Open 127 (Lovers Nightless -- GAME OVER) before 761

[sekinj]

I am against the random lynching, no matter how good someone thinks it is strategically. I think it hurts the town in the long run.

[sekinj]

way to not give any opinion at all, zwet

[sekinj]

in this game. I think random lynching d1 puts us at day2 without any leads. it is too dangerous to chance getting a townie. if we random lynch a townie first, then on day 2 we would have to get ALL townies to agree on a lynch in order to suceed. i can't leave that up to the dice. i would rather make that error through reason and scumhunting. then at least we have something to go on if we are in that situation on d2.

[sekinj]

@zwet - are you RVSing, or do you really think I'm scum for having the same opinion regarding random lynching as someone else? Seems to me like there are only a few opinions to have on the subject...

[sekinj]

emp: I don't understand why you've singled out mith. as plum said it seems like any one of us could say, "I will hammer anyone at L-1", in order to show ourselves as townie. But that may be cutting off our nose to spite our face.

[sekinj]

I chose Mith as I thought it was better to do one person rather than everyone. I picked Mith at random.

but that doesn't prove anything. You could still just be saying that in order to prevent us putting mith at L-1, and are really lovers with him. It's too wifomy.

[sekinj]

stop what? stop saying that yoiu will hammer mith at l-1?

[sekinj]

*shrug* well, you've already said it. it's just that I don't think it makes a difference whether you've said it, it just matters whether or not we believe you. and I'm not sure that I do.

[sekinj]

it is not worth the risk. that would be even worse than rolling the dice on our first lynch.

[sekinj]

my point is, I don't think it clears you just because you say that. We could all say that for each other person. And it woudl be utterly foolish to put someone at L-1 just to see who wants to prove their townieness by hammering. If we put a townie at L-1 there would be 5 players willing to hammer, and if we put scum at L-1 there would be 4 players willing to hammer. Since only one player CAN hammer, we don't gain any more info than we normally would at lynch.

[sekinj]

So... we don't care if Empking hammers random people?

what game are you reading?

[sekinj]

@plum - you say ortolan is a jumping off point and then vote me? i don't understand your two presumes at the end of your post....

[sekinj]

well, I appreciate your vote for fertility... the rest seems rather riddling, but i will spend some time thinking of your thoughts...

[sekinj]

@plum - okay, I've thought about your thoughts. and I think you are just trying to get a vote in for no reason by hiding it behind something that sounds thoughtful, but is really nothing.

[sekinj]

@plum - this early I can believe you are doing it for discussion and reactions... we will see

[sekinj]

so, what do you think of the info generated?

[sekinj]

@mith - you are being clear. The problem is emp. he always plays like this. no matter how much you explain yourself he always fails to understand and answer accordingly. I don't know why or if it is intentional or accidental. It seemed very intentional the first time I played with him, but since he always does it no matter what game he is in *shrug*. that is his MO. You can find many players who will not play a game with emp because of it.

[sekinj]

Empking dont' you understand that it DOESN"T make it more likley?

[sekinj]

I'm not sure about pairings yet, but I am most suspicious of PLum so far. I think his ramblings are a lot of words that are supposed to look like reasoning, but really amount to nothing.

[sekinj]

almost half of his posts are walls of text in that game emp, with shorter ones in between. your resoning in nonsensical.

[sekinj]

PLUS - he has the same tone in that game as he has taken in this game. you've just proved yourself wrong emp.

[sekinj]

I hope some other people chime in because I don't think the mith/emp is going anywhere.

[sekinj]

but your plan does not accomplish your goal.

[sekinj]

but your plan does not accomplish your goal.

Out of 100, how likely do you think that me and Mith are scumbuddies.

BTW Town, I'd like to point out that Sekinj has been defending Mith all game.

50%

or more liek I've been dis-agreeing with you. and no one else has been taking either side, so it doesn't matter.

[sekinj]

that's not what you asked and that's not what I answered.

You asked out 100% if you and mith were scumbuddies. I answered that there is a 50% chance you are, which is the same percentage i personally have between everyone else.

[sekinj]

And I answered, mith

I'm not sure about pairings yet, but I am most suspicious of PLum so far. I think his ramblings are a lot of words that are supposed to look like reasoning, but really amount to nothing.

[sekinj]

I knew as soon as I threw a number everyone would mis read it.

zwet - you are grasping at straws. what do you even mean my 'statistics' are fabricated? it is my opinion.

all - this is how I think the percentages

at the beginning of the game everyone starts out with a 50% chance of being scum, then by their actions they work up or down from there. I'm not factoring in how many total players, I'm taking each player individually.

as far as emp's question goes of how likely emp and mith are to be scum buddies I stated 50%, because that is the default. i don't think their interaction so far has been conclusive. yeah, they are arguing and not understanding each other, but that could be a staged tactic...

Here is what I started with

pairing - likelihood
emp/mith - 50%
emp/orto - 50%
emp/plum - 50%
emp/sek - 0%
emp/zwet - 50%
mith/orto - 50%
mith/plum - 50%
mith/sek - 0%
mith/zwet - 50%
orto/plum - 50%
orto/sek - 0%
orto/zwet - 50%
plum/sek - 0%
plum/zwet - 50%
sek/zwet - 0%

Now, since plum and zwet are moving up in suspicion, any combination they are in (except with me since I know my alignment) is more likely.

current percentages:

pairing - likelihood
emp/mith - 50%
emp/orto - 50%
emp/plum - 60%
emp/sek - 0%
emp/zwet - 55%
mith/orto - 50%
mith/plum - 60%
mith/sek - 0%
mith/zwet - 55%
orto/plum - 50%
orto/sek - 0%
orto/zwet - 55%
plum/sek - 0%
plum/zwet - 60%
sek/zwet - 0%

[sekinj]

I'm only using percentages because that is the format emp asked in.

according to your format, yes, my list is:
[Emp/Plum, mith/Plum, Plum/zwet]
[Emp/zwet, mith/zwet, orto/zwet]
[Emp/mith, Emp/orto, mith/orto, orto/Plum]
[any pairing with me]

suspicion list:
Plum
zwet
emp,mith,orto
me


I choose plum to go next.

[sekinj]

Your statistics ARE fabricated. You can't claim that there's a fifty fifty chance of someone being scum unless it's a four player game.

you didn't read my explanation.

[sekinj]

well, whatever. take them however you want then, if I'm scummy for failing math, so be it.

[sekinj]

@plum- my read on emp is the same as you have explained your read on zwet. I have played games with him where he was doign the exact same thing he is doing now, which looks like intentionally misunderstanding, got lynched for it, and flipped town. therefore, emp's posting is a null tell to me. but I know many players who policy lynch him (and zwet) just because they come across so consistantly scummy. so... I have a hard time reading him...

[sekinj]

emp-by 'he' do you mean me?

[sekinj]

[sarcasm]I have scholarly sources to back them up. [/sarcasm] How can I 'fabricate' my own opinion?

[sekinj]

That doesn't answer the question, and is a change of tune from what you have been saying. Can you point to anything as evidence of me wanting to quickly mislynch? I'm not even voting anyone currently...

[sekinj]

I'm simply looking at each person's liklihood (or percentage) of being scum Individually. and then between pairs. I started that way since emp asked "out of 100". now, that apparently doesn't match up with other people's idea of what percentages should be, so that is fine, but it does not say anything about how prone I am to lynching someone.

[sekinj]

<---female

[sekinj]

Mith - as I explained, emp is just always like this, imo. Just because I can argue with him does mean that I think he is scum. I've seen him lynched as town too many times to suspect him for this. I will see how he continues to play before I am suspicious of him.

[sekinj]

If I trusted my gut and the usual scum tells, he would be my first lynch of every game I am in with him, followed closely by zwet...

[sekinj]

Emp - is it really more reasonable to think all of those other people are united in some conspiracy against you, or that you, an individual, are the one who is mistaken on how your playstyle comes across?

[sekinj]

then forget the wording. Is it more likely that 100 people are wrong or that you are wrong?

[sekinj]

you are missing the point, as always.

[sekinj]

pot...kettle...

[sekinj]

mith - what do you expect? you run this place

[sekinj]

I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: zwet

Plum had a resonable enough response to my suspicious, but zwet seems to be bent on intentionally misunderstanding/misrepresenting my explanations.

[sekinj]

zwet - I would appreciate you typing out your supposed mental debate.

[sekinj]

just one post convinced you to do a 180, emp?

[sekinj]

zwet - didn't you say

I

was the one fabricating numbers?

[sekinj]

@mith - just an oversight. all pairings with plum should have been at 60%

[sekinj]

Aside from 'number fabricating' is there any other evidence you have that points you to an emp/sek pairing?

[sekinj]

I've been examining the ort/plum exchange and looking at ort in isolation. Several things stand out.

At the beginning he seemed to try too hard to give emp the benefit of the doubt and understand his point of view, and then trying to 'help' mith understand emp. Although he says emp is hard to get a read on (which I agree with) look at the difference in the way he reacts to emp and the way I reacted to emp. This may be too fine a point, but thinking emp's behavior is a null tell (me) is different than excusing that behavior (ort).

Then it seems like he goes after mith in order to support emp, and then after plum as well, only after others had expressed suspicion of them.

"Ironically both mith and Plum's metas are apparently quite townie, and interestingly they've directed all their efforts towards Empking and zwet, who we know scum-tells are most unreliable with."
apparently ort suspects mith and plum for acting townie? and excuses emp and zwet because of their meta? seems backwards...

I think ort fabricated the connection between mith and plum.

most likely scum I believe is ort. I see lots of connection between him and emp, and slight less between him and zwet.




@Plum - you made a comment earlier that you hadn't seen a zwetscum game. Well, one just completed. It also has an example of ort town...

Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace

[sekinj]

unvote, vote: ort

[sekinj]

@emp - what do you think of ort?

[sekinj]

do you think he is your scum partner?

[sekinj]

Why is sekinj still alive?

I guess you havn't presented a good enough case against me. Want to try again?

[sekinj]

As you would put it, I'm just playing with him. Fishing for reactions. I think ort/emp is our scum team.

[sekinj]

Mith - think it's ort. What are your thoughts on him? I think the buddy is emp, but possibly zwet.

[sekinj]

I think ort fabricated the connection between mith and plum.

most likely scum I believe is ort. I see lots of connection between him and emp, and slight less between him and zwet.

Parroting Plum very blatantly and failing to critique her. Think we've got a femme fatale scum-team on us here guys.

No. My post was immediately after Plums and in fact I was writing it while she posted. I did not see hers until after I posted mine. therefore, (although I doubt you will beleive this, scum) we actually came to the same conclusion independantly.

[sekinj]

Sekinj, what, if anything, do you think your questions along the lines of 'X, do you think Y is your scumbuddy' will achieve?

What, if anything, you do think busing your scumbuddy will achieve in a Lovers setup?

You are not even trying to hide the fact that you are not reading from an objective prespective anymore. If you were, shouldn't this go into your evidence of why you are WRONG? not into your evidence of why plum is stupid?

[sekinj]

by the way - I will not be changing my vote away from ort. so you'll have to get emp on your side in order to lynch plum.

[sekinj]

they can? I actually didn't notice this lovers game had that

[sekinj]

...

Please hammer Plum, sekinj

I promise you can lynch me tomorrow if she flips town.

Really? if you are serious then I'm all in.

[sekinj]

in preparation for ort's response:

unvote

[sekinj]

Um, yes of course I'm serious.

Right now please, before I go to bed.

very well. I will be takign you up on that.

vote: plum

[sekinj]

vote: emp

for going after the easy target

[sekinj]

you know what... I have reformed my opinion. I think either emp and mith are the scum or emp and zwet are the scum.

Given the info ort pointed out (which was dumb on my part to miss) that the lovers can daytalk... I can REALLY see mith/emp coming up with the arguing gambit early on. Both of them seemed to jump of each other pretty quickly after they were done.

I would be willing to vote zwet or emp today. ort's sincerity has convinced me not to take him up on his promise (we are in lylo).

[sekinj]

unvote

although I think I am on the right track, therefore, scum wouldn't quicklynch themselves.

[sekinj]

I don't think scum can quick lynch that fast.

a lot of us on are right now, so you never know

[sekinj]

it's emp/mith

vote: Emp

[sekinj]

or MAYBE emp/ort, but I doubt it. Either way my vote is good.

[sekinj]

TO EITHER

ORT

OR

MITH

(whichever of you is NOT scum): Please hammer Emp

[sekinj]

ahhh, so IT IS you and emp, isn't it mith? Let me ask, how is emp as a lover? I've always wondered....

[sekinj]

i dont' think so. only you and I were voting him and it is 3 to lynch

[sekinj]

i'm not pressuring you to hammer. I know you won't. you are scum with emp, otherwise you would have hammered already. it is very clear emp is scum.

ort will hammer as soon as he returns.

[sekinj]

unvote

only unvoting to see ort's response to all this.

[sekinj]

because I don't want to take your word for it that ort was on earlier and didn't hammer

[sekinj]

what about ort/zwet... why is that ruled out? I still think it is emp, I just don't want to make a mistake.

[sekinj]

yeah, at lylo. give me a few points to convince me, zwet

[sekinj]

I ruled ort out earlier because of his reaction to lynching plum. but maybe it was a scam... like the emp/mith scam from the beginning of the game...

What do you think of your plum mistake mith?

[sekinj]

Do you enjoy confusing everyone with your shifting opinions on people?

tell me why you are not scum with ort.

[sekinj]

Emp's lack of a hammer goes against every impression I have of him as a player, and could have been an attempt by scumEmp to look innocent.

bull shit. there was NO reason to look innocent at that point.

[sekinj]

I'm more and more thinking ort/zwet....

[sekinj]

Emp must be scum from your perspective if you are innocent).

why? he didn't hammer plum, although he had plenty of opportunity.

[sekinj]

...eh? I was saying Emp's lack of hammer is a reason to suspect him. Do you think Emp's lack of hammer points to him being innocent, then? That... doesn't make any sense.

why? what's the flaw? I'm trying to think through this... why didn't he hammer her if he is scum?

[sekinj]

no, just double guessing myself. it is wifom... I still want to see what ort says... or some reasoning from emp on why he thoguht plum was town.

[sekinj]

I'm getting a definate Sekinj/Plum link but...

Zwet: Why did you vote plum?

look at this. if he was so sure of plum, why didn't he vote her?

[sekinj]

ummm... because the rules apply to everyone but me? .....maybe I was a little too quick to jump on you... but that shows you are not scum with either me or zwet...

[sekinj]

ARG! I just don't knwo!! why didn't he hammer plum if he was scum?

ort better return soon...

[sekinj]

possible pairings

ort/mith - OUT, because mith coudl have hammered emp and won
ort/zwet - possible
ort/emp - possible
zwet/mith - OUT, same as above
emp/mith - possible

[sekinj]

I'm getting a definate Sekinj/Plum link but...

Zwet: Why did you vote plum?

look at this. if he was so sure of plum, why didn't he vote her?

my point is, it woudl have been very easy for him to vote her. it would not have looked out of the ordinary. he had been voicing suspicous of her. if he was scum, why was he being cautious.

[sekinj]

complete pairings:

ort/mith - OUT, mith coudl have hammered emp and won

ort/zwet - unlikely, could have hammered emp and won (maybe didn't check thread)

ort/emp - possible

zwet/mith - OUT, mith coudl have hammered emp and won

emp/mith - possible

zwet/emp - doubtful, zwet is gunning pretty hard for emp

sek/mith - OUT, we could have hammered emp and won

sek/zwet - unlikely, I wouldn't be so indecisive now

sek/emp - ballsy

sek/ort - unlikely, could have hammered emp and won (maybe didn't check thread)

[sekinj]

AHHH-- i forgot!! Emp is voting me! let me try again

[sekinj]

OK - If Emp is really scum, then we are safe waiting for ort to check in.

[sekinj]

but if zwet/ort is scum... then I coudl be lynched as soon as ort returns...

[sekinj]

emp/ort
emp/mith
zwet/ort

I know I'm rambling at this point... I'd really like to hear from emp and ort

[sekinj]

I will have to go with the most likely. achems razor

vote: emp

[sekinj]

"sek/zwet - unlikely, I wouldn't be so indecisive now" - Explain?

[wifom] I'm just calling attention to myself at this point. I wouldn't be doign that as scum [/wifom]

[sekinj]

i can see why he woudl think so. but I am decided now. voting emp is my best guess and that is all I can give. if it is ort/zwet, then they got me.

[sekinj]

and what do you have to say about your promise?

[sekinj]

ok. now that everyone has weighed in... can the remaining townie please hammer emp? or at least state the reasons why they haven't already so we can discuss?

[sekinj]

UPDATED Complete pairings:

ort/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

ort/zwet - OUT, could have already hammered ME and won

ort/emp - possible

zwet/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

emp/mith - possible

zwet/emp - very doubtful, his vote has been on emp for a while, too risky if they were buddies

sek/mith - OUT, we could have hammered emp and won

sek/zwet - unlikely, zwet was after me too hard D1 for something very stupid (my fabricated opinion).

sek/emp - very doubtful, my vote has been on Emp while everyone weighed in, too risky if we were buddies

sek/ort - OUT, we could have hammered EMP and won

[sekinj]

UPDATED Complete pairings:

ort/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

ort/zwet - OUT, could have already hammered ME and won

ort/emp - possible

zwet/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

emp/mith - possible

zwet/emp - very doubtful, his vote has been on emp for a while, too risky if they were buddies

sek/mith - OUT, we could have hammered emp and won

sek/zwet - unlikely, zwet was after me too hard D1 for something very stupid (my fabricated opinion).

sek/emp - very doubtful, my vote has been on Emp while everyone weighed in, too risky if we were buddies

sek/ort - OUT, we could have hammered EMP and won

[sekinj]

Theory: ort/emp scum buddies

PROS (they are scum together)
- ortolan created links that were not there between plum and mith
- excused emp's early behavior, and even provided links where they were scum together so that we wouldn't think it was possible again in this game
- ort mentioned that it would be easy to convince emp to hammer plum, but still appealed to me for the hammer
- emp went after mith first off to show that he was pro-town

CONS (they are not scum together)
- emp didn't hammer plum
- ort seemed upset over being wrong about plum

[sekinj]

Theory: emp/mith scumbuddies

PROS (they are scum together)
- mith went along with ort's theorizes connections between himself and plum
- mith states WAY too often that he KNOWS he is town
- emp/mith arguement could have been coordinated or suggested in the daytalk
- emp did a 180 (or at least a 90) on mith because of just ONE post
- mith came to the idea that emp was town in not much less time

CONS (the are not scum together)
- emp didn't hammer plum
- emp/mith arguement (yes, I know this is a pro AND con)

[sekinj]

I would have expected him to hammer Plum if he were innocent.

I would have expected him to hammer plum if he were GUILTY....

[sekinj]

Theory: sek/zwet scum buddies

PRO (scum buddies)
- wifom

CON (not scum buddies)
- wifom

[sekinj]

Is anyone else playing this game except me and mith?!?!

[sekinj]

[sekinj]

I was in one of the lovers games where the townies (me included) were just at each others throats the whole time, and the scum just hard-core lurked... So the scum won by making a total of 5 posts... not very cool...

[sekinj]

i saw that ort was scum about the same time you posted your case on him, plum. but yeah, his reaction to lynching you threw me a bit. Never trust scum. Lesson learned.