Open 127 (Lovers Nightless -- GAME OVER) before 761

[sekinj]

I'm getting a definate Sekinj/Plum link but...

Zwet: Why did you vote plum?

look at this. if he was so sure of plum, why didn't he vote her?

[mith]

Fair enough. But you still haven't explained the double standard: Why is it ok for you to be indecisive and wait for ort, but obvscumtell when I do the same?

[mith]

(That was to 299.)

I'm not seeing your point. Are you saying he wasn't, in fact, sure of Plum? If so, he's lying scum (but then why are we having this conversation?).

[sekinj]

ummm... because the rules apply to everyone but me? .....maybe I was a little too quick to jump on you... but that shows you are not scum with either me or zwet...

[sekinj]

ARG! I just don't knwo!! why didn't he hammer plum if he was scum?

ort better return soon...

[sekinj]

possible pairings

ort/mith - OUT, because mith coudl have hammered emp and won
ort/zwet - possible
ort/emp - possible
zwet/mith - OUT, same as above
emp/mith - possible

[sekinj]

I'm getting a definate Sekinj/Plum link but...

Zwet: Why did you vote plum?

look at this. if he was so sure of plum, why didn't he vote her?

my point is, it woudl have been very easy for him to vote her. it would not have looked out of the ordinary. he had been voicing suspicous of her. if he was scum, why was he being cautious.

[mith]

I don't understand why you are continuing to have ort/zwet has a possibility. ort was on earlier. They could have quicklynched you and won. Even if they are scum and somehow missed that opportunity, they can lynch you at any time and there's not a thing either of us can do about it. I won't be voting for either of them, so there is no point in trying to convince me they might be scum.

It's possible you are innocent and just really indecisive - but again, that's a drastic change from earlier.

It's possible you are scum with zwet, and this is an attempt at diversion/distancing (much like zwet's "sek you just hammered, yay town" and Emp/sek suggestion).

It's possible you are scum with Emp, played an incredible gambit, and then moved on to trying to to get ort or zwet lynched after it hit you that you and Emp voting each other pretty much assured one of you will be lynched. But there's not much point in concering myself with this possibility either, as one of you will be lynched and we win.

So convince me that it's Emp/ortolan rather than you/zwet.

[sekinj]

complete pairings:

ort/mith - OUT, mith coudl have hammered emp and won

ort/zwet - unlikely, could have hammered emp and won (maybe didn't check thread)

ort/emp - possible

zwet/mith - OUT, mith coudl have hammered emp and won

emp/mith - possible

zwet/emp - doubtful, zwet is gunning pretty hard for emp

sek/mith - OUT, we could have hammered emp and won

sek/zwet - unlikely, I wouldn't be so indecisive now

sek/emp - ballsy

sek/ort - unlikely, could have hammered emp and won (maybe didn't check thread)

[sekinj]

AHHH-- i forgot!! Emp is voting me! let me try again

[sekinj]

OK - If Emp is really scum, then we are safe waiting for ort to check in.

[sekinj]

but if zwet/ort is scum... then I coudl be lynched as soon as ort returns...

[sekinj]

emp/ort
emp/mith
zwet/ort

I know I'm rambling at this point... I'd really like to hear from emp and ort

[mith]

"sek/zwet - unlikely, I wouldn't be so indecisive now" - Explain?

[sekinj]

I will have to go with the most likely. achems razor

vote: emp

[sekinj]

"sek/zwet - unlikely, I wouldn't be so indecisive now" - Explain?

[wifom] I'm just calling attention to myself at this point. I wouldn't be doign that as scum [/wifom]

[mith]

You were calling attention to yourself when you were being overly decisive, too; I think it's quite possible you were trying to look town through indecision - scum are the only ones who know for sure what's going on.

What do you think of zwet's Emp/sek pairing (beyond repeating what I said about it)?

[sekinj]

i can see why he woudl think so. but I am decided now. voting emp is my best guess and that is all I can give. if it is ort/zwet, then they got me.

[mith]

Bleh, I was hoping ortolan would be on by now. Going to bed.

[ortolan]

Sigh.

Oh well, at least I can point out that mith/zwet is now off the table. We are both on, and could lynch sek if we were scum together.

I'm not entirely convinced by this. There's still a decent element of risk in going for a hammer, and it assumes scum are very active in their day-talk, are actually looking at this game at the time, and don't think it's too risky to try to synchronise their votes before the relevant townie unvotes the other townie.

But assuming competent scum it does increase the likelihood of these being our viable scumpairs.

Empking is BY FAR the best lynch choice. Almost all of our possible pairings involve Emp based on the relationships between him and other players.

This is pretty scummy. He

cannot

be scum with more than one person. Thus if he has links to multiple people then at least some are definitely invalid, so indeed they all might be.

I don't think Emp/sek is a possibility, though. It would take some serious guts on sek's part, as I was expressing a leaning toward Emp and she couldn't have been sure I (or ortolan) wouldn't hammer before she went back to indecisiveness.

I agree.

(Mild WIFOM, but there is no reason for me to keep ruling out scumpairs unless I am in fact innocent. As scum, I could have just kept silent about ort being on; it wouldn't have hurt me any relative to where I am now if someone else had spotted him, and it would have helped for there to be more possibilities.)

Strong* WIFOM.

why? what's the flaw? I'm trying to think through this... why didn't he hammer her if he is scum?

Well, because he is usually aggressive and unself-consciously scummy when town but was peculiarly restrained about hammering Plum.

I don't understand why you are continuing to have ort/zwet has a possibility. ort was on earlier. They could have quicklynched you and won. Even if they are scum and somehow missed that opportunity, they can lynch you at any time and there's not a thing either of us can do about it. I won't be voting for either of them, so there is no point in trying to convince me they might be scum.

This now is obviously true though. With me/zwet as scum we would have co-ordinated a lynch on Empking or sek in the huge amount of time we've had to. Ergo we are not scum together. As mith also said, the same goes for everyone else. One of the scum is pretty much guaranteed to be present in Empking or sekinj (unless they are both scum...I'm not thinking that's likely at this stage though).

[sekinj]

and what do you have to say about your promise?

[ortolan]

going through with it would be even more retarded than having made it in the first place

[sekinj]

ok. now that everyone has weighed in... can the remaining townie please hammer emp? or at least state the reasons why they haven't already so we can discuss?

[sekinj]

UPDATED Complete pairings:

ort/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

ort/zwet - OUT, could have already hammered ME and won

ort/emp - possible

zwet/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

emp/mith - possible

zwet/emp - very doubtful, his vote has been on emp for a while, too risky if they were buddies

sek/mith - OUT, we could have hammered emp and won

sek/zwet - unlikely, zwet was after me too hard D1 for something very stupid (my fabricated opinion).

sek/emp - very doubtful, my vote has been on Emp while everyone weighed in, too risky if we were buddies

sek/ort - OUT, we could have hammered EMP and won

[sekinj]

UPDATED Complete pairings:

ort/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

ort/zwet - OUT, could have already hammered ME and won

ort/emp - possible

zwet/mith - OUT, mith could have hammered emp and won

emp/mith - possible

zwet/emp - very doubtful, his vote has been on emp for a while, too risky if they were buddies

sek/mith - OUT, we could have hammered emp and won

sek/zwet - unlikely, zwet was after me too hard D1 for something very stupid (my fabricated opinion).

sek/emp - very doubtful, my vote has been on Emp while everyone weighed in, too risky if we were buddies

sek/ort - OUT, we could have hammered EMP and won