Open 127 (Lovers Nightless -- GAME OVER) before 761

[mith]

~rolls eyes~ Yes, you were. You were essentially demanding that I prove my innocence by hammering. I'm not particularly interested in proving my innocence to you - either you really are innocent, in which case ortolan isn't going to hammer Empking either because they are scum together, or you are scum and already know I am innocent.

Your suggestion that I am scum because I haven't hammered yet flies in the face my meta - 9 years of me being cautious in endgames.

[post preview edit]Why are you unvoting? If you are innocent

Empking must be scum

.[/edit]

[-TinVision-]

First Vote Count of the Day

Sekinj (1) -- Empking
Empking (1) -- zwetschenwasser

Not voting (3) -- mith, ortolan, sekinj

With five alive, it is three to lynch.

[sekinj]

because I don't want to take your word for it that ort was on earlier and didn't hammer

[mith]

Interesting. And why are you worried about that? I would have no reason to lie about it unless I was scum with ort, in which case I would have already hammered Empking to win.

(He posted in Theme Park. Do a search.)

[zwetschenwasser]

Empking is BY FAR the best lynch choice. Almost all of our possible pairings involve Emp based on the relationships between him and other players.

[mith]

From an outside point of view, there are three possible pairings:

Emp/ortolan
Emp/mith
sek/zwet

I suppose 2 of 3 is almost all, but it's not meaningful in this case. From sek/zwet's point of view, if they are innocent, Emp must be scum - which explains their insistence about it (but doesn't fit with sek's most recent unvote - I would very much like an explanation for that). From Emp's point of view, if he's innocent, sek/zwet must be scum. But from my point of view, as an innocent, it's either Emp/ortolan or sek/zwet. Two possibilities for me to choose between, neither preferable over the other for any reason than "which pair is more likely based on posting behaviour", which is what I'm trying to figure out. (The same can be said of ortolan's point of view if he is innocent.)

[zwetschenwasser]

I see a Emp/sek pairing.

[sekinj]

what about ort/zwet... why is that ruled out? I still think it is emp, I just don't want to make a mistake.

[zwetschenwasser]

? Indecisiveness much?

[sekinj]

yeah, at lylo. give me a few points to convince me, zwet

[sekinj]

I ruled ort out earlier because of his reaction to lynching plum. but maybe it was a scam... like the emp/mith scam from the beginning of the game...

What do you think of your plum mistake mith?

[zwetschenwasser]

Do you enjoy confusing everyone with your shifting opinions on people?

[sekinj]

Do you enjoy confusing everyone with your shifting opinions on people?

tell me why you are not scum with ort.

[mith]

ort/zwet is (virtually) ruled out because ort and zwet were both on earlier. I suppose there is a possibility ort got on, posted elsewhere without checking this game, and got back off before zwet could message him about it, but it's not really worthwhile for me to consider that possibility at this point unless Emp unvotes - they would win as soon as they are both on again.

I find it quite inconsistent, and on the verge of hypocritical, that sekinj is now saying she is indecisive and asking for reasons after declaring certainty about an Emp/mith pairing on the basis that I am indecisive and looking at reasons.

I don't think Emp/sek is a possibility, though. It would take some serious guts on sek's part, as I was expressing a leaning toward Emp and she couldn't have been sure I (or ortolan) wouldn't hammer before she went back to indecisiveness. (I could see this as a ploy on zwet's part, trying to distance himself from his partner... but I suppose I could also see this as legitimate reaction to sek's unvote, even though I disagree with that reaction.)

[mith]

(Mild WIFOM, but there is no reason for me to keep ruling out scumpairs unless I am in fact innocent. As scum, I could have just kept silent about ort being on; it wouldn't have hurt me any relative to where I am now if someone else had spotted him, and it would have helped for there to be more possibilities.)

[zwetschenwasser]

AUGH! WIFOM!!

[mith]

Missed a question... though I'm not sure what helpful answer I can give here. I don't think anything of my Plum mistake other than that I made a mistake. It happens. I found her nonreaction to my vote a rather huge scumtell - I figured she would either try to persuade me directly, or start to suspect me, and she did neither.

I could see scum motivation in any of the other reactions to Plum: ortolan could have been taking advantage of the landscape when suggesting the mith/Plum pairing in the first place (I believe everyone else had expressed strong suspicion of one or both of us at that point); zwet put on a third at a point where both ortolan and I expressed strong conviction in our votes, and would have looked quite guilty in having second thoughts (virtually ensuring a Plum lynch); sek initially suggested there was no way she would switch from ortolan, than leapt at the chance to hammer when ortolan offered himself as the D2 lynch if he was wrong; Emp's lack of a hammer goes against every impression I have of him as a player, and could have been an attempt by scumEmp to look innocent.

[sekinj]

Emp's lack of a hammer goes against every impression I have of him as a player, and could have been an attempt by scumEmp to look innocent.

bull shit. there was NO reason to look innocent at that point.

[mith]

sek: If you are innocent, you should be attempting to persuade the innocent of me and ortolan (me, but you can't know that for sure no matter how convincing I am) that Emp/ortolan or Emp/mith is the pairing. Right now, it looks to me like you thought you could push one of us to hammer without thinking (whether "OH NOES they think it's Emp/mith, I better prove them wrong, HAMMAH" from me, or "mith isn't hammering, he must be scum with Emp, HAMMAH" from ort), and when that wasn't working you decided to play indecisive (even though at that point there was nothing to be indecisive about - Emp must be scum from your perspective if you are innocent).

zwet: Why do you think it's Emp/sek? Persuade me.

[sekinj]

I'm more and more thinking ort/zwet....

[mith]

...eh? I was saying Emp's lack of hammer is a reason to suspect him. Do you think Emp's lack of hammer points to him being innocent, then? That... doesn't make any sense.

[sekinj]

Emp must be scum from your perspective if you are innocent).

why? he didn't hammer plum, although he had plenty of opportunity.

[sekinj]

...eh? I was saying Emp's lack of hammer is a reason to suspect him. Do you think Emp's lack of hammer points to him being innocent, then? That... doesn't make any sense.

why? what's the flaw? I'm trying to think through this... why didn't he hammer her if he is scum?

[mith]

Why didn't he hammer her if he is town? Does it fit Empking's playstyle at all? You're basically defending him with WIFOM at this point, which doesn't make any sense given you were calling for blood on the last page.

Maybe zwet is onto something here. (If so, props to sek for some serious bravery in putting him at L-1.)

[sekinj]

no, just double guessing myself. it is wifom... I still want to see what ort says... or some reasoning from emp on why he thoguht plum was town.