to you. Troll expected you to acknowledge the difference right away but you no did.

You basically interfered with the line of questioning because you thought him town, and possibly chosen. Not a misrep at all.

What Troll did was come in and object to your misrepresentation of what Sajin had been doing. Troll would have been less likely to do so if Troll thought him was likely to point it out himself but if him didn't Troll would have done so shortly anyhow. Troll was cutting to the chase in this case.

Troll never said it was cut and dry. Troll was making statements about likelihoods.

Oh? That's fairly odd. Me questioning about it, and disagreeing with your conclusion was enough for it to hurt me in your eyes:

The fact that him took as much issue as him did with Troll's statement that him was unlikely to be the chosen (along with Troll) hurts him in Troll's eyes as well.

That seems like you definitely think there is a correct choice there and disagreeing in this case is scummy. Sounds pretty cut and dry to me.

Troll certainly has an opinion there. Troll's second statement also be about likelihoods and in particular Troll's opinions of them. That no means that Troll's original point about our being less likely to be the chosen should be taken as being clearly the correct state of the game.

Yes, Troll be pretty sure that it did have to be an intentional mistake on Cojin's part. Troll no buys that him just forgot how many people the scum got to exclude from being chosen. That him gave the calculations him did shows that him no simply said the wrong number by accident which could have been an unintentional slip.

I was unsure what his earlier calculations were to arrive at his answers. Thatch why I asked him a question at the end about it. Since I was unsure, I am still unsure how his numbers prove he knew that they had exactly one veto in early game. His range seems like it could have been created with any from an array of possible lines of thoughts in my mind.

Him was scum. Him knew that the scum only submitted one name to be excluded from being chosen based on that. How him constructed his odds at the start did match that knowledge but that no be the important bit. The odds that him was constructing at the end were done in a way that had to use what he knew were false numbers so his mistake must have been intentional.

Troll be a bit unclear about what you have in mind for you sequence of events. Do 1 through 3 be things that happened before Cojin made his mistake or does 1 be the mistake? 4 seems to indicate the former but Troll no be quite sure what you have in mind for 2 and 3 especially if that be the case.

Step 4 is where the mistake was pulled... since that's what it says :D.
That means that everything before is the invisible area of what the scum might have thought of.

What I mean by it? Between you and PapaZ, thats exactly what is suggested the scum did. They came up with a desperate plan, involving a fake 'mistake' that might be construed as a pro-town mistake. Then (this might be all PapaZ), were going to take advantage of that mistake by either busing, or budding. I'm not sure it happened, it might have. But both of you believe 2, and PapaZ believes 3 it seems.

I guess it was more grief about the missing step 5, which would of had to exist, or have the opposite happen in face of your 'it's a trap!' conclusion about the 'mistake'. If PapaZ believes that the scum planned to take advantage of it where did they do so?

OK, Troll sees what you mean. The first three no were things that happened in the thread (Troll had thought you were saying that 2 and 3 in particular had happened somewhere we could see them.) You be right, Troll does believe that number 2 did happen. Troll no thinks that number 3 needs to have been part of the plan at all.

******

Before we continue with this Troll would like to consider taking a time out. There do be issues that get sorted in this sort of exchange and Troll fully accepts that Scien has every right to defend against the points that Troll be using as reasons to vote for him. Troll also clearly feels the need to address issues when Troll thinks them no have been presented correctly. On the other hand, Troll be fairly sure that these posts we be making now be exactly the sort that others no will be reading. Unless Scien thinks that him will convince Troll of things at this point Troll no be sure that him be doing much in the way of convincing others.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

When/if you guys end up lynching me and find me town. What will you do? Go back to lurker hunting? Or chase suspects? Where is the magic line where it becomes more beneficial to engage real players rather than get rid of people for the chance they might be active lurking?

Troll no thinks that there be much indication that lurker hunting be all this town be capable of. Does Scien think this is all that happened yesterday? Was there no engagement of real players? Lynching lurkers no means ignoring the rest of the players in the game.

The only two that Troll be worried about lurking just now be hohum and Nikanor. Another advantage to lynching lurkers be that it discourages the behavior in others either town or scum as them see that it no will be tolerated. Should someone pull the same lurking that Cojin did on day one Troll would be willing to look at them very closely but there do now be other information that likely be more worth pursuing.

Troll also no be interested in lynching Scien right now, him just be the best case Troll has going into day two and hence where Troll's vote goes. Troll would rather have him give input on everyone and then Troll will step back and take another look at what Troll thinks.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

The odds that him was constructing at the end were done in a way that had to use what he knew were false numbers so his mistake must have been intentional.

Wut? I honestly don't understand this. He created odds at the end. What are you saying he did there that proved something of his alignment.

Here be what Cojin said:

The reason i used meta as my defence is because scum got to choose 2 people who not to be choosen, now with a goal of eliminating at least one choosen, you would not want very good players to have a chance now would you? so if 2 are vetoed then that means 5 people have a chance to be choosen, and scince there are 2 choosen thats 2/5 chance for an individual to be choose, i gave myself the leway of about 1/3. I seriously belive, only a foolish scum would veto me, i am not a good player, and it is evident.

That post no proved anything about his alignment. Him could have been town making a mistake about how many vetoes the scum got or scum faking the same mistake. It no be a mistake him would have accidentally made as scum as him knew him had just one veto as him would have been part of the process for making it.

When him flipped scum it became clear that the mistake was intentional.

Sorry. I hate to be a bastard. But I am going to continue. I am not going to go down quietly, and even if there are issues with my play, all my play was developed with pro town motives, if not ends. I don't fault you for telling me to shut up... and I haven't been making it easy with my gigantic posts... however I am not going to die here.

Troll no tells people to shut up or shush. That would be rude. If Scien thinks that continuing be in his best interest then him can do so. Troll thinks that waiting to hear from others might be in his best interest before pushing on but it be your call to make.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

It no be a mistake him would have accidentally made as scum as him knew him had just one veto as him would have been part of the process for making it.

I think you underestimate the power of mistakes. People of both alignments make them. It is very possible that he had very little role in choosing the veto. He could have made a mistake even if he did chose the veto personally. I'll give you that it would be a weird mistake to make. But I've seen people make stranger mistakes before, even things that they should have had first hand knowledge with.

Oh, Troll knows that people make many mistakes regardless of alignment. Troll does that all the time. Troll just thinks that this one be unlikely enough to make as scum that Troll be willing to rule it out. If Scien would like to continue to be skeptical him can but Troll saw enough with this one to satisfy Troll.

Troll thinks that waiting to hear from others might be in his best interest before pushing on but it be your call to make.

No offense. And completely separate from any other of our conversation, but this strikes me a bit odd. You are going to suggest my best interest? I am your chief suspect. Why would you not want me to dig myself a hole, if I truly am scum? Why is it beneficial to you to help me out?

Troll has Scien as Troll's top suspect but Troll no be anywhere near convinced that him be scum. Why would Troll want Scien to dig himself into a hole given that? Troll would rather have Scien playing the game in a more neutral environment so that Troll can continue to gather information from him. If we continue what we be up to now we'll continue to talk past each other and Troll's judgment be clouded when involved in direct exchanges of this sort regardless of how hard Troll tries to avoid that.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yes, Troll considered mentioning another player who would do that. Troll's game style be more about stating Troll's thoughts, objecting to play Troll no likes and praising play Troll does like. Pressuring people for tells and convincing others to vote with Troll no really be a part of it in the first couple days. Troll gets plenty of tells out of what Troll does to satisfy Troll and Troll finds pressure induced gaffs to be as likely to be town mistakes as scum slips most of the time.

In any case, Scien can do as him likes. Troll no will give in if Troll disagrees with points and will respond but Troll suspects that for now people have seen where both Scien and Troll stand on the issues we have been talking about.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien, Troll thinks that Cojin's lynch went through in large part because Papa Zito kept pushing it. If it no were for that MiteyMouse was looking like she might get strung up fairly easily. Does Scien think that Papa Zito as scum would be that likely to throw his partner under the bus when there were other options that could be pursued about as easily?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

2) That kind of depends on some factors. But I already said that I thought it was kind of unlikely that you made the mistake intentionally. BTW, if the chosen did know that they were chosen, would you have broken the game? What would have played out if that was the case?

Remind Troll to answer this after Sajin does.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Sajin no seemed to fully realize it at the time (or apparently now) but his plan of having the chosen claim would have been an automatic win for the town if it was followed. If we have a group of at most four people we that know includes both the chosen then we simply lynch anyone outside that group at all every day and eventually win. With only two scum them can never have enough others in the chosen pool to stop the town from being able to lynch a non-chosen and that be all that the town needs to do to win.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

You know, Troll be fairly put off by the fact that two of Troll's top three suspects be the ones who be doing the least in this thread at this time.

Nikanor, you no need to completely absorb the exchange that Scien and Troll had to have opinions to share. hohum Troll knows you have been about as you have been posting in other threads. Troll finds this lack of participation on both of your parts while Scien be under the microscope to be most unhelpful.

Unvote

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If hohum still suspects Sajin then Troll be most interested in hearing hohum's answers to the questions that Scien asked a bit ago:

I have general questions to the town while I am rereading.

Sajin made a mistake in early game as well. It was tossed around what the mistake meant towards his alignment.

Do you think that mistake and the possibly intentional scum mistake have any connection? Do you think that the earlier mistake was pulled in the same manner as this one? Do you think that somehow the earlier mistake connects Sajin in on the more recent scum ploy?

I'm not suggesting I think one way or the other. Just want to hear other people's thoughts, and today has been quiet so far.

Personally, Troll be pretty happy with how Scien has been playing today. The wall-o-text-o-thon went on a bit more than it should but Troll has to take equal blame for that. What it did was show that him does be willing to give answers to all the questions Troll be asking. Clearly we disagree about some details but disagreeing with Troll about details no makes someone scum. Since that exchange ended Scien's expressed views be entirely ones that Troll finds likely. If him be scum him could be playing on Troll's stated views as him be agreeing with them, but for now him be doing enough to make Troll want to look in other places.

Scien still be on Troll's list of potential scum but him has dropped. If Troll had to vote right now it would be for Nikanor but Troll still wants to hear from both Nikanor and hohum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

hohum, Troll no minds being at the top of your list. Troll actually mostly be glad if Sajin be off it as Troll no thinks that his actions add up at all as the other scum this game. Troll be less likely to be chosen than Sajin does in Troll's opinion so if you be trying to get one of the two of us lynched then Troll prefers it be Troll to Sajin.

Troll does wonder why putting together a well reasoned argument no should be a reason to see Troll as a useful resource for the town but Troll can live with the competence based enhanced suspicion for now.

As for Nikanor, Troll sees that him gave a very similar message to the other games him was in to the one him gave here. Troll no can go into specifics as that would be talking about ongoing games but something that stands out for this game that Troll no saw anywhere else was the request to be replaced if him no posted in the next 24 hours.

Here be Troll's case on Nikanor (we no can sit around and let those not posting hold us hostage to the clock in a game with deadlines this short so Troll has decided to get down to Troll's actual reasons.) His initial play strikes Troll as very competent which means that Troll no has any reason to rule him out as Cojin's partner. Him did vote for Cojin not once but twice but each time him changed his vote most quickly to MiteyMouse. The first time was fine and on it's own the second time was fine but the quick change twice be noteworthy. After his vote was on MiteyMouse the second time him started to pick up on the Sajin/hohum conflict. That this no came until two days before the end of the day be surprising given that it was going on the entire time. Him seemed to be perfectly willing to let Sajin lead him into a vote and went so far as to say that him was happy with his vote unless there was interest in Sajin or hohum with no mention of Cojin.

Him got prodded once during day one and Troll called for another prod later. Him responded immediately which be evidence that him was following the thread to some degree even though him no was posting. If anyone in this game be active lurking it be Nikanor or hohum but hohum has a more coherent story for his reasons.

Troll be happy to talk about Troll's reasons for Troll's upcoming vote for Nikanor and Troll no actually agrees with the reasons Sajin seems to be giving for finding Nikanor the most likely scum but Troll feels that the vote be appropriate at this time.

Vote Nikanor

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

This game be harder to play when there no be activity. We now be half way through our two week day. Right now Troll be willing to lynch either Nikanor or hohum. Troll would lynch Scien or Troll rather to avoid a no lynch but probably not others (well, maybe Papa Zito.)

MiteyMouse, who do you suspect that this time? Troll wants to see a vote.

Sajin, where did you go? Does Nikanor still be your first choice for a lynch today?

Nikanor, Troll agrees that you addressed the points Troll brought up. Troll no finds the answers particularly satisfying as them seem to be saying that you no were giving the game your full effort but that be fine because it be normal for you to do that. Troll wonders if you outlined the bulk of your case against hohum with that last post or if there be more?

hohum, Troll be waiting for you to return and finish what you started when you dodged the replacement bullet.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll no thinks that MiteyMouse be scum but her last couple posts no be helpful.

MiteyMouse, you said that you were looking at Nikanor and Scien as your most likely suspects but that their recent activity makes them look pretty good. What made you suspect them in the first place and what about what them said makes them look pretty good? Them have done pretty different things in Troll's opinion.

Also, Troll would like to point out that if you be casting a vote as a pressure vote it often does more good not to acknowledge that the vote be a pressure vote as you cast it. Saying that you no think hohum be scum while you be voting for him makes the vote much less likely to accomplish what you want it to.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse, there be a reason that Troll no used those questions in this game. With just one being excluded and two chosen there no be the same sort of useful patterns to be garnered. Troll saw what you did last time you asked this sort of question and Troll was most unimpressed with how you tried to use the information. Do you have some other use for it this time? If not then it just serves as a distraction when we be running short on time.

Scien, defending yourself overly just because you know you be town be suboptimal play in this game. Unless you be chosen (you think you might be and it be possible; Troll thinks you probably no be) then your lynch can actually help the town win in some situations. For what it matters, you also no have a good read on Troll's take on your play. Troll would have excluded one of Papa Zito, qwints and Scien were Troll scum. Troll no be sure it would have matter too much which of the three.

In any case, Troll hopes none of that matters. hohum be posting the bare minimum to stay in the game (and not even that at one point) and promised undelivered contributions. The hammer yesterday when him was apparently sure that Cojin was town indicates that even if him be town we have no reason to trust his judgment down the line but right now Troll thinks that him be scum playing as inactive a game as possible and hoping that the lynch lands somewhere other than him.

Troll has the ability to hammer him now. Troll will use it.

Vote: hohum

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Er, to make Incognito happy Troll should have said:

Unvote. Vote: hohum

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Zorblag, do you still think that myself and you are the least likely to be chosen? If so, should we be talking about that win condition more seriously now?

Actually, with those flip Troll no be so sure anymore. Both Papa Zito and Nikanor now be pretty attractive options for not being the chosen as well now that Troll has additional information and Scien might actually be looking more like a Chosen to Troll than him did before.

Part of the reason for Troll to say as strongly as Troll did who be unlikely to be the chosen at the start was to give the scum more incentive to kill either Troll or Scien during the night. qwints wasn't a kill Troll had expected but it no was overly surprising given what Troll knows of him. Sajin on the other hand wasn't a kill that Troll expected at all. Troll was pretty sure that him was town but him also had a fair chance of being a chosen so him would have been good to leave around merely for the purposes of distraction. His play didn't strike Troll as strong enough to eliminate someone over so Troll would have expected him to be low on the list of those likely to get killed.

That neither Troll nor Scien be dead now be interesting.

Of course now that it is down to a single suspect on my list, that means that I am starting to second guess my conclusion that it had to be either Nik, Sajin, or PapaZ.

That clearly should be hohum rather than Papa Zito on your list.

Now, the other angle is that the Scum could have put the people that are the Chosen on their list. I would have put the Chosen on my list if I were Scum, to make it look like they have less chance of being the Chosen.

And this was what MiteyMouse came up with the last time as well. Troll no bought it then and Troll buys it even less now. Troll no thinks that scum would be significantly more likely to put the chosen on their list than other players. It be an overly simplistic idea and those that people be listing be largely those Troll would expect from them regardless of their roles.

Nikanor, you said you wanted to say something once people had given their choices. Has this now been said or was there something else?

At this point Troll has the following thoughts:

MiteyMouse got much attention during the first day but almost none the second day. Troll still thinks that Cojin's mistake was faked and that Cojin and MiteyMouse be the ones that be least likely to have come up with that plan. Given all that Troll sees in the game it just be unlikely in Troll's opinion that she be mafia.

The Sajin kill actually probably makes Nikanor look a bit better than him did before. It takes away much of the issue Troll had with him considering switching to Sajin or hohum towards the end of day one (the only reason left would be to save a scum partner rather than trying to switch to a chosen.) It would still be worth trying Troll supposes but the rewards go down. Day two Nikanor also didn't do anything to pursue anyone who might be a chosen.

Papa Zito has voted for every single dead vanilla townie we have thus far and was on the Cojin wagon (him more or less lead the Cojin wagon, starting it when it no was a clear best choice and pushing it along throughout day one.) Of those that still be alive him has voted for just Scien Troll believes. If Papa Zito be scum then him no be doing much to actively get the chosen lynched (possibly excepting a Scien chosen case but him no did that much along those lines.) Troll be a bit inclined to think that him should be town.

That leaves Scien who be letting the game happen much more than actually trying to influence it. Troll has talked already about the troubles Troll had with his day one play. Day two him was more concerned about living than Troll would like but that be a pretty common issue for people to have. Again, him hasn't made any sort of push on whoever the chosen might be as him has only ever voted for qwints and hohum Troll be pretty sure.

Right now, of those that be alive, here be the ones who have voted for them (who still be alive.) Troll no thinks Troll has forgotten any votes but if there be something that be missing please fill it in.

MiteyMouse: Nikanor, Zorblag
Nikanor: Zorblag
Papa Zito: None
Scien: Papa Zito, Zorblag
Zorblag: None

Troll needs to think on this a bit.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito has voted for every single dead vanilla townie we have thus far

As well as you and Mitey. I'll let you think about it, as you said you wanted to, but I'm curious what kind of conclusion you are going to draw from that?

There be a couple things that Scien could mean there but neither seem to be true. Papa Zito no has voted for Troll or MiteyMouse Troll no thinks. Further, Troll no voted for qwints ever (did Trol?) and MiteyMouse no voted for either qwints or Sajin Troll no thinks.

As for what Troll will come up with, Troll be curious as well. Currently the best fit scenario Troll can think of for everything that we be working with still no fits all that well.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, it be pretty clear from the last rule in the voting, lynching and death section that them no be forced to night kill.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll would like to hear what Nikanor found when him did the readings him planned to in his last couple posts as well as his top couple suspicions.

Troll would like to hear more about MiteyMouse's suspicions as well at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Why Nikanor over Scien? Yesterday MiteyMouse seemed to treat the two as being similar.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Zorblag: You said earlier that you think both you and Scien are unlikely to be chosen. Do you still think this? We have a chance to win by lynching two townies in a row. If you still believe both of you are townies, do you think we have a good chance of winning by chainlynching you and Scien?

It be so good to see that people be hanging on Troll's every word.

Zorblag, do you still think that myself and you are the least likely to be chosen? If so, should we be talking about that win condition more seriously now?

Actually, with those flip Troll no be so sure anymore. Both Papa Zito and Nikanor now be pretty attractive options for not being the chosen as well now that Troll has additional information and Scien might actually be looking more like a Chosen to Troll than him did before.

Part of the reason for Troll to say as strongly as Troll did who be unlikely to be the chosen at the start was to give the scum more incentive to kill either Troll or Scien during the night. qwints wasn't a kill Troll had expected but it no was overly surprising given what Troll knows of him. Sajin on the other hand wasn't a kill that Troll expected at all. Troll was pretty sure that him was town but him also had a fair chance of being a chosen so him would have been good to leave around merely for the purposes of distraction. His play didn't strike Troll as strong enough to eliminate someone over so Troll would have expected him to be low on the list of those likely to get killed.

The whole thing with Papa Zito being the first to vote Cojin being a towntell seems a bit overrated to me. Seeing how much Cojin undervalued himself makes me think he may have told Papa Zito to bus him indescriminately. I also see that Cojin has stopped playing on Mafiascum.net entirely, so he may have told Papa Zito to bus him in a suicide attempt.

It no just be that Papa Zito was the first vote on the Cojin wagon so much as that he was pushing the wagon to the exclusion of about anything else. Cojin did very little but what him did no made it seem like him was actually eager to be out of the game. The last posts from him argue against that a fair amount in Troll's opinion.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

So Troll has thought things through. None of the remaining players seem perfect for scum in Troll's mind but Nikanor does seem the most likely. Troll went over some reasons yesterday, Nikanor responded and Troll acknowledged that response even though it no did much to change Troll's opinions. Today Nikanor and Papa Zito both be citing the same post by Cojin which be interesting. Nikanor says that the FoS on Papa Zito feels forced and gives a one game meta of him doing that to distance from partners but Troll tends to think that if it be forced it be as likely to be because it be an FoS on a chosen as distancing from a partner.

Troll finds Nikanor's arguments against Papa Zito to be fairly flimsy at this point but them fit into a game where Nikanor and Cojin be scum and Papa Zito and MiteyMouse be the chosen reasonably well. Right now that be Troll's best guess for what be happening.

Vote: Nikanor

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Actually, Troll could see lurking on the part of scum confident that them could avoid getting lynched and not pushing any cases as a pretty viable tactic in this setup with two chosen. Especially after Cojin got lynched the first day. The way to go about it would involve never night killing and giving the town as many chances as possible to lynch a chosen on their own. Troll thinks that Troll PMd the mod with this thought when Troll first saw the rules. Happily whoever the scum be no came to the same conclusion about that. That there have been night kills makes any passive scum strategy a much more marginal thing.

Incidentally, we should now be past the time when it might matter, so here be what people were not fully taking into account during the discussion about no lynches earlier: any time it actually be a better choice for the town to no lynch the scum can force the town to lynch by not killing for two straight nights. If it was ever clear that no lynching was the correct decision it no would be one that we could choose if we be up against competent scum. Given the site-wide meta opposing no lynch those pushing it would need to spell out the reasons well enough for the scum to see them and use this appropriate counter.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, many of your arguments seemed to involve using the night kills the scum made as additional sources of information. There was one point where you said that it could be used for time (in a situation where the scum could be forced to no kill in response to a no lynch) but Troll no saw awareness that the scum would be best served by no night killing in most situation where the town would be best served by no lynching. If you had taken that into account then that be good. Troll no thinks that it was clear from what you said.

The reason Troll held off on mentioning the specifics there till now was to avoid giving scum more access to the idea that no night kills might be a good strategy in general until one chosen was lynched. Now it be too late for them to use that.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Papa Zito, you had made it pretty clear that you thought MiteyMouse was scum. Troll thinks that it no be at all unreasonable for Scien to think that you would be willing to switch to her wagon without all that much pressure. Troll knows that Troll wasn't sure if you would switch before Troll did or not when we were getting to the second half of day one. Troll had a deadline in mind for Troll and stuck to it so that there would be some L-1 pressure before the very end of the day.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

*nods* Troll did see that. Troll also assumed that if we got close to deadline that Papa Zito would switch to MiteyMouse to see if that would result in a lynch rather than staying with Cojin and settling for a no lynch with two wagons that no were moving. Does Troll be wrong about that?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll no saw awareness that the scum would be best served by no night killing in most situation where the town would be best served by no lynching.

Meh. I didn't really feel like telling the scum how to act. Same reason I said that the remaining scum would be feeling pressure without explaining why. If we hit a vanilla townie here today, they have no night option. Now is his time to push for something, if he was indeed just sitting on the sidelines like is being suggested as a possibility. Besides... it is pretty explicit in the rules that the town has to have the final action... that was a pretty obvious loss condition was even bolded.

Again, if you saw this on day one that be fine but your stated reasons for considering a no lynch often involved getting to use night kills that the mafia made as additional sources of information. Troll's point here be that scum had every reason never to let that come up. As for sitting at the sidelines today, if scum are pretty sure them aren't going to be lynched today it still be a somewhat viable path; if we no lynch them today then we have a decent chance of hitting a chosen on our own. If we lynched a vanilla townie today then we'd still have to try again tomorrow after no night kills and we'd be equally likely to hit a chosen as we would scum or the final vanilla townie by numbers alone.

The reason that Troll no be that worried about scum using that tactic now be that it would be best used if it had been the plan all along; in that case there should have been no night kills.

I find it odd that you would think so when I espoused his lynch the whole back half of the day.

You find it odd? The cases on them were both similar. Mostly lurking claims, followed by lynch all lurker arguments. Why would the lurker matter? I don't see how me thinking you would switch after the quote I mentioned would be a unreasonable assumption.

Papa Zito's case on MiteyMouse wasn't lurking though. It was the incorrect statement of the win conditions that she made early in the game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Zorblag
The general cases. Others were on her for lurking as well as other reasons.

Troll thinks that saying the case on Cojin was for lurking be largely fair. Troll no thinks that be the case for MiteyMouse. Trying to equate the two wagons as both being for lurking seems like a mischaracterization.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

It do be less than Troll might have hoped for from Nikanor given the state of the game but it no be Troll's opinion about this that matters at this time.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Oh, Troll be about and has been commenting on things that Troll finds interesting when Troll thinks it no will get in the way of any interesting thoughts people might express. Unfortunately the game be a bit listless at the moment. Troll be comfortable with Troll's vote and mostly be waiting for the three who no have cast votes yet to make some sort of decision.

Troll no be sure what it is MiteyMouse wants to make sure we get out of this day but we no be in danger of hitting the deadline so Troll no be pushing it for now.

Troll finds Scien's behavior to be a fairly unsurprising continuation of what him has done before though Troll be watching to see what him does with Nikanor's responses to his questions (or the lack of them where it be an issue.)

Nikanor be curiously short on strong opinions just now but him can react to this situation as him chooses.

If any would like input from something in particular Troll be happy to provide it but the ball no be in Troll's court at this time in general.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll no be sure if Troll counts as one that MiteyMouse thinks be town but Troll thinks that MiteyMouse controls her own vote. Troll be responsible for how Troll votes and casts it without asking for permission as Troll sees fit. If either Troll or Papa Zito thought hammering Nikanor were a bad idea now them no should have their votes on him. On the other hand Troll no will push the hammer now and would prefer to have MiteyMouse make a decision and give reasons on her own rather than having her do as someone else says. If there be other particular things that MiteyMouse had hoped to see today then perhaps doing something more active to make them seen would be of use.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

The Sajin kill on night two continues to be as troublesome for Troll as anything else that has happened this game. We now be left with four players who all know each other reasonably well. Exactly one of the four of us be a vanilla townie who, based on everything that Troll saw from Sajin, should have been a better kill night two. Sajin was most likely town but him was also reasonably like to be taken for possibly being the chosen. Someone that be left seems to have been working to get an endgame with these players (or not trying to avoid it) which seems that it should be the sub-optimal play for anyone here.

Troll has gotten essentially no attacks throughout the game and it no particularly be for lack of trying on Troll's part. Troll thinks that Troll should be at least as likely to be the vanilla townie as anyone else. If Troll be a chosen it would explain why Troll still be alive but the night kills seem to be designed to take such arguments away from anyone here.

MiteyMouse probably be the one that would be most likely to leave this collection of people for the end game but Troll just has trouble with the idea that she and Cojin would cross-bus so vigorously in the early game. She do be pegged as likely chosen as of now by most but that process no finished until after both the night kills happened. For now Troll will say that chosen be the most likely role for her especially is it fits so well with Cojin voting for her.

Scien and Papa Zito then be the most likley to be scum in Troll's opinion. If it be Papa Zito him must have been willing to aggressively bus Cojin right from the start of the game and never try to get a chosen lynched unless Scien be a chosen. Him would have to think that him would both be able to avoid lynch himself and get one of the two chosen lynched today though him could pretty easily have been setting up to lynch MiteyMouse after day one as chosen.

With Scien it be a matter of deciding whether him would be willing to spend the entire game as passively as him has. The vote for Nikanor no was all that bold as MiteyMouse was likely to vote for her anyhow and neither Papa Zito nor Troll had given much indication that them would be switching to anyone else other than perhaps Scien (and even that be a stretch.) If him be scum his initial tentativeness probably cost him the chance to act in a manipulative way later on as him was in a spot where him had to defend or actively go against what the more active/agressive players were doing to push any chosen lynch. The trouble be that this be worse play than Troll thinks him should do as scum.

Troll supposes that Troll thinks the most likely scenario be the one Papa Zito came up with but it still makes Troll uncomfortable. If Scien be scum then either Troll or Papa Zito should be vanilla and should be dead by now and that clearly no be the case.

Troll still be thinking this over.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

We actually no have to be fairly sure that someone be the vanilla townie if we be trying to win simply be avoiding chosen (which currently be by default easier than trying to win by lynching scum as the set of wins for that be a super set of the set of wins from lynching scum.) Rather we just have to be fairly sure that someone be either the vanilla townie or scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

How sure are you guys are that I am scum? If you assumed that I was not scum would you see me as vanilla or chosen? I ask because I am still fighting if I should be the lynch. Someone could vote me, and see if I was hammered... if not I would be confirmed vanilla or scum, and the town could finish me for the win. Risky...

Troll no be sure at all. Someone be subtle this game. More so than in the last game we were all in.

Also that plan no works. We no have a way to know that the scum haven't cast the first or second vote. What we gain with two votes on A with B no hammering is that either B no be scum or A no be chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

With four alive it takes three to lynch. But even if it were two we no could be sure that it no was scum who cast the first vote.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, if it was just two votes required and it was a self vote then yes, we could be sure that them no were chosen. Interesting. Sadly it no helps us as you said.

Troll thinks you might have the question you be asking phrased in a way other than you intended. In any case, Troll thought that Sajin was town since day one. Troll thought him had a decent chance of being chosen until him got night killed.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

MiteyMouse expressed the trouble there. Before the night kill be the only state that matters as after the night kill we knew Sajin was town. Clearly you had two related questions in mind but you only asked on as it was phrased. Troll wondered if you meant to ask about the chances of Sajin be chosen which Troll included in Troll's answer.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

That last post by Scien makes an interesting assumption. Without Troll saying what it is does Scien know what it be?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll takes that to mean that Papa Zito sees what it is? Here it be from Troll in some code or other:

N E G T T D E A A E G D Y E R N A N

If Papa Zito has it a similar code no would be a bad idea for the purposes of comparison after Scien has answered.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Notepad be Troll's best friend for these. Troll used them a couple times in the other Chosen game and was able to just copy and paste from what Troll had on the notepad then. Memory be a poor thing to rely on. But then Troll might be biased as Troll has a terrible memory.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll thinks that you have the same idea as Troll thinks that Troll knows what your code be and worked through what most of it likely means. Troll supposes we will see soon enough.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll's code was the last letter in each word. It was:

Scien be assuming that it would be a vanilla townie getting lynched day three rather than a chosen.

Troll thinks that Papa Zito's code was the first letter in each word. Troll's guess for what him was saying be:

For Scien to assume that, Scien must have known that our lynch would off(?) a non-chosen target(?). *Second sentence not that important.*

Troll's guess for the second sentence be much weaker, a potential start be:
The one who first said that knew that ...?

Why would Scien be assuming that a chosen no would be lynched? If one had been (and there were as many of them as there were vanilla townies so that no be at all clear that it would be expected them no would be lynched) the scum would have had another night kill on night three to take it down to better odds for the scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

No. I will not commit to a single list... I am not confident enough of what I am unsure of to commit to a list. But I am sure of at least what Zorblag's and my positions are right now.

What do be Troll's position right now?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Right, Troll thinks that Scien be lining up for Papa Zito or Mitey Mouse, Papa Zito be lining up for Troll or Scien with a lean towards Scien and MiteyMouse be, well, Troll no can tell but it no matters as Troll no thinks she be scum.

Vote: Zorblag

Troll could be reading this wrong but it seems like the best move that Troll can make. The Troll no be vanilla setup shtick be exactly why Troll would be kept alive. If Troll do be chosen then one of three player has played this well and Troll be impressed. This game no did go how Troll expected it to in any case.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Oh, Troll be pretty clear on what you be saying. Troll thinks that you be scum or wrong and not sure enough about which to make it worth voting for you because Troll thinks that Papa Zito be leaning towards voting you in the long run (Troll could be wrong about that pretty easily but Troll will go with Troll's gut at this time.)

That Troll could only be alive if Troll were the chosen be WIFOM. Scum that have made it this far just need to have fooled the town about one vanilla townie. Troll started the game pushing the idea that Troll would be the ideal one to exclude from being the chosen and that Troll should be night killed if Troll were just a vanilla townie. Perhaps Troll no was excluded and be the chosen but Troll does think that all those that be left in the game would have reason to put Troll near the top of their excluded list (Troll be arrogant that way.) Troll be looking an even number of steps into a WIFOM scenario but Troll thinks that it be the safest way to go at this point to lynch Troll. The fact that Scien be convinced that it be a bad idea be part of the reason why. Troll no be sure him has the wrong intentions but it should be the initial reaction Troll would expect people to have and Troll no trusts obvious initial reactions in this game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, Troll once again has to decide what to make of a mistake it seems. Troll will think on that some.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien has it right it looks like. There be no reason to think that Scien would have expected self votes to count double. It be a bit surprising that Papa Zito would assume that especially after the talk that had just happened about it taking three votes and how a self vote no would clear things up for this game now but it was the case for the last Chosen game we played in.

If Papa Zito be telling the truth then we can rule out the possibility of him being scum and Troll being chosen. As Troll knows that Troll be town and be unsure about Papa Zito for Troll that actually be a pretty big deal as it makes Troll's self vote more comfortable.

If Papa Zito knew it was a mistake him was making then him could have been doing a number of things. If him do be scum and Troll be a chosen him could have been trying to get Troll to keep Troll's vote where it be and do exactly the sort of reassuring that would happen if Troll believed him were telling the truth. That seems really unnecessary to Troll as Troll no thinks that Troll had given any indication that Troll was fooling around and likely to change Troll's vote but perhaps him was worried about it. It feels like it would be too much of a risk to get something to happen as it was likely to anyhow though given how much of the flow of the game mistakes and reactions to them have already changed (clearing Sajin in some eyes, condemning Cojin.) It also could have been done in this case to make either Scien or MiteyMouse more willing to vote for Troll if Papa Zito was overly worried that both would be holding back.

If Papa Zito be scum and Troll be a vanilla townie it could have been done to make Troll more sure that Papa Zito was town as him no was hammering and making some issue of it. That would probably involve convincing Troll that Scien be likely enough to be scum that him was worth voting for but Troll no sees how him would expect that to happen. If we do be in this situation though Papa Zito likely had little to lose by trying whatever him could to get Troll's vote elsewhere as Troll thinks that Troll be the odds on favorite for the lynch no matter what happens from here on out.

If Papa Zito be town him could actually still be faking the mistaking. Him could have been trying to get either Scien or MiteyMouse to "hammer" as scum for what them thought was the win. Actually, this be clever; Troll probably no should have corrected Scien about how many votes it takes to hammer at this time for a similar attempt earlier. If that was the case it be moot now as Incognito quickly cleared things up.

On the whole Troll thinks that it be more likely to either not be a mistake or be one intended to help the town or get Troll to change Troll's vote than leave it where it was. Troll no really cares which of those cases be true if any are.

In time this might help either Scien or MiteyMouse when them see that Troll's presistence with keeping Troll's vote on Troll mean that Troll be less and less likely to be scum as time goes on. We will have to see how things play out.

If Troll's take on this be the wrong one and Papa Zito do be making an intentional mistake to get Troll to stay where Troll was him played it well.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Er, if all could hold off on voting while Troll confirms something with the mod it would be good.

Mod: Should any chosen be lynched during the game when the first chosen to be lynched is lynched are they revealed as a chosen?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Mod: Thanks for the clarification. Troll was more worried about the first chosen as them no were explicitly mention and Troll occasionally swerves in the direction of paranoia.

OK, Troll confirmed what Troll wanted to. Troll now encourages all to lynch Troll. Troll absolves any who be worried about the wisdom of this of responsibility. If it leads to a town loss you can blame it all on Troll.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And yet Troll will be keeping Troll's vote on Troll. If you be worried now Troll expects it to pass with time. Troll, if scum, no would be pushing for a Troll lynch.

If you want to delay you be welcome to but it be just that, delaying.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

From what you know of Troll would Troll be voting as Troll is without being confident? Troll might be wrong but this be the most likely way to victory that Troll can see. It also has the advantage of making Troll's alignment clear to all as time goes by and Troll no wavers. In this particular end game all three town players need to work together so certainty of intention be valuable.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And now we get to see how wrong Troll was about Scien or MiteyMouse. This be the fun bit.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And that clears up the danger from MiteyMouse.

If Troll do be the chosen then Troll will be leading us to a loss. Troll thinks that no will happen but Troll could be wrong.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If MiteyMouse be scum then Troll no be chosen as she would have won otherwise. That was a minor concern Troll had and now it be gone.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Yeah, Troll thought Troll's position on this was clear. Troll fully plans on getting lynched at this point; delaying no seems that useful.

Troll wouldn't mind hearing Papa Zito's take on his mistake earlier though if people want to spend the time doing something other than lynching Troll.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, MiteyMouse could be the scum Troll supposes. There be reasons for Troll to think it no should have been any of the three of you. MiteyMouse was Troll's last choice so if it be her then this be a most well played game and Troll will have to reassess some things after the game be over.

In any case, Troll thinks that Troll as a chosen makes even less sense right now than any of the three of you as scum so Troll went with the easy vote. It also be the easiest for Troll to control and Troll does enjoy control.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm? Oh, Papa Zito could still be scum and Troll the chosen, yes. No matter what choice gets made there be a danger of getting it wrong; Troll would think that should be obvious in mafia. If Papa Zito has Troll fooled then him has played Troll well. It be plausible but Troll deems it less likely than that Troll be vanilla.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, Troll's going to make this as clear as possible. Troll must be town because Troll be trying to get Troll lynched and Troll plays to win (hence Troll no would do it as scum in LyLo or town normally.) All three town have to vote together to win this game; it takes three votes to lynch and that be the entire town. Troll no will be voting for anyone other than Troll therefore if someone else gets lynched there will be scum on the wagon. Scum no would vote in a way that loses the game. Therefore any lynch other than Troll's lynch will lose this game for town. Voting for anyone other than Troll be anti-town at this time (though it shouldn't get you lynched as Troll no will vote for you.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Hmm, that actually raises an interesting strategy for scum to use (indeed one scum might have used this game.) Up until Nikanor flipped vanilla Troll had always gone with the assumption that scum's best bet was to exclude those that were less likely to get lynched so that them could kill them at night if it was needed. In actuality it makes just as much sense in a situation like the one we be in to have the person least likely to get lynched be a vanilla townie so that the chosen be more likely to be lynched. That be the easiest way to explain how we ended up with the endgame we did. Troll had been working on that assumption as least as recently as when Troll voted for Troll but Troll no had thought to put it in words like that until just now. Troll be disappointed in Troll that Troll no had come up with that earlier.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Of course, it do still be possible that Papa Zito or Scien be the last scum and Troll be a chosen. We no will actually know till the game be over.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

The night kills were made for some reason. On their own them be most strange. Setting up this endgame be a much more reasonable motive. Qwints was the least likely to get killed outside this group the first night and Sajin was more likely to live through day three than Nikanor was.

Troll could pretty easily see the game being directed to this particular endgame. And anyhow it no matters. So long as the scum stay out of the lynch rope and have another vanilla townie that does the same that strategy would win. It be an alternative to the more aggressive approach needed to deliberately kill a chosen and lets it happen passively instead.

Troll has been lynched twice here on mafia scum before this game. The first game Troll played Troll was lynched as the final scum the final day. Troll was lynched once in a game where Troll replaced in for a particularly scummy townie close to deadline and no could get out of the noose without potentially hurting the town (by directing suspicions elsewhere in ways Troll no knew would do the town any better.) In all of the rest of Troll's plays Troll has lived till the endgame. If the scum wanted to be sure to have a vanilla townie that did that them could make worse choices than Troll.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Er, or been night killed. Troll has been night killed a number of times as well. Just not lynched outside of those two times prior to this game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

And, for that matter, excluding the strongest (least likely to get lynched) player works for either strategy. Them no need to commit at the start. If day one ends up with a chosen lynch Troll be sure them would take it. If it goes as badly as day one did here for the scum then them have the option of playing a grey man scum game (staying in the background and just not getting lynched) and leaving the excluded around as well.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien seems to be the young one. Him turns a strapping 25 later this month according to his profile.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll no can particularly remember being 25 as Troll's memory be crap. But from where Troll be sure Troll must have been at the time (Wisconsin) it was probably a pretty good year full of much cider and gin (which probably contribute to the memory thing.)

Troll plans on feeling really foolish when it turns out that Papa Zito do be the scum and Troll be the chosen. Troll still no going to change Troll's vote though.

Papa Zito do be right. Voting for Troll simply gets on with the inevitable here.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Scien took long enough looking at the thread before posting that him no should be scum. It comes down to whether Papa Zito be tricky enough to have won this Troll thinks. Troll supposes we will find out soon enough. In any case, Troll enjoyed the game more than Troll was expecting to.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Well, Troll be somewhat playable here. Scien or Papa Zito (or MiteyMouse really) could have done it given that Troll no has made any secret about Troll's willingness to use the chosen mechanic to go for a non-standard victory (as Troll has now tried to do.)

Troll be hopefully but Troll has been wrong after the last vote was cast before. We'll see when Incognito gives us a result.

Though, really, if any of you had ever heard Troll sing Karaoke (which Troll enjoys doing) you would know that Troll really never had a chance to be chosen.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Oh, Troll still really thinks that mistake was intentional. Troll might just be underrating Cojin or MiteyMouse in terms of ability to come up with it. His math was too precise to be unintentionally wrong.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If this all be true then Troll really does have to reassess MiteyMouse and we got damned lucky as town this game.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

That there be no sense in lying now no stops some people from doing it. Scien even praised that sort of thing in the post /in-vitational 1 game.

Troll has learned to be suspicious of things going right.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

*chuckles* Troll no actually thinks that you would do it Scien. Troll actually no minds terribly if others chose to deceive after the game be over but before the mod comes in to finalize things. Troll no would do it personally, but at worst it just gives people a false sense of victory for a while and there be much worse things than that.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

OK, now things be final. Good work town. Great work MiteyMouse, you came really close to winning as scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll thanks Incognito for the fine modding and all for the play. Good game all. Certainly not easy but in the end most good.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Incidentally, for those who still think that you no should be aggressively exploiting the special mechanics in games, Troll was able to be part of a win here (and in fact be the one who pushed it through in some ways) despite being as wrong as it was possible to be about who the remaining scum was. Troll's list would have been, in order, Scien, Papa Zito, Mitey Mouse. If it no were for Troll's ability to try to target the vanilla townie at the end Troll would have almost certainly been part of a wagon that lost this game.


Sure, Troll might have been a bit lucky but a win be a win and looking for whatever path be most likely to lead to it will be worthwhile.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

It no be for Papa Zito in particular, Troll mostly just feels frustration that the majority of players on site often seem set in their ways and no be willing to exploit slightly different game mechanics when them be about. Troll knows that the reluctance to do so no means that them be trying to hurt town and Troll has probably been a bit lucky with how Troll has tried to go about using the chosen mechanic (and others) but Troll at least got lucky and no will pass on this chance to emphasize a point. Troll be a math teacher after all. When Troll can demonstrate that something works and try to get others to use that model Troll will do so.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Well, Troll no had Sajin in mind when Troll made the statement, but yes, Sajin be doing what Troll be complaining about there. Troll really no be addressing Troll's rant here to anyone in particular, more to everyone who be reading the thread at this point that might listen.

Troll does hope that Sajin realizes that his stance on day one (either hohum or Sajin should be lynched despite the fact that Sajin knew Sajin was town and was neutral or something like it towards hohum) will usually be something other than the best position to take.

As Troll said earlier, Troll was also really confused by Sajin's kill. Troll has posited some reasons for it but it will be up to MiteyMouse to clear that up.

MiteyMouse cross-bussing day one was a great move on her part as that was one of the reasons that Troll suspected her as little as Troll did. Troll no knows who's plan it was for Cojin to bus MiteyMouse in the first place but it really did make her look like Scum in Troll's opinion. Especially when it came so soon after the other chosen game where Nuwen/Raivann did try to lynch Archon/Herodotus right from the start.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Also, one of Troll's favorite things about this game was the three post "random voting stage". We blew past that waste of time like it was no ones business. Troll was most pleased to see that.

Troll has Sajin to thank for that.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Troll's follow up post no was meant to support Troll's original rant. Troll answered a question and then said some other things.

It no was at all clear to Troll that Sajin no would self vote on day one from what him had said. And Troll will claim that as town who no particularly thinks that someone pushing for your lynch be scum it always be better to try to find some third party lynch than to demand one of the two of you be lynched. If the one pushing for you to be lynched be town then them have every reason to come to their senses as time goes on and stop pushing for you.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Well, in the end your games be your games to play but Troll will strongly recommend against trying to convince the town to vote for someone you think be as likely to be town as scum or yourself on day one no matter what else be going on. It should almost always be better to try to figure out who you actually think the scum be and make cases against them.

Of course, this game demonstrates how poor Troll be at determining who scum actually be so Troll supposes you should apply a generous number of grains of salt when listening to Troll.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

Up until around Post 444 you were doing fine holding the line that you be talking about now. It was right around there that you stopped saying that you thought that hohum was scum and that you instead had a neutral read on him but that you still thought either hohum or yourself should be the lynch for the day.

That spot and on be what Troll be concerned about in terms of future play.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If you don't think someone is scum but they are tunneling on you in general Troll thinks that it be better to look elsewhere rather than trying to get them lynched. Trying to make the town choose between two lynches you think have good chances of being town be bad because even if they were to lynch you and free up hohum in that situation, given that you know him can tunnel on town you have no reason to think that him no would do the same again. It be better not to waste mislynches if there be a fair chance to hit scum instead which be what we ended up doing. It never be good to assume that a position from someone else will never change. hohum himself, despite your read on him, seemed to be leaning towards Troll as scum rather than yourself when we lynched him.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

If you thought him was scum then your attack from yourself on him was fine. Again, it be when you said you had a neutral read on him that Troll started to take serious issue. If you no were questioning your previous read then you did a fine job of fooling Troll about what your current read was, good work. Troll can only go with what you say you believe when assessing your beliefs.

When you called for everyone else to agree with you or be scum you almost certainly went into the realm of unreasonable. Assuming that everyone else must have seen hohum as scum was pretty clearly a poor stance as people will form their own opinions. Your insistence that Troll must be holding back on Troll's vote for the one Troll thought was scum be an example of this. Troll never said that hohum was Troll's first choice for scum and Troll no thinks that Troll ever implied that Troll thought hohum was more likely scum than town during day one. Sajin seemed to take what Troll had said as evidence that Troll felt otherwise.

Don't get Troll wrong, hohum's stance no was a stellar example of good town play either but that no means that you should take up a similar counter stance or that you should assume that others share your views.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh