Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[JereIC]

/Confirm

[JereIC]

Vote: Fishythefish

because he just seems fishy.

[JereIC]

Obviously, the recent attacks on me have been serious and grave, and deserve a full and thorough response. There are a few points I would like to make absolutely clear.
1. As Amished suggests, there isn't nearly enough of me to go round. Penguins eat fish whole, and there is no way 11 penguins can possibly share 1 fish.

So anyone wanting to kill a fish wants it all for themselves, hence is scum

2. It is well known that fish, like other animals, should be killed when in a state of happiness, so that their muscles are relaxed and the meat is more tender. It would be far more sensible to let me die peacefully.

So anyone wanting to lynch a fish is antitown

3. Penguins only eat live fish.

So anyone wanting to kill a fish is certainly not a penguin, hence is scum

4. Actually, the fish in the picture is a robot fish.

In light of this evidence, I fully expect those voting for me to:
1) Unvote me
2) Admit that they are scum
3) Vote for themselves
Anything else is merely prolonging the inevitable.

Less arguing, more getting in mah belleh. OM NOM NOM NOM

[JereIC]

It looks like you wrote down swear words in my name, why do you hate me Nuwen?

Through some terrible incontinuity in the fabric of space-time, your name grows infinitely longer around the hour of three AM.

But isn't "Debonair fuck long names" just as long as "Debonair Danny DiPietro"?

I'm not sure if Fishy is mocking me with meta or not.

[JereIC]

I would like to make it completely clear to ZEEnon and JereIC that my last post was not intended to be taken seriously. I had not thought there would be confusion on this point.

It's cool man, I figured you were kidding around and should have made that clearer in my post.

[JereIC]

Mizz, you can quote a single post by hitting the "Quote" button in the upper right-hand corner of the post. You can also quote posts by writing this:

Code: Select all

[quote="<Person's Name>"]
<Thing person wrote.>
[/quote]

Replacing <Person's Name> and <Thing person wrote.> with their name and what their wrote. Keep the quotation marks next to <Person's Name>, though. Be sure to preview your post before posting it (there should be a little "Preview" button near the "Submit" button), as quote tags are really easy to mess up.

Drake, I agree with your read on ZEEnon, but I'm not sure why you find DDD scummy when Nuwen is using basically the same arguments. Could you point out what exactly made DDD's post scummy and Nuwen's posts not? Is the fact that he's jumping votes while Nuwen is just backing up her original vote with a serious argument?

No, please don't kill me, Mr. Ghostface, I wanna be in the sequel!

ZEEnon - 4 (Nuwen, Mizz.Mafia, Light-kun, Debonair Danny DiPietro)
Nuwen - 2 (Amished, ZEEnon)
Fishythefish - 2 (JereIC, pacman281292)
DraketheFake - 1 (na85)
na85 - 1 (Fishythefish)
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 2 (DraketheFake, freeko)

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

-Mod

[JereIC]

Don’t have enough time to post a lot, but I wanted to post a few things (if nothing else to keep Nuwen happy ). Bigger post probably coming this weekend.

Amished seems to be playing very safe. He’s posting a lot and commenting on other people’s posts, but he doesn’t seem to be forming a case or pressing anyone for answers.

DDD’s explanation of his vote for ZEEnon feels like he’s hedging his bets. In some places he calls ZEE crazy suspicious, but in other posts he undercuts his own argument by saying ZEE’s play is usually a town-tell (speaking of which, is there such a thing as town-tells?). He’s also built an argument about why lynching ZEE could be good even if he is a townie, which I feel is anticipating ZEE turning town. Also, posts 125 and 133, where he asks people to chime in on Freeko’s post, feel like he’s trying to start a bandwagon without being the first vote on it.

I have to agree with na85 that Light-kun’s post was picking a troll. You can argue that na85 is active lurking by just agreeing with other people, but Light-kun’s post was just picking a fight without reason.

Freeko is absolutely making a mountain out of a molehill. I’m not sure if that’s suspicious or not though.

Mizz, if you’re short on time, you should try skimming the posts during your busy days and do more thorough readings when you’ve got more free time. When you skim, take note of what seems suspicious, and why, and then you can make a quick post about it. When you do the more thorough readings, try to think through what everyone is saying, see if it’s logical, if it’s consistent with what they’ve said previously, and if it’s something you think a townie would say. If everything works right, you find somebody who’s lying out of his ass and vote for him (just like politics!). As for people being mean, you gotta remember this game is basically where we pretend to gang up and kill each other. Tensions are going to rise and feelings will be hurt (especially for the people who turn out to be mafia).

[JereIC]

WAAAA ME DOESN'T LIKE WALLS!! WAAAA!!

Seriously, DDD, na85, Drake and others, can you stop that?

WTF?

na85, I see your point, but I just don't get the same read of feigned naiveté. She seems to be picking up on stuff (how to use the bold and quote tags, for example), so I think it's more likely that she's actually new at the game and just needed some tips on how to play.

[JereIC]

DDD seems to be constantly reversing his position and twisting his own words in response to anyone accusing him of saying something odd. In post 177,

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this; who needs to be analyzed depends on the context of the situation. However, I think making a blanket statement like "4th or 5th people in a vote string are most likely to be scum" and then using it in actual game analysis is a terrible idea. It tells scum how to act to avoid suspicion, don't be the 4th or 5th vote.

However, DDD made very similar blanket statements in post 109 and in the next paragraph of 177, where he says the most suspicion should be on people first and last on the bandwagon. He also says we should look to people joining the wagon with sub-standard logic, but that’s just common sense.

I agree with Fishythefish’s post 185 and the second half of DtF’s post 189.

In post 193, DDD’s not really clarifying or defending what he’s doing, though, he seems to be subtly changing and adding to his original arguments to try to make them less suspect. For example, in post 103 he says hammers on a bandwagon are most suspect, but in 177 he has narrowed the group of suspect wagoners to only dubious hammers, while expanding to votes that were initially random and those joining the wagon with sub-standard logic. Also, he’s gone from saying that post 109 was “useless and distracting” in post 127 to saying it was actually helpful in post 177.

Having to twist what he wrote previously is scummy. It indicates that DDD realizes that he made statements that were scummy by themselves and is trying to rewrite them to be less scummy. It also indicates he's more concerned about getting out of suspicion than in building an argument; he ends up undercutting what he has said already to appease his accusers. For this, and the reasons I noted in post 151,

Unvote; Vote: Debonair Danny DiPietro

[JereIC]

Also, he’s gone from saying that post 109 was “useless and distracting” in post 127 to saying it was actually helpful in post 177.

You're wrong, 127 says 109 was “useless and distracting”. 177 refers to 127 as the helpful post. I guess you could suggest 127 requires 109, but 127 could've happened without it if I hadn't risen to Drake's joke, but later raised the issue of him trying to get a rise from me.

Sorry about that, I got the posts confused. When I've got more time I'll respond to your other points.

Also, Nuwen, you unvoted this post, but (and this is assuming you unvoted DDD, if not, then ignore this) you only provided a reason for defensiveness not being scummy yet failed to refute JereIC's other points. Any reason for this? (Again, I am too lazy too look up who you were voting, and this only applies if you were voting DDD.)

She was voting for Mizz.mafia.

[JereIC]

I don't see a similar blanket statement in 109. I'd like to know what turn of phrase you're using as your claim here.

Yeesh, another screw-up. I meant post 103, where you say we should look at people hammering a townie.

Of course, I'm most concerned about getting out of suspicion. I have

one

piece of confirmed information. I win with the town. If I focus on getting someone else lynched there's a 20-35% "random" chance we lynch correctly and a 65-80% random chance we lynch a fellow pro-town player and that's assuming I somehow move the attention off me while spending more time examining other people. If I fail in moving suspicion off me and I'm lynched then there's a 100% chance a pro-town player has been lynched. It's simple math that I should dedicate the bulk of my time to not being lynched and yes, I have done some hunting in my defenses.

My main concern wasn't that you did it or why, it was the fact that you were not explicit about it. Instead of saying "I've thought about my post X, and on reflection I don't think it was correct," you seemed to just be saying whatever your accusers wanted to hear, regardless of what you actually believed and said in the past. I can understand making misstatements or changing your views of scumtells, but because of the way you acted it seemed like you weren't really changing your views, you were just saying whatever it took to slip out of suspicion.

I'm going to review freeko's posts, but you, HowardRoark, and Fishythedelishy have made some good points about him.

[JereIC]

Post 225?

HTML doesn't work. Just preview

everything

you write and you catch 90% of this stuff.

Freeko, your posts have lost all touch with reality, and I'm leaning towards voting you now. DDD has responded very coolly and rationally under pressure, and while it may be an act, it looks a lot better in comparison to you totally freaking the hell out crazy-style for no apparent reason.[/code][/mech]

[JereIC]

Perhaps I missed something, but this made no sense to me.

As Fishy pointed out, it does make sense in context of my post 77.

Post 100: JereIC is attempting to deflect DraketheFake's attention from ZEEnon to Nuwen.

Not much, but I feel there is something about JereIC that I don't like and want to discover it.

I guess I can see that effect, but it wasn't my intent. It seemed like he made a strong argument against ZEEnon and a weak one against DDD (as I thought it could be applied against Nuwen as well, who he hadn't mentioned), but then voted for DDD, and I was trying to figure out why.

Nuwen, post #290 is a policy lynch argument, right? I only ask because you were pretty explicit about your vote for Mizz.Mafia being a policy lynch vote, whereas you haven't used the same term with the case against freeko.

[JereIC]

I disagree that a stronger case was made against ZEEnon than against Debonair Danny DiPietro, but that's a matter of opinion.

More interesting to me is the fact that you feel Nuwen was scum-hop voting. (The main reason presented in DraketheFake's case against Debonair Danny DiPietro.) His vote had been on ZEEnon since the RVS.

Actually, you're right in your first point, DtF wasn't building any sort of case against ZEEnon, he was saying ZEE was not particularly suspect. And, I agreed with him in post 100. I have no idea what the hell I'm talking about in 293.

Your second point is just plain wrong. In post 100 I noted that Nuwen hadn't changed her vote, so it's demonstrably false that I thought "Nuwen was scum-hop voting." In fact, I explicitly asked DtF if it was DDD's hopping that made his arguments more suspect. DtF replied, in post 106, that he wasn't voting for Nuwen because she presented her arguments which made her less suspect, so your claim that his main reason for voting DDD in post 97 was the hop is questionable.

[JereIC]

How does any of that contradict what I wrote? My point in 296 was that DtF had gone after DDD for a poor argument, not for jumping votes, and that Nuwen was not as suspect because she had better arguments, not because she was sticking with her original vote. Your post just shows that he spent most of his time on DDD's poor logic, and only briefly mentioned the fact that DDD had switched votes. I asked him directly in post 100,

I'm not sure why you find DDD scummy when Nuwen is using basically the same arguments. Could you point out what exactly made DDD's post scummy and Nuwen's posts not?

Is the fact that he's jumping votes while Nuwen is just backing up her original vote with a serious argument?

In post 106, he replied,

Because I believe Nuwen is making them is good faith. He directs questions at ZEEnon about his behavior and asks for clarification. DDD's post smacks of trying to strike while the iron's hot, and his shift from "This is suspicious" to "Nevermind this is really a pressure vote" is bullshit.

Now, maybe you saw something I missed, or maybe you can show that DtF was implicitly using the vote-hop as further evidence of DDD's scumminess. If so, I'd love to see it. If not, then I'd like to know why it would have been important if I was wrong about the hop being a major part of DtF's case against DDD.

[JereIC]

Well, for the sake of argument, let's say you're right. Why would that be important to your case against me? How does me getting that wrong look scummy?

Nitwit! Blubber! Oddment! Tweak!

Fishythefish - 1 (pacman281292)
Debonair Danny DiPietro - 1 (freeko)
Light-kun - 1 (na85)
freeko - 5 (Debonair Danny DiPietro, HowardRoark, Light-kun, Fishythefish, Nuwen)
pacman281292 - 2 (ZEEnon, Amished)

Not Voting - 2 (DraketheFake, JereIC)

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

freeko is at L-2

.

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 304)

[JereIC]

I'll

Unvote

, can't really back up the case against DDD anymore.

Not sure how I feel about freeko. On the one hand, I think he's more likely to be anti-social than anti-town, and I think he's a convenient target. On the other hand, Nuwen is right, his arguments are terrible and somewhat scummy, and I think he's the scummiest player in the game at the moment. If he can't post a rational self-defense soon I'll probably vote him.

[JereIC]

vote freeko

Bite me.

/facepalm

[JereIC]

God bless this mod and his soft orange belly.

Self-hammering strikes me as exactly what an emo player, townie or scum, would do. Then claiming that he meant to not unvote all along feels scummy to me.

Howard's vote puts you at L-1. How about a claim now, buddy?

[JereIC]

Screw it

Vote: freeko

[JereIC]

Welcome Jazzmyn and hohum!

HowardRoark, I asked you a question in posts 298 and 300, would you mind answering it now?

[JereIC]

I don't want to distract from DtF's points about Light, but this is bugging me:

@DraketheFake: I believe that your main point was his vote hop. JereIC believes that your case was based on a poor argument from him. Perhaps you can clarify.

My question isn't about DtF's rationale, it's about why you were integrating it into your case against me. How do you get from "JereIC was wrong about DtF's early post" to "JereIC is scum"?

[JereIC]

HowardRoark's responses to my questions aren't totally satisfactory, but I'm going to let it drop for now.

I can't make an in-depth monster post, but I've noticed a few weird things with Light-kun.

• Voted for both Zeenon and Freeko, both of whom were easy picks
  
• On March 2nd, he said DDD was engaging in scummy play, but on 3/4 said he didn't get a scum read from DDD
  
• His comment that he was "Obvious Kira" in his post giving a percentage on everyone was odd - sometimes scum or SK will make jokes about this, it's not common or a terrific scumtell, but it happens
  
• Responding to DtF's case by saying it was a misguided initiative looked like he was trying to placate DtF, and doesn't show the suspicion I normally associate with a townie falsely accused

And now I too schlep off to reread the thread more closely.

[JereIC]

1. Danny did look scummy. Hell, everyone looks scummy to me. Though, I need to check my percents to see who's less so. Hell, seeing Amished flip, I probably need to reset them.

Right, but you seemed to change your mind about him without much of an explanation. To be fair, I was just reading through your posts and didn't read them in context, so there might have been something that somebody else said that would have obviously changed your mind.

2. Kira=Light yagami. I think you should know I play the game, I'm not serious.

Yeah yeah, I've seen the anime, and I'm assuming your PM wasn't for the role "God of the New World... of Penguins." (Besides which, no one's died of a heart attack, yet.) What I am saying is that sometimes scum or an SK will joke about being anti-town, and it's more common for them to make those jokes than townies in my experience.

3. It was good initiative, but its misguided. Do explain to me why I, town-aligned, should worry about an attack against me? The attack is good initiative to get conversation started, but I have nothing to hide, so I don't fear it. Obviously, since I am town-aligned (and it may only be to me), the attempt IS misguided.

What's odd is how certain you seem to be that he's not scum trying to manufacture a case against you. How do you know he's pro-town, and therefore misguided, and not scum, and therefore malicious?

[JereIC]

Maybe this was obvious to everyone else, but this just occured to me:

Amished - mangled bloody death - predator

DDD - red circle on chest - gunshot - hunter

[JereIC]

Light's 372 is pure BS.

<Snip>

Honestly, this post made your percentage go up.

This is badgering, trying to make somebody who has made a good point doubt their own arguments because you claim it's crap and scummy. (Sort of like this.)

Looking over Amished:
He never mentioned me except in regards of my percents. So, up until my percents were posted, I was wholly ignored. I elevated (read "lied") to see his reaction. He was concerned about them which kept his percent at the heightened level with zero threat. (eg, like Fish, I would watch him without really pursuing him until he screwed up.)

As Fishy said, intentional provocation is a convenient defense for scum. Additionally, your story doesn't make sense because Nuwen and freeko hadn't said anything about you until you posted your percentages, but their percentages are fairly low. Finally, you ignore the fact that

Amished was a townie

, perhaps indicating that reacting to your percentages isn't a great scumtell?

Next:

Vote hohum

After Fish's last post and Jazz giving her view on the freakout and Zeenon's play, I can almost see the faint outline of Fish+Zeenon, but far more likely: Zeenon=mafia.

Also, when I say arbitrary, I mean arbitrary. It isn't random in the sense that their exists a reason that is personal or the vote is seemingly random. I planned on demonstrating my case alter and I typed arbitrary to see how people would react. Didn't get much from it though. Oh well.

Another paragraph of badgering and "intentional provocation" claim, with a touch of trying to shift suspicion. I'm just not buying it.

Vote: Light-kun

[JereIC]

Unvote

I can live with L-K's vig claim, especially because there's good ways to test it. Nuwen's plan makes the most sense given what we know, although we should reserve the option to not vig tonight (I'd bet there will be two good suspects by the end of the day and our optimal play will be to kill both, but having the option is always good).

[JereIC]

Even though it implicates me, Nuwen's analysis makes a lot of sense. The three of us were also the ones who voted for LK at the beginning of the day.

Speaking of whom, LK, refusing to explain your statements is anti-town, and asking people to come up with their own explanations for your statements is scummy. If they did try to come up with something, then either it'll make sense to them, and they'll agree with you, or it won't, they'll accuse you of craplogic, and you'll just respond that they're trying to strawman you.

[JereIC]

I apologize y'all, I've been busy for the past week, and now that I have time to read, I will have limited access through April 3rd (fucking horrible timing). I should be hunky-dory by next weekend.

[JereIC]

Posting on my phone from the land of limited access.

Fishy, in 433 you say you wouldn't have had reason to vote for Freeko if you scum. First off, wifom, no? Secondly, wouldn't the reason be lynching a townie? Not everything has to be part of an intricate strategy.

Looker, I can't make sense of your 446. Can you clarify?

[JereIC]

I want to take a second pass at the last two-three pages before posting on them and making overall conclusions, but here's some posts I took interest in. This review focuses on DtF and Fishy, but I have some notes on other players that I need to develop before posting.

97: DtF’s claim that he thought the mafia would be other penguins feels forced now. The theme says there are predators after the penguin colony, there are bloody bodies near the water’s edge, and mentions penguins have vision problems to cover for why the town can’t see predators and a hunter in its midst.

101: Fishy basically repeats the conclusions DtF made about Nuwen and Z in 97. However, he says he thought the mafia are predators.

143: Fishy seems to be defending DtF and Z (slip is irrelevant, Z’s overreation is not scummy), says DDD’s vote on Z was scummy, then votes freeko.

185: Fishy going after DDD while still voting for Freeko.

189: DtF agreeing with Fishy on the DDD vote.

212: Fishy joins the DDD wagon.

220: DtF’s post seems very assertive, but I don’t think he’s making a strong point. He says parts of DDD’s posts are nonsense, that he despises “soft” role-claims, and that DDD’s response to pacman’s comment about walls of text was cute.

231: Fishy is telling freeko to respond to DDD’s 225, while still voting for DDD.

234: DtF does the same thing as Fishy in 231.

237: DtF suddenly changes course and accuses DDD of tunneling on freeko.

253: Fishy defending DDD while still voting for him.

271: Fishy now voting for freeko, but based on an argument that he’s either scum or a tunnel-vision townie.

277: I’ve said this before, but I’m really suspicious of HowardRoark’s case against me, starting with this post. On the other hand, it’s hard to be objective about this stuff. See also 284, 285, 293, 294, 296-300, 346-7 (diverting the question to DtF), 349, and 351.

283: DtF uses the same kind of loud but empty arguments he used against DDD in 220.

354: DtF is calling attention to Z’s play. Feels very unlikely that they’re scumbuddies. There wasn’t a lot of suspicion towards Z at the end of day 1, so I doubt DtF would risk calling attention to him just to have his replacement behave better.

390: Don’t like Fishy’s resistance to Nuwen’s plan. If Vig-kun gets blocked, that gives us info too – that the mafia has a roleblocker, and that they used it to prevent a vig kill, either to buy some time for a scumbuddy or making a townie look guilty for a mislynch.

429 and beyond: I haven’t read very closely.

454: We know they’re scum when the mod says so. On an tangential rant, I’m tired of every game of mafia turning into a discussion on the mechanics of mafia. I don't think it's a scum-tell, but talking about how to play distracts from actually playing.

457-8: What makes this game even better is the town are Adelie penguins, the cutest animal possible. Not just in the sense of being the cutest animal in existence, but there is no possible way to make them cuter. Mathematically speaking, they are the global maximum of the cuteness function.

I'm a little surprised that no one has suggested killing us all (DtF, Fishy, and me) and letting mod sort it out. Assuming two of us are scum, then sacrificing a suspicious-looking townie would be worth it. If there's two scum total, then we kill them both and win. If there's three scum total, then we go into the last day with one scum and two or three pro-town players (depending on if we have Vig-kun strike night after next), and it will be easier to find the last scum.

However, if only one of us is scum, and there's three scum total, then killing all three of us screws town. The doc would have to get lucky for the town to win.

[JereIC]

Did... did you just claim scum?

Why wouldn't you just advocate what is supposedly implied by your "plan," which is that both Fishy and I are scum? I mean, you

are

trying to help the town in theory here, right? Which you'd only do if you were town? So if you think there's a decent enough chance that two of the three of us are scum, and you're town acting in the town's interest, then you think that Fishy and I are scum, right? Why not just post your analysis and say that? Did you think you'd engender good will by volunteering to be killed along with us?

I've begun to get the sinking feeling that the active players in this game are, for the most part, townies, and that the serious lurkers are skating by on perfunctory posts while we argue ourselves into the ground. I'm still reasonably happy with my vote on Fishy, but the way he's responding is giving me pause, and the way Netlava came in and wanted to go back in the L-k direction doesn't seem all that useful to me at best. I'll do a lurker round-up soon, possibly as soon as right away since my flight back home is delayed.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. I'm not advocating that plan, although I do think there's a good possibility that Fishy and you are both scum. As I said in my post, I'm surprised no one has suggested it. Thinking about it from a neutral townie's perspective, there's a very good possibility that one of us is scum, and a decent possibility that two of us are. If that neutral townie leans towards the two-out-of-three-are-scum theory, then the plan I described starts to sound like a good option. Not everyone would have thought of it, but the people who would have either have seen a flaw in that plan, don't think more than one of us is scum, or have more information than they're letting on.

Should I give up or should I keep on chasing pavements? Even if it leads nowhere?

Netlava - 1 (Light-kun)
DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)
Looker - 2 (HowardRoark, DraketheFake)

Not Voting - 5 (Jazzmyn, Nuwen, Netlava, JereIC, Looker)

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 484)

[JereIC]

Net, that's a terrible case (in my opinion). Why did my comment to Mizz seem insincere? Why isn't "LK is a troll" a satisfactory conclusion to my observation about his post? How is the present tense more suspicious than the past tense (especially given that other people use it all the time when reviewing other people's posts)? Why is scum more likely to use the phrase "lost all touch with reality"? Why are you uncertain about whether me calling BS on Light is histrionics or not, and what do you mean "[e]specially in context"? Why wouldn't town weight and consider flaws with that plan (or reject it outright if there's a flaw that's obvious to everyone besides me)? Just in general, huh?

DtF, when I want to build a case against you and Fishy I will and you won't have to infer anything. I still believe that Nuwen is right that one of you two are scum. I'm just not sure if you're both scum or not.

[JereIC]

EBWOP: Nuwen believes some of the three of us is/are scum. I agree with her, and further believe that one of you two is scum.

[JereIC]

Unvote; Vote Fishy

I still don't like him. I also really find Jere's last post reads like a GIANT overreaction. Seriously, I highly doubt a town aligned individual should act like that.

How I read:
A: Jere might be scum due to the way he words things...
B: OMFG! I AM NOT SCUM! HOW IS WORDING SCUMMY!? SUPPORT YOUR FACTS WOMAN! (I am too lazy too look up and see if A is or is not a woman. Sorry in advance from the past.)

I think you missed the fact that he voted for me. That is, it's not just that he thinks I might be scum because of the way I word things, it's that of all nine players in the game, he finds me the scummiest and scummy enough to warrant a vote because of the way I word things. Even that wouldn't have been so bad except that he shares your practice of stating conclusions without showing his analysis. I can't even tell what points he actually believes and which ones he's throwing out as trial balloons.

Fishy - why is the kill-em-all plan insane? I'm still open to the possibility that there is a major flaw with it, obvious to everyone else, but I've yet to see anyone spell that out. And I don't remember you responding this way when Nuwen was talking about killing claimed townies a few pages ago.

[JereIC]

Fishy - post 243 on page 10.

L-K - Add me to the list of people who insist on having you follow town's orders. Anything else is anti-town, imo.

[JereIC]

To me, I don't see myself posting such a long post so nicely to what I felt was a hopeless cause. So it seemed like you were padding your posts.

Maybe she looked hopeless in hindsight, but at the time I made those posts I thought she was a quick study who just needed some help on how to play effectively.

It's not satisfactory because I would accompany such a conclusion with some sort of conclusion about scumminess. Trolling for the sake of trolling would be a strange occurrence in mafia.

Trolling is anti-town, but not necessarily scummy. Calling it out is the same thing as calling out somebody for lurking or posting conclusions without rationale.

Because it's more dramatic, whereas the past tense is more accurate. The present tense suggests that whatever is being referred to is a continuing repeat occurrence. Past tense is like calling it like it is. This specifically applies to that quote I quoted btw.

I don't mean to be a jackass, but you wrote this paragraph all in the present tense.

I was suggesting that the rest of your post does not follow. You posted that Light's post is pure BS, an emphatic statement. The rest of your post was drawn up rather weakly. I was expecting a more emphatic follow-up to accompany such an emphatic accusation.

Well, if you think my case against LK was weak that's your problem, not mine.

Out of jackass mode, I caught a number of inconsistencies in LK's story, which indicated he was lying, which indicated he was scum. If you think that was a weak case, then you should explain why those inconsistencies weren't such a big deal.

Suggesting yourself as a possible lynch target just seems counterintuitive.

Meaning you were suspicious of the paragraph where I was describing the advantages of plan. That would be where most people could reasonably believe that I was suggesting myself as a lynch target. However, you didn't quote that part. You quoted the part where I pointed out a major flaw in it, and said a townie wouldn't consider "this." Your current explanation doesn't match your previous behavior, so either you were lying then or are lying now.

[JereIC]

Net - I owe you an apology for being a jackass yesterday. However, your case against me still needs some fleshing out before I'm going to put a lot of effort into defending myself again. I'm honestly just not sure what you said in your last post.

LK - I think Fishy is becoming more scummy by default. He hasn't said anything to hang himself, but his defense hasn't been good, and he had done a poor job explaining why he changed his mind from being against ordering your kills to being for it. I want to see how he responds to Nuwen's post that I pointed out before deciding whether or not to vote for him. On a related note, I think DtF is acting oddly. Sometimes he's saying that the three of us are townies caught up in a flawed voting pattern analysis, other times he seems to be building cases against me and Fishy.

Re: the plan I talked about - the reason I brought it up is I anticipated somebody suggesting it, and was actually putting a bit of effort into coming up with counter arguments. When no one did, I really was surprised and confused.

[JereIC]

Fishy - post 243 on page 10.

What? Post 243 is Nuwen discussing policy lynching.[/b]

I dont like this. This implies that on a different game day [DDD] would potentially be the right lynch? If you are the incorrect lynch one day, how could you not be the correct lynch another day?

Yes. If there are limited vanilla roles in a game (and the first day's lynch hit town), lynching claimed vanillas on day 2 and/or 3 and then massclaiming can out some, if not all, scum buddies. If the only remaining players are power roles, scum, or have third party alignments, scum are left with few options to claim - most scum will have spoiled their claim options at this point too.

Net - I really do find your whole post confusing. You've done a good job of explaining the troll thing, but here's what I'm still confused about:
- Just saying something "specifically applies" isn't a defense. Your argument is that the present tense is "more dramatic, whereas the past tense is more accurate." If that's the argument you're making, then everyone should write in the present tense whenever possible because it's more accurate. Therefore, when you wrote that argument in the present tense, I went back and realized that it could have been written in the past tense and still made sense, like this: "Because it made your post more dramatic, whereas the past tense would have been more accurate." Therefore it seemed hypocritical to attack me for using the present tense in my posts.
- I just don't see the problem with my tone. I accused the guy of poorly fabricating his story - that is, his story was pure BS.
- And no, the lying thing was part of me being a jackass yesterday. But I may go back to it later if you can't explain your comments. You quoted the part of my post where I was saying the kill-em-all plan had a big flaw and said that you didn't see a townie considering that. Then when I asked you to explain it, you said you thought it was counter intuitive for a townie to suggest himself as a lynch. But that's exactly what I wasn't doing in the sentence you quoted. So, right now it looks like you're completely reversing your rationale and not being upfront about it, which looks less than truthful.

HR, I think you're not acknowledging the basic point - LK is basically a second lynch (assuming he actually does what we tell him to do) so saying we shouldn't use him is like saying we should vote no lynch. Also, your math isn't quite right. If we lynch town today, and LK vigs scum tonight, it's not exactly LyLo. On Day 3 we could lynch town, and if LK manages to vig scum Night 3, we go into Day 4 with two townies and one scum. If LK has survived to that point, it's actually guaranteed draw or town win (assuming he's not an SK).

[JereIC]

Jere:

As described before:

1 SK V 1 Town V 1 scum
=town win unless SK really likes scum or scum really likes sk OR they decide to go for a happily ever after ending, which is kind of cool, actually.
So, if lylo with a kill ability other than mafia, town wins/draws always.

Also, we lynch scum, I don't really see the harm in shooting since the benefit outweighs the risk, but whatever.

That's assuming you get exposed as the SK before Day 4. If you aren't exposed, then you could just help the townie lynch the scum, kill the townie in endgame, and cackle maniacally into the night, gloating all along about how you have an opposible thumb and we don't.

Of course, chances are pretty low that you'll survive all the way to Day 4 having to be the vig, but still, the prisoner's dillema situation isn't exactly applicable here.

saying we shouldn't use him is like saying we should vote no lynch. {snip} (assuming he's not an SK)

I strongly disagree; this is a lot different than a no lynch. SKs are required to attempt to kill. By having him not kill tonight, we know if he is SK or Vig. That's why I believe having him not shoot tonight is the optimal play. I will have to complete my scenario tree and see something major for me to change my point of view. (I won't post it unless I find something of major interest or someone requests it.)

I'm confused. In 545 you present a case that no matter what happens, having LK kill tonight is more likely to hurt town than help. My counter argument is that having him follow town's kill order is like having a second lynch. Where does the risk of him being an SK fit in? Or are you abandoning the argument you made in 545? Also, isn't that Fishy's argument?

If you don't visit the bad neighborhoods, the bad neighborhoods are going to visit you.

DraketheFake - 1 (FishytheFish)
JereIC - 1 (Netlava)
FishytheFish - 1 (Light-kun)
Light-kun - 1 (DraketheFake)

Not Voting - 5 (Jazzmyn, Nuwen, JereIC, Looker, HowardRoark)

9 alive, 5 to lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 554)

[JereIC]

Lk's the killer whale, who killed DDD, who was found dead with a single red dot on his chest. If you're not going to bother keeping your lies straight, don't bother wasting our time with them.

Vote: Light-kun

[JereIC]

A good part of my reason for wanting species claim was to see whether or not L-k claimed human (or at least something which can hold a gun), which seems his likely species.

HR, DtF, were you pushing LK to claim species for the same reason?

Unvote

while I give Fishy's post some thought.

[JereIC]

@JereIC: Any comments on my post 554?

HR, DtF, were you pushing LK to claim species for the same reason?

(bold added to the quote for response emphasis)

I find Fishythefish's idea of species claiming when role claiming interesting.

I am not sure how much we can get out of it, but it could prove to be useful.

I saw that, but "interesting" is kind of vague and uncommitted. Were you just agreeing with DtF and Fishy for the sake of blending in?

[JereIC]

I saw that, but "interesting" is kind of vague and uncommitted. Were you just agreeing with DtF and Fishy for the sake of blending in?

Maybe because it was made in uncertainty (please refer to bolded portion again). Perhaps you'd like to make another weak argument based on my uncertainty of Fishythefish's statement that Light-kun's species claim is horse crap. "blending in" . . . really? I suppose that when I voted for freeko I was also attempting to be "blending in" as well. That is weak.

Ok, so let’s take that as a denial of the argument that you were just blending in. Then is it correct to say that you saw some possible advantage, despite the uncertainty, to having LK claim a species?

Overall, your response is misrepresentation of my "no shoot" case. Other than "having a second lynch" is there some reason that you believe that it would be beneficial for the town to direct Light-kun to shoot tonight? Some of us have reservations (based on his attitude) that he will even follow our instructions. If he is truly town aligned, he will obey a no shoot order, thus proving himself and keeping the risk/reward to our advantage.

Telling him to not shoot is a waste of time. If he doesn’t follow directions, then we have him killing somebody on his own initiative, which could mean he’s an SK, or it could mean he’s a vig who thinks he’s smarter than us. If he does follow directions, he might be a vig (who will now be of very limited use to us) or he might be an SK who doesn’t have to kill every night, or who actually was smarter than us and picked the same target as the doc. The test you propose just doesn’t tell us anything. On the other hand, if we have the town come to an agreement on who to kill, then if LK doesn’t follow directions it’s basically as if we had used your test. If he does follow directions, then we have all the advantages of a second lynch, including information about who advocated for the kill.

This is a horrible post. I am “becoming more scummy by default”? What does this even mean? My defence of what hasn’t been good? It is very unclear why you find me scummy. I don’t think that the claim that I haven’t explained why I changed my mind is a reasonable one, as discussed above. All in all, it looks like you want to say that you are suspicious of me without providing any actual reasons.
Being surprised and confused about no-one bringing up this plan does not explain why you brought it up.

Blame LK. He asked my opinion of you, and I wanted to focus on other stuff, so I just gave him my quick thoughts without spending a lot of time on the analysis. “More scummy by default” is meant to say that other people have decent cases against you, and you haven’t defended yourself against them well. Your defense of yourself hasn’t been good. If I vote for you at a later date, I will make it clear why.

Also, how’d it take you five posts to realize I hadn’t responded to this?

I meant that the present tense isn't a general case. So your comment about me using the present tense doesn't mean anything.

Ok, if you had to state a rule for when the present tense is scummy, what would that rule be?

So you lied when you accused me of lying?

No, I just didn’t consider the possibility that I misunderstood what you were saying. But there is still an inconsistency that you haven’t explained yet.

Do you think LK is scum or SK?

All I know is that post 555 appears to be an incredible lie. I don't believe that LK is a killer whale with a gun to shoot people tucked under his blubber.

[JereIC]

Apologies for the inactivity. I want to make a larger comment, but that's probably going to have to wait for lunch or maybe sometime this evening.

[JereIC]

No, I just didn’t consider the possibility that I misunderstood what you were saying. But there is still an inconsistency that you haven’t explained yet.

What inconsistency is that?

You quoted the part of my kill-'em-all plan discussion where I said there was a big risk that there was only one scum in the group, so killing us all would screw town, and said a townie wouldn't consider "this". Later, you said that a pro-town wouldn't suggest himself as a lynch target. That explanation seems inconsistent with the part you quoted - how do you get from me criticizing the plan to me suggesting myself as a lynch target?

Ok, if you had to state a rule for when the present tense is scummy, what would that rule be?

I was specifically referring to this:
> DDD seems to be constantly reversing his position and twisting his own words in response to anyone accusing him of saying something odd.
Imo, I believe town would say something like, "DDD has reversed his position" instead. That is more akin to calling it like it is without the exaggeration. The way you worded it is less accurate because it suggests a continuing occurrence.

As far as I'm concerned, it was a continuing occurence. I highlighted several posts by DDD in which he seemed to twist his words or reverse his position, and I didn't notice him stop doing it until after I made that post. I know that past performance isn't a guarentee of future actions, but c'mon.

I want to address the first point last because it's my main case against Fishy.

All I know is that post 555 appears to be an incredible lie. I don't believe that LK is a killer whale with a gun to shoot people tucked under his blubber.

But I think there must be some opinion on which one he is since it makes a difference whether to lynch him or not.

First, the reason I think LK is lying is not just that it doesn't make sense flavor-wise. I think if he was actually claiming killer whale, he would have accounted for the flavor in his post (something like, "I'm a killer whale, not sure why the mod has me crawling onto land and punching a single hole in DDD.") He's also hinted before that he has a gun (post 484), so the killer whale claim now isn't credible.

Now, just because he lied doesn't mean he's scum. If he were scum, lying about his animal risks a counter-claim and eventual lynch, so he's only take that risk if his animal was really scummy-sounding and he's claim an animal that's cute and harmless, or at the very least doesn't eat penguins. So he's up to something with his claim, about which I have theories that I can throw out there if anyone wants, but overall it seems pro-town.

So, here's why I find Fishy (and, to an extent, DoctheFake) scummy. Their rationale for pushing LK to claim is that they thought he'd screw up, and then they could push for his lynch. That's preposterous. LK's lie was clumsy, but no one could have reasonably anticipated a massive disconnect between the flavor and his actual claim. Therefore, their post hoc justification strikes me as opportunistic, especially since they've

both

backed down when other people started criticizing it. In particular, Fishy's claim that he unvoted LK because LK promised not to kill tonight doesn't make sense. You think the guy's lying about his species in a scummy way, but he's telling the truth about what he's going to do tonight?

I intend to hammer, and I'd like a claim from Fishy.

[JereIC]

Net - I think LK is pro-town. Yes, I brought up the up the kill-'em-all plan. You quoted the part where I tore it down. Why?

First off, d'oh about you unvoting LK. My bad.

"Flavour is not allowed to have any grand impact on the game."
Well... we know that flavour is bound to have a slight impact on this one. For example, DtF claimed Emperor Penguin. Now, the scum

could

have that role- but I doubt it as they are predators. DtF

could

have fakeclaimed Emperor Penguin as scum, but that's a very famous species of penguin. The chances of a counterclaim would be unacceptably high. So in my opinion his claim is made more believable by the species claim. In a similar way, yours in made less by a species claim which doesn't fit your kill method.

The other message to take away is that the connection between species and claims is going to be pretty squishy. The Krill-commuter link wasn't terribly obvious, but there it was. Doc-Emperor Penguin also wouldn't be terribly obvious if it's true. I think DtF is telling the truth about his species. However, he could be mafia, and his backstory is that he's trying to push the little Adelie penguins out. Considering how squishy the connection is, there's really not a lot of obvious reasons to lie about your species. That's why I find this argument:

On asking for species claims: L-k shot someone. The obvious read on this is "man with a gun". The obvious read on "man with a gun" is serial killer. I certainly thought there was a possibility that L-k would not want to claim a species for which "serial killer" made the most sense. In this case, he was very likely to claim a false species. Where is the ridiculous leap of logic you suggest? Once you start thinking about species, and thinking about the only claimed person, this is not a big step.
Also, it's pretty hard to see how this boast of this being my plan all along would be a scum move; outing L-k does not gain me town points, as L-k's lynch would be at least as good for the scum as the town.

unconvincing. In general, you can pick any species, make up any role, and if anyone questions you about it, point to Krill-commuter as precedent that the roles and species don't make a whole lot of sense. So, when somebody is asked to claim their species, they have two options: claim truthfully, and cite to Krill-commuter if it doesn't make sense, or lie, and risk being counterclaimed and lynched. Because of that, I think it's unreasonable to expect anyone to lie about their species when you're pushing for them to claim. I do think LK is lying, although I didn't expect him to (especially since he'd already hinted that he had a gun), but that's because he's got a plan, much like the Cylons.

Jere: a while back you said that you found me scummy because my defences were weak. When I asked about this, you said, quite reasonably, that this were your immediate thoughts after asked, and that you would expand if voting for me. Well, the time has come for you to explain, if this is part of your rationale for being close to hammering.

Here's what I saw, and my reaction to it:

• Your DDD to freeko vote switch wasn’t scummy, because both wagons were equally viable at the point you switched. As you later acknowledged, it was pretty obvious that the freeko bandwagon was gaining steam while the DDD one was losing steam.
  
• Having LK not kill tonight will test his claim. As I’ve said before, I don’t think it’s a good test of his claim because if he’s an SK, he might be one who doesn’t have to kill every night.
  
• The inconsistency of you first accepting LK’s claim, and later wanting to test it, is not scummy because… I’m actually not sure what defense you were trying to make. But the only good motive I can see for asking for LK to confirm his vig claim (with no kill tonight and the species claim) is that something happened that made you more suspicious of him. What was that? The obvious scummy motive was that you expected him to claim human with a gun, and were planning to get him lynched on flavor.

Also, never saw you respond to my point about Nuwen’s 243. If there's anything I missed, please point it out and I owe it to you to make a counter argument.

Since Looker unvoted, I feel ok about this, and it helps me get over my crippling addiction to hammers, which HR pointed out:

Vote: FishytheFish

[JereIC]

Fishy-

• If somebody has a species that is so scummy they can't make it look pro-town in a claim, they're not going to pick an animal that hunts, kills, and eats penguins. Even if you expected LK to claim something other than human with a gun, you should have suspected something else was going on when he claimed killer whale.
  
• In my experience, SKs usually have the option to not kill. But I wasn't on the site from 2006-08, so things may have changed in that time.
  
• The point of 243 is that you called the kill-'em-all plan crazy, but didn't similarly criticize Nuwen's discussion of killing claimed townies.
  
• Don't try to pin another person's vote on me. I'm only responsible for my sober vote, and I wouldn't be voting for you if I didn't think you were scum.

Net- To make my position clearer, I think LK is pro-town, and is clumsily trying a lie that he thinks will expose scum. I think it's worked to an extent. With respect to the part of the kill-'em-all discussion you quoted, that actually makes sense. I'll concede the point.

[JereIC]

- An interesting point on the killer whale. I had merely been thinking of it as something that couldn't hold a gun. But I don't quite understand- you thought L-k was lying when he claimed his species, as did I. This discussion is about whether it's plausible I predicted this. His actual claim isn't all that relevant.

It's relevant because your case seems manufactured. Let's say you are pro-town, and suspect LK of being anti-town. You press him to claim species. Your theory is that if he is anti-town, he will have a bad-sounding species, and so may claim a cuter-sounding species. Therefore, you see two possibilities: (1) he claims to be a harmless species, in which case you press the case because he clearly isn't harmless, or (2) he claims to be a human hunter, in which case he hasn't lied and you have to press him another way. Then, when LK went for "(3) killer whale," you would have been surprised: his claim doesn't fit into either course you anticipated, so you can't go after him yet, but you can't just move onto to a different test. In this case you would have pressed him on his claim, and tried to figure out if he was joking, had unusual flavor, was a particularly ballsy scum, or something else.

In the real world, you said we should lynch him (although maybe not immediately). You're not behaving like the pro-town player in my hypothetical situation, which means you either have different motives (such as neutralizing an anti-mafia player with killing ability) or extra information (like you're a cop/sk-hunter and investigated LK last night). You haven't dropped any hints about being a cop, so it's more likely you have motives that aren't those of a pro-town player.

Some questions for Jere:

- What are the motives of the 4 players voting for me?

Not sure. But I lean towards them all being pro-town.

- All 4 of the other players attacking me are either unable to participate fully at the moment or consistently refuse to explain their reasons for voting me. Are you ready for my lynch under these conditions?

We're never going to have perfect lynch conditions, but with the expection of Looker, everyone has presented a case against you and none of them seem particularly scummy, so it's good enough. That said, I wouldn't be ready to lynch if we were in a LyLo situation.

- Who are my likely scumpartners? Bear in mind that if even one of the players attacking me was not, my lynch would be pretty unlikely, instead of extremely likely (as the other three players have all said they think me town). Netlava sits back and pushes a case which is getting no support. DtF and Howard are vocal in their support for a likely lynchee, having been suspicious of me earlier in the day- a huge risk if we were scumpartners.

I'm pretty sure DtF is scum. His doc claim doesn't make a lot sense if he's scum, but it makes way less sense if he's actually the doc or a townie. I can't help but notice that you support his doc claim, and seem to be encouraging the real doc to expose himself when you say "I would think that a doctor swapping his life for a scum's would be good for the town." HR is my third guess, mostly because he seems to support your arguments a lot, and how quickly he backed down from his abortive case against me earlier. Net strikes me as pro-town: his case against me and for you may be weak, but I think he honestly believes it.

- What do you think of my point that it seems unlikely that I was trying to get L-k lynched based on flavour grounds, given that I didn’t try to get L-k lynched based on flavour grounds?
- Where is the inconsistency in my treatment of L-k’s claim?

Your argument was basically LK is obvSK because his flavor didn't make sense, but we shouldn't lynch him yet because letting him kill for another night or two would increase town's chance of success. Then you said maybe we should lynch him tonight, but he shouldn't be the automatic lynch. Then that you weren't sure whether flavor was such a great way of finding scum. Then you said we shouldn't lynch him because he promised to not shoot tonight. I chalk it up to a mixture of distancing (don't want to jump on the same bandwagon as DtF, at least not at first), backtracking from the case when you saw it wasn't succeeding, and trying to still make him less effective by having him promise not to shoot tonight.

Net - in a nutshell, scum has no incentive to claim a species that is more dangerous than they actually are, so LK's claim of being a killer whale when it's not likely he is makes him seem pro-town. The gambit idea is based on his previous claims that he was intentionally provoking people to measure their response. My theory is he guessed that mafia would be killer whales, so when he was pressed for a species claim, he said killer whale, expecting the mafia (killer whales) to realize he was lying and jump all over him, while townies would be baffled.

[JereIC]

Mod: If we had a deadline, what would be your policy on extensions?

I'd be willing to grant one, if it was absolutely necessary.

[JereIC]

I never wanted to lynch L-k

Which doesn't address the vig-neuter argument, the distancing argument, or...

I now believe L-k is a serial killer.

Whether this makes him the automatic lynch or not is different.

…

According to these calculations, lynching L-k will never be right until the scum are gone, which is rather surprising. Perhaps my maths is wrong?

It is possible we have some serious PRs who are going to start finding scum soon. This seriously improves our odds if we lynch L-k, and has less effect on the other scenario. However, if my maths is right I think that the improvement from not lynching L-k in the random scenario is sufficient to justify leaving him alive.

I got a little carried away there, and

the conclusion that we should definitely not lynch L-k is too strong.

It does illustrate that killing a known SK is not automatically good, particularly if we have other strong suspects and/or we think he is going to shoot scum.

L-k's species claim is very likely false. L-k is therefore very likely SK.

This means that the argument that we should not lynch L-k in order to find out his alignment is no longer relevant

.

Well, either way, I still support not lynching L-k today,

as long as he agrees not to kill tonight

(or whatever else we say- but to test his claim no kill looks much the most sensible).

The people who are urging leaving L-k alive based on being able to lynch him if he disobeys us haven't thought about the numbers.

Unless we are exceptionally lucky (ie. lynch scum AND shoot scum),

we won't be able to kill L-k tomorrow without handing the game to the scum

.

I

no longer

want L-k lynched, following his statement that he will not shoot. On the other hand, if it is him or me there are no prizes for guessing what I will choose.

Net - forgot to mention in my last post, I did vote for LK, but unvoted him about two hours later when I had time to think about it.

[JereIC]

EBWOP: Emphasis in Fishy's quotes added.

[JereIC]

Fish, you didn't acknowledge the post where you said you "no longer want L-k lynched." If you no longer want something, it implies that at some point you did want it.

But that's all semantics. It's just not credible that you moved from thinking LK was the SK and wanting to keep him alive so that he could keep killing, to that he might not be the SK and shouldn't kill tonight as a test (a lame test, as I've pointed out). It feels a lot more like you, DtF, and HR pushed LK to claim species (expecting to be able to follow up with your "man with a gun = SK" argument), then when LK lied wanted to promote the LK lynch without having your vote on the same guy as DtF, then realized the LK lynch was a mistake and trying to cover your tail.

As for my explanation of LK, I think it's the only sensible explanation. The other two options are
- He's anti-town, and decided instead of claiming the obvious choice of human, going for the even more anti-penguin animal.
- He's really a killer whale, but didn't notice the weirdness when DDD's death scene was posted and joked about being the guy with a nice shiny gun in post 484.

As for why he's not confirming my theory, probably because he's still pretty suspicious of me - you should have noticed that he's already trying to figure out whether the alignment of one of us is indicative of the alignment of the other.

Perhaps you'd care to explain what you think is going on?

HR - as I said before, it makes no sense for the actual doc to claim in DtF's circumstances. A real doc wouldn't think, "Gosh, I don't want to get shot by LK tonight, so I better tell the mafia that I'm the doc!" Granted, it doesn't make much sense for scum to fake-claim doc right now either, but maybe he's trying some sort of Hail Mary pass to expose the doc.

[JereIC]

That piqued my interest. Looker: wut?

[JereIC]

Also gonna announce that I'll be on V/LA from May 2 to May 4.

[JereIC]

During the JereIC/Fishy interaction on 26, I don't like the way JereIC basically posts the blueprint for fakeclaiming, continuing to point to the Krill-Commuter role as the gold standard of flavor not mattering in this game.

But you make the same basic argument (flavor doesn't make sense) to support your Doc = Emperor Penguin claim.

Net- To make my position clearer, I think LK is pro-town, and is clumsily trying a lie that he thinks will expose scum. I think it's worked to an extent. With respect to the part of the kill-'em-all discussion you quoted, that actually makes sense. I'll concede the point.

This is a completely ridiculous backtrack, or else I didn't read carefully enough the first time. More on that in a minute.

It's only a backtrack from my post 557. Since then the worst thing I've said about LK's claim was that it's an "incredible lie."

<JereIC and Fishy quotes cut for brevity>
This is another false dilemma, and one that you sort of admit is one in the very same post. The words "you're not behaving like a pro-town player in my hypothetical situation" should never be used in a serious case.

a) It's not a false dilemma. Fishy said he pushed for LK's species claim because he anticipated LK making a false claim (you did too, btw). There's no way he can argue that he anticipated LK would make a false claim that made LK look even scummier then he did from the flavor. Therefore, the fact that he immediately concluded that LK was anti-town looks opportunistic and scummy.
b) I showed what a pro-town player would do in Fishy's situation. That's the hypothetical. I showed how Fishy acted differently. Showing that he's not acting like a pro-town player is a serious case.

Net strikes me as pro-town: his case against me and for you may be weak, but I think he honestly believes it.

Yeah, this doesn't make a ton of sense either.

Care to explain?

And the problem with your idea that L-k is running some kind of gambit to catch scum is precisely that

you'd think L-k would have gone ahead and mentioned that by now

, since that's the main charge of everything that's happened today. You trying to give him an out like this is unbelievable, and the fact that he hasn't taken it means that you're just plain wrong, and for you to continue to maintain that he's lying BUT pro-town is absurd.

He hasn't refuted it either, and it's clear he's been reading my posts.

[JereIC]

I haven't argued that I thought L-k would make a false claim

that made LK look even scummier than he did from the flavour

.

And no one accused you of that. My case is based on the fact that your motive for pushing for his species claim, then concluding he was the SK (and softly pushing for his lynch) don't make sense if you're pro-town.

(Also, it is absurd to think the Killer Whale looks worse, or as bad, as man with a gun).

Guy with a gun could be a wildlife research who has a gun for self-defense, or a vet who has a gun for euthanasia, or a hunter who's here to hunt albatross or seals. There's lots of not-quite-anti-town possibilities.

Killer whales eat penguins. There's not a lot of flavor wiggle room with that.

I did anticipate L-k would make a false claim- and the type of false claim L-k made has no bearing on this. You misrepresent me.

Ok, why did you anticipate him making a false species claim?

[JereIC]

Howard: Looker always plays like absolute crap. I'm not surprised and I don't support a policy lynch.

So you're not suspicious of her at all? And why so non-chalant about about it?

Fishy, you say that krill=town is the same kind of flavor inconsistency that killer whale=town is. What kind of inconsistency is that, and how is it distinguishable from man=town?

[JereIC]

Only been able to skim so far, so apologies if I screw stuff up. So far it looks like DtF built a huge case against Jazz, then voted LK? Also, Fishy now thinks LK is pro-town?

Jazz is taking her time with that reread, although I can't blame her.

Still can't make heads or tails of Looker or Netlava.

I'll try to post some more tomorrow.

[JereIC]

Fishy- you think the mafia are going to kill LK over the claimed doc?

[JereIC]

Netlava, I know you think I'm scum, but can I ask what you think of Fishy's position(s)?

[JereIC]

For everyone who's on the fence, Fishy's position is that LK is the Serial Killer because flavor matters and a guy with a gun is obviously bad news. LK is obviously a guy with a gun, as seen in the death descriptions and in LK's earlier comment that he had a "nice shiny gun to shoot people with." When LK was forced to claim species, LK thought that flavor mattered and a man with a gun would look anti-town, so he made a false species claim. For the fake species claim, he went with killer whale because the krill=commuter role showed that flavor is BS when species are in the same food chain as penguins. Apparently he thought that because penguins eat krill, it'd be ok for him to claim an animal that ate penguins. That is, he false-claimed because he thought flavor and appearances mattered, but when making the false-claim he wasn't as concerned about appearances and flavor. And LK wasn't concerned about the appearance of a guy with a gun when he said he had a "nice shiny gun to shoot people with."

From this, Fishy concludes we should keep the serial killer alive. At first it's because if the SK keeps killing, town has a better chance of winning since the SK is likely to kill off a mafioso or two. But then he insists that LK not kill tonight, and threatens to vote for LK if he doesn't promise to no-kill tonight. Apparently that was an empty threat, because he later said he never wanted to lynch LK. Now he believes that LK is going to be the mafia's prime target tonight, over the claimed doc, and since LK has promised not to kill tonight, we shouldn't waste our lynch on him today.

Instead, he believes Looker is scum, mostly because of the weak case Looker made against Fishy. For that, I think he has to explain who Looker's scumbuddies could be - Fishy was at L-1 for a looong time until Jazz unvoted, so why didn't a scumbuddy hammer him for the mislynch? If he's assuming all the scum are on his bandwagon already, does that imply he thinks Jazz and I are both scum too, since he thinks LK is the SK?

That's why I'm voting for Fish.

[JereIC]

...and...the fish...is still...alive...

Yeah, he's slippery like some sort of aquatic animal.

BTW, why are you voting for Fishy?

[JereIC]

BTW, why are you voting for Fishy?

Not the kind of question you want to be asking someone you share a wagon with.

Care to expand on that thought?

[JereIC]

Aight.

Vote: Deadline

I don't think we're getting anything else out of this day.

[JereIC]

Care to expand on that thought?

Sure thing.

As a rule of thumb, I like to be on wagons with people who have what I consider to be legitimate and pro-town reasons for voting for the same person as me, even if they aren't necessarily my reasons exactly. I would take it as a bad sign if there were a lot of players voting for a player I was voting for without giving their reasons, the same way that I would naturally be more suspicious of a vote without stated reasons past the RVS.

Know why you don't know Looker's reasons? Because she hasn't posted any reasonable ones. She's deflecting the way a cocky scum would, and Light-kun leaping to her aid here makes me wonder if he didn't also express consternation over her lack of content.

So, you'd suggest that I get off of Fishy's wagon because I don't know why Looker is on it?

[JereIC]

Jazz strikes me as scummier on reread. Her posts have pretty much all been saying she was rereading, posting thoughts on everyone, voting and unvoting fishy, and defending against DtF. Unvoting on May 6 also looks more opportunistic now - she was under pressure from DtF and the Fishy bandwagon was stagnant, so unvoting then looks more like trying to evade suspicion.

It might be time for a mass claim. If we do, we should have DtF or LK choose the first person to claim, and then that person should choose the next to claim, and continue on like that so scum have less of a chance to claim last and claim power roles they know won't be counter claimed.

[JereIC]

The species-only claim idea is smart, I definitely support it.

I don't mind waiting for LK's response to my theory until after we've gotten all the claims in. That said, I don't believe that he didn't see it at all yesterday.

LK, you seem to think tubby is definitely not mafia. Now, while acknowledging that my judgment with scum picks has also been terrible throughout the game, I have to say you don't have a great track record either. You have to explain your opinions now, so please explain why you don't think tubby is scum.

[JereIC]

EBWOP: Species claim of mine: Now or later? (This is at Jere only)

After we've had all the other folks claim.

Wuzzup with the Howard pseudo vote?

[JereIC]

Jazz, you have to pick who goes next too.

[JereIC]

Has anyone noticed that LK STILL has not addressed the killer whale theory? It was mentioned like 1000x times already.

DtF and I explicitly asked him not to until we've had the claims, so he's off the hook for now.

You have to explain your opinions now, so please explain why you don't think tubby is scum.

While we're at it, explain why you think tubby is scum.

I'm not sure if he's scum. But, he might be, and I want to know why LK didn't include him on his suspect list.

I saw your claim. That doesn't mean I can accept it for sure without knowing your alignment.

First off, just because you don't accept his claim doesn't mean you don't have to distinguish your claim from his. How does that even make sense?

Secondly, you said in post 768 that you think DtF is pro-town. If you're not sure of his claim, why don't you lean towards him being scum?

[JereIC]

Did you pick who goes next Net? *waits*

He did it in 795. It was the sentence after he claimed. How did you miss that?

[JereIC]

Adelie Penguin. I guess we don't have to worry about a second round of actual role claims....

[JereIC]

If I had to vote now, it'd be Tubby. In retrospect, his focus on Fishy day 2 looks scummier - and there's not much else from from Tubby himself. However, Nuwen also looks scummy now. Since DtF's doc claim has gone unchallenged, and I'm not about to claim scum, it appears her Fishy-DtF-me analysis was wrong. I could chalk that up to human error, but so few suspects left it seems more likely she was trying to divert our attention (and was doing it pretty well, actually).

[JereIC]

Blah, I honestly thought I was onto something there with the LK-Human theory. Guess it doesn't matter now, though.

That said, I don't trust LK completely. While I think it's more likely than not that he's a Vig, he could be the SK, or he could be mafia and he or one of his scumbuddies had a one-shot kill ability. DDD was still an unlikely mafia kill, so the one-shot kill theory is the least likely of the three, but it is something to consider. Ideally, we'll structure our lynches and kills so that we have a chance to lynch LK after all the mafia are dead, if necessary.

As I said, I think tubby is most likely to be scum, and his latest post suggesting everyone is probably town hasn't dissuaded me. Jazz is second on my list for the reasons I stated earlier, and I don't have anything to add until she starts posting again. Of HR and Netlava, I'd rate them a tie. HR's exhaustive posts are nice, but he made the extremely WIFOM-y post about DtF in 770. On the other hand, Net hasn't posted much of substance, except for his seemingly shifty position on why he claimed "penguin" and whether LK is a vig or not. If Jazz turns out to be mafia, though, I'd probably rate Net higher - Nuwen's interactions with Zeenon seem a lot less confrontational than her interaction with Mizz.mafia, so if Nuwen was mafia, it's a lot more likely that Zee was than Mizz.

[JereIC]

If

tubby, who is totally not Jazz,

turns out to be mafia, though, I'd probably rate Net higher - blah blah blah.

EBWO self-quoting.

I don't think it's time for anyone to vote - even if you're 100% sure that someone is scum, we need to figure out whether we should direct LK to kill someone tonight.

[JereIC]

Huh. Ugh. I don't believe there's any way that the species/role deviated for your role specifically. I think you're probably a scum role cop who wasn't smart enough to try and fake a different species. Or just a garden variety scum trying to pull one over. This, of course, will send us to WIFOM hell over whether JereIC is actually a townie or not.

Why do you think he's a role cop at all? We just mass claimed, so it's not that hard to make up a role-cop claim. Tubby's just obvscum in my book - we can deal with the WIFOM hell tomorrow.

I need to go over HR's math, but he may be right that having LK kill now doesn't benefit the town. If I get the same result, I'm just going to vote tubby - may the penguin gods have mercy on his soul.

[JereIC]

I'm here and reading, I'm just not sure quite how to proceed yet because you're all acting scummy.

DtF- don't like his stunt with voting for Jazz then claiming to watch the thread like a hawk.

Tubby- don't like his supremely BS role claim, and how suspect Nuwen is looking in hindsight.

HR- don't like his rabid search for breadcrumbs to support Tubby's BS claim.

Netlava- don't like his prior case against me, shifty positions, and bizarre interaction with DtF earlier.

The Replacement- don't like that you replaced Jazz, who was scummy for reasons I've stated previously.

Light-kun- don't like that I still can't trust you. Your killer whale claim is starting to bother me again.

So, in short, I hope you all die, leaving the sole survivor, and therefore the winner.

[JereIC]

Just to be clear, the "hope you all die" bit was written with tongue firmly in cheek. I apologize if there was any confusion.

I've thought about this some more, and while I have nagging doubts about LK and Netlava, I just can't see any way in which Tubby is pro-town. As I've said, Nuwen's vote analysis seems a lot more like a diversion than a good faith now that Fishy is a known townie and DtF is an un-counter-claimed doc. After he replaced, his votes for Fishy were poorly explained. Today, his claim is just unbelievable. I have to admit, I'm also leaning towards HR being scum over Netlava now.

Vote: Tubby

BTW, I'd advise against LK killing tonight - it doesn't really help us (the best case scenario is that Day 5 we can no lynch and still win) and could end up costing us the game (worst case scenario is we lynch successfully today but lose when LK kills a townie).

[JereIC]

DtF- don't like his stunt with voting for Jazz then claiming to watch the thread like a hawk.

When did I do this?

Crap, that was HR. Which doesn't make sense with him trying to save Tubby's claim later. I gotta think about this some more.

Unvote

[JereIC]

To clarify: I still heavily suspect Jazzmyn and Netlava as scum. Howard is my other guess.

Since it won't matter tonight, I WILL be shooting one of my suspects tonight. Also, Tubby isn't number 1 on my scum list:

Percentages:
Netlava: 45%
Tubby: 39%
Jazzmyn: 35%
Howard: 34%

Sorry Howard, but scum look good (from my perspective), so I doubt a mafiaoso would replace out right now, so Jazz is almost as likely to be scum as you. Netlava I feel has been active lurking most the game where as Tubby contributed. His claim, however, looks like complete bullshit, and I know that I shouldn't buy into flavor this much (I don't...) I just don't see two different roles being the same species. I'm going with hence my vote.

At the moment Tubby and Net are voting for each other, so it's unlikely they're both mafia. If scum are really one mislynch away from victory in the Antarctic, it's more likely they'd be pushing for the mislynch rather than bussing each other.

Which makes Howard's earlier hawk-vote for Tubby a conundrum.

[JereIC]

Actually, if I were mafia (since that is the one thing I'm obviously not), mafia voting each other wouldn't be a bad move because it: Distances AND to win, you just change your vote to another person via bandwagon, other person changes their vote and this is all done in one post (unvote/vote), so there really isn't a disadvantage. It's possible the mafia discussed that town would definitely suspect 1 or 2/3 of them and they want us to be confused on the last 2/3 people. I think that this is all a bit of speculation though.

Actually, it might also be that he set the vote as a trap, figuring that if a townie stopped by and voted tubby he could unvote and claim the townie was trying to pull a speedlynch.

I'm still against LK killing tonight. Unfortunately, having him not kill last night screwed up the math, and we've got basically no advantage to having him kill tonight. Say there's three scum, and we lynch one of them today. If LK kills a townie tonight, we lose. If he kills scum tonight, we go into Day 4 with three pro-town players and one scum. At that point, we can lynch the last scum (yay), no lynch to narrow down the options in Day 5 (spoiler alert: they kill LK), or mislynch and hope LK saves us by killing the last scum Night 4. That is, if LK shoots right, we basically buy ourselves one mislynch in Day 4. If he shoots wrong, game over man. Do you trust a guy with a giant flipper instead of a hand to shoot right?

I'm ready to hammer Tubby as soon as LK gives us some more info on his plans tonight.

[JereIC]

*baited breath*

A fish pun, Dr. Fake?

[JereIC]

LK, you said yesterday you'd kill Replacement or Net tonight. Why are they both still alive?

[JereIC]

I didn't kill. After doing the math, I found it too risky to shoot even with a scum flip. BBIAM for a further post.

Aight, that makes sense. For the record, if you had come to this conclusion yesterday, I would have hammered tubby in 888.

Off the top of my head, the most major point again JereIC was that he called me a liar while not necessarily being suspicious of me. Which is inconsistent, as calling someone a liar involves being suspicious of them in this game.

In what post did I call you a liar?

[JereIC]

Your current explanation doesn't match your previous behavior, so either you were lying then or are lying now.

Huh? Are you calling me a liar??

I think this is the most important part. Accusing someone of lying is a pretty hefty accusation, something that would definitely be accompanied by a vote or at least some sort of comment about alignment.

- And no, the lying thing was part of me being a jackass yesterday.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Yeah, I did accuse you of lying, and when I did I was actually very suspicious of you. However, as I reread your posts I started leaning towards me misunderstanding you, meaning you weren't necessarily lying, and I became less suspicious of you. Basically, when I thought you were lying in your case against me, I was suspicious of you.

Right now I'm leaning towards voting for Howard. He tried incredibly hard to support Tubby's claim and supported a Net bandwagon (with Tubby) until suddenly and with little explanation hammering Tubby. As I said earlier, his early vote for tubby is weird, but I think you can find a scummy explanation for it pretty easily.

[JereIC]

HR, so are you thinking Net was one of Tubby's scumbuddies? If so, do you think there's a third, and who would it be?

[JereIC]

I know that you are willing to vote me now, so who are you thinking for a third?

I honestly don't know now. Replacement seems like the obvious choice for third, mostly by process of elimination, but you two have been pretty clear that you're suspicious of each other. That might be distancing or bussing, but I still think scum would be going for the mislynch/win rather than bussing each other now. On the other hand, LK's mostly useless posts today (and most of yesterday... and the rest of the game) and his continuing implicit insistence that you're totally pro-town seems suspect. Also, I am uncomfortable with his killer whale sniper claim. He may have been scum all along, but with a 1-shot night kill ability, although the DDD kill doesn't make sense if he's mafia. Oddly enough, Netlava is now the least scummy (other than me), but I could see him as scum too. To summarize, I think you're obvscum, and I'll have to wait for the night-kill tonight to figure out who the 3rd scum is.

Anyway,

Vote: HowardRoark

[JereIC]

tubby216 was very adamant about Light-kun being a Vig. Based on the fact that N1 was the only duel-death night . . . that pretty much clears him. That's why I expect some better play out him to actually help find the scum.

Yeah, but if LK was Tubby's scum-buddy, would you expect him to stab LK in the back? Having two kills on night one and never again actually supports the theory that LK (or another member of the mafia) had a one-shot extra night kill. If there had been another extra night kill it'd shoot that theory down. Admittedly, there wasn't a good opportunity for LK to make another night kill.

The major piece of evidence against LK being scum is that DDD was an unlikely kill for the mafia. A lot of people were pretty suspicious of DDD by the end of Day 1, so he would have been an easy lynch target, and of more value to the mafia alive than dead. However, it might be that Nuwen wanted DDD dead and confirmed town so that she could throw out her Fishy-DtF-Me vote analysis diversion, and so pushed the one-shot killer mafioso to kill DDD night one. It's far fetched, and I don't have anything to support that theory, but it's not inconsistent with anything that's happened in the game so far.

Yes, he has been quite useless. However, he has not constantly called me town (especially not "totally").

I exaggerated, but in one of his posts yesterday he did say he ruled you out as a suspect, and today he's said everyone except he and you are scum.

You have to be pretty sure of yourself that you'll still be alive tomorrow if you're relying on that helping you find the third scum. I also don't like the premise of looking at night kills as a way to analyze or deduce who is scum. I don't think doing so is very reliable.

I was thinking more in the sense that it'll eliminate suspects. Somebody's gotta die, and we can rule them out as scum tomorrow. As for assuming I'll live, I do think there's better than chance odds that I'll survive the night, since at least a few people have expressed suspicions of me. More basically, unless we want LK to kill somebody tonight, we're going to go after the third mafioso (if there is one) tomorrow. If I'm going to contribute tomorrow, it means I have to be alive tomorrow, so for the purpose of analysis I assume I'll survive. Considering the possibility of my death wouldn't change my decision, since I won't have a chance to act differently if I get killed tonight.

[JereIC]

EBWOP: Forgot that LK was on Tubby's BW early on, which is actually a lot stronger evidence that he's not mafia aligned. No easy way to explain that, either.

[JereIC]

Vote JereIC

What the hell, LK?

[JereIC]

I don't know what to say to you right now, JereIC. Is it possible that Light-kun is a scum 1-shot vig? Yes.

Yeah, but if LK was Tubby's scum-buddy, would you expect him to stab LK in the back?

How about the fact that he "confirmed" you? This is a whole can of WIFOM that I don't even want to open. It's been cracked and it smells

Actually, the fact that LK was on tubby's wagon early on discredits the 1-shot mafia vig theory pretty well. I can see scum coming in to hammer Tubby after it was clear he was going to get lynched, but it's unlikely they would lead the charge.

As for Tubby's investigations, I've never claimed that he "confirmed" me. I had already made it clear I was a townie with in my species claim, and LK had already made his vig claim, so it's entirely possible that Tubby didn't investigate either of us. As you said, it's a can of WIFOM, which I would avoid but you seem eager to open.

tubby216 had to use Light-kun as an investigation choice. 1) His night actions. 2) Nuwen's good breadcrumb.

It makes sense to use a partner as a "second investigation" to call town. JereIC voted and unvoted tubby216 quickly yesterday (868, 870), but was voteless at day's end.

To make it absolutely clear, I supported Tubby's wagon early. In 818 and 829 I said he was my top suspect (this was before his role-cop claim), and in 844 I called him obvscum (after his claim). During this time, you were saying Net was your top suspect and Jazz was your second, and searched for breadcrumbs to try to save Tubby's claim. Your final vote to hammer Tubby still hasn't been explained very well ("gg scum" is a tell?).

[JereIC]

I think the scum team is Net+JereIC.

I mean, Net has a case on Jere for a long time and then votes Howard as his scum partner?

Lame.

So, because Net is acting scummy, you vote for me? Brilliant.

[JereIC]

You've been scummier for longer.
The case against you is more valid.

So, what happened to your "case" again Jazz/Replacement, if I may ask?

[JereIC]

If your case against me is just opinion, then in my defense, I disagree. I await your rebuttal.

MOD:

We probably need a prod for The Replacement, maybe Howard and Netlava too.

That is probably a good idea. Discussion has stalled. I will prod people later today, if they need to be.

[JereIC]

Heh, maybe I shoulnd't have asked for a prod after all. Gratz scum, y'all deserve this one.

[JereIC]

That was a lot of fun. I mean, any game involving penguins will be fun, but the excellent modding made it a lot of that fun.

Like I said, I think scum did a good job of throwing us all off and pitting us against each other. I'll have to read that QuickTopic over the weekend to see what y'all were thinking, though.

@LK, sorry for being a primo jackass towards you at the end - probably didn't help your play.