Newbie 767 - Game Over!

[delathi]

/confirm

[delathi]

Yeah, I figured that would draw suspicion immediately. And look at the signature too. Maybe that was a bad idea.

Now the big question is do I edit it out, does that make me look suspicious? If I don't edit it out, does that make me look suspicious? I have no idea, I think I'm screwed either way.

Oh well.

Vote : Phalan

Because he didn't /confirm in the thread, looks suspicious, already being sneaky.

[delathi]

On recount, Archaist didn't reply in the thread either.. that's 2 people being sneaky.

[delathi]

Mind games already? I smell a scum!

IGMEOY

...

Well, mind games against myself maybe.

[delathi]

It's cause I'm bold enough on my own.

[delathi]

Because you are obviously scum.

Unvote
Vote : Wolf

No, I can't really back that up.... yet.

[delathi]

Don't get your vowels in an uproar.

[delathi]

Just as an aside, I'm likely to be less active at nights and weekends. I'll try to keep up as best I can, but I won't be in front of a computer for most of the weekend.

[delathi]

So you're basically saying it's a random vote then correct?
[/quote]

Yeah, pretty much, although I do still have my eye on you an PhElan with all the sneaky PM confirming.

[delathi]

Wow.

Things go fast here and it takes a bit to catch up and alt+tab over to the wiki to look up every new acronym I see.

I'm assuming based on content that L-1 and L-2 are lynch level required minus # votes.

I don't know how much I'm learning so far on who's scum or not, but it's damn interesting to learn how the game is played. And what experienced people expect is how it is supposed to be played. So, for now, since it doesn't look likely that Wolf is actually gonna get strung up (and I have no reason to think he should) I'm not going to unvote yet and continue to watch the logic argument at the L-1 level.

And, I'm going to bed.

[delathi]

He partially claimed with "I'm a simple ol' townie."

I'd like a

full

claim of "vanilla townie" or "mafia roleblocker" or whatever.

I apologize in advance if this is really obvious, but what questions that have been directed at me, have I ignored?

As a question of information, why would anyone possibly claim anything other than "vanilla townie" at this point? Claiming scum gets you lynched and claiming power townie gets you night killed.

I don't understand the point of trying to force someone to claim now.

[delathi]

I don't understand the point of trying to force someone to claim now.

You were one of the people making him claim. Is there a reason you're voting him?

I left my vote there because I wanted to hear the reasons and debate.

Unvote : Wolf

[delathi]

In most circumstances, it's in the best interest of a town-aligned player to claim honestly, even if it outs themselves as a power role.

Trying to avoid nightkills isn't a good reason to lie about one's own role.

I am trying to think of any scenario where that could possibly be true.
How does identifying a power townie on day one, before they can do anything useful, possibly help the town?

It would be an almost guaranteed night kill for them and then deprive the town of it's most useful weapons.

How is this pro-town?

[delathi]

I left my vote there because I wanted to hear the reasons and debate.

So you vote someone in order to hear other's reasons and debates? Where was your reasons? Where were your debates? You don't leave a vote just to watch other people discuss it. If you vote someone you better back it up with reasons and force discussion to come from it yourself, not watch other people do it.

If you look back, my original vote for Wolf was random. Then more piled on top of it and then you and Porkens started going toe to toe. I figured I'd learn more about how the game is played by watching that conversation for a while than unvoting immediately and removing the cause of the argument. Especially since it didn't look, to me, like anyone was going to throw the final vote on Wolf.

[delathi]

... just becuase your vote was random doesn't justify leaving it on a wagon you dont agree with. And unvoting would not remove the cause of the discussion. What someone did doesn't disapear just becuase someone else unvotes.

True, however, then the conversation may have moved to other matters like, 'why did you switch your vote to put other-guy ate L-2?' And, I don't particularly think Wolf is scummy. My guess is that he's also fairly new like myself and still working on the conventions and etiquette of this game.

claiming on day 1
There are reasons why the mafia would leave, say, a doctor alive. Or a cop. It creates WIFOM and uncertainty in the town, which is what the scum wants. On another side of it; if someone claims vanilla day 1, and then comes out day 2 with a cop report, then the town has to deal with that lie, in some way.

Ok, I can see how it may be wise for the power townie to declare himself on day 1. It does probably sacrifice himself for a night kill, but the scum knows who the innocents are and are going to whack one of us for their night kill anyway, so it is a loss, but somewhat mitigated because there was going to be a loss either way and by claiming the power townie can prevent a guaranteed town lynch and guaranteed double loss. So, it does seem to be a pro-town move to claim when forced.

But I'm still fuzzy on how it is pro-town to force someone else to claim power townie without much to back up suspicions.

[delathi]

Vote : Ethan

[delathi]

delathi: Why did you try to vote Ethan? You have to use the

[ /b] codes without the space for your vote to count..

Because there has been nearly three days without Ethan posting and nearly half a day without anyone else posting.

A semi-random partially unsubstantiated vote was a hope to get talk going again again. Ethan may be lurking and hiding, he may have forgotten he was playing, he may have gotten bored, he may be scum. Whichever way, you popped up to question me and here we have conversation again.

And to make it more official -

Vote : Ethan

[delathi]

Man, I suck.

Preview is your friend.

Vote : Ethan

[delathi]

Finally, and this is the piece of evidence I believe is the strongest at the moment, delathi writes in Post: 111, "I figured I'd learn more about how the game is played by watching that conversation for a while than unvoting immediately and removing the cause of argument," fair enough so far but: "Especially since it didn't look, to me, like anyone was going to throw the final vote on Wolf." I'm a little confused here, delathi. How could you possibly know that?

I couldn't know it for certain, but based on the uproar over putting him at L-2 and then L-1, I was fairly confident that anyone dropping the hammer then would be a huge candidate for scum, no one had given any actual good evidence that Wolf was scum, and there was the wall of text going on between Porkins and Korlash that I was interested in.

How did it not look to you like anyone was going to throw the final vote?

I'm assuming the scum aren't stupid and that town is rational and isn't going to rush into a lynching without a good reason. Maybe that is naivety on my part

[delathi]

delathi: "I'm assuming the scum aren't stupid and that town is rational and isn't going to rush into a lynching without a good reason. Maybe that is naivety on my part"

Actually, this reminds me of a question I had. From some other threads I've read, it seems that lynching anybody is always preferable to lynching nobody on the first day. Even though it's random and likely that a Townie is lynched, the votes to lynch (and the responses to a certain extent) always reveal information. Is this accurate? Should we be looking to lynch someone today, even without a preponderance of evidence?

The objective is to lynch all the scum without losing all the townies. So it seems like even a completely random lynch is better than no lynch at this point because a total random lynch has a 2/9 chance of eliminating scum while no lynch has a 0/9 chance.

Lynching a townie is bad, but no lynch would guarantee we are in a worse position on day 2. Lynching at least gives us a chance, hopefully a better than 2/9 random chance because it won't be completely random.

[delathi]

I suppose my question was broader. In a newbie game, I imagine the scum will give away their positions (just out of inexperience if nothing more). But in non-newbie games, wouldn't scum be proficient enough to

not

giveaway their positions on the first day?

I would think that the scum hunting abilities of the town would scale on a relative level with the scum hiding abilities of the mafia.

[delathi]

I feel Delathi is not being as cautious as newbie townies should be.

So, for now, since it doesn't look likely that Wolf is actually gonna get strung up (and I have no reason to think he should)

Me, Phelan, and Archaist hadn’t posted since the L-1 vote. I don't feel like he should have guessed how we would react. I think newbie townies generally would unvote in that situation. I also feel there's been a general lack of scumhunting considering the amount of posts he has.

No, you hadn't posted since the L-1 vote. I had a reasonable confidence that if you had dropped the hammer, you would either:

a) be scum.
b) be a hero by getting lucky.

Not hammering in that situation makes it likely that one of the following are true:

a) Wolf is scum and you are too and avoided hammering your buddy.
b) Wolf isn't scum and you are and you didn't want to bring the attention of the hammer vote on yourself.
c) You acted wisely as a townie by not hammering someone we weren't sure about.


As for not being as cautious as newbie townies should be, that may well have been the case, I should be more cautious and I likely will be in the future. I have been reading other games and getting a better feel for how this works. My prior experience is primarily with live games where I tend to sit back and watch expressions and who refuses to look at who and and other physical tells.

[delathi]

Alright, here we go.

We'll see how this works out. I have gone back and looked over each post and made a snap judgment on each one in and of itself as to whether I believed the poster was hostile, friendly or questioning about it's subject. Then I put it all in a big excel spreadsheet and sorted it. Random (or seemingly random) votes are in there too but I'm looking for trends. Not so much trends as to who is scum or not directly, but more looking for who thinks they are on the same side as who, and have come to the following conclusions.

I understand that many votes have changed and many opinions have changed, that's perfectly fine, expected and good, but the focus here is what the poster was thinking when they posted.

Wolf : Hostile towards : MordyS, Porkins, Korlash, Delathi - Questioning towards : muzzz
IF Wolf is scum or town, it is likely that Platypus_Dude, Archaist or Phelan is also.

Ethan/MordyS : Hostile towards : Wolf, Phelan, Platypus, Delathi - Questioning towards : muzzz, Archaist, Porkins
IF MordyS is scum or town, it is likely that Korlash is also.

Phelan : Hostile towards : Platypus_Dude - Questioning towards : MordyS, muzzz
IF Phelan is scum or town, it is likely that Wolf, Archaist, Korlach, Delathi or Porkins is also.

Platypus_Dude : Hostile towards : muzzz, Delathi, MordyS - Questioning towards : Porkins, Korlash
IF Platypus_Dude is scum or town, it is likely that Wolf, Phelan or Archaist is also.

muzzz : Hostile towards : Wolf, Platypus_Dude, Porkins - Questioning towards : MordyS, Korlash
IF muzzz is scum or town, it is likely that Phelan, Delathi or Archaist is also.

Archaist : Hostile towards : MordyS, Porkins - Questioning towards : Delathi, Phelan
IF Archaist is scum or town, it is likely that Wolf, Platypus_Dude, muzzz or Korlash is also.

Korlash : Hostile towards : Platypus_Dude, muzzz, Porkins - Questioning towards : Archaist
IF Korlash is scum or town, it is likely that Wolf, MordyS, Delathi or Phelan is also.

Delathi : Hostile towards : MordyS, Phelan, Archaist, Porkins - Questioning towards : Platypus_dude
IF Delathi is scum or town, it is likely that Wolf, muzzz or Korlash is also.


Now breaking down the links to look at the ones that go both ways, not just one way as above.

Wolf - Platypus_Dude
Wolf - Phelan
MordyS - Korlash
Phelan - Korlach
Platypus_Dude - Archaist
muzzz - Delathi
muzzz - Archaist
Korlash - Delathi

These pairs are not currently the only suspects, but, in my mind these pairs seem to think that they are on the same side. Either they are convinced that they are dealing with a fellow townie, they are a scum pair, or there is some other reason that they have not spoken badly or voted against their pairing. I suspect that the scum pairing is likely one of these but am not completely convinced since this analysis goes against my gut #1 suspect.

[delathi]

Platypus_Dude : Hostile towards : muzzz, Delathi, MordyS - Questioning towards : Porkins, Korlash
IF Platypus_Dude is scum or town, it is likely that Wolf, Phelan or Archaist is also.

I've been hostile towards you?

Post #44 - It wasn't big and likely unfounded, but it was an indication that at the time you posted it, you were not protective or conveniently ignoring. It indicated suspicion and that you, at the time, did not feel that we were on the same side.

muzzz - Delathi

Korlash - Delathi

Why would you post these two?

Because these aren't necessarily scum buddies, they indicate that the pairs named SEEM to have not made any attacks against each other, indicating that they seem to trust each other. I don't say that the reasons for the seeming trust must be a scum buddy, it can just as easily be unwaranted trust or just people who haven't gotten around to jumping on certain people. It would also be rather disingenuous to leave myself out of the analysis.

Also, Porkens isn't on the list. He's not a confirmed townie, so why isn't he on your list?

Because I suck and didn't proofread well enough.

Porkins : Hostile towards : Wolf, Phelan, Platypus - Questioning towards : Korlash
IF Porkins is scum or town, it is likely that MordyS, muzzz, Archaist or Delathi is also.

He doesn't form a trust pair with anyone.

[delathi]

Since Korlash appears the most in this list (3 times) doesn't that mean he's your most likely suspect?[/quote]

No, not specifically, what it means is that Korlash has more allies. Since there are 2 scum and he has a significantly larger number of people that don't seem to suspect him, it lowers his likelyhood in my mind.

[delathi]

I see that your vote is still on Ethan/MordyS, so I'm assuming hes your gut #1 suspect? Or have i mistaken?

Correct

When MordyS replaced Ethan, there were two votes on him. Wolf and Me. He came out of the gate like gangbusters with an extremely well written post where he magnanimously removed Ethan's vote from Wolf. But in the same post, he votes for Platypus_Dude, someone others had already raised suspicion about, and still attacks Wolf by attempting to tie him to Platypus_Dude.

Wolf then unvotes.

MordyS then turns his attention to the other person with a vote still on him, Me, with an argument that basically boils down to; "I don't like your grammar." and "You made a correct assumption, how could that possibly happen?"

There is also the feeling he was less than truthful with his first sentance saying this was his first ever game of mafia. There seems to have been no learning curve, he leapt in with a full on good post, properly using esoteric game terms, acronyms and theory. In and of itself, this just raised an eyebrow, he's a smart guy most likely. But it made me wonder if he was telling the truth about his experience.

These things, combined with the earlier suspicions of Ethan, which looked scummy in a completely different way, lead me to him as my current #1.

[delathi]

MordyS then turns his attention to the other person with a vote still on him, Me, with an argument that basically boils down to; "I don't like your grammar." and "You made a correct assumption, how could that possibly happen?"

As far as I know I made neither of those arguments. If you'd like to include quotes indicating where I did, I'd be happy to hear you out, but this seems to simply be a lie. (Or, more charitably, a misunderstanding.)

In 158, your first argument against me was based on how I formed a question. My question was why would a power townie say anything other than vanilla townie when pressed this early. It was answered and I agreed that it was a good idea to do so to prevent a mis-lynch. Your attack there seemed to be more based on how I worded the question and less on what the question was asking

The second was in the same post, your strongest piece of evidence, was that I correctly assumed that no one would throw the hammer on someone who had absolutely no evidence against them at the time, and if they did do so, they were almost assuredly idiot scum.

There is also the feeling he was less than truthful with his first sentance

[sic]

saying this was his first ever game of mafia.

Why do you feel the specific need to point out misspellings? Is it an attempt to belittle and create a sense of intellectual and therefore moral superiority? You are using the quote function of the boards, I don't think anyone is going to assume that the misspelling was yours.

I'm only responding to this charge because it attempts to impugn my general honesty about something metagame related. The reason I seem informed is because I read a number of Mafia threads in addition to the theory wiki before jumping into a game. ie: I lurked and studied. I highly recommend this process for both Mafia & life.

& life? Nice little backhanded swipe at the personal life there.

Moreso, it seems that you're attacking me here as:
a) OMGUS (I suspected you, therefore you find that scummy)

Not specifically, I thought it scummy that 2 of your first 3 targets were the people who had votes on you and the other one was already under scrutiny by others. Had you done so and I was not one of them, I'd have still found it suspicious.

b) I "leapt in with a full on good post, properly using esoteric game terms, acronyms and theory."

As I said, this in and of itself was a very minor thing, but I figured it was worth a mention to see your reaction.

There's only one group who would try to shed suspicion on someone writing good posts, using game terms, acronyms and theory. That would be scum, as Town members always benefit from well considered arguments and ideas. Why exactly would you want a chilling effect among the Townies? That kind of argument can only dissuade other people from writing well-reasoned posts, and will culminate in the Town losing one of their advantages (reason + logic).

I disagree with your premise. People hunting scum are very likely to look at everything said, attempt to find inconsistencies and question them. I saw your competence and grasp of the game at odds with your claim of inexperience and I questioned it. You responded with another attack. Painting me as trying to prevent reasoned argument is going a bit far here. I'll accept that you studied hard and came in with both eyes open.

Furthermore, and I cannot resist this as a literature student, you write, "There is also the feeling he was less than truthful with his first sentance [sic]." What you should have written is "I also feel he was less than truthful..." What you wrote was in a passive voice, suggesting that other people feel as you do (There is the feeling -- among more than yourself?), which suggests a covert attempt to manufacture consent for something I haven't seen raised elsewhere. Ie: It's a fairly insidious and dishonest type of argument.

I'm not a Lit student. I'm a married homeowner with a kid and I work in the tech field. I often write in the passive voice, deal with it. Although I will note that this is another attempt to belittle and reduce my arguments through an ad hominem attack on my perceived writing abilities.

[delathi]

Not specifically, I thought it scummy that 2 of your first 3 targets were the people who had votes on you and the other one was already under scrutiny by others. Had you done so and I was not one of them, I'd have still found it suspicious.

Ethan/MordyS : Hostile towards : Wolf, Phelan, Platypus, Delathi - Questioning towards : muzzz, Archaist, Porkins

Now that's an internal contradiction.

I don't see the contradiction, although if you will specify it, I'll respond.

Delathi, I can't really tell if you're taking personal offense. But if you are, keep in mind that this is an internet forum. I.e., not an ideal means of communication. Chances are high that what you perceived is not what MordyS intended.

Nope, no personal offense, just combative discussion.

[delathi]

In one post you write that I've been hostile towards four people (Wolf, Phelan, Platypus and Delathi) and questioning towards three (Muzzz, Archaist, Porkins). That leaves one person in the game that, so far, I haven't been hostile or aggressive towards. So to write that I've only gone after three targets is a mischaracterization of your own analysis.

First three. Not only three.

[delathi]

korlash, my thinking is that a single pairing, only trusted by one person, is more likely to be a scum pair. More trust does not guarantee innocense, you could be a good liar, but it trends that way.

[delathi]

[quote="MordyS"]Muzzz's schemata inspired me to calculate one myself. It's the number of posts, the number of words (loosely, but consistently calculated - ie: includes signatures + quotes + webpage text, but does so for everyone), and the avg words per post # (the higher the #, obv, the more verbose the posts). If Mafia stand to gain from lying low, it will indicate those who have contributed the least. Moreso, at least for me, it will help weigh my votes -- both to encourage the quiet to come forward and because a non-contributing player is a better lynch target for the first day, it seems to me, than a highly contributing one.
[quote]

On one hand, you make a point that I can't fully discount. On the other, you specifically chose a device that paints you, by your interpretation, as the least scummy person out here. That's an interesting narrative.

If someone included chapter one of War and Peace in their signature file, would that completely disqualify them as potential scum according to your analysis here?

Yet still, your post may have been informative in another way.

Following your point, Wolf jumped up and made a bunch of posts to boost his post count, not huge on the WPP, but he might be feeling guilty.

[delathi]

Wolf : Hostile towards : MordyS, Porkins, Korlash, Delathi - Questioning towards : muzzz
IF Wolf is scum or town, it is likely that Platypus_Dude, Archaist or Phelan is also.

I'm surprised you found me hostile. My attacks on you were during the RVS, surely you could tell they were made out of jest?

Yes, they were most likely random although they may not have been. They were included among other seemingly random votes as well.

[delathi]

And...I can't not still be happy with my PD vote.

What's a PD vote?

My assumption there is PD = Platypus_Dude?

[delathi]

Oh, and to make it official:

Unvote, Vote: Platypus

I found this during re-reading, but the only prior vote I could find was on Platypus as well. Did I miss one?

I saw that too and figured he was unvoting his random vote and voting his unrandom vote in an attempt at cleverness. Or has bad book keeping skills and thought his random was for someone else.

[delathi]

I'm happy to see it, actually. If he were just attacking me, he could be accused of tunnel vision.

His vote is on you, and that is basically the extent of his 'attacking' recently.

Delathi: You're last two posts haven't shone any signs of where you stand on what's happening. Care to share?

I'm waiting on MordyS to respond to my prodding and trying to make up my mind whether to move my vote towards someone who I don't suspect as much who has a more likely chance of lynching or keep it there to avoid lynching someone I don't get as bad a feeling from.

[delathi]

Platypus_Dude : in post 47 you say that you didn't consider Ethan's vote on Wolf to L-2 to be a scumtell, but my random vote on him to L-3 evidently was? What was the reasoning behind that?

[delathi]

Where did I say your vote on him to L-3 was suspicious?

I was about to say by omission but in the copying and pasting of the following:

Neither muzzz nor delathi unvoted. Either one or both of them are scum, or they're ok with this bandwagon.

EBWOP: I've read games where townies put someone at L-2 on page 2, so I don't consider Ethan voting wolf to L-2 a scumtell.

I saw that I had misread. The first refers to muzzz and the second to Ethan. I initially read that as you jumping Ethan and Me, then removing suspicion from Ethan and not me. So, there's some consistency there even though you are still wrong.

[delathi]

The life of everyone on board depends upon just one thing: finding someone back there who can not only fly this plane, but who didn't have fish for dinner.

[delathi]

I am serious, and don't call me Shirley.

[delathi]

Archaist : What made Porkins look scummy to you? Who else has similar traits, and knowing what we know now, are those traits still scummy?

Mikey77 : Was your hammer based on anything you had actually seen, or just the fastest way to get to the Night?

[delathi]

It seems to me like we've got a lot of data about scum from last night's vote. Assuming both scum voted for Muzz (and that seems like a safe assumption to me), and since one of the voters is now dead, we now have a good array of choices for who may be scum. Let's start hearing some explanations from Mickey77, Archaist, Korlash and Platypus. I'm not hearing any explanations for their votes. And at least two of those people were already on my FOS list.

You seem to be assuming another narrative that paints you in the best possible light. If both scum were on the wagon, then you can't possibly be scum, right? If scum low word counts per post, then you can't possibly be scum, right?

What's next to obliquely assume your innocence? Scum has to have a name starting with a vowel, then you can't possibly be scum, right?

Although, I do tend to agree that it is extremely likely that at least one scum was on the wagon, I'm not going to be ignoring those who weren't.

[delathi]

MordyS : the argument isn't that you are 'too town' it is that you are ingrationatingly proclaiming your township and then arrogantly attacking anyone who dares to question it.

[delathi]

Forgive me, delathi, but that's

not

the argument you're making. When I wrote that we should be concentrating on those who lynched Muzz, I wasn't "ingratiatingly proclaiming [my] township." And when I casually mentioned my Townie affiliations on Day One, that wasn't ingratiatingly either. It was fairly by-the-way.

My real problem with this argument, though, is that we now have some actual evidence to analyze. Let's pretend that I do ingratiatingly proclaim my township and then arrogantly attack anyone who dares to question it. How exactly is this more suspicious than someone who lynches a Townie? I can see making this argument on Day One, when there is little else to go on. But why concentrate on it now? Maybe I've played this game arrogantly. I don't see what that has to do with my allegiance.

And that is why I haven't voted for you yet. I,m determining if you are a scummy mafia or just an arrogant townie

[delathi]

I still think Platypus is suspicious, both for that strange misquoting that eventually got Wolf (now mikey) to claim, and for defending with "a matter of honor".
The only thing I have against lynching him is a bit meta and could be WIFOM, so I'm not sure I should trust it.

What was the other thing? You may or may not want to trust it, but it might be handy to know it.

[delathi]

delathi, why didn't you vote for MordyS when you posted 375?

You were suspicious of him the previous day, enough to vote for him. Why didn't you do the same today, since he just added another suspicious thing to what you had before?

Because, as I said, I was starting to get a feeling that he is more of an arrogant ass than a scummy mafia. I'm still on the fence on it actually, his pulling back on a number of things and more conciliatory tone has both made me view him as more likely to have been misunderstood and also more likely to be trying to make nice and not be perceived as scum.

My best analogy is that at the start of the day, he had one good point and one bad point and I couldn't decide. Now he has two good points and two bad points.

[delathi]

This last argument creates WIFOM: If it makes sense that Platypus scum would nightkill Porkens, it could also make sense that scum would frame Platypus by nightkilling Porkens.
It's best if you don't base your arguments on nightkills, I think.
I think the only thing we can draw from them is that they killed an innocent, because we can see the flip.

This is false actually. You should make arguments on the nightkills. However you need to take everything in.

I agree, I think it is perfectly reasonable to speculate on nightkill targets. The scum needs to have a reason for picking, unless they are random nightkilling, which seems rather unproductive.

The problem is sussing out the reason for the target. To me there seems to be primarily three reasons to target for a nightkill.

1. Eliminate someone who is getting too close.
2. Frame someone by making it look like they did #1.
3. Kill a suspected power townie.

If anyone can add primary reasons why scum would target someone for a nightkill, please add them.

For Porkins, I don't think he was displaying any particular signs of power townie, so I think we can eliminate #3 from his reason for being targeted. Which leads to figuring out if it was #1 or #2 (or something I have missed and will likely be pointed out to me)

[delathi]

I think it is a valid argument.

I'm not sure it is correct in this situation though. It seems also likely, although maybe not equally so, that Mickey popped in and found himself over his head on the scum side and ditched. He and his replacement are still on the to be watched list, but you do make some sense.

[delathi]

Welcome to being a top suspect Cojin.

Maybe you can figure out what your predecessors were up to and explain it to us in a way that doesn't further implicate you?

[delathi]

MordyS, you seem to have a trend toward saying that scum/townies/newbies have strong tendencies to act consistently with their roles. But on the other hand, you have been very up front and not at all remaining under the radar as a now-claimed doctor.

Do you still hold the assumptions that "Scum would act like this" when you yourself are not acting like the stereotypical Doctor? And how can we be sure that you are? Most of what I have read indicates that the doctor claim is most likely used by scum, since it is pretty much impossible to prove unless you are successful.

And on the other hand, how do we prove that he isn't? There is a 50% chance that, if he is lying, there is no one to counter claim.

Still suspicious but not voting yet. Now you are up to 3 and 3.

[delathi]

Is it fair to make assumptions about roles in a game based on the players coming and going?

Ie: Pretend for an instant that I could make an assumption that Vanilla Town players are more likely to give up on a game and need a replacement than Mafia players. (Maybe Vanilla players would be more bored, while Mafia players would be more engaged.) I then looked at the 'bit' that first Wolf and then Mikey filled and abandoned. Would it be fair to conclude that the 'bit' is a Vanilla Mafia bit, or is it not in the spirit of the game to try and deduce role by meta-information?

(I'm not saying the argument I'm making above is a valid one -- I'm just trying to illustrate my question.)

After re-reading, I'm finding this extremely suspicious.
You assume that Vanilla Town is more likely to get bored and dump the game, yet you yourself are a replacement for someone you are now claiming was not a Vanilla Townie?

I'm just not buying it.

Vote : MordyS

[delathi]

And on the other hand, how do we prove that he isn't? There is a 50% chance that, if he is lying, there is no one to counter claim.

This is poorly thought out. The reason claims are powerful is not because it could be true I'm the doctor. It's because if I were lying, I'd be taking a 50% chance that there WAS a doctor who would contradict me. Ie: It's 50% there's a doctor in the game, not 50% that I'm being honest. Most mafia wouldn't roll that die. Presumably someone making a claim with a 50% chance of being called out actually has a much higher than 50% chance of telling the truth. (Am I explaining this articulately enough? I'm kinda stumbling trying to explain the logic here...)

The 50/50 chance is one that may be worth the risk if scum is about to be hammered. It would be foolish to make the claim unless there was already a big risk of being lynched, and at L-1, I would assume it worth the shot.

I also wasn't meaning to say that there was a 50% chance you are or are not the doctor due to your claim. I was saying that

if

you are lying scum, there is a 50% chance for a real doctor to exist as a counter claim and a 50% chance that no one can reasonably dispute your doctor claim.

[delathi]

I am not the Doctor.

[delathi]

I am still not certain about MordyS's claim.

However, assuming MordyS is telling the truth, Cojin moves to my #1 suspect based on three different player's individually and separately suspect actions.

Primarily, the thing keeping him from being the #1 suspect is the fact that my other #1 suspect is attacking him so vehemently.

A no lynch is bad also, and we are moving towards it rapidly.

Unvote
Vote : Cojin

[delathi]

Just chilling?

No defense?

[delathi]

Well, yes, I am assuming a likely hammer from Platypus_Dude, but, had he got here first to put you at L-1, and you reacted like this, I still would have voted.

[delathi]

EBWOP:

By the way, Platypus, if you were here rereading on the last few hours of Day 2, why didn't you post to say you were?

I really didn't expect him to be hammered. Korlash had seemed content with his Archaist vote, and I didn't think Archaist would pop in, nevermind vote.

You were happy with a no lynch?

[delathi]

I am still not certain about MordyS's claim.

However, assuming MordyS is telling the truth, Cojin moves to my #1 suspect based on three different player's individually and separately suspect actions.

Primarily, the thing keeping him from being the #1 suspect is the fact that my other #1 suspect is attacking him so vehemently.

A no lynch is bad also, and we are moving towards it rapidly.

Unvote
Vote : Cojin

What actions were those?

delathi, you missed this question...

No, I didn't miss it.
I'd already talked about it.
Wolf did his "I have my reasons suspicion"
Mikey had his fast hammer
Cojin had his own caveleir attitude.

Oh, by the way.

Vote : Archaist

[delathi]

That's four, which is a lynch, right?

That is the expectation.

[delathi]

The mod error did make for extra interesting stuff and I think there was a bit of overcorrection on it. We were given day talk access on day three and that allowed the coordinated hammer on archaist, without it, there was a decent chance khorlash or mordy would have pulled their vote before the other of us would have hammered.

[delathi]

o_O

I looked at the thread and was like, 'The only people who aren't voting Archaist are me, delathi, and Phelan. The game can't be over." So, I was completely surprised by the scum pair, and I was indeed busy/not paying attention for most of the game.

How did you two get your votes 1 minute apart from each other? And why did you choose Porkens?

Korlash: At the start of Day 3, I thought you were the cop because you didn't go after me from the get-go.

We got the votes one minute apart because Claus gave us daytalk ability during day 3 and we coordinated to be on and do the 2 part vote fast enough that MordyS and Khorlash wouldn't have time to see Archaist at L-1 and pull one of their votes off before the hammer.

Porkins was chosen because we thought he'd be hard to lynch and he was experienced and seemed to know what he was doing.

I'll see if there is any problem with posting a link to the secret scum thread.

[delathi]

Also, congratz to Phelan and Delathi, though I have to say: This is going to strengthen my inclination to attack early and often people who fly under the radar. If Archaist had been vocal sooner, I think we could have avoided a mislynch on him (and if everyone who took over Wolf's bit didn't do something suspicious, we could have done the same). I gotta reread the game now, knowing what I know. I suspect Phelan might turn some hints up, but Delathi - you really did not post much!

No, I didn't, mostly the newness of it really. Trying to figure out how to attack while knowing my attacks were invalid. Which is why I was coming up with the random crap analysis that I did and poking you with what I could find.