Open 127 (Lovers Nightless -- GAME OVER) before 761

[sekinj]

Theory: ort/emp scum buddies

PROS (they are scum together)
- ortolan created links that were not there between plum and mith
- excused emp's early behavior, and even provided links where they were scum together so that we wouldn't think it was possible again in this game
- ort mentioned that it would be easy to convince emp to hammer plum, but still appealed to me for the hammer
- emp went after mith first off to show that he was pro-town

CONS (they are not scum together)
- emp didn't hammer plum
- ort seemed upset over being wrong about plum

[mith]

ortolan, convince me you are not scum.

sekinj, make a case that it's Empking/ortolan. [post preview edit]nevermind![/edit]

Reasons I think it's Empking/ortolan

1. I thought Empking was scum most of D1, for what remain valid reasons - his vote on me was poorly justified, his hammah-plan could have been an attempt to look like a productive townie.

2. I would have expected him to hammer Plum if he were innocent.

3. While I agreed with ortolan's attack on Plum, his attack suggesting a mith/Plum pair was flawed, and some of the arguments were... weird, requiring odd interpretations of what was said (Plum even accused him of taking something out of context; I'll have to go back and check on that).

4. I pointed out D1 that ortolan's suggestion that I was going after the "easy target" in Empking didn't fit with his claim that he wasn't going to give me a "free pass" - I don't disagree with the latter, but it's mildly hypocritical to attack me for not giving Empking a free pass... unless you're scum with Empking.

5. I said several times that I found Empking and/or ortolan to be the most likely scum if Plum was innocent, and I will be kicking myself if it's

both

of them and I hand them the win out of indecisiveness.

Reasons sek/zwet is still bugging me

1. I had them as my bottom pairing yesterday, but in retrospect the reasoning (which sek is now using in a WIFOMish manner) is not as convincing. sek was never in any particular danger of being lynched over his numbers, so zwet pushing him hard for it doesn't prove they aren't scum together.

2. As strong as zwet seemed to be on sek, he unvoted him fairly early on, had me as his top suspect for a while (without voting), and then put the third on Plum for reasons he still hasn't explained.

3. Both had the other second on the list during the "everyone post lists" portion of the day, which is ideal placement if scum can get away with it. sek later voted zwet, then ort, then hammered Plum because of ort's promise.

4. Most of pages 11 and 12.

[sekinj]

Theory: emp/mith scumbuddies

PROS (they are scum together)
- mith went along with ort's theorizes connections between himself and plum
- mith states WAY too often that he KNOWS he is town
- emp/mith arguement could have been coordinated or suggested in the daytalk
- emp did a 180 (or at least a 90) on mith because of just ONE post
- mith came to the idea that emp was town in not much less time

CONS (the are not scum together)
- emp didn't hammer plum
- emp/mith arguement (yes, I know this is a pro AND con)

[sekinj]

I would have expected him to hammer Plum if he were innocent.

I would have expected him to hammer plum if he were GUILTY....

[mith]

Empking/ortolan

6. sek making any argument for Empking's innocence at this point is pretty odd, and may point to genuine indecisiveness. Evidence of sek's innocence (which leaves only Empking/ortolan).

sek/zwet

5. WIFOM applies to the above.

[sekinj]

Theory: sek/zwet scum buddies

PRO (scum buddies)
- wifom

CON (not scum buddies)
- wifom

[sekinj]

Is anyone else playing this game except me and mith?!?!

[-TinVision-]

Second Vote Count of the Day

Empking (2) -- zwetschenwasser, sekinj
Sekinj (1) -- Empking

Not voting (2) -- mith, ortolan

With five alive, it is three to lynch.

[zwetschenwasser]

Is anyone else playing this game except me and mith?!?!

OH NO YOU DIDN'T

Anyway, ort, READ THE FREAKING PAGE. Every single most likely pairing involves Emp from a slew of good reasons. Chances are high that he's scum with one of these suspicious people.

[ortolan]

- ortolan created links that were not there between plum and mith

This is subjective and I believe the arguments were "ort is being hypocritical" which is not so much a problem with my arguments but a problem with me if it's the case.

Anyway, ort, READ THE FREAKING PAGE. Every single most likely pairing involves Emp from a slew of good reasons. Chances are high that he's scum with one of these suspicious people.

That might be how you'd play in a normal game with more days up your sleeve but that's just bad/lazy play for this game. If Empking has lots of connections to everyone, then if he is scum the evidence for all but one of these hypothesised connections is wrong anyhow which suggests they

all

might be incorrect.

I hope I am not digging Empking's hole deeper by continuing to defend him. There is of course a very good chance he's scum. However I couldn't live with giving zwet/sek a free ride through the endgame especially after my promise on Plum. That said I am all but sure mith is town at this point and if you genuinely believe Empking is scum then hammer (at least I won't have to accept responsibility then )

[mith]

Dammit ortolan, you're supposed to do something blatantly scummy to make my decision easy.

I'm going to take a shower and think about this. Then I will probably hammer.

[ortolan]

Where is Empking anyway?

[mith]

V/LA, apparently.

Sorry if this is the wrong decision, ortolan; you've played a pretty good game, but you just haven't convinced me here.

Vote: Empking

[ortolan]

damn.

good game, town played well. I'm not 100% sure how scummy I would have found Emp if I wasn't, well, scum with him but you got the right lynch anyhow.

[sekinj]

[mith]

Sweet.

There were a lot of little things that went into the final decision, but one of the more ironic ones was that the only "meta" I actually paid any attention to in this game was zwet's. It might be a coincidence, but on the basis of his play in the Rebels game I decided he probably wasn't scum here.

[mith]

(You two were hella scummy page 11, though.)

[ortolan]

I am curious- this seems like quite a difficult one for scum to win when you have good townies. Is that the usual experience? Have scum won previous games?

[sekinj]

I was in one of the lovers games where the townies (me included) were just at each others throats the whole time, and the scum just hard-core lurked... So the scum won by making a total of 5 posts... not very cool...

[zwetschenwasser]

OH YEAH BABY

[-TinVision-]

Final Vote Count of the Day

Empking (3)

--

zwetschenwasser, sekinj, mith

Sekinj (1) -- Empking

Not voting (1) -- ortolan

Empking has been lynched. He was a

Mafia Lover

. ortolan has committed suicide. He was a

Mafia Lover

. Town wins!

[zwetschenwasser]

WOOT

[Plum]

I may have gotten lynched but at least my top pairing (both times!) was correct. And we won. All in all, everything ended up being pretty much good.

First, I can hardly believe that Ort wasn't spotted as obvscum by anyone. My response to mith's suspicions was just to funnle all my energy into the scumhunt, where I clearly argued that he was misrepresenting me and reaching to make absolute nulltells part of his case against me and against a mith/Plum team

and

taking things completely out of context or giving things blatant scum spin.

And

refusing to comply with mith's plan to try to trap the scum by making everyone post pair suspicion lists. He never did, as I pointed out, and I'd hoped mith would note that and maybe even delay calling for my immediate lynch until after he addressed that. And the reaction to my flip wasn't that impressive, either . . . that deal was so illogical for a townie to make (well, not that logical for scum either) that it should've turned more heads.

Basically I was hoping, apparently against hope, that people, mith especially, would study my case against Ort and find that obvscum (Ort, if you'd flipped town I would've had to shove my hand through the internet and throttle you, because no Townie has any excuse for playing like you. Scum do - they're scum - so that's all good, and anyway I won, so . But your play did grab me by my shoulders and shout 'ORT IS SCUM' at the top of its lungs, so).

Y'all came together at the end and nailed 'em, so that's all good and well.

Note that both scum pushed meta and meta and meta when it came to determining scumminess.

[ortolan]

my hand was somewhat forced by the setup here, where you can't strongly bus your partner

I honestly couldn't be bothered trying to fabricate an entire suspicious pairings list and it would way too difficult for me to stay consistent with it and still have a chance of getting someone other than Empking lynched. So I just gambitted with the Plum-scum "promise".

Empking's gambit in "being happy to put mith at L-1" was very poorly applied- he shouldn't have used it in a game where several of the town players knew what they were doing and could see right through the lack of logic. I think that lost us the game. That said if mith had previous experience with Empking I think we would have had a better chance of winning, because I genuinely could see Empking doing that as town also.

[Plum]

I hear you, Ort. Town's EV is already ~%60, yeah? And with the Lover-Mafia aspect, is it tilted even more towards the Town? Talking with a former scummer friend, she never really saw how scum was supposed to win. That said - Town never has won Lovers Day 1, yeah?

I honestly couldn't be bothered trying to fabricate an entire suspicious pairings list and it would way too difficult for me to stay consistent with it and still have a chance of getting someone other than Empking lynched. So I just gambitted with the Plum-scum "promise".

It worked on Sekinj just fine; she hammered but didn't push for your lynch immediately, did she? I was gnashing my teeth in frustration there. And the fact that you refused to post a list. Mith should've been all over that, I thought, but you pulled that off, too.